← CRYPTO 101
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- [00:00]
TiVo
Foreign.
- [00:10]
Brendan
Welcome back to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's happening in the great world of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency, from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to, and then we bring it to you completely for free in under an hour. So welcome back, everyone. It's good to have all of you here. You know, we are kicking off September strong. This year has absolutely flown by. I mean, it's crazy. And we've also seen a lot of volatility. But with that, we've emerged with a whole lot of progression. We've seen a whole new era of crypto get ushered in out of the depths that we had just a couple of months ago. And this week, one of the big themes that we're going to talk about is tokenization and real world assets. It was all over the news in so many different ways that we just had to cover it once again. So we're going to talk about what's happening here because it revolves and really kind of circles around Coinbase, the sec, Ondo X stocks, like all these different areas making moves to advanced tokenization in real world assets. We're going to talk about some of the other players that are involved, what's going to be getting tokenized, what cryptos could be affected by something like this, and a whole lot more. Of course, beyond just tokenization, there is plenty of other stuff going on. You have corporate bitcoin holdings crossing 1 million bitcoin for the first time ever, putting in a huge milestone. We need to bring up the M2 money supply because if that goes according to plan, it could really spice things up for the remainder of this year. Then we have Fed Governor Waller saying he thinks that we should have multiple interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. Tell you what, if we get half of those catalysts, it's going to be a good year, a good remainder of the year for the crypto markets. But there's a lot of other stuff as well. I mean, we have Gavin Newsom launching a meme coin. You know, we got some clips to talk about that. Seems like everyone wants to launch one these days. And yeah, new crypto IPOs, a whole lot more. I don't want to spoil it all. You all are here for it. And of course, I can't do it without my good buddy tivo.
- [02:19]
TiVo
Yes, Brandon, super excited to be here. Shout out to the chat. We're Piling in here. Shout out to the chat. Shout out to everybody. Tuning in. Apologies. It's my fault. I didn't get a schedule out to you guys this week. Obviously, we had the holiday Monday. We informed you last week we weren't going to be here for that. But we've been ramping up our content later in the summer. But news flash, summer is over. Maybe not officially on the calendar, but summer's over for me. Football kicks off tonight, and we are going to be ramping up crypto coverage back like we were multiple times a week. And I got to be better about giving you guys a timeline because the community's been buzzing. The community's been growing. We've got Vlada in. We've got Sherry. Good morning. We've got one Vision Transition, a classic. He's been tuning in a ton. And again, when you don't announce something and you have people piling in like this and getting the chat, you're building something special or love the community here. And like Brendan said, there's a ton to talk about this week. Some serious. Some really fun stuff on the back end, like the Gavin Newsome meme coin that just had us rolling. Laughing. Let's dive into it. This feels like it's going to push an hour, but, dude, just super exciting stuff. Glad to be back with you. And yeah, just as much as everybody loves summer, fired up for the fall and fired up to be back with you in the community.
- [03:34]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, you mentioned football starts tonight. Listen, there's two things that I like. I like crypto and I like my Eagles. The Eagles better win tonight. They're going to win. If they don't and they lose to the Cowboys, I think it entirely destroys the whole rest of the season. But no, no, the Eagles.
- [03:52]
TiVo
The Eagles will be fine. Go Birds. For all my affiliate, my fellow Philly Flyers out there. But, you know, they need to put the Dallas game in the beginning because really, the Dallas Cowboys really only have five to six weeks is their total season, and then they fall apart, everybody gets hurt, and they're irrelevant. So you have to give them some, you know, prime time shine, if you will, early in the season. So, again, it's a journey, you know, to get to the super bowl is super tough, and the Eagles did it last year. Obviously, we're here for crypto, not sports. But the down guarantees.
- [04:23]
Brendan
There's two guarantees. Two guarantees here, TiVo, are that Bitcoin's the best investment asset and the Eagles are the best football team in the NFL. It's like hand in hand. And if you don't agree with that, you're wrong. But.
- [04:38]
TiVo
I love it.
- [04:39]
Brendan
All jokes aside, everyone, you know, welcome back. Here we are here to talk about crypto. We're just a little excited and hope you enjoy a bit of the banter with us as we're kicking off one.
- [04:48]
TiVo
Thing and I'm going to transition us in, into, into the crypto. We always say this isn't personal financial advice. We're just two guys talking crypto for educational purposes. We can't guarantee anything in the crypto markets. We're going to do our best to try and show you what we think could happen and educate you. But we can guarantee you one thing. The Dallas Cowboys will be irrelevant by week seven.
- [05:12]
Brendan
Oh, I'm on board with that. I am on board with that.
- [05:16]
TiVo
So let's transition. You know, again, we can't crystal ball the markets for you, but we're going to try our best. Brendan, pull up the charts. Let's jump into it.
- [05:23]
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- [05:54]
Brendan
Let's go ahead and jump into this thing. So at a high level here, you know, let's just talk high level before we even throw up the chart. You know, we've seen a bit of choppiness, right? We've seen bitcoin kind of bleeding down since the middle of August and we've been seeing kind of that double top rejection of the highs on Ethereum. We saw the same thing on Bitcoin and now we've kind of just been bleeding downwards, starting to break some of the short term moving averages, seeing a bit more selling pressure than we're used to. I know Bitcoin dropped about 14 off the highs and that's really not anything too crazy. So there's two ways to look at this. Number one, you have short term structure breaking, but you have the mid to long term structure very much intact. And there's really no warning signs on the zoomed out picture of the chart. Now, on the short term chart, there are a little bit of cracks that I think that you can look at and you can trade and those day traders are realizing this and maybe the very short term swing traders have been able to make something from this. But again, the big picture looks fine. So we're going to talk about some of the possible scenarios here. We're even going to allude to the idea that bitcoin could go a little bit further to the downside. But again, that's all just like short term stuff. It's nothing that I see as a viable threat to the bigger picture, to the longer term timescale. So, you know, again, we always like to be transparent and honest with the audience, whether we think the market's bullish or bearish or whether it's just going to chop sideways for a bit. And so we like to keep it real with all of you. But as we look at the Bitcoin chart here, TiVo, I mean this is that bleed that I was kind of talking about. We came up, we failed the breakout to new all time highs, sharp rejection from this off the highs. Then we bounced here, saw a lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high again and we're rejecting and coming down here. So there's a couple areas of resistance and there's one big thought that I have. Number one, this area around 112,000, roughly speaking, was a big area for bitcoin in the past. I mean we saw it come up here and reject and reject and reject. And we saw it struggle around this area quite a bit. This is where the previous all time high was before we broke out. Now after we broke out, we use this as support here at the start of August and again here towards the end of August. And ever since we have broken down from this trend line, again was resistance then support. Now we're below it and we can quite clearly see it being used again over here as resistance because we have the breakdown, we have the rejection, we have a deeper breakdown and it looks like we're rejecting this area again right here at a slightly lower high. So we're seeing these lower high rejections and these kind of look like just inverse break hook and goes. So when we're seeing this again, is it a great sign for bitcoin? Not necessarily, but it's very, it's very much in the short term view. You know, we don't look at something like this and say, oh, this ruins the whole macro infrastructure of bitcoin because that still is all very much intact. In fact, this has been a somewhat mild pullback in comparison to some of the previous ones that we've seen where bitcoin has pulled back, you know, below the 200 day moving average here, below the 200 day moving average Here, below the 200 day moving average over here. And you know, some of these moves have been 23%. This one was 35%, this one was 33%. And then we look at this little move that we have over here and bitcoin hasn't even tested the 200 day moving average. We're not even near it yet, let alone, you know, breaking through it and destroying structure. We're just nowhere near that area yet. And so when we look at this and we say, oh, Bitcoin pulled back 14% again, you know, not anything too crazy or out of the ordinary. We've seen moves like this happen over here about a 10% pullback. We saw another one over here, about a 13% pullback. We've seen all sorts of other pullbacks and we've recovered off of these. And so we've had all these different double digit pullbacks. And I say this because they're quite frequent in bitcoin and I don't want anyone to freak out too much about them because they happen. And the last time that we did something like this was just a couple of months ago. We were recovering off of the April lows, went back up to all time highs, rejected, oops, rejected the all time high. And then what did we do? Well, we rejected this all time high and we fell about 13% to the, to the downside, to something called the anchored volume weighted average price or the AV wop, or the AV wop as we like to call it in ta. So we plot this anchored vwap from the April lows on, you know, around the start of April and this is where we pulled back to on this orange line, conveniently enough. You know, this is where we're coming back to right now and we're still finding support down here. So again, in the short term you have a few little signs of like, hey, we're breaking below the 20 day moving average, below the 50 day moving average. This is forming a short term death cross. We're seeing a break of support, the rejection of it, we are seeing some stuff, but it's all very short term in nature. So what that means is that, yeah, you know, maybe it's possible, I'm not going to say guaranteed, it's a possibility that we go a little bit further to the downside, maybe we tap this AV up from the April lows more properly, like we did over here. I'd say that's a possibility to retest 106k. If we end up breaking that and we come back to the 200 day moving average, which we've already seen three times since the pivot in 2022. You know, that means we come back to around 101K, previous area of support, 200 day moving average down here, a bunch of different levels to look at. So again, long term structure unscathed, a little bit of short term stuff happening here. But that's what you get in any market, right? You're going to get pullbacks, you're going to see things move up to new all time highs like we did and then you're going to see it pull back and then it continues and pulls back. And that's been the name of the game here for a while on bitcoin. I mean you just look at it since 2022 and that is the nature is that we have these moves up pullback, move up pullback, move up pullback. And this is just the kind of thing that happens. So again, really not anything too out of the ordinary. I'm not sweating it too much. I'm looking to just kind of DCA down here, especially under 110 or 110K. I kind of see a little golden pocket in between 100k and 110k. That's an area that I like for myself. But you know, we've seen other stuff over here on Ethereum where this looks a little bit stronger than Bitcoin and we've seen both Ethereum and Solana see some extra strength where Solana is not below the 50 day moving average yet. It's not breaking down to lower lows yet. And so again, a little bit more strengthen here from Ethereum. Yeah, kind of did a similar double top at all time highs but it's not seeing lower lows, it's not breaking to or it's not breaking below the 50 day moving average.
- [12:50]
TiVo
So.
- [12:50]
Brendan
So there's just a little bit more strength in Ethereum and that's something that I've noticed. And then the final one before I pass it off is that Solana as well seeing more strength actually really close to its local highs. Little bit further away from all time highs. But in the last couple of months here we've seen a lot of strength as this has seen higher lows with a relatively flat level of resistance around that $210 level up here. So it looks as if pressure is squeezing to the upside and Solana is again outperforming many other altcoins kind of in this short to midterm as pressure is building to the upside. It's above the 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages and it's much closer to resistance than I would say many other altcoins are. So some relative strength here in some of these leading altcoins in comparison to Bitcoin. And it's not just in the large caps. You know, we've seen ENA here in recent months and weeks do really, really well. We've seen hyper liquid contesting the all time highs. We've seen similar stuff with chain link on a nice uptrend. We've seen it over here, you know, with like aerodrome and a handful.
- [14:01]
TiVo
Can you pull up Ondo? I know that's going to be a big topic of conversation a little bit. Not right now, but we'll get to it. But I think it'd be cool to see the chart.
- [14:10]
Brendan
Yeah, Ondo is an interesting one as well. And you know, they've been interesting because they're doing a lot and they're getting very integrated, but they haven't been seeing as much, I think token appreciation as people expected, especially with all the progression that they have made. Now I like Ondo, I own Ando, you know, full disclaimer there. But they haven't been doing as much in terms of price performance. And this is primarily due to their token unlocks and their overall token inflation on Ondo. And that's been one of the big things kind of suppressing price. So we're going to talk a lot about tokenization, we're going to talk about other coins that can get exposure. From this rally that we're seeing on the tokenization and real world assets side of crypto, this is one of the leaders. But again, if you're looking in the Ondo again, I like it, I own it. But you do need to look into what their unlock schedule looks like and what their inflation looks like because that has been one of the big hurdles for Ondo in recent months, really over the course of this year because you look at it in the bigger picture and it looks good, right? It came, it opened up, this thing rallied and then it pulled back and it rallied to a higher high and now it's finding support and it's trying to rally and it has a little bit, just not as much as we've seen with some of these more volatile runs that Ando's had in the past. So it's stalling out a little bit. I Think it's largely due to token unlocks and inflation, but still a project that's doing really good stuff. As we'll talk about in just a moment.
- [15:39]
TiVo
Yeah, building, building a nice, a nice base. It looks like the. And then I can take it from here and share, share the screen as we move on. But before we move on, just, you know, thank you all for tuning in. Chat's still active. Brandon, we got Scott, we've got some cowboys banter. We got Will, Will's checking in. Good morning to you as well, Will. And then if you enjoyed that T.A. again, Brendan does. I've mentioned before on the show the full, you know, micro bull run course where you get basically TA with him non stop all week. Two live sessions plus a ton of training. I put the link below if anybody's interested. Check it out for more access to Brendan and Tang and learning that skill. I think, I think your cohort actually opens up next week. I believe it is, or definitely in the next two weeks. And then I was talking with Cayman. We're gonna do like a technical analysis spectacular live maybe coming up in a couple weeks. So something to look forward to. If you're interested, check the link below. But we wanted to pull up the Bitcoin fear greed index because this week we actually did. We kissed it folks. We kissed fear. So we're hanging there right at 44. I think 42 is the first or 40, like anything below 40. I think we kissed it on some of the, the indexes here. So we kissed fear. And again, I'm definitely somebody to say, I've said it on the show before. If you're going to have a 10% correction in Bitcoin and still be above $100,000, any of us would have taken that a year ago. And the fact that we can hit the fear metrics on, on, on the crypto markets with where the prices are today actually gets me bowled up and scared. What do you think, Brendan?
- [17:21]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean it is funny that we're like at $110,000 and the market's almost in fear mode and we tapped fear mode. We've come a long way. We really have. And again, I don't. Maybe we have a little bit more downside. I don't see the markets being as fearful as people are making them out to be. You look at all the catalysts. Like we're getting good regulation, we're getting good adoption, we're seeing good progression. More companies are getting their hands on it. The Treasuries are growing, they're not stopping the ETFs are there and doing stuff. And then you look at rate cuts coming, which we're going to talk about here a little bit later on, but that looks imminent. The odds of a rate cut went from, you know, I forget what it was at to 98% yesterday. Yeah, went to a 98% chance of getting a rate cut yesterday after the jolts report came out. And for crypto that's a really good sign. So again, I zoom out in the short term. Yeah, you know, things look a little rough but like I zoom out and there's good TA in the long term and there's really good catalysts in the short term. And I can't see what would derail us from that without some crazy unforeseen event like with the data that we see right now and the catalysts that we know are coming. I still think it's hard to be a bear, especially on bitcoin.
- [18:44]
TiVo
Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I pulled up, yeah, pulled up this tweet. As again, you're technically fearful, kind of to your point, the regulation keeps rolling in. The, the SEC just, I saw a tweet right now as we were live is like, you know, the SEC continues to roll out the red carpet for crypto regulation. As you know, if there's anything, you know, that changes on that, we're going to be the first ones to bring it to you. But to your point, it's just, it's hard to be bearish when kind of the Runway is set for this asset class. And as it continues to go, all I see is, is new products coming left and right.
- [19:19]
Brendan
Right.
- [19:19]
TiVo
It's just new product after new product, whether it's, you know, we got equity index futures from Coinbase. I'm going to hand it off to you to explain this, but just at the table is like all these new products, then we're going to talk about tokenizing stocks. It's like, it's a pure unlock of liquidity in my mind. So what are you seeing from this Coinbase announcement?
- [19:38]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, listen everyone, we're about to go on a tangent of tokenization and real world assets, which is a sector that's exploding inside of crypto. But we have just gotten a dump truck unload of news and Coinbase was one of the first ones on the list. So they said, hey, coming September 22nd, we're going to allow people to trade MAG 7 and or the MAG 7 and AS. Or I guess on top of that they're also going to get index futures for the crypto market or for equities on the crypto market. So what this means is that people will be able to trade tokenized versions or what looks to be tokenized versions of the MAG7 plus index futures. So this means S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell, all those things. You'll be able to trade futures contracts for them, which is a form of leverage. They expire every month. The contracts last a month. You can buy them and sell them at any time, but the contracts change every single month. And they're usually pretty heavily leveraged. I also saw that they were expanding to their international markets outside the US up to 50x leverage on some of their other perpetual contracts. So Coinbase is making a big push here. We know that they've talked about how they've wanted to integrate more tokenization and doing stuff. And so now what they're starting to do is introduce some of these more mainstream tradfi assets. And I think that this will be their way of branching themselves into more and more tokenization over time. Because they're going to say, hey, get familiar with these products and then they're going to have more tokenized assets. And that's kind of just the way that I see this. This moving is them getting everyone accustomed to this stuff first and then again introducing it more and more, kind of the way that Robinhood has been doing it. Again, another one that we didn't even include in here, but they've been heavily involved in the tradfi space, gotten more involved in crypto and now they're saying, hey, we're going to be able to tokenize all these different tradfi assets and equities, and then we're going to get people familiar with them and then you're going to be able to trade them at a later point in time. So we are seeing this bridge between the two get closer and closer to kind of being done. But there's a lot of other groups that are kind of doing something similar to this.
- [22:04]
TiVo
Yeah. And one of them is Onda, so we'll bring that up next. But I think that's kind of the interesting part of this whole thing is the, you know, the old guards, your Goldman Sachs and JP Morgans, and, you know, yes, they've come out and the headlines are there like, oh, we're anti Bitcoin, but we're pro blockchain and we're going to build blockchains. The future. Yes, yes, yes. It's, it's kind of interesting to to see who's really building underneath the hood. And, and again, I think we've talked about this before. Like, the real winners are going to be the ones that have the best UI and the best tech, even if they aren't the old guard name brand. Now, don't get me wrong, if Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, if they roll out some awesome, you know, blockchain technology or partner with the right people and have the right tech, then even if it's just a little bit not as good as some others, they're going to win because they're, again, they're the old guards. But, but I think there's something to be said of, like, are these people really, you know, these, these companies, do they. Have they been investing this? Have they been building for the future, or are they going to kind of get caught off sides? Like, you can talk the talk, but if you roll something out and it stinks like these, these technology companies, again, Robinhood is, is, is thought of, and this was the famous call that we talk about all the time, is like, Robinhood was valued as a trading stock brokerage gambling website, and then the bulls got on board. Our Crypto 101 podcast was one of the first out there at $9, telling you, like, this isn't a gambling brokerage company. This is a technology company. This is, you know, the future of blockchain, the future of finance. And, you know, you see the stock since. Since we've had that episode at $9, goes up to $100, right? $110. So, you know, this is the type of technologies that we try to bring to you. And so now, you know, Ando's tokenizing stocks, X stocks, and it's like, you see where the puck's going. So again, I. And just because they're announcing this, you know, there's more research and more education needs to be done. It doesn't mean that this is some magical investment. You need to do the research and you need to make sure it's right for you. But this is the type of stuff that these bigger companies should be doing, should be building, should be announcing. But they're just talking about working on the blockchain. They're not actually rolling stuff out. So are they caught off sides? Brennan, what do you think? And are you excited for the Ondo announcement? Because that was a huge rollout.
- [24:26]
Brendan
Yeah, it's a huge rollout. This thing just went live yesterday, I believe. And what this is, is they're going to be rolling out a hundred different US stocks and ETFs on chain. And they're also going to be having a ton of different partnerships and integrations. And so people are going to be able to trade, you know, all sorts of like, different equities, you know, Apple, Tesla, Meta, Nvidia, like Amazon, stuff like that, alongside different ETFs that they're already used to trading. But it's all going to be done on Ethereum through these tokenized assets. And I was looking through their partnership list of different apps that have like integrations and partnerships with them. They already have it with like the Bitget Wallet, The Trust Wallet, OkX Wallet, Gate, Chainlink, Bitget. They have all these different integrations. As you kind of scroll down you, I'm sure you can probably see some of the ones that they list. And then they mentioned like, hey, like this is just the start. We're looking at doing a lot of other things, including more assets and also moving to other chains. And so they talk about how they want to move from just primarily being on Ethereum to also expanding to their own chain, Ondo Chain and then bnb, Solana and a bunch of others. And so this is cool because I believe they even have a feature in here. They're either working on it or I'm actually not sure if it was included in this update where you can like mint and redeem shares based off of what you own and you're able to actually like transfer these things around, which is a pretty interesting concept. So they're working on a lot here and xdocs is another group that's been working on this as well, but they've been primarily focused on Solana. So they've been tokenizing the equities market on Solana and now they're coming in here and saying, hey, we're going to be expanding to Etherium. We're going to be bringing 60 different equity plays and allowing those to be traded on Ethereum now. So we're going to have some cross compatibility. And we're just seeing a huge, huge push from this sector. I mean, even from the SEC basically coming out and saying, like, we're going to be talking about this this week. And I think I saw, was it the SEC or the Fed, One of them came out, or maybe both of them came out and were like, we need to talk about this asap. And they put meetings on the calendars for, I believe, the 12th or something like that. But regardless, like, this is a huge push. It's a huge push. We're seeing it happen all over the place in crypto, out of crypto, tradfi, defi, you name it. There's a huge push for this subject of tokenization, and it's something to pay attention to alongside the stablecoin push, because both of those could be encompassed inside of defi, maybe, but we're just seeing a lot of attention go towards that sector.
- [27:21]
TiVo
Right? And again, if you're comparing tradfi to defi, there's a lot of red tape and regulation of how can we get involved, how can we build. And. And we've seen the partnerships and we've seen kind of, excuse me, the quote unquote moonshots and Robin Hood and Arbitrum was. Was leading it off, like we said. But there's a lot of other people that need exposure to this market and they just can't dive in and start buying all coins. It's not. It's just not allowed. And so I think you're kind of. You're kind of seeing just general crypto exposure, you know, whether it's stable coins, blockchain technology or bitcoin. We're pulling up a chart here of how corporate bitcoin holdings just crossed 1 million BTC for the first time. That's $111 billion. That's backed up by publicly traded institutions for. For bitcoin. And so, you know, people are holding this on their balance sheet. And as you can kind of see from Q4, 2023 all the way up to the latest, it's. It's grown quarter over quarter, little by little, huge jump from Q3 to Q4. And then again, we seem to be compounding pretty fast since those ETFs have come online. And so again, the play. I think the coolest thing is we all had the theory, right, Brendan, when we were doing the whole, you know, the bitcoin ETF at the time when we were doing like one rundown a week and we were having on guests and talking to Matt Hogan and getting this thing off the ground, like, what a monumental day it was and how excited we were. And then, remember that day, Dip? Remember the sell? The news? That was so funny. That was so funny.
- [28:53]
Brendan
The time of the ETFs launching, right?
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TiVo
And. And then it, like, it was so funny because again, as a team. And that's why you need a community, right? Because as a team, we're all like, this is ridiculous. Like, buy the dip. This is crazy. But like, there is. There is like a 1% rose. Like, oh, man, is this just like a fugazi? Like, what? Why this should definitely work. Like, everything adds up to this working. And then here we are, you know, a year plus later and it's, it's, it's work. So like the Playbook set. And that's why I think these blue chips, again, Ethereum, you're seeing it play out with the narrative. We've talked about that a lot. The Solana ETFs are up next. Other all coin ETFs are coming. And so it just takes time to get this through the process, but people are begging to get into this market. And again, we've seen it with the IPOs, and we're going to talk about more of that later in the show. But, you know, it's just, it's so, it's almost. Again, it's not personal financial advice ever. It's educational, it's fun. But like, the Playbook's been given to you. You just need to do the research and, and you know, again, play where the puck's gonna go, not where it is today.
- [29:54]
Brendan
And if you remember, like during that period where things were falling after the ETFs or like, why is this happening? Like, we talked about grayscale a lot. We had a lot of like, frustrating episodes where we're like, listen, grayscales unloading en masse. And we said, look, they can't keep this up. They cannot have this level of, of, of selling pressure. It becomes unsustainable. They're going to run out of all their bitcoin. And so they were at this interesting spot where we know that they had to pivot, they had to offer lower rates, they had to incentivize people not to sell. But we said, you know, this can't go on for forever. The primary reason why the market was getting driven down was from people offloading their grayscale ETF shares. And since it was spot, it was affecting the bitcoin market directly. In the whole crypto market, we talked about like, hey, this is a short term thing. This isn't something that goes on for forever. They have to pivot and maybe probably offer some concessions. And once the people sell, they've sold. And like, this is a very short term thing that we talked about at the time of it happening. And now you look at it in hindsight, like in the moment, yeah, it's scary. But now we zoom out a year and a half later and we're like, okay, things are a lot better off. We're a lot higher than we were.
- [31:07]
TiVo
Credit to us, dude. I don't know if any community has been more spot on with grayscale because a year before that you, Bryce and the team brought up the. There was kind of the play where before the conversion of the etf, the value of grayscale's bitcoin in their other vehicle before it was into an ETF was actually like at 50% at one point during FTX. And that was a play I remember we, we wrote about that. I played that and it was. Yeah, it was 100 win winner just based on like bitcoin nav. So you know this, this team has been riding the grayscale train and reading that like an absolute book. But where, where does, where does bitcoin go from here? Where does altcoins and all that stuff go from here? Again, that's what you guys tune into every week. We try to give you all the information we can. And basically what we're seeing is with rate cuts coming up and then they continued M2 money supply just going through the roof. This is something that we've covered a lot. And again, we don't think it's a single thing that you look at to make decisions on. But it should be in your toolbox. And that's why we keep bringing it back. The bulls have been vindicated so far. But I will say it kind of is time as. As bitcoin has continued to rise. I'm sorry. As the M2 money supply has continued to rise, Gold's rocketed to all time highs all this week. It's kind of in that time now where people start going, wait, if the M2 money supply is real, Bitcoin needs to make its move. Bitcoin needs to make its move now. So we're kind of back in that. Do you believe in this phase? And last time we did this, it went up. So you know, we're gonna, we're gonna be the ones to keep track of it. But Brendan, what are you looking at with M2 and gold all time highs this week?
- [32:49]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean we're, we're seeing some correlation there. M2 is skyrocketing. All of a sudden gold starts skyrocketing. I think that fairly soon here. Again, I don't like giving short term predictions for the M2 money supply because it's the most unsuccessful and short term time horizons, but it's the most successful in the longer term time horizons. So I think that I would say fairly soon here we wrap up, you know, August, September, historically not great months for the crypto market. I think it's given that we get some chop if anywhere during these two months. But I think as we start bringing September to a close, as we start working towards rate cuts, as we get closer to, as I like to call it, October instead of October, as we get closer to all of that, I think that crypto does start to retain this following back towards this. Now this is saying 167, maybe 185k. You know, we'll see. We certainly need to get pretty aggressive into the final parts of the year if we're going to do that. Seems a little bit less likely with how much we're stalling out. But never underestimate the winter push that crypto has during October in the Santa Claus rally and all these other things. But I want to count it down and out and again these, this does tend to be very correlated. You can see it on the chart. We're stalling out a little bit now. We have periods of a stall out. But again, in the bigger picture, I would imagine that we do play a game of catch up. Whether that's this month or next month, you know, we'll see. But I do think we resume to the upside and I still think bitcoin is room for new all time highs. Yeah.
- [34:25]
TiVo
And when you're looking at M2 money supply compared with the 98 chance of a Fed rate cut as of yesterday because of the bad jobs report, again we had two dissenting Fed governors in the last decision, which, you know, don't quote me on the years, Brendan, but I believe it was 33 years. I think it was three decades is the last time that you've had two dissenting governors. And again, this whole process as we've talked about on the show, but don't deep dive on it, seems to have gotten a little political recently. But at the end of the day it's, it feels like it's time just from a data point. So you know that, that seems to be the case. The market believes that and you know the market is definitely, maybe can get political sometimes, but overall the market's taking telling you it is what it is. So we're looking for that rate cut to come this September. We'll definitely be covering it, but yeah, just some more. Some more takes that, you know. Yeah, there's people that think we shouldn't cut, but there's, there's several people that think not only we should cut, but we should have multiple cuts. And then you can see here an amazing meme from the social media team of absolute. Of the. What is that? Ibiza boss, Fed chair pal.
- [35:36]
Brendan
There yeah, that's Chad. Pow. Right?
- [35:41]
TiVo
So, yeah. How many cuts you like? You're looking for one cut, multiple cuts for the year. Brennan, are you eyeing it up and comparing it with kind of them two, money supply and just, you know, you're, you're feeling good about the setup here into the end of the year?
- [35:53]
Brendan
Yeah. You know, it's interesting. I had a. One of our members ask me in one of our more private settings about what's happening here and what I thought was going to happen. And I do think that we get multiple rate cuts. Now I see some people starting to say three. We'll see. They still, we'll find out a lot at the next meeting, but they still seem somewhat hesitant. I think with the jobs reports and stuff starting to look worse. Again, it fuels this argument of we need a rate cut. I do think we get to. I do, you know, maybe threes on the high end, but I do think we get two. My concern is are these going to be a quarter or a half?
- [36:36]
TiVo
Right.
- [36:37]
Brendan
Are we going to see 25 basis points or 50 basis points? And right now I would say we're leaning towards a quarter. That's probably the most likely scenario. I think it'd be great to get 250 basis point rate cuts, but again, I kind of see that as the less likely scenario at the moment of getting two of those by the end of this year. But I do think we kind of continue in the next year with more rate cuts to come. So I think we get probably two this year. I think we probably get more going in the next year, especially once J. Pal is out of office. You have to think that there's going to be more on the way after that because there's going to be a new Fed chairman who's going to be in favor of rate cuts. There's already two governors that are in favor of rate cuts and now we're getting more economic data to fuel this idea of a rate cut. So, like, the data is pushing us towards this idea that we should start seeing more and more of this. And especially when you look at the inflation data, like, for the most part, no real rise in inflation that's been out of line with expectations from the tariffs and.
- [37:36]
TiVo
Yeah, yeah, couldn't agree more. And again, it's just kind of the bullish news continues with a flurry of IPOs. Obviously, you know, the crypto ones are. That are what we want to cover after, especially after the Circle launch that went absolutely bananas and a handful of others. But Gemini, there's been Remember, we were covering. It was like Gemini secretly files for IPO or something. Well, the secret's out, it's public, and they're going forward with it. And then there's. What was it? Figure was the other one, Brendan. Is that right? Yeah, figure. So Gemini and figure, obviously, huge steps for crypto. So what's your take on that? And then, you know, the coolest thing now, I think with some of the, you know, ask, you know, brokerages like Robinhood and Sofi, as well as you can, the public is. Is starting to get at least limited access to get some bids in. So what are you seeing?
- [38:29]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, we. We talked about this like a month or two ago and we said, listen, Coinbase did it. Circle did it. A lot of these groups have done it, and this space doesn't have a lot of competitors yet. And with the success that we've seen, it's just the way that we're going to move. And we talked about Gemini, we talked about. I think bitget was maybe 1, and the only one that isn't on the list quite yet is Kraken, which will probably be next year, in my opinion. We'll see. But, yeah, I mean, Gemini's going for it. I think this will be pretty interesting. Gemini's made a huge push in the us. They've been growing. I think that the collapse of FTX has helped them out a lot. You know, a little bit of a tragic event, but, you know, probably good for Gemini, but. Yeah, man, they're, you know, they're going to be Ipoing. I've seen this all over my Robinhood account of them blasting, like, can get access to this IPO on Robin Hood and everyone's advertising it, so we'll see. I'm excited for it. You know, I will say, you know, I like Gemini for sure, and. And they do like, a lot of great things as well. Like, I have an account over there.
- [39:32]
TiVo
So sponsor the pod. They're running sponsorships on crypto101 right now, so we appreciate them. And, yeah, there were some talks that they might want to re up. I'm trying to get one of the Winklevoss twins on. I'm like, hey, you know, you guys will give you a good deal if. If Tyler or Cameron want to come on and do an interview with us. So, yeah, absolutely. Stuff no good.
- [39:51]
Brendan
I was gonna say we've made videos on them too. Right? So, like, we bring this up when we were saying, hey, this is happening, but, like, also, like, you know, we like them. We've literally recently been making videos on them. And those videos that we made, Diva, like, they weren't like sponsoring us, like paying us go make these YouTube videos. We were just like, they're, they're popular and we like them and they're reliable. And so we've gone out of our ways here in the last couple of months to just make videos on them. So again, we like this. I'll probably try to get my hands on some exposure here. We'll see if I actually can. Sometimes it's a little bit harder to. But listen, I like them, I want to support them. Again, this isn't sponsored either. I know they're a sponsor of the POD and stuff, but we're talking about this because we think it's relevant and we like them.
- [40:34]
TiVo
So, yeah, 100%. And I think that when it comes to, sorry, I'm trying to pull something up, but when it comes to Gemini and getting that IPO access, I think that again, the market's thirsty for crypto IPOs. We talked about the circle one, we did a full breakdown and we thought that was going to go bananas. And then we actually had Joe, Brian and all of us on. And I was the only one that got exposure to that one. I know Joe got. And then they were upset that they didn't because of the bidding. So it's like, it's stuff you really got to educate on if you want to try to get access to that IPO stuff, whether it's through Sofi, Robinhood, whatever. But it's awesome that there's the opportunity and the Circle One was a big win. I know Joe got in on one recently. I can't remember the exact name of the company. He had a big winner. So the opportunity is there. But I also, I also think, and I guess when we get closer to launch date, maybe we can give a, you know, an educated guess slash prediction what could happen. But there's something's telling me that I think it'll do really well. But also the cert, like what happened to Circle was kind of a one off. I think that was like a little bit more of exuberance. So, yeah, I don't think there's going to be a 10x out the gate per se. But yeah, I think again, even just a long term play, like the wink of the Winklevoss twins are, you know, true stewards of the space and been around for so long that, yeah, you got to think that, you know, they're going to grow and it's a good, a good Thing to get, even if it's at the ipo, even if it rockets up or corrects, whatever, long term. And I was, I was distracted because I was trying to pull this up. As you can see here, we got Tyler Winklevoss liking. Oh, I'm sorry, two of my posts. Oh, two of my posts. I'm trying, man, I'm trying. I got Gemini jumping over JP Morgan, one of my famous memes there. But he gave us a follow, which I appreciate, and he's given us some likes. So I'm on the case, Brandon. I'm trying. I'm trying really, really, really hard.
- [42:32]
Brendan
Hey, he'll come on here sooner or later. He'll come on here sooner or later.
- [42:36]
TiVo
That's. That's the idea. But I think, let's see. To end it here, I have a fun clip here. Everybody's favorite or least favorite shark, depending on who you are. Mr. Wonderful. Mr. Wonderful's kind of been into crypto. He definitely has a famous quote. He's like, I wouldn't touch bitcoin and crypto with a 10 foot pole or something, you know, during the FTX days. And then he's finally come around. Now he's a big, you know, talk or the space. It is a two minute clip, but I think I'm gonna play it. I probably might play the whole two minutes here. The, the thought process is again, it's nothing new that he's gonna say that you haven't heard. So it's nothing new. But I think what's important is, you know, obviously we haven't mentioned Tom Lee, so we have to do it at least once an episode. We all know Tom Lee in the space. We all know Michael Saylor, but that's not like I'm talking about national news that your grandmother or a talking head that your father or mother are going to listen to. This is somebody who the masses listen to and, and respect in the way of like, obviously, Shark Tank was one of the massive successes of business TV in our lifetime. And so when you see this guy on TV. Oh, Mr. Wonderful. What's he talking. Oh, what's he doing? A business. Is it. Is it cake? Mama cakes and tasty cake. Whatever bagels he invested in, what was he talking about? And they're like, crypto. Oh, Mr. Wonderful is talking about crypto. So that's why I think it's important to take a look as to kind of his verbiage around it. So let's take a peek.
- [43:59]
Mr. Wonderful
$2 billion kind of made a move out of Bitcoin. Into ETH. And that might have spooked the market a bit. But for reasons I don't think really matter long term at this point in time, if you're a bitcoin investor, even as an individual or an institution, price volatility is baked. It's just got to deal with it. And that's created a new narrative that I'm certainly getting involved in is if I have a 5% weighting in a fund of etc Bitcoin and it's just sitting there and it goes through its price moves and it always has a lot of my other assets. For example stocks that pay dividends or bonds that pay interest, they sit there and generate money on a monthly basis. Why can't I do the same thing with my bitcoin? And so a lot of people say, well that's not the pure reason to own Bitcoin. You want price appreciation very much like gold. But on the other hand, if you start thinking about what you can do, think about it this way. My two largest positions are BTC and eth and there's a reason for that. They're the gold standards. And I've had them since I took positions on at the beginning. And you obviously, if you want to think about the future of Wall street, well, Ethereum really matters. And Ethereum matters also because of the genius act. A lot of the transactions that are occurring with stablecoins are occurring on E.
- [45:21]
TiVo
So I'm going to stop it there because again, obviously, obviously Mr. Wonderful has been listening to Tom Lee and the Crypto 101 podcast because he just hits all the same talking points. But I think the number one thing, and he goes on the rest of the clip, he's saying my biggest two positions, Bitcoin and ETH. That's 90% of my crypto portfolio. And I think that's important because again, as much as we love altcoin season and, and we're really into that stuff and going through the trenches and you know, you can do it with technical analysis. Brian and Joe are in the trenches doing their meme coin stuff and are finding absolute wild winners in there. That's not for the masses. And it kind of goes back to that kind of discussion we were having over kind of these ETFs and approvals and the SEC regulation leading the way is kind of where the more bigger momentum moves are happening at the top of of these blue chips. Right? Because exactly what Mr. Wonderful saying is, is how the financial planners and the hedge funds and the family offices are going to be Talking to their clients of about that 1, 2, 3, 5%, who, you know, who knows. Whatever allocation they want to make, they're not going to go buy, you know, Pengu, right at the family office. It's going to go to bcc. It's going to. But I think the most interesting thing is before, a year ago was just bitcoin. That's it. Now, east, in the conversation that has a narrative, we've talked about how that narrative will change. And Solana is going to start dancing again at some point, we believe. But that's why I think it's important to play clips like that, because that's the verbiage that the generation above us that said crypto was molten hot lava trash two years ago is now going to start doing a 1 to 5% allocation. And that's the type of verbiage that they're going to be hearing. Sorry for the rant, but that's what I thought.
- [47:05]
Brendan
You're right, man. You know, it's important to make sure all audiences get access to this and they're aware of this, and it's good to see it. But on the opposite note, we're going.
- [47:17]
TiVo
To start calling him Mr. Crypto, by the way, not Mr. Wonderful.
- [47:20]
Brendan
I like it. I like it. What else? We got TiVo.
- [47:26]
TiVo
To wrap us up an absolute hilarious clip here from, from Gavin Newsome. And again, we try not to be political, but Gavin's very funny. He, he, he puts himself out there on like this. And this is, let's, let's, let me put on my Barstool hat. For those who listen to the show know that I used to work at Barstool, so I'm a content guy through and through and kind of to combat this whole new age podcast platform where, you know, kind of Trump did a masterclass on media, I think, leading into the election. And so now Gavin Newsom's like, oh, I need to do all this media. So he starts a podcast and he's, you know, does his spots and all that. And so, so he puts out a lot of fun, fun clips. I think he does, he does a great job of putting out content, but he's kind of always trying to stay what's hot and what's topical. And the funniest thing is now Gavin Newsom is, is announcing a meme coin. He wants to launch a meme coin to compete with Trump. So it's a quick sound bite here, but, but well worth the listen.
- [48:24]
Mr. Wonderful
The real prediction is, you know, we're about to put a meme Coin out.
- [48:27]
TiVo
And you know what, Donald Trump, we'll.
- [48:29]
Mr. Wonderful
See how well your coin does versus our coin. The real prediction is, you know, we're.
- [48:33]
TiVo
About to put a meme coin out. And you know what, Donald Trump, we'll.
- [48:36]
Mr. Wonderful
See how well your coin does versus our coin.
- [48:38]
TiVo
I think the meme coin is going to be called, like, Trump Corruption Coin, I think tcc. Yeah.
- [48:47]
Brendan
I mean, like, yeah, I can't.
- [48:49]
TiVo
Well, some of the comments on that. I know Pudgy Penguin roasted him. It was like, will profits be taxed at 60%?
- [48:57]
Brendan
Yeah. I think if you scroll. Oh, wait, that's not the original post. If you go to the original post, you can see it. The comment section is brutal.
- [49:07]
TiVo
How funny would it be if there's like a massive, massive rug?
- [49:12]
Brendan
That would be crazy. I don't know. Again, maybe I shouldn't talk about this. I don't want to get too political about it, but it almost just seems like, I don't know, counterintuitive, right? Like, this just seems like an oxymoron is like they were against the whole idea of it, but now they're going to create their own. And I don't know. I mean, it is what it is. They're doing it out of spite. And so, I mean, who knows? Maybe it will be more successful. But it's funny, it's ironic.
- [49:48]
TiVo
I don't think it's going to be more successful financial advice. But the meme coins happen again, I guess. Trump did launches and it wasn't truly organic, but he's an Internet character via organic creation over decades of media politics out. We're talking Apprentice, you know, we're talking famous, you know, TV segments and news. Like, before he was ever in politics, like, Donald Trump has been a media first person, a media icon. And that's what we've talked about with meme coins. Brian and Joe, right? It's like meme coins are about bringing culture on chain. Pudgy Penguins is a movement, right? It's a movement, it's a culture, it's a brand new. And that. That's why taking politics off of it, the Trump stuff works because it's hilarious and he leans into these accounts and the White House is tweeting memes and it's like, it really is funny. So then, like, just the thought of a political opponent being like, well, we're going to launch a meme coin and it's going to be better and we're going to kick your butt. It's just like, that's you're totally Missing the assignment. You're totally missing the assignment.
- [50:52]
Brendan
That. That is the best way to put it. And maybe we should have Brian and Joe talk about this because, you know, they're the experts on the meme coin things. But. Yeah, I don't know. We'll see. I can't imagine. Because, like, the way that I look at it is they are. You know, the left hasn't been as friendly towards crypto. You saw what the previous administration. It's just how it was. They were not very friendly towards crypto. So. But they're trying to tap into the crypto audience here. But their primary demographic doesn't just necessarily like crypto as much as a whole. And so it just. Again, I don't. I don't really see the benefits here. And they're kind of missing the mark of like a whole meme coin in the first place, is. It's not for that purpose. But anyway, it is what it is.
- [51:36]
TiVo
Breaking news. This is actually credit to Rohit, our analyst. Over the weekend sent this in the group chat about strategy meeting all the criteria for the S&P 500. Just a post on X. Thought it would be cool to wrap up with that. Something to look out for. I know Robin Hood was kind of gearing up for an S P500 inclusion and is ready and now strategy's ready. So who's going to get the tap on the shoulder? Who knows? I got. I forget. Interactive brokers got in a couple weeks ago, which feels like they got the nod over Robin Hood. Which, you know, hey, full bias aside, 100 bias over here. Smells a little stinky to me. That smells a little bit of. Yeah. What do you think?
- [52:20]
Brendan
I. Yeah. I could not believe that they got the nod over Robin Hood. Crazy to me. But again, you know, whatever. Sounds like they're a little bit salty that Robin Hood is spicing things up.
- [52:33]
TiVo
But, yeah, we keep building. We keep building.
- [52:35]
Brendan
You know, there's a big conference next week.
- [52:38]
TiVo
Big conference next week. We've talked about it before, about the personal banking is going to be rolled out this fall. I do have the credit card.
- [52:45]
Brendan
I'll.
- [52:45]
TiVo
I'll enroll in the personal banking. I'll give us a review. Maybe I'll make some YouTube videos. I actually think in that maybe make like a. I've had the credit card now for a while, so give a review on that. And if I do the personal banking again, that's what. What it's all about. Actually, I forgot to say this. We're talking about IPOs for. For the community. If you're interested? I had Joe make us a tutorial on how to do Robinhood IPOs so we could educate everybody if they're interested. I haven't gotten the thumbnail. It's not up yet, but it will be up this weekend. So if you're interested in the IPO process again, like subscribe, check out the education section of our playlists and you'll find the Robin Hood IPO education tutorial perfect.
- [53:23]
Brendan
Well, I think that brings us to a close here. You know, we're pushing up towards that one hour marker but man, we appreciate everyone coming in here listening to what we have to say and talk about.
- [53:34]
TiVo
What'S Sorry, sorry to cut you off on the wrap up. I did tell the chat that we had some questions with you, so if anybody has one more question, toss it in. McCriz planning on taking a few shorts on my stocks and maybe some or no, sorry, taking few short on my other stocks. Plan on taking a few shorts. So I'm guessing shorting the stocks and going more all in on BTC and eth. Is that full foolish? Again, we can't make a personal financial plan for you, McCriz. Kind of the summary of the whole episode is we, we are bulls. We are a bullish outlook team here. Again, there's a lot going on. It's seasonality. August is weak, September traditionally weak. But you know, you were here for the whole episode and so you kind of made us kind of give the counterpoints for at least a medium to long term view. Anything to add there, Brendan?
- [54:22]
Brendan
No. Yeah, I mean like you said, man, we're bulls. We own both too. Right? I think everyone on the team, I would imagine, owns both stocks and equities as well as crypto. But we're very heavily focused and bullish on crypto more so than anything else. So yeah, we can't tell you what to do with your money. But I'll tell you what, I have personally been buying both more Bitcoin and Ethereum on this dip. So I'm okay doing that.
- [54:48]
TiVo
Love it. The and then Mrs. Seeley, an absolute staple to the YouTube chat. I think she's been to literally everyone. Do you think all season will go into mid-2026? I think basically the general thesis that we've lined out is we're eyeing up momentum into the end of the year, which, you know, I guess would continue into 2026. I personally am a believer of that. I also think again in general zooming out, I'd actually last point I'll toss to you Brendan I think that and kind of what Matt Hogan has pitched and a lot of others have jumped on kind of the end of the four year cycle mega crash again, there could always be a macro catalyst. Obviously FTX was the one that really put the last dagger for a big fall. I don't think we see that with the proper regulation. We hope. We've talked about how a lot of these treasury companies, you know, depending on how many there are and how well they're run, could be a risk. But you know, I, I personally am kind of believing in that camp, especially for bitcoin, that you're not going to see that 70, 60% correction anymore. But you never know. But I think that kind of, I'm kind of on board with that cycle extending, going a little bit longer, especially with the Fed.
- [56:00]
Brendan
I would agree. I think that it can be extended further. I think that we can see it go a little bit longer than normal. I've talked about this a little bit too, TiVo where I just think that we're, we are, dare I say, getting away from the extreme volatility of the four year cycle. I think that we see the large caps probably behaving a little bit more like indices where they have these like gradual appreciations to the upside given with a little bit more volatility. We still have somewhat of a cycle, we still have pullbacks and stuff like that. But yeah, I think that we can go a little bit longer and you know, I would kind of look for prime time to be the end of this year. I would say, listen, I think we fall and we chop around for a bit and then in a perfect world I see us rallying. October, November, December, maybe January having a big blow off and then probably cooling off again. That would be my ideal picture.
- [56:56]
TiVo
I like it. And I think again to that point, summer's over, it's time to lock in. We're gearing up here. We're going to be doing a lot more shows. Solid audience today for not, you know, promoting it inside the community, YouTube only audience. We appreciate you guys. Please throw us a, like, if you haven't subscribe, hit that little logo in the bottom right turn on the bell. We're doing a ton of content this month, in September as we gear up for our favorite month uptober. Brendan, take it from me, sign us off.
- [57:25]
Brendan
Absolutely. Well, hey everyone, we appreciate all of you coming in here, listening to what we have to say. Banter, go back and forth, talk about crypto, everything in between. It has been another great episode of the Crypto rundown. And so we're gonna be back to doing these multiple times a week every single week for you all to listen and watch in on. So make sure you hit the like and subscribe button. If you like it, leave us a comment. We love being able to interact with you all and we'll see all of you at the same time, same place next week. Take care. What you eating?
- [58:09]
TiVo
The new banana split cookie from AM pm. All freshly baked with real butter with banana, chocolate and strawberry flavors.
- [58:15]
Brendan
Wow, that sounds amazing. Can I have a bite?
- [58:17]
TiVo
I'm sorry but no.
- [58:19]
Brendan
But you can't split the banana split. Not even a little.
- [58:22]
TiVo
Not even a crumb. What if no, please. Mine when it's too legit to split. That's cravinience. Get a 3 pack for 99 cents with our app AM PM too much good stuff plus tax where applicable. Prices and participation may vary in terms of conditions apply.
- [58:36]
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