CRYPTO 101 – Episode Summary

Episode: Crypto Rundown: Technical Analysis for BTC, ETH, & SOL Plus Clarity Act Update

Hosts: Bryce Paul & Brendan Viehman
Date: January 13, 2026

Overview

This episode of CRYPTO 101 is a comprehensive, energetic rundown on the state of the crypto market as 2026 kicks off. Bryce and Brendan focus on in-depth technical analyses of leading cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL), institutional market sentiment, macroeconomic tailwinds, and a major political development: the evolving Clarity Act. The duo also reacts to live regulatory news and discusses how retail and institutional investors are positioning for the year ahead.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Community Engagement & Podcast Kickoff

• Brendan shares a story about meeting a listener ("Billy") during his holiday in the Bahamas, illustrating the podcast’s reach and community love.
• The team reiterates their mission to provide accessible, actionable crypto insights:

  “We love doing these. We truly love interacting with all of you, and if you see us in public, we'd love to say hello.” (Brendan, 02:04)

2. Technical Analysis: Market State of Bitcoin and Altcoins

Bitcoin (BTC): Trend Structure and Key Levels

• Price Action: BTC has been consolidating, forming an ascending triangle (a bullish formation).

• Key Resistance: $94,000

• Key Support: Support has risen over recent weeks (from $80K up to near $89K).

• Positive Momentum:

  • BTC is above the 50- and 20-day moving averages.
  • “Golden cross” formed (20-day MA crossing above 50-day MA)—traditionally bullish.

• Indicators:

  • RSI/MACD/Fear & Greed at historic turnaround points.
  • All signs suggest potential for a bullish breakout, but caution remains due to previous volatility.

  “You’re starting to see some cracks in the bearish armor...” (Brendan, 06:48)

• Potential Upside:

  • Next resistance: $100K (minor), $106K (major, coincides with 200-day MA).
  • If BTC breaks below the rising support, bull thesis invalidated.

• Macro View:
  BTC may be due to "catch up" with other assets at all-time highs, like S&P and gold.

Ethereum (ETH): Squeeze and Staking Dynamics

• ETH is in a pennant formation, with pressure building.
• Massive rise in staking queue—suggests long-term holders are accumulating at current prices.

  "These are all people... saying, hey, I want to stake, I want to earn a yield on my money and I want to be in for a long period of time." (Brendan, 15:29)

Solana (SOL): Breakout Watch

• SOL is breaking out of a lengthy sideways channel.
• If successful, next stop is the 200-day MA at ~$170.
• “Pressure building into the upside... Let’s keep a close eye on Solana.” (Brendan, 13:48)

XRP & Other Altcoins

• XRP is weaker, locked in a 6-month downtrend. Needs to break trendline for momentum.
• General altcoin market: “Starting to see higher lows... [but] still a little bit weaker.” (Brendan)
• Some privacy coins (e.g., Monero) and select altcoins showing life.

3. Institutional Risk-On Sentiment & Macro Context

Big Banks Entering Crypto (Fidelity & Wells Fargo)

• Fidelity report discusses the possibility of a “super cycle” in crypto, citing:

  • Institutional buying via ETPs
  • Rising pro-crypto policies
  • Crypto decoupling/maturing relative to other financial assets

  “The crypto market as a whole is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500 and precious metals.” (Fidelity research clip, 18:10)

• Wells Fargo acknowledges lowered volatility and increased risk appetite (“risk-on” mood).

• Bryce’s Analysis:

  • BTC is the only major (top 10 by market cap) asset not setting new all-time highs—this could mean “catch-up” trade potential.
  • Institutions—who were previously hesitant—are now seeing opportunity.

  “All these in the top 10... are at or making all-time highs...except for bitcoin, which is far off its all-time highs... So maybe there's a value play there.” (Bryce, 23:23)

• Brendan’s Response:

  • It’s increasingly logical for investors to seek out “discounted” assets not at all-time highs.

  “People should be more willing to put their money into something that is not sitting at all-time highs and something that is in a long term uptrend but in a pullback.” (Brendan, 20:18)

4. Political Drama: Fed, Trump, and Market Volatility

DOJ Investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell

• Tension between President Trump and Fed chair Jerome Powell, intensified by a DOJ investigation over building renovations—a pretext for political pressure over monetary policy.

• Markets fear uncertainty, not simply bad news.

• “What do people fear the most? ...It is uncertainty, and that is what the markets fear the most.” (Brendan, 33:32)

• This ongoing battle could increase volatility in risk assets like crypto.

Fed’s Dovish Stance

• The Fed signals no rate hikes, maybe more cuts, and ultra-low inflation.
• Macro tailwinds remain strong for risk assets.

5. The Clarity Act: Regulatory Crossroads

What is the Clarity Act?

• Legislative effort to bring regulatory certainty to crypto markets.
• Seeks to address longstanding confusion over product legality, SEC lawsuits, inconsistent enforcement.

Perceived Market Impact

• Predictability will attract institutional money.

• Savings from fewer legal battles should enable innovation.

• Potential to lessen market manipulation.

  “The number one thing...was guys, we're okay... We just want clear regulation. And that's where the Clarity act comes in.” (Brendan, 36:07)

Real-Time Vote Swing & Drama

• Odds of passage were 80% earlier in the week (per Polymarket), then dropped to 16% due to new opposition (notably by Coinbase) over stablecoin yield provisions.

• “Brian...the odds are it’s going to fall somewhere in the middle...not going to stay at 15%.” (Bryce, 42:18)

• General consensus: Both sides in D.C. want regulatory clarity but are fighting over amendments.
• Brendan’s forecast: Even if the Act is delayed, it's unlikely to be killed; this is just part of the back-and-forth.

Matt Hougan's Metaphor:

• "The Clarity Act is the Punxsutawney Phil of crypto winter—it keeps sticking its head out..." (Paraphrased, 34:58 & 43:26)
• The Act represents the turning point from uncertainty (crypto winter) to positive momentum, but delays could lengthen the wait for “spring.”

6. Election Cycle and Crypto Policy

• Cathie Wood’s clip supports Bryce’s thesis: Trump and Congress likely to push further crypto-positive actions pre-midterms to secure the “crypto voter” demographic.

  “[Trump] is going to work with his crypto and AI czar... I actually think they will start buying [bitcoin for the strategic reserve]... the crypto community [vote]...” (Cathie Wood, 47:13)

• Policy momentum could be timed for maximal political impact in 2026.

7. Listener Q&A Highlights

• Questions touch on the possible Supreme Court tariff ruling’s potential market effects, highlighting the theme that uncertainty (not any single outcome) drives volatility.

• “There’s just too many uncertainties...I think we just have to wait and see.” (Brendan, 56:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Brendan (on BTC technicals):
  “You're starting to see some cracks in the bearish armor...cautiously optimistic about what we're seeing.” (06:48)

• Bryce (on market rotation):
  “Anybody that...has a pace of investing in kind of smart assets has to be looking at this chart and be like, hey, what's the top 25...asset...that might be able to have a catch up trade?” (24:44)

• Fidelity Research Clip:
  “...we might see something similar to what we have seen in commodities markets...dictated by steady buy-in by institutions focused on ETPs, pro-crypto policies, and (the market) maturing and deviating from the S&P and precious metals.” (18:10)

• Clarity Act as Turning Point:
  “The Clarity Act is the next big catalyst...the overwhelming response...was guys, we're okay...strict or loose, we just want it to be clear.” (36:07)

• Political Volatility:
  “What do people fear the most? ...It is uncertainty, and that is what the markets fear most.” (33:32)

• Cathie Wood (on Crypto Policy and Elections):
  “...I think [Trump] will start buying because I think this will help [with] the midterm elections...Part of the reason he won the presidency, I think, was the crypto community.” (47:13)

• Bryce (live market impact):
  “We gave it out at 15% (Clarity Act passing); already back up to 21%—are we market moving? Is this legal?” (51:37)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Listener Story & Podcast Purpose: 02:04
• BTC Technical Analysis: 06:48 – 13:58
• ETH Staking & Market Dynamics: 14:10 – 17:01
• Fidelity, Wells Fargo, Risk-On Banks: 18:10 – 21:00
• Institutional vs. Retail Rotation: 23:23 – 26:09
• Fed, Trump & Political Volatility: 28:37 – 34:24
• Clarity Act Deep Dive: 36:07 – 44:58
• Cathie Wood on Crypto Policy: 47:13
• Clarity Act Real-Time Odds Fluctuation: 42:18, 51:37
• Listener Q&A: 53:37 – 57:17

Tone & Style

The episode blends market savvy, technical expertise, and lighthearted banter. Brendan’s technical analysis is methodical but accessible, while Bryce injects humor and big-picture context. Both emphasize approachable education and honest takes on fast-moving news. The show’s style is upbeat, pragmatic, and responsive—reflecting the dynamic nature of crypto.

Summary Takeaways

• BTC and major alts are showing constructive technical setups; BTC in particular may be primed for a catch-up move if risk-on persists.
• Institutions are warming to crypto, especially as other risk assets hit all-time highs.
• Macroeconomic policy (dovish Fed, low inflation) provides tailwinds, but political uncertainty around the Fed and regulation still weighs on markets.
• The Clarity Act could unlock a new investment wave by removing legal ambiguity, but political wrangling continues and its passage is fluid.
• Crypto is becoming a significant factor in US political strategy and may see direct policy benefits approaching the midterms.
• Investors should remain adaptable and watch for real-time changes in both market structure and the policy landscape.

For ongoing education, listeners are encouraged to subscribe, check out Brendan’s TA course, and keep participating in the live podcast chats.