← CRYPTO 101
Loading summary
Transcript60 lines
- [00:00]
A
If you could only get one altcoin right now, get this one. I'm talking about the coin we believe has the strongest upside potential in today's market. After analyzing hundreds of altcoins, guys, this is the opportunity that keeps me awake with excitement all night. So here's why. It's got the perfect combination of strong fundamentals, proven team, and a catalyst that could send it significantly higher in the coming months. Yet it's still flying under the radar of many retail investors, which means you've still got time to get position before the crowd catches on. Look, we believe this is the perfect time to get in on this specific coin. So to get the full breakdown, just go to www.cryptorevolution.com coin right now. The window of opportunity will not stay open forever.
- [01:01]
B
All right, everybody, welcome back to the Crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. And it is a fun one today. Good morning to everybody that is with us live. A little crypto and coffee with my friend Brendan, who we have not had on the program a while. Brendan's been diving into the charts, just, you know, doing the research to get the year going and end the year on a high note as we did. So excited to have him back. We got a ton of technical analysis to cover with him. Some of the big banks, Fidelity, Wells Fargo are starting to lean risk on and are mentioning crypto in these risk on leanings. So we're going to bring that to you. Inflation's falling like a rock. There's some news in the Fed with the administration versus J PAL as there always is, but some new news that we need to cover. And then the center stage meat and potatoes of this episode is going to be the clarity act. There is a lot going on in D.C. with crypto that, you know, a lot of us in the space really think is going to kind of lead the charge in 2026. So we'll set the table for you on all today on this episode with my friend Brendan, who we haven't done a podcast in a while, my friend. I'm excited to have you here. Welcome back.
- [02:05]
C
I know, man. It feels good to be back. Happy new Year, everyone. I believe this is going to be our first one of the new year. We came back and we did one with our predictions video at the very start of the year. But then I got sick and I was away and all these other things. But, dude, the crypto market continues to move. There's a lot going on, especially on the price chart. Bitcoin still trying to put in a reversal. I would say that there's some pretty positive signs that we're going to take a look at today. But before I do this TiVo, I was. I took a little bit of a vacation over the holidays right. Right around New Year's, and I went down to the Bahamas for a little bit. You already know this story. And I was swimming, and I went up to the Swim up bar, and I was trying to grab a drink, and I had this gentleman come up to me, and he is. I'm sorry, did you say your name was Brendan? I said, yeah. And I thought, you know, maybe he was someone I was talking to the other night or something. He's like, dude, I watch you and TiVo on the crypto rundown all the time. I couldn't. Couldn't tell if it was you, but then I heard you say your name, and so I had to give him a shout out. You know, we love getting to meet you all. We love getting to interact with you all. Billy just had a lot of great things to say. He was TiVo. He might have been talking about you the most. He's like, oh, I love what TiVo brings. TiVo's the man. You guys crush the rundowns. Bryce on the podcast. I've been listening to those for forever. And so shout out to Billy. Billy, I know you're out there listening. He said he's an avid listener. And my favorite thing that he said, my favorite thing that he said, TiVo, was I listen to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, and then when there's chart stuff and visuals that I want, then I go back and I rewatch it on YouTube. And I was like, oh, man, our message is getting through to people so quick. Little cool story to kick off the new year. I don't want to spend too much time on it, but I just wanted to say we love doing these. We truly love interacting with all of you, and if you see us in public, we'd love to say hello and what's up.
- [03:58]
B
So, yeah, that was my favorite saga over that. It was against the weekend after New Year's. I was following. It was like, first it was you met Billy, and then Bryce and I were in the chat, and you're like, wait, go find him again. Like, we'll buy him a drink. Go get a drink with him. And then Billy's been all over. I think he. I think he commented on YouTube like you said. I think he DMed us on. Sorry, Said something on Twitter, like a post So I been interacting with you via social media, Billy. So thank you again and thanks to everybody for listening. It's gonna be a great year. But speaking of looking and wanting to see the charts, let's pull them up. I know we're kind of hasn't hasn't been any crazy price action except for maybe when the year first started, that first week. But we haven't done it with you Brendan. So let's, let's pick your brain of what you're seeing and before or as he's pulling it up. I do have the link for Brendan's six week trading course below. So I, I think right now you can sign up to get the alerts but I know the promotion is going to be starting to get a new six week course live in the next couple weeks. So if you're interested in doing this type of technical analysis, doing Brendan's six week course and then doing lives with Brendan twice a week, check out the link below. It's free to sign up for Brendan's trade alerts. You can get them below and then also get some more information around the course as that time of the week month comes. So Brendan, I'll hand it off to you. New year usually means new devices, phones, laptops, tablets, from grandma all the way down to the kids or at least spending more time online. That's been a good reminder to actually think about digital security again. I've been using Webroot specifically their total protection plan, which is an all in one option if you want coverage beyond just antivirus. What stood out to me is that it combines real time antivirus protection against things like malware and phishing scams, identity monitoring with alerts and and this is a big one. Up to $1 million in expense reimbursement for eligible out of pocket costs if identity theft ever becomes an issue. Total protection also includes tools like a password manager and web threat protection that blocks malicious sites before you visit them. Plus options to protect multiple devices and even family members, all without slowing your system down or throwing constant pop ups at you. So here's the deal. New year, new device. Whether you're upgrading tech or sticking with what you've got, this Now's the time to protect all your devices at 60% off with Webroot's trusted cyber security solutions. Visit webroot.com crypto101 and get 60% off again, that's webroot.com w e b r o-oot.com crypto101 for 60% off. This offer is only available through the crypto101 link. So make sure you use it webroot.com crypto101 and get up to 60% off their total protection plan this year. Choose protection that's right for you and live a better digital life with webrute.
- [06:49]
C
Yeah, I mean, let's start off with the charts first, TiVo and then we'll get into all the news and catalysts and everything else that's going on. But I mean, for the past couple of months, bitcoin's really just been consolidating and I think the best way to, to define this consolidation is watching Bitcoin between 94,000 on the high end, that is the clear resistance level and around 84,000 on the low end. Now we've seen ourselves kind of come from 94, come down, rise back up to 94, come down, rise back up to 94 and back up to 94 and back up to it again. The difference here is that, you know, we're keeping 94, 000 as a resistance level and we can see that. What, what is changing here is the support. The support was finding a lot of, you know, leverage, I guess you could say around 84, 000. That's been changing over the last couple of weeks. We've seen it go from its absolute bottom Trough of 80K to 84 to 85 almost up to 86 to 87 to 89. And we've been seeing support climb while resistance stays the same. Now for the first time since the October 10th breakdown in Bitcoin's price, we're seeing it back above the 50 day moving average in a very convincing manner. What I mean by that is we have the initial breakdown of the 50. We rejected it and rejected it and rejected it. We stayed beneath this pink or red line for the entire time in, in the past couple months, but now we're starting to break back above that. So if you're looking at this saying, hey, what is actually changing the, the key takeaways that I want to give you is that bitcoin is still hitting the same resistance level. It is seeing higher lows on a support line and it's breaking short term bearish structure by getting above the 50 day moving average for the first time since the breakdown and also getting above the 20 day moving average. And, and because it's above those, both of those now, it has formed a golden cross where the 20 day moving average has crossed upwards over the 50 day. So you're starting to see some cracks in the bearish armor, the cracks in the bearish argument. And you're starting to see some things that we haven't seen before, especially as price actions, getting above these moving averages and seeing higher high or higher lows. So I like that. I think from a bullish end, you're, you're seeing things that we really haven't seen since the October 10th meltdown of last year and that huge, massive liquidation event, the largest single day liquidation event that bitcoin has ever seen. And we're starting to see price action get back above there. And so again, I think if you're a bull, you're liking what you're seeing so far, I would not go so far as to say that this obliterates the entire bearish threat. I wouldn't go so far as to say this is a guaranteed reversal and we're, you know, we're proven that we've disqualified this bear run and we're turned around. I would not go that far yet. I think we're getting close, but we're seeing a lot of good early signs. Right before the break, before the holidays, we were saying, hey, if you look at all these different indicators about price, the one day rsi, the one week rsi, the one day macd, the Fearing greed index, if you look at all these, they're all at historic kind of low in turnaround points. The we only usually see at like the bottom of the market right before a turnaround. And so there's all of those indicators kind of firing as well. And we've talked about those a lot, right, probably a dozen times already. So I don't want to waste too much time. We'll talk about it again in a future video. But there, there are a lot of things at work here. And so when you're looking at bitcoin, it's looking as if this is a ascending triangle, which for people who don't know, it's a bullish formation where you have higher lows and two steady highs and pressure builds into the upside because the bulls are able to gain ground, hence why they have higher lows and the bears are not able to gain ground, showing that they don't have as much strength because they're not able to push price down. And so eventually price squeezes into the upside until the pressure builds and they can't handle it. And then typically speaking, the majority of the time with an ascending triangle, you have an explosion upward. So I think the big resistance areas here for bitcoin is you're going to have a smallish resistance at 100k around there roughly. And then 106k is going to be the next big level because that's the bottom of this all time high support zone and consolidation zone. And that's also where the 200 day moving average is. So looking a little bit higher here. If we can get a breakout. The only thing that invalidates this is if we start getting beneath the support line, we don't see higher lows, we're beneath the moving averages and you start seeing a crackdown. Well then that kind of invalidates this idea. But I think that this is an area where I want to be cautiously optimistic about what we're seeing. And there's also a couple of arguments of people saying, hey, there's it's overdue. We understand why crypto has been kind of suppressed downwards because of that largest liquidation event in its history and maybe some other things happening. However, people have been watching the rest of the markets, you know, M2, money supply, they've been watching that. They've been watching something like, you know, the S and P going the all time highs. They've been watching gold go to all time highs and silver go to all time highs. And it does. The people are starting to theorize that there is this game of catch up that crypto should. And in my opinion, I think that it will have. Now again, you know, that's just my opinion, but I think that the way that I view it is that it's just a matter of time until Bitcoin sees a catch up to all those different assets that I was just showing and talking about. And that's one of the big things that I am willing to bet on. You know, obviously we're going to be a little bit biased over here. TiVo. I like crypto. I own a lot of crypto. We have a whole show about crypto. But that's truly where I believe or what I believe. And I'm putting my money, you know, where my mouth is. But if we look at just briefly, I know we got a lot to talk about just to wrap this up. If you're looking at the rest of these altcoins, you know, Ethereum in a pennant, it's squeezing here, you see lower highs and higher lows. So pressure is building over in here. Solana trying to break out of this big sideways channel that it's been in. You saw it break down here in November. It's been sideways ever since this, it's trying to break out. If it breaks out of here, next stops probably the 200 day moving average up at 170 and you see this thing again just pressure building into the upside. So let's keep a close eye on Solana trying to break out of a multi month consolidation, a three month consolidation. XRP little bit weaker in the market. So you know if you're an XRP fan, again nothing against it as a project but you see a very clear downwards trend line. It has to break this. This has been the plague of XRP for over six months now and every time it gets near this it just gets swatted down. You need to see a breakout of this trend line. XRP a little bit weaker relative to the rest of the market. And then general altcoins here starting to get a little bit of a mixed reaction. You have some rallying sign, some kind of seeing higher lows. In fact most of them are starting to see higher lows and a little bit of a, of a resume to the upside. But time will still tell. I think the general altcoin market's still a little bit weaker but I was watching one play over the weekend, you know you have some of these privacy plays really starting to take a run over the weekend or at least in the start of this week. Monero was one of the big ones that I saw over there and so. And also shout out to Pump. You know this is something that been watching and this thing's looking like it's trying to have a little bit of a breakout as well. So I mean man.
- [14:11]
B
Brendan. Yeah. I have a question for you. So pull up Ethereum just for a visual and we covered this last week but there's been a lot of data especially on crypto Twitter timeline of the amount of staking that's been going on kind of in this price range. Obviously we cover, you know, bit. Mine continues to stake. We basically talk about that every episode, which is an interesting kind of first time of a DAT staking that especially that large of a number of Ethereum. But then there's kind of the, the validators are coming out. It's like okay, before Christmas into the new year when everything was kind of falling, people were rushing out of the doors because if you want to unstake Ethereum it's not instant, right? It takes some time and there was a little bit of a backlog. But recently the data that's been coming out has been showing that people trying to unstake has basically dropped to zero and the staking queue just keeps building and building. So again just, just wanted to pick your thoughts on, on pairing that with what you're seeing on the charts, is there any correlation? No correlation, but I, we covered it on Friday and it was an interesting conversation.
- [15:13]
C
Yeah, I mean staking in regards to like staking on Ethereum, right?
- [15:17]
B
Yeah, just the queue to start. People are at this price level at, you know, 3K to 3200 is the, the staking queue is rising.
- [15:26]
C
Yeah.
- [15:26]
B
Which is, you know, obviously a signal of, you know, long term holders.
- [15:30]
C
I would agree, I think that, that it is a signal of long term holders and it makes sense, right. When prices are lower, people are thinking, okay, I'm going to be holding for longer because price is low. If it was at all time highs, people are less likely to stake for long periods of time because they're saying okay, well it's at all time highs, I'm likely up money if it's at all time highs. And the odds are I probably want to take profits while it's somewhere near all time highs in profit. You really don't want to look at it, crash down and say, okay, well now's the perfect time to pull out. Right. So I think what that means is that you are seeing people get in. The people that are the ones getting in are going to be the long term holders. And that's why the Ethereum staking queue is, is rising is because these are all people that are getting in saying, hey, I want to stake, I want to earn a yield on my money and I want to be in for a long period of time. So if they have to wait a couple of days or, you know, more than that. However long it is these days, I always get it mixed up between like Solana and Ethereum and all. Anyway, it's usually a couple of days. For some projects it's a couple of weeks, which is crazy, but people don't really care. You know, it's like, hey, if you can get in and you can stake and you can pull your money out, then that's fine. But yeah, I think you're right. I think you hit the nail on the head in the sense that these are long term holders. It makes sense that as price goes lower, more people want to stake because they want to accumulate more. And if they can do that at lower prices, then the more the merrier.
- [17:02]
B
Yeah. Again it's just all the, all the data we find and all this, the narratives on crypto, especially social media, just kind of try to parse through and see how they fit into your own thesis. But I'll take over sharing the screen as we transition into the next topic. So basically moving on, we have two big banks that are kind of leaning towards a little bit of risk on. So the first clip I'm pulling up here is from Fidelity or it's breaking down a report from Fidelity about the four year cycle. So this is something that we talked about on the year end episode with Bryce and Brendan. Kind of, you know, a lot of the narrative in the space is that the, you know, traditional four year old cycle for bitcoin and crypto could, could basically be dead. And technically it is already ended because bitcoin had a down year. Right? So that, that's kind of already true. But could it, could it lead us into a super cycle? And so Fidelity kind of published a report and this video is kind of breaking that down. So I'm not going to play the whole thing. I'm going to play about 40 seconds and then we can discuss. So let's take a look or dips.
- [18:10]
D
And I want to give a shout out to Fidelity Digital Assets research team which talks about the super cycle mechanism. And we might see something similar that we have seen in the commodities market in the 2000s and that's dictated by three big factors. One is you're seeing this steady buy in buy institutions focused on ETPs in the domestic market, especially in the U.S. you're seeing pro crypto policies. And then the third, which I'm really excited to talk about, is we are also seeing how the crypto market as a whole is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500 and precious metals.
- [18:46]
C
So that's great.
- [18:48]
B
And then I'm going to switch this over right into another 30 second hit. So this is Wells Fargo talking about taking risk and including risk on being crypto. And so after we listen to this, we can kind of merge the two thoughts together and kind of lay out our thoughts. Brennan, let's get into this one.
- [19:06]
E
Volatilities are really low. So just think about implied volatility as a price of insurance. The VIX is super low. Foreign exchange volatility is really low, down to less than 10th percentile. Most currencies, interest rate volatility was kind of a laggard. It's crashed down over the last few months. What that tells me is investors are saying we're pretty comfortable. Are they overconfident? Maybe, but probably not quite yet. But still, I think it's telling us that people are pretty sanguine about taking risk right now. They're taking more of it as far.
- [19:34]
F
As I can tell.
- [19:35]
C
Karen.
- [19:36]
B
So the thoughts Are, you know, right now again, the S&P 100 in NASDAQ and the Russell, they're all kind of hovering around all time highs, if not setting new all time highs daily. And then marking back from how we covered the biggest liquidation in crypto history in October. You know, our space has definitely taken a hit. But there could be a catch up trade there if risk, if it goes risk on right there, there's a beta of a catch up trade. And I think that kind of taking the first clip of how we've talked about how there's all these ETFs, ETPs and then what we're going to talk about next being the legislation is again rolling that red carpet for kind of crypto to be a part of this risk on thesis if it goes that way.
- [20:19]
C
Yeah. And I think the world is moving risk on. Like, I think it makes sense that everyone, especially the banks and everyone else want to become more risk on. I mean, you have, I would say, a fairly dovish Fed, someone who said we're not hiking rates this year, we're only looking at cutting. You have a new federal chair coming in who wants to cut even more. You have really low inflation. If you look at true, I mean, I don't want to spoil this, we're going to talk about it. But if you look at truflation, we're gonna, I mean, that's under 2%. Yeah. Pull it up. Yeah. I mean it's under 2% and the other inflation reports are saying obviously it's a little bit higher. But I think truflation is the most accurate source of this. I mean, inflation is low. The Fed is dovish. The Fed is cutting. And you have, I mean, asset prices across the board doing well. I mean, you've pretty good statistics no matter where you look, the price of energy is falling and everything. And so I think this is a good market for, for crypto. And again, this helps me affirm my belief that it really should just be a matter of time until we see this thing take off again. I think the number one thing that we're waiting here for the crypto market in order to become fully like risk on and, you know, ready to send it again, is just whether or how soon we can shake off the bear, the bearish move that we saw in October, that is the biggest thing. When can we fully shake off all of the dust and the dirt that came with that huge liquidation event? And that's what we're still waiting to see. So I would agree with them. And I think it makes sense for companies especially looking now because if you look at bitcoin relative to the rest of the market, if you look at crypto, all of crypto relative to the rest of the market, this thing is something that is beaten down a little bit more. And I think that if people are looking at anything in here, they're looking at the crypto market and saying, hey, this is probably oversold in comparison to the rest of the market. There's probably some value to get here. And so now what investors are starting to do is they're coming in, right? People are coming in, they're going to start getting their New Year's bonuses, they're going to start getting some cash on hand. People are already risk on so they want to kind of get rid of their cash. And what they're doing here is they're left with a problem. They come in, they look at everything and they say, okay, well I could put my money into the S and P at all time highs. There's that, you know, that scares me a little bit. I could put my money in the gold, that's at all time highs. I could put my money into silver, that's at all time highs. The only really other thing that you have left is okay, well I could put my money into bitcoin or crypto which is significantly away from all time highs. So maybe there's a value play there. And if we know one thing about people, I think that at least in a perfect world, people should be more willing to put their money into something that is not sitting at all time highs and something that is in a long term uptrend but in a pullback. And I think that's where bitcoin is at right now. And I think it's going to start appealing to the average investor and we're seeing that with retail. But now because of the articles that you just showed TiVo, we're starting to see that the institutional side is starting to think about it the same way and they're starting to look at it in that kind of same light.
- [23:23]
B
Couldn't, couldn't agree more. And actually going off the sheet here to share this tab, we haven't shared the market cap by everything for assets by market caps in a while and it builds perfectly off. Your point is like okay, all these in the top 10 even, you know, even if you go down to, you know, meta, I think is off a little bit from its all time high. But down to Tesla, Berkshire Lilly, Walmart, I think Walmart has been on a generational Run all the banks are at all time highs. So anything in the top 10 here, for the most part, without pulling up each chart specifically, you can basically say anything in the top 10 here is @ near or making all time highs in the last couple of weeks. Except for bitcoin, which is, you know, far off. Its all time highs if you're comparing it to the rest of the basket here. And so again, the average person that does not like crypto, does not like bitcoin, isn't looking and thinking of bitcoin being at a discount. But when, when kind of taking what Brendan said is like, well, who is? And these asset managers who not only are building and trying to sell bitcoin and crypto products, but they're also investors themselves. So anybody that I think has a pace of, of investing in kind of smart assets has to be looking at this chart and be like, hey, what's, what's the top 25? What's the top 50 asset in the world that might be able to have a catch up trade? And you know, again, you can't time the market. Nobody has a crystal ball. But I was kind of thinking along the lines of what you were saying. There is just, it makes sense for, for that.
- [24:55]
C
Trade. Yeah, it does. And I think we're going to see more and more people gravitate towards that side of the table tvo and.
- [25:04]
B
I think it invites, I think what it does is it also when we were covering, when we were covering the all time highs, we would have this segment where we would talk about the A block, B block, C block on tv. And it goes both ways. When crypto's crashing in October, bitcoin's the A block, Bitcoin's dead, bitcoin's dying. But also on the way up, you know, when it's breaking 90, going to 95, 100, 105, 110, 115, it's in the A block. And everybody's like, oh my God, bitcoin, bitcoin. You start to see people come out of the woodwork that don't even believe in the tech, don't even believe in the asset. But though, specifically I'm thinking of Steve Weiss from cnbc. He always says, like, I don't believe in this. I think it's, you know, basically a pet rock. But it's a great trading vehicle. And I'm in it here at 90 because I think it's going to go higher. So when you have that divergence from price that that invites a whole nother level of traders. So there's people who are buying and stacking for long term and there's people that are just purely speculation and traders. And I think we're kind of getting into that window that sets up a good trade for people even if they don't want to be long term.
- [26:08]
C
Holders.
- [26:09]
B
Yeah. Are you interested in effortlessly growing your Bitcoin portfolio? I sure am. The Gemini credit card earns you Bitcoin back on every purchase. Use it just like any other credit card when you buy lunch, gas, or even just your weekly groceries and you'll earn up to 4% back instantly in Bitcoin or one of over 50 other cryptos straight to your account. All that with no annual fee. And right now you can grab a $200 bitcoin welcome bonus. It's the easiest way to start building your Bitcoin stack. Guys, you've heard us talk about Gemini now every single episode and we love and appreciate that they've been a sponsor because we use their products. Whether it's the exchange or the card. They have been leaders in the space for so long. So if you're interested in earning crypto rewards for your everyday spending, go to gemini.com card to learn more. Terms apply. See the link in the description for more information regarding rates and fees issued by web bank. To Qualify for the $200 crypto intro bonus, you must spend $3,000 in your first 90 days. Some exclusions to instant rewards apply. This is not investment advice and trading Crypto involves risk. Check Gemini's website for more details on rates and.
- [27:09]
G
Fees. Whether you're walking barefoot in the snow, escaping for a walk on your lunch break, or trekking halfway across the world for a lush view, it feels good when we unplug and connect to our simpler side. If only our everyday nutrition were that simple. It's time to simplify your wellness routine with Cachava. Getting the nutrition we need from that graveyard of supplements in our cupboards is often overcomplicated. Just two scoops of Cachava's all in One Nutrition Shake and you've got 25 grams of protein, 6 grams of fiber, greens, adaptogens and so much more. Plus, it actually tastes delicious. No fillers, no nonsense, just the good stuff your body craves. So instead of adding to your backstock of supplements that over promise and under deliver, keep it simple with just two scoops that have the highest quality ingredients. Simplify your nutrition@kachava.com and use code NEWS. New customers get $20 off an order of two bags or more. Now through January 31st. That's Kachava kashava.com code NEWS if.
- [28:10]
H
You'Re an H vac technician and a call comes in, Grainger knows that you need a partner that helps you find the right product fast and hassle free. And you know that when the first problem of the day is a clanking blower motor, there's no need to break a sweat. With Grainger's easy to use website and product details, you're confident you'll soon have everything humming right along. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it.
- [28:37]
C
Done. Spot on, man. And you know, with this it sounds all hunky dory, right? We're saying this and it sounds all good. There has been a little bit of drama that, that we had happen over the last couple of days and we have a nice clip from it. So if you haven't seen it already, I mean we've, we've talked about it. You've seen it. There's been beef for the last year between President Donald Trump and the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. And they've gone back and forth exchanging blows and this and that. Well, the things have escalated, right? He's Trump has said in the past, oh, I want to fire Jerome Powell. The markets didn't like it. I was actually doing a little bit of digging. And there's been more drama between the Federal Reserve and presidents in the past. Like you've seen the government and the in the Federal Reserve go and get into heated arguments and disagreements a lot more than you would think. So as I was looking at this, I was like, oh, this isn't really that uncommon. Like we've seen this happen quite a bit before and it gave me a little bit more reassurance. But there tends to be market volatility around these events. So let's go ahead and play the first part of the clip here from Jerome Powell just talking about how he's being investigated by the Department of.
- [29:53]
F
Justice. Good evening. On Friday, the Department of justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. That testimony concerned in part a multi year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings. I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure. This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role. The Fed, through testimony and other public disclosures, made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or.
- [31:15]
B
Intimidation. So the summary, a summary of those words is, we know there's been the back and forth. There's that famous photo of. Let me see if I can find it. Trump. What was it? Trump visits the Fed. So remember when they all had the. Remember when they all had the hard one? Yeah, there it is. I got it. So, you know, there's this project going on of renovating the buildings, and that was a, that was a great picture of them in the hard hats doing the tour. This is a political playing card. I think we can all agree there. I don't know if you have a different take on that, Brendan, but it's just a political playing card. And I think the most interesting part is again, friend of the show, Scott Besson, came out over the weekend. There were tons of reports that, you know, Besson, foreign President Trump over the weekend, that this DOJ criminal investigation into the f, into the Fed could, could create a mess and scare markets to be like, hey, if you're really going to put the pedal down and go after this, like it's going to spook the markets specifically because it has nothing to do with the policy of it. Right. Like they're going after the renovations again. There's, you know, if you, if you even just put on the news for a second, you know, all you're going to get these days is negative press around, you know, government contracts and kind of what Elon was doing with Doge. So is, is there probably some wasteful spending in there? Absol. But is there wasteful spending on every government contract? I think we've come to learn in the last couple years, probably. But no, go.
- [32:41]
C
Ahead. That's where it feels like the disconnect is, is because there's, you know, the administration is saying, hey, we're going after this because of the renovations. And then in that speech that we just listened to, he's like, this isn't because of the reservations or reservation, the renovations. It's because of our policy. And so you have two sides saying two different things. And I think that's where people are scared. And so you have to go back, like, to the most basic law, one of the most basic laws of economics, which is, what do people fear the most? And it is uncertainty. It's not bad news, it's not good news. It is uncertainty, and that is what the markets fear the most. And so when you have two different sides saying two different things, and you have arguably the most to the power, the. Excuse me, the two most powerful people on the planet going at each other, getting in the legal battles, one being the Federal Reserve, one being the United States government. The reason why we bring this up is to not do politics or anything else is to say, hey, this could have an impact on the risk markets, and Bitcoin's part of the risk markets. And so when we're looking at this, we just have to understand. And again, our goal here is to always go through all the news, break it down, make it understandable, and then present it to you and say, hey, here's what is going on, here's what could stem out of this, and then let you kind of make your own decisions from there. And so that's all we want to do with this, is to get the news to you, break it down, show both sides and what they're saying, and then you can make your own decision about how this might affect yourself. And so, again, that's always the big takeaway from this, is to not say, hey, let's cover politics or this and that. Say, hey, let's talk about things that could impact the markets and especially the crypto industry in this case. So that's the way that we look at.
- [34:25]
B
This. The storyline's not going away because the new Fed chair is going to be picked any day now, it feels like. I think that's going to be announced. I would, if I was a betting man, it would be in the next four weeks, definitely leading up to the next decision. Because, you know, Trump wants whoever he's going to pick to basically be the mouthpiece against whatever pal's going to do. Because, you know, he seems to be obviously grown. Grown tired with, with Pal and not doing what he wants, which could be right, could be wrong. Again, that, like you said, it's not political of what we're saying is right. It's just this stuff is, is going to affect the markets as a whole and is going to affect liquidity and, and it's going to be a big storyline. So Kind of teeing it up there, more drama. It feels like reality tv, which makes a lot of sense because the President United States used to be a reality TV star. It is quite. It is quite entertaining, but it's something that you do have to research and digest and bring into your. Whether it's trading or investing thesis, it's. It's a part of it. And the government is. Is a good transition because the government is going to be a big piece of crypto this year with the Clarity Act. So the Clarity act feels like it's taking center stage. There's a lot of tweets about it of kind of, you know, there's a lot going on of adding stuff, trying to take away stuff. And I know you saw this tweet as well of a friend of the show, Matt. Matt Hogan. Yep. And kind of teeing it up that the Clarity Act. I love this analogy. Is Punxsutawney Phil of the crypto winner. It keeps sticking its head out. And, you know, basically, I think what he's saying is if. If he comes out and sees his shadow, if it's real, it's gonna. It's gonna help the crypto prices. But what, what did you. I know you put this link on the sheet too, so I'll hand it off to you. What are your thoughts on teeing up the Clarity.
- [36:08]
C
Act? Yeah, so the Clarity act is the next big catalyst that I think every crypto person should be watching the Clarity act for. For people who don't know, this is essentially trying. There's a couple of big takeaways from it, but it's essentially trying to do exactly what the name says and add clarity to the crypto market for everyone. If you remember the last four or five years, there was crypto companies adding products and then. And then getting rid of those products because they thought they could do it and then they couldn't. There's crypto companies out there that were adding new features and then they get sued for them. There were some that were taking away features and trying to be compliant, and then they were still getting sued and they were getting ran after by the SEC and other people. And so there was all sorts of confusion. There was coins that were being listed and then unlisted coins that you had traded and owned and then got taken away. There's really big crypto projects that were under fire and getting sued, XRP being a big one of them. And I mean, it was just endless. Like, even Uni Swap, you know, was getting sought after in Coinbase and A bunch of other people. And so this created confusion. And part of the. The new guidance on crypto is let us clarify these things. And that's been the overwhelming response. I mean, we talk to Coinbase, we talk to Robinhood, we talk to the ETF providers, we talk to the big banks, the asset managers. We do all this on the podcast. The number one thing that we got over the course of those years was, guys, we're okay. Like, obviously, we want looser regulation, and we want it to be more crypto friendly, but we're okay if it gets stricter. We're okay if it gets looser. We just want it to be clear. We can adapt and mold ourselves to either direction. But what we can't do right now is anything, because if we lean in either direction, they come after us because there's no clear regulation. And the. The. It's so flexible that they can come after us no matter what. And so all these different groups and companies and banks and everyone were saying, we just want clear regulation. And that's where the Clarity act comes in. And so it essentially gives a couple of things. Predictability, right? And if we have predictability, then you get more investment. You also get them being able to do a lot more things. You pe. You have people, especially institutional investors, who feel safe putting their money in crypto because there is predictability, because there is no longer the uncertainty. In fact, the whole point of the Clarity act is to do the opposite of uncertainty and give clarity. So there's that. And that should bring more investment. You will have reduced legal battles. You have reduced legal battles. Then all of these different entities or businesses or whatever they are that are doing and managing this stuff and working with it well, then they get to save on legal fees, and they get to actually build and innovate and grow. And then the final thing is that what hopefully will be one of the core takeaways of the Clarity act is that this has the potential to lower market manipulation. And I think that's. People are going to hear that. It's a buzzword, and people will want that because you always hear, oh, this is price manipulation. Oh, the markets are being manipulated. Oh, the only reason why we're still down here is because of manipulation. If you truly do believe that and the Clarity act gets passed, this should be something to combat at least certain extents of market manipulation. And so there's three or four different ways that you could look at this, but I think all of them are positive for crypto. And this is going to be getting voted on in a couple of days. And as that chart that you, you I'm trying to see. Yeah, we have it on the screen still. It's saying that the Clarity act is at an 80% chance of approval this year. Now that doesn't necessarily mean it has to happen this month. Right? I think it's being talked about in a couple of days here. But at some point this year it is an 80% chance of approval, which is pretty dang high for a prediction.
- [39:56]
B
Market. The other thing is, sorry, like, so there was news coming out of the weekend of the, the fight. This is kind of sorry I didn't pull it up in time, but it dropped off a cliff over the weekend. So now, now we're down to a 16 chance of the Clarity act being signed into law after the weekend because there was a lot of back and forth over the Coinbase. So Coinbase came out and said, you know, they're, they're going to push back and I'll bring up that tweet in a second. They're looking at, you know, they're fighting the banks basically because the banks don't want the stablecoin yield to be able to be given to the people because they're worried about flight risk. Right. Like if you can go and get your idle money and get all of a sudden 2, 3% yield, you're going to leave your bank account that's giving you literally nothing. And then obviously Cynthia Loomis has been tweeting out and just kind of getting the, the final things to put it through. But there was a lot of news that broke over the weekend. I'm, I'm personally not well enough versed in all the negativity that happened. But I do know that Coinbase and I'll bring up that tweet now. I think I had it up. Here we go. Was, was saying they might pull support from the Clarity Act. So again when you have one of the, the biggest people, you know, the CEO of Coinbase who we said has been in D.C. non stop literally doing press hits from the rotunda inside of Congress is saying hey, we've been working on this but now they're trying to change some things and we might pull our support from. Seems to have been given brackish water from where we were just a week.
- [41:25]
C
Ago. Well that, that changes things. Breaking.
- [41:32]
B
News. And literally in the last day, the tweet we pulled up was from January 12th at 5:27 and I just pulled up the live poly market ads in, in the last day. It's Went from Yesterday it was 80% and then today it's down to, to 15. So some people are making some money. They're trading on the poly markets and the cow. She's. But you know, that's what happens with, with crypto. When you're doing live events like we do here on the Crypto 101 podcast and you're trying to bring you guys news of what's happening, it's like there's always stuff moving around and changing right before our.
- [42:07]
C
Eyes. Wow. Well, that'll do it. Here's the thing. I think that regardless, this is going to get settled. I think 16% for the entire year is crazy. I'd understand if the odds for January.
- [42:18]
B
Were. I mean, I'm looking at this. So Brian and I talk about the. You know, we bring up the trading markets all the time for prediction markets. I'm. I'm looking at this being like, I think I got to hop on and, and get a little wager here for a yes, because odds are it's going to fall Somewhere in. In the middle would be my guess. It's not going to stay at 15%. So, you know, not personal financial advice, but that seems like you could maybe get a little action there for a.
- [42:42]
C
Trade. Yeah, no, I would agree. That's the way that I would look at this is like, I think it being at 15%, probably a little bit too low, a little bit of a knee jerk reaction. But hey, the show goes on. And again, I think that both sides want this to get passed, so it's not like it's gonna not get passed. It's not like, oh, one side hates it, one side loves it. It's like, no, both sides want it. They just think that there should be amendments that better fit to their perspective. And so I'm sure they'll go back and forth and they'll come to an agreement and we'll come back to this and that'll be that. But I do wonder what Matt Hogan has to say about this now, because if you go back to his tweet TiVo, he was essentially saying that this is. Where is it the Punxsutawney. Am I saying that right? The Punxsutawney.
- [43:27]
B
Phil. Yeah, Punxsutawney Phil. Do you know who Punxsutawney Phil is.
- [43:30]
C
Brandon? I do, yes. The groundhog who Petes his head out and if he comes out or. And looks at his own shadow, determines how long or short the winner will be or how much longer it'll.
- [43:39]
B
Last. Right, that is.
- [43:41]
C
Correct. Okay. Well, he's saying like, hey, this is the Paxitani bill of the crypto winner. And when I say him, you know, the Clarity Act. Right. And so I'm curious to get his thoughts now. We'll have to monitor his X account, and if he does give us some more thought saying, hey, you know, Phil didn't look at his shadow, or Phil did look at his shadow being the Clarity act, getting essentially pushed down the pipeline. What does that change and how is his view on it? For people who don't know, Matt Hogan is a leader in the space. He's the CIO of Bitwise, who's one of the primary bitcoin ETF providers, and they run a huge business over there. And we've had him on Friend of the Pod. But, yeah, curious to get his thoughts on this. You know, it certainly does change things a little bit because people were thinking that this was going to be a really high chance of approval in Q1, and now it looks like that's no longer going to be the case. So does that push the crypto winner into a more extended period? I don't know. I think that this is kind of just icing on the top to really send the crypto market back to the upside. But I don't think that the crypto market can't recover unless we get this right. Right. It's a really good catalyst if we do get it. But I don't think it's unrecoverable if we don't get it. I think that that's too far in that direction. So I think it.
- [44:59]
B
Feels. I've been thinking about the Clarity Act. It kind of feels similar to, like, the election where, you know, people were kind of waiting to see which way the election was going to go. And then once it, you know, once it was for sure that Trump was going to win, you know, bitcoin rocketed and crypto was rocketing, so it kind, you know, I don't think it's. History doesn't necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. Right. So it feels something to that. But I feel like with this there's a lot more insiders passing legislation. Right. There's a lot more insiders involved. There's a lot more knowledge to go around. And so I think you're, you know, even if we'll watch the poly market odds, which will be a great thing to watch, but at the same time, you know, I think you'll see the price action move before it's. You're not going to Wake up one morning and the Clarity act is going to be passed. There's going to be a lot more movement before that. So all the more reason to subscribe. If you're new to the YouTube on the bottom right, just hit our logo, click subscribe. Give the video a thumbs up if you're enjoying it. It really helps us grow. And again, if you're on the audio, leave us a review. It really works. But huge, huge chat today. We got Grant, we got Zen, we got golf ad, we got Michael McNuts in the chat saying that he's going on to Calcium Polymarket to place his wagers as we speak. Kevin's here. We had some questions, so we'll do the questions at the end. But it's a perfect transition into this clip of Cathy Wood that I pulled, which is something that we, we've been talking about. Me specifically, my take of the year was, hey, this administration is going to lean heavy into crypto policies at some point this year because of the midterms. And they know how successful they were getting the crypto vote, the crypto community vote, which is, I think, going to be another, you know, another election cycle of trying to go after that demographic. And so I was saying, hey, at some point, you know, the Clarity act is one thing, or buying some bitcoin for the strategic reserve at, you know, obviously they have to do it at no, no cost to the taxpayer, but figuring out a way to do that. I think there's something big coming in 26 that is going to appeal to the crypto voter specifically for midterms. And I've been kind of saying that now for a couple months and I saw this clip of Cathie Wood and I thought it was a similar take. And, you know, I appreciate Kathy listening to the show and taking, taking my thoughts and, and kind of agreeing with me. So let's listen to.
- [47:14]
I
Kathy. 2026 is in the US the midterm election. And President Trump does not want to be a lame duck. So I have a feeling that he is going to work with his crypto and aizar right to do a few things. One, make sure we get that de minimis ruling through. Make sure because grassroots is where a lot of what we've been talking about is going to happen. But also, it seems as though there's been reticence about actually buying bitcoin for the strategic reserve. So far, it's confiscated. The original intent was to own a million bitcoins. So I actually think they will start buying because I think this will Help Trump in a couple of ways. The midterm elections. Part of the reason he won the presidency, I think, was the crypto community. Yes. And another reason, of course, is his family is all in on bitcoin and other crypto assets. And they have. We talked about the DATs earlier. They've kind of fallen apart this year. So, um, I think he's got all kinds of reasons to do this, but the most important one is he does not want to be a lame.
- [48:47]
B
Duck. I mean, credit. Credit to me. I don't know. Pretty. Pretty. No, I love Cathie Wood and I don't know, just feels good to have a take out there and then, you know, the big, big names in the space start having the same take. I mean, this was dated from last week. And, you know, I've been talking about this for. For a month now, so it all. It all makes sense. Again, we've said it on the show. She basically said the same thing I did. Go and pull up Matt Hogan's latest tweet. Basically talking about how it seems that the banks yield updates. Banks have won this round on stablecoin coin yield for now. I guess that's a draft into the clarity act. Page 189 says companies cannot pay interest just for holding balances. You can earn rewards, but only if they're tied to opening account or activity like making transactions and staking. So idle cash, I guess, in the stablecoin realm is not eligible for yield according to this Update on page 189. And then, you know, Matt Hogan.
- [49:51]
C
Reacts well, I think that Cathie woods, going back to that point, I think she has a. And her right, because it's your original take and she took it from you. She saw the crypto rundown and then went on there and said it because. Because of ut, though that's actually what happened. But no, you know, I think that you guys do have a good point that with Kathy and all this stuff around crypto right now, it almost feels like crypto needs a little bit of a bump because she makes the point that a lot of people voted for, like, part of the reason he won the election is because people were voting on the crypto industry. Now, the crypto industry has probably been the worst performing industry since he got elected. And so it kind of begs the question of could that hurt him? Could people change their mind? And again, these are all just thoughts that are going into my head of if nothing changes. I would imagine that that's kind of the case. Right. I would imagine if nothing changes and nothing happens, then you probably lose votes because of the way that it's performed against everything else. And so the way to remedy that is your original take TiVo is, hey, something needs to happen. Maybe we buy more bitcoin, maybe do we do more crypto legislation, which they have done a lot, right? It's not to say, oh, they haven't done anything. A lot has happened. A ton has happened in the last year. It's just unfortunate that prices haven't done as well to kind of follow all the positive catalyst. So maybe something will happen. I almost think something has to happen from that end. You know, maybe it's the treasury, maybe it's something else. Again, I'm biased over here. I would love to see money get used to buy bitcoin. Take my tax dollars, take the tariff money and put that into it. I don't care. I just want to see him used. So that's my, that's what I.
- [51:37]
B
Think. I mean, sometimes you got to go online and pump your own bags. Speaking of great, speaking of great takes, before we take some questions in the chat, you, I mean, this is why you listen to crypto101. Nearly 10 minutes ago, we were looking at the Clarity act signed into law. Breaking news, the last day went from 80 to, to 15%. I gave it out at 15%. I was like, that looks like a good buy. Already back up to 21%, Brendan. Already back up to 21%. Am I a market? Are we market moving? Is this, is this legal? Hand up. I don't.
- [52:08]
C
Know. Hey, we're live. We did this when bitcoin was pushing the all time highs, if you remember, around 100k. We pumped it. We were the reason it went over there. We pumped it before. We'll pump the odds. But no, you know, obviously we're joking and all jokes aside, but TiVo, I got a real question on this for people who don't know. I'm not a sports bettor. I, I'm. The first time I ever bet was when I saw TiVo for the first time and I was meeting the guys and the guys got me to bet on a football game or, or something like that. I think we did a parlay. I'm not even sure. But my question for this is, is this like does the, the, the prediction markets or does P market work in the same way where you can buy in at 15 and then you can sell out at 40 or do you have to run the bet.
- [52:54]
B
Until. No, no. Yeah. If there's long as there's liquidity in that market, you can sell out at a profit before it results. Really, what happens? Yeah. Now traditionally in sports betting, like if you go to a casino and you just buy, you know, hey, I want the Patriots to win tonight. You can't cash out the, the apps. If you're doing any of the apps gambling, they're sometimes some of them offer cash outs, but it is different, it's not the same. So in, in sports gambling, you're betting against the casino, you're playing the house, and that's how the odds are aligned. And that's why all these poly marketing kalshi are getting legalized because you're actually, you're not playing against the house, you're playing against the market. You're betting against other people. So the market's created, crowdsourced, so it's not technically the same as.
- [53:37]
C
Gambling. I like.
- [53:39]
B
It. But yeah, I mean, look at that. We gave it out at 15% already. Up to 21 market movers here at crypto101. So let's, let's see, let's get some questions here. Zen style. What are your thoughts on the Supreme Court ruling if they overturn the Trump tariff revenue, will that be bearish for the crypto market? It's a great question. I think it is just my take off the top of my head because I have thought about this is maybe it'll give the markets indigestion. So you're gonna get volatility just like any big decision that happens. But I don't know that, that I'm not an economist. I've never studied tariffs, so I don't have a great take on the specifics. Just as like a holistic view of it. Okay, the Supreme Court's going to overrule it. So then, so what? So then America has to start like, we have to start writing checks back to countries. Like, I don't think that's going to happen. I, I don't under. Like if it gets overruled, then it's like, okay, you can't do this anymore. Would kind of feels like the ruling would be. It's not. You're gonna have to go and take all the tariff money and go give it back. I don't, I don't think the administration would do that even if they were told to do.
- [54:54]
C
It. I don't think they would fight.
- [54:55]
B
That. Yeah, they wouldn't do it. So it just, I think again, Brendan said it earlier, it's the uncertainty. See the. Oh, what does this mean when it, when it first gets announced. I don't. And I don't think it would be crypto specific. I think it would be markets as a whole would. Would be like, oh, my God, what does this mean? And there'd be some volatility. And then whatever the outcome truly is, I, I don't think it really matters one. One way or the.
- [55:16]
C
Other. Yeah, no, exactly, man. I think you hit the nail on the head. The uncertainty is the big thing there. And, yeah, I don't know if it would be a bad thing if, if it does, it would just be because, hey, it spooks the markets or, yeah, it spooks the markets. And maybe there's some, Some collateral damage that comes out of that. And that seems to be kind of the, the way I've seen people. It's hard. Originally it was like, hey, this would be really bad. Now I've seen people saying, hey, it's going to be good. And so now I see people kind of taking a 50, 50 split of some people saying, oh, if they reverse everything, it would be so bad and it would change. It would create so much uncertainty about what's possible. And then there's going to be legal battles, and that's going to create more uncertainty. And then I see another group of people saying, hey, if this does happen and they do go the route, TiVo, where money has to go back to these companies and back to these countries, then they're going to say, okay, well, now all of a sudden they have all. All this extra cash that they didn't have before, and that's good for these companies. I mean, their next earnings call is going to be awesome. And there's a lot of crypto companies in that same boat as well. And so I've seen people started to. Starting to take both sides of the argument, and I think crypto is right in there with it. I think that you could look at it from either lens. My thing is, you know, we just need a clearer picture. I think it's too. We're too far out to speculate, you know, what is going to be the good and the bad. I think we'll have to wait and see, which I know isn't really what people want to hear, but there's just too many uncertains. Uncertainties. Right. The uncertainty is, is, okay, well, if it gets shot down, the whole tariff argument gets shot down in court, we need to know what the repercussions are. Right, Right. And I guess nothing changes, but if it gets reversed, we need to know what the next steps are. After the reversal, and we just don't know that yet. That's what the uncertainty is. So I think we just have to wait and see. I know that's not what people want to hear, but it's the.
- [57:17]
B
Truth. Yeah. And we're going to cover it for everybody together. So an awesome episode. It was great to have you back today, Brendan. I know we'll be doing a lot more with you this month. We have some awesome ones scheduled. A lot more technical analysis again. If you're interested in kind of learning more about the TA and joining Brennan for his live sessions, I did put the link below. Nothing even to buy today. Just check out the link. Enter your email to get Brendan's trade updates and alerts, and then you'll be kind of in the know for when spots open up for his course again. Give this video a thumbs up, guys. The chat was so active today. Thank you. No, go.
- [57:52]
C
Ahead. Electric. I was saying it was.
- [57:54]
B
Electric. Yeah. McNuts in here. He's. He's already on Polymarket. Buying the dip there. The Blazing Bandit here. Zen was here. Grant was here. Here. Let's see who else Golf. Michael, the Blazing Bandit. Catherine, thank you for coming. Who's that? Milta? I don't know if I'm saying that right. Militia something. Thank you, man. That was awesome. Great live crypto and coffee this Tuesday morning. Thanks to everybody who's listening. We're gonna be back later in the week. I'll put it once we figure out the time. I'll put it in the community post. But that's all for now. So I hope everybody has a great rest of your day. And thanks for joining.
- [58:31]
C
Us.
- [58:31]
B
Bye. Bye.