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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Technical Analysis ont he Bitcoin Dip and JP Morgan Launches Stablecoin
00:41:57
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome back, everyone. Good to have all of you here with us. And welcome Back to the Crypto101 rundown presented by Gemini, our bridge to the future of money. And it's good to be back here with all of you. Once again. Took a little bit of a break. We've been busy over here, a lot going on, interviewing leaders from the industry, talking to people from all over the space, trying to get the best understanding of what's happening in the crypto world so that we can package it all together and bring it to you completely for free on these podcasts and on these rundown episodes between me and Bryce and Brian and TiVo and the whole team over here. And so we're trying to cover on as many fronts as we can, but, man, we're stoked to be able to be back here with all of you. It is an electric time in the crypto market as we are seeing TiVo. I mean, a ton of downwards volatility. There's no other way to put it. Things are volatile. We broke 100k, altcoins are hurting, but there's still a lot going on. We're going to cover all of it. The good, the bad, the ugly, everything in between.
- [01:10]
B
Yeah.
- [01:11]
A
How are you doing, my friend?
- [01:12]
B
I'm doing good, I'm doing good. It's good to be back with you. We've had a couple episodes with Brian which have been fun, but we need your technical analysis and that's what this episode is going to be about. We're going to do a big segment on TA with you, which is the perfect time to do it because I think you kind of, you always lead us the way with your guidance in that facet. But like you're kind of telling us, last time you were with us was the, you know, the 100k barrier and you kind of showed us what could happen either way. Right. It's either a bounce, the upside, or if it does break a certain level, you're going to see it kind of dip down to that 92, 94 level which we actually saw this morning. So it'll be good to get the charts open and check that out. But also I think generally what we're seeing is, you know, there's sometimes there's a specific catalyst for crypto for bitcoin specifically. But a lot of our shows recently, and I think for good measure have been macro based, just because the whole environment seems to have been a little risk off over the last couple weeks and that obviously is going to affect bitcoin and Crypto specifically. So, you know, if you've been staying with us and staying tuned, it hasn't been as fun as those all time high episodes are, obviously. But again, when. And I'll bring it up now, like when, when the Fear and Greed index, you know, is at these levels traditionally it's, it's good time to get in and, you know, get in and buy Bitcoin. And you know, during these volatile times, we have to say it, you know, we're not financial advisors. This is not personal financial advice. But historically, on this chart, you know, when this thing's dipping down into the 20s, right. You correlate with price. It's, you know, it's, it's a good time to start. At least DCA traditionally when it's down.
- [02:42]
A
At these levels and we sold at a 15 yesterday, so mind you, that's the lowest that we've. Or. Sorry, not on this one. It was on the other Fear and Greed index, I think it was from Alternative. Okay. Different website, different provider, but they go back and they actually show you a longer history of the Fear and Greed index. And on that one we hit as low as a 15 and you can go back and you can see all the different points that we hit that and we almost never do. The only times we really get around like a 10 to 15 area. Yeah. From Alternative me, if you zoom out on the max version of that church, when you scroll down, we're still at a 16. And you can see that we only get that low when we are getting really close to a market bottom. Now when we go and we hit the low, it doesn't always. And I think we can still see your, the YouTube screen here. TiVo.
- [03:37]
B
Oh, sorry. Also for people out there, we're doing zoom. We had technical issues with our normal provider, so there might be a couple snafus like that on my end that this isn't the normal software. We produce the show, but we're here for you guys to try our best.
- [03:53]
A
Yeah, you know, great call, man. Exactly. And it was one of those things where there's just so much going on in the market. We're like, all right, well, we're having issues. We could not do it. But there's just so much going on. We're like, we got to do an episode even if it's not, you know, with our home software and all this stuff. Like just something needs to go out. We want to keep all of you in the loop. But I mean, as you have on the screen here, man, I mean, you go back and you look at the other times that we've been at 15 or below or 15 or lower and kind of below that, it's historically near a market bottom. So it's not always saying, hey, the market bottoms when we hit this low, but it tends to indicate that a bottom is getting near. For instance, if you go in and you zoom in, click the one year view of that instead of the max. Click on the one year view and look at that low point that we had around March. Right? We went as low as a 10. And so, or what was that? End of February, start of March it was saying, hey, we are at max fear down there now. Was the start of March the absolute low for bitcoin? It wasn't right. We go back and we look and bitcoin bottomed out. Not in March, but it actually bottomed out in April. However, on February 20, Bitcoin was trading at 77,78,000. The actual low was 4,75,000. So was it the exact low? No, but A, it was close in terms of time and B, it was closer, somewhat close in terms of price as well. So it was about a month later. Month, month and a half later and a couple thousand dollars lower. But still, if you go back to the max chart, you can kind of look back and say historically when the fear and greed index is this low, it's generally when you zoom out to the future, it has historically been a really good time to buy. And I would argue that we're kind of at that same point again where you're looking at this saying, hey, you know, a year from now or maybe a couple of years from now. Tom, do we think that this dip buy will have been a good one? I would argue yes. I think time will be the ultimate tell. But as we'll see here, I mean, the fundamentals are still chugging.
- [06:06]
B
Yeah. And then let me, I think just one final point on the one year here is like again, back in February, we all remember that was the tariff, you know, rollover for the entire market. You know, the s P, the NASDAQ, everything was down, you know, 15, 20% in a couple, you know, days time. It was, it was crazy. The volatility was wild. And, and we came on this show and I thought we, you know, I know on the show we tried to lead through it. And I know, you know, off air, Brendan, me and you really, really stepped in in different, different buys in different ways. But it was like the, the, the catalyst was the tariffs. And at that time, you know, experts from people that agreed with them, said this could work. And then the people that disagreed with them were saying that this is going to spiral the US Economy into a huge recession. The, you know, the, the, the free economy, the open economy that we've known forever is over. Globalization's dying, you know, it's over. And that's why the stock market, you know, crashed. Like that was from that narrative. And so now you're seeing here on the fear and greed index. So if you talk specifically with bitcoin, even back then we were like, hey, we're not that worried about this long term for this asset, but you know, we're right here at 16 compared to 10. So it's like, is the fear, is the, is the sentiment at the moment? As crazy as it was back then, I'd be, I, I don't, I don't feel that way. Which, which kind of leads me to believe two things, right? Which leads me to believe two things. There could still be a wild flush to come. So you're still kind of teetering on that edge. We're going to pull up the charts in a second, but you could still, like, I don't feel like there's mass panic yet, but psychologically being, you know, breaking that 100k and flushing down to like 94, which we're going to see in a second, is, is a huge psychological thing. But I, I don't, I don't think long term for Bitcoin, like, I, it's not bothering me in any way. There's no bitcoin specific news that's this negative. And then again, we said on the show a ton of times, you know, a 20 plus correction is, is very normal in, in a bitcoin bull market. So let's pull up the charts, Brendan, let's start diving through. And then again on the back end of the show, we have a ton of other stuff to cover, you know, around just the news and sentiment and all that stuff. All right, Crypt Nation fam. Let's pause for one second and talk about an important issue going on right now, and that's sim swap attacks. Sim swap attacks are becoming a serious threat, especially in crypto. If someone gets control of your phone number, they can access your bank accounts, your exchanges, emails, and even your private messages. That's why the Crypto 101 podcast has partnered with Afani. It's America's most secure mobile service, offering a guaranteed protection against sim swaps with added privacy. Since launching, not one single Affani user has ever been sim swapped. And for some reason if it ever does happen, you're backed by up to $5 million in insurance against financial losses. This is literally why we chose to partner with them. It is. Our favorite thing about Afani is the insurance policy of up to $5 million if it does happen to you. Afani runs on either AT&T or the Verizon network and you get to choose which one. There are no contracts and it is super easy and seamless to sign up. You also get a 60 day money back guarantee so there's zero risk in trying it out right now for our listeners. You get $99 off when you sign up at a funny.com crypto one on one. That's a funny.com/crypto101 or check the show notes below for a link. These days your phone number is probably more valuable than your Social Security number, so make sure it's protected with Afani.
- [09:29]
C
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- [13:07]
A
Yeah, absolutely man. Yeah. I mean let's take a look at Bitcoin here and what we have going in it I mean, you look at bitcoin and I mean, yeah, it is, it sucks. That's a little bit scary, Gary, right? We're seeing some downwards price action, but I think we've shown this on the show before. But if you go back and you look at when bitcoin has broken its 200 day moving average and what's happened afterwards, like we've seen this several times on the daily chart, right? We ended 2022 below the 200 day moving average and then we ripped up to the upside, chopped around for a bit, broke the 200 day moving average, and then what happened afterward? Well, we recovered to new highs, then we chopped around for a bit, broke the 200 day moving average, and then we recovered to new highs, and then we chopped around for a bit, broke the 200 day moving average, and then broke out to new highs. And here we are again, like kind of doing that same story, right, where it's like, hey, we're coming around after chopping around for a bit, breaking under that 200 day moving average, getting back down here on the fear and greed index and we're kind of at the same spot. Like, this is nothing that we haven't seen before. This is nothing that is just like completely out of left field, unpredictable. Now I think a lot of people expected us to continue the second half the year nearly as strong as we did the first half the year, right? You kind of look at this and say, yeah, we chopped around, we had the tariff crash, but this recovery right here was great. And I think people expected us to continue this kind of movement throughout the second half of the year and we didn't do that. And I think people are let down a little bit by it. And so when we started to reverse a little bit over in here, I mean, I think in the, the long term of the picture, I'm not really too concerned about it, man, but I think if you're like short to midterm, there is some cause for concern. I mean, we had two failed breakouts of the highs, right, right in here. And after, you know, failed breakout one and failed breakout two, we broke our prior all time high trend line, right? We kind of came in here, used it as support, broke this, broke all the major moving averages and we broke below these two levels, came up, rejected them, and then saw continuation to the downside. So I would call this the classic kind of break, hook and go, except to the downside. And now we're just seeing kind of continuation even further over here. So not a great look from a Technical structure, you got to keep it real and say, hey, we're breaking the 200 day moving average, we're breaking support, we're breaking and testing prior support levels as resistance. And some of these things just again are unbiasedly not a good thing to see. So what that could mean is, hey, maybe we do see a little bit lower prices. Like that's something that's possible. I think we even showed that when we showed the fear and greed index. It's like, hey, lower prices are a possibility here. And so I think just being like aware of that and understanding that is really, really important. And you know, what we're typically kind of continuing to see is that altcoins are getting hit hard on these moves down. Not as hard as they probably could be at, you know, 2 to 3x the volatility. But yeah, you know, bitcoin dominance is, has been an interesting thing. Ironically, today bitcoin's really the thing getting hurt I think largely due to outflows. And so bitcoin dominance is falling and altcoins are actually holding together. Okay. Depending on the project. I mean some are down big, some aren't. You have like Clearpool and Ave, which are down 10, Aerodrome down 10. But then a lot of the other ones are break even, down maybe 2 to 3%. You have syrup, which is green, 6 and a half percent. So yeah, I mean, interesting stuff. We're starting to get a little bit of different price action where altcoins aren't tanking off of bitcoin breaking support. And I've certainly been following that. So I like the independency that we're seeing from altcoins here. TiVo. And to kind of put it in a much more condensed format, you know, the technicals are still looking a little bit rough, so I want to be somewhat cautious, but I am looking for some long term accumulation in here because you know, as we do dip down to these kind of levels historically they have been really good buying opportunities. And we all know I'm here for the long term.
- [17:21]
B
Yeah. And I think your altcoin point is well noted because at the beginning it was these altcoins just getting completely flushed the last couple weeks. Right. Just absolutely leading us the way down. Bitcoin dominance, staying strong. Even though bitcoin was bleeding out, the alts were just flying down. So it's, you know, is the, is all coins gonna find a bottom and kind of similar to the, the flash crash that we covered a couple weeks ago with the China tariffs or not China tariffs But there was the, yeah, it was like that flash crash with the highest liquidity ever being flushed out of the market.
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A
It was the Binance crash.
- [17:53]
B
The Binance crash. Sorry about that. That was shocking to see that. But it was almost like the full leverage for altcoins completely got flushed out of that. So it might make sense where Bitcoin has obviously a much bigger market cap by a ton and has institutional people at bay. But some of these old coins got kind of cleared out already which, you know, again depending on, you know, your own research and what you like for long term buy and holds that's, you know, you could be in that, that area of accumulation. But we've got a meme to end the show on all coins and it's just, it's definitely hasn't been the funnest of times. But let's pull up, let's show we're gonna talk about Ethereum. Let's pull up Ethereum. Brendan. I know we're gonna, we got Pam in the chat asking about Ethereum. We got some comments on it. But let's check the, check the charts.
- [18:42]
A
Yeah, I mean here's what we have over here for E. Let's put this on the chart. It's a similar story, right? You broke down through your prior support level, came down, tested it as resistance and you're seeing downwards continuation. We're back below that 200 day moving average, which is not a great thing. You have some prior consolidation zones a little bit lower around 27 to 2800. So if we were going to see a deeper spill, I would imagine that that's where we go to. So we're trying to hang on to this low right here. If we do spill over, I would imagine we probably go closer to 27 and 2800. That's what I'd be looking for next. But yeah, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum look somewhat similar here. Since that they're selling off, they are breaking through some key support levels. They look a little bit weaker. And with both of these again I'm, I'm okay adding in some long term bags but I think on the short to midterm side I'm trying to be a little bit more cautious. So I'm not trying to do anything too aggressive, not trying to get like levered up here, not trying to make some quick little long day trades or weekly trades. I'm just trying to get a better big term picture before I go back to being more biased like that.
- [19:58]
B
Yeah, no, it's definitely, it's Definitely a time to, I don't know. I don't know if I think cautious. Right word. But like stay educated. That's what we, that's what we say. Right. It's, you know, the part of being a part of this community and coming and listening to these episodes every week is like, it's not always fun and games and, and face ripping rallies. You know, this is the market. This is, you know, what makes the market. It's ups and downs. If it was up all the time, you know, everybody would be a billionaire like Elon Musk. Right. It's. Or be the Warren Buffets of the world. It's, it's not, it's not as easy as you think. But the power of a community and the power of education kind of helps you power through any. Let's, let's end with this on the technicals. Brendan, any, any indicators you like during a time of volatility like this that you like watching to kind of, you know, give you that bigger picture view of where this is going?
- [20:48]
A
Absolutely. I'd say my, my probably favorite one that I could use here would be the relative strength. Right. Stands for. Or it's rsi, which stands for relative strangle events. I really like to use this tool and specifically at a time like this, what I'm looking for is a higher swing low, preferably in the oversold territory. So if we get kind of down here below a 30, we see any kind of higher low, like this is a higher low and you saw it was bullish divergence. Here's a lower high and it's bearish divergence. I'm looking for some sort of higher low happening over here and that would be my signal to maybe look for some logs.
- [21:34]
B
I love it. And then again, guys, if you're interested in this stuff with Brendan, he does do it twice a week, live for an hour and he has a six week micro bull run course. And if you're interested definitely in the volatility, it's a great time, like I said, to get educated, have a community. Check the link below. He's actually has the cohort open right now, so the class starts next week. So if there's anybody interested and wants to do this technical analysis and do more of a deep dive into it as we kind of approach key levels of support, some might say there's not a better time to actually learn this stuff and get into it, you know, when especially number one, educating yourself but being prepared for the opportunities that might be arising. Yeah, exactly. So if you're Interested? Brendan's doing this six week program again. You get access to him live twice a week for an hour to do, you know, questions and trading on the charts and there's a full six week course for it. So check out the link below if you're interested. But as we move on, I think again, we try our best. We're like, as fair as we can be, right, Brendan? Like, hey, if there's bearish news, we're going to bring it to you. The only bearish news we really can bring to you is the price action recently because we look on the timeline and everywhere you see or look, it's just, it's pot, it's literal, it's literal positivity. And the latest one is, is JP Morgan launching their JPM coin. So it's like we, we played the clip. We've been, we've been on top of this for sure for the most part. Right? And you know, Jamie Dimon and his clips and all that stuff is, is well documented, especially on this show. But the, with the JPM coin, we played the clip, I think it was two weeks ago. Jamie came out and was just like, he was at that forum on stage and he was talking all bullish about bitcoin and I thought that was really funny. But he had to do it because JPM Coin was getting launched.
- [23:25]
A
He had to. And he capitulated because he, for the longest time he was like, not a fan of crypto, not a fan of bitcoin, not a fan of any of this stuff. And then obviously he had to capitulate because, yeah, his whole company's going in a different direction and he's CEO. So.
- [23:43]
B
Yeah, I mean, I think again, it's one of the biggest, the biggest haters.
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A
It's on base.
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B
It's on base. And it's on base. Of course it's on base. Why wouldn't it be? You know, I just, I think, I think it's a telling again, it's. We try to bring as much as we can evenly and all I see on the timeline is like just the bulls on parade. Right. So I don't know any, any other thoughts on the JPM coin before we move on?
- [24:11]
A
No, I mean, I think again, we've said this a lot, but I think we're going to continue to see this become the new norm and we're going to see more and more of this and it's going to be a normal part of our society and the next generation. This is just going to be like having a bank account or having mobile banking to them. So, yeah.
- [24:30]
B
And then again, our resident bull, Tom Lee, man, this thing's giving me really, I don't know if this video is going to play or not because I'm just having technical troubles today. Can you hear this, Brendan, on bitcoin.
- [24:44]
A
By the end of the year? Yep.
- [24:46]
B
All right, cool. So I think it's just, it kind of plays into. No, no, I just stopped it just to tee it up. So Tom Lee, we know he's bullish on Ethereum, that's what this is. But I think it plays into the fact that JP Morgan's launching the stablecoin play. There seems to be this shift in narrative on Wall street that, you know, bitcoin still has its basis and still has long term value, but there's a lot of big names out there kind of rolling over a little bit on, you know, just bitcoin. They're kind of, you know, the stablecoin play is something that Wall street seems to be focused on and that rolls into exactly what Jamie diamond said. And so if it's the stablecoin play, how can you, you know, get exposure to it? And I think then the debate is kind of, at least for the two big ones, it's Solana and Ethereum. So let's hear Tom Lee's take on this. And then we have some Solana news as well to jump into.
- [25:34]
A
We get on, on bitcoin by the end of the year.
- [25:37]
E
Well, I think people have dampened their expectations for bitcoin because, partly because bitcoin's been treading water and there have been a lot of OGs, original Bitcoiners that are selling above a hundred thousand, but it is still an under allocated asset class. So I think bitcoin actually potentially can get to the high 100 thousands, you know, maybe even 200,000 by the end of the year. I think it's a big ask. But to me, what's more obvious is Ethereum can have a huge movement to your end because even Cathie Wood wrote about it. She thinks stable coins have been cannibalizing demand for Bitcoin and, and gold. And tokenized gold is cannibalizing demand for Bitcoin. But stable coins and tokenized gold run on smart contract blockchains like Ethereum and Wall street is building and Larry Fink wants to tokenize everything on Wall street on the blockchain. That means Ethereum is where people are starting to raise their growth expectations. And if you're raising your growth expectations, then your, your discount to the future is going up. So I think that there's a bigger move in Ethereum and Mark Newton, our head of technical strategy, thinks we can be like 9 to 12,000 by January. I think that's about right. I think Ethereum just 3600 more than doubles between now and year end or between now and January.
- [26:48]
B
I mean you gotta appreciate the conviction I, I, as a human being who thinks their own thoughts. Like I have a hard time seeing this price target by January. But you know, you gotta appreciate number one, the conviction. If he's right, what an amazing parade Tom can have down Wall Street. But at the same time it is interesting and, and I think that credits us and how we do this and try to, you know, educate. But we're also kind of virtual journalists in the podcast space. It's like we've been pumping this narrative on Tom Lee now since he started, you know, BM&R. We're believers in him, but like I appreciate him still going out and saying it, but also like what happens in January when this does, if this doesn't happen? Like I am interested into kind of seeing the pivot of, you know, you know, price targets don't always come true, but if it's, if it's totally off, it'll be interesting to see how, how he pivots.
- [27:44]
A
Yeah, I mean, obviously we're huge fans of Ton. We kind of respect for them, we always talk about them and show us clips and everything on the show. But I would agree with you, I have a hard time seeing us get over 10k by the end of this year. It's been a rough end and that'd be a really big move now to see us go from, I mean, you know, what, what are we trading at right now? 3,000, 3,200 back up to new all time highs and then doubling it after that. I think it's a big ask. I certainly hope that I'm wrong. I hope that he's right because we both have exposure to Ethereum, Ethereum, as I'm sure a lot of you do. So I'd love to be proven wrong here, but I would agree. I think that it is a big expectation to hit those kind of numbers, but I think it's, it's even lofty to say that we could hit new all time highs by the end of this year. Now I think that that's still, people are probably still going to look at you and say really, like all time highs after what we just did and the way that we're behaving I think even that now is kind of being viewed as a lofty prediction. So we'll see.
- [28:50]
B
Deb, Deb in the chat made a good point and said Tom's Lee, Tom Lee's hair didn't look that slick. And Brian, I were talking about that how like when Tom Lee has really high conviction on something, his hair is always really well maintained. And, and so we were talking about how a couple weeks ago or last week when there was a big dip, Tom was on and saying Ethereum this, Ethereum that. And I saw his hair was like perfect. So I was like, oh, Tom, Tom, Bitmine's buying right now. Bit mine's buying. And then it came out, obviously bit mine had a big buy. But yes, that clip was not as slick with the hair. So we'll keep track on that. The Tom Lee Hair Tracker here at the Crypto 101 podcast. We appreciate everybody tuning in. Again, if you're new here, give us a like, please subscribe. You'll see our logo in the bottom right. We do this stuff multiple times a week. You know, when we're celebrating all time highs, it's definitely a lot more fun. But the key to good trading and good long term investing is a fun community to stay educated. And that's what we do here at the crypto101 podcast. So if you're new, hopefully you'll join along and we appreciate everybody who also returns all the time. But let's move on to the other side of this trade. And I'm excited because Solana again, I always say the beginning of the year, we had the meme coin run in January, you know, the end of last year into this year and Solana was the bell of the ball making all time highs. And then, you know, Solana rolled over a little bit and then Ethereum took the, you know, Ethereum was dead, dead as a dog. And then Ethereum took the baton. And so, you know, as the Ethereum is, you know, with bit mine, Tom Lee is the, is the next big thing. And Solana kind of took a back seat. But now we have those Solana ETFs that are live with some staking and we're having our friends from Bitwise on on the podcast in a couple weeks here, which will be great to hear from them. So you brought us some Solana ETF statistics. So I'm going to pull those up, Brandon and have them walk us through us because I think the ETFs had a good start at least.
- [30:45]
A
Yeah, they did. So Be Soul was Beso and some of these other ones are all breaking records here. And the first article or. Yeah, actually, if you just scroll down here on this, on the block, we can actually just go. It's gonna be one more slide down, I believe. Maybe one more. Let's go one more. Yeah. So Solana Spot ETF flows right there. And so over the last several weeks, this has been really, really well in high and it's been doing phenomenally. And yeah, it's kind of tapered off here and you do see some stuff happening, but still like remaining positive in terms of inflows. Yes, the inflows have tapered off, but people are still buying into this. And it has not really spent almost any time in the negative. As you can see the. To the chart right to the right of this. So when it launched, it was actually shattering records. And we have a whole article on this from R3 on X inside of our sheet as well. And it says, the bitwise Solana staking ETF Diesel smashed records this week, hitting 57.6 million in trading volume on day one, outperforming all 850 US ETF launches in 2025. So keep this in mind. This thing smashed the ETF records for 2025, moved up, saw a lot of positivity. I mean, yeah, I mean, seeing that kind of trading volume. And then guess what happened, Thibault. Guess who came in. XRP got an ETF approval and they beat Solana in terms of inflows. Let's take a look at it. They barely, barely did it. XRPC from Canary had the largest day one trading volume, actually. What's the time stamp on this?
- [32:45]
E
Is this.
- [32:46]
A
I believe this happened after. I'm 90. Sure.
- [32:49]
B
Yesterday. It's 4 o'. Clock.
- [32:51]
A
Yeah. Yeah. So this one beat it. XRPC from Canary Funds had the largest day one trading volume for an ETF launch in 2025. And it squeaks by B soul, which was at 57 million. And the crazy thing is they noted this even as well. They said, hey, this happened on a down day, which was pretty impressive. So love it, hate it. If you're part of the XRP army, you got to be eating this up. You're looking at it and saying XRP outperformed Solana on. It outperformed everything. It outperformed Solana's ETF, but it also outperformed every other ETF launch in 2025. And it did it on a very red day. So power to the XRP army here. You gotta like what you're seeing and ironically or interestingly enough, it didn't see a lot of price appreciation from this. But it's still a good thing to see, fundamentally speaking, so crazy news happening. I mean, we're still seeing really, really good flows, especially as these altcoin ones are coming out. The government's on freezing. We're seeing these things get approved.
- [34:04]
B
Yeah, a little bit of, you know, macro risk off from, you know, the data coming in from the government shutdown and then unknowing, you know, not knowing what the Fed is going to do or say. And we kind of had a, you know, the December Fed meeting threw everybody off last year too. So maybe some people are looking in the rearview mirror from last year and a little worried what they're gonna see. But yeah, this is, this is bullish. And again, another, another podcast guest coming on for the the summit, the hedge fund summit. We have Canary Capital CEO coming back on. He's doing interview with Brian. So tons of good content coming for crypto 101 to stay educated. Where do we go from here? Because again, usually I have my sheet, but I can't pull it up with the thing. I'm just going to go to the next link. Canary ETF and then more stats max on X. Is that something.
- [34:55]
A
We can skip that one. We covered most of it already. Unless there's anything on there that you wanted to talk about.
- [35:00]
B
Nope, just I guess you're tracking of ETFs. You know, the altcoins were taking some money in, but Bitcoin ETFs were taking some money out.
- [35:09]
A
Yeah, exactly. Like this was interesting. This I guess wasn't a great thing for Bitcoin, but Bitcoin saw its second largest day of outflows. Or the, rather the Bitcoin ETF sold their second largest day of outflows just the other day. So it's interesting, the top comment right there is why the panic? And it's like a good point. Like you hear and see everything that's going on and you're like, why are we panicking at this level? Why is the Fear and Greed Index the same levels that it was at during the tariff crash and Covid and all these other crazy events. Why are we at those levels? Why the panic? Why are we seeing the second largest day of ETF outflows? Does it make sense? Is it rational? Not really. It really isn't. It's not that deep, but it's an interesting data point. And again, our job is to make you all aware. We want to go through all the data, all the noise, all the everything and bring it to you and just present it to you so that you all know what's happening. But yeah, second largest day of outflows for the Bitcoin ETFs. And you know, that's a little bit more of a scary thing to see. But you know how the saying goes, TiVo, buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy.
- [36:21]
B
Yeah. And I think that, dare I say I'm gonna bring this randomly up. It's not on the sheet, but I've been tracking on the, the regular stock market, the biotech. So biotech and health was a huge laggard this year, just absolutely down. And the narrative was, you know, the government's coming for the subsidies and Maha is on the charge with, you know, RFK getting elected and it's over for Pfizer, it's over for biotech. Again, you throw up the year to date. You could see this, right? This is, you know, this is the beginning of the year. Trump Admin comes in, boom. This was, that was the narrative. And then slowly but surely, and this is an ETF of biotech, but slowly but surely now it's up on the year 24% and, and 10% of that is within, within the last month. And so I'd love to hear your thoughts on it. The only thing that I'm thinking of is like we've had so many huge winners and bitcoin was a huge winner this year, obviously. Hood and Coinbase and this astronomical, you know, the rising of some, some of these stocks, especially in tech specific. And so now at the end of the year, we've kind of been talking about this on the show with Chase Perfor Performance. So if you're an underperforming person, you're going to Chase for performance, you're window dressing. So yes, you might go buy some stocks that have had big runs. But, but what's going to happen is from here on out, whatever's running now is going to get the action and it's going to run faster because there's probably a little bit more of a delta for some performance to your end. And we shared the stat last time on the show. Brandon, you weren't here, but there was something like the underperformance for the average fund manager is, is very high this year. A lot of people are underperforming. So my thought, and again, this is something that I don't do this professionally, just an opinion might be the end of the year and we're kind of Seeing it in bitcoin, the end of the year could get a little sloppy in the sense that there's going to be a lot of trading going on. Again, these fund managers are managed in one month, three month, six month and one year. So you know, they're trying to window dress and, and compete against each other for the performance. Whereas, you know, us as retail guys, we kind of have a long term view. And I think it's important not to kind of get caught up in the chop that they can cause sometimes being the big dogs. But didn't know if you had any thoughts on that.
- [38:34]
A
Yeah, no, that seems to be kind of the inside opinion right now is that fund managers have been underperforming and especially against just like the indices. And the big reason for that this year specifically is because when the tariff crash happened, you saw that the institutional side was very negative, very short. They were not willing to believe that the market had bottomed and the retail side were the ones buying it up and they were the ones happy to buy the dip and get long, whereas institutions weren't. And so it was primarily retail who was benefiting from the dip, while institutions were getting screwed, having sold their positions, staying short, things like that. And now the idea is in order to bring the average down, you know, maybe we see the performance of everything fall into year end, so that way it doesn't look as bad. Right. Think about if the markets continue going up and they still have all this cash and shorts and stuff on, it's going to say, hey, the gap in between their performance and what the indices were doing is bigger. But if the indices come down and all these risk assets with crypto included kind of come down here, well then it narrows the gap because, you know, they might be gaining as the markets are coming down and it narrows that gap and makes their performance look a little bit better. So I have seen that floating around as a, as a theory, and I wouldn't be too surprised by it. I mean, you look at the performance of what we've seen here, obviously bitcoin in recent months, a little bit more concerning. But I know that if you look at this through like a traditional financial lens, then it's a little bit different because Nasdaq, for example, if you look at it off the tariff lows, I mean, it rallied 61% in around what, six months? I mean, when's the last time NASDAQ rallied 61 in six months? It's, it's crazy. Especially when you look at the average return rate closer to 10% so it was averaging its annual return rate almost every single month for six months straight. And I wouldn't be surprised if. If we kind of see this idea that you brought up TiVo, and yeah, it plays out.
- [40:45]
B
Sounds good, I agree. And I think a cool thing to do is look at this thing by bitwise too. Just one more thing on Bitcoin is like the bitcoin ownership type. So for gold, the government owns 17% of Bitcoin. For Bitcoin, it's only 1.5%, mostly owned by individuals. And again, you kind of see this chart. I think we talk all the time about, hey, microstrategy and then Meta Planet and Vivex companies buying bitcoin. All these companies are buying bitcoin. So that's growing, you know, and then there's funds that are buying if that's growing. But it's mainly held by individuals. And we've kind of always said that linchpin could be the government stepping in and announcing some buying. And that could be kind of in a similar way for what Tom was saying, like, how could Ethereum rocket by the end of the year? My thought might be not the government necessarily coming in and buying it, but if JP Morgan or one of these big banks that are rolling out these stable coins on Ethereum, if they announce that they're buying a big piece of Ethereum or ton of ton of Ethereum, that. That could like, really see. I know it's a huge market cap. You could see one of those, like 10, 20% days, and then that. That creates that FOMO bubble. So I thought this was a great chart by bitwise, that was, you know, a great visual. So that, that made me. That made me. Wanted to bring it up for everybody.
- [42:00]
A
Yeah, no, exactly, man.
- [42:02]
B
And then we're wrapping up has been a. No, go ahead.
- [42:06]
A
Yeah, no, I was gonna say, you know what else I. I hear floating around? TiVo? Stimmies.
- [42:12]
B
Stimmies. Stimmy checks have been the thought of the week. Right. So originally it was said on a tweet by Trump, everybody thought everybody was getting their $2,000 again. Then Scott. Scott Bessant walked it back. We talked about that on the show. And the kind of was like, hey, it could be tax breaks this or that. But I did see this quote from Scott as well. The 2000 tariff check would be for those making less than a hundred thousand. So I think if we're breaking it down, here's what happened. Trump tweets it out, Scott Besson goes on TV and kind of retracts it a little bit. And then Scott and Donald are in the office and, and Donald's like, we got to give him a check though. I said like I want to give somebody a check. So may maybe, you know, again, there's no specifics out on any of this yet, but I thought it was interesting because that's a huge chunk of Americans and those are the people again in that we talk about the K shape economy of what this has kind of become where the top, you know, the top dogs and the richest become richer and the, the bottom of the K is struggling. You know, there's definitely a lot of people struggling out there with housing and inflation, all that stuff. So you know, that could, that could be a help and it would be interesting if it was a real check. So something, something to keep, to keep on the lookout. And then I thought this was good for everybody again on the Scott Besson train here to end the show the or I think I gotta unshare and then reshare with the sound here. So I think this is important. This is not crypto related but just as in the finance space of finance, business news, education. We've talked about it on the show one time but it was good fun to bring up. You know, if you have a newborn kid within the last year or about to have a newborn kid, I think it's very important to, to educate yourself or if you know somebody who's having a child and might not be financially aware as much as you are, important to share them this video and this news of the thousand dollar account for all newborn Americans. So let's, let's hear this because I thought this was awesome.
- [44:00]
F
And then the other thing you're going to see on the, in the middle of the year are these Trump accounts. Every child born retroactively to January 1st for the next three years is going to get $1,000 account that's going to be invested in the US stock market. So that's another thousand dollars for working families.
- [44:23]
A
So yes.
- [44:24]
F
And then the other thing you're going to.
- [44:26]
B
So I just put that on the sheet number one, because I think it's like I said, this is awesome on the tweet and I think it's important for people to kind of know that and understand that and help people that might be not as financially, you know, literate as you. Especially if you're listening to the show, you're, you're probably in the top 5 to 1% of people that are financially literate. So it could be fun. But let's end On a fun note, Brendan, the one thing at the end of this show we know, you know, and the price action isn't as fun, people aren't having as fun and trading. But like there's a hierarchy of needs and it's psychological safety, love, self esteem. And then of course, altcoin season.
- [45:03]
A
Altcoin season. It's what we all need. It's what we desire. Some people want women and boats and houses and to go and explore the average human like us watching. No, no, no, no. We want altcoin season. That's what we live for. And you know, interestingly enough, I mean, as we talked about at the beginning of the episode, bitcoin dominance is dropping. Even while bitcoin's kind of fallen through support. Altcoins are holding up, doing okay. So maybe, maybe, just maybe it's closer than you think. But we're going to definitely make sure that we keep everyone posted. We continue to bring all the news to, to all of you and yeah, we'll keep everyone in the loop as, as the crypto market continues forward. Because guess what? It's not dying. It's not going anywhere. We, we're gonna have ups and downs and listen, we've had far worse than whatever we're experiencing right now. So make sure you all stick around. If you haven't already, hit that like and subscribe button. It's completely for free. It also lets us know that you like these videos and helps push it out to other people who might like them as well. So appreciate all of you watching TiVo. Anything else to say before we wrap up?
- [46:18]
B
No man, the show's growing. We appreciate everybody coming back. There's some bots in the comments there, so ignore those bots that are trying to pitch some pre sale or whatever. Ignore that. But that's just a sign that the show is growing. We appreciate everybody. We hope everybody has an awesome, awesome weekend and we'll be back next week with some more episodes. So have a good weekend and then until next time, everybody, we'll see you later.
- [46:51]
G
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