← CRYPTO 101
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A
A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces that mix well and last. That's where Quince shines. Premium fabrics considered design in everyday essentials that feel effortless to wear and they're dependable as the seasons change. Quince has everyday essentials I love with quality that lasts. Lightweight cashmere sweaters, short sleeve Mongolian cashmere polos. Tees in 100 pima cotton and European jersey linen. These are the versatile pieces that make a wardrobe that actually work season to season. Quince works directly with top factories and cuts out the middleman. So you're not paying for brand markup or fancy retail stores, just paying for that quality clothing. And they only partner with factories that meet the rigorous standards for craftsmanship and ethical production. Guys, you heard me talk about the winter when I was going home, how I use Quince to get an awesome winter. Get up their jackets and sweaters when I went home for the holidays. But I live in Florida so now it's time to start that next evolution of the year for my wardrobe. I'm checking out their shirts, I'm checking out their tees and their website is super fun to navigate with so many options. So you got to go to Quince and check it out. Right now go to quince.com crypto101 for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's a full year to build your wardrobe and love it and you will now available in Canada too. Don't keep settling. For clothes that don't last. Go to Quince. Q U I n c e.com crypto101 for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quint.com crypto101. All right everybody, welcome back to the crypto rundown and happy Friday to everyone. We've got an awesome episode for you guys today. It is bloody in the streets, but that's okay because through all the fog of the markets we will see clearly. Brendan is here. He is opening up the technical analysis. We are diving in deep with him today. We are starting with it right at the top of the show. No need to fret. And we also have honestly the fundamentals. The fundamentals of the crypto market as much as we say it here on this show week in and week out. Zoom out because there's some big news. We got bitcoin backed mortgages. Bitcoin's looking at quantum upgrades, tether signs with a big four accounting firm. That is huge news. Brendan's going to break that down with us and we've got a little fun Quick hitters at the end of the show as always to leave you off Friday with a good note, Brendan. It's Friday. I'm feeling full life. I got to reconnect with a good friend of mine, an old college and high school buddy. We got breakfast this morning. He's one of those people that when you get to finally reconnect with someone you haven't seen in so long you just get shot, injected, full of life. So I'm feeling great, I'm super excited about it. Shout out to friend of the show at Chaz. But my friend Brendan, it's great to be with you. With you, with you here. How are you doing?
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B
I'm doing good Tiva. You know what I'm ready to reconnect with. It's an old friend called all time highs.
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A
I think we could all, I think we all want to reconnect with that friend.
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B
No, but all jokes aside here, you know, we got to make a little bit of light of the situation. We've been through this, we've been through worse. So quick little joke. Hope everyone is having a good day. Happy freakin Friday everyone. And it's good to be here. You know, Markets moving down pretty sharply to the downside here. I know I saw bitcoin making, price is just below 66, 000. Back into the 65, 000 area we have Bitcoin down about 4% on the day. Ethereum down about 3 1/2 percent. Solana down about 4 and a 4ish percent. XRP down about 2 1/2%. So a lot of crypto moving forward to the downside and seeing some new lows, at least local lows while the traditional side is getting hammered as well. Just so everyone knows, you know, I mean it's not just crypto. That's been a big thing that I said, you know. Silver down over 40% from the highs. Gold down around 20% from the highs. NASDAQ here just in the last like two or three days pushing 4ish percent to the downside which is a lot for a large indice. And now you have a lot of these, these big indexes pushing below their 200 day moving averages. So there's blood everywhere. Right? You know we kind of come in on an episode like this, a question we always get, we always get asked is why is crypto down? And it's really everything here, you know, everything's getting a bit of a beating to the downside. But we're going to break it down, we're going to Talk about everything. You know, a big point of this show is to talk about the fundamentals, the technicals, the news, the charts, the good, the bad, the ugly, everything in between. And that's what we're going to do here. So we're not here to just talk about like the falling prices, and we're here to talk about a lot of the stuff that's still happening, but also the opportunity that comes. That comes out of stuff like this while just being transparent that, you know, the market is. Is still falling with it. So good to be here. TiVo excited for today's episode. Where do we begin, my friend?
- [04:56]
A
Yeah, you teed it up perfectly. It's. We. You can only talk about the same reason why the macro's been down, you know, day in and day out. We. We've covered it in plenty of rundowns before, so we don't want to beat, you know, beat a dead horse here. It's just it. There's a fog. There's a fog right now in the world. There's a fog in the markets, and eventually we'll get through it. And this is the time I saw somebody in the chat saying there's a lot of coins on sale. We got a great chat today. So we're not gonna. We're not gonna focus the show much on the macro. We do that from time to time. But we all know what's going on. There's just a ton of ton of fog. Nobody's seeing through it.
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B
But.
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A
But that doesn't mean that we can't stick to the basics. We can't stick to our education, we can't stick to our plans, and we can't stick to our strategies and try and find projects and assets that we think are mispriced. And that's what we're going to do today. Shout out to the chat. It's acting up here. We've got Michael, east coast lobsters here. Beautiful. The one armed bandits here. Michael's here, Cje is here, and the great habish. And I'm sure there's plenty others that haven't told us they're here yet. Get in the chat, let us know where you're watching from. I'm going to hand it off to Brendan. He's going to pull up the charts for you guys. And as we say on this show, when he does the charts, if you're interested in getting involved in Brendan's trading group, where you get six weeks with him, you get to trade with him live two times a week, plus all the education and tutorials on how to master the charts like him. It is that time where the charts. I'm sorry, the charts are coming up. It's that time where the. The cohort is open. So it comes around every. Every couple months. There's always people asking, they want to get involved. It's like, not yet. Not yet. It is open. It is open. There is in the description on YouTube and the podcast, if you're interested, to get involved, there's a link for you to learn more about that. If you want more of the charts with Brendan, check it out. Brendan. Let's do it.
- [06:44]
B
Yeah, we start on Monday, man. Start a new cohort due back due to popular demand. It's. You could say it's the perfect time for it with the way that the market is moving right now. But I mean, you're right, man, It's. It's a lot going on here. And one of the big things that we've been trying to hammer home on is that ever since the all time high over here, it's been all time highs right up in here. Then move down bear flag. Move down bear flag. Move down much larger bear flag. Move down, large bear flag once again. And so when we look at this move, right, if you're just looking here, move down rising channel. Move down rising channel. This looks awfully similar to what we're seeing here. And this is one of the things that we've brought up, not only in the communities, but we've tried to talk it a little bit more as I've been back on the rundowns. And I think it's important for people to pay attention to this, right, because look at how similar these two patterns, you know, look. And when you're looking at any kind of bear flag, there's different kinds of bear flags, but the ones that we see here is move down followed by a rising channel. This is what we call a continuation pattern. Because there's a move down, you get a pattern and then you have continuation in that same direction. So my fear here, you know, it's not guaranteed. We're very catalyst driven, very emotionally driven in the market right now. But my fear here is that we can have this move down consolidation, bear flag, and then a deeper move, which is something I think we have to rule as something that's on the table here. Like, this is something that is very much possible. And so I want to be aware of that. You know, I want to be a little bit conservative here with what I'm doing. I'm not doing Anything too, too crazy. But I am looking at buying the dip because I think there's a huge dip buying opportunity that comes out of something like this. So I'm looking at this and saying, hey, you know, if we don't get any kind of reversal of the catalyst, right? There's four main catalysts going on right now that are affecting all of the markets, including the crypto market. The four main catalysts are the geopolitical fears, AKA war, right? The second one is stemming from that. But the energy kind of crisis, rising energy prices, how that's going to affect businesses, how that's going to then affect the economy and profits and jobs and everything else. Number three is going to be the Federal Reserve. Are they going to cut rates? Are they going to push those rate cuts further away, which people don't want? Are they going to hike? You know, that's come into the conversation. There's going to be a new Federal Reserve chairman soon. There's been beef between the existing chairman and the President. There's all these things going on within the, the Federal Reserve, whole bunch of shenanigans. And so that's number three. And then number four is the fact that all these other things are happening, which has pushed the Clarity act away from maybe some of these deadlines where people thought it was going to get approved. So now the Clarity act, you know, that, that's had its own drama, but now that's probably not priority number one or two, even, or three. Now it's getting pushed down a little bit because there's just other things that are going on that are, know, arguably more important. And so those are the, the primary catalysts here. Until I think you start to see some of those get solved out. It seems like people are trying to sit on the sidelines. They are a little bit fearful. And what that does to risk on assets like bitcoin and crypto and everything else is of course that can cause some selling pressure. So regardless of like whether it's bitcoin or if you look at like the traditional side and you look at tech here, you know this is falling off a cliff. You look at large caps like that, you look at small caps, the same story, you know, really falling here pretty aggressively. And a lot of things are just going beneath those 200 day moving averages. Again, you see it in the S&P 500 as well. So bitcoin accompanied by a few of those, those tradfi plays, but everything seeing some decent volatility to the downside. Now bitcoin here looks like it's breaking through the bottom of this channel, which is not a great sign. You had a failed breakout here for bitcoin, right? We failed to kind of fill in this gap in this zone. We barely hit a higher high, failed breakout, rejection of the top of the bear flag back through the short term moving averages. And now it looks like we're falling through the floor of this bear flag in this falling channel. Now keep in mind, you know, this is what it looked like last time. Once you actually got the follow through, it escalated quite quickly. So my thoughts here is, you know, we could maybe catch on the low 60,000. If we don't hold there, then maybe we likely do go into the 50 thousands. Now that's as far as I would be looking here. I've seen people talk much further than that. I have a hard time believing that. One of the common things I say on these calls is that just as when you're in a bull market, everyone always gives these super outlandish bitcoin upside price predictions. But it's the same thing when you're in a bear market. You get these obscene downside price predictions for bitcoin. So in a bull market you're having people saying, oh, we're going to hit $10 million on Bitcoin. And in a bear market you're having people say, oh, we're going to hit $10,000 again or something crazy. And they're almost always wrong in both directions. And so you have to look at a more conservative upside and downside target for what a lot of people think are going to happen. And that usually ends up being the reality.
- [11:51]
A
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future of service and support, this is your chance to make it legendary, suit up and save big with $500 off using COD power on hdiconference.com. so I would just say, hey, you know, if you are in crypto right here it is a possibility that we see more downside. My personal belief is that there's more upside risk as opposed to downside risk. I think obviously the trend is pointed down right now, but what I mean by that is if you're looking at how far Bitcoin has fallen off the highs, it has fallen about 48%. So do I think that we have another 48% to the downside? I don't, but I certainly think that we have at least 100% or 48% to the upside. Right. So if I thought which way are we going to see a 40% move first? Is it going to be upside or downside? I would lean towards downside. I think that there's more reward as opposed to risk. So even if we do go in the new lows, I would be pretty confident of a buyer. We've shown charts before showing the statistical based on historical analysis the statistical likelihood that bitcoin will recover off those lows and be profitable a year later. And the unique numbers here to watch out for is that when Bitcoin's at a 50% drawdown from all time highs, the odds are that if you're buying at a 50% drawdown or greater, you will have roughly a 93% chance of being profitable from that 50% or greater drawdown mode a year later. If it's at a 60% drawdown, the statistical likelihood that you're profitable a year later is 98%. And if it's at greater than 70%, the historical data would say 100% of the time over the last, I think like 10 to 12 years of data that you are profitable a year later. So again, I would want to be a buyer down here of bitcoin, Me personally, even if it goes lower. That's kind of my thought process is, listen, I'm going to do a little bit of dollar cost averaging. I'm looking really far out. I'm not saying next tomorrow, next week, next month. I'm saying maybe even, you know, not next year, like maybe Even, you know, 2027, 2028, that kind of timeline saying, hey, at least a year, two years plus out. I think that we're in a significantly better spot than we are down here. And the long term has not been shaken. Final thoughts here. You know, as I just cycle through some large caps tivo, everything else is coming down. You know, you have eth coming down a little bit. Failed push higher. Solana pushing down here after a failed push higher to kind of fill in some of those gaps in the charts as well. Well, XRP remains as, as an underperformer here, which is, you know, unfortunate, but it's nothing too crazy. If you look at the history of this chart, this tends to either be 100 or 0. When it runs, it outperforms and when it's not running, it's usually underperforming. So it goes through these cycles where it's, you know, parabolic nothing for a couple years. Parabolic consolidates for a long time. Parabolic. Now it's coming back down off of these. So it makes sense that it would be underperforming at a time like this. It's been in a pretty gnarly falling channel for a long time. I think eventually XRP is gonna have its day back in the sunlight and it's gonna have a really big rally. But until then, it's probably just gonna remain an underperforming asset and you know, it's something to keep an eye out on as the market heats up, but until then, you know, paying a little bit less attention to it. Final ones that we talked about a lot here in recent weeks were hyperliquid. We brought this up a lot. I mean, who knows, we'll probably even bring it back up here today. Hyper liquid, doing pretty well, coming off of, you know, pretty fresh. All time or not all time highs, but recent highs and yearly highs still holding on fairly well, outperforming a lot of the market. You've seen similar kind of outperformance from. From Tau, which is coming back in as everything else is falling. But you've seen a handful of these, you know, even trx, which we don't talk about a ton of pushing back above that 200 day moving average for about a week or two now. So still a lot of cryptos out there that are doing fairly well. You know, you could also look at sky and Morpho, which had been uptrending for a little while here. Similar story with Morpho, which, you know, is coming back down now, but had a pretty nice breakout. But yeah, a lot of cryptos acting up here and overall a lot of activity. TiVo.
- [18:33]
A
Yeah, could you do. I got a. I got a question there, teacher. Could you pull up the vwap for us on bitcoin? I always. That's a, that's a tool that I know Bryce likes, and I always get excited when you guys talk about it because I think it's a cool one. We're in this, like just no man's land. It's a cool one to bring up. And again, a vwap is something you'd learn in the trading course and kind of get familiar with all the tools and widgets that Brendan uses. But break down some vwap for me.
- [18:59]
B
Yeah, you know, it's. It's interesting. I use vwap a lot for my. For day trading. I don't use it or. And then. I'm sorry, I use vwap a lot for day trading on like short term time scales. And then I'll use the anchored vwap a lot for everything else. So I'll tell you what, let's do an anchored vwap.
- [19:18]
A
Yeah, it gives the anchored.
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B
Because I was gonna say I wouldn't really use it for like a daily. I wouldn't. You really use the normal vwap on a daily chart as much. But if we do an anchored vwap here, that's what this orange line is on my bitcoin chart, this is an anchored vwap from the all time highs. And what it does is it kind of acts as a magnet. In fact, we can also do one from the prior lows. And I think that that would be a pretty good add in here. So it's, it's funny that you asked this because I was just asked about this exact thing this morning or yesterday in one of the Q and A videos for one of the trading cohorts. And they were asking like, hey, Brendan, how do you plot and use the anchored vwap? And my response was, you always want to use it off of significant high and lows. So whether that's all time highs, all time lows, cycle highs, cycle lows, or even like swing highs or swing lows, you can plot it off of those. And so if we're plotting it off of the cycle lows back in 2022, we are approaching that level. We've come close to this a couple of times, but we've always held above it. And from the all time high, I think that's where you get a really convincing argument of saying, hey, you know, we have touched this anchored vwap several times and it's always been resistance. So we've kind of moved down, came into it, rejected it, came up into it, rejected it, came up fake out, rejected it, rejected it, rejected it, you know, came back up in here again, rejected it to the downside. And so this anchored vwap off the highs has been a huge resistance area moving forward. It moves a little bit more quickly than the 200 day moving average, typically speaking. And yeah, it's currently sitting right around 85,000, which would be my upside target. I think if we're going anywhere, I think that that area makes the most sense around the mid-80s. And to the downside, you could look at this and it would say, hey, you know, if we're going to go to that anchored vwap off of the cycle lows, that would be a little bit lower here for bitcoin into the 50s, which I've been a big advocate of and saying, hey, it's not guaranteed, but it's a real possibility. It's a door that's very much still open for, for bitcoin to get to. Should we spill over a little bit more? So yeah, I mean, that's my thoughts here. I do like the anchored vwaps a lot and I like the vwap itself a lot. But I would say I use it more for, for like day trading stuff. So if I'm going to trade like a, a five minute chart or a 15 minute chart, you'll see me use it more on there.
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A
No, thanks for bringing it up. I mean, man, when you, when you put those two together like that, I mean we are in quote right smack dab in the middle of that anchored VOP sandwich almost in no man's land, if you will. So it makes sense again with just the macro, man, it just, it makes sense all, all these, you know, any, in any market. And another thing, this is macro related but I was looking at like the vix and the VIX is kind of in no man's land as well. Like sometimes for the traditional markets, the VIX is a measure of volatility. Right. And there's the stats that you just gave. I really enjoyed those stats. You gave of buying Bitcoin at 50% drawdown is 93% profitable year later. That was a great little stat, but I really enjoyed that. And I was, I was looking at some stats from the VIX and it was like, hey, you know, when the VIX hits, I think the levels, it's something in the 30s, it's like if it's a 30, let's just call like a 32 or 35. If you buy the Vix at a 35, you know, a year later there's a, you know, the probability of being profitable in those trades is the market's going to be higher, is a lot higher. And the VIX is just kind of hanging out in no man's land in like the 20s right now. And so you're not getting that like if you go back to liberation day of last year and you could zoom out like you're not getting that huge flush of the market where it's peak fear, right? And it's peak selling and, and that, that, that's the durable bottom for things to go higher. We're kind of in this, okay, we know the war is going on, everybody, but we know it'll end. It can't go on forever. The oil can't go higher because everybody knows there's kind of like a Trump put. But that means that nobody's getting into that max fear. On the macro level, I think crib, there's certain stocks we covered crypto obviously, but like the software, there's so many like projects and stocks down, you know, 30, 40, 50% in software and crypto. So there's certain areas that have gotten absolutely nailed. But we just, that zoom out of the VIX there kind of shows you Just like, okay, maybe we haven't flushed this thing out yet. Thoughts on that, Brendan? I kind of just was thinking that this morning before we hopped on. We didn't put it on the sheet or anything.
- [23:52]
B
It's a real thought. You know, I was going through the same thing this morning. Right. We're getting the breakdown. My thought is that usually you get this like big blow off moment and we just have not quite gotten that yet. At least not in the traditionals in crypto. You could argue, hey, that move down that we we had in was at the start of February might have been it. But I think it's possible that we see a moment like that. You see the Vix go to 40 or above that or 50 and maybe then we get close to a bottom. You know, truthfully, I'm not sure. I think that it would. It seems likely like that we have a little bit more downside.
- [24:40]
A
But you're what? It's the problem. The problem is it's hard. We said at the jump of the show we're not going to talk too much macro. This is the problem as. And it's just frustrating to open up and be completely honest with the listeners. It's like it is such a hard market right now because you're one tweet away. You're literally one tweet away completely off sides and going back. And you have the VIX here looking at April and that absolute Empire State Building candle that was peak fear during the tariff drama and nobody knew what was going on. And if you had the guy, we covered it very well in the show, me and you specifically. We had a couple nice leaps. I remember we saw through it and we're like, this isn't going to last. But we didn't know. And then eventually you just got caught off sides. And it feels, I think the stakes are a lot higher here, obviously when in the fog of war. But it's just you're one tweet away from being completely offsides in whatever market you trade, oil, stocks, crypto, anything, it doesn't matter. You're one tweet away from being offsides. And I think that's why that VIX is just stuck in that no man's land.
- [25:45]
B
You're right. I mean, I remember that I have it up on the chart here was a near 16% move TiVo on NASDAQ. It was a 16% move from bottom to top over 2600 points. And that was just like, boom, one tweet happened, everything reversed. And that's what I Am skeptical of around this zone. You know, you go back to bitcoin and anything. I think we're one post away from just everything reversing away from where it's, where it's at and breaking down further. So you know, it's hard to say. I would say the technicals and everything are pointing, hey, we need to go lower. But at any moment that that post comes out and we're reversed. So the markets are again we've said this, they're emotional, they're catalyst driven at the moment. So I want to be a little bit careful because of that. But I'm very much willing to do some dollar cost averaging and buy this dip. And I think there's long term success that comes out of it.
- [26:41]
A
All right, great therapy session. Let's end on one. No, one more pull up the charts. One more question. Friend of the show, he's in the chat. He wanted the bandit. He want. So give a little xlmta and then we're going to move on to the rest of the show.
- [26:53]
B
So I got a little bit of a hot take about xlm.
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A
Spicy, spicy on a Friday.
- [26:59]
B
It's gonna get spicy. You know, I apologize if you're a fan of it, but to me XRP is a better version of the XLM chart and XRP is underperforming. So I just view XLM as even more so. Just not something I want to touch at the moment. It behaves very similarly to xrp. You look at this thing over the last several years, the only difference is that XLM has failed to make higher highs and push up to the highs. You look at it since 2018 and then it's run in 2021 and then it's run over here in 2024 and it's continually making lower highs after each mega rally. Now in between these mega rallies, it goes down, it consolidates after moving downwards a lot for a long period of time. And again, this is one of those assets that tends to underperform until it has a catalyst to do otherwise. Then it shifts gears and it becomes an extreme over performer. So that's the way that I look at this is it's, it's either doing 0 or 100. It's either going parabolic. You know, here it did 3000%. You know, here it did 2500%, here it did another 800%. You know, even this most little rally it got over here 130%. It goes on these mega rallies but in between those it tends to be an underperformer. It tends to not do as well. And so I think until there is a reason to get in, until I see that catalyst for a reversal, I stay away from it. And then once it starts, you know, behaving towards the upside, again, I like to, to act on these. So again, me personally, I know XLM and XRP are different, but they just behave similarly. With xrp, you get slightly less upside, but you also typically get less downside. And so I favor it a little bit more because of that.
- [28:45]
A
There it is. Love to hear it. Along with some, some grass clippings out by Brendan. It's Florida, it's springtime, baby. We got to cut the grass. Thank you for that. Again, if you guys are interested in what that segment was, Brendan's deep dive into technical analysis. We have a six week course where you get to learn just the six weeks of all the process and the tools that he uses for charting. Learn the ins and outs of it. It's the micro bull run course and you get live trading with Brendan twice a week for an hour. Cohort is open. You hear it all the time. Hey, it's not open. It's not open. It is open. Today is the day. Click the link in the podcast, click the link in YouTube and check it out. I know Brendan would love to have you. Moving on, we got tons of fundamental news. Let's. We had our nice little therapy session there of how markets are acting. But again, guys, just the fundamentals in crypto just keeps buying, building and building and building. The big one this week that we're leading off with is Coinbase is working on crypto just in general. Crypto backed loans, crypto backed mortgages are here. Increasing home ownership for millions of Americans. It's stuff that we've covered on the show. I think we've been talking about different, maybe some projects trying to do this and implement it. But the, the adoption is hard at a larger scale when you don't have the backings of somebody like Coinbase. So really interesting to see them roll this out. Buy a home without converting your portfolio by using BTC or USDC as collateral for your down payment. Again, this is, this is something that we saw as a headline and again, like I just said, we covered it before and you haven't seen too many people implement it. I know some have. I think we even had them on the podcast. But there's such a bigger threshold to be able to do it and you had to have so much more holdings. I feel like something like this, especially with Coinbase is going to open the door to a lot more people being able to do it. And so you start doing the math. Like, hey, if you're somebody who stacks sats for years and you're sitting on all the. On all these gains and you don't like selling, you don't want to sell your Bitcoin and you don't want to cause a taxable event of selling your Bitcoin to buy a property. This seems like it's going to unlock a lot of capital. And again, coinbase doing it, I think, rolls it out to the masses. So, Brendan, what did you see about this? I know you might be dealing with a little lawnmower background noise, but let's the best you can. What's your take on this?
- [31:11]
B
Yeah, I think that this matters more than people think. Right. At face value, you might say, I don't know if I would do this. You'd be surprised how often someone wealthy, especially from the crypto side, has asked to do this. I've seen it on YouTube channels, which, you know, maybe they're clickbaiting with this kind of stuff, but I've seen people and YouTube channels on different TV shows and different places. I know real life experiences. I've talked to Realtors and people have asked this. I mean, it has legitimately been. Been a real question where I think that this gets asked to realtors more often than. Than you might think. Now, it's obviously not a frequent occurrence. Right. It's not an everyday thing. So I'm not trying to say that every single realtor is asking, is being asked if they can pay in crypto every single day. It's not quite like that, but again, it's. I think it's somewhere in between where it's more frequent than the average person would expect. But it's not like every Realtor is being asked about this every single day. It's a little bit of a happy medium there, but you're right, it's good. And what we see here is we're seeing a bridge happen between the payment systems and what people can actually spend and use their crypto on. We talked about it in the past couple of rundowns about mastercard doing this and other groups doing this, and they're saying, hey, you can go to the store, you can buy groceries and pizza and go to the restaurants, and you can do all this and you can pay with your native cryptocurrency through these new cards that they're pushing out there. This is just the next step in that and saying, okay, well, if you can go to the store and you can buy all these different things with, with your wallet via one of these cards, why can't you go and make bigger purchases as well? Because we obviously have the infrastructure and the tech for that, and that's where this brings us. So I think we're reaching a really cool point where from an adoption standpoint, you can buy both really big and small everyday purchases with cryptocurrency without having to go through the whole process of, you know, selling it off and sending it to your bank and everything else like that.
- [33:15]
A
Yeah, again, it's just, it's access, it's opportunity. And again, I think as these roll out, I think it'll be cool once they start getting used. And obviously there's, there's people that influence in the space and, and I wouldn't be shocked if some people start doing it and kind of maybe lifting the veil and showing you how the loan's working and maybe showing you the proper that they bought with it, that could be like a fun, you know, a fun thing to do. So we'll try and keep track of that and, and maybe there'll be people, you know, the first adopters, if you will. It would be interesting to get to talk to them.
- [33:47]
B
Yeah, I was going to say, if anyone in the chat knows anyone who's interested or has done this, let us know. We'd love to, like, have them on and talk to them about it.
- [33:55]
A
Yeah, 100%. Some more Bitcoin news, Brendan. Bitcoin looks like they're. They're in the Quantum news as well. Looks like they launched a test net, so there's developers, there's people working on Quantum. We always bring up when Ethereum is working on that stuff and other cryptos in the space, because this quantum threat seemed to kind of catch a narrative, a mind of its own. Does anything stick out to you about this news? To me it's like, okay, it's just another headline in the news that there's developers and people working on it. Obviously, if it ever came to a decision like this, the larger meeting of the minds of the bitcoin community would all have to get together and figure this out. Which sounds like a crazy task, but I always find it interesting when you get these little news flows that people are working on stuff.
- [34:43]
E
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- [36:13]
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- [36:43]
B
Yeah, this has been a huge ask for, I think people, right? The, the closer that Quantum gets, the more people want to have something in place to secure us against it. So we've seen Coinbase take initiative on this. We've seen a lot of projects take initiative on this. Now we're continuing to see this. And so this has been a real concern for people because the idea is that AI is going to help accelerate the timeline of Quantum. So even if we were, you know, 15, 30 years out before, you know, maybe now we're five to 10 years out or whatever it may be, you know what I'm trying to say? So that's the idea. And the fear is that, hey, if Quantum gets here faster, it's going to be, it's going to take longer for Bitcoin to become more quantum resistance as opposed to companies, because companies have a centralized structure and they have a CEO who's going to say, hey, we're pouring all of our resources into this because it's important. Bitcoin, however, has to have agreement and it has to vote on this. And it's a little bit more of a drawn out process. And then the whole process, you know, the whole thing is going to take even longer. So I think that's the difference is people want crypto and these crypto projects to be proactive about this approach as opposed to being reactive. Because if it's reactive, there's a chance that it could be too late and something bad could happen and no one wants that. That'd be a really, really bad scenario. So I think everyone's realizing the threat that's there. They're realizing that timelines are moving ahead of schedule and they're getting in front of it. So I think from a fear standpoint, this is something we saw a lot in the news, I'd say over the last six months to a year or so. And now that it's been circulating around the news enough, there is actual action being taken to, to make bitcoin more quantum resistant. And this is huge. Again, it gives me more security. It kind of gets rid of that whole argument. Anyone? This is a little bit of like one of my pet peeves, so I'm going to rant here a little bit. I got to have a little bit of copium. But one of my pet peeves is anytime I meet someone who's not super knowledgeable on crypto and they don't like it, their gripe is oh well, when quantum computing gets here, it's going to. Bitcoin is going to be the first thing to go, it's going to break and it's going to be useless. And it's like, it's like they chatgpt a line to say to someone that likes crypto and then this is their copy pasted response every time. So anyway, this will like there's a million arguments you could be made that could be made as to how that's not necessarily the case and how it's an oversimplification. But this would just be like the nail in the coffin to that being like well actually that's not entirely true. Anyway, I digress. I think that, you know, regardless, crypto is going to succeed. It's going to be here for a while. And quantum resistant upgrades are not anything new to crypto projects as they've been Working on this for a long time.
- [39:31]
A
Great points, great points. Just to before we jump to the next segue, backtrack to the mortgages, we had a question from Art Sync in the chat. Haven't seen that name in the chat before for. So welcome Art, hope you're subscribed. But we always like to answer people in the chat that join us on Fridays. He asked, is it just for these bitcoin backed mortgages, crypto backed mortgages for the US and Canada or just us? I did a quick research on the back end, tried to get a Google and an AI crossbreed of an answer. So take this with a grain of salt but as of now what I'm seeing is this is just for the US market, no official launch for Canada or anywhere else. So this is going to be targeting the US market for these crypto backed loans, at least to start. Because obviously the regulation for that is, is going to be different maybe within sometimes each state, if not each, definitely obviously each country. So just for the US now but, but we'll, we'll obviously keep tracking it, which is what we do. Some big news out of Tether that I saw you were excited for. I mean this is, this is big time. So Tether signs up with a big four accounting firm for the first time ever for a full independent audit. I. So I Tethered people are sometimes always saying there's a lot of chatter, where are the reserves? Is it real? I know you're excited about this, Brennan. Take it away. What are you looking for here?
- [40:55]
B
This is awesome. We have, you know, we've spoken to the CEO or not. The CEO I think is one of the founders of Tether. We talked to them and it's everyone's biggest gripe has been, oh, Tether doesn't have the reserves. They're fake, they're fraudulent, they're sketchy, it's not really there. They would never get one of these things done because they're faking the numbers and they're offshores, you name it. There's been a million things people have said and they've gotten, you know, small audits, bigger audits, bigger ones. And then people always said, oh well, they would never do a big four accounting firm. They would never do that because they would never pass it. And so Tether said, hold my beer, I'm going in. And it's doing it. And I think that this, I hope, I hope, right. I hope that this finally shuts up. You know, to be blunt, I hope that this finally shuts up a Lot of the Tether fud. Now granted, I love USDC too, right. I really do like usdc. Full disclosure, I've got exposure to Circle. It's not like I hate or hate one and love the other. I like them both. I think that in the past it was sketchy some of the things that have happened with Tether, but I think that they've come a long way in proven themselves since then. So this is huge news to everyone. It's funny, almost anyone I talk to is in real life situations who are again not super crypto native but are somewhat into the space. They're always afraid of tether. And maybe it's just because I've had again getting to talk to the founders and the team. Maybe that's why I have more faith in them. But this is a big deal. I think that if they go through this and they get this comes out and everything's good, then this is a huge step for them. I don't know what kind of holes people can shoot into them anymore. You can say whatever you want about the past. Again they, they've had some sketchy moments in the past, but I think moving forward, if they get a big four accounting firm to go through and do a financial statement audit and they come out of it unscathed, I'm not sure what else people would want or what kind of excuses would be made. So this is a huge step for security of the entire industry. People have always said that Tether is going to be a company that blows up and it's going to take crypto down with it. If this passes, it would seem that that whole argument becomes a lot less likely.
- [43:18]
A
Again, just great points. Nothing to add other than stablecoin usage as a whole is it just keeps like blowing out of the water. This is some USDC stats. We've seen over 359% processed like usage of USDC that where it was a year ago. So stablecoin demand isn't slowing down. We've heard this stablecoin market just keeps growing and growing and growing and you know, obviously the banks and the rails and part of the Clarity act is what we're trying to figure out here is like hey, how are these rewards going to get divvied out? And I don't know. We talked about it me and you on Tuesday, right? We're like, oh, we see the Clarity act, the odds are rising but then the, the tidbits coming out of why it's rising and the agreement does not seem to be going in favor of the people to be able to get their stablecoin rewards. Nothing solid yet, but again, stable coins just keep growing. Anything else from the stablecoin market catching your eye, Brendan?
- [44:19]
B
No, I would just agree. You're seeing it grow with Eth. You're seeing it grow on Solana. You're seeing stable coins grow everywhere. There's a lot of want and need for them. We're actually going to be talking to Solana's team next week, so stay tuned. The podcast will probably take two good ones next week.
- [44:37]
A
Two good ones.
- [44:38]
B
Coinbase. I mean, is this a spoiler alert, Thibaut? Don't get me in trouble for this.
- [44:41]
A
Well, they're not going to air next week. We're recording them so they'll air like the week after. But yeah, give the people a sample.
- [44:47]
B
Yeah, so we got Coinbase and Solana next week, two big names from both of those companies. And so we're stoked. We'll talk about stablecoins. And in fact that was one of the requested topics for these podcasts where like, guys, can we talk about stablecoins? I saw it in the PR notes, so we're going to talk about them a whole lot more. Stay tuned for those. And yeah, a little bit of a sneak peek.
- [45:10]
A
Yeah. Back to the stable coins. We got stablecoin infrastructure, financial institutions partnering. We got Visa and Canton. Visa and Canton seem to be partnering here as a super validator, aiming to bring privacy preserving blockchain payments and stablecoin infrastructure. So again, just, it's just part of this news flow, guys. These, these projects that we've now been talking and doing interviews, right? We interviewed Canton, we've talked about Hyper Liquid, we've talked about Tao. Like it's, there's a lot of just great fundamental news and some price action has followed through. Obviously we've covered with Hyper Liquid and Towel recently, but that's why we, this is what we do for you guys and we love it. We're in the reeds researching, trying to find bullish news. One that hit the Bloomberg Wire that we saw Franklin Templeton partnering with Ando to have all their ETFs tokenized so people on chain can enjoy the cheap. Beta tokenization isn't a threat to ETFs. It's distribution. So is the tokenization of everything really just a liquidity unlock? Right. Getting more people involved? I think that's the, that's the highlight, that's the quick hitter. But then what does that look like? Like if you're tokenizing anything, everything and Bringing in liquid, how does it actually tie into the actual asset that you're tokenizing for. For like a mark from like a market cap perspective? I think that's the most interesting thing of, like, how is everything going to trade 24. 7, 365? How does it correlate?
- [46:46]
B
Yeah, that's a good question. And, you know, there's a couple of different ways that they can go about this. It'll be interesting to see which one succeeds, which one becomes the go to way. I think just giving people 24. 7 Access is what a lot of people want. Right. Hyper Liquid just partnered with the S and P to make 2407 access to the S&P 500. That's a big deal. We're seeing this happen in other ways for other products now. Kind of like what we're reporting on right now. I don't think we have all the answers to this. Right. I wish we did. And I wish we could come in and say, oh, you know, here's the answers and here's how this is going to play out and here's how it solves the liquidity stuff. Again, there's a couple different ways that this can go. And so we'll be bringing this back up and we'll be talking about it in the future. But I'm curious as well, TiVo. Nonetheless, it's a big deal. We're moving in the right direction. And I think that as we progress, we'll get more of those answers,
- [47:46]
A
push forward, keep getting answers if there's. Speaking of answers, if you guys have any questions, we got two quick hitters. And then we can do some questions. I see one that came in. So we'll do questions at the end, throw them in the chat. That's how we'll wrap up on Friday. A couple fun ones to end with. Brendan, have you ever heard of the movie Dune?
- [48:04]
B
Yes.
- [48:05]
A
So a fun little tweet I saw here was when Dune 1 and Dune 2, when the trailers were released, it marked a bottom of the bear market. If you pull up this tweet from Crypto Kaleo here. So Dune, Dune part one was the bear market there. And then Dune, Dune two, the trailer release, got a nice little bottom there. And now we just hit Dune 3 has been released. So maybe, maybe some. Some Hopium there. If you want to add the Dune trailers to your. Your charts, your chart indicators. We talked about the McRib, now we're talking Dune trailers. A lot of grasping for Hopium here. Maybe this is a bottom.
- [48:47]
B
Well, the real bottom doesn't happen TiVo until we get another crypto bagel. So I mean, what, you're in charge of that. That's something that you have control of. When are we getting the next crypto?
- [48:59]
A
I don't know. I got to go back to the northeast. I mean that was like, that was, that was a summer vacation up north. We got those good bagels, brought them to the beach. So I don't know, hopefully, hopefully we bounce before then. But we'll keep an eye out. We'll keep an eye out for a good bagel. I want to talk about this with everybody on our team because I just want a fun take from everybody on it. You're the first one to talk about this on the pod. Me and you and I'm going to get. Definitely need to get Brian and Joe's take as well. But the, the Poly Market Situation Room. It seems as though Poly Market is opening up a bar and they're going to call it the Situation Room. It's the world's first bar dedicated to monitoring the situation. So it looks like, I mean this is clearly just a rendering, but they, they have the idea of, hey, you're gonna have all the news and the stock market and the business channels and the world news channels and sports. I mean, I mean you can tie easily into sports obviously, and you're just gonna have all the prediction markets, you know, all over the, all over the walls. And I was thinking about this, obviously, sports, like a sports bar was a no brainer for like sports and gambling. But like think of all the big speeches. You could have like a, you could have like a State of the union party and start, you know, you start placing your, your wagers of what, what words are gonna hit or how many times. You know, you could have a party. We like to do the lives with the Fed meetings when we can and watch the Fed meeting live. So maybe we could do a live from the Situation Room. And they. Dude, that's what it's gonna be. I'm telling you. Come this, this really ties into my barstool roots of like part of the whole barstool thing was that we were always live streaming the, the, the, the, the sports betting. Yes, that it was, you know, people would stream the barstool guys watching. Yeah, well, it's sweating, sweating your bets. And so like there, there's a whole content arm that's going to grow from this as well. For, for Polymar. I think it's a great idea. Are you going to the Situation Room?
- [50:55]
B
Well, here's My. My gripe with it was fantastic idea. I'm a little bit bummed because we were talking inside of, like, our analyst groups and our internalist groups, like, a couple of weeks before this came out. And we were saying, hey, you know what would be a really good idea? To open up a bar for. For the betting markets. And then they come out and they've done it. My only gripe is that why dc? You know, how many better cities you could have this in? My. My brain immediately went to put this in Miami. I'm biased. You know, we're both in Florida. But I think we can agree that, bias aside, Miami would be great for this. You have all, like, the finance gurus and grifters down there. And, like, I just feel like it fit the. The total degenerate crowd down there. So you have all the Miami guys that would love this. I also think, obviously, put it in New York for all the Wall street people. They would love this kind of thing. I'd even argue Chicago would be.
- [51:50]
A
Chicago would be a good one.
- [51:52]
B
Yeah, I think any three of those would buyer.
- [51:55]
A
I think. I can't believe it's not in New York. That's my. That's my take is I can't believe this is not in New York City.
- [52:01]
B
But love the idea, right? Love the idea. I think it's amazing. It's. It's fire. It's exciting. I hope to be able to go. To go to this thing. I also hope they.
- [52:12]
A
CJ says he. He needs one in Orange County. I don't know about that. I don't know if Orange County's gonna get riled up about the situation.
- [52:22]
B
Yeah, I don't know about Orange County. Maybe Vegas. Vegas could be a good one too.
- [52:25]
A
Vegas. Vegas.
- [52:27]
B
I could see that. Like, those, I think, would be my top four. Hopefully they expand. Dude, we gotta send someone to this because I saw that they had a soft opening or something and that all the power was out. Did you see that?
- [52:41]
A
The Situation Room did.
- [52:43]
B
Yeah.
- [52:43]
A
No, I did not see that.
- [52:45]
B
Yeah, I saw people going through it, and all the screens were off. The power is out. People are just, like, standing there. But it was the market one, huh?
- [52:53]
A
It was the Poly Market one.
- [52:55]
B
Yes, it was this exact one. Try to see if you can find the video. But there's people walking through it and, like, all the power is out and the bartenders just, like, handing people drinks and no one's really socializing.
- [53:07]
A
Oh, no. Oh, no. Oh, no. The viral, much anticipated Poly Market Situation Room is not going due to Power issues. Most of the TVs aren't working. The globe is. Is, though.
- [53:21]
B
Yes. And everything.
- [53:22]
A
No. Look at that poor lady. We got a thread. 7pm updates tells me the TVs will not be on tonight at all.
- [53:29]
B
Yeah. Click on the picture. Yep, there it is.
- [53:32]
A
Oh, this does not. Oh, this does not look as fun as the. Oh, no.
- [53:36]
B
That's what I'm saying.
- [53:37]
A
This does not look like this. What is going on? What is going on?
- [53:42]
B
It would never be that way in Miami. The power would be.
- [53:44]
A
No. Okay. This is. I. Before you brought this up, I was gonna be like, oh, man, this is so funny. My last thought on this was gonna be like, the concept is so good, they better not half ass it.
- [53:56]
B
Ah, it looks.
- [53:58]
A
And they.
- [53:58]
B
Did they have to ask it a Little bit, man.
- [54:01]
A
9pm Update. They closed the bar. No picture. They closed the bar. And live music has ended. Things are wrapping up. I'm sorry I missed this. Good catch. That's. That's a great catch by you. That's pain. Yeah, that's a pain. The final report. What do they do?
- [54:17]
B
Going bad here? But talking to folks here that are here at this event, this place, this bar is packed. As you can see, they really fall into two camps. One of the camps is 80 TVs here that are not working around here. What this place looks like. We do have the guy's headphones in. Look.
- [54:36]
A
Oh, that's. That's devastating. What a tweet. Who could have predicted
- [54:44]
B
tragic?
- [54:45]
A
Well, that's a flop. I. I was. I. I don't know. That was. My final point was take your time and make this thing the real deal. Not like a pop up. That looked like a pop up. That's not. That doesn't look like. And that's probably what it was. Like, the odds of them. I thought they were, like, going for it, like, buying a bar, running it. That seems like they partnered and we're doing like a pop up to see if it would work and the TVs didn't work. So. Yeah, that's a. That's a. That's a false. That's a false flag.
- [55:13]
B
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a. It's a fantastic idea because. Well, my thought is that they did the whole pop up grocery store right now they're doing this. I think this could be a great business model. They should. Someone should make this a business model anyway. Yeah.
- [55:30]
A
All right. Yeah, that's. I'm just. I'm kind of taken back. This is why I love live shows because, like, I'm taken back. That's like it kind of ruined my day. I was like, it kind of ruined my day because I'm, you know me, I'm a nightlife guy. I like to go out, I like to be in the mix and I have, I have some hospitality experience and like you said, it's such a great idea. They just didn't execute on it. Hey, Crypto101's here to consult for, for the grand relaunch. So give us a shout. Give us a shout. Baylor Bear says is there any hope left for crypto? Come on, B, you're here all the time with us. We know you listen to most of our episodes. How can you not have hope with all the fundamental news that we're talking about? Of course there's hope for crypto. Come on now. Question from Michael. Interesting here. There's a lot of news going around about the SpaceX IPO. Who's gonna do it? I think the Goldman Sachs I saw was favored on Polymarket slash Kalshi for who was going to bring that IPO to market. I saw a cool thing that SpaceX wants to make sure the distribution is a little different. Getting, making sure retail gets a, get some action to some of the, the shares pre ipo, which is cool but will that correlate with Bitcoin? I think I, I have a take of. They're talking about spoiled looks like SpaceX is now moving towards doing it and open AI is another one and I think that some of these IPOs could be a liquidity suck eventually just across the major markets as a whole. Like not, not a long term thing but just when these things go live it, it's going to be crazy I feel like and I don't know which way it's going to go but it, it definitely feels like there could be a lot of capital flowing to these huge huge names. I don't think we've ever seen companies IPO at the level that these companies are going to go out the gate. Right?
- [57:24]
B
Yeah. Records I think SpaceX, I could be wrong but I think it's expected to be the largest ipo. I think it's the largest privately held company or one of them. But I, I just looked at a chart of this but yeah, it's expected to be like one of the largest if not the largest ever.
- [57:42]
A
1.75 trillion which would make it the largest public debut ever.
- [57:48]
B
Holy cow.
- [57:50]
A
Yeah man. It's going to be crazy. Looking at this is just a quick search but unconventional retail friendly IPO to raise 75 billion at a 1.75 trillion valuation filing late March, which they're there, looks like they're working on. And a listing as early as June of this year, mid June or July of this year. Interesting. So that's definitely something we'll be watching. I mean, it falls into the tech, you know, macro space. It's going to be a cool event. So something that we will definitely track. But great question, great question. Any thoughts? Any final thoughts, Brandon, before we close out?
- [58:31]
B
No, I think that's it for me. Just buckle up, right? The market's pretty volatile. I would think that the choppiness and the volatility isn't going anywhere until we get that, that one specific post. But in the meantime, guys, buckle up. It's volatile out there. Stay safe. And we're gonna keep reporting on everything.
- [58:51]
A
Yeah, we'll be here through it all with you guys, as we always are. We truly, truly appreciate it. If you're still in the live, give us a thumbs up. If you're new, bottom right, hit the logo. Subscribe final call over the weekend, it'll be open and then it'll close next week. The cohort starts on Monday for Brendan's live training course, so check the link for that. We always appreciate everybody tuning in with us, especially on a Friday afternoon. I really hope everybody enjoys their day, enjoys their weekend. But that's all for now, everybody. We'll talk to you later. Bye. Bye.
- [59:28]
C
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- [60:57]
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When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Grainger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products in fast, dependable delivery so you can keep your facility stocked, safe and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER clickgrainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.