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TiVo
Foreign.
Brendan
Welcome back everyone, to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's happening in the great world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts. We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to. And we are continuing the theme of volatility this year with the crypto market taken a little bit of a move to the downside. Maybe a little bit is a tad of an understatement, TiVo. But we are seeing a pretty decent size pullback across the board. I mean, bitcoin is breaking $90,000 for the first time really since November. Ever since we had that initial breakout that sent us over 90k, over 100k, Bitcoin had defended $90,000 nearly a dozen time over the last four months. And we're starting to see this very, very crucial support level crack on bitcoin as it goes all the way back down towards $85,000. This, of course, is sending altcoins much deeper. We're seeing these deep retracements off the highs of a lot of altcoins. Salon is going to be getting hit harder than a lot of the other ones. We're going to be breaking down why that's the case. But we also want to talk about all the catalysts that kind of caused this situation in the first place. Because contrary to popular belief, this isn't just happening because of one specific catalyst. In fact, it's a collection of different catalysts. And that's what we want to talk about in today's episode. We're going to talk about what's happening on Solana. We're going to talk about Libra, we're going to talk about this massive just instance of theft, this hack that happened over on Bybit, which is the largest instant of theft in global history. Not just crypto history, but global history. On top of that, we have all sorts of tradfi risks, we have tariff risks, we have a lot of FUD over on that end. There's even some FUD around MicroStrategy. However, it's not all doom and gloom. And I think that's where people are getting this wrong, is that they're only looking at the negatives. They're not looking at all the positives that we got out there. And there's a lot of really, really positive stuff that's happening in the crypto space as well. So we're going to be diving into some of these positives. Some of the opportunities that lie in the crypto market, you know, specifically around the sec. The SEC has started really dialing back on their efforts to go after crypto projects and crypto companies. So we're going to be talking about how this is happening with Coinbase, how this is happening with Uniswap. Robin Hood is dialing in on the action. We have all sorts of new cryptocurrency ETFs getting filed and launching from Franklin, Templeton and Grayscale. We have just record breaking events happening from that front with our first ever crypto index and new altcoin ETFs being applied for. And we want to make sure that we talk about the fortune teller of the space with CZ towards the end. So I hope all of you enjoyed that little sneak peek. We got a lot of great stuff in store for all of you today. We're going to be talking about the good, the bad, the ugly and everything in between. But before we do that TiVo, are you feeling the energy, are you feeling alive from these, from these red candles?
TiVo
Yeah. Another week, another event that you know, some might be say, like it's the event of the year. Like if you go and recap, you know, the year, like an end of year review, like it feels like every week there's something that you'd have to mention at the year, the year end review and the, yeah, that, that hack for you know, one point, what was it, 1.5 billion on Bybit is, is definitely something I think we'll be talking about at the year end review. But yeah, the market, yeah, I think it's not just crypto. Right. Crypto's definitely got a huge black eye, especially the altcoins, which I know you're going to show us in a second. But there's a lot more, if you zoom out, there's a lot more going on that you know, all markets are trying to digest that we're going to talk about. So yeah, definitely, definitely, definitely feeling it. I, I, I didn't shave for like two weeks and then this morning I woke up and I was just like, all right, like we gotta, we got a show to do. We got, we gotta get it right here. So I'm clean shaven Mr. Mustache here today and I think, yeah, again it's, it's a zoom out, it's a zoom out week. But let's dive into the nitty gritty because I think on this show, you know, I think we called it both sides that especially I remember our year end show, we Said, you know, it's never straight up. There's always some unforeseen, you know, issue going to pop up. You know, specifically, I know we talked about that in the year end show. It just, it seems too easy. It's a no brainer. We're going straight up and that's not the case. So let's dive into it and yeah, educate.
Brendan
Yeah. You know, and who knows, maybe I'll be joining you next week with the clean shave. I'll make a little bet here. Bitcoin can get back above 90k before next week's episode. I'll just come in straight baby faced, the hair staying on the head but you know, the facial hair, you know, will, will remove all of it if bitcoin can recover above 90k here. So you know, TiVo, I might be joining you in the not so distant future. But let's take a look at the charts. You know, this is that move that we were talking about and for so long we have been watching bitcoin down here saying hey, look at all the bounces off this 90k zone going from November to December, January and now really all of February. And we're holding true, or we, we were holding true to this until just really the start of this week. And that's where we started to see the breakdown. And if we add in some of these moving averages we can start to see that hey, bitcoin had a really hard time with this 15, 20 day moving average. And there was a little bit of a squeeze effect here as the short term moving averages were pushing us downwards with pressure into this 90k floor. And this was something that I was very bullish on until I started to see how this was happening towards the end of last week. And it wasn't really towards the end of last week that I started pivoting from hey, we can hold this, we can go back to the highs to hey, we're starting to look a little bit more weaker here. And you know, sure enough we, we, we have and we started to see a pretty drastic fall through this floor and now bitcoin is closing below 90k for the first time since the middle of November. So this is the lowest point that we've been in the last several months for bitcoin. It's a big support that is breaking up here. And now what we need to do is kind of zoom out over here and say, okay, well what do we have on bitcoin's history? And we can zoom out and see, hey, there's really no data over here from 90k essentially down to the low 70s. This is just an area where there's a big old gap in the chart until we reach this previous high around $73,000. Now you could say, hey, you know, we had this 200 day moving average right around 81k, 82k, that's not too far away. But beyond that there is not a ton going on here until we get back closer to the low 70,000 range. So I hope that we can bounce here. I hope that we can just have a V shaped recovery and go back up. But this is something to note. I think the other big thing that I'm watching out for here before we get into all those catalysts is even if we do bounce here, you know, are we going to come back up and reject 90k and use it as a resistance? You know, this was a huge support zone previously, so is that now going to turn into a resistance? And if so, I think that's a warning sign to keep an eye on. And that could be one of the bad case scenarios that could send us lowers if we do one of these like inverse break hook and goes to send us down deeper. So that's on my watch list this week. Again, I hope that the bulls can come in here, just destroy the bears, take back the RA and do all that. But I am erring on the side of a little bit of skepticism. I think that zooming out of the short term where I think I have a little bit of a, of a bearish outlook, I think the mid to long term here is, hey, this is probably one of our final dips to the downside. Maybe we go a little bit deeper, maybe we don't. But I think as we zoom out, I really do believe that this move down here is going to be one of the final kind of capitulation moments where people push the final sell orders through, we get this final deeper dip and then from this we can have a really nice recovery. Like we've already seen through some of these sideways consolidation runs in the past. You know, if you go to even just last year we had a big old period of time where we chopped sideways for a bit, broke below the 200 day moving average and then went to new highs. Even the year before that we saw a very, very similar situation where we chopped sideways for a bit, broke below the 200 day moving average and then went to new highs. So I don't think that that's out of the picture over here. And I don't even think a move like this while it is not great to see. I don't think that it means that it's the end of the bull market or the end of the day for crypto because we have seen, you know, if we measure this one out from, from top to bottom, you know we have seen bitcoin be able to fall 30, 35% breaking below the 200 day moving average for an extended period of time and then recover to new all time highs. You know that's something that we've already seen multiple times in previous cycles but we've also seen it multiple times in this very cycle that we're in. So nothing too new over here. Again not great to see, not fun to experience but it certainly doesn't mean that the it's the end of the market by any means. We also saw bitcoin dominance kind of pushing up to borderline new multi year highs. It is falling a little bit down today as altcoins are recovering. But I think that that has a lot to do with just altcoins being oversold. You know we take a look at these and they had some pretty big red candles in recent days. You know Solana having a near 16 down day on Monday, XRP not following too far behind, down almost 12%. If we go and we look at some of these other ones, you know, avax over here, minus 12% day, near another one minus 11% day. So they've been getting hit a little bit harder. But now what we're starting to see is that altcoins are recovering. They had a pretty good recovery yesterday. They're kind of continuing on that theme of recovery today and that's what we like to see. You know there still are outliers out here and I always like to show a couple of positive outliers. Maker just non stop green action, this thing is up almost 122%. This in the last like 30 days alone. So maker is crushing it over here. Going up over 100%. Another big one that I have seen. Winning has been a mantra and we've talked about this one quite a bit. It hit a new all time high on Sunday. Seeing a little bit of a retracement right now. But there are not too many other altcoin charts that you're going to see looking like this. That's just up and to the right. And of course there are other outlier outliers out there as well. You know we've had Phantom here in recent days recovering off the lows, breaking above the 200 day moving average, moving 204 to the upside off that low in just under a month's time. So there are altcoins that are certainly moving and seeing some positive price action. And I think that's what's going to be important to keep an eye on here is what are those altcoins that are winning even when the market as a whole is in a little bit more of a bearish environment for those traditional, you know, for those traditional altcoins that we're used to TiVo. So lots of stuff to kind of talk about on that front. And I think the next segment that we need to kind of address here, just beyond even what's happening on the charts, is what are these catalysts that caused us to fall in the first place? Right. You know, why are we breaking 90k in the first place? Why are we falling back into the 80s? Why are altcoins falling to new lows? Why are we having these red days? You know, why aren't we at new all time highs? And that's the question that everyone wants to have answered here. So let's go ahead and examine what's happening because as we said at the start of this episode, it's not just a single catalyst. This isn't just a single event that is causing us to dip. It's actually a collection of a bunch of different catalysts that are just all happening at the same time. And Steve, I think that, you know, you, you put this in a really good way saying, hey, this is the Bermuda Triangle of fear in the markets.
TiVo
Yeah, I think that's, I guess we'll do zoom out and then we'll zoom in specifically to crypto. So I came up with the Bermuda, Bermuda Triangle of fear and it starts with tariffs. So you have, you know, Donald Trump saying that tariffs are on schedule even though he delayed them a little bit, he's still planning at least, you know, from a verb verbal standpoint on tariffs on Mexico and in Canada, etc. So, you know, that's something that, you know, kind of spooks the market of like an unknown and then on. So that's one point of the triangle. And the other point of the triangle, you have Elon and Doge. And you know, that's a pretty polarizing topic. Whether you agree with it or not. The facts are he's cutting jobs and when you're cutting that amount of federal jobs, like there's a, there's a high chance that it could affect the job number of unemployment as well as maybe, you know, a de stimulant to the economy, if, you know, tons of people are out of work and it actually affects the unemployment job. So those two points meet at the Fed. And so what's the Fed's mandate? It's stable prices, which is inflation based. Right. Keep inflation down as much as you can at like a 2% mandate. And then the other side is high, you know, low unemployment. So it's an employment number and it's inflation. And then that's that. That's the point of the triangle where they meet because tariffs affect inflation and Doge is affecting the job number. So, you know, we've all been rooting for this weight rate cycle. And I remember all our episodes a year ago were just based around cutting rates. When are the rates going to cut? When are the rates going to cut? It's going to be a green light. It's going to be a green light. And that worked. I mean, we were waiting on pins and needles, but it worked. If you followed that formula of don't fight the Fed, you know, you bought bitcoin low and you wrote it up to 100,000 plus. And so now there's too many unknowns. And the markets, from the stock market down to the crypto, is just trying to digest this unknown. And I think a lot of people, especially the bigger hedge funds, are just saying, like, hey, we're going to wait. We got plenty of cash. We can clip coupons at 4 and a half, 5% of cash right now, depending on how you build out that portfolio. So they're taking some gains. Obviously, there's been a ton of gains to take and building those portfolios of just putting cash to work in different ways. And then I think the momentum collapse that we've seen over the last 10 days is retail heading out the door. I'll try and find the stat while you go over some other things here with the meme coins, rug pulls. But there was some stat on Monday. It was staggering. It was retail. And they classify retail traders as, you know, like me and you, because we don't run, you know, $1 billion hedge fund. But there is some stat that this Monday, February 24, was the highest sell for retail traders in like two hours of an opening market. And it was the highest sell ratio from back to March of 2020, which obviously was the pandemic and nobody knew what was happening in the world. So I thought that was an interesting stat that retail was running, running for the door in the stock market on Monday.
Brendan
Yeah, you know, I believe it. It was, it was a scary day. And investor Sentiment has been kind of low here. People have been nervous at the highs. And kind of going back to the idea of some of these other catalysts, I saw Matt Hogan put this really, really well on X and what he was saying is that, hey, it's this collection of catalysts. And if you look at what's been happening in the meme coin side of things, there's just been a lot of FUD over there. If you look at what happened with the Trump token and the Melania token, these things with massive market caps just kind of collapsing, not being rugged pulled, but just kind of collapsing, then you have all the other altcoins that are either collapsing or are just getting rug pulled. And the number of rug pulls on Solana has just been increasing. And we've talked about this in recent weeks and I don't want to push it down too much because we like Solana. I love the Solana ecosystem. I'm invested in, you know, Solana and Jupiter and Radium and a lot of projects over there. However, we got to call it for what it is. And the rug pulls have been super frustrating for investors and it's been one of the things bogging down the environment as that number has grown. So then you look at some of the really big rug pulls like, like Libra, for example, that was a devastating one for investors. You know, over $100 million taken away from them, rug pulled out there. And that was really frustrating. And then the final kind of like kick down low was the Bybit hack. You know, the buyback hack is the largest instant of theft in global history. And I have a little chart here to kind of show this. So I'm going to throw this up here in just a second. But this was a big deal. If you look at this in comparison to some of our other, you know, hacks and exploits in crypto history, it blows them out of the water. In fact, even when you look at this compared to the previous largest, you know, there's an article here that talks about it, and I'm going to zoom in just a little bit so everyone can see this. But it says that the record was previously held by Saddam Hussein, who stole a billion dollars from the Iraqi central bank in 2003. So that held the previous record, and this is almost 50% higher than that. And when you compare it to some of these other crypto hacks and exploits that we've seen in the past, again, this is like two to three times as big as a lot of those ones are. So we have this one Coming in at almost $1.5 billion. And then the second place was around 600 million. The third place was in the five hundreds. And then we kind of see this number floating around $500 million for a lot of these big hacks showing that this was around two to three times as big as a lot of these other ones that we've witnessed in the past. And you know, even on a global scale outside of crypto, it was pretty sizable in nature. So it really has been this perfect storm where we saying, hey, the Solana ecosystem, which has contributed the bulk of activity here in recent months, that's starting to slow down. People are getting tired of these rug pulls. There's been a bunch of unfortunate things happening on that side. Now we're looking at Libra. Now we're looking at this, this by this buy bit hack. There's also the fears of tariffs in the tradfi markets crashing and invest in investor competence falling. There's all these separate things that are kind of coming together to be this perfect storm to push the markets down deeper. And you know, maybe we were due for this because I felt like a couple of weeks ago we were gloating on here saying there hasn't been bad news in so long, I don't know what's going to be able to push us down. You know, all it's been is just good news, good news, good news. It's going to take something crazy for us to go down. Well, maybe we, maybe we jinxed ourselves because now we actually are getting a series of unfortunate events that is justifiable to see us move down. Now do I think we're going to 10k, 20k, 30k on Bitcoin now? You know, I don't think we're going anywhere near there. In fact, when you look at all these, these crazy black swan events that took us to break 90k, I can't imagine what it would take to get us down to that point. So I still think that there's a lot of positive things on the horizon. And when you look at the sheer amount of fud and bad news it took for us to break even the 90k support level, I almost view that as bullish, saying, hey, in previous markets we would have crashed a lot further than a 10 to 20% pullback. If we got this stuff in the past, you know, this time around, it took everything in the arsenal to get us down to this point. And again, I do think we are kind of coming back to just fire sale prices on a lot of these.
TiVo
Cryptocurrencies yeah, not on the sheet. Here, I'll take over. Here's. Here's that number I was telling everybody about. So, retail traders sell 1.1 billion in first two hours on Monday. And this article is buying a paywall. But I, I did hear and read about it. It was, yeah, it was the largest number of sale for retail traders in the first two hours since the pandemic. So people, people are feeling it. And then I can't believe we didn't put this on the sheet, funny enough, a couple weeks ago, maybe about a month ago, because we didn't look at it a while. Brendan, do you remember we put up the Fear Greed index and we were. I think it was like about maybe neutral, maybe, maybe greed still even. Let's throw that up on the screen here, guys. It's been a massive year in crypto with big price movements, headlines everywhere, and major institutions with even countries getting involved. That's why you're here listening to this podcast right now. And if you've been curious but feel like you've missed the boat, don't worry, there's still time, like we talk about on these episodes every week. With only 21 million Bitcoin ever to exist, it's designed to be scarce. And that scarcity can mean real staying power. And the team at Coin Flip Preferred believe stepping into crypto should be simple, secure, and on your terms. That's why they pair you with a dedicated crypto expert who guides you through every step, from your very first transaction to more advanced solutions. Plus, Coin Flip is a registered money services business and does not custody funds, so you stay in control and protected. With nearly a decade of collective experience, Coin Flip Preferred client managers know the space inside and out. If you already explore the world of digital assets with confidence, visit coin flip tech crypto101 or use the promo code crypto101 for 50% off transaction fees valid 1 per customer until May 30, 2025.
C
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TiVo
21.
Brendan
Yeah.
TiVo
Extreme fear.
Brendan
When's the last time that we saw extreme fear too, I, I was looking at this yesterday. Yeah, take it over, take it over.
TiVo
No, well, last month you see there's 71 greed. I literally think we looked at this a month ago and we, we were kind of doing the dips, you know, we're hitting the 90 to 98, nine, you know, whatever. And, and I was like, man, it doesn't feel like people are in greed. It felt more neutral maybe. And obviously this indicator sometimes lacks it lags a couple days or whatnot. But I remember we were in greed and then now to see it, I mean, bam. Last week, fear now extreme fear at 21. And I know that there's some historical relevance to this type of metric as well. Sorry to cut you off, but jump in.
Brendan
Yeah, 100%. You know, this is one of the lowest levels that we've seen in a really long time and depending on I guess what fear and greed index you look at, I mean this is arguably like multi year lows or really, really close to it. I was looking at the coin market cap one and they have a little chart saying like, hey, this is the last time that we were this low and we really haven't been this low in a long time. So again, when we're looking at a point of extreme fear, this is historically, you know, not an awful level to be looking at a buy, especially when we're in an overall uptrend. So keeping a close eye on this.
TiVo
Yeah, here's that coin market cap chart you're talking about too.
Brendan
Yeah. And you can see again, this is like the lowest point. This one isn't in extreme fear yet, it's really, really close. But you can see that in the, in their recorded history, you know, this is like the lowest that we can even see rivaling some of these big push backs that we got going all the way back to September when we had a big flush out below the 200 day moving average. And you know, this time we're getting back to that 200 day moving average and we're not even below the 200 day or, or we're not even at that same point yet. So yeah, I mean, worth keeping an eye on and yeah, lots of stuff all around.
TiVo
Yeah, just something, you know, it's all about just collecting the data points, educating. And again, it's a zoom out type of day. Sorry to take us off track there, but I thought that was a good one to build in.
Brendan
No, I think it was a good point, man. I think it was a great point and Some of the other big stuff that we've seen here is that the SEC is dropping a lot of these cases and this will kind of transition us into a lot of the good things is that the SEC is really starting to dial back on a lot of these cryptocurrency related cases. It started with last week, us, I believe, talking about what was happening on the Coinbase side of things and them kind of stepping away from the Coinbase case. Well, now we're seeing that the next one on the list has to do with the uni swap case. And even Robinhood has been dialing in here saying, hey, the SEC is missing, dismissing all of these crypto cases across the board.
TiVo
The. Yeah, no, it's, it's again, positive, positive sentiment to kind of see the sec. I guess we, this is one of the things like we knew it was coming so specifically for Coinbase. I was kind of watching that and maybe trying to trade around that announcement and it didn't work. Like the announcement came out and Coinbase was stuck in the momentum downtrend, so wasn't super exciting for that. I know that, I know that Robin Hood. This is, you know, this week Vlad had a good interview. So that's, that's kind of bouncing back a little bit on kind of just the broader take of what Robinhood could be. But yeah, I think it was something that we knew was coming, which is great to see it in action and hopefully that this is, you know, a forward looking, you know, kind of sign that a lot of other things maybe the administration has been talking about towards crypto could, could and will come true in the near future.
Brendan
Yeah, certainly, man. Well, you know, I think one of the last things that we'll, that we'll talk about here is, you know, beyond some of these new ETF applications, we got an index coming in from Franklin Templeton, we got a new, we have a new polka dot ETF coming in from Grayscale. But CZ had some pretty bold predictions. Isn't that right, TiVo?
TiVo
Yeah, yeah, CZ. I call him CZ the Fortune Teller. Because here I'll pull up this tweet. And so this is back from, again back to 2020. So this was, if you see here, December 17, 2020, you know, waiting for the new headline, bitcoin crashes from 101,000 to 85,000. And basically that just happened this week. And so he, quote, tweeted his, his tweet from, you know, four years ago and said, waiting for the new headline, Bitcoin crashes from a million to, you know, 985,000. So well, if, if the last prediction came true, hopefully his new one does too in due course time as, as we all hope that, you know, bitcoin could hit a million one day. That would be unbelievable. But a lot of people said that about a hundred thousand. Right. So you know what, what's stopping it now other than, I guess, this, this loss in momentum.
Brendan
Yeah. Well, hopefully next time we can get the inverse tweet and we can have things pumping up and he can predict us a 200,000, a $1,000,000, $10,000 Bitcoin. And we need some of those, we need some of those upside predictions and hopefully we'll have those coming our way.
TiVo
Yeah. And then I saw in your notes a bunch of new ETF applications. We can run through them real quick. Let's see. Franklin Templeton with a bitcoin ether index grayscale applies for a polka dot etc etf. I think joining Dogecoin and XRP filings. Is that the first time we've heard a polka dot etf? I think so. And then yeah, along with the, you know, all the SEC stuff with Coinbase and Robinhood and whatnot. So there's always good news to kind of find right now which again is, is something that we're really passionate about and, and believe in the long term future of, of this space. Yeah. Just sometimes, you know, if you zoom out and you're looking at the gains, whether it's in bitcoin or a lot of these momentum stocks, it just, it felt a little frothy with the meme coin stuff that Brendan covered at the jump. And then yeah, you got the, you know, the Bybit hacks. So it's, it's just a slosh and you throw in, it's like a bad, it's like a bad crock pot recipe when you throw in tariffs and you know, doge and all, all the political unrest with, you know, a lot of stuff going on. So the market's digesting. I think that, you know, I think it's a great time to. Again, never personal financial advice for anybody. But you know, I think a lot of people were upset maybe when bitcoin went on that wild run, you know, and blew through the 90s into, you know, the mid-00s and was like, damn it, I, I could have got it at 88, 90. What was that? Last chance to get it under a hundred. So if you were one of those people again, maybe, maybe this isn't the right time for you and it's not personal financial advice. But just try to remember your feelings. Keep a journal or write some notes down of how you feel during certain price movements on the up and the downswings. So you can go visit that. If you're somebody that was upset that you didn't get enough Bitcoin under 100k, here's an opportunity for you. But also realize that it's not just bitcoin. There's a whole market dynamic with this new administration. And you know, again, we've been very positive on the administration, I think, going into the election. But hey, this isn't a political show. We're not trying to feed you that. We're trying to feed you the news. And you could easily make an argument that, you know, all this unrest is not good for markets and you know, whether it's the tariffs or doge. So, you know, the Trump pump giveth the Trump, you know, dipom taketh away. So, so I, I think, you know, from a political spectrum, you got to take it both sides as well.
Brendan
Yeah, I couldn't agree more with you, man. There's certainly a lot going on and we love keeping everyone in the loop. But that's going to go ahead and wrap us up for this week's episode we hope all of you enjoyed if you did hit that like button, hit that subscribe button. We got a lot of great content coming your way for the rest of this year. We got all sorts of tutorials, podcasts and everything else that's going to be keeping you up to date with what's happening in the industry. So again, hit that like button, hit that subscribe button and we'll see all of you at the same time as same place next week.
TiVo
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C
Stay warm and save every day. All in the Fred Meyer app. Get select Post cereal or Kroger peanut butter for 149 each with the digital coupon and we've lowered prices, save 15% or more on hundreds of items like Thomas mini bagels, Campbell's Spaghettios and more. Shop these deals at your local Kroger today or click the screen now to download the Fred Meyer app to save big today. Fred Meyer Fresh for everyone. Prices and product availability subject to change restrictions apply. See site for details.
Podcast Summary: CRYPTO 101 - "Crypto Rundown: The Crypto Crash...What is Causing This & How To Navigate Volatile Price Action"
Hosts: Bryce Paul & Brendan Viehman
Release Date: February 26, 2025
Brendan Viehman opens the episode by addressing the significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the widespread pullback across major assets. He highlights Bitcoin's struggle to maintain its $90,000 support level, marking the first breach since November. This downward trend has had a ripple effect on altcoins, with Solana (SOL) being notably impacted.
Brendan (00:08): "Bitcoin is breaking $90,000 for the first time really since November... We're starting to see this very, very crucial support level crack on bitcoin as it goes all the way back down towards $85,000."
Brendan delves into Bitcoin's technicals, observing the breakdown below the $90,000 support and its implications. He discusses the challenges posed by the 15-20 day moving averages and the potential for the $90,000 level to transform from support to resistance, which could signal further declines.
Brendan (04:53): "Bitcoin is closing below 90k for the first time since the middle of November. So this is the lowest point that we've been in the last several months for bitcoin."
Despite the current bearish outlook, Brendan maintains optimism about a potential V-shaped recovery, drawing parallels to previous market cycles where Bitcoin faced similar downturns before rebounding to new highs.
The hosts shift focus to altcoins, noting that while the overall market is bearish, certain altcoins exhibit resilience. Solana faces significant retracements, but exceptions like Maker (MKR) and WIN showcase substantial gains, indicating selective strength within the altcoin market.
Brendan (07:30): "Maker is crushing it over here, going up over 100%. Another big one that I have seen. WIN has been a mantra, hitting a new all-time high on Sunday."
This selective performance underscores the importance of discerning quality projects amid market turbulence.
A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the multifaceted catalysts contributing to the current market dip. The hosts identify a "collection of different catalysts" rather than a single event driving the downturn. Key factors include:
Solana Ecosystem Issues: Increasing rug pulls and hacks, notably the Libra incident and the unprecedented Bybit hack.
Brendan (15:39): "Libra was a devastating one for investors, over $100 million taken away from them, rug pulled out there."
Regulatory and Traditional Financial (TradFi) Risks: Ongoing tariff concerns and increased traditional market volatility affecting investor sentiment.
TiVo (12:36): "Tariffs, Donald Trump saying that tariffs are on schedule... that could affect inflation and job numbers."
Retail Investor Sentiment: A staggering sell-off by retail traders, with records set for sell volumes reminiscent of the early pandemic period.
TiVo (20:16): "Retail traders sell 1.1 billion in first two hours on Monday... the highest sell ratio since March 2020."
Meme Coins and Market Manipulation: Persistent FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) surrounding meme coins like Dogecoin and various rug pulls destabilizing market confidence.
TiVo highlights a concerning trend where retail investors are rapidly exiting the market amidst fear and uncertainty. The Fear & Greed Index, dipping to extreme fear levels (21), indicates a highly anxious market state, historically a potential buying opportunity.
TiVo (22:43): "Extreme fear at 21... this is one of the lowest levels that we've seen in a really long time."
Brendan concurs, suggesting that such levels of fear might be ripe for accumulation, drawing parallels to previous market dips that preceded recoveries.
Amidst the negative catalysts, the hosts explore encouraging regulatory developments. The SEC's decision to dial back on certain cryptocurrency cases involving major players like Coinbase and Uniswap signals a potential easing of regulatory pressures.
Brendan (25:02): "The SEC is dropping a lot of these cases... moving into a lot of the good things is that the SEC is really starting to dial back on a lot of these cryptocurrency related cases."
Additionally, the introduction of new cryptocurrency ETFs from institutions like Franklin Templeton and Grayscale, along with positive movements from platforms like Robinhood, suggest increasing institutional interest and legitimacy in the crypto space.
Despite the current downturn, both hosts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies. They emphasize the cyclical nature of the market, where downturns often set the stage for future rallies. Brendan predicts that the ongoing dip might be one of the final capitulation phases before a substantial recovery.
Brendan (07:30): "I really do believe that this move down here is going to be one of the final kind of capitulation moments... then we can have a really nice recovery."
Brendan also references CZ (Changpeng Zhao)'s optimistic predictions for Bitcoin, underscoring the community's faith in Bitcoin's eventual ascent to new heights.
Brendan (27:13): "CZ had some pretty bold predictions... waiting for CZ's new predictions as we all hope that Bitcoin could hit a million one day."
Brendan and TiVo conclude the episode by advising listeners to remain informed and composed amidst market volatility. They recommend keeping detailed records of emotional responses to market movements to better navigate future fluctuations. The hosts reinforce the importance of maintaining a balanced perspective, recognizing both the challenges and opportunities within the current market landscape.
TiVo (28:30): "Keep a journal or write some notes down of how you feel during certain price movements... Here's an opportunity for you."
Notable Quotes:
Brendan (00:08): "Bitcoin is breaking $90,000 for the first time really since November... We're starting to see this very, very crucial support level crack on bitcoin as it goes all the way back down towards $85,000."
TiVo (20:16): "Retail traders sell 1.1 billion in first two hours on Monday... the highest sell ratio since March 2020."
Brendan (22:45): "When's the last time that we saw extreme fear too... Take it over, take it over."
TiVo (24:47): "21. Extreme fear."
Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's Support Breakdown: Bitcoin has breached the critical $90,000 support level, signaling potential further declines but also setting the stage for a possible recovery based on historical patterns.
Altcoin Dynamics: While major altcoins like Solana face significant drops, others like Maker and WIN demonstrate resilience, highlighting the importance of selective investment.
Multiple Downturn Catalysts: The current market dip is driven by a confluence of factors, including regulatory pressures, traditional market risks, meme coin volatility, and unprecedented hacks.
Retail Investor Exodus: A significant sell-off by retail investors, combined with extreme fear indicators, suggests heightened market anxiety but may also present buying opportunities.
Regulatory Easing: Recent SEC actions indicate a possible easing of regulatory pressures, potentially fostering a more favorable environment for crypto growth.
Optimistic Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term challenges, the hosts maintain a bullish perspective on the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the cyclical nature of the market.
Final Remarks:
Bryce Paul and Brendan Viehman provide a comprehensive analysis of the current cryptocurrency market downturn, dissecting the intricate web of factors contributing to the crash. Their balanced approach, acknowledging both the challenges and opportunities, offers listeners valuable insights to navigate the volatile crypto landscape. As always, the hosts advocate for informed decision-making and strategic planning to capitalize on future market movements.