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Are you curious about the economic forces shaping your daily life? The Planet Money podcast from NPR makes sense of the economy in ways you'll actually understand and enjoy. Guys, you love listening to the rundowns. I get some of that information from this NPR Planet Money podcast. Especially recently with the war going on, the straight of Hormuz, you're just kind of getting those updates as they come from these guys. They put out a ton of awesome content. It's a different perspective from crypto101, but still a great listen. So go over there and check out the Planet Money podcast. If stuff like current events and the finance world interest you, each story on Planet Money starts with a question. Recent episodes ask why Pokemon cards are growing faster than your retirement count. Questions about the war. Just like we talked about recently a lot on our program. From the job market to the stock market to prices at the supermarket, Planet Money explains it all. Planet Money is a different kind of world where the complex economy somehow makes sense. Where human stories supersede abstract theories so you can learn, laugh and be entertained. It's econ, but just down to earth. The hosts go to unusual lengths to explain the economy. They've published their own book to track the global supply chain. They've shot a satellite into space to understand the economics of the private space industry. They've gone inside a live book auction to show how ideas get to market. It's the kind of show where you learn something, probably laugh and walk away seeing the world a little differently. And I think if you like crypto 101, you'll enjoy planet Money. So maybe check that out. Follow NPR's Planet Money podcast and understand how money shapes the world. I'll be honest, once it gets hot out, I'm not trying to overthink outfits. I want something that's comfortable, breathable, and still looks like I tried a little bit. That's where Quince is coming for me. And I absolutely love their 100% linen drawstring pants with the matching short sleeve button down that I just got from Quince. Guys, it's exactly the kind of thing I want in the summer. Super easy to throw on. Doesn't feel stiff, it doesn't feel heavy, it's breathable and it looks clean without being too dressed up. It's basically vacation energy without looking like you packed in five minutes. And you can have that vacation energy all summer long at home as well. Quinta's high quality essentials without the luxury markup. We're talking linens, organic cotton teas, lightweight sweaters all the stuff that you actually wear. Their European linen pants and shirts are a great warm weather upgrade. And the price is right. They're starting at just $34 and pricing is a big part of it. Everything at quince is 50 to 80% less than similar brands because they work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middleman. So you're paying for quality, not just the logo. And they go way beyond clothing. You've heard me talk about how much I love the Quints website. They have betting content, cookware, sofas. It's one of those sites where you go for one thing and end up staying for many more. Elevate your summer wardrobe. Go to quince.com crypto101 for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Q U I n c e.com crypto101 for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quints.com crypto101. All right, everybody, welcome back to a special edition of Friday Rundown, the one you've all been waiting for. As you can see, the charts are already on the screen and that's because we have two of our chart masters with you. A double dose on Friday. We have Brendan, we have Hunter. Guys, welcome to the show. We're going to start off with Brendan first because we're going to cover everything from the charts. What we're seeing in the price action. We have to cover what's going on with Michael, Sailor, Microstrategy and Stretch. And then we did, we found some good fundamental news that we want to share with everybody. Too early around altcoins. There's some stuff going on with the top 15 most profitable altcoins. We found that we want to bring it to you. And then just a normal fun Friday rundown. A lot to talk about. But as you saw in the thumbnail, we're breaking down the charts first. So Brendan, take it away.
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Yeah, TiVo, it's been quite the week over here so far, man. Bitcoin coming to new cycle lows of just around $58,000 flat. This puts us lower than what we saw about a month ago at the start of June and it puts us lower than we were back in February during that kind of crash and pullback. So. Well, what does this mean? It means a couple of different things. This is what that move looks like on the one day time frame. I'm going to zoom us out. You can kind of see the initial breakdown from that last bear flag and the 200 day moving average and a couple of those other levels that we talk about a lot on the rundowns. The breakdown happened here. Here's that low, slight rise up into the 20 day moving average. One of the things, I think we talked about this on the last rundown, but I was like, man, this is starting to look like a bear flag again. I know we've been talking about this in the community, but I didn't like it. It looked like another rising channel. The rejections of the 20 day moving average, another rejection. And one of the things I really didn't like with this was last weekend's price action where we were able to move higher, come all the way back down with this wick close beneath the weekend highs and then kind of see these selling candles continue. And we've seen it just kind of continue from that point on. Since last weekend, you have kind of the Monday start, the Tuesday, the Wednesday, the Thursday now the Friday. And last night we hit that low of right around $58,000, putting us about $1,000 beneath our, our high from about a month ago and about $2,000 beneath our high from early February over in here. So this brings us to a pretty pivotal level. I mean, you're seeing everything across the board kind of fall, and it puts us in a weird spot. And I think that this has been probably one of the more confusing times because what you see here is you see the stock market falling this week. You see obviously the crypto market falling this week. You see energy prices like oil falling this week, and you see metals also falling this week. And this is a really rare situation. You usually don't have metals, energy, crypto and stocks all crashing collectively together for about a week straight. It's rare. Some of these, you know, multiple weeks in a row. It's really weird, odd and rare activity. For a while you had oil moving higher and then maybe risk assets would move lower or vice versa. Typically, you know, in the past, people like to look at metals as maybe a little bit of a hedge. They become a little bit more risk gone. I mean, you just have everything here moving in a pretty odd manner that I think the average person is probably finding confusing. So again, I'll repeat that. You have stocks, crypto, metals and energy all kind of moving to the downside here. And so it's like, okay, where do I look then? Because I know here in the crypto space we see this happening on bitcoin, we see the new lows come in, or like, oh, you know, why is bitcoin kind of doing this. And it's true, you know, bitcoin has been underperforming but you know, in the last week or so there was really almost, I don't, I don't want to say no safe haven, but almost no safe haven if like the four major asset classes were all collectively kind of heading down together. So it puts us in between a rock and a hard place for sure. You have eth kind of moving back into the lows as well. 1500. You have Solana here not quite going to new lows but you know, selling off and seeing a really big rally here today. So at least you're getting a little bit of optimism and over performance out of Solana xrp. Definitely an underperformer here as it's going into new cycle lows and it actually came to the $1 area for the first time since man, the end of 2024. So about a year and a half. You've seen a couple of other, you know, big kind of performers here. I know Hyper Liquid has been a big one that we like to talk about. I'm a big fan of this one. I know Hunter is, we talk about it, you know, quite a bit. But seeing a huge bounce off yesterday's low, bounce from low to high of day of around 11 and a half percent. And even now you can see it trying to make a push to the upside off this 50 day moving average. So what are the charts telling us here before we move on? Because there's a lot of fundamental things to talk about. Well, I think the chart that the charts here, they put us in a tough spot. You know, am I very long term optimistic? Yes. You know, that hasn't changed. So when I say what I'm about to kind of talk about, I want that to kind of be the center point which is that, you know, I'm not talking a year out, two years out. I'm still very much, you know, wanting to buy the dip with that time frame in mind. What I'm not going to say is, hey, maybe the next day, the next week, the next month, little bit more uncertain here. You know, what you get is a test of the lows. A lower swing high and a big rejection. Back to the lows, lower high, back to the lows again. It really does look as if pressure is building towards the downside and maybe what that could mean is that we might need to move lower now. Is it a guarantee? No, you know, obviously not. There's no guarantees in this stuff. But when I see kind of A push to the lows. A massive lower high push to the lows. Another lower high, back to the lows push. It's clear, like, the sellers are really kind of in control of this market. And every little attempt that the bulls have to go back to the upside, they're just getting immediately smacked by the sellers and the bears, and it's pushing us back down. So not a great look in the shorter term again, we'll see what happens. Maybe we touch this for the. For the third time and we bounce. But when I see this kind of behavior on a chart, I'm thinking, hey, I want to be buckled up at least for the idea that, hey, we could see a little bit more downside here. I think it's something that's on the table. And I'm not saying. I had someone text me this morning. He's like, dude, you think we're heading to 20k next? I'm like, where do people get these numbers from? I had someone tell me 10k. I had someone tell me, sub 10k, I'm getting 20k. And I think they just pull these numbers off of, like, X or social media or, you know, out of their rear end. But my answer there is no. Like, when I say we could head lower, my thought is, hey, we could go into the 50s if you get a really big flush, maybe the high 40s. But I'm thinking probably somewhere in the 50s, and then maybe we see what happens if we do even get it. I think these talks of like 10, 20, 25K. I think they're a little bit blown out of proportion and the bears are getting ahead of themselves. So, you know, I'm keeping an eye on this over here. You have seen some, again, some more oversold ones like Solana, like Aave, like, you know, Hyper Liquid in Venice. Some of these things bouncing pretty well here. Back to the upside off of some of these recent lows, and this is one that I don't talk about a lot, but stable over here has been just maintaining a beautiful uptrend. So I show all of these to. To show everyone that there is pockets of hope out there. The charts right here. Again, not looking. Not looking horrible. Not looking great. I'd say they're leaning a little bit to. Towards the side of. Of making me want to just kind of sit on my hands. That's the way that I'm looking at playing this. But I want to be a buyer of the dip. Should we go lower than here? I'm just making sure that, hey, I'm not Fully levered up on this stage of the market. I'm not fully diversified in the altcoins here. You know, I have less altcoin exposure and I have dry powder on the sidelines because if, keyword, there's, if we go lower, then I really do want to be buying the dip. I think, you know, we're going to be at a great buy the dip area and we'll show a screenshot to kind of to, to orchestrate this later and visualize it for all of you. But that's kind of my thought sitting on my hands. I want to have dry powder. Should we go lower? I want to be buying the dip. I will be buying the dip. But right now I'm a little bit more conservative with, with how I'm looking at this market. And that's kind of my approach here. TiVo and Hunter.
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Awesome. Hunter. So having Hunter here is kind of my thought is getting two different perspectives. So obviously crypto 101 and all of us together jointly, we're long term bulls. But inside this type of volatility and type of market, it's always good to get different opinions. And I say this on the show all the time is like, that's what I love having. You know, Brendan, we've got Hunter, we've got Bryce, if you're tuning into the Summits, you know, Rohit and we've got obviously Brian and Joe come on the show all the time. So this is one of those episodes where I'm sourcing, you know, multiple thoughts, multiple big brains here. So Hunter, Hunter's a technical analysis guru himself. So let's have him pull up the charts, give you some thoughts and then we will. Any questions in the chat? Happy to take, take those. And then we have a pretty big rundown sheet. So Hunter, you know, take it, you know, a little five minute breakdown or whatever you got for us and then we can discuss and hit the sheet. You know what slows teams down more than anything? It's not always headcount, budget or even the tools themselves. It's when the way work gets done lives in someone's head and never actually gets documented. Then someone new joins a new platform, gets rolled out or a teammate leaves and suddenly everyone's doing the same process in a different way. That's exactly the problem today's sponsor, Scribe, was built to solve. Scribe is a workflow AI platform that captures any workflow in real time and turns it into a step by step documentation. Automatically you just turn on the extension, do the process like you normally would. And Scribe builds the guide as you go, capturing every click, step and screenshot, and it's already trusted by over 80,000 enterprises, including nearly half of the Fortune 500. 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C
Thanks for that guys and wonderful analysis, Brendan, as always. And you know, Brendan and I actually have a pretty similar viewpoint here. Uh, we've been both identifying this as a possible another low to sweep below 60,000 and the 58,000 level being really, really, really important. And I'll show you just some reasons why really we're looking for this whole cycle really began from 2022, the $15,000 low. So looking from that low all the way up to our October 2025 high, we can see all of this price action and kind of all the volume levels. And if you've watched our volume profile video on YouTube, then this will be very, very familiar with you about this analysis that I'M about to kind of employ. So right now you'll notice that really when we decided to make new lows to come back to 60k is when we got back below this 73,000 level. Now why is that important? Well, because this whole range, volume profile wise, looking at this histogram right here, we have this massive node of consolidation where a lot of this volume transacted back at the end of 2024. So when we came back into this range, we were really going to watch what these volume levels were doing, if they were going to be supportive or resistant of price. Well, unfortunately you can see that that breakdown, this is a weekly chart happened, you know, the beginning of the month right down below the value area, high around 72 to 73K, which happens to be a very important level. That's going to be close to some anchor V WAPS and some other levels. But nonetheless, this brought us back into this whole range. And so we've seen as we've gone below, we've come back below this massive level of volume and our low down here is actually at the other, other end of that shelf. So you'll notice recently in the more near term, if I just take a line and I look at this kind of node right here, you'll see that. I'm sorry, up here you'll see that our recent when we took the low came back down to about 59,000. We had a short term rally for about two weeks up into 67 to 68,000. We retested this node and it was a bit of a bearish retest. Now of course I'm long term bullish, but this is a bit of a, you know, signifier that we would come a little bit lower and maybe try to seek value to like, you know, mid-50s or high-50s is where we're at right now. Because we did get that rejection, we wanted to see a reclaim of this level to continue structure back to the upside. Unfortunately, we didn't get that. So now what are we looking at? Well, we've touched the 200 weekly moving average. We haven't closed below it yet. So that's important because once we do close below it, that opens up maybe a little bit of a deeper pullback. Nonetheless, we have our linear trend line, this white dotted line coming up right here, coalescing with another level that I like to look at all the time, which is part of the Fibonacci retracement is the 0.618, the golden ratio. You'll hear about it all the Time. Well, where is that level? That's at 57, 800, let's call it 58 even. As well as the long term anchored volume weight average price from the $15,000 cycle low right here at 58K. So a lot of levels coalescing at once. And then also if I just look at the rsi, you'll notice on the weekly here we have been trying to create a divergence. Now we were hoping we would maybe get it on this last low when we first flushed below 60k, but we didn't. So now we're actually kind of trying to reconnect and create this divergence with a little bit more price action going forward. So on the high time frame there at least calling it the weekly, we are seeing momentum to the downside definitely dwindle and hopefully this divergence will be the one that plays out for at least a move back up to the higher end of this range. Now nothing is really confirmed until we reclaim the 67, 68 level. As you can tell, that's a massive area of resistance and support, unfortunately being resistance at the moment. Now if I just zoom in a bit on the daily, you'll notice something actually kind of interesting. So psychologically price likes to go to hold numbers. Well, this is the coinbase pair and you'll notice and this is one reason why I didn't think the low was in originally when we were making this bear flag is the bottom was $60,001. So it's pretty much exactly on there. But where is our low right now? Exactly 58,000. So it gives me a little bit of hesitation if this is going to be the low. But right here it is showing signs that this could be possibly a short term bottom to maybe move back up higher. And we will be monitoring that to see kind of how the week closes. The weekly candle on Sunday of course for spot and then today actually in a few hours we'll get bitcoin futures. So PTC1 exclamation point. We'll see if that actually decides to close back above 60k because that would be a short term signal that we might get a little bit of a weakened rally as we do see things turn green across the board on my watch list at least. But nonetheless we are also creating that daily divergence on the daily. So if we were to make a little low right here, this could be a nice swing low signature. Now it won't really be confirmed until we get at least back above this 63, 500 level, which is, you know, these prior Lows right here. That would be our first kind of area of reclamation that we'd want. And then of course another move above this last rejection in which if we do start to get structure like this, well, this could bode well for at least a July, you know, movement upwards. But for now, pressure remains to the downside. Funding rates are still a little bit positive, which means the longs can still kind of get flushed out. We do still have levels below us here in the 56, 57 level area that could get hit. But right now price is definitely forming a possible nice swing or swing low formation here. So the daily does move back up about, you know, above 60k for the week. Then I could see this as a short term rally opportunity. As you can tell, we have a bunch of confluence here. But once again there are pockets of brightness and they happen to be revolved around a lot of the decentralized exchanges. As Brendan mentioned, hyper liquid. Well, another one is lit or lighter is actually one that we've written about in the coin of the week for the Crypt Nation fan out there and it is nicely getting a move up of about 12% today. So in tandem with the hyper liquid, the decentralized exchange perp Dex narrative, one reason we like these kind of fundamentally is that even in moments of speculation, when it's either up or down, so we're in like a down market, these platforms are still garnering revenue, they're still accruing revenue. And this goes back to the token holders because they make money off trading fees. So. And a lot of times higher trading volume can happen when there's more volatility, which happens to be when there is downside. So we're seeing lighter showing relative strength. In a market where Bitcoin's going like this, we're looking for kind of stuff that's going like this. Higher high, higher low. Higher high, higher low, higher high. Dare I say higher low right here. And here we go for some continuation. So really like lighter here for continuation. If we get a move back above the highs, I want to see this, you know, value or high and this point of control from inception. So this range from 160 to 170 right here to hold. So maybe even a retest of it. Either way, this looks like it's trying to break out back again to our upper targets where there's really no resistance until this 0.382 Fibonacci retracement which happens to be in this node. And then above that there's a very minimal volume until we get up to the 0.5, which is back into this shelf. So this is one that has a good asymmetric return profile to the upside, one that we've been watching. So pockets of gold and kind of a sea of darkness here. But nonetheless the tides are turning, they are shifting in many ways. And even for us, you know, here at the team, you guys heard me talk about it fundamentally. But what I was saying here is that we're making higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, trying to break back out of the valley high and the point of control, which is this range from 160 to 170 with not a lot of volume until this 0.382 retracement from the high all time high to the low into this node. So around 216 is the next price we're looking at. And we've written about this also in the newsletter as the targets and then the next major target here up at like 260. So this one is offering asymmetric upside potential. Looking for a lot of things really what I'm looking for here is just market structure, trend to the upside when bitcoin's going like this. And it doesn't have to be much more difficult than that, just following the trend. But we're getting a great breakout today, up 12.3% right now. So that's, that's the two things I'm kind of looking at here, guys. I'll kick it back to y'.
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A
All. Yeah, great breakdown. I'm actually going to jump around on the sheet, fellas here. So let's, let's find those pockets of positivity that you guys were talking about because again, you guys bring your expertise, I bring what I'm seeing. And they, they kind of converged in their own fun way. So what I'm going to pull up here is the grayscales top 15 revenue producing cryptos. And so what can you see here? Hyper liquid at the top. You go down. I'm going to talk about AAVE in a second. You've been in the community, you've seen us talk about sky, you've seen us talk about aerodrome, you've seen just went over lighter. It was a coin of the week recently, Hunter said. So here's what's really interesting about this. Number one, if you're somebody who is a part of the community, you've been or listen to the show, we've talked about a lot of these. But again, to get that first info kind of those first Calls those coins of the week, those deep dive write ups of understanding why we're talking about this stuff. Six, you know, six, eight, eight weeks, months plus before you're going to see these type of tweets that's inside the community. And if you like the technical analysis session, we've got a plethora of links to get more involved. So check down in the description below. We've got dollar trials if you want to try out the newsletter to get the coin of the week. And obviously we have some trading stuff. So Brendan's cohort is open this week so I put a link down there for that if you're interested in next week, next week. So net. Well, so basically we always put the information link but this time you can just go down, sign up. If it's something that you're interested in, sign up and you're going to be included in the one that starts a week from Monday. Sorry. Thank you, Brendan. And then I know just, you know we have a lot of dollar trials there. Momentum money makers if you want to try Crypt Nation. So check those out to get more involved, now's the time to stay educated more than ever. But I thought it was really interesting to hear you say later. I was like, all right, we just got to jump to this. So that's what I think. A lot of these things that are doing good, they have real revenue. So you can kind of see the revenue multiples. 37 kind of sticks out for uni swap. That's pretty damn high. Hyper liquid at 15, that's kind of maybe 15. 17 is a, you know, normal tech stock range, might be what 18, 20 sometimes on the higher end up in the 30s. And then it's interesting to see those revenue multiples so low on some of those. So but I think it's, it's a sentiment of that's where the money's flowing is, is you got to have some backing of some revenue and you got to bring some value to the market. And as the guy said earlier, you know, the volatility is opportunity for these type of projects. And I, I, I saw a lot of stuff on Ave guys this week. Standard Charter was coming out, said a could 50x to 3500 by 2030 bullish take from Standard Charter. And then I just saw that and I brought it up just because I saw Kraken took a, took a 15% stake. And then Stani, who we've had on the podcast before, who's the lead over at aave, has been making some noise on the Timeline as well. So it's always interesting to kind of take in this information then when it cross pollinates perfectly. From what you guys were seeing on the charts, I thought it was worth, worth bringing up. So any, any thoughts on that? On the thesis of the revenue making projects versus, you know, maybe the ones that don't? I thought that was cool for all that to be tied in.
- [30:09]
B
You know, I just finished a really big write up with another analyst on the team, Rohit, about this exact topic and what we've seen in our own research and from a lot of the guests that we've actually talked to from the summits and the podcast and other things, is that there is an increasingly larger emphasis and focus on projects that are succeeding and making money. Those are two different things, right? Because you can do one and maybe it could mean the other. But I'm talking about when I say like success or that they are succeeding, I'm talking, you know, are they actually accomplishing their mission and are they expanding? Are they seeing more activity, are they seeing more users, Are they getting more clients? Some of the time that will also lead to them actually producing money. But I think you need one, the other or both. And that's been an increasingly bigger focus from investors and traders alike. And so I think it is important to look at this stuff. If you look at a lot of the projects that have run this year, a lot of them have had some source of decent revenue or decent success. Again, they're either expanding and becoming more active and more used, or they're making a lot of money. Just off the top of my head, you have Hyper Liquid, you've had near, you've had. I know, like Venice has actually been a really good example of that too. Sky Canton, the list goes on. There's a number of them out there alongside some of the ones on this list. But I think it really depends on the project. Some making money will be more important, others gaining activity and having usage will be more important. And I think a lot of the projects that have been around for a while and they're not seeing that, well, people are becoming frustrated and they're looking elsewhere. The caveat here, and I think a lot of people will miss this, is just because a project is making money and just because it might even be seeing activity. But I would especially say just because a project's making money and having good revenue does not necessarily mean that the token benefits from it. And that's been the issue for a lot of these older projects, is that they can make money. They can see revenue. There's a lot of money transacting behind the scenes, but the token holders don't benefit nearly at all from it. Sometimes not at all, just nothing. And so those projects I think people are looking at and saying, well, why would I own this? You know, at least if you're owning a stock, you are getting a fractional ownership of the company. Maybe you get a dividend, but you have ownership with these tokens. It's just not really the case. You have the tokens and maybe it's used for like a little bit of voting power. But if there's not some sort of revenue share or buyback or just something. Right. There's a million different ways to go about it. But if there is not something that incentivizes you to be a holder, then a lot of people I think are kind of starting to ditch those ones now. Not always, but I do think that that has been a more popular trend. So Teva, to answer your question, I, I think it's very important and you're seeing a bigger emphasis placed on this. And I just think that we continue to head and like, head in that direction.
- [33:19]
A
Yeah, it's, it's the maturity of the space, right. When you have the blackrocks and we've talked about Franklin crypto. I saw a friend, friend of the show yesterday, Chris, Chris Perkins was on cnbc. I pulled, I pulled that tweet out yesterday. So again, we had. This is the maturation of the space, right? We go from when I first started, Brendan, Remember we would have, we would have these guests on the podcast and they'd be like, oh, we're anon. We're not going to show our face. And it's like, okay, like you're. I have a good project, so we'll talk to you. But like I always thought that was, you know, a unique part of the space and understood it. But like that's not gonna fly. As you get into, you know, hundred of million dollars, trillion dollar market caps, that's not gonna fly. And then so a great example is like, I'm gonna doing my work the other day or yesterday in the afternoon, I was like, ah, friend of the show, Chris Perkins. We just had him on the podcast a couple weeks ago. And so, you know, if you're coming on crypto101, you want to talk about investing in crypto, you don't, you know, you're getting called on to CNBC that this is this maturation process. Blackrock, Franklin crypto, all the other big names that are Getting involved here, Morgan Stanley with the ETFs and all that. And an interesting transition here of thought is we talked about how bitcoin always led. It was like, okay, bitcoin's a leading instrument sometimes, right? It's like as it goes up, well, the stock market will follow. And then bitcoin kind of fell off, as we know. And it was like, oh, that correlation doesn't work because the stock market kept flying. But I just think it's really interesting if you really look underneath the hood because it's such an interesting time in the markets as it always is. But I don't know, this feels a little bit historical with this. Chips run, the AI run. That's just my opinion. But starting to look around like it felt like we were kind of alone in this downdraft a little bit, right? We're watching everybody else have fun. But you're starting to look around and everybody start. Not everybody, but there's some pockets that are truly starting to follow. South Korea, South Korea has been getting halted recently for some downdrafts. The metals, you mentioned it, Brennan. Gold down 29%. Silver down 52% from its high. I remember me and you did a live Brendan that Friday where it was like the end of silver as we knew it, a one day swing. It was like 20% down in one day. Again, these are precious metals which are supposed to be, you know, savings vehicles. The gold, the metals are falling down. And then, and then even I guess. Where's this one on the sheet? The Mag 7 is. I didn't save that tweet. There was a. Something with the Mag 7. It was, you know, I think Google itself is down 18% this month. I'm seeing Meta down 20 plus percent. Amazon, all these kind of Microsoft, you know, the Mag 7 are down. And then obviously we know. I'm going to hand this off to you because I want to find that graphic. I'm going to try and find that graphic. But what do you guys do you agree with that? It's like, hey, it's interesting how bitcoin fell out of bed. And now minus the chip trade, which again remains to be seen where it is today, but everything's starting to kind of trend a little bit lower.
- [36:18]
B
Yeah, yeah, it is. I mean you mentioned South Korea. South Korea halted. They're. They're basically their version of the S P or their version of their indice. It halted twice this week. TiVo. That means it needs to fall at least 8% to halt and it halted twice, which is crazy.
- [36:38]
A
Here it is. The decline from all time highs continue Brendan, but you can speak to that. I got the stats there for you.
- [36:43]
B
Yeah, yeah, no, I mean this one's great too, but yeah, I mean South Korea's tech sector, which is driven largely by Samsung and SK Hynix, two big tech plays, their market halting, down 8%. Could you imagine the S&P 500 going down 8%? I mean it would be panic. We had one drop that was almost like that not too long ago, but that's bad. Having it happen twice in a week would be crazy. Granted it's a little bit different over there, but. And it's going to be a little bit more volatile and it has been extremely volatile. But yeah, there's fears coming up to the surface here, all over the place and it's not just crypto.
- [37:22]
A
Yeah. And then the final graph I had teed up was like, will this continue? So you can see kind of the semiconductor ETF compared to the MAG7 there. There's been crazy outperformance and definitely again this is why you probably not personal financial advice, but you want to be diversified, you want to take some different sectors. But the outperformance here is crazy. And so the question is, does this continue? So what happens here? And again, this is more of just a theory of mine. It's like okay, your hyperscalers, your Microsoft, your Amazon, your metas are just pouring capex. Capex is investment. You're just pouring money into this. And now they're starting to get penalized. So they're saying, you know the stock market saying hey, you're spending all this money and your free cash flow is coming down, but the semiconductor and the chips ETF are flying because you're spending all this money. So, so where, where does meet either Amazon, you know, Apple, Apple just announced they're raising iPhone prices and Mac prices because the chip shortage. So if all these companies are investing into AI, when does the results come? Because if the results don't come, I think what you're going to see again in theory in the next six months, year, you're going to start to see that Capex valve get a little tighter. And when that Capex valve gets a little tighter, that semiconductor ETF is going to start to come back down. So either you're going to see Mag7 kind of raise the bar and follow what the semiconductors are, you're going to see the semiconductors come in. I don't know which way it's going to go, but I feel like that's kind of where the market is and makes sense for if you bring it, circle it back to crypto for bitcoin it's like well, what's the catalyst here of understanding what the next market moves are for liquidity? It feels like maybe there's some chop coming down and we got to see how this gets played out. Hunter, your thoughts?
- [38:58]
C
Yeah, that's a great point. And here's the issue too. With all these firms that are increasing their capex, well how do they get the money to, to do the capex? They gotta raise debt. We've got rates that are going up on every tenor of the curve. So they're gonna start having to issue that at higher interest expense down the road. So I think that will constrict liquidity a bit. Now I see this more as a broad de risking with an AI tilt. The way I look at that is that we've had outperformance in AI memory like the SOX. This iShare Semiconductor ETF relative to Bitcoin. But you're also seeing retail money market funds and cash vehicles actually increase as well while that's happening. So what that means is that there's not a huge rotation necessarily. There's a bit of a broad de risking as but with an AI tilt is the way I look at it. So yeah, a little bit of liquidity constriction based on now with rates going up, that's never been too well for bitcoin which is a very liquidy constrained vehicle. So I think down the road that's what we're going to kind of see is there is going to be a bit of a chop but we're going to see a rotation. I was actually looking at a chart earlier that relationship of bitcoin to the AI memory stocks and it's at like multi, multi multi year lows at extremely oversold levels at places where there would be a turn. So I do think a shift is upon us going through to the like the end of the year, at least to the last quarter.
- [40:20]
A
That's great point. Brendan, any final thoughts on this topic before I transition us on?
- [40:25]
B
No, nothing else. I think we hit on it.
- [40:28]
A
Great. I want to give a shout out to the chat. We got some people from New Hampshire. Live free or die in New Hampshire. Had some great times in Newfound Lake with the family. Up in New Hampshire we've got Liverpool. Shout out to Liverpool. We're across the pond today boys. They're dealing with a heat wave. The parts of Europe getting some historical heat. So have a glass of water. A lot of those people, they don't like AC over there. So I don't know. I don't know if me and Brendan could survive over in Europe. We appreciate everybody joining in from around the world. Let us know where you're from, give this video a like and if you're new, subscribe. It really helps us grow the channel and as always, check out the links below if you want to get more involved with the community. I cashed out my entire 401k thinking someone stole my identity.
- [41:10]
B
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- [42:36]
A
Fellas, I'm going to start with a clip here. Just see up our next segment. Let's take a listen. Right?
- [42:41]
B
I mean that's the engineering, I give
- [42:43]
C
you the upside, you have no downside and I pay you a dividend while
- [42:46]
B
you wait to get rich.
- [42:48]
C
Okay, which is.
- [42:56]
A
I give you the upside, you have no downside and I pay you a dividend as you wait to get rich. These are the type of corporations quotes fellas that are leading us to a law firm potentially launching a probe into strategy for potential securities violation. There is a law firm that seems to be preparing possibly a class action lawsuit against Michael Sailor. The microstrategy saga goes on. That's going to be our next topic to toss it around and break down. So there's whispers of this lawsuit and I guess for in the sense of securities they're pulling his marketing and his quotes. You know like that saying hey you guaranteed you wait, you have no downside. You know that's something that again we're not financial advisors. We can't give personal financial advice. But, you know, I don't think any fiduciary would ever say, hey, you have no downside, unless it's, I guess, a traditional bond that's backed by the government. About as close as you can get to saying that. So there's a lot of different clips. I know there was also a famous Sailor AI video that was like, you know, some AI person in the pool. Oh, I retired. I just did Stretch. So there's a lot to break down here. There's a lot going on on the timeline. It is very negative towards Michael Sailor. It is very negative towards Micro Strategy and Stretch and. And maybe rightfully so, because right now it's down 28% from its $100 peg. We're talking about Stretch, which is the preferred stock dividend play. So, Brendan, let me pass it off to you first. Get your thoughts, tee it up. Happy to pull up other information or tweets, but we want to kick this one around because the temperatures heated up. We've been monitoring it, but the temperature is heating up. On sale right now.
- [44:38]
B
Yeah, I mean, we'll let it be known to you. This is the third time that we're talking about it. I have been a skeptic. Call me a hater. Call me skeptic. Right. It's not of Michael Saylor necessarily, or it's not of strategy. Like, I've really always liked Michael Saylor. Always like strategy. What I don't like is some of his recent change in stances, if that makes sense. I don't like how he's kind of shifted away from his original mission. Right. This idea that he was going to accumulate, I think the idea of accumulating Bitcoin at opportunistic prices and holding it for the long term and using that as a strategy, very much in favor of that. I think what he's done here and what I've been a skeptic of is trying to get over positioned, over levered, trying to get too much market share and just, you know, overall, just getting a little bit too ambitious with this. Right. I think when he was launching these other products, I was kind of like, whatever. Like, I don't really care. It is what it is. Right. They're a business. At the end of the day, what I really didn't like was strc, because as I've explained, it doesn't make sense, and I don't think it works based on. Off of any model that we've ever seen before. Which I guess doesn't mean that it can't work. I just think it makes it a lot less likely because how are they paying dividends? Well, they're not produced, they're not paying their dividends based off of the cash that they're making through the business model. They're pretty much unable to do that, or they can't do that, or at least they won't do that in the very least. So how are they paying these dividends? Well, they're paying these dividends by selling off bitcoin. But their whole business model has always been buy bitcoin, never sell, hold it for the long term. Why would you sell if you know it has this 30% year over year return that they always boast about. Now again, there's some nuance in there. And he says, oh well, we're doing this product so that we can raise more money to buy more bitcoin, because we're going to borrow it like 11% and then our 30% annual return rate that we're expecting will make up the difference, plus the sales and yada yada. The issue becomes what if that doesn't happen and what if you, you get in at a bad time? Like they were buying a lot of bitcoin at higher rates, towards the highs again, they were getting themselves over positioned, over leveraged. And I think that this is their way of trying to raise more capital and you know, we'll see. But I think what they've done here is damaged their reputation a little bit. I don't want to sound too pessimistic because as I'm, as I'm listening to myself, it sounds worse than it probably is. My, again, my concern here is my loyalty lies to the crypto space first. I want bitcoin to succeed. I want crypto to succeed. And my fear is that, and it's not an imminent threat, but my fear is that his maybe more volatile actions can have repercussions. That impacts me, it impacts bitcoin, it impacts crypto as a whole. And all that we had to do to avoid this kind of thing. And maybe it gets worse, maybe it gets better, but all we had to do to avoid this was not kind of get over leveraged and not do some of these things. Just be patient. Like if he would have followed the original goal and just bought bitcoin on the dips, you know, not have to sell bitcoin all of a sudden, like all these different things, then we wouldn't even be in this kind of situation. Now they're going to have to pay out what, almost $1 billion a year in dividends and growing. They said it was supposed to stay around 100 bucks. It's falling to all time lows as that happens. They lose trust, they lose, you know, kind of the respect that people had, a little bit of the loyalty as well because now all of a sudden they've sold Bitcoin and this thing that's supposed to be stable paying them a dividends is dropping. Well if it's dropping then they're supposed to at least raise the yield that people are earning. But I'm not sure that they're in a place to do that. So are they going to be paying out even more as it's falling? We'll see. But I think there's been a little bit of reputational damage here and again I don't think this is like a nuclear bomb in the near term or anything like that. And it might not ever really even come to anything like that again. My fear is that one man getting over ambitious and potentially over leveraged can, can harm the rest of us and can harm the rest of the space. We've seen it too many times before where you have someone do something stupid and everyone gets affected. Right. Terra Terra Luna, Alameda FTX, you know, BitConnect, probably a bad example but you've seen like a bunch of different times where you've had like these people that are in charge of larger groups tied to crypto and then they get, they do something maybe that harms everyone else. So that's my big fear here.
- [49:25]
A
Yeah, perfect, perfect concept there. Because a friend of the show wayward3000 just said in the comments sailors experiencing the classic main character downfall are common in crypto cycles. Which is exactly what you just said. I thought that was a great comment from Wayward3000. Hunter, anything to add on this? What's your take? We obviously newer to our team so we haven't, you know, rode the ups and downs with you before and covered the sailor stuff. So give us a take.
- [49:55]
C
Yeah, well I don't think this bodes well for the strategy stock at least. What people don't really remember is that buying preferred stock gives you a higher seniority on a claim on the assets under any insolvency. So you have your liens on the company, your preferred stock and then your equity. Well this is above the equity tranche. This is not going well. It's not trading like a bond for you to get an all in return that's net positive. Well this has to come up now over 60% to get back to peg when you're getting paid, you know, annualized yield of about 13%. Now that's juicy. But none of that matters if the principal is going down and you're not returning the same amount of principal. So I don't like this at all. I don't like the schematics of it all. I don't like the whirlwind, flywheel effect of it. I don't like that this is above the claims that normal equity holders get that it's actually down 20% in strategy itself. The stock isn't. Is down. I think that bodes as something very negative down the road for this strategy company overall. But to Brendan's point, I think a lot of it is run by, you know, the aura or the egregore or the memetic magic of Saylor. I would say that's very rampant in crypto. Let's just be real about that. And so I think, you know, as long as this preferred equity model continues to break down, I think we're going to see something of a regulation issue down the road regarding this. But long term, I don't think this will shake out all bitcoin investors. I think it'll be seen as like a bad actor in a good land, something on the case akin to, you know, stuff that happened with ftx. And I'm not saying the same thing, but we just had a bad actor, a flush out and you know, crypto goes on regardless. But no, I don't, I don't like this at all. I think this is type of stuff that you can't just brush off. It's does kind of signal things that behind the scenes they're breaking. And honestly that's what I take. But I think it's actually a good thing in a way because these type of scenarios play out towards macro cycle lows. So I'm finding that bodes well for the future at least.
- [52:07]
A
Great breakdown. Appreciate your thoughts. I'll say Bias, completely biased and egotistical of me, obviously. Over the years I've tried to get Michael Saylor on the show, whether tweets, dms. I had a great meme run when things were getting hot. We had some fun memes in his replies. He never came on. So now I'm like, well, you know, good for us. Because I think, I think part of it is always everybody wants to talk to the biggest, you know, crypto podcasts in the space that are obviously bigger than us, that don't have the community behind it and the business that we do, kind of having the educational community that we do, they're just content creators that have talked to him and I've covered. They. They just. They never really pushed him, like when he was rolling all this stuff out. And again, this is a Monday morning quarterback take. I have to say this because, you know, as somebody who's. Who's been at barstool, I always got to say, like, call it like it is. I would have loved to have Michael say on. I would have loved for him to retweet our videos, all that stuff, but he didn't come on. And so now I'm kind of watching and remembering how I watched all these interviews and was trying to take notes and like, you know, you go on all these shows and nobody really pressed him that much. He got pressed on live TV a fair amount. But those hits are so. They're so quick, right? They're like three minute hits, five minutes tops. How much can you really cover? And he's gone on these huge YouTube and crypto podcasts with real people in the space that a lot of people look up to, and he never really got pressed that much. And so, you know, I don't know. I think that there's something to be said if this really falls out of bed the wrong way. You know, those. Those people might look back and say, hey, maybe I should have taken this a different way. But maybe they're just all about the views. Boys and us@Crypto101 are about the education and the community and the family. So if you're here, give us a, like, toss it, a thumbs up. We really appreciate everybody going. And as we transition out of this subject, I will read you one quote that I like to remind myself of every once in a while. Smart men go broke three ways. Liquor ladies and leverage. And I've heard rumors of Michael Saylor's yacht down in Miami. Oh, oh, we know he has leverage. And I don't know, I've been on a couple yachts myself. We all know what goes on there, so I don't know. I have to see this. Maybe. Maybe clip that for a future future clip the callback. So liquor ladies love. That's the famous late, great Charlie Munger. I always like to remind myself of the. That clip every once in a while. Let's end the show with some hopium. We love to buy the dip, boys. We are dip buyers. George Costanza don't double dip, but we love the dip. Let's pull up this chart. Brendan, did you bring this one for us?
- [54:47]
B
Yeah, I did.
- [54:49]
A
Let's do it.
- [54:51]
B
Yeah. This is one that I think it's important to look back on, right, because sometimes we get emotional, we get bearish on here, or we don't get bearish, but we talk about the bearish potential that there is, maybe even in the short, short term. But the long term stays the same here, guys. Regardless of. Of how we might look at the short term, you have to understand what the long term looks like. And this is a good one. From. From priced in Bitcoin or priced in BTC over on X. I'm sharing this chart. I believe it was with the last, like, 10 to 12 years of data, something like that. But it says, hey, if you would have bought the dip at these pullback increments of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70%, how much would your return rate be on average one year later? And what would your success rate or your win rate be one year later if you would have bought at those. Those pullback increments? Now we're at 53% right now, right around 52, 53%. I think at our low, we are 54%. So what if you're buying at a 50% or worse drawdown? Well, historically, kind of going off this data, what this says is that your average win rate would have been 89.8% and your. Excuse me, your average return rate would be 125%. So if you're buying Bitcoin at a 50% drawdown or greater, your average win rate is going to be nearly 90%. A year later, you'll be in the money positive, and the average return rate one year later is 125%. So if you can come in with nearly a 90% win rate and an average return of over 100%, like, the odds are pretty freaking good. What if we get to 60%? Well, based on this data, it's saying that your. Your average win rate one year later is 98.3% and your average return rate is even higher at 132%. So I kind of look at this as, like the Goldilocks zone. Do I want to be buying bitcoin at a 50 to 60% win rate or 70, which has 100% success rate based on historical data? Do I want to be buying at a 50 to 60% drawdown? Yes. But I want to make sure, like TiVo said, I'm not getting destroyed before the recovery tends to happen. A lot of people go in, they get over levered they oversize, you know, they just do it the wrong way. But if you're just looking at this with a longer term horizon saying, hey, the odds are based on historical data if you're buying now, and maybe I shouldn't frame it that way because nothing's financial advice, but the odds are, if I'm buying now based on historical data, you know, it's saying, hey, about 90% plus are the odds that you'll be profitable a year later. That I'll be profitable a year later. So I don't know about you guys, I like those odds. Having a near 90 plus percent odds of success with an average return of over 100%. It's decent looking based on the historical data. Now it's important to note, just because there's that data, it can go wrong, right? There is no guarantees. So there's good evidence saying, hey, do you want to be a long term buyer here for one, two years later? I think the evidence for me is pointing towards yes. But that doesn't mean that it can't go wrong. It has in the past. There's a reason that those numbers are not 100% and I think that's something worth noting. So there's always risk.
- [58:10]
A
That's a great point. I told Brian personally I had my weekly buys going on down here. Just, you know, little smidge, just a sprinkle, just every. And I don't think about it, it's just like, hey, this, it stinks down here. So I'm not going to think about it. Just you know, lower, lower, lower the cost basis here. So that, that's great, great stuff. Anything to add there for forward returns there on Hunter before we move on,
- [58:37]
C
this is a great chart and it's the old adage of not really timing the market, but time in the market and we're at deep value. And we, Brendan and I have spoke about this many times. This is the value accumulation spot. A little sprinkles on spot. I like it down here.
- [58:54]
A
Definitely. Yeah, I think we're all on the same page there. Not personal financial advice, just friends talking crypto and what they're doing. I'll pull up, I think some brighter kind of, to ride the back of this, some good news. So the Fed, we had our first Fed meeting with Kevin wars, the new Fed chair was, was interesting, you know, a lot of interesting information coming out of that of how he's going to operate the Fed. And again the Fed chair doesn't make the final decision. It's a, it's a Committee, so it's a committee vote. And, and there's been, with the war and inflation, everything from oil prices, there's been a fear of like, oh, gotta rate hike, rate hike. It, it feels like one of those things where it's the pendulum, right start of the year it was, we're getting two, three, who knows, maybe four rate cuts. And then we, you know, obviously the war happens, things change, and now it's on the opposite side. We're getting one, two rate hikes. And so it feels like the pendulum swinging a little bit violently. I might have to consult with my betting market specialist, Brian and I, as we like to dabble in some of the bets here. I don't know, fellas. At 53% of a rate hike, I personally, right here would take no, I would take no on the, on the rate hike. Not saying that there's going to be a cut, but no on the rate hike. And if anything, the Fed chair might talk markets down, but, but leave rates unchanged is kind of how I'm looking at the rest of the year. But with oil coming down in this, in theory, the straight being open, who knows at this point, that tweet goes out every day. It's closed, it's open, it's closed, it's open. But I think going into midterms, politic politically, like, there's no, there's no, no room for oil prices being above 100, et cetera.
- [60:37]
B
No, you're right. I think that with this as well, I'm kind of on board with taking the other side of this. If you think about what we see recently with the most, the latest Fed meeting that we got, which was Kevin Wirsch's first one as Fed chairman, they were going off of data that they had where oil was higher. If you look at oil in the last two or so weeks, guys, it's in a free fall. Oil has fallen here from around. I mean, what was it? I'm going to pull it up just on my end. I don't even have to show it on the screen. But if we're looking at what oil was at on June 1, the start of this month, just a couple of weeks ago, it was at 96, $97. We're now at $69 for oil. I mean, it has fallen. What is that from that.
- [61:24]
C
The thing is that that level is the level where we started the war at. That's the exact same level.
- [61:31]
B
Yeah, it's, it's a, I mean, it's a 30 drop since the start of this month. And it's overall a 42% drop, which, you're right, brings us back to where we were before a lot of this stuff even began. So I think all the people that are yelling for inflation, for yelling and they're screaming for rate hikes and they're saying all these things, I think the data is going to start going against that idea. You've already started to see people really get on board with this idea of rate hikes. But why are we talking about rate hikes? Well, it's largely due to energy. And a lot of the stuff that you've seen come out as a result of the conflict over there. Now all of a sudden, all that stuff's almost back to where it was when, when all of this started. So what are you going to say there? I don't know. Know how on earth you make an argument that if it comes all the way back down that you're still saying that, that that stuff is there? It appears that it was. Oh, I'm forgetting the word. Why am I forgetting it? It was our favorite word. I think it was transient.
- [62:29]
C
Transitory.
- [62:30]
B
Transitory, thank you. Transitory. Appears that it was transitory to a degree. And yeah, so TiVo, I think because of this, if you look at what the big inflation drivers have been, it's largely been from this conflict now with them coming back down, I think that they're gonna have to go into the next meeting with a drastically different set of data that they didn't have in the last one. But now so much has changed. If, if this stays in the 60s, by the, by the next time that there's a Fed meeting, you're gonna have a huge swing in what the data is saying. And I think that they have to, they have to, to, to take note of that. So if that's true, then the odds for rate hikes should drop like a rock hunter.
- [63:13]
A
Anything to add on the rates?
- [63:14]
C
Yeah, well said. And it's because, yeah, the PCE CPIs, they, they work on a lag, you know, one to two months before you see that oil. And so to Brendan's point, which is a great one, is that there's gonna be new data at the next Fed meeting. Now, you know, probabilities of it going up, of course, have gone up. You know, I'm in the camp that we could be neutral to maybe one. I mean, the median dot plot is for one one hike from this past meeting last week. But I think with the new data and how Kevin Warsh wants to approach cpi, he actually wants to Do a different metric. All, all like it's called the trim to mean where you take like the top 6% of price movements and the bottom 6%, you just wipe those out kind of like outliers. And then you take that average which will change and smooth out the inflation number. So then how they're going to approach the interest rate might actually, yeah, be a little bit more dovish, hopefully. And then of course there's how are they going to use the balance sheet which will also change a bit of the liquidity metrics because yields will, might, they might change just from the market standpoint, if they shrink the balance sheet, they let it run off. So we'll see if that's the case. But there's no, you know, denying that rates are definitely very correlated with bitcoin's price. So anytime, you know, once we get a little bit of that kind of plateau and then maybe the easing, that's going to be an area where the, the low comes in for sure.
- [64:38]
A
Well said points, fellas. Yeah, well said in a great episode. Active chat. One last call. Give it a like, subscribe if you're new and check out the links below. We got Brendan's training course. You can sign up for that. If that's not your type of what you're looking for, check out the other ones. We got a bunch of, of dollar trials so you can get in, get the information, get the coins of the week, get those first alerts and be a more part of the community and the team that's going to do it all for this Friday, guys. We really appreciate you doing it. Thank you Brendan. Thank you Hunter. And thank you to everybody that joined us on the live stream and everybody else listening over the weekend. I hope you enjoy it as we head into America, what, 250th birthday next week, we'll have a fun little episode. Be sure to make some content for you guys before we head out for the long weekend. We really appreciate you all joining, but
- [65:24]
C
that's all for now.
- [65:24]
A
Bye bye everybody.
- [65:36]
D
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- [66:36]
A
I cashed out my entire 401 thinking someone stole my identity.
- [66:40]
B
A fake email cost me my dream home. After I sent my personal information to a scammer, my AI agent wired thousands to an account I'd never seen.
- [66:48]
D
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