Brendan (15:15)
From a downtrend perspective, you know, this is where, you know, people might get a little frustrated. The downtrend here is still intact, right? We kind of draw a very rough trend line here and say, hey, we're still seeing, you know, all time highs, lower lows, lower highs, lower lows. We really have not broken out to a higher high yet. So overall the downtrend itself is, technically speaking, still intact. We're breaking the higher local highs, but we haven't even contested the prior consolidation range here. In fact, I think what we're seeing right now is the bare minimums of an early stage reversal, which is where you need to see higher local highs, higher local lows, getting above those short term moving averages, a little bit of a break in trend, rebounding over off of oversold levels, a lot of things like that. And we are seeing a lot of those which are good short term or early signs that this stuff is happening. However, in the big picture, you still have to kind of look at this and say, hey, well, the overall downtrend is still for the most part intact here and we're yet to break out of that. So I don't want to make that sound too bearish. But there's that which is point number one, point number two, which is just to say, you know, what we've seen here for the most part on bitcoin is that it's broken down and formed a rising channel or a bear flag via a rising channel. So we've had like the initial move down, bear flag, move down, bear flag, move down, bear flag, move down. And this is really the only fear I would say I have left with bitcoin. This is kind of like the final defense from the bears is that you're seeing price action that mimics a rising channel. So far it's not, you know, perfect, but it's certainly mimicking what we've seen a lot during some of these prior consolidation phases before a deeper move down. So this is the only thing that's holding me back is maybe a little bit hesitant, is the fact that we've kind of had this move down, rising channel, higher highs, higher lows, but no kind of clear breakout. You're getting slightly higher highs, not able to see a lot of follow through on the breakouts. We kind of just barely hit a new higher high and then we see a steep sell off back to the downside. And so I'm looking at the saying, you know, hey, if this is going to be another bear pole, bear flag combination like this, know we need to start being careful at this level. If we get the breakout and we invalidate this, bitcoin's in a really good spot for a reversal. It really, really is. I've been a big advocate that I think that we can see less volatility during this kind of bear cycle. I don't think we're going to see a 70% drawdown. I don't think we're going to see an 80% drawdown until the overall downtrend breaks. I'd say, you know, maybe one more leg down is a possibility, but it looks like that's becoming less and less viable or likely the More price action we're getting. So long as we are able to invalidate and break through the top of this falling channel or this rising channel. I think Bitcoin's in a great spot. You know, the other things that we've seen here are like the relative strength index recovering and this thing coming off of its second most oversold point ever. The MACD recovering off of its most oversold point ever of all time. And you've seen the Fear and Greed index recovering off of all time lows and all these things that typically do indicate that, you know, hey, if you haven't hit a bottom, you're mighty, mighty close to it. And so this has historically been areas of opportunity, which is the way that I view this final note here. TiVo, and I'll loop you back in. Just so much to talk about eth here, Ethan. A lot of the altcoins, the large cap altcoins have been leading the run for the most part and we're seeing massive breakthroughs on those today. Ethereum breaking through, this consolidation that it's been in since early February, destroying the ceiling of this. Breaking through with authority. This is exactly what you want to see on a breakout. You're seeing good volatility, explosive price action to the upside. And I would imagine here that if we come back to this towards the end of the day, you're going to see a decent level of volume, which is the final thing that I'm looking for. For if you're going over to Solana, you're seeing a similar story. This thing's pushing up to the highest level of price action that we've seen since early February. Trying to break through the ceiling of this, similar to Ethereum, a little bit less authority. You're seeing similar price action with BnB breaking out the higher highs here. A lot of these large caps. I think you can also look at Hyper Liquid, which is right on the edge of a top 10 crypto by market cap. It kind of, you know, balance beams on that line, you know, right around 10 to 13. But if you look at Hyper Liquid and what's happening to this thing, again, another very large market cap project that we've talked a lot about on the show. Breaking up here to the highest point that it's seen since November. Coming back to almost the $40 level, not quite a large cap, but one that we have talked about a lot. Sky Fairly large, almost $2 billion coming off of the highest point that it's seen since August of last year. Tau, another one that we talk about Going parabolic here as it's up, you know, I don't know what 60 to 70% in the last week and a half. And so crypto's really starting to get some, some speed and some confidence back into the market which is what we like to see. So you know, listen, we're up on a big winning streak right now. Again Bitcoin green about seven to eight days in a row. Same thing with a lot of these large caps. We want to see more follow through. I think the goal here for a lot of these large caps is to get back to their prior consolidation ranges. For bitcoin that's in the 80,000. That's kind of the idea. Target range is 80 to 90k. For Ethereum it's probably going to be up closer to maybe 28, 2900 ish, if not even a little higher. For Solana it's going to be back towards 120, 130, maybe even a little bit higher than that. And you know, if we are able to get this breakout and see some follow through. Listen, I think the markets have been so overextended to the downside. I don't think it's crazy for us to see, you know, maybe another 10, 20, 30 move up on a lot of these coins,