Crypto 101: Crypto Rundown – Venezuela Crypto Reserve Coming to the U.S.? & Fear and Greed Index Reset

Hosts: Bryce Paul, Brendan Viehman
Guest: Brian
Date: January 7, 2026

Episode Overview

The first Crypto Rundown episode of 2026 rings in the new year with a deep dive into the fresh rally in crypto markets, the current sentiment indices, macro news impacting crypto—including a major development in Venezuela—and the evolving dynamics of cycles, ETFs, and altcoins. Bryce and Brendan (joined by Brian) examine whether we’re witnessing the next bull market and explore how global events and institutional behavior are shaping crypto’s landscape for retail investors.

1. Crypto Market Kickoff: Green New Year, But Is It Bull Season?

Timestamp: 00:24–05:47

• Market Recap:

  • "We're going to cover a ton of macro stuff. We've got the rally going. Is the crypto bull market of 2026 kicking off?" (B, 00:24)
  • After a rough end to 2025, the first week of 2026 brought a strong uptick for Bitcoin, Ethereum, meme coins, and select altcoins.
    • Bitcoin returned to the $90,000s, briefly touching $94,000.
    • Meme coins and risk-on tokens saw double-digit gains, indicating retail risk appetite.

• Market Sentiment Anecdotes:

  • Hosts recall family holiday conversations—or lack thereof—about crypto, reading muted retail interest as a possible market bottom signal.
    • "My uncle who texted in mid-25 asking 'should I buy Bitcoin?' didn’t bring it up at Christmas. That’s a good sign." (B, 02:12)

• Major Movers:

  • Ethereum reclaimed key levels.
  • Ripple (XRP) up 19–20% amid general altcoin strength.

• Key Quote (Market Insight):

  • "There's people still out there that are ready to FOMO, that have a little bit more gamble in their blood. But we need to see strength in the overall majors." (Brian, 04:40)
  • Hosts urge caution: while sentiment is up, the market hasn't confirmed a “face melting” bull run yet.

2. Fear and Greed Index & Altcoin Season Metrics

Timestamp: 09:38–12:30

• State of Sentiment:

  • The Fear & Greed Index finally returns to neutral (50) after a record stretch in 'fear' territory through the holidays.
    • "We were in fear for a very long time...they set a record for the length that they were in fear for consecutive days." (B, 10:09)
  • Altcoin Index is still low (20s), showing little broad-based market excitement for altcoins yet.

• Analytical Takeaway:

  • This “neutral” sentiment suggests potential for upside, but also for more sideways market action.
  • Opportunities may exist for value hunters while large breakouts remain elusive.
  • “You gotta understand—plan your trade and trade your plan…there seems to be some opportunities out there.” (B, 11:38)

3. The Four-Year Cycle is “Officially Dead”

Timestamp: 12:30–14:38

• Key Discussion:

  • The traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle (halving-driven bull runs every four years) broke down: 2025 closed down ~5%, ending the previous pattern of post-halving rallies.
    • "The four year cycle is officially dead...We did not get a year of green for bitcoin." (B, 12:32)

• Contextual Analysis:

  • Brian attributes the shift to the increasing influence of institutional money and ETF flows:
    • "It’s a different cycle...It’s maturing and this doesn’t surprise me at all." (C, 13:16)
    • The rise of ETFs and institutional participation means smart money, not just retail or OGs, now set the tone.

• Actionable Viewpoint:

  • Brian continues to dollar-cost average, focusing on following institutional flows and ETF buying.
    • "Dollar cost average into some of my favorite positions. I think following smart money, following ETF flows, following institutional buying is all really smart." (C, 13:54)

4. Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Flows

Timestamp: 14:38–18:19

• ETF Flow Surge:

  • Bitcoin ETFs saw a strong $1.2B inflow in just the first two days of 2026—a $150B/year pace if sustained.
  • 2025, despite being a negative year price-wise, still saw $22B in inflows.
    • "It was a positive year for Bitcoin ETFs for inflows...even though bitcoin was down, it still took in $22 billion." (B, 15:13)

• Long-term Outlook:

  • Institutional buyers are accumulating for long-term positions, not for quick flips.
    • Cites Charlie Munger: "It's not the timing when you buy, it's the time you're in. It's the waiting game. That's where the big money is made." (B, 15:19)

• Forecasting:

  • Brian: “If we get to like a 131, $40,000 Bitcoin, we could see $50–70 billion in positive inflows on the year...we could really start to pick up.” (C, 17:22)

5. Tax-Loss Harvesting in Crypto

Timestamp: 18:19–22:49

• Behavioral Trends:

  • End-of-year saw significant tax-loss selling, with many investors strategically selling to realize losses against gains elsewhere, especially as tech stocks boomed.
    • "A lot of these people that put in big numbers of money into the 110, 120 level...they’re going to sell in November and December to take their loss." (B, 19:33)

• Crypto vs. Traditional Assets:

  • Crypto tax rules differ (no 30-day wash sale restriction, as applies to stocks/ETFs), making year-end strategies more flexible.
    • "In crypto...the same rules do not apply" for wash trading. (B, 21:00)
    • "There was a lot more tax talk the last month probably because a lot of people are down." (B, 21:53)

6. Major World News: Venezuela’s Crypto Reserves & U.S. Interest

Timestamp: 22:56–26:54

• Context:

  • Venezuela’s political turmoil and U.S. involvement raises questions about the fate of the nation’s hefty reserves: $17 billion in oil, plus significant crypto assets (bitcoin, tether).
  • Venezuela’s government has reportedly used tether and bitcoin to skirt sanctions—selling oil for tether, converting it to bitcoin.

• Key Panel Segment:

  • McKenzie Galos advises that possible U.S. confiscation (seizure) of Venezuela’s crypto reserves would be bullish for bitcoin since it would take supply off the open market and into state custody.
    • “There's a second order crypto effect here...because of spiraling inflation...a lot of people had turned to cryptocurrencies...There's multiple reports that the government itself has been looking to evade sanctions by doing sales of oil in tether which they then move into bitcoin. Even the promise that perhaps the U.S. government might seize these assets...That's a bull case for Bitcoin." (McKenzie Galos, 24:26)
  • Also notes XRP’s outsized recent performance speaks to broad 'risk-on' appetite: "When you see one altcoin do particularly well, it really is one of these signs of a risk on environment." (McKenzie Galos, 25:16)

• US Policy & Crypto Holdings:

  • Rumors circulate (unconfirmed) that the U.S. Department of Justice sold some bitcoin from strategic reserves ahead of administrative transition—potentially a negative for the market if true.
    • "We tried to do the research here, folks. We could not get it verified, but I think it's worth saying...Apparently the DOJ at some point sold some bitcoin out of the strategic US Reserve..." (B, 25:58)

7. Political & Corporate Adoption Notes

Timestamp: 26:54–28:30

• Senator Buys Bitwise ETF:

  • U.S. Senator David McCormick (former hedge fund CEO, now on the Senate Banking Committee) disclosed a $200,000 purchase of the Bitwise ETF.
    • "Somebody that especially in the government who clearly made his money before going into public service, I think is an interesting character to, to track the trade in." (B, 26:54)

• Crypto Legislation Watch:

  • The U.S. Senate is expected to vote on the Crypto Market Structure Bill next week, which could shape future market frameworks.
    • “The Senate's going to be discussing it first...starting off 2026 with the crypto market structure bill...opens the door for, you know, kind of bringing the markets and everything on chain." (B, 27:22)

• Corporate Treasury News:

  • Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, bought $779 million worth of Bitcoin in Q4, continuing the trend of corporations adding BTC to balance sheets.

8. Closing Thoughts & Notable Quotes

• Technical Difficulties:

  • Brian’s recurring connection issues became a running gag: "Technical, technical difficulties allowing. But let's talk about, let's, let's talk about Venezuela..." (B, 22:56)
  • The hosts apologize for the interruptions but commit to more frequent updates in 2026.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “The big money's made in...the waiting game.” (Charlie Munger, quoted by B, 15:19)
  • "The four year cycle is officially dead...I do personally believe it’s officially dead as well." (C, 14:36)

9. Timestamps for Major Segments

00:24 — Bull Market or Fake-out?
04:40 — Meme Coin Mania & Altcoin Appetite
09:38 — Fear and Greed Index Resets
12:30 — The Four-Year Cycle is Dead
14:38 — ETF and Institutional Inflow Dynamics
18:19 — Tax-Loss Harvesting Trends
22:56 — Venezuela, Geopolitics & Bitcoin Reserves
26:54 — US Senator Moves, Legislation, and Corporate Treasuries

10. Final Takeaways

• Markets have seen a green start to 2026, but the jury is out on whether a full bull market has returned.
• Retail sentiment remains cautious but opportunistic; smart money and institutional flows are the key signals to watch.
• Major world events—like Venezuela’s reserves potentially entering U.S. control—are increasingly relevant to crypto prices.
• The old rules (such as the four-year cycle) are giving way to a new era with ETF and government involvement.
• Upcoming political developments and continued corporate accumulation could catalyze further shifts.

For more technical analysis and the latest news, stay tuned for Thursday’s follow-up episode.

Hosts:
Bryce Paul (@brycepaul)
Brendan Viehman (@brendvieh)

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