← CRYPTO 101
CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: Venezuela Crypto Reserve Coming to the United States!? & Fear and Greed Index Rest
00:26:12
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign, Everybody. Welcome back to the crypto rundown presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future.
- [00:15]
B
Of Money and Happy 2026. It is our first episode of the new year. Super excited to be with you.
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A
I have Brian with us today, so.
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B
We'Re going to cover a ton of. Of the macro stuff. We've got the rally going. Is the crypto bull market of 2026 kicking off?
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A
Because after all that downward pressure into.
- [00:35]
B
The end of the year, that first week of the new year has been.
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A
Quite green for bitcoin, crypto and meme.
- [00:41]
B
Coins across the board. We're going to talk about all of it. There was some worldly news out of Venezuela and you might be thinking yourself, how does that affect the crypto markets? You'd be surprised because it does. We're going to cover that and we have Brian with us, so definitely some momentum money makers and stuff. Stuff. And meme coins to cover on the back half of the episode.
- [00:56]
A
Brian, welcome in.
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B
How was your break and were you.
- [01:00]
A
Having conversations at the dinner table?
- [01:02]
B
Like, I was where they were telling you, like, hey, how's your. How are your coins doing there, little buddy?
- [01:09]
C
That's. That's the best tweet around. I had a couple conversations like that, but I've. I've massaged everybody in my inner circle of exactly what to expect. They've heard me a lot talk about volatility and not to get too worked up on the big moves upward or the big moves down, but I had a great break, man. No complaints. The kids. Kids were having a blast. I had a blast. I'm ready to be back in it for a fiery 2026. How was yours? Is the big question.
- [01:36]
B
Yeah, man, it was good. I'm kind of in the same boat. Excited to be back. We're definitely going to try and get back into our regular kind of flow of putting out these episodes. Obviously, we're always going to have our flagship interviews with Bryce and Brendan, but the. The rundown family has grown over the last couple years and. And people want more. So that's what we're going to try and do in 26 is try to figure out how we can bring you the same content, but maybe on a more frequent basis. So excited to be with everybody. I think it was a great sign.
- [02:03]
A
I bring this up for laughs.
- [02:04]
B
I think this is one of my favorite memes, as you can see down here. You commented you loved it, but I.
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A
Do remember from last year that, you.
- [02:13]
B
Know, people were asking about it and, you know, hey, what's Chris should I buy. You know I had an uncle I remember that texted me in the middle of 25 kind of like is now the time to buy bitcoin? Should I buy some of this stuff? And then the same uncle at Christmas didn't bring it up at all or ask any questions about it. So I think that's a good sign. You know hey, could it, could it be a bottom tick? Who knows. We're kind of in been holding that range as we will switch over to coin market cap of kind of the support for bitcoin really holding strong in the 80,000 level popped back up to the 90s. We got up to what do we hit? 94 this week which again everybody was kind of starting to scream. They're like hey, we're back. And it's like oh easy, easy, calm down, calm down. Super exciting to be back into the 90s for sure. But I think the most thing that sticks out to me in the price action was bitcoin reclaiming the 90s. Ethereum reclaiming K. What were you seeing kind of this week the breakout over the last six days since the new year?
- [03:21]
C
Yeah, I mean it's been a green couple days and that's been great. I think we're going to kick off a great 20, 26 year. I think there's a lot of people probably wash trading in December. A lot of movement there across different wallets. We were, we were in the 80s for a while there. I wasn't sure how low we were going to go. I kind of was mentally prepared to touching the eighty thousand dollar mark but we, we started to show some real strength. I'm not fully committed that we're back into this like face melting bull market and it's just time to you know buy everything out there because you know everything's gonna go up. I still think we, we have some real footing to find here. I did look earlier today there's a large wall at about 95000 and earlier today we, we touched it or right there a couple times 94,5. So it's a pretty large cell wall at 95 000. I do think that we could be off to the races to over a hundred and once we get over that psychological hundred thousand dollar mark we talk about all the time that's when things are really going to start to heat up in altcoins and meme coins. But we certainly saw once we started to pick up and we got over 90, we held 90, we held 92, we got to 94. One thing that was pretty clear that people are still showing up. There's still an appetite for risk. And we're going to talk a little bit about later in the show, but meme coins in particular showed a lot of strength, some up 20, 30, 40, 60%. So what that shows me is that there's people still out there that are ready to FOMO that have a little bit more gamble in their blood. But we need to see strength in the overall majors. We need Bitcoin to get through that $95,000 mark. We need Solana to get above 140, 150. But there's been some nice movers. One that really stuck out to me, I saw good old Ripple, the XRP army. I am not part of them. But like I said, people have a little bit of appetite for risk. And that's up what, 19, 20% on the week. So this is a very positive sign to kind of just wrap it all up that we're seeing the majors move in a positive direction. But I think we still have a ways to go before we're just fully locked into like we're in the next wave. Let's go boys. And we could chop for a little bit longer, but definitely positive.
- [05:48]
A
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A
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A
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- [09:39]
B
Quince.com crypto101 yeah, it's, it's still again, nothing we say on the show is personal financial advice. It's just a couple friends talking crypto here. But it is one of those times where again the I brought up the altcoin season chart. But actually let's if we can, if we go back and switch to the fear greed index, we finally crawled out of the. Here we go. The fear greed index now is in completely neutral at 50%. I mean there was the time going.
- [10:08]
A
Into the holiday season that we were.
- [10:10]
B
In fear for a very long time. I've been seeing tweets that the, you know, there's a tons of different fear and greed indexes and they kind of all track similar but not the exact same. But a lot of these fear and.
- [10:21]
A
Greed indexes were actually in fear. They set a record for the length.
- [10:24]
B
That they were in fear for consecutive days. And it seemed to be a solid amount of time. And so we've seemed to in the last week we've broken out of this. If we go down to the 30 day here, you can kind of see we, let's see what was this one one. So we were fear one one, fear one two and then broke out of fear on one three, three days later. We're here with you today live and we're at 50. So again I think that's something that you like to see. We're going to cover some of the price action, some of those memes. But again you saw those kind of flying high kind of really just some wild like 20, 30% pumps off the bottom which, which I think is a, a good sign of, of where, you know, people want exposure. And then again if we share the altcoin index still something that's very, very low down in the 20s. Our yearly low was 12. So not too far from that. The yearly high in 25 was 78. Not even close close to that. So we've definitely been trending down on the bottom here for 30 plus days, even 90 days, it's, we haven't even broken out of our 90 day range there. Which again, if, if you're doing the research and there's some, you know, assets that you think are, might be underpriced, this is a good time to go shopping if your research and conviction kind of leads you there. But I think, I think overall the price action, I agree with you. It's like there's, there's no clear catalyst outward. But I think you got to be careful too because once that does happen, if there is that breakout of price, then you're just chasing again. And so, you know, you got to understand, you know, trade your plan and I'm sorry, plan your trade and trade your plan. It's like, hey, if you were trying to get some assets at a discount compared to a year six months ago, it seems to be, you know, like we've kind of been saying on the show here for, for a while now, there seems to be some opportunities out there because you don't want everything to rip back up another 20, 30% then, then you're fomoing back, you're fomoing back in. But I think the one thing that we want to touch on before we keep moving on is the four year cycle. Four year cycle is officially dead.
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A
That was the big talking point heading.
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B
Into the end of the year. A lot of the big, a lot of the big, you know, the, the big influencers in the space were coming on and starting to say like, hey, the four year cycle is dead. The four year cycle is dead. Well, officially it is because we did not get a year of green for bitcoin. We ended down the year about 5%. So it kind of breaks that trend again. What does this mean for this year? Nobody knows. Nobody has a crystal ball. But I think it is fascinating that the last six to eight weeks of the year, this four year cycle is dead. Really talk started happening and then sure enough, no matter what it is, when you talk about percentage changes for the year. So any thoughts on that, Brian?
- [13:14]
C
Yeah, I mean cycles overall are, there's always some sort of weight in cycles. I don't believe the four year standard cycle that we've seen in the past is what we, what we've always all what a lot of OGs have envisioned. I do believe with the flows of smart money, institutional money, ETFs, all that good stuff, that this is just a completely different cycle. It's a, it's a different cycle. It's maturing and this doesn't surprise me at all. And just going back to the fear and greed meter that you're talking about, I think right around like Thanksgiving, we were down to like a 10. I mean it was a low day. We, you and I, Brendan, the whole team, we were doing rundowns, we're trying to talk people off ledges. And it's just like that felt too low. That extreme fear felt too low. Right now where we're sitting right in the neutral, I actually think it's pretty appropriate. I feel like this is exactly where we are. We get break upwards or we could go down a little bit. This feels like a pretty good space. But my own personal opinion and what I'm doing in allocating my funds, it's what I've been always been doing. Dollar cost average into some of my favorite positions. I think following smart money, following ETF flows, following institutional buying is all really smart. And I think 2026 is going to be a huge year. But this is certainly an interesting tweet by you talking about the four year bitcoin cycle, because I, I, I do personally believe it's officially dead as well.
- [14:38]
B
Yeah, like you said, you follow the smart money, you're following flows. I mean we, we covered this towards the end of the year, but it was a positive year for Obviously the Bitcoin ETFs for when it comes to inflows. Ibit taking the, the crown there and then. Right. Even though bitcoin was down and then right out of the gate. 1.2 billion in flows for the first.
- [15:00]
A
First two days of the year.
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B
That's a $150 billion a year pace. Will it hold that? I don't know, probably not. But you know, it was raining last year as a down year. Right. Negative year.
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A
And it still took in $22 billion.
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B
So imagine if the sun's shining, Eric says, you know what, what could these ETFs do? I, I think that's a really interesting question. It reminded me a quote of Charlie Munger. It was something like, it's not, it's the, the big money's made in, in the, it's not the timing when you buy, it's the time you're in. It's the waiting game. That's where the big money is made. And so that kind of, kind of feels like what you said is follow the smart money. Like, you know, these funds that are putting up these numbers into this bitcoin etf, they're not doing it to, to sell this at the end of the year. And take a loss because they, they, they didn't technically. Right. The, the stats show that, you know, it's, it's a long term game for them. So it's a new era with these ETFs. It's a new era of institutions being involved not just in bitcoin, but crypto and blockchain and the technology and you know, moving things on chain. So, you know, we're obviously hand up completely biased, but we think this is where the future is going and we're super excited about it. I'll bring up, you want me to bring up the, the ETF tracker, you can kind of run down that. I know you like to hit those every once in a while.
- [16:29]
C
Yeah, I mean it's basically what we just, what we just talked about there is that we've had some positive days on the ETF flows into the year 2026. Institutions are still buying. There's a lot of smart money that's still buying. You can see that we were either down or chopping for a few weeks there. But right when the new calendar year flipped over, things start to look good. And what Eric said, or I think in his comment, that 150 billion year pace, I don't think we're going to get 150 billion. I hope we do, but I don't think we're going to see that huge number of inflows. But it's realistic. If we get to like a 131, $40,000 Bitcoin, we could see 50, 70 billion in positive inflows on the year. I mean, I'm just really spitballing here as I'm talking about it, but it's certainly encouraging as we're seeing the majors in, in the, the community, in the crypto community just starting to rally again and they're showing up every single day seeing positive ETF inflows. The fear and greed meter isn't a 10 anymore. It's kind of right in the neutral spot. I think it's, I don't know, it feels like we found that local bottom that we were all kind of talking about towards the end of the year with a lot of tax harvesting and a lot of uncertainty there, but now it feels like we've stabilized a little bit. I do think we could chop. I mean, I've said that word a lot over the past few weeks, but I still think we could chop in the 90s. But I do believe once we get through that $95,000 wall, we could be off to the races. And once we get over 100. There's going to be a psychological factor there. There's going to be a FOMO factor there. Retails gay. Start talking a lot more about it. And we could really start to pick up. And there's a lot of other catalysts that we always talk about that could help with that. But it's just great to see that these inflows are positive right now to start the year.
- [18:20]
B
Yeah. And nobody knows exactly why, you know, people sell, but the tax, the tax loss. You could kind of make the case here of. If you're looking at this chart here for the one year, it's like, okay, the majority of people bought from May, basically May to July. And then you had a little bit of the, the end of September, some buying here, but May to July, everybody put in their positions. And then people started fomoing in end of September. And then obviously in October, we had our liquidation point and we, we never kind of went up into the 120th again after that. So you had, you know, I'm just throwing. Does it give us a price here? So it's like, I mean, we could probably make an assumption that the average price bought is probably in the mid-90s to 115 would be the average price that people bought between May and September. And so when, when the, you know, the market drops down to 90 and.
- [19:10]
A
Breaks into the 80, that's what you're.
- [19:11]
B
Seeing here in November, in my opinion, is like, hey, you know, we were kind of hoping at least the end of August into September with this action, you're like, oh, man, there might be a chase for performance into the end of the year. Here was kind of what we were hoping, obviously, with the October liquidations, the biggest liquidation in crypto history, we did not get that. And I think that set the table for what we saw at the end of the year is, you know, a lot of these people that put in.
- [19:34]
A
You know, big numbers of money into.
- [19:36]
B
The, you know, the, the, the 110, 120 level is like, hey, they're going to go and they're going to sell in November and December. They're going to take their loss. But then you go again to the beginning of the year and, and you can kind of see the last 30 days a lot more selling than buying. And then for some magical reason, January 1st hits and there's a ton of inflows. And so you can kind of guess, at least strategically, that just because the calendar flips, I don't think people's thesis flip, I don't Think that's what that is. I think there's a lot of strategic selling in the window to know, like, hey, I want to get back into this position early in the next year once. But I do want the, you know, the tax loss to offset a lot of other gains that happened that we've talked about on this show. Whether it's the AI trade, you know, anything. Technology has been having an amazing generational run the last couple of years. So there's a lot of gains that probably need to be offset.
- [20:27]
C
Yeah, I mean, I had a lot more people this year talk about tax harvesting. Just personal, family, friends or text messages that I got in or people within the community talk and ask about tax harvesting. So I think.
- [20:41]
B
And we seem to have lost Brian there. Let me slack him to see if we can get back in. We are live. Hello to everybody. Live. Lost you, Brian. But we got Happy New Year from Deb. We got Zenin, Zen and Deb in the live chat. Appreciate you guys. Basically what Brian was saying is online we saw this a lot of. And again, nothing we say here on this show could ever be tax advice because we're not tax professionals. But there's a lot more. The crypto wash trading and basically what that entails is crypto has different rules than a stock or an etf. And so the traditional rule for the stock or ETF is if you sell, you can take that loss as a tax write off, but you can't buy that security back for 30 days. And whereas when it comes to crypto, they don't. Same rules do not apply. And so you got to do the research on your own. Depending on what state you live and what rules you follow with your own accountant. You know, you got to figure out what's best for you for, for doing that tax stuff. That's why we don't really talk about it on the show. But there was a lot more of tax talk the last month probably because.
- [21:53]
A
A lot of people are down.
- [21:54]
B
Like we said, they bought in the summer and they, they bought and kind of fomoed in when things were taken off and they got kind of caught on the wrong side of that trade for the year, but. Brian, are you back? I'm not sure. I see. I can't hear me.
- [22:08]
C
You can't hear me?
- [22:09]
B
Yeah. There you are.
- [22:10]
C
Yeah, I got, I got Rugged by Riverside. I don't know what happened, but yeah.
- [22:14]
B
You know, listen, listen, we're back. Glad to have you back.
- [22:19]
A
I basically just what I thought your.
- [22:20]
B
Point was going to be was we saw A lot of talk of the tax awash trading online this year more than ever. And probably because like I said is, you know, hey, people bought the quote unquote top and altcoins got, you know, fell off a cliff. And so people were taking the advantage of the different rules that crypto has. So I kind of teed that up for our listeners. But any, any cherry on top that you want to add for, for the tax conversation. Again, we aren't tax professionals. I already kind of prefaced that.
- [22:49]
C
No, you nailed it, man. I, I think that's exactly it. And just good to be back on the rundown here.
- [22:57]
B
Don't worry, you're always welcome. You're always welcome. Technical, technical difficulties allowing. But let's talk about, let's, let's talk about Venezuela. I mean we love, we love to talk world events on the show. I think we want to preface it when we, whenever we talk politics on the show, we just try to keep it as crypto related as we can or as market related as we can. And you know, we're not ashamed to share a good meme here. So you know, the United States goes in and, and gets the, the, the.
- [23:28]
A
President or non president.
- [23:29]
B
I have no take on that. But you know, the, the Maduro guy gets taken and there's, there's a lot of, of talk like okay, hey, well how does this affect the crypto market specifically? And there's a couple reasons. I think the number one is it's going to affect the markets in general based on oil. Venezuela holds, I believe, $17 billion worth of oil in their country along with a lot of other reserves like gold. So again that's a, that's definitely an attractive country with the wealth of natural resources that it has. But, but also Venezuela has been doing a lot of kind of transfer trading in tether and bitcoin. And so there was a report that came out yesterday that was will the US go after Venezuela's crypto reserve and add it to the US's. So let's, I got a clip of people talking about that. So let's check it out.
- [24:27]
E
So there is a second order crypto effect here where since for going back a decade now my reporting was back in 2017 because of spiraling inflation of the bul, a lot of people had turned to cryptocurrencies mining Etherium and Bitcoin in their homes in order to just have a stable source of, of cash. But the other side of this is the fact that there are multiple reports that the government itself has been Looking to evade sanctions by doing sales of oil in tether, which they then move into bitcoin. And so much of this market moves on sentiment. So even the promise that perhaps the U.S. government, when they came in, might seize these assets, hold on to it. That's a bull case for Bitcoin. If you have a stockpile such as that that isn't being liquidated.
- [25:10]
F
All right, very interesting stuff. Very quickly because we got to go. Is it, is it a tailwind for just bitcoin or also Ethereum Salana and some of these other coins?
- [25:17]
E
It's a rising tide lists all ships. In fact, XRP has had outsized performance. When you see one altcoin do particularly well, it really is one of these signs of a risk on environment.
- [25:26]
F
All right, McKenzie Galos, great to see you as always. Thank you very much. All right, before I let you go.
- [25:30]
B
One so interesting take there again. How does it, and how, and why does it matter for crypto? I mean, you heard it there. If they go after and figure out how to get these reserves and add them to the, the bitcoin reserve that the US has now, it's an interesting. It's basically a, it's not a purchase, obviously, it's a confiscation. But I mean, it's a big ad. It's a big, big, big ad to the US Reserve. Speaking of the US Reserve, there was some, there was some noise online.
- [25:57]
A
We tried to do the research here, folks.
- [25:58]
B
We could not get it verified, but I think it's worth saying if Cynthia Loomis is tweeting about it and there's a lot of chatter on it, apparently the DOJ at some point sold some bitcoin out of the strategic US Reserve before, you know, they were ousted out of their positions through the new administration. So this isn't something that would continue, but it was something that possibly happened. We weren't able to verify it on chain, but we did think it was, you know, notable enough to mention as Brian returns. Brian, I know we both tried to research this, but it's just something that again, we should note and hopefully we don't see any more of it.
- [26:39]
C
Yeah, this was certainly interesting to see this pop up like this. I'm definitely, I'm curious about what the on chain analysis is going to be behind this and what the reaction will be. But I think it's, it's the type of news that we want to deliver to the people here because we want to keep an eye on it.
- [26:55]
B
Yeah. And well, you know, that's a Negative kind of topic. There were some positive things. So I saw some tracker here that a politician, David, David McCormick just disclosed buying 200k of the Bitwise ETF. Our friends over at Bitwise Bit B, he's on the Senate Banking Committee. So I just thought again, that's interesting. Before he became a senator, he was the CEO of the largest hedge fund in the world. Again, I would consider him being in the know of somebody called smart money, somebody that especially in the government who clearly made his money before going into public service, I think is an interesting character to, to track the trade in. So, you know, you always love seeing people that, that hold power and are making decisions for this stuff, also believe in it with, with their purchases and kind of continuing on the government train. Next week, I believe there will be a vote for the. The U.S. senate. The U.S. senate's going to decide on the crypto market structure bill. So again, that's part of the legislation process. The Senate's going to be discussing it first. Again, that doesn't guarantee anything getting passed. There's a long process there to get these types of bills passed. But starting off 2026 with the crypto market structure bill, it's something that a lot of people in the space believe really opens the door for, you know, kind of bringing the markets and everything on chain. So are you excited Brian's gone again? This is going to end up being a solo episode, Friends and Family with me. Never done a solo episode before, so bear with me. We'll run down and give you the rest of the news before we head out of here. Tether. While we were over break, Tether bought $779 million worth of Bitcoin. Over Q4, it was reported again, lots of big companies are buying bitcoin. It's not just the DATs. Right. We've covered obviously, MicroStrategy and then bit mine for ETH. But there's just a lot of companies that enjoy having bitcoin on their balance sheet and Tether has always had that and continues to add and it's interesting when they're the largest stablecoin in the world. So that was all the news that I had. Brian's going to try and join us one more time and then we'll see if he can give us some updates on the memes. If not, we'll keep this episode short to just kind of that update and then we can try to figure out, figure out what was going on with Brian and bring him back on, which I think we're just gonna end up doing so. Again, sorry about the technical difficulties there with Brian, but we did want to get an episode out to you guys for the new year to break down what was going on while we were gone over break. I'm gonna be back later this week. We'll be back Thursday. I'll find out the time and put it on our YouTube community. So you guys know where to find us on Thursday. What time with Brendan. We'll do a little technical announcement analysis and we'll cover the rest of the news. But that's going to be all for today, folks. Really appreciate you technical difficulties to start 2026, so hopefully we get them all out of the way today for a smooth ride the rest of the year. My name's TiVo. I always appreciate you guys listening and we're going to talk to you guys soon. All right. Bye Bye everybody.
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Well, the holidays have come and gone once again, but if you've forgotten to get that special someone in your life a gift. Well, Mint Mobile is extending their holiday offer of half off unlimited wireless. So here's the idea. You get it now, you call it an early present for next year.
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B
What do you have to lose?
- [30:53]
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Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch limited time.
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