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CRYPTO 101
Crypto Rundown: What The Technicals are Saying About Bitcoin & Walmart Accepts Crypto Payments
00:42:03
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- [00:00]
TiVo
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Everybody. Welcome back to the Crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. And we're back here with another rundown. Getting back to the two per week schedule that we try to keep for you guys. We were here earlier with Brian this week. We've got Brendan today. What an awesome day. And they're honestly a lot of news, obviously. Brendan, our technical analysis guru. We're going to open up the charts. We've got a little bit of some macro risk that we're going to flag, but really it's about all the bullish news that continues to flow in we talked about last week. We're going to get Brendan's thoughts on it now about Vanguard opening up the floodgates. Bank of America wants you to do 4% in crypto. And there's now another big financial firm that's recommending crypto, that old JP Morgan. I call him Jamie. Crypto diamond has a price target out on bitcoin that's well into the six figures. And some interesting, awesome news around Walmart having crypto being able to use for payments. We're going to cover it all here on you for this rundown. Brendan, welcome back, my friend. Good to see you.
- [01:12]
Brendan
It is good to be back. Good to be back from a nice little break and hiatus. But I mean to you, so much going on here. The roller coaster has continued since me and you were last on consistently. Up, down, up, down, a little bit further down. Now we're on our way back up. The people are asking, are we back? I'll tell you what, it certainly feels like it. I mean, the fundamentals never stopped. I think that's the thing, is that the fundamentals never stopped. The technicals were lagging behind a little bit. That's where we were seeing the bleed. But there's a lot going on on both the charts and of course, like the fundamentals in the news and all the big developments. So we're excited to, to bring everything to all of you that are listening. Of course, we like to do this every single week, multiple times a week, which is what we're getting back to. But let's just kick things off with the chart, right? I always say, ultimately, 99% of people care about what's happening with the price, right? Is my money going up or is my money going down? And that's what I think the bulk of people really truly do care about. And I think everything else is just kind of the icing on top. So let's go over to a Screen share here. Let's take a quick look at Mr. Bitcoin. And you know, it's been an interesting development because back on November 1st, which is about a week and a half, almost two weeks ago now, Bitcoin put in a nice bottom man. I mean, it hit $80,000, this fire sale of an opportunity. And I think actually we were on around that time and one of the things that we highlighted it was either with me and you or me, you and Brian. And I said, look, there's a couple of different data points that we can look at. Number one, the fear and greed index is at the lowest point that we've seen since a lot of these historic market bottoms.
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TiVo
You see.
- [02:53]
Brendan
Can you look at the last time the fear and greed index was at a 10 or below? It was the bottom of the COVID crash, it was the bottom of the 2022 bear market, and it was the bottom of the tariff crash. Like those are all the significant times we got below a 10 on the fear and greed index. And we hit it on this move again, saying, hey, historically this is around the time where there's a decent buying opportunity to catch some longs and get some, some big positions. And then we also looked at the relative strength index right on the daily chart and we said, hey, the last time the fear and greed or the one day RSI was this low was the bottom of that 2023 pullback. So it was August of 2023. And then we looked at the weekly RSI and we said, hey, the last time the weekly RSI was this low was when the markets bottomed out in 2022 during the absolute bottom. And then before that you had Covid. Before that you had the 2018 bottom and you had all these historical events where it's like, hey, the RSI has only ever been at these levels at the bottom of 2018 on the weekly chart, the bottom of 2018, the bottom of 2020 and the 2022 bottom. And you kind of look at this and you plot and you say, okay, well, we're at these interesting levels where both the rsi, the Fear and greed index, all these other things are saying we are historically, maybe not fully there, but we're really, really dang close to where the markets have bottomed. And so to kind of paint this picture for everyone once again, that might be new. This is where that daily RSI bottomed the last time it was this low. And this is where the weekly RSI bottom the last time that it was kind of down in this level Relatively speaking, both of those pretty good buying opportunities, we kind of zoom out to some of these other ones. This is that 2018 bottom the last time we were here, this is the COVID bottom right in here. And so we're at this level where historically when we're around this, it's generally a decent time to buy. We're not always saying you're going to absolutely bottom ticket, but what I can safely say is that when we get around these levels in the big picture, it has been one of the best buying opportunities, which helps us kind of zoom back into the current chart. I think there's still a couple of things that I want everyone to pay attention to. Most notably after this bottom TiVo, we formed a higher low right on the candle chart. We rally back up to the 20 day moving average. And the part that really took me for a spin was we had this rejection of the 20 consolidation, second rejection of the 20 day moving average and then huge move down. I mean if you measure this from top to bottom was about a 10 and a half percent move on Bitcoin and this one daily candle alone was about 7, almost 8%. So this huge rejection candle and it would looked like there was going to be continuation to the downside. The big takeaway even if you're not a charting person is that to have such a large selling pressure and selling candle get wiped out the very next day and invalidated is huge. Because if you have such a large rejection candle get just wiped off the face of the earth by this single follow up candle that happened afterwards. It's a huge sign of like disrespect of the bears. It's an invalidation of the bearish formation and it's just like. Yeah, I mean there's really no other way to describe it besides if you're a bear, like that's the most disrespectful candle that you could have is saying everything that you just did in here doesn't matter. And you have a single green candle where bitcoin climbs about 7 1/2% to the upside, erases all of the rejections gains in a single day, breaks through the 20 day moving average and sends this thing higher. So you have this huge kind of invalidation candle from the bulls coming in and invalidating with kind of bearish structure that we saw. And so now what we're getting here is a little bit of the break in the trend. Bitcoin's getting through some of these prior highs, trying to getting through that 20 day moving average and so now we're at an interesting spot where really since the market topped out here back in October, the only other time that we had really seen ourselves get to this point was.
- [07:00]
This, this one little fake out, right, where we broke through the 20 really briefly and immediately sold off back under it. But other than that, you have a rejection of the 20 here, rejection here, fake out here, rejection here, rejection here, rejection here. And now you're getting a breakout. So the big thing to look for moving forward is is this the.
- [07:21]
TiVo
Is.
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Brendan
This a break of the trend, right? Is this the market pivoting and reversing back to the upside? Because we are seeing some short term structure break to the upside, which is a good sign from the bulls. So I like this, I want to pay attention to that. You have a higher low building into this flat level of resistance. Generally speaking, that can be a good sign. I think the only bearish thing that you would want to watch out for in here is will this form some sort of rising channel which could be a bear flag, right? Move down rising channel would be bad. So that's one of the things you want to keep an eye out on. But I think the next area to Target is around 100K. And listen, we're going to chop around, we're going to have our red days, they're going to happen. It's normal. The big thing that I want to see here is that these higher lows hold. But I still think the most important thing that I want to see is a higher swing low on this one day relative strength index. And the best way to compare what we're having, what we're doing seeing happen right in here is if we go back to like June, July, August of this year, we had this absolute peak in the market and then we had lower local highs and lower local lows. And you kind of saw this happening and you know, yeah, it was a little bit of an opportunity, but the real kind of short opportunity was when the lower swing high happened right here to right here. And you saw this print as this bearish form of divergence. What we want to see now is the opposite, right? We want to see the opposite of what we saw here happen here where we get a higher swing low in the really some more upside continuation. And that's like the number one thing that I'm watching out for. So obviously we want to keep an eye on the candle chart. But I want to see that the bears are losing strength on the pullbacks and that the bulls are gaining strength on the pullbacks and I think one of the, the RSI is one of the best ways to do that. So going to keep a close eye on that. Speaking about altcoins here, you're seeing all outperformance from Ethereum. Ethereum actually outperforming Bitcoin on some of these moves. We talked about this rebound in bitcoin of being like 10 +%. Then you have Ethereum pushing up almost 20%, showing just a decent sign of outperformance. And you're seeing altcoins kind of rally alongside this. Solana off the lows, rallying about 20%. XRP off some of these recent lows rallied about 10%. So a little bit weaker, but still holding onto that support. BNB, another large cap, rallying, you know, about 14, 15%. And then as you get into the general altcoin market, these are the ones that sold off the most. But like things like Aerodrome, you know, we've had them on the podcast, we've had them on the show. We like this project up almost 30% off these recent lows. And so you're really starting to see a bit of redemption from some of these alts, not all of them quite yet because you're still having bitcoin dominance look a little bit shaky in here. Not really do anything too crazy. But again, I think the big thing to watch out for is what's happening in the large caps, what's happening with bitcoin, because that's going to determine the trend for the rest of the market. So if you want to look at anything, look at Bitcoin for the overall direction and then look at Ethereum Solana to kind of be the direction of what altcoins should do and should follow up on. But I mean, listen to what I'm seeing here is pretty decent signs across the board where it's like, hey, we don't have full proof, full structure of a reversal, but there's a lot of early signs that are pointing towards that and the chart looks good. I think we can still have pullbacks, we can still see some, maybe a little bit lower prices. This is an area where I'm saying, okay, I see good signs, I like what I'm seeing. I'm okay actually doing a little bit of dollar cost averaging and buying here and getting into some more risk. And there are these early signs. So I think it's worth acknowledging that I'm not going to go the full direction of saying, you know, everything's like euphoric. Again, we're not quite to that level. But listen I think things are doing good. Things are looking a lot better than they were. Yeah.
- [11:21]
TiVo
And again, I think we've said on the show many times that volatility is opportunity if you know what you're doing and just a masterclass on the charts there. We appreciate you coming on, doing that. And if you, as people know, you have your six week micro bull run trading course where you get, you know, access to you twice or twice a week for live streams to go over more around the technical analysis stuff and then just a full six week course on learning. Ta. So some might say this is a great time to do it with prices kind of, you know, haven't fallen a little bit and you kind of understand that there's opportunity and learning the fundamentals of trading. So if you're interested, it only opens up I think once every six weeks or so. So there's a link down below if you want to get on the mailing list to get Brendan's market updates and know when that course opens up. So check out that link if you want more technical analysis with Brendan. I'm going to share my screen, Brendan, because on the other day.
- [12:15]
With Brian, we always kind of been obviously looking at the coin market cap fear greed index a lot recently because it's just been so low and I had a call, I think it was like 18 when last time we were on with Brian a couple days ago and I said I'm going to be on with Brendan later in the week and I bet it's in the 20s. I gave it a TiVo, a guarantee that it was going to be in the 20s. And here we are at 27. Nice little bounce again, still in fear, still in fear, but something again, all these technicals and all the data that we try to collect, it's an interesting time and a lot of it is scream, screaming opportunity. Obviously we're not financial advisors. Nothing we say is personal financial advice, just some friends talking crypto. But I think everybody on the team is, is, is doing their best to do the research and, and give out, you know, good podcasts, great newsletters, great technical analysis. So, you know, obviously you're in the right place here listening to the show but check out the links below if you want some more as we move on. One thing I did want to highlight because kind of people, you know, I think we have a, we have the best fans. We're actually going to cover that at the end of the show. We have some of the best fans in the world in the podcasting space. But we, when there's volatility. There's always a couple loud people in the room saying what happened? Why didn't you know this was going to happen? Blah, blah, blah. And it's like, hey, listen, nobody has a crystal ball, trust me. But there is something that, that I am monitoring. Didn't know if you had any thoughts on it, but something's going on in Japan and, and if we go back and kind of remember we've talked about this on the show a lot is the Nikai trade. Back in the day, me and you were covering that live as it happened. We identified that as a buy the dip opportunity. I think bitcoin went down to this is pre Trump election and it just, this Nakai trade was an arbitrage where people were, you know, arbitraging and then getting leverage off the arbitrage and it just blew up. So when I see stuff like this, you know, the world markets, everything is connected. But I think the US Is always interested in, in the Japan market, number one, because it's trading opposite times. When the market's closed here and we're sleeping, the Japan market is open. So right now Japan has a new prime, I believe it's prime Minister and they're looking to possibly raise rates, but also at the same time they're printing stimulus. That, that's usually counterintuitive and again, this is way above my economic degree that I do not have. But it's just when you see stuff like this, I think it's a little bit of a flag. Japan had kind of rolled out of bed, I think earlier last week and the market had a little upset tummy over it, but it was only for a day and then things, you know, went up. So I think it's something to watch. Nothing that I'm personally looking to trade on, but you know, we try to give everybody macro information to make their own decisions. This is something that I think to keep an eye on. And again, if something breaks in another worldly macroeconomic market, it is going to affect bitcoin, it is going to affect crypto, it is going to affect the US Stock markets. Something to watch here because it feels like there's a new regime of power over there. And again, you're raising rates but printing stimulus. That doesn't, that doesn't make sense. But any thoughts, Brennan?
- [15:19]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, you're right. The last time we saw Japan talking about raising their rates, it was a big deal because the world kind of looks at them as like a low rate kind of borrowing market and a lot of the world works through that for that exact reason that it affects more than just Japan. And people are asking like, why should we care? That's why. Because most of the world looks at Japan as like the kind of like borrowing and lending, an interest market. And they're a huge hub for that because their rates are so low. So if you change that, you throw off kind of the whole global structure and how people look at things. And the last time that we saw this happen, there was a bit of panic. Not even a bit, a lot of panic. And it happened from July 29, 2024 to August 5 of 2024. So it was a seven day window. And in that seven day window, Bitcoin fell 30%. I think it was 29 to 30% in seven days flat, which is crazy. And so people freaked out at the idea of there being rate hikes and them getting more aggressive and hawkish. And bitcoin saw a pretty gnarly sell off the last time. So I don't think, I don't think it's likely that we see that kind of same reaction because last time it was a little bit more out of left field and there was a worse reception to it. This time it seems like it's a little bit different, It's a little bit more thought through and kind of being eased into it. But I think people should just be aware of that. Again, the last time that this happened to some similar degree, there was about a 30% retracement in the price action of bitcoin. You had the traditional stock market getting hit really hard during the same period. Everything kind of freaked out. So, you know, just something again, we like to remind everyone, like, hey, keep an eye on this. Keep it in the back of your mind. I don't think it's going to be nearly as big of a deal, but I think it's a really great thing to bring up. Thibaut. So this is a good catch.
- [17:13]
TiVo
Yeah. Again, there's plenty of other stuff that we've got that is kind of bullish and full steam ahead of all the, all the price action that people have not liked. Again, we keep saying the fundamentals for us haven't changed. If anything, the news just continues to get more bullish. And we'll jump over to Congressman. I don't know how to pronounce that last name. Honestly, Brendan, I don't even wanna. But yeah, I thought this was interesting. Obviously, Cynthia Loomis is kind of, I'll call her a Twitter expert. She likes to tweet out a lot positive stuff. So I know we appreciate it as the bitcoin community, but it is, it's kind of like a little bit of like a Peter Schiff edge where she knows how to get the engagement. You know, every once in a while she just tweets out, we're, we're making progress on bitcoin this and that. And there has been a lot of progress, but I haven't heard too much about the US buying more bitcoin. It's just kind of tweets and little like, you know, sentences and engagement. But I thought this was really interesting by this congressman who really lays out the process of how it could be done. Again, this is not in the law. I think this is more of, kind of a proposition of what could be done of what's being talked about on Capitol Hill. But it was something kind of new and very detailed that I thought was interesting. So let's take a look.
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Guest Expert
Bitcoin act establishes the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a federal initiative to ensure that the United States holds a meaningful position in the most important decentralized financial network on earth. With an eye to fiscal responsibility and innovation, the legislation outlines a plan to phase in the acquisition of up to 1 million Bitcoin, or roughly 5% of its total final supply over five years. Importantly, this will be done without raising taxes or increasing government debt. The Bitcoin act is designed to be budget neutral, relying on Federal Reserve remittances, which exceeded $76 billion in 2023, gold certificate revaluations, unlocking additional capital without new spending, and updates to the exchange stabilization Fund. These mechanisms allow us to build a strategic reserve without burdening taxpayers while also potentially offsetting long term national debt. Bitcoin act establishes the.
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TiVo
So I thought that was awesome, Brendan. You saw that? I tweeted it and put it on there. So I want to toss to you for first word.
- [19:38]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, listen, there's been a lot of talk about the US eventually buying bitcoin. So far the plan has been the US Is going to make it a strategic reserve. We're not going to sell it and maybe we acquire it through like illegal seizures and things like that, but there's no real accumulation plan and that's what people have wanted. So now the topic's coming back up. Can the US like, seriously, like a lot of these politicians are pushing for this. They want this. They're becoming increasingly bigger fans of crypto and this topic circulating around again. So we're going to be biased, right? I think we hold bitcoin. A lot of our holders and listeners, they all hold bitcoin. And you know, we biasedly want something like this to happen, but it's coming back to the spotlight in terms of the US Government. You have congressmen talking about this thing, you have senators talking about this. And listen, it could become a reality. I think the question is like how do they go about this? Because if they do it through taxpayer money, people are going to push back, right? Personally, again, I'm biased. I might be okay with that because I hold a decent amount of bitcoin. But I understand if I could put myself into the shoes of someone who doesn't have exposure or doesn't want exposure, they would be upset about something like this. So I understand that. So the real question is, how would we go about did you know your.
- [21:02]
TiVo
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- [23:47]
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- [24:13]
Brendan
All the answers, but I like to see this be brought back to the spotlight. And let me tell you, if this happens, it sets a new global standard. You probably see other countries follow up on this and in the same way that you see a lot of countries have different, different kinds of reserves, you know, treasuries and bonds and different fiat currencies that they hold and different metals that they hold. And some countries hold a lot of oil and there's this like diverse set of assets, both hard and paper that they hold. I think it makes sense to have something that's a little bit more digital as well sprinkled into there. And that's kind of the way that I see us working towards here. So Again, not confirmed, but we're seeing more and more attention, more and more push get kind of put onto this area. And yeah, I'll just say, you know, if we do get this, I mean, be prepared for. For bitcoin's price to be strapped onto an Elon rocket and sent through the. Yeah, sent through the galaxy.
- [25:10]
TiVo
My favorite. My favorite thing that I've heard been tossed around is the. You could pay your taxes in bitcoin and it would be like you'd get no capital gains on it. That one would be. That one would be elite budget, pretty cool way.
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Brendan
Yeah.
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TiVo
So it's. Again, we've heard a lot of just chatter about how are we going to buy more bitcoin. And you know, again, the tweets are one thing, but a detailed plan like that is another. Just thought it would be worth eyeing up. And then I saw that you put on the. So basically for 2026, I'm really interested in that storyline, how the US is going to acquire more bitcoin. And then the Fed chair and I saw you put a link down there for the Fed chair and Kevin Hassett. Brian and I did cover that last week because we were doing some poly market update stuff and I actually nabbed Kevin Hassett a little early at 50% and that's upright. Good call. It was a good call.
- [26:01]
Brendan
It was a good call. And I, I liked in that. That interview that he had, he basically leaked it right where like the poly market odds and everyone was like, pretty speculative that, like, it would be him, but it was still up in the air. And then he had that. He had that. I don't know, what was it, like a meeting or something this week? And he's like. I don't know if I'm allowed to say this, but, you know, something about.
- [26:22]
TiVo
He might be in the room. Is he in the room?
- [26:24]
Brendan
He might be in the room. Thanks. And then he goes, thanks, Kevin. And everyone in the room turns their heads towards Kevin Hassett and you see Scott Bessant's face just like, trying to stay as, like, still faced as possible. You could see him freaking out a little bit. And he says, thanks, Kevin. And everyone looks towards him and it's like, all right, well, we have almost as much confirmation as we can without it being official. I thought it was hilarious.
- [26:47]
TiVo
Yeah. No, I just reiterate. The story was I was watching CBS Sunday Morning and then Kevin Hassett was on and the interviewer was like, grilled him, like, oh, like you're. You're the, you know, the leading candidate, blah, blah, blah, like for the Fed, what do you think? Anything. And then instead of like, in those situations, a lot of times people will just kind of push it to the side, be like, oh, no. Like, you know, it'd be an honor to be considered, but it's nothing I'm looking into. He had no answer like that. He just kind of like, smirked and was like, yeah, you know, we'll, you know, it's something we'll see. We're talking about it. And so I jumped on to Kalsi and just grabbed it real quick at like 50. And then that what you just explained happened and it went from 50 to like 85. So good little snag there. Good little snag. But let's. Those are the top two things that I'm looking for. 26. And we'll obviously have some more, you know, end of year episodes coming out later this month. But again, just moving on to all the bullish news, this is what you come to the show for. The, the fun stuff. The fundamentals haven't changed for us. And it continues on with Russia's second largest bank to launch Bitcoin and crypto trading in 2026. Brennan, are you thinking about moving to Russia?
- [27:56]
Brendan
You know, I've already done it once. I don't think I want to do it again. That's a little bit of backstory for people who didn't know, lived abroad for a bit over, you know, Russia, Ukraine and different places. But no, no thoughts on. No thoughts. Especially not right now. But, you know, I think it's, it's important. And the reason I included this is because.
- [28:21]
We'Re seeing traditional financial adoption and we talk about that a lot and we always talk about how it's happening in the U.S. but it's, it's global. And I want to always remind people of that of. It doesn't matter if it's in Asia or Europe or North America or South America, wherever. Like, you are seeing this happen on a global level where all these traditional asset managers, all these banks, all these different forms of traditional banking, they all want to get in on this. And we've seen a huge push in the U.S. but people, people don't talk about how much is happening overseas as well. So again, regardless of your, whether you're talking about.
- [29:02]
Japan or China or Russia or people always talk about, like, you know, El Salvador and all these other countries. Like, this stuff is happening in a major way and it's almost everywhere in the world. So just, again, important to talk about this. This really is happening on a global scale and there's no signs of it slowing down. Yeah.
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TiVo
And we covered this earlier in the week with Vanguard, bank of America. If you guys listened to the last show with Brian, we kind of went a deep dive on it. But it's, it is honestly such big news that we'll bring up our tweet from our friend Ryan from Bitwise. Your interview with him is in our backlog for later in the month for some holiday break. It's going to be a great outlook into 2026, as I mentioned before in the show. But we need, we need your thoughts on this, Brandon, because again, I don't think that it can be stressed enough, at least from my head. You know, sometimes I like to pull out the tin foil and wrap it around my head. Like, what interesting timing for bitcoin to absolutely decouple from the nasdaq, the stock market fall off a cliff.
- [30:04]
Brendan
Yeah.
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TiVo
And then now all of a sudden, Vanguard is unleashing it to its clients. Bank of America wants 4%. The timing is quite interesting, but it is such a big announcement. These are the old guards that have said never, never, never. Just not only Vanguard not only giving bitcoin, but giving some altcoin ETFs and all that stuff. So we need your take. It's literally something that no matter who came on the show, Bryce, Rohit, Brendan, Joe, like, I need everybody's take. So, so break it down for us. What are your thoughts?
- [30:34]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, listen, if I was gonna put on a tinfoil hat and get a little bit conspira, you know, conspiracy, like with this, I would say that they wanted to get in at a lower price and that they wanted the prices to be down a little bit more before they announced something like this. Maybe they wanted to get in. Maybe they knew people who wanted to get in. I don't know, maybe something was happening. But that's gonna be my tinfoil hat take is that, of course all the stuff gets announced after the price goes down a lot, but it is big. I mean, you look at it, Vanguard unleashing 50 million clients. Bank of America recommending 1 to up to 4% of Bitcoin allocation. These numbers continue to grow. Right, We've talked about this. People in the podcast have talked about this. Year over year, these numbers grow from no exposure to 1%, 2, 3. Now we're seeing 4 or 5 plus percent exposure. And it continues to grow.
- [31:26]
The Fed ended its two and a half year quantitative tightening program. And it's like Ryan said, like the week was just getting started when all this stuff was happening and we're trending in the right direction. All of the fundamental news is aligning with crypto, doing bigger and better things and doing positive in the future. The only piece of data, and I mean this, the only piece of data that has been negatively impacting crypto has been that big liquidation event. And I've talked about the lingering effects of that and the side effects and the ripple effects that have come with that large liquidation event that we had in early to mid October. That has been about it. That has been the primary negative catalyst for the crypto market. If we don't have that, if you erase that, I think we're in an entirely different world because all of these other positive things are still happening. Right. So, yeah, I mean, I don't want to be a dead horse, but, like, there's just. There's too many positive things to let all of them get outweighed by a single negative thing. Even though it was a pretty big and gnarly event, I don't think it's worth overshadowing everything else that's happening. So it's important to pay attention to this kind of thing. Yeah.
- [32:38]
TiVo
And then again, add it to the list. Another one comes out of the woodwork saying they want to offer it. Charles Schwab added to the list offering Bitcoin and ethereum in early 2026. Nice little press release there, Brendan, to add it with Vanguard this week. If I'm on, if I could find odds on this on Cowshire polymarket, I would say that Charles Schwab is going to be offering more than just Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2026. But they're just doing a little sampler here. A little sampler. Not to miss the boat, but it just builds. Yeah, it just builds on your point of just the adoption and all that stuff. And then again, our friends over at J.P. morgan, friend of the show, Jamie Crypto diamond. Again, the. The analysts over at JP Morgan are saying, nice support here. Just kind of like you showed us on the charts earlier, nice support around 90 to 94. And JP Morgan analyst sees a potential move towards $170,000 per Bitcoin. Again, this isn't a quote directly from Jamie Dimon. Just want to clear that up. But again, it's, it's, I think the number one thing. We've had a lot of great calls on this show, but specifically, the number one thing was Jamie Crypto diamond running around the world the last two to three years, calling this stuff, a scam, Pet Rock, all that stuff. And then all of a sudden JP Morgan just starts rolling out the red carpet for not only crypto and blockchain, but they started doing the, the, you know, bitcoin derivatives product, prod product. Kind of like they're basically trying to be Michael Saylor now. They announced that this week and then again all this bullish price targets. So I just. It's one of the, it's one of the all time head fakes of all time. I think for financial, I don't know what we call ourselves a financial entertainment show. One of the great calls on this show. We, we read that all the way.
- [34:29]
Brendan
Yeah. A hundred percent man. And yeah, I don't know, there's. There's no other way to put it but like it's hard to read all this and then be like not excited for what's going to happen in the coming months. J.P. morgan, Charles Schwab, Vanguard, you know, all these new ETFs, the list goes on adoption, New banks, new asset managers, Positive regulation. Talks about the US buying more bitcoin. Like, what else do you want? Are you going to let all of this, as I just said, are you going to let all this overshadow the one liquidation event that we had? It's like you can either be the person selling during that liquidation event or you can be the person that's looking for a buying opportunity. And at the very beginning we showed the last time that we are in these kind of selling pressure events were like not sell it, not selling opportunities. Bottom of 2018, bottom of 2022, bottom of COVID in 2020, bottom of the tariff crash this year. All of those were buying opportunities and for whatever people, people want to look and I have such a hard time understanding and relating to this. People want to look this time and they want to say, oh, but it's different. Oh, but it's this, this is different because of X, Y and Z. And it's like. But is it, is it really though? I think people have these blindfolds on where they're seeing what they want to see and maybe they're biased about it. But again, just look at the news read like, look at what's happening here. Is it really as bad as you think it is? I don't think so. I have a hard time siding with.
- [36:01]
TiVo
Yeah. And then again it kind of just goes out of the business cycle. I saw something, I think it was Raoul Paul, he had that kind of like Nostradamus prediction of the drawdown. Before the final phase up that we played on the show a couple weeks ago and I saw something him talk about. Maybe this is it. I'll pull it up, see if we listen to it. I think he was talking about extending the business cycle due to the debt maturity, which is exactly why the administration wants to lower rates so we can roll over our debt maturity at a lower rate. And he thinks this could extend the business cycle. So this. I don't know if this is the right clip, but let's check it out.
- [36:37]
Guest Expert
Why do we have an elongated business cycle that looks like virtually no other real other time? And I only just found this out. Redoing the work on the everything code recently in 202122 that actually extended the maturity of the debt from four years to five years. So that extension of the maturity of debt has pushed out the business cycle a year. The four year cycle this time around is a five year cycle. We don't know what the next one will be until we see where they all end up getting refinanced. Whether it comes back to four because they managed to get some stuff at the long end, or whether they shorten it because everything's in the short term, we don't know yet. But this one is a five year cycle and this is what it looks like. 5.4 year sine curve, 5.4 years, the exact average weighted maturity of the debt. And it tells us the ism should peak by 2026. We think liquidity probably peaks before that as the rate of change of ism changes and the rate of change of liquidity changes. Our best guess remains well into 2026.
- [37:30]
TiVo
So interesting take, you know, everybody's got one. I'm actually trying to get him on the podcast. I'm pretty close, at least I hope. But all that makes sense. And it goes with kind of that the thought of lower rates, lower rates, lower rates, number one, for affordability for the constituents of the United States, for the housing and car insurance or car loans. Sorry. But again, extending the business cycle, more liquidity, that all affects bitcoin and crypto.
- [37:59]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean, yeah, listen, he's a vet, he's a brilliant mind, he's a veteran to the space. And I think he's someone that every time he speaks, you gotta listen. And it's something unique. I think one of my favorite things about him is that he usually doesn't give those regurgitated takes that you hear and it's like, oh, this is like the hundredth time I've heard that. It's usually like hard data and like stuff like that is just not what you usually see. The cycle is going to be elongated because of. And it's something basic. It's like. No, like that's actually like really insightful.
- [38:32]
My only take here is something that I've noticed that we've had on the podcast guests where they come to us TiVo me, you, Bryce on these podcasts and they a lot of them don't believe in the four year cycle anymore or at least they don't believe in the having cycle. Now some of them are saying is this a having cycle? Is it having related for every four years or is it election related every four years? Or is this something that has to do with interest rates and how they've been cut and hiked and is it related to that? And maybe those play a factor, maybe it's just a coincidence, but a lot of the podcast guests that we've had on for the bulk of this year seem to be leaning away from the idea of a four year cycle which kind of aligns with what he's saying. You know, if it is a five year cycle, I think the one thing that we all agree with is that like there's probably more room to the upside here. So yeah, I mean a lot of.
- [39:23]
Guest Expert
Lot of food for.
- [39:24]
TiVo
Great take. Yeah, it's a great take. The, the elongated business cycle. That lease was backed by hard data. It's definitely being mentioned more. And along with.
- [39:35]
Along with we're coming out of a bare market which I find, you know, that's always a little bit of Monday morning quarterback. At least we're honest here. Nobody else was, nobody was talking about coming out of a bear market three months ago. I promise you that. I didn't see that take once. But hey, you know, it is, I guess it is what it is. But I'm seeing that one all over the timeline now as well. One more positive piece of news that I saw this morning, Walmart friends over at Walmart, they have a one pay cash app that you can use to pay in their stores, kind of like an Apple pay type thing. And it now accepts xrp, Ethereum and Bitcoin. The largest retailer in the US just started accepting crypto payments. I think that's super exciting. Honestly. I might try to figure out how to go do that.
- [40:24]
To make a.
- [40:25]
Brendan
Trip over to my local Walmart sometime and go transact and partake. I think it's pretty cool, man.
- [40:33]
TiVo
No, I mean real world people want real world use cases. I mean there you go. Largest retailer Largest, largest retailer in the U.S. i mean, that's, you know, what else do you want?
- [40:44]
Brendan
Yeah, people are always. The number one analogy I always hear is, oh, well, you can't go to the store and pay for things in crypto. Like, what's the point? I can't go to. I can't go get my groceries and pay for it in bitcoin. Well, now you can. The next time that you're sitting at the table on a holiday and your uncle turns to you and he says that, you say, no, now I can. Let's go do it. Let's go make a trip to Walmart. Let's go buy some groceries. Let's go buy some toilet paper. Let's go buy some, you know, fill in the blank. Let's go buy some Legos and let's go pay for it all in Bitcoin or Ethereum or XRP or whatever you want. And now you're able to do it. So how about that?
- [41:23]
TiVo
So an absolute bullish episode. I mean, we just did 40 minutes, except for the Japan news. We'll call that five minutes. So 35 minutes of just kind of, hey, here's where we stand as a team. We look for volatility as opportunity. We try to educate and make our best decisions because you have to make all your own financial decisions. But we just think there's a lot of opportunity out there if you're gathering the right information. But to end on a positive note as a podcast, and we always say how much we appreciate everybody listening, shout out to our friend Gary. And I can guarantee you that Gary's listening to this episode because Gary is. I guess this might be Spotify wrapped. I see a lot of those going around. Gary is a 0.1 fan. He's in the 99.9 tile of being our number one fan. We are his number one podcast. I saw on the Spotify rap that I think we have over nine. Dude, we have over 900 people. Where we were their number one podcast this year. I think that's pretty cool. Obviously, there's a lot of shows in the world that I'm sure of a ton more. But the fact that people like Gary and everybody who listens tune in multiple times a week, we really, really appreciate it. Gary streamed us for 5463 minutes. Brendan, I did the math. There's 365 days in a year. Gary spent 3.7 of them listening to us. So you, Gary, and thank you to everybody else who just listens. And if we are your top show or even in your top five. Definitely give it a screenshot, send it to us on x, tag us crypto101 pod. I'd love to see as many as we can and engage with them. So thank you, Gary and any thoughts for Gary? Brendan?
- [43:05]
Brendan
No, I was going to say we can't thank you all enough for being able to do all this and the support and this year has been an electric roller coaster up, down, back and forth. But we love being able to interact with you all and chat with you and just to be a part of all this together. You know, we really do love what's happening in the crypto market. And both Bryce and myself, and then all of us, you know, we've been doing this for years. And so like TiVo said, if we do appear in your top five or anywhere on any of these recaps, let us know. Send it, you can repost it, you can tag us in it, you can send it to us. We would love to see that and repost it and just have these and just celebrate with, with all of you. So again, shout out to Gary to everyone else that we were featured and we'd love to see it and hear back from you all. And man, it's been an amazing year so far and we're not done yet, but just. I was getting goosebumps as you were going through this because it's kind of.
- [44:05]
TiVo
Surreal and I know, I know. I was sending it, I sent it to Kevin and I'll send it to Bryce today and I sent it to my mom. I was like, look, mom, isn't this cool? So, yeah, we really appreciate it. And yeah, the ups and downs of this stuff is obviously super fun to cover on the way up, but I think the down, like what we just experienced and kind of. I always say that you need a team if you're going to do this stuff for the long term and be really invested. And you know, between you, Bryce, our team at crypto101, encrypt nation, and then the community of, you know, when we get the live chats going and it's buzzing, I know this one wasn't promoted, we did in the morning, but those, those live chats in the afternoon when they get promoted are super fun. So we really appreciate everybody tuning in today. Thank you guys so much. If you're new here, bottom right, hit the subscribe button and check out our links. If you want to get more involved, we really appreciate it. It is Thursday. We hope you have a great weekend and we will be back next week to keep you all updated on the crypto markets. Thank you all so very much and we'll talk to you soon.
- [45:14]
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