← CRYPTO 101
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- [00:00]
TiVo
Foreign.
- [00:10]
Brendan
Welcome back to the Crypto 101 rundown presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. Man, we're coming in hot here. December is coming to a close. It's almost the end of the year and there's still a lot to talk about. But just real quick before we begin. So this year has been a wild one and we've seen a lot of comments and questions and concerns and excitement and we've seen all the different emotions over the course of this year. But as we're beginning to come to a close, we're looking back and saying, number one, this year's flown by. But number two, it's been a roller coaster. I mean, we started the year off with bitcoin hitting new all time highs, most cryptos hitting new all time highs. And then we had the tariff crash, the first Black Swan event. Then we came in and we rallied off those bitcoin hit new all time highs afterwards. And then we saw the largest liquidation event ever in crypto history. And then we came back down and that's what we're kind of in now. But we've been at this unique point where we are at the highs. Then we saw a Black Swan and we went back to the highs and another Black Swan and we're going back and forth and back and forth. However, despite all of that, what we've seen is so much growth. I'm talking about growth from the technicals, the fundamentals, the on chain data adoption, you name it. There has been so much happening in the background, and that's one of our favorite reasons about why we do the rundown in the first place, is that we love to just go get all of the data from the, from the technicals on the charts to the fundamentals in the news, gather it all and bring it to you all completely for free in under an hour's time. So if you do like it, we have a lot to talk about in today's episode. But if you do like it, hit the like and subscribe button. If you are on one of these other platforms like Apple podcasts or Spotify or Audible or Iheart or anywhere else, and you want to see the visuals that we're going to have on screen here, because we're going to have lots of charts and articles and tweets and other things, you need to head over to our YouTube channel. That's where we have all the graphics and visuals. It's the Crypto 101 podcast on YouTube. And without further ado, I mean, TiVo what a year, man. I know this isn't our last rundown of the year but. But we're getting to it.
- [02:21]
TiVo
Yeah, an exciting time of the year as we wrap things up and you know, again we've been kind of navigating the, the nasty price action recently dumped down to 80 but you know, steady here at 90. We're going to bring up the charts in a second and we've, I mean just again the fundamentals of the news flow just keeps being positive. So again we try to shoot it as straight as we can here but we got a lot of fun things to talk about revealing kind of who is buying this dip at the 80k that kind of propped us maybe back up to 90 with some positive news flows. We got stuff to share you that, that would, there's definitely one that's pretty surprising. I'm excited to talk about, but we'll hand it off to you and we'll start with the charts and then dive into to the rest of it.
- [02:59]
Brendan
Yeah, I mean if we take a look at the charts here, this is that back and forth, I mean, let's just recap it. This is that back and forth that we've been talking about over the course of this year. You know, end of last year we shot up, started this year at the highs. We came back in, came back to the highs and now we're coming back in and I think there's some solid evidence here, TiVo, that we're seeing some break in short term structure, especially from the Bears. Now what do I mean by that? Well, if you look at what we've done off the highs, bitcoin, it kind of hit the all time high, then came in and what we've seen since then is just lower highs and lower lows on bitcoin pushing down until the last couple of weeks. Really around the time December started, we started to see a shift in the short term structure. So there's two things I want you to consider. One, kind of the consistent lower highs and lower lows that bitcoin had been making. And number two, the 20 day moving average. Let's start with point number one first. Well, we've seen these lower highs and lower lows happening with bitcoin kind of continually depreciating over the last two to three months. But the, the shift here that's happening is that instead of kind of seeing lower highs and lower lows, we're seeing something a little bit different now where bitcoin is kind of, you know, rejected here, fell down and then we rose back up to the same resistance level. So not a lower point, the same resistance. And we came to a higher low and we came back up to the same resistance and then it looks like we're trying to put in another higher low after that. So I'm looking at this and saying, okay, well, the bulls are at least seeing a climbing level of support. The bears are not really able to advance. They're only holding the line at around 93K. And this is a little bit of different price action from what we've seen over the last two, two and a half months or so. The second one is going to be that 20 day moving average.
- [04:47]
TiVo
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- [06:01]
Brendan
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- [07:01]
TiVo
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- [09:47]
Brendan
Time that we have seen the 20 day moving average fail was on a one singular fake out. Other than that, you see a quick rejection. Ever since the all time high you see a rejection of that blue line or that 20 day moving average right here and then right here and then right here and then again here in here. And now we're starting to get above it and we're actually closing for the most part above it again. The only exception for that rule was right around the end of October where we broke up, spent maybe two days above it and immediately it was followed by a huge rejection where bitcoin came immediately back below it lower high into more downside kind of continuation. So we had that one little fake out over in here and again this is looking different from that. We got above that 20 day moving average however we rejected but we kind of came back to it and now what we're seeing is that the bulk of these buyers in here are actually around or above the 20 day moving average. And we're not just kind of falling beneath it, immediately rejecting it and seeing more downside continuation. We're kind of seeing the opposite where we're breaking above it and finding support around it. And again, little bit, it's a little bit of a shift. So we're not only seeing kind of higher lows, distant highs above the 20 day moving average. I'd say all those things are feeding into this idea that short term bearish structure is showing some cracks. Now, does this mean that the bear market is over? That the whole bearish trend is over? That we found the bottom? We reversed all that. Not necessarily right. I say that we're finding cracks in the bearish trend and we're finding cracks in the bearish structure. And I use those words very specifically because cracks are not necessarily saying everything's going to come crumbling down. But it looks good. It does. Especially when you compile this with a lot of the other data that we've looked at so far in recent weeks. I mean, on these rundowns with me and you and Brian, some of the other analysts on the team, three things stand out to me in terms of much more large structure. It's that one day rsi. I mean that's, it's at the lowest level that we've seen since August of 2023. That is the first pullback after the market kind of rallied off those macro lows after the last bear market cycle. So the one day RSI at the lowest level that we've seen since August of 2023, the one, the one week RSI at the lowest levels that we've seen since around December of 2022, which was the absolute bottom period of the market after the Terra Luna and FTX crash, then you have the, the Fear and Greed index at the lowest levels. I mean at a 10 or lower, it's just crazy. And we've only ever seen a 10 or lower at historic bottoming events. Things like the tariff crash in the bottom of that, the bottom of COVID the bottom of 2022, the bottom of like the 2018 market cycle. A lot of those significant and key events are really some of the only times that we've seen the Fear and greed index get that low. And so when you look and you start piecing all this data together again, I think you're starting to see some cracks in the bearish argument that has been so strong for a while now. One of the things that we've also talked about TiVo and then we're going to switch it up is that if you look at bitcoin, like Bitcoin's been in this quote unquote bear market for a couple of months. You kind of seen lower highs and lower lows really since October for bitcoin, but it was pretty stagnant since June and July, mostly like July. Altcoins have been a different story. Altcoins have been down trending for almost six months now. You go and you look at, I think the average altcoin, like let's just use one that, I don't know, like a random one. Right. Let's just look at chain link. This thing kind of found its top around August and ever since then it's been down, trending for all of August, September, October, November, now December. And you go and you look at a lot of these other altcoins, aerodrome one that we like a lot, same story. You could go and look at Sui, same story, except this one actually topped out in July. And so altcoins have been trending down for months and we're, there's a good chance we're seeing some signs of exhaustion from the bears. Not entirely. Right. Because I think the two main things that we need to see is a higher swing low on this relative strength index on that one day time frame which we haven't quite seen yet. And we need to see bitcoin trading more aggressively over that 20 and 50 day moving average and have that golden cross happen where the 20 day crosses upwards over the 50 day moving average. And if we can start seeing all of those things with higher highs that would really kind of solidify the idea of a bottom. But we are seeing cracks in a lot of the bearish structure that we're seeing. And again it's making me want to get a little bit more excited down here. We're not like fully convinced yet, but it's enough for me to say like, hey, like I'm okay kind of DCA on bitcoin, especially a lot of these altcoins that have already been getting suppressed and depreciating for months and months now. You know, now that we're starting to see some cracks, am I okay taking some stabs at the stuff? I am, I'm still being careful. But I mean, listen, I like what I'm seeing and obviously as we're going to talk about with a lot of the fundamentals, we're seeing good stuff happen over there as well.
- [15:01]
TiVo
Yeah, there was, I'm going to play a clip later in the show. I think it might be a quote that's in that clip specifically. It was like everybody likes buying crypto at the all time highs. They don't like it, they don't like buying the dips. So certainly we're certainly in a dip and you're trying to parse through all the information, trying to figure out, you know, who's DCA ing in and then that's kind of going to transition us into, into our next topic. So obviously there's the classic Michael Sailor is buying some bitcoin this week. A lot of FUD around mstr. I think we're gonna have a second show later in the week on Friday. And I'm gonna, There was a clip I saw. We couldn't fit it into the rundown today, but I'll bring it on Friday. Kind of breaking down the MSTR FUD, but they bought another 10,624 Bitcoin. Not surprising. And then I, I found a clip here. So our first clip of the day is going to be Larry Fink, friend of the program, of course, talking about kind of, he's seeing sovereign wealth funds buying the dip. He didn't reveal a name, but again, through the IBIT, the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, a lot of the, you know, a lot of people use it from, you know, retail all the way to sovereign wealth fund. But I think, and I have a, we'll keep moving on after listening to the clip. But we're, we think we know, we think we know who it is. But let's listen to Larry Fink.
- [16:19]
Guest Analyst
From. We're seeing more and more legitimate, long only investors investing in it. There was an article about a foundation endowment just bought a lot of ibit. But I can tell you there are a number of sovereign funds that are standing by. They're adding incrementally at 120, 100. I know they bought more in the 80s. Right, that's fine. And they're, they're establishing a longer position. And then you own it over years. This is not a trade. You own it for a purpose from worse.
- [16:53]
TiVo
So then you know, which, which sovereign wealth fund is it? Well, we all know that the UAE has been buying some bitcoin. And then they came out with kind of a quote. They're, they're saying bitcoin's a key pillar of the future of finance, not just a crypto assets. So again, you don't have access to necessarily their wallets to see, see if, or what they're buying or how much of it. But again, just the chatter around it kind of, kind of leads me to believe if I was a betting man, that maybe the UAE, you know, nibbled at that $80,000 level.
- [17:24]
Brendan
Yeah. I mean, and that's the thing is like they're not the only ones interested in buying down here. We've seen a lot of these little pockets of like, hey, there's, there's big buyers out there and we've seen some whale orders. And one of the cool things that you actually highlighted to me this week was that it's not just bitcoin. Like we're seeing this happen on a lot of other places. Significantly. We're going to talk about Ethereum here, spoiler alert in just a second. But looking at some of those Solana and XRP ETF inflows has been just astonishing. Like weeks and weeks of consistent inflows without a day of outflows. It's crazy. And a lot of this is happening, it's happening in a downtrend. I mean, these things are depreciating by 10, 20, 30% and they're continuing to have weeks on weeks at a time of net inflows, which is super impressive.
- [18:19]
TiVo
Yeah, again, it's, it's kind of, you know, retail or people get scared. We cans get shaken out when price goes down. And yeah, there's people with conviction. And again, with the ETF flows, you don't necessarily know who's buying it unless it's Tom Lee, because of course, Tom Lee just continues to buy the dip and that we're referring to bit mine. The dat buys another 138,452eth worth 435 million. So, again, pretty, pretty impressive dip buying continuing from Tom Lee. But I think, I think we know it's again, the Michael Sailors and the Tom Lees. It's basically a weekly, you know, set it and forget it buy. I think when the price goes down, especially for Tom Lee, because they're a little bit newer on the strategy, they've definitely upped their increments as much as they can when the, when the price has gone down. But I found this clip that I thought was interesting. I'm kind of just a. I kind of labeled as just traditional tradfis eyeing the dip as well. I thought this was really well said. We kind of talked about this. When price is going up and it's flying higher at a ridiculous weight. Right rate. Bitcoin and crypto is the A block. And then when it's going down and it's flying lower at a ridiculous, ridiculous rate, bitcoin and crypto is also the A block, you know, saying, oh, it's a. The trade's over, it's devastating, everybody's losing. I feel like that kind of calmed down the last week and I, I caught this. This was like, I don't know, this may be like a C block or is just talking about strategy. They're trying to keep bashing strategy. And then, you know, this, this panelist kind of spun it into, you know, getting away from talking about strategy and even Bitcoin and went into Ethereum. So let's take a look. I thought it was an interesting kind of buy the dip conversation.
- [20:02]
Guest Analyst
I think MicroStrategy has a complicated balance sheet and so I've just, I've never owned it. I think BMNR from a treasure, Ethereum treasury, they have a clean balance sheet. Obviously they're issuing shares but they're not doing preferred preferreds or converts. And so I think that this is an opportunity. I bought Ethereum or Ethereum last week. I just think especially with Ethereum which is down quite a bit off its highs, this is when you add to these positions, right, was to buy low, sell high. But most people feel comfortable buying crypto at the all time highs, not when there's actually an event occurring. Whether MSCI fleshes out, I have no idea. You're telling people to buy strategy, no Etherium. I was like, I don't understand. MicroStrategy's balance sheet is way too complicated for me to parse through. I've decided to play it with Ethereum.
- [20:45]
TiVo
And I bet I didn't go to you on it because I didn't know what else there is to say on it.
- [20:49]
Guest Analyst
No, I mean what else is there to say? Let me give you something else. There's 15 buys on the stock. There's three holds, there's one sell. The 12 month price target for this stock that trades 182 right now is $473. That's ridiculous.
- [21:06]
TiVo
So two things there quickly on the back end there. Just the Street's getting really, really negative on mstr. It started trading under its nav value. We covered that. I again I'm kind of with her. Like I'm not smart enough to go through the balance sheet and kind of figure this out. Matt Hogan is. Matt Hogan had a clip. I'm gonna pull that for Friday to kind of talk about MSTR a little more. But let's table that for now. Just the Street's getting a little bearish on mstr. But again, I think if the price action flips and we wake up, you know, next week or two weeks and Bitcoin's back to 110, I think MSTR rockets right up with that. Right. Because of the way it's built with its leverage and people are shorting it and then they're longing it, it's, it's a, it's turned into more of a financial instrument than, than, than a pure bitcoin play. And that, that's just my opinion. That's just my opinion. But I think I thought it was really interesting, the Ethereum dip conversation because again, everybody knows Tom Lee of course, friend of the show, but it's like, you know, she's a great investor, I've seen her on tv but you know, she's definitely not, she doesn't get headlines like Tom Lee does when she says she's buying the dip or buying Bit Mine or buying Ethereum. And I think that's an interesting kind of just gauge for Tradfi in general. It's okay. Obviously Larry Fink's been talking about tokenization, Solana, Ethereum have kind of taken the forefront of the altcoins and like where are we going to build the financial system on top of Jamie? Crypto diamond of course is talking about it as well. And so I think when you start hearing some other, you know, talking heads or traders that don't have the notoriety that a Tom Lee or you know, Michael Saylor does when they talk about buying the dip with these DATs, it's an interesting kind of pulse of the industry.
- [22:44]
Brendan
Yet. No, you're right. And if you look at the way that Ethereum's been performing, Erium has actually been outperforming bitcoin off of the lows. ETH's up about 21% from its lows on November 21, whereas Bitcoin's up about 14% off of its lows from November 21. So Ethereum like substantially outperforming bitcoin off of the lows. And I think when we're talking about these, these treasury plays, right, these DATs, those are almost always going to be a leveraged play on whatever asset they are accumulating. Right? So in a bull market they tend to move up more than the underlying assets. That's kind of the whole point is that they are a leveraged play to, to run these things. So in a bull market they might see more upside, but in a bear market they might see more downside. And that's just the way that this goes. So when you look at Bit mine and you look at Microstrategy and you look at a lot of these companies, they tend to see more volatility in whatever direction the market's heading. Obviously for the last couple months it's been bearish and since then they have been like just depreciating at a, at a higher rate. I think that if the markets do rally and we do go back to all time highs, they probably have a glorious rebound and you probably see that reflected I would kind of agree with them in the sense that microstrategies entire, no pun intended, their entire strategy has become more complicated over I would say the last year or so. Right. They started out from just being kind of a bitcoin play. Now they're doing all these different kinds of like stock issuance. They have all these different products, like high yield products. Now they're saying, hey, we might need to. There's that whole like rumor of oh, they might need to sell bitcoin to actually support these new yield products and high income stuff. And I think that there is a little bit of confusion as to like what goes on. And I don't even think confusion is the right word. It's just they have gotten more complex in nature which is probably just the natural evolution of any company is that you get more products, you get more complex, you add things like that's just the way it goes. Whereas people do kind of look at bit mine as like a simpler. It's like, hey, they don't have all the bells and whistles, but they kind of do what the treasury is expected to do. And it's ran by someone that is, I would say equally as competent as Michael Sailor. Super competent individual. Like he knows what he's doing. He clearly does. If you kind of look at his, the track record so far and I'd say kind of Tom Lee's in the same boat. So, you know, listen, good things to say about both of them. They're both trying to push the crypto space. They both believe in crypto long term. And of the people that are upset that they've been seeing some extra downside, that's just because they always move at a higher volatility rate depending on where the market's headed both up and down.
- [25:29]
TiVo
So yeah, and again, when we broaden the conversation to bitcoin and Ethereum and this tokenization effort, you know, Jamie Crypto diamond is talking about the tokenization. Larry think was a leader talking about tokenization and how it could be built on Ethereum. And I always asked myself, Brendan, I was like, well, if Larry think, if Larry Fink's pounding the streets talking about tokenization and IBIT is the most, and I think I've even said this on the program before is like if IBIT is the top revenue maker for BlackRock and they believe in bitcoin as kind of a futuristic gold and offering it to their clients and it's making them a lot of money. And then Larry thinks talking about tokenization and bringing the financial services Industry on chain and it could be done on Ethereum. I'm sitting here, Brandon, I'm like, why is there not an Ethereum etf? It makes no sense. I'm like, it has to, like, for them to believe in these words that they're saying on all these stages and all these speeches. There has to be an Ethereum etf, right?
- [26:33]
Brendan
Yeah. I mean, you would, you would think so, right? And oh, there it is. BlackRock's iShares just filed for a staked Ethereum ETF. And I think that's the key, right? That's the big thing that everyone's looking for is because we have a lot of Ethereum ETFs already out there, but it's like, are they going to be staking ETFs? Because Solana already has staking ETFs, right. So everyone's like, well, Solana has one. Why can't Ethereum? And I think the SEC looked at it and they're like, oh, yeah, you're probably right. And so this is kind of the next stage is that we probably see more Ethereum staking ETFs from all the big players. All of them.
- [27:13]
TiVo
Yeah. And just. But I think it's really important that, that BlackRock has one because again, I know obviously grayscale led the way with the lawsuit, but ever since then it's been the BlackRock, the iShares, you know, the trusted financial services of BlackRock have led, you know, the inflows and the sovereign wealth funds like we just talked about earlier, they trust BlackRock. The liquidity of BlackRock, allowing Ibit, you know, options are crazy volume as well, along with mstr. And I just, just thought, especially the way Larry Fink was talking about tokenization and kind of really leaning towards Ethereum. I was like, man, there has to be something in the pipeline for an Ethereum etf. And so bam, here we go. It's filed. And the fact that it's filed as a staking ET etf, again, all the things that we've covered on this show before of kind of the new age of a dividend could be staking. I think it will take, you know, time, just as all these new ETFs take time for a lot of the large players to dive in. But could it, could Ethereum end up being kind of an aristocrat dividend play for some of the funds that need to buy stocks that have dividends? Will Ethereum maybe one day go into there and just open up its doors to just a flood of Capital. The possibility is now there. If this stake ETF gets approved, obviously the SEC is on board with it. I, I think this is, I think this is big. I really do. Again, we've learned from the Bitcoin ETFs that it takes, it just takes time. But I, I think this is really bullish for Ethereum.
- [28:40]
Brendan
Yeah. And quick clarification. So BlackRock has had an Ethereum spot ETF for about a year and a half almost. I think it came out last July in 2024. But again, the big push is the staking side because that's what hasn't existed. I believe the ticker is ETH A for anybody who is interested. But the, the whole idea here is that like again, the staking side, that's the, the emphasis, that's what we're seeing as like a new kind of factor get thrown into this. Because when Solana's staking ETFs started to come out, it was like, hey, like you're right, TiVo, like this should start being a thing. Especially with all the talk of tokenization and how bullish they are on eth. Like it's only a matter of time until we get these staking ETFs for ETH as well. And that's where it seems like the floodgates have kind of opened.
- [29:28]
TiVo
Yeah. And I just think once it has that staked feature, I just think that's super important because I don't think you get the full fledged investment without the staking. And so yeah, they've had the ETH A. And I know Brian was one somebody on the show that was really tracking the Ethereum ETFs. He really liked watching the inflows and there's been a ton of it as we covered on the show, but. And I wonder if they'll be able if like ETH A will just kind of fold into the new one. They probably have some type of way that they'll do that. I'm sure.
- [29:57]
Brendan
I hope so.
- [29:58]
TiVo
Or at least offer it. Like at least have an offering. But I just think that the full fledged journey of investing in Ethereum without the staking, I think that's so important because again, in this tradfi world there's certain funds that have certain rules. Right. And some of these funds that I think now have might, may have access in the future to Ethereum is the need for a dividend. And I think that's something that'll be interesting. And that's why I was pretty passionate about that take is just, I think Again, Bitcoin has its playbook and Ethereum has its playbook and I just think that the staking part is really something that is needed. And there's been some staking ETFs that have gone live right with Solana, especially Bitwise. And I just thought that, I just thought BlackRock might have jumped on it earlier with Bitwise launching its Solana one and advertising it really hard. I was just, man, I was like, man, where is this Ethereum staking from blackrock? Because I just think it's a big stamp of approval after IBIT has been so successful.
- [30:55]
Brendan
Yeah, no, spot on, man. And I mean speaking of Ethereum related things, there's a pretty large project for the tokenization space, which is what we've been talking about, called Ondo. And they were in a battle with the SEC for what over a year now and it is officially coming to a close now. The crazy thing about this, they even talk about it in this post from, from Cryptos R Us. Shout out to George. We should try to get George on sometime. Now that I'm thinking about. I know he's, he's a big guy and he's got a lot going on.
- [31:28]
TiVo
But Legend of the Game.
- [31:30]
Brendan
Legend, Legend. But you know, he was talking about this and he's saying like when this all happened it was kind of like without any reason according to Ando, they're like, hey, there's no reason here. And I was doing digging on this as well and it was kind of just the SEC coming in and being like, yeah, well we, we want to see whether these tokenized assets are actually unregistered securities and like they could be and maybe they fall someone somewhere like somewhere else and maybe you're not labeling them. Right. So we're going to get into a lawsuit and we're going to probe you and we're going to come in and see. And it was just like what is going on? And obviously to no one's surprise, they come out now and there's nothing there. Right? It's closed. Nothing went on. They were found of nothing, doing nothing wrong. And there's just so many of these, there were so many targeted attacks on the crypto market and on some of the biggest infrastructure because when you look at Ando, they are one of the biggest terms of infrastructure and kind of creators of tokenization and of real world assets. So when they go after stablecoins and they go after tokenization and they go after different forms of infrastructure, that's going to be one of the most damaging things to the crypto market. So this is a huge win. It's a huge win for tokenization, it's a huge win for Defi. It's a huge win for crypto as a whole. Again, like we are trending in the right direction when we're seeing stuff like this happen. And I think that it's super obvious, more so than now, that crypto is kind of flipping and doing a 180 and they want to be bullish on this stuff for at least the next several years. And a lot of the actors who wanted to prevent this from happening, they're gone, they're out. And now the people who are in, they want it to succeed and they want it to thrive.
- [33:23]
TiVo
Yeah, speaking of thriving, I agree with everything you said. I was just getting some alerts on my phone. The markets are looking pretty tasty right now. A nice little bump for the, for the crypto Bros. And maybe that's because of all the bullish news that we're covering, because it doesn't just stop there. Brendan PNC bank partners with Coinbase to offer direct Bitcoin trading for clients. This is really interesting because you don't think of PNC as like an exchange, right? And obviously custody banks are probably going to want to get into custody, just like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, all the old, you know, traditional, you know, big boys on Wall Street. But I think PNC bank is interesting because it's a different level of bank. You know, PNC bank is kind, I don't want to say it's a local because obviously it's a huge kind of chain, like a national chain, but it is one of those banks that, you know, you can see in your neighborhood and you can go in and talk to the clerk and use the atm. Whereas like, you know, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, that's not, that's not their, their level up. Right. They're an investment type bank. So I thought this was really interesting. It's the first bank to market such an offering among the major US Banks.
- [34:33]
Brendan
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TiVo
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Brendan
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TiVo
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Brendan
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TiVo
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Brendan
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- [35:03]
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- [35:49]
Brendan
Yeah, 100%. And like the article says, they're the first bank to market such an offering among like all the major US banks. So again, this is a step in the right direction. When we say what is the future going to look like? Like it, it's, it's obvious, it's right in front of our face. Right. It's all unraveling. Don't overthink it. Don't try to overplay it either. It's just like all the big asset managers, they're filing for new crypto ETFs, they're accepting crypto. They are literally going on air and saying, we're so bullish on this and we have some cool clips that we'll show everyone and kind of continue to show you all. But just don't overthink it. It doesn't have to be as complicated as you maybe think that it needs to be.
- [36:32]
TiVo
Yeah, this is one of those pieces of news and like most of the stuff that we talk about every week on this stuff is pieces of news that I really think unless you're listening to the show or you're on crypto Twitter or you're really into the space, like you have no idea. Like if I go and talk to, you know, maybe some friends or my parents, like they have no idea. All this stuff that's being done under the hood of this industry moving towards kind of bringing the financial markets on chain, which is what SEC chair Paul Atkins said. You pulled a clip here that's going to have some audio. So we're going to play that. It's. How long is this, Brendan?
- [37:05]
Guest Analyst
About.
- [37:05]
TiVo
Oh, it's long. It's about three minutes. So let's, let's, let's jump in and let Paul talk to us. But we'll probably cut it a little shorter, we'll jump around. But basically kind of building off the point of like, hey, PNC Bank, Ethereum, ETFs, you know, bit mine, all that stuff. Like your average person doesn't know any of that. But, but that is evidence that's leading towards this. All US markets will be on chain within two years, which is what Paul Atkins is talking about here. So let's, let's take a listen.
- [37:32]
Guest Analyst
Tokenization is the idea of using then smart contracts or you know, tokens on chain to be able to, that represent say underlying security. So then that tokenized security is a security and would be subject to SEC rules by law. But the idea is that it's, if it's on chain, on a blockchain, then there's much more transparency as to where it is. Right now there's a bit of opacity as to who owns what and where. The company usually doesn't even know where its shareholder, who its shareholders are and where the shareholders reside, where the shares reside. So tokenization has the benefit of potentially having instead of t +1 now trade date +1 for clearance and settlement, the prospect of maybe t0 now depending on the instrument. And we have to think about netting and all sorts of other things with respect to some instruments. But in principle the idea of on chain, delivery versus payment and receipt versus payments dvp, RVP on chain is a prospect of de risking the markets, making them much more transparent. And then sure, as far as clearance and settlement, because it's always that the gap between clearance and settlement and then delivery and payment is the real, introduces risk into the system. Do you?
- [39:14]
TiVo
Yeah, I mean I know if, you know, if I use one of my old brokerages and, and you make a trade, I mean the money, you know, shows up in your account but it's unsettled funds and it could be unsettled funds for a day or two and then you can trade your unsettled funds. But if you do, you can't, you can't be as nimble. So like if you wanted to, I just throwing out something. If you wanted to sell Amazon to go buy Uber, you can do that on that day, but then you can't sell those Uber shares for pretty big penalty because it's unsettled shares. Again, just talking about moving, making markets faster. It's something that you know, we've been talking about for years is just the financial system the banking system, it's archaic, you know, I know you have some real estate. I. I have some real estate. It's like the wire transfer process. You're transferring tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars, and you go to your bank and you give them the wire instructions, and then the money goes shoop out of your account. And then they're like. I'm like, okay, did it get there? They're like, we'll let you know in two days. I'm like, what do you mean you're going to let me know in two days? I just.
- [40:14]
Brendan
2025.
- [40:15]
TiVo
It's 20. Brennan, it's 2025. I just sent $100,000. What do you mean you're going to let me know in two days?
- [40:22]
Brendan
Yeah.
- [40:24]
TiVo
You know, I just went through that process recently. It blew my mind. I'm like, I went through all this process, get the wiring done, and then, like, I'm like, okay, it's out of my account. Can you confirm that you have receipt? And they're like, oh, we'll let you know in two days. What?
- [40:37]
Brendan
Yeah, Isn't it crazy how that works? It's like, it's 2025. You sent them, like, hundred, a hundred thousand or hundreds of thousands, and all this money's in limbo. And they're like, oh, it'll take a couple days. It's like, what, in what world does anything today take a couple days? That isn't like, physically being shipped? Like, what electronic should ever take that long? And it doesn't make sense. And that's why we're seeing this whole revolution in the first place, is because this needs to change. And I mean, listen, it's what it's like you said as well, there's more transparency, there's more efficiency. There's a lot of problems that it solves. Not to mention it can create better liquidity and even give people more access to the market because it can be even more fractionalized. And at the same time, you have these things which could very well turn 24 7, which it already seems we're kind of moving in that direction in the first place. So if you're not excited, get excited, because there's a lot more to come.
- [41:30]
TiVo
Yeah, and I mean, it was a great point, but let's. Let's tie a bow on it. Like that. That's the SEC chair. Like, that's the guy making the decisions and building the guardrails. So again, you know, in. In theory, he's gonna be in that chair, you know, in that seat for the next couple years. And there's a lot of, you know, regulation coming down the pipeline that people want for the guardrails for exactly what he's saying. So, like, if you can kind of piece the puzzle together, if you want to, you know, play detective and get out your magnifying glass, you know, and he took.
- [42:00]
Brendan
Keep in mind, he's the guy who took Gary Gensler his job. He's the new Gary Gensler.
- [42:06]
TiVo
Remember how much fun we used to have with the. The Gary Gensler days? I kind of. I do kind of miss him. I think we said that on the show before.
- [42:14]
Brendan
I missed the memes.
- [42:16]
TiVo
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We missed the memes one more time.
- [42:22]
Wow.
- [42:23]
Guest Analyst
I didn't know he was that unpopular.
- [42:27]
TiVo
Let me say it again.
- [42:29]
On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler.
- [42:40]
Oh, man.
- [42:41]
Guest Analyst
Had to.
- [42:41]
TiVo
Had to. Just. Just for old time's sake. Too much fun. Too much fun.
- [42:45]
Brendan
The memes are too good.
- [42:47]
TiVo
Yeah. Those are our favorite clip for a while. But let's tie a bow on the episode with rate cuts. It is Tuesday. You might be listening to this on Tuesday, you might be listening this on Wednesday. But Wednesday, December 10, is Fed Ray. Cute Fed Rate Cut Day. Chairman Powell announced the decision and have one of his famous press conferences. We've done this live, actually, the last couple times. I am sad to announce that we will not be able to do it live. We have some. Some work we got to get done, and it's just obviously a busy end of the year, so I'm not gonna be able to do it live. But I do promise, if it's something we're going to tee up what we think is going to happen, if there is any crazy surprise, we will get a quick, you know, episode out to everybody. But according to Polymarket, there's a 94 chance. 94 chance that the Fed will cut. So that'll be our third cut of the year, I believe, right?
- [43:40]
Brendan
Yeah.
- [43:41]
TiVo
In 2025. And so, you know, I. I think we've kind of teed this up the last couple times that he's been here. You know, Poly Market has led us the right way so far. Obviously, you know, anything could happen, but. And then the press conference that Fed Chair Powell does and taking questions moves the market more than sometimes. The decision. So that's going to be tomorrow will be really interesting to see. But, Brendan, what are you looking out for?
- [44:09]
Brendan
You know what I'm looking out for? I'm getting a little bit of PTSD from last December when we were in a very similar situation TiVo. And we got. I mean, it was like a brick hitting you in the face. We were in a very similar spot last December, and things didn't go as planned. And for whatever reason, on the last, you know, last December's call, you know, at one point, hikes started coming up in conversation. And so I'm getting a little bit of PTSD saying, hey, everything's looking a little too hunky dory. We're getting three cuts all of a sudden now, you know, or we're getting our third cut. Everyone's saying it's guaranteed. They're saying it's priced in. I'm a little bit nervous again. I'm not trying to, you know, make anything happen here, but knock on wood, we get it. But again, last December, man, we got thrown for such a loop. Makes me a little bit nervous this time around because that hurt the market bad. At one point, you mentioned the idea of hiking and hawkishness and all these other things, and we're in a much different spot now, and I understand that. But cautiously optimistic going into this thing, you know, I was looking at like, do I want to take some. Like, do I want to take some off the table here just until tomorrow happens? Because who knows what he's going to say. Even if we do cut, what is he going to say after that? And I think that's. You're right. Like, that's what really needs to be studied. I think tomorrow it looks as if we're going to almost certainly get a rate cut. I hope we do. But what's he going to say after that? And I think that is what is going to potentially rock the market.
- [45:45]
TiVo
Yeah.
- [45:45]
Brendan
Depending on what words come out of his mouth. And then the other thing is that as we look in the next year, I mean, obviously there's. There's forecasted to be more rate cuts next year. And I saw Trump say that it is a requirement. Yeah. Here we have it on the screen. He says it's in a requirement for the next Fed chair to do an immediate rate cuts. So immediate rate cuts is a requirement for the next Fed chair, which, again, if you're a fan of crypto, you like that, that's what you want to see.
- [46:17]
Could Jay Powell be looking at that and saying, well, if I know there's going to be a bunch more cuts, maybe I need to not cut. Like, maybe that's something that goes on in his head where he's saying, I know that the next Fed chair is going to go on a ton of rate cuts. I know he always says, oh, he's, he's data dependent. But like, we know that that hasn't always been the case. Right? I mean, sometimes he's forward looking, sometimes he's backward looking and it's. Who knows?
- [46:41]
TiVo
Yeah, we had, we had a tough time last year. I remember me and you especially, I know I had some, you know, some, some, some gambling type, some option trades going in the air, trying to. It was a great year. We had a great year. And so I was playing, I had a play. I was, I was on. And yeah, Pal, Pal did me dirty last year. So I agree with you. It's something that we need to be monitoring, we need to watch out for. And just to kind of build on your thought is, is I wonder if tomorrow it gets, you know, kind of the end of pal's terms coming to a close. And we've talked about this before. Is, is this getting to the point where it might get kind of a little political in a way for Pal just to kind of on his way out and you. It seems like, you know, sadly, the Fed should not, not be this way, but it seems like it's. The Fed has gotten more political, you know, definitely in the last year, if not more of just kind of picking sides. Right. And that's not what the Fed should be doing, but for the betterment of, I guess, how he wants to be looked in the eyes of history slash the future as well of, of what's his next career path and who's gonna hire him to speak and do this and do that. Like you're picking sides politically, it feels like. And so it is going to be a fascinating, I think, I think there's going to be a cut. I think you have to cut just because of the committee. You know, one, you know, the Fed chair is, is the most powerful position on that committee. But, you know, I don't think you can veer too far off, I guess, unless the committee's truly split, then, I don't know, it's something to watch. I just think, I think his press conference is where he, he gets, you know, kind of personal and says kind of more what's in, in his thoughts and, and you know, he's, he, he's a person too, so it'll be interesting to see if the human element sneaks into it. But again, we, you know, anything could happen. But just, just like a lot of the volatility that we've seen, again, I think you got to look through if it goes upgrade, if it goes down, you know, That's. That. That stinks. But you know, you got to be smart, right? You gotta, you gotta plan your trades and trade your plans, just like Bryce has taught us, you know, do not get silly with leverage, especially if you don't know what you're doing. You know, that's where you got to educate it. If you're sitting in spot, you know, you're going to be fine through it, through a fed decision. So not, not too stressed about that. But Brendan, breaking news. Bitcoin 93K. Let's end the show. Pull up the charts one more time if you can pull them up. Let's just click through. Let's go on a one day. Let's show people some, some of the, some of the bullish momentum before we sign off because things are, things are trending up.
- [49:11]
Coinbase up 3%. Bit Mine up 5%. I see. Ethereum up 5%. Salon up 5%. Pengu up 8%. Pudgy Penguin, unbelievable.
- [49:22]
Brendan
It is a sea of green here on the watch list. On the look at Zcash up another 10%. Zcash revival, question mark.
- [49:30]
But no, you're right. I mean, dude, things are skyrocketing. Bitcoin at 93,100. It goes back to our original point, Teva. We're seeing cracks in the bearish structure. Yes, bearish argument. The bearish armor itself. We're seeing cracks in it, which is what we want to see. We want to see the bears lose. I don't know about all of you, actually, not all of us. There is one person in here on a pretty routine basis.
- [49:54]
TiVo
Oh, inverted investing. Inverted investing.
- [49:57]
Brendan
I don't think I see him in here today.
- [50:00]
TiVo
We haven't heard from him in like a year, legitimately. And then he commented when bitcoin came down to 80k, I'm sure he had a saved on one of his tabs and made sure to. I don't know what, I guess it's a victory lap for him. I don't know. He's been wrong for. He's been wrong for about two, three years now. So, yeah, we love him, but we do love inverted investing.
- [50:19]
Brendan
We, we want them on our team.
- [50:22]
On the live.
- [50:23]
TiVo
We want them on the live as well.
- [50:24]
Brendan
We want them on all of it. Come on the live. Come to the bulls. The bulls want you. We've refound. Rebounded $13,000 since the lows. Join the bullish team. It's the dip. Buy the dip. The large, the. Excuse me. The long term trend is your friend, but man, we want all of you on our team. Jamie Dimon came on our team. You know, he capitulated. A lot of people have. So come join us. But man, I think that's it. TiVo.
- [50:52]
TiVo
Yeah. And we'll finish it off with who is on our team. I mean honestly, we jumped on kind of last minute. We didn't promote this one. We'll be doing one Friday with Brian and Joe that we will promote. Hopefully the the chat gets raucous, but it was a good one today. We got we had Debbie chime in. Grant was here, JD was here. Kevin from the UK across the pond first live. He's a regular listener and if you thought that was the only person from from the uk, that's not the case because LJ was here first time as well that he caught a live. Thank you guys for listening all the way across the pond. JD was here as well along with many others. We really appreciate everybody joining in on the live on YouTube. We appreciate everybody listening to the audio as well. We hope you guys enjoyed the show. Again, fundamentally bullish price action. Specifically today looking bullish. The rate cuts are going to happen this week. We are going to recap that with you on Friday. Unless there's some crazy emergency, we'll hop back on and break it down for you guys. We really appreciate everybody listening and hope they have a great rest of your day. But that's it for now. So bye bye everybody. Have a good one.
- [52:06]
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