CRYPTO 101 - Ep. 664: The Future of Crypto ETFs & Top Predictions for the Rest of the Year with Bitwise's Matt Hogan
Release Date: July 8, 2025
In episode 664 of the "CRYPTO 101" podcast, hosts Bryce Paul and Brendan Viehman welcome Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, to discuss the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), institutional adoption, and Matt's top predictions for the remainder of the year. This detailed summary captures the essential points, insights, and conclusions from their engaging conversation.
Introduction
The episode kicks off with hosts Bryce and Brendan expressing their excitement about welcoming Matt Hogan back to the podcast. Brendan remarks, “Maybe I'm biased. I don't even know if I'm allowed to say this,” highlighting Matt as one of their favorite guests [02:08].
Crypto ETFs: A Game Changer
FHFA Guidance on Crypto in Mortgage Qualifications
Bryce brings up a significant development where the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced that individuals can use crypto holdings in mortgage qualifications. Matt responds, “It's a win,” emphasizing that this moves Bitcoin into the "big leagues" and signifies acceptance by major financial institutions [03:27]. He explains, “From a market structure perspective, it does mean less selling by whales who don't need to access their money” [03:27].
Department of Labor and 401ks
Bryce references Matt’s prediction about the Department of Labor relaxing guidance to allow crypto in 401k plans. Matt confirms this, stating, “If 1 or 2 or 5% of that goes into bitcoin goes into crypto, that's going to reduce volatility, it's going to further legitimize the asset class” [05:20]. He underscores the potential of channeling trillions into the crypto market, which could significantly boost market capitalization [08:35].
Institutional Embrace of Crypto
Bitwise’s Product Launches and Institutional Engagement
Matt outlines Bitwise’s advancements, including launching new ETFs like Bitcoin and Treasury ETFs, and exploring products such as Solana staking ETFs [10:22]. He discusses engaging with major wealth platforms, noting a shift from 20% to 80% openness towards crypto among top wealth managers in six months [12:08].
Wall Street Integration
Highlighting institutional momentum, Matt mentions that major Wall Street firms like JP Morgan are entering the crypto space with initiatives like launching stablecoins and offering crypto trading services [13:56]. He cites Rick Edelman, a prominent investment advisor, who publicly advocated for a 40% allocation in crypto for growth-minded portfolios, demonstrating growing confidence in crypto investments [14:41].
Bitcoin ETFs: Performance and Future Projections
Success of Bitcoin ETFs
Matt discusses the remarkable success of Bitcoin ETFs, noting they are the most successful ETF launch ever with $37 billion in inflows in the first year and expectations to reach $40 billion by year-end [18:10]. He draws parallels to Gold ETFs, predicting sustained inflows as investor comfort with crypto grows [19:53].
Sustainability of ETF Flows
When asked about the sustainability of current ETF inflows, Matt expresses confidence, stating that inflows are likely to accelerate due to increased institutional access and the behavior of crypto investors who tend to add exposure over time [18:46-19:53].
Factors Influencing ETF Success
Matt elaborates on the rigorous due diligence processes platforms undergo before listing ETFs, highlighting Bitwise’s success in navigating these complexities [20:38-21:45]. He also discusses the challenges faced by staking ETFs, mainly regulatory and tax-related hurdles, which are gradually being addressed [21:45-24:12].
Institutional Adoption and Wall Street Integration
Matt details how major Wall Street firms have shifted their stance on crypto, with institutions like JP Morgan launching their own stablecoins and allowing clients to trade Bitcoin [13:56]. This institutional embrace marks a significant transformation from skepticism to active participation [13:56].
Predictions and Status Updates
Lightning Round: Matt Hogan’s Predictions for 2025
Bryce initiates a lightning round, asking Matt to review his top predictions for 2025 and their current status:
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Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana All-Time Highs
Matt confirms that all three cryptocurrencies are on track to reach new all-time highs. He states, “We still think all three things can happen,” and expresses increased confidence in Bitcoin surpassing $200,000 by year-end [30:24-39:36]. -
Bitcoin ETFs Continued Growth
Matt reaffirms his prediction that Bitcoin ETFs will reach $40 billion in inflows by the end of the year, supported by institutional adoption and market demand [39:36-40:19]. -
Coinbase Surpassing Charles Schwab
Matt remains bullish on Coinbase, predicting it will eventually overtake Charles Schwab in value, though this might extend into 2026 due to Schwab’s strong performance [42:30-43:09]. -
Crypto IPOs
Matt confirms that the prediction of five crypto unicorns going public in the US by 2025 is on track, with already three successful IPOs [43:24-44:01]. -
Meme Coin Mania
Matt acknowledges that this prediction did not materialize as expected, citing delays in agentic AI as a factor [44:19-44:52]. -
Countries Holding Bitcoin
The number of countries holding Bitcoin is on target to double, nearing 18 countries, indicating widespread global adoption [45:02-45:43]. -
Coinbase in S&P 500 and MicroStrategy in NASDAQ 100
Both predictions have already materialized, with Coinbase and MicroStrategy included in major indices [45:57-46:35]. -
Department of Labor and 401ks
This prediction is on track, with regulatory changes enabling substantial investment flows into crypto [46:47-47:02]. -
Stablecoin Assets Doubling
With the passing of the Genius Act, stablecoin assets are projected to double to $800 billion and potentially reach $3.7 trillion by the end of the decade. Matt is bullish, stating, “Count me on the bullish side of that” [47:20-48:18]. -
Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) Surpassing $50 Billion
Matt anticipates RWAs will exceed $50 billion in value as Wall Street intensifies its embrace of crypto, integrating on-chain finance with traditional asset management [49:42-50:55].
Bonus Prediction: Bitcoin to Overtake Gold
Matt concludes with a bold prediction that by 2029, Bitcoin will surpass the $18 trillion gold market, trading above $1 million per Bitcoin. He emphasizes the integration of crypto into mainstream financial operations as a key driver [49:42-50:55].
On-Chain Asset Management and Future Directions
Experiments in On-Chain Finance
Matt discusses Bitwise’s initiatives in on-chain asset management, including staking Ethereum and exploring decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. He envisions a future where traditional finance seamlessly integrates with blockchain technology [53:38-54:32].
Community Engagement and Product Offerings
Brendan shares a personal anecdote about his father choosing Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF, highlighting the trust and reliability Bitwise offers in the competitive ETF market. Matt emphasizes the importance of trust, security, and community support in Bitwise’s product strategy [55:21-57:33].
Conclusion
The episode wraps up with co-hosts Bryce and Brendan expressing their optimism for crypto’s future, supported by institutional adoption, regulatory support, and innovative product offerings from firms like Bitwise. They encourage listeners to engage with Bitwise's investment products and stay tuned for future developments [58:04-58:42].
This comprehensive summary captures the crucial discussions, insights, and predictions shared during the episode, providing value to listeners and those who haven't tuned in.