CRYPTO 101, Ep. 696: ETF Inflows, Market Fear, and Why 2026 Looks Bullish with Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise

Hosts: Bryce Paul & Brendan Viehman
Guest: Ryan Rasmussen (Head of Research, Bitwise)
Release Date: December 26, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of CRYPTO 101 dives deep into the state of the crypto markets as 2025 comes to a close, focusing on market sentiment, the role and impact of ETFs—including the explosive growth in altcoin ETFs—the psychological dynamics at play among retail and institutional investors, and what lies ahead for 2026. Returning guest Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, discusses the maturing landscape of crypto from regulation to adoption, the outsized potential of indexes, and the factors shaping a bullish outlook for the coming year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflecting on 2025: Predictions, Black Swan Events, and Market Pain

• Bitwise prides itself on bold annual predictions, achieving nearly a 50% accuracy rate for 2025, despite an unpredictable macro environment and multiple black swan events.
• The year started with significant optimism after the 2024 election rally and all-time highs in both BTC and major altcoins.
• Markets then faced severe pullbacks, including "borderline black swan events" like record-setting liquidations and global tariff shocks, leading to drastic dips in sentiment and technical indicators.
  • Notable metric: The Fear and Greed Index hit 10, described as “one of the lowest points that it goes” ([04:05]).

Quote:

"I think there's this giant disconnect between fundamentally what's happened to the market and how the market has transformed over the past 12 to 24 months with where prices are at. That leaves me increasingly bullish for the outlook for crypto."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([05:28])

2. How Far the Market Has Come

• In just the past three years:
  • FTX collapsed, SBF dethroned, and industry-wide despair.
  • ETF fever: From none to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and index ETFs all approved.
  • Regulatory stance shifted from hostile to bipartisan support at both federal and state levels.
• Despite these advances, prices lag fundamentals, especially for BTC (“trading below $90,000... alts are down even worse” ([06:59])).
• Ryan expresses surprise, quickly pivoting to long-term excitement.

Quote:

"All of those things have transformed the market for the long term...and it does surprise me that Bitcoin's trading below 90,000 today and alts are down even worse. But that surprise quickly turns into excitement when I think about the outlook for crypto in 2026 and beyond."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([07:34])

3. Long-Term Tailwinds vs. Short-Term Fear

• Host Brendan emphasizes the importance of viewing dips as opportunities, referencing his own father’s journey as a new ETF investor.
• Ryan argues that macro trends (technology, high debt, long-term low liquidity, AI proliferation) all point to bullish prospects for crypto; regulatory and access advances add fuel.
• Stressing a long horizon (“5, 10, 15 years”), Ryan says these dips are “gifts to investors.”
• Human psychology, however, remains anchored in short-termism—a theme echoed throughout the episode.

Quote:

"The long term trends are all pointing to a increasingly technology driven world, a low liquidity environment from a macro perspective and a risk on environment. And to me all of those are bullish tailwinds for crypto."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([14:32])

4. The Case for Crypto Indexing

• Ryan has converted from a “stock picker” to a firm believer in indexing, highlighting “90% or more of the time index investing beats active investing.”
• Indexes offer broad exposure, minimizing the risk of picking wrong assets—a major concern in a rapidly shifting crypto landscape.
• Indexes are especially appealing for newcomers, financial advisors, and long-term oriented investors seeking sector exposure without high conviction in specific coins.

Quote:

"The last thing you want to do is, is be right about crypto in 2025 and then in 2035 look back and realize that you bought the wrong company and you bought the wrong blockchain."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([18:25])

• Brendan points out the common pitfall: DIY index-construction often leads to underperformance, even relative to simply holding BTC.

5. ETF Inflows: Signal, Not Noise

• Dramatic ETF inflows into altcoins, especially Solana, defy normal financial behavior:
  • Solana ETFs saw 18 straight days of inflows, even as the price dropped over 25%.
• Ryan quadruple-checked the data: “You just don’t see that in other asset classes” ([24:21]).
• Institutional hunger for “programmable blockchains and stablecoins” is strong, and the expanded ETF “menu” opens doors for new strategies.
• However, ETF launches do not automatically guarantee price appreciation—it adds a new demand channel, but fundamentals and broader interest are still crucial.

Quote:

"I had to quadruple check the data sources before I published that tweet because I was convinced it was wrong. That's how remarkable of a fact that is."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([24:24])

6. Regime Change at the SEC & The Altcoin ETF Boom

• The change from Gary Gensler to Paul Atkins at the SEC marked a profound, structural policy shift.
• Over 100 active ETP filings, with more coins approved, signal the genie is “out of the bottle.”
• Brendan presses Ryan: Will these ETFs kickstart a new altcoin season? Ryan is measured—ETF access means potential, not guaranteed inflows or price surges.
• Many new ETFs will thrive; others, especially among smaller altcoins, may close in the coming years.

Quote:

"Not every ETP that launches will lead to a massive run up or even will be a winner. Many of these will actually close probably in two or three years from now."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([32:36])

7. Investor & Advisor Behavior in Drawdowns

• Ryan’s daily conversations with wealth managers reveal that the institutional mindset is to “buy the dip” rather than panic sell; allocations to BTC are holding or increasing.
• Unlike retail participants, institutional allocators expect drawdowns and rebalance accordingly.
• Higher professional participation is expected to compress volatility over time.

Quote:

"From what we're seeing over this past month, month and a half, since the 10/10 crash, is majority of the financial advisors and professional investors that we speak to are looking at this dip of bitcoin as a gift and as a time to increase allocations..."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([41:02])

8. 2026 Outlook: Bitwise’s Early Themes

• Bitwise will soon release its 2026 predictions (with a teaser provided in this episode).
• Core expectations:
  • 2026 as an “up year” for major assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and other layer 1s.
  • Crypto equities (e.g., Coinbase, Circle, Bitcoin miners) set to do “very well” as part of a broader renaissance.
  • Major sector trends: Prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenization, and especially DeFi, which Ryan says is benefiting from the friendly regulatory tailwinds.
  • Recognition that 2025 was the “year of the crypto IPO,” setting up a potential rebound for public crypto companies.

Quote:

"Directionally the themes that I've pulled from those conversations are that we believe at Bitwise 2026 is going to be an up year for the major crypto assets and for crypto equities. ... I think many of them will set new all time highs..."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([42:52])

9. The “Bitcoin is Dead” Meme: Market Cycles & Media Sentiment

• As BTC falls, media and even some economists dust off the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative.
• Brendan references the “Bitcoin obituary chart,” which closely tracks major cycle bottoms.
• Ryan observes that such obituary counts are likely underreported and likens it to sentiment through history in other store-of-value assets like gold, underscoring the cyclical, resilient nature of Bitcoin.

Quote:

"Time and time again, people have declared bitcoin dead. And time and time again, bitcoin has hit all time highs."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([36:39])

10. Final Thoughts: Navigating the Present, Preparing for the Future

• Ryan’s advice: Ask yourself what kind of investor you are. If long-term, regard market dips and volatility as buying opportunities, especially within the context of rapid sector innovation and adoption.
• The upcoming release of Bitwise’s 2026 predictions will provide more concrete guidance, but all signs point to strong growth and continued maturing in both the asset class and its investor base.

Quote:

"If you're a long term oriented investor, these pullbacks are gifts. If your thesis is still that we're moving towards an increasingly digital and technology driven world...then I would just say these are a gift."
— Ryan Rasmussen ([45:55])

Memorable Moments & Noteworthy Quotes

• “It's hard to know all of the factors that are going to go into, to making those right. So directionally I think we were above 50% [on predictions] but...perhaps we were too bullish heading into 2025...” – Ryan Rasmussen ([02:53])
• “As old things go away, new things come in. And that's kind of the name of the game when it comes to the crypto market is that it moves at a million miles an hour.” – Brendan Viehman ([34:23])
• "It has to be dead. It is. We can declare bitcoin dead for the 451st time in this podcast right here." – Ryan Rasmussen ([35:21])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Predictions, accuracy, and challenges: [02:16]–[03:48]
• 2025 market recap & pain: [03:48]–[06:00]
• State of the market, bullish disconnect: [05:28]–[07:51]
• Long-term vs. short-term psychology: [11:19]–[14:32]
• Crypto indexing case: [16:24]–[20:46]
• ETF inflows (Solana, altcoins): [24:21]–[27:58]
• SEC regime change, ETF landscape: [28:07]–[32:46]
• Advisor/institutional behavior: [39:03]–[41:46]
• Preview: 2026 bull themes: [42:52]–[45:55]
• "Bitcoin is dead" meme & sentiment: [35:21]–[37:55]

Resources Mentioned

• Bitwise Investment Research
• Ryan Rasmussen on X: @RasterlyRock

Closing Note

Stay tuned: The much-anticipated Bitwise 2026 crypto predictions will be released soon—Ryan promises a return to share deeper insights once they’re live. If you’re a long-term investor, consider these turbulent waters prime fishing territory.