Fed Rate Cut Decision: Live Press Conference Reaction and Betting Market Fun

Summary

---

CRYPTO 101 Podcast Summary

Fed Rate Cut Decision: Live Press Conference Reaction and Betting Market Fun

Hosts: Bryce Paul & Brendan Viehman
Date: January 28, 2026

---

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode covers the Federal Reserve’s January 2026 rate decision and Chair Powell’s live press conference, delivering real-time analysis and reactions with a special focus on the intersection between Fed news, crypto markets, and prediction (“mention”) markets. Bryce and Brendan aim to make a typically dry macro event both informative and interactive by using prediction market odds, friendly betting, and community Q&A, while unpacking the crypto implications of monetary policy.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Fed Holds Rates Steady, as Expected

• Initial News ([00:00]-[02:47])
  • The Fed leaves rates unchanged; no surprises.
  • “Although coming off the wire right now, Brian, I saw that…There’s no clear decision on when cuts may resume. Obviously, that is going to tickle the White House administration the wrong way.” — Bryce [00:38]
  • Politics loom large: new Fed president will be selected by President Trump.
  • The statement’s ambiguity on future cuts is seen as market-sensitive.

2. The Humanity & ‘Reality TV’ of Fed Policy

• Fed Leadership Transition ([02:47]-[04:30])
  • Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends after the May 6-7, 2026 meeting, but he could remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors.
  • “The more I’ve learned about it, the more it seems political…Just like you know Democrats and Republicans, there’s hawks and doves…” — Bryce [03:43]
  • Fed minutes and leadership changes take on a soap opera quality for macro-watchers.

3. Inflation Data: Truflation vs. Official Measures

• [04:30]-[05:44]
  • Truflation (a crypto-friendly, alternative inflation tracker) posts a low 1.16%, suggesting inflation is “coming down.”
  • Official government measures are argued to be outdated: “Too heavy on housing, takes in oil…the government's version is a little outdated.” — Bryce [05:13]

4. Prediction & Mention Markets: Real-time Macro Betting

• [05:44]-[15:00]
  • Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair?
    • Rick Rieder of BlackRock surges to 42% odds on prediction markets, a sharp rise from below 5% the week before [06:38].
    • Hosts discuss prior mentions of bitcoin by Rieder and his “Bond King” status.
    • “If it would flip gold, I think we’d all be whipping around in our Lamborghinis…” — Brendan [11:43]
  • ‘Mention Markets’ Bets (e.g., words/phrases Powell will say):
    • “Good afternoon” intro at 96% odds (“a lock”)—executed flawlessly [14:53].
    • Number of mentions for “tariff,” “subpoena,” “gas,” “recession,” “natural gas,” etc.

5. Live Press Conference: Key Powell Q&A Highlights

Economic & Rate Outlook

• [15:00]-[22:00]
  • Opening ([15:00])
    • “Good afternoon” — Confirming first prediction market bet.
    • Economy is stable, unemployment rate steady at 4.4%, inflation slightly above 2% target.
    • “In support of our goals today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged…” — Powell [15:09]
    • Recent cuts have brought the rate to a “plausible neutral.”
    • Housing weak, consumer spending and business investment holding up, with federal government shutdown as a temporary drag.

Tariffs, Inflation, and Goods Pricing

• [23:34]-[32:00]
  • Tariffs highlighted as key driver of goods inflation.
    • “Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. And that's actually good news because if it weren't from tariffs, it might mean it's from demand, and…that's a harder problem to solve.” — Powell [30:19]
    • Expectation: tariff impacts will “move through and be a one-time price increase.”
    • Disinflation continues in services.

Labor Market & Timing of Rate Cuts

• [20:30]-[35:04]
  • “Some signs of stabilization” in labor markets, but also continued cooling.
    • “We’re not trying to articulate, you know, a test for when to next cut…We’re well positioned as we make decisions, meeting by meeting, looking at the incoming data…” — Powell [29:09]
    • The Fed remains data-dependent, not “on a preset course.”
    • Both inflation and employment risks perceived as diminished and “roughly balanced,” but uncertainty remains.

Politics, Independence, and Succession

• [36:16]-[40:43]
  • Powell refuses to weigh in on Senate threats to block nominees or discuss personal plans (“nothing for you on that”), stressing Fed independence.
  • “The point of independence is not to protect policymakers…it’s enabled central banks generally not to be perfect, but to serve the public well.” — Powell [39:09]
  • “Stay out of elected politics. Don’t get pulled into elected politics. Don’t do it.” — Powell’s advice to future Fed leaders [55:01]

Macro, Modeling, and AI

• [46:55]-[57:18]
  • AI’s economic impact: hosts and Powell agree that AI may be suppressing entry-level hiring, but its effects are unclear; history shows every tech wave disrupts and then creates jobs [47:12].
  • Model criticism: “By and large, those criticisms…they just don’t make sense…no one’s sitting here unaware of the possibility of higher productivity.” — Powell [57:21]
  • Consumer Health: Split between wealthier households (supported by rising assets, real estate, stocks) and lower-income households (“trade down” behavior, signs of squeeze despite overall spending).

Tariffs, Trade, and Real-Time Tracking

• [59:39]-[61:18]
  • The Fed now has improved real-time channels for tracking tariff impacts and trade volatility, acknowledging past underestimates of how pass-through would develop.

6. Crypto-Specific Commentary

• [70:20]-[71:18]
  • Discussion of Hyperliquid, a platform offering tokenized exposure to precious metals, and its strong week amid gold/silver rallies.
• No meaningful crypto market moves tied to this Fed meeting—markets “pretty much unchanged.”

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s kind of its own reality TV show…The feud between him [Powell] and the President…the Fed had such a big to-do during the COVID era.” — Bryce [03:12]
• “If it would flip gold, I think we’d all be whipping around in our Lamborghinis.” — Brendan on bitcoin’s upside if Rieder is appointed [11:43]
• “What a time to be alive at these prediction markets. Man, we were literally pulling this up multiple times a day…” — Brendan [10:52]
• “You know, our job is…price stability. And so…the best thing we can do…is to keep inflation under control and you know, frankly to finish the job of getting inflation back down to 2%.” — Powell [45:04]
• “The level of debt is not unsustainable. It’s very much sustainable, but the path is unsustainable. And the sooner we work on it, the better.” — Powell [36:42]

---

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | Highlight | |------------|-----------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00 | Kickoff & Background | Fed holds rates unchanged; new chair, markets & politics | | 02:17 | Market & Prediction Market Setup | “Good afternoon” odds, Fed leadership transition, truflation metric | | 10:52 | Prediction Market Deep Dive | Brennan on tracking who leads Fed chair market, bitcoin flipping gold | | 14:53 | Press Conference Begins | “Good afternoon” hits; opening statement from Powell | | 15:00-22:00| Key Opening Remarks | Economic overview, policy rationale, inflation and employment update | | 23:34-32:00| Q&A: Tariffs, Labor Market | Tariffs as main goods inflation source, labor market stabilization signals | | 36:42 | Fiscal Sustainability | “US federal budget deficit is on an unsustainable path” | | 39:09 | Fed Independence | Defense of Fed independence, risks of political pressure | | 46:55 | AI on the Labor Market | Disruption & productivity paradox, macro implications | | 55:01 | Advice to Next Fed Chair | “Stay out of elected politics” | | 70:20 | Crypto/Precious Metals Platform | Hyperliquid’s growth; tokenized exposure to physical assets |

---

Community and Tone

• Listeners interact through chat, with shout-outs and questions at intervals.
• Hosts maintain a conversational, slightly irreverent tone, mixing macro seriousness with betting levity (“Congrats to all the tariff betters. I got absolutely washed again. I stink at this.” — Bryce [62:46])
• Strong emphasis on prediction markets as a fun bridge between traditional finance and crypto culture.
• Greater context given for less expert listeners (explanation of truflation, prediction/mention markets, Fed structure).

---

Conclusion: Takeaways & Reflections

• No rate change and cautious, data-driven guidance from Powell—neither hawkish nor dovish signals dominate.
• Tariffs continue as a key inflationary theme; goods inflation seen as more “transitory” than services.
• The Fed and its leadership remain a political (and betting market) circus with President Trump’s looming pick.
• Crypto markets mostly unfazed; macro wonks enjoy the side entertainment of prediction and mention markets.
• Powell closes by championing Fed independence and offers advice to stay above politics for his successor.

---

For listeners seeking a smart but accessible take on monetary policy’s crypto crossover, and for those who enjoy blending high-stakes macro news with playful, real-time betting analysis, this episode delivers both laughs and actionable insight.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign, Everybody. Welcome back to the Crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. And it is a impromptu fed day with TiVo and Brian. Brian was nice enough to clear his schedule for the afternoon. We have a Fed rate decision. It was unchanged, as expected, so. So nothing crazy there. Although coming off the wire right now, Brian, I saw that there's, you know, the Fed in their kind of their minutes that they released to the press. I just saw a headline. There's no clear decision on when cuts may resume. Obviously, that is going to tickle the White House administration the wrong way. We have a new Fed president who will be decided by. By Donald Trump, the president. Again, politics aside, that's just the way it goes. This does affect the markets top to bottom, from the stock market to crypto, so that's why we're covering it. But we try to do it in a fun, unique way. So if this is your first time listening to the Fed decision day, basically, it goes like this. Brian and I, we got 10 minutes here. We're going to go back and forth on a little bit of Fed news. We're going to have some fun in the prediction markets. We're going to talk about that and we're going to place some wagers. Again, nothing that we say or do here is financial advice. We are just a couple guys having some fun in the prediction markets. And then in 10 minutes, Fed Chair Powell will come to the podium. Will he say good afternoon? Will he not? It's at 96% right now. And we're going to see what happens during the press conference before he goes on, we'll give you some of our wagers and you can follow along for fun. I will keep. If you're on the audio version, I'll keep the press conference in there because again, the press conference is important. The most important part is probably the Q and A markets move to that a lot of the time. So we're just here to have fun and break it down. And we appreciate you joining us. A couple people are piling in here on the chat. We've got jc, JC in the air. Arc Block army, stand up. There he is. All right, jc, what's going on? Brother Brian, welcome. Welcome to Fed Day. Once again. Not a super exciting one, as we said, at least leading up to the jump, but I. I don't know. There could be some fireworks this afternoon.

[B]

Yeah, it could get. It could get interesting. I mean, we probably overall wanted more of a boring meeting out there, but who knows? Who knows? What, what could happen on Fed day. It could definitely move the markets. Powell, he has a few more left. Like this is his third to last until he's gone essentially. So we'll find out what happens. But Good afternoon's a smash 99 right now. So that's, that's obviously pal's crutch to get the game, get the press conference.

[A]

I got in, I got in it. So I did, I did take the Good Afternoon. I got in at 97. So just like a little, you know, a little short term treasury bond play is, is the play there? Just get a couple bucks out of it. Maybe we'll go over our picks in a second but just to. I had to Google it myself. May 15 so the May 6 7th meeting is going to be his last one before he heads off to a nice summer vacation. Although there's so much Dr. Around the Fed, it is kind of interesting. It's like its own reality TV show. So just because he's done the, the, the, the leadership of the Fed president doesn't mean he actually has to leave. He has the ability to stay on the board of Fed governors for a couple of years is something, this is something that I've literally learned while studying it this couple last cycles of when this has been basically must watch television with the feud between him and the President and obviously the Fed had such a big to do during the COVID era of just injecting crazy amount of liquidity so he can stay if he wants and, and be a member of the Fed. I'm not sure about the voting rights versus just opinion pieces but it doesn't mean that when his presidency of being the Fed president is done he doesn't have to leave. Now history shows that usually after being the Fred president you do leave. The last couple have. So that has yet to be determined or even discussed. I'm sure he maybe he might get a question about that today. We will see. Let's pull up truflation because again this is kind of different sides of the ball, right? The Fed seems the more I've learned about it the more it seems political. Just like you know Democrats and Republicans, there's hawks and doves and people who want to cut people who don't are people that even might think you should raise because inflation all based around inflation, right? Inflation's out of control. Inflation's not coming down. So I pulled up truflation. Truflation has really hit some low watermarks recently as you can see here in that 1.16% so obviously the people that follow this metric, the crypto community does love truflation. I know we had their founder on the podcast a couple times. He was a great guy. So it shows that, you know, again, in their metric, inflation has been coming down. And the measurement that the Fed uses and the government uses is the argument there is that it's a little outdated. It's too heavy on housing, it takes in oil. It's like, you know, however you can cock these numbers. A lot of people argue that the government's version is a little outdated. So that we got that coming down. And then the most. The second thing, I saw something, see if there's some breaking news here. But the second thing is who is going to be the next. The next Fed president? And that took a wild turn this week. I think we, we mentioned it on the rundown, but I thought if we were doing this, we could actually pull up the, the numbers here because as you'll see on top, Rick Reeder is now leader in the clubhouse at 42%. So you can see him, he's the, the light blue here. But just last week he was, he was 4, 3, 4, 4.45%. And then all of a sudden he jumped up to 8 and then he jumped up to 18 and then, you know, went all the way up to 52% at one point. Brian. And we covered Rick Reeder. We played a clip from him on the rundown. So if you're interested in this stuff and did not listen to that rundown with Brian and Joe on Monday, go back, check the timestamps, because I played a clip of Rick Reeder and, and how he kind of looked at the markets. And it was an interview from a couple months ago and he was spot on with his kind of take on how to build a portfolio. And he did mention bitcoin, which we thought was really interesting. So Rick Reeder, the Bond King, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett. Again, this is why this stuff is so fascinating, the poly market stuff, Brian, which again, you are a leader on bringing it to us for this prediction market super cycle. Kevin Hassett, not that long ago, he must have been this orange one, right? Yeah, look. So Kevin Hassett, not that long ago, 84. 84. And then just a slow decline. And then look at them now at 7%. Yeah. So any thoughts? I mean, you could do, you could talk Fed if you don't have a take on the Fed, you could talk prediction markets here. But what did you see? And a new year, colder days. This is the moment your Winter wardrobe really has to deliver. If you're craving a winter reset, start with pieces truly made to last season after season. Quince brings together premium materials, thoughtful design and enduring quality so you stay warm, look sharp and feel your best all season long. Quince has everything you need. Their outerwear is especially impressive. Think down jackets, wool coats and Italian leather outerwear that keeps you warm when it's actually cold. Each piece is made from premium materials by trusted factories that meet rigorous standards for craftsmanship and ethical production. Plus they cut out the middleman so you're getting awesome prices. The wool coat that I got from Quince is super stylish. It's holding up way better than other coats I've bought before and those coats were way more expensive. It looks good, it keeps me warm and I didn't have to drop a fortune on it. Plus their online website is super fun to shop on. It's fun looking to peruse to look at their outerwear, but also they have super cool cool shirts, workout stuff. They even have a home section. You can get stuff for your house. Their website is awesome. You have to go check it out. So guys, refresh your winner wardrobe with quince. Go to quince.com crypto101 for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's quince Q-U-I-N c e.com crypto1.01 free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com crypto101 new year usually means new devices, phones, laptops, tablets, from grandma all the way down to the kids or at least spending more time online. That's been a good reminder to actually think about digital security again. I've been using webroot specifically their Total Protection plan, which is an all in one option if you want coverage beyond just antivirus. What stood out to me is that it combines real time antivirus protection against things like malware and phishing scams, identity monitoring with alerts, and this is a big one. Up to $1 million in expense reimbursement for eligible out of pocket costs if identity theft ever becomes an issue. Total protection also includes tools like a password manager and web threat protection that blocks malicious sites before you visit them, plus options to protect multiple devices and even family members, all without slowing your system down or throwing constant pop ups at you. So here's the deal. New Year New device Whether you're upgrading tech or sticking with what you've got, this Now's the time to protect all your devices at 60% off with Webroot's trusted cyber security solutions. Visit webroot.com crypto101 and get 60% off. Again, that's webroot.com w e b r o o t.com crypto101 for 60% off this offer is only available through the crypto101 link, so make sure you use it webroot.com crypto101 and get up to 60% off their total protection plan this year. Choose protection that's right for you and live a better digital life with Webroot. Are you interested in effortlessly growing your Bitcoin portfolio? I sure am. The Gemini credit card earns you Bitcoin back on every purchase. Use it just like any other credit card when you buy lunch, gas or even just your weekly groceries and you'll earn up to 4% back instantly in Bitcoin or one of over 50 other cryptos straight to your account. All that with no annual fee. And right now you can grab a $200 bitcoin welcome bonus and it's the easiest way to start building your Bitcoin stack. Guys, you've heard us talk about Gemini now every single episode. And we love and appreciate that they've been a sponsor because we use their products. Whether it's the exchange or the card. They have been leaders in the space for so long. So if you're interested in earning crypto rewards for your everyday spending, go to gemini.com card to learn more. Terms apply. See the link in the description for more information regarding rates and fees issued by web bank. To Qualify for the $200 crypto intro bonus, you must spend $3,000 in your first 90 days. Some exclusions to instant rewards apply. This is advice and trading. Crypto involves risk. Check Gemini's website for more details on rates and fees.

[B]

What a time to be alive at these prediction markets. Man, we were literally pulling this up multiple times a day to get a get a sense of what's going to happen in the actual real world. And I find this fascinating, especially with this nomination of the Fed chair, because we did Hassett had it looked like Hassett was going to be the Fed chair. You know, it was just there were so many overwhelming reports. Poly Market was through the roof, but I guess the insiders didn't have that locked down because good old Rick Reeder looks to be the leader in the clubhouse right now. And what's he that he's the CIO at BlackRock. I know he's with BlackRock so he's got some big ties there. I, I like that because I looked a little bit into this after our rundown because I said on our rundown I was like, I think he's mentioned that bitcoin could flip gold in some past interviews. So I did a little due diligence and I was able to find out some, find some talks where he's mentioned that in the past. So not only is he familiar with what bitcoin is, he, he's been on record saying that he sees a path for flipping gold. Now do we think that's going to happen? That would be awesome for it to flip one day. But as the way things looks, it looks like precious metals are the talk of the town right now. So if it would flip gold, I think we'd all be whipping around in our Lamborghinis. But it's exciting. I'm excited to see how it all shakes out. But this poly market stuff makes these meetings, especially in an FOMC meeting that I don't want to say it's going to be boring today because we're going to get a lot of great information. But we all are kind of expecting no rate cut, really. Hopefully no major fireworks. But these prediction markets still keeps me in the game. Not financial advice for anybody out there. But while TiVo was so elegantly doing the introduction, I did gobble up a little bit of tariff over 13 times mentioned today. I just feel like he's gonna lean into it. Good.

[A]

Tariff over 13 times. I'm gonna go over mine in a second. Just want to give out shout out to Rob from Wisconsin. We got Deborah in here and we've got White Seb. White Seb. What's up, brother? I saw a question about a wallet. You'll have to come back to a different live because we're just focusing on the Fed and we got one minute here before he goes live. But we see your questions, we love them. Just bring that back to a different live, hopefully. And then we had a question on the Clarity act update. Deborah. We'll cover that on Friday with Brendan. I did see a headline that some White House officials and cryptocurrency banking top crypto and banking executives are meeting next week. So we'll cover that on Friday with Brendan. Yeah, but let's go. I have a little rundown of what I did. I like this mentioned market stuff. So I have a mention market for adp, which is jobs numbers. I have a mention on. Good afternoon. That's obviously the intro. I have goods, inflation. I have. Yes, on recession because I don't think we see any risk of recession. And then here's two that I really like. 16 chance. Yes on gas. Gasoline or natural gas? Because I think possibly we could be talking about the big storm that could. He say we want to, we want to monitor gas, especially natural gas for some chance that, you know, there might be a huge pump in that because people are super cold right now and dealing with that. And then I have yes on a 31% chance for subpoena because the White House has subpoenaed the Fed for their, the building. They're, you know, they're doing the construction and they have not sent the documents requested for that subpoena. It is going to come up in the, in the press conference. That is a not financial advice TiVo guarantee. I have the press conference up right now waiting for him to look into the room. But Brian, what do you think there? I have those written down so we'll, we'll track them during the event. What was yours as well? Yours was tariff.

[B]

I've tariff. I've tariff over 13 times. I jumped. I piggybacked you on subpoena because you told me about it. I don't have. Good afternoon. Even good afternoon is a lot.

[A]

Good afternoon is a lock. It just went live.

[B]

Our purple tie.

[C]

Employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American.

[A]

Good afternoon was a hit, folks.

[C]

The US Economy was a hit, expanded at a solid pace, easy money and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization and inflation remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of our previous three meetings, we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient and business fixed investment has continued to expand. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak. The temporary shutdown of the federal government likely weighed on economic activity last quarter, but these effects should be reversed as the reopening boosts growth this quarter. In the labor market, indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in December and has changed little in recent months. Job gains have remained low. Total non farm payrolls declined at an average pace of 22,000 per month over the last three months. Excluding government employment, private payrolls rose at an average pace of 29,000 per month. A good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation. Though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Other indicators, including openings, layoffs, hiring and nominal wage growth, show little change in recent months. Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longer run goal. Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.9% over the 12 months ending in December and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core pce prices rose 3.0%. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing in the services sector. Near term measures of inflation expectations have declined from last year's peaks as reflected in both market and survey based measures. Most measures of longer term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal. Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3 1/2 to 3 1/4 percent. Since last September, we have lowered our policy rate 75 basis points or 3/4 of a percentage point, bringing it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral. This normalization of our policy stance should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2%. Once the effects of tariff increases have passed through. We are well positioned to determine the extent of and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis. To conclude, the Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy, maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainability sustainably to our 2% goal, and keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We at the Fed will continue to do our jobs with objectivity, integrity and a deep commitment to serve the American people. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

[B]

Quick. Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

[C]

Thank you. I wanted to ask that, you know you attended the Supreme Court hearing last week on the Lisa Cook case And Treasury Secretary Scott Besson criticized that as political. Can you say why you attended and what you would say in response to the secretary's criticism? So let me start with I, I don't respond to comments by other officials, whoever they may be. It's just not appropriate to do that. I will tell you why I attended. I would say that that case is perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113 year history. And as I thought about it, I thought it might be hard to explain why I didn't attend. In addition, Paul Volcker went to a Supreme Court case famously and I guess in 1985 or so. So it's precedented and I thought it was an appropriate thing and I did it.

[B]

Great.

[C]

And then just quickly follow on the job market, you mentioned last month that the household survey might be distorted and you also mentioned the potential for over counting jobs, which would suggest that we're still in a negative hiring pace. So do you see the drop in the unemployment rate as solid? And I'm just what's the basis for saying that things have stabilized?

[D]

Thank you.

[C]

So yeah, really two questions. One is so we're getting through the distortions in the data from the shutdown. However big they were in November, they're smaller in December. So we're getting to a place where they're no longer material. They're still there, but it's a tweak here and there. The reason why we changed the statement let me pull it out. Was simply it used to say that judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months. So we saw, you know, data coming in which suggests some signs of stabilization. I wouldn't go too far with that, but some signs of stabilization. There are also some signs of continued cooling. And so we thought that was no longer an accurate description of the data. In addition, the outlook for economic activity has improved, clearly improved since the last meeting and that should matter for labor demand and for employment over time. So for those two reasons, we thought we would take that language out of the statement.

[D]

Nick.

[C]

Nick Timberwose, the Wall Street Journal Chair Powell, you've generally avoided engaging with political controversies directly and the video statement on January 11th was a departure. What made this different and are you concerned it could draw the institution further, further into political debates? So today on I'm simply going to refer you to the statement that I made on January 11th. I'm not going to expand on it or repeat it. So I'm just not going to this is really about the press conference and the economy and what we did today, but, and some ancillary areas, but I'm not going to be getting into that. Can you say whether the Fed has responded to the subpoenas? I have nothing for you on that today.

[A]

Oh, Mike, if, if the question happens.

[C]

Michael McKee from Bloomberg Radio, have you made a decision on whether you would remain as a governor of the Federal Reserve, and if so, would you tell us what it is and if not, when might we anticipate a decision? No, and I really once again have nothing for you on that today that either. Why, why would you want to leave at all under the circumstances? Again, I don't want to get into that. It's not something I'm, there's a time and place for these questions and, and, but not, not something I'm going to be getting into today. Thank you.

[A]

Worth a shot.

[D]

Claire Jones, Financial Times, Thanks a lot for taking my questions.

[A]

15%. Yeah, I think it's worth a shot.

[E]

You know.

[D]

They're losing quite big movements in the dollar over recent days. What do you think is driving the US Currency lower and have you been at all concerned just by the extent of the volatility we've seen this week? Thank you.

[C]

So, Claire, as you probably know, you know, we don't comment on the dollar. Really. The administration, especially the Treasury Department, has the job of oversight over, over the, the currency and so and exchange rates and all that. We don't comment on that. It's not our, not our role. So I have nothing for you.

[D]

I mean, what's your view on the market movements? I mean, what do you think behind them? Is it asset managers diversifying? Is it?

[C]

Yeah, I just don't, you know, we don't, we don't talk about the dollar. We don't talk about what moves it around. It's just, it's just not appropriate for us to do so. Really. The Treasury Department just created us in there that it's their, their role, their bailiwick and we stay off it. We do monetary policy and some other things, but we don't, we don't comment on the dollar. Sorry, Neil. Hi, Chair Powell, Neil Irwin with Axios. Obviously, no SEP in this meeting, but in light of the slight firming up of the language around growth in the labor market in the statement, should we assume that the timeline for any further rate cuts is pushback compared to what people might have thought in December? Well, first of all, if you look at the incoming data since the last meeting, clear improvement in the outlook for growth. Did the data have come in and sentiment The Beige Book. Everything comes in suggesting that this year starts off on a, on a solid footing for growth. Inflation performed about as expected and as I mentioned, some of the labor market data came in suggesting, you know, were evidence of stabilization. So it's overall a stronger forecast, really, if that's your question, I'm not sure I answered your question. But in terms of timing or pacing of any additional easing. So we haven't made, you know, what we, what we'd say about this was that after this meeting, after the three recent rate cuts, we're well positioned to address the risks that we face on face on both sides of our dual mandate. And we'll continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data, implications for any implications for the outlook and the balance of risks. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings. But you know, the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate has been broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated. So we'll be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us.

[E]

Steve?

[C]

Steve Leesman, CNBC and sticking with questions you might answer. Thank you. You had previously, I believe, described the current policy rate being at the higher end of neutral. And if you look at the longer run, the S and the longer run rate, 16 of 19 officials are actually below there on their long run. Is the Fed still in a process of bringing it down towards a middle range of neutral and what would it take to get there? So the count I did was that four of the 19 were at or above that. Maybe I missed by one, but I thought it was one, I thought it was four. And if you look at the dealer survey, it was 10 out of 58 where we're at or above. So you're right, it's the high, higher end of the range. What we say is it's within the range of plausible estimates. This is the higher end of that range. But for some people, they think it's neutral. I think, and many of my colleagues think it's hard to look at the incoming data and say that policy is significantly restrictive at this time. It may be, it may be sort of loosely neutral or it may be somewhat restrictive. You know, it's in the eye of the beholder and of course, no one knows with any precision. So follow up. I get what you're saying, but some officials have described the Fed being in a mode of bringing it down eventually over time. Are you still in that mode or is this a place to hang out? Yeah, no, I would say if you look at the sep from, from December, you, most people had additional normalization, but at the same time, we've done a lot of the process of normalizing. A good piece of it is done with 75 basis points and before that 100. It's 175 basis points we've cut since we began cutting in September of 2024. So you've moved now to, you know, three point fed funds is running just a little below 3.65%. So you've moved a good way. And we think we're well positioned here to watch how the economy performs, look at the data. We're not making decisions about future meetings, but we do think we're well positioned after those three cuts to let the data speak to us.

[D]

Amira, thank you. Chair Palmer Mokwe from Bloomberg News. To what extent did the committee discuss the possibility of cutting at this meeting or in March? And how are you all thinking about the conditions that would merit another rate cut? Is there broad agreement on the, on the committee about what it would take?

[C]

So there was broad support on the committee for holding today. Broad, I would say, including among nonvoters. So that's where that was. Of course, some people did want to cut and, and dissented. But committee pretty broadly for, for, for holding today. We're not trying to articulate, you know, a test for what, for when to next cut or whether to cut at the next meeting. You know, what we're saying is we're well positioned as we make decisions, meeting by meeting, looking at the incoming data, evolving outlook and all that. And, you know, we're in a position where, you know, we have to, we still have some tension between employment and inflation, but it's less than it was. I think that the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks, risks have probably both diminished a bit. So, you know, we'll be looking at that. It's about how you weigh the risks to the two goals and, and how big those and quantify them. And so there are different views on the committee and you know, we'll find our way forward as the data evolve. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Edward Lawrence from Fox Business. Has the effects of tariffs already moved through the economy on prices? A lot of it has. So basically there are many different estimates and they're all highly uncertain. But most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. And that's actually good news because if it weren't from tariffs, it might mean it's from demand. And, and you know, that's, that's a harder problem to solve. We do think tariffs are likely to move through and be a one time price increase. So most of the overshoot, if you, if you were to take that out, you'd get, you would, I mean inflation, core PC inflation is running just a bit above 2% x the effects of tariffs on goods. And the other good news is if you look away from goods and look at services, you do see ongoing disinflation in all the categories of services. So that's a healthy development. So that's what's going on. The expectation is that we will see the effects of tariffs flowing through goods prices peaking and then starting to come down assuming there are no new major tariff increases that are begun. And that's what we expect to see over the course of this year. If we see that, if, if we see that that would be something that tells us that we can, we can loosen policy. Also if we see something that suggests that the labor market is not stabilizing, that in fact it's the downside risks re emerge or the data just get worse. We'd have to look at both of those. We have a two sided mandate. If I could, if President Trump does pick a new Fed chairman before May, what does that look like? How would you work with that person and what does that transition period look like? I don't have anything for you on that. You know that will depend on, on Congress's actions and things I can't speculate on.

[D]

Howard.

[C]

Howard Schneider with Reuters thank you for taking our questions. Given the changes in the statement and all you've said so far, is it, is it fair to disclose describe risks to your, to both sides of the band aid as roughly balanced right now.

[A]

And is the next move necessarily down?

[C]

I'd say that the upside, again the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to, risks to employment have diminished but they still exist. So there's still some tension between the mandates. Are they fully in balance? Hard to say. Hard to say. And you know again we think our policy is in a good place. I've just discussed reasons why we might change our policy and you know, we'll just have to see how the data lead us. I'm wondering a minute ago you said you felt expectations were consistent with your, with your mandate that the two in the ten year break evens have moved.

[A]

Quite notably in the last couple of weeks, I believe.

[C]

Is there any concern on that front? I mean the, I recently looked at all, all of the both survey and market based short term inflation expectations have come way down. You know they, they were in a good place at the beginning of last year, they spiked around Liberation Day, and now they fully retraced in the last few months. So that's very comforting. In the longer term, inflation expectations have remained in places that are very consistent with 2% inflation over time. So expectations are, have been solid and they reflect confidence in the return to 2% inflation.

[D]

Andrew.

[C]

Apologies if this is a little bit repetitive, but in the past you've said that the reason you cut rates was that the risk to the labor market was greater than the risk to the inflation side. Is that still true? You know, we haven't made. You're right. We, we saw the labor market weakening and we acted. And I think that was the appropriate thing to do. We have, you know, we will always act to, to address what we see as the economy moving away from our goals. Risks to both of the variables are a little less. I think that the upside risk to inflation, again, a little bit less, and the downside risk to employment, a little less. I just would say that I'm not making a judgment about how, you know, one of them is more at risk than the other, just that the risks to both of them have diminished. Okay, thanks. BIS wrote a paper last summer which concluded that global investors were hedging their dollar exposures in ways that previously they hadn't because of policy uncertainty. Do you agree with bis? We really don't see much at all about that, that whole, that whole story. There's just not a lot of data that suggests that there's much to that. Thanks.

[D]

Anna Swanson with the New York Times. Can you talk more about what you would need to see in the labor market to conclude it's time to resume easing? Do you need to see further deterioration in the labor market or would it be enough for inflation to soften?

[C]

So we'll always be looking at both things, and so there could be combinations, infinite numbers of combinations that would cause us to want to move. Certainly a weakening labor market would be an argument for loosening, but what's happening with inflation if inflation were at the same time getting worse? You know, you just, you just have a very difficult situation there. So we'll be looking at both. Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that, that the rate rates are in a good place. We'll have to be making similar judgments too, on inflation, though.

[D]

And if inflation does pick back up and the labor market doesn't show further signs of deterioration, is there a chance that you could raise rates rather than simply remaining on hold? What would you need to see? Hiking.

[C]

We don't, we don't take things off the table. But it isn't anybody's base case right now, anybody's base case that the next move will be a rate hike. But you know, ultimately we'll do, we'll do what we think is the right thing. But that's, that's not where people's expectations are right now.

[D]

Victoria. Hi, Victoria Guido with Politico. I wanted to ask you've talked in the past about concerns about the US Fiscal trajectory and we've seen in the Japanese bond market a lot of turmoil recently in part due to concerns over their fiscal and long term economic outlook. So do you worry that the US could at some point find itself in a similar situation to Japan, whether for fiscal or demographic reasons?

[C]

You know, over time you've seen that US Rates have remained pretty, they haven't moved a lot really for a while, but they haven't moved a lot because of what's been happening in Japan. So it's more of an overtime thing. The US federal budget deficit is, you know, uncontroversially on an unsustainable path. The level of debt is not unsustainable. It's very much sustainable, but the path is unsustainable. And the sooner we work on it, the better. But you know, right now we're running a very large deficit at essentially full employment. And so the fiscal picture needs to be addressed and it's not really being addressed. So that's important. I'm not in any way connecting it to some sort of near term market event, but ultimately it's something we'll have to deal with. And that, you know, in the end, in the end game, that's, that's where you wind up, is in some kind of a difficult thing. But that's, that's not where we are. It's not what Japan is either, but it's certainly not where we are right now.

[D]

Does it reduce the effect of your rate cuts that longer term rates have.

[C]

Overall not really budged that much? I wouldn't say that. You know, the thing is, I mean technically higher longer term rates means less accommodative financial conditions. But remember, many, many things move longer term rates. It's not, and it's not mostly what happens on the short end. There can be effects of longer term rates from our moving our policy around. But you know, it's much more, you know, assessments of the fiscal path and fiscal policies and risks and things like that that move the 10 year around. You can, you can look back and find periods where we've been very actively moving the policy rate over the course of a year and over the course of that year, the ten year is exactly where it started. So it's not, there's not a tight link between, you know, 10 year rates and, and the overnight rate.

[D]

Elizabeth, thanks so much. Elizabeth Scholzley with ABC News. Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, said he will block any Fed nominee, including the chair, until this investigation into you is resolved. Do you support this move by the senator and what conversations have you had with, with the senator?

[C]

I've got nothing for you on that.

[D]

More broadly, what would happen to American households if the Federal Reserve loses its ability to operate independent from politics?

[C]

So really the point of independence is not to protect policymakers or anything like that. It just is that every advanced economy, democracy in the world has come around to the, this common practice. It's just an institutional arrangement that is, that has served the people well and that is to have a separation between, to not have direct elected official control over the setting of monetary policy. And the reason is that monetary policy can be used through an election cycle to affect the economy in a way that will be politically worthwhile. So this is, I'm not talking about the US Context. This is every advanced economy democracy of any size. So it's a, it's a good practice. It's pretty much everywhere among, among countries that look at all like the United States. And I think if you lose that, it's first of all, it would be hard to restore the credibility of the institution if people lose their faith that we're, we're making decisions, you know, only on the basis of our, of our assessment of what's best for, for everyone, for the, for the wide public, rather than trying to benefit one group or another. If you lose that, it's going to be hard to retain it. And we haven't lost it. I don't believe we will. I certainly hope we won't. But it's very important. And the reason it's important is that it's enabled central banks generally not to be perfect, but to serve the public well.

[D]

You're confident it can maintain that independence at this point?

[C]

Yes. I mean, I'm strongly committed to that and so are my colleagues.

[D]

Archie.

[B]

Thanks.

[C]

Archie hall from the Economist on that sort of stabilization of the labor market question, how much do you see the weakening we saw over the past six months a year as a kind of data mirage around immigration and the government shutdown and so on? That's now resolved or how much have we seen a kind of real underlying firming up in the state of the labour market, do you think? Well, part of it is to your point, part of it just is that that labor supply, growth in labor supply has come to essentially a halt from a fairly fast clip of growth over the last couple of years driven by immigration and then the halt being driven by a very sudden stop in immigration. So many outcomes were possible with that. Supply came way down. It turns out that demand for labor also came down a very similar amount, maybe just a little bit more, which is why the unemployment rate has gone up. So I don't know whether that's a coincidence or not, but that's, that's what's happened with, with that part. But if you look at other things like for example the, just to pick a couple, the conference board's measure of job availability that came out, I don't know was it yesterday or today. But you know, it shows, it's a survey showing that, that workers feel like job availability is. It's a very low reading, just one reading. But it's an indication of softening people part time for economic reasons, which is a category within the broader U6 category. Measure has moved up significantly. So there are lots of. I could go on and on. There are lots of little places that suggest that the labor market has softened. But part, but you're right, part of payroll jobs softening is that both the supply and demand for labor has, has come down. Growth in those two have come down. So that, that makes it a difficult time to read the labor market, you know, so imagine they both came down a lot to the point where there is no job growth. Is that full employment? In a sense it is. If demand and supply are in, are in balance, you know that you could say that's full employment at the same time. Does it. Do we really feel like that's a maximum employment economy? You know, it's a challenging. It's very challenging and quite unusual situation. Thanks. And one more on growth and the kind of strong growth outlook or strengthen growth outlook. You're now seeing how much of that is the fiscal stimulus we're seeing from the beautiful bill, the tax cuts and all of that. So you're seeing it already. You don't have much of the fiscal. I think the outlook, you're right, it's financial conditions and its fiscal policy for 26, but you've got strong consumption. That's been happening before financial conditions have been supportive but before the fiscal effects really are shown. So essentially the economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Not for the first time, you know, consumer spending, although it's, you know, it's uneven across income categories, but consumer spending overall numbers are good and we're benefiting from the, you know, from the AI build out of data centers. That's, that's another thing we're benefiting from. But the economy, overall growth is, growth is, is on a solid footing, it looks like. And it's not just those things. It's, it's just the consumers. The consumer is filling out, you know, surveys that sound really negative and then spending. So there's been a disconnect for some time between downbeat surveys and, you know, reasonably good spending data.

[D]

Thanks, Chair Powell. Christine Romans from NBC News. You talked about how consumer spending is uneven. The president calls inflation defeated and solved. The FOMC says it's a somewhat elevated inflation. But you talked about those customer survey or those consumer sentiment surveys and public opinion polls that show that most families say the cost of living is still, still issue number one. What is the conversation around the table with your colleagues about how wealthier consumers seem to be driving so much of the economy and why so many families still feel like they just can't make ends meet after five years of rising prices? What is that discussion like?

[C]

So, a couple things. One, there's something, something to it in that we know that higher income households that tend to own real estate and tend to own stock stocks, you know, securities, and those assets have been going up in value and you know, increases in wealth do support spending over time. So, and that's, that's clearly a part of the story. We also know that for some time now, for, you know, a year or more, we've been hearing from retailers, for example, that serve lower income customers, whether it be food or the big box stores or anything, they're saying the same thing, which is our consumers are looking to economize. They're trading down from brands and they're buying less and exchanging their buying habits and that kind of thing. So we're seeing that and that's, that is a reality of what we're seeing. They're still consuming, but, but they're, they're feeling it in a different way. I would say more broadly on affordability. We, you know, we have a vast network through the Reserve Banks and also through the Board of Governors where we talk to small and large businesses and households. And so we do hear a lot about affordability and we take, we take that very seriously and we take it to heart. Because, you know, our job is, one of our jobs is price stability. And so, you know, the best thing we can do for, for people who are feeling that squeeze is to keep inflation under control and you know, frankly to finish the job of getting inflation back down to 2%.

[D]

You mentioned the build out as being positive for economic growth this year. I wonder, as you look at the weakest year last year for job creation of a non recession year since like 2003, are you concerned about AI maybe supplanting more entry level work and entry level jobs? And how does that play into your, what you're watching about the labor market.

[C]

You know, so everyone of course is watching AI and the deployment and you know, trying to understand exactly what's happening. And there's a wide range of possibilities. It's, it's hard to say. We're, and of course anyone who uses it is amazed at what it can accomplish.

[A]

Right.

[C]

So every, every technological wave will, will eliminate some jobs and, and create other jobs. And it's always been the case if you look back wave after wave after wave, there will be some disruption. But ultimately technology increases productivity, which is the basis for rising wages. And it may not all happen immediately, but over time, it's what, it's, what enables incomes to rise over time is rising productivity. So will, and we always ask, well this, this is going to be different. You know, is it going to be different? We don't know. And we may in any case see in the short term jobs that are being eliminated by the capabilities of AI. We may see that we just don't know what the overall effect is going to be. So how to think about it in terms of macroeconomic terms? It's very hard. You know, we, we can look at the aggregate data. We can, we can analyze, for example, the, the, there is some connection, it appears, between the low hiring rate for recent college grads and AI, but it's not the main or only driver. You hear large companies though, saying, many of them saying that they either won't be hiring for some time or that they're hiring less or that they're laying people off. And they tend to refer to AI when they, when they do that. So we're all watching and learning and it could, could certainly have pretty significant effects on the economy, the workforce and our society. We don't really have the tools to address the concerns that may arise, but we have a lot of people who focus on analyzing it and try to understand what the macroeconomic implications are which, which is our job.

[D]

Thank you, Chair Powell. Biggie from AFP News agency. You mentioned earlier that on inflation the broad expectation was for a one time price increase and then for inflation to come down. And I was wondering is your expectation still for inflation to start cooling in the second half of 2026 and if you could elaborate how far we are from target currently. Thank you.

[C]

So how far we are from target is as I mentioned in my opening remarks where we had 3%, 3.0% core PCE inflation over the 12 months ending in December and that's pretty much what we had the year before. So on net, no progress. But the story behind that is, is modestly positive in that most of the overshoot was in goods prices which we think is related to tariffs and ultimately we think those will not result in inflation as opposed to a one time price increase. Okay. So that's, that's where, where it is in terms of you asked. So no one thinks they, they will, you know, ex ante understand really clearly precisely when this will happen. But there's an expectation that sometime in the middle quarters of the year we'll see tariff inflation topping out. So what we do is we, when a tariff is put in place, we track the effect of those tariffs over a 6, 7, 8, 9 month period and you can see, and then you can see for that tariff how long it takes to reach a place where it's affected the price level and that's it. So we're getting better at that and our estimate is that it'll be sometime in the middle of the year. But I wouldn't look for great precision in that. But you know, we'll be able to see whether things are moving in that direction. I think, you know, we'll be able to see.

[D]

Richard Escobedo.

[C]

News I want to look out, I'm.

[B]

Under, I need more tariff talks to.

[C]

The US Said last week that there's been a rush and I wonder how you're thinking about geopolitical risk economy.

[A]

Yeah, this guy, this guy has a, this guy dances around the seats or anything like that.

[C]

You know geopolitical risk for us is a lot of it is around energy, oil and so far we haven't, you know with all, for all the turmoil we really, oil prices have come down as you know and so we don't really see much, you know, longer than that. It's trade and you know, the trade, the economy, our economy has, has pulled through pretty well you'd have to say given the very significant changes in trade policy. The US economy has, has pushed right through. Partly that is that the way that what was implemented was significantly less than what what was announced at the beginning. In addition, other countries didn't retaliate. And in addition, a good part of it hasn't been passed through to consumers yet. It's being, it's being taken by companies that stand between the consumer and the, and the exporter. So that's where that is.

[D]

Jennifer, thank you chair pal. Jennifer Schonberger with Yahoo Finance. Was third quarter GDP growing at 4.4% and the fourth quarter expected to have a 5 handle on it? As to what the Atlanta Fed is predicting at a time when you had a government shutdown and we thought that was going to shave off some growth, you've also got the fiscal tailwinds you've talked about, big tax refunds coming, potential tariff dividend. How could you cut rates and not spur inflation in that environment?

[C]

Well, we didn't cut rates today. But you know, it would depend, it depends on how fast potential output is growing. Right. I'm just asking in principle, I'm not, you know, I'm not saying this is what's happening, but you know, there's growth and there's how fast the potential is growing. And at a time of, of you know, high productivity growth, potential output is rising. So it really matters whether potential output is growing as fast as actual output and it would matter over time. The numbers you cite were for quarters and quarterly GDP is, you need to look at 12 months because quarterly GDP can be very lumpy. You know, GDP was negative in the first quarter last year. So the overall over the year, the numbers were nothing like that. You know, it was more in the mid twos for the year.

[D]

And how do you explain, explain the divide right now between strong economic growth and the job market? Is it productivity that's filling the gap and is productivity being driven by AI at this point?

[C]

So we, there has been, you're right, there has been a divide of solid growth but what looked like a weakening labor market. And that can be explained by rising productivity. But I would say we, we do see signs of, certainly of the, of the unemployment rate stabilizing. So it may be we're seeing the beginning of the resolution of those two things. Also, as you probably know, the, the law is that when GDP and, and the labor market get into an argument in the end reception labor market is more, the labor market data is more reliable. GDP data is more reliable, which is very hard to collect and understand. But nonetheless, I think we may be seeing that tension resolving a little bit too soon to say with Any confidence, though?

[D]

Matt Egan.

[C]

Matt Egan with cnn. Chair Powell, after today, you have two meetings left as Fed Chair. You've obviously experienced a lot during your time as Fed Chair, served under multiple presidents. I'm wondering what advice, advice you have for whoever your successor might be. Honestly, I'd say a couple of things.

[B]

He's gonna walk out of here, you.

[C]

Know, stay out of elected politics. Don't get pulled into elected politics. Don't do it. And that's, that's another thing. Another is that, you know, our window into Democratic accountability is Congress. And it's not a passive burden for us to go to Congress and talk to people. It's an affirmative, regular obligation. If you want democratic legitimacy, you earn it by your interactions with our elected overseers. And so it's something you need to work hard at. And I have worked hard at it. And the last thing is, you know, it's easy to, it's easy to criticize government institutions so many ways. I will tell whoever it is, you're about to meet the most qualified group of people you not only have ever worked with, you will ever work with. And when you meet Fed staff and not everybody's perfect, but, but there isn't a better cadre of professionals more dedicated to the public well being than work at the Fed. Thanks for that answer. If I may follow up, as I'm sure you've noticed, gold and silver prices have experienced historic gains of late. And I'm wondering how much attention, if any, you pay to those moves and what message you may take from these. Significant price increases we've seen for precious metals don't take much message macroeconomically, the argument can be made, it's that we're losing quite a credibility or something. It's simply not the case. If you look, if you look at where inflation expectations are, our credibility is right where it needs to be. So we look at those things. We don't, we don't get spun up over particular asset price changes, although we do, we do monitor them, of course.

[D]

Nicole for the last question. Hi Nicole. Good kind Barron's. Some prominent critics have charged that the Fed's economic models are somewhat backward looking, but should be more forward looking. Incorporating things like productivity increases from AI. How do you incorporate current and future developments into your analysis and decision making? And do you have an answer to those critics?

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

So.

[C]

By and large, those criticisms, as somebody on the inside, they just don't make sense. And I'll tell you why. Every FOMC participant writes down a forecast every quarter, right? The summary of economic projections. And that's the basis for how we think about the economy. So the other thing is, you know, what an economic model can do is it can grind up all the data for the last number of years, 50 years, let's say, and it can identify what are the relationships between variables A, B, C, D and all that kind of thing. And it can tell you if you change one of those variables, this is what should happen in the macroeconomic. That's just the way it works. However, the structure of the macro economy is constantly changing. For example, we hadn't had a pandemic in 100 years. It wasn't in the model and we knew it from the very beginning. It was not in the model. A trade war of this scope, we'd never had that in 100 years. And so there's great uncertainty at different points. Another thing I'll say is, you know, when it comes to, you know, technological developments that raise potential output, some kind of technological renovation, you know, revolution, like, like happened in the 90s here and like maybe happening now with AI, we're all over that. And you know, we, everyone studies those periods and you know, we're very clear eyed about the possibility that this higher productivity may persist and also that it may not. You know, we, we're not, no one's sitting here unaware of the possibility of higher productivity. We've been talking about it for three years. It long predates the current situation. It's been going on for five or six years. We've had productivity higher. We've been talking about it that whole time. So it's very much on our minds and we are well, well aware that higher productivity means higher potential output and it changes the way you think about potentially inflation growth, labor market and all those things. That's all in our models. I mean, if it's just question using better models, bring them on, you know, where are they? We'll take them. But I think, you know, we certainly are in contact with anybody who does economic modeling and we're always looking to do better at that. But that's, that's how I think about that.

[D]

And just a quick follow up. We've been talking a lot about tariffs and passing through and we've been talking a lot about them for the past few months. You know, the trade landscape is still, still in a constant state of flux. Announcements, threats, negotiations are all frequently changing. So I'm wondering how you actually track these. What data channels are most critical to follow this in real time?

[C]

Trade.

[D]

Yeah, the impact of tariffs and how they're changing.

[C]

Yeah, I think our staff has done a really nice job on that, and they've kind of put it together in real time. So as I mentioned, a tariff gets put in place, you can pretty much track its effects on pricing.

[A]

A lock for Brian, everything.

[C]

And, and so you build up.

[A]

It's a big W for the tariff.

[C]

All of the tariffs. At the beginning, it was very much forecast. Now it's, it's every, every cycle that goes by, it becomes more informed by actual data. And, you know, we were, we, our forecasts were not off. What changed was, as I think I said earlier, what change was, what was implemented was smaller than what was announced. In addition, we didn't see retaliation internationally, and I think people did generally expect that because we saw that in the past and that really mattered too. And then the other thing is that pass through didn't know how fast that was going to be to consumers, didn't know how much exporters would take, how much companies in the middle would take and how much the consumer would take. And it turns out it's a lot of companies in the middle who, by the way, are pretty strongly committed to passing the rest of it through, which is one of the reasons why we need to keep our eye on inflation and not declare victory prematurely.

[D]

Thank you.

[C]

We're done.

[D]

We're done.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

Thank you very much.

[E]

Whether you're walking barefoot in the snow, escaping for a walk on your lunch break, or trekking halfway across the world for a lush view, it feels good when we unplug and connect to our simpler side. If only our everyday nutrition were that simple. It's time to simplify your wellness routine with Cachava. Getting the nutrition we need from that graveyard of supplements in our cupboards is often overcomplicated. Just two scoops of Cachava's all in One Nutrition Shake and you've got 25 grams of protein, 6 grams of fiber, greens, adaptogens, and so much more. Plus, it actually tastes delicious. No fillers, no nonsense, just the good stuff your body craves. So instead of adding to your backstock of supplements that over promise and under deliver, keep it simple with just two scoops that have the highest quality ingredients. Simplify your [e-mail] and use code NEWS. New customers get $20 off an order of two bags or more. Now through January 31st. That's Kachava K A C-H-A-V A.com code NEWS.

[B]

What a swag. I'll tell you, that was like, I'm a Giants fan watching Tyreek catch that ball in his helmet with last question. And then they put a bonus question in to get us over the top. What a sweat that was, what it was to be alive there.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Congrats to all the tariff betters. I got absolutely washed again. I stink at this. I stink it.

[B]

Mention marks are kind of trash. They kind of stink. They're tough.

[A]

I know, but I just, I thought I had a beat. I thought I had a. No, that's not true. I just did this one for fun. The first time I started doing it, I'm not going to lie. I was like, I'm going to crush this. And then I stink at it. I will say I didn't mention this. The only thing I saving grace was as soon as, like they started asking the, the subpoena question, he wouldn't like, he didn't say subpoena. I thought that was a fair bet. I'd take that bet again. But as soon as he just was like, I'm not talking about that. I'm not talking about that. I went and hit a no. So. So there was a mention for president and the no was at like 80%. So I kind of hammered that with a, with a little number. Felt like a free 20% there because it just felt like he was never going to mention or say the president or Trump. Just kind of divert. So got a little bit back on it, but a losing effort for me. That's how gambling works. That's how the truth works. Don't let anybody tell you that there's some magical gambler. And then Brian with a dub. Congratulations to Brian. Do the opposite of what you think, Deborah. Of course. Of course. But that's like, it's. When you're doing the mention markets, it's like you're going for a, you know, 5, 6, X or something. It's like the probabilities are low that I'm taking, but if one hits, like I only needed one to hit and I would have been in the green. Even though it didn't seem to be that way. I. I was slacking.

[B]

Good afternoon. Yeah, well, X's, but no, that's. Yeah, yeah, I won.

[A]

I won a couple bucks on the good afternoon, but they. I was slacking. Brian on the side. I don't know if anybody that tuned in the last couple of times we did this. I took beige book and he didn't say it. And then of course, I don't take beige book. I don't take AI. And it just, it just vomits out of his mouth multiple times, which you, you hate to say. Well, you don't hate to see it. Congratulations, all the beige book betters and congratulations to the tariff betters. A quick recap. Yeah, nothing. There wasn't really much there, I think.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

The most interesting quote I got out of it was complimenting the Fed board and, and kind of just standing up for, you know, not being political and not being a part of the administration, but not being Democrat or Republican. Just saying, like, hey, this is a group of people that have differentiating opinions, but you're not going to have a more professional group. And we're independent from the politics of it, really. That's what I think he wants his messaging to be and his legacy to be. And I guess, you know, you kind of come back in and bring up the poly market of who's going to be the next Fed president is. Again, the president doesn't control the entire board. That's why they're a voting board. Right. So a little bit of change there during the. Rick Reeder came down a little bit and everything else stayed about the same. So what are your thoughts?

[B]

What, what, what do you. Do you. I, I guess I'll, I'll give you my thoughts. I kind of like.

[A]

Sure.

[B]

Like, I like how he, he's pretty stoic. He keeps himself together pretty nicely. I mean, he gets beaten down pretty bad by the president in the world, but he seems like a pretty decent guy.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Totally agree. I think, you know, the Monday morning quarterback of how they handled Covid, I think history shows that they didn't necessarily do the right thing, but they overreacted in a way to at least try and help. It was a belief of we think we're doing the right thing, we're going to help this economy because we don't want it to fall apart. And Covid, you know, looking back on it, was not, I mean, again, that's a politically charged statement, I guess, these days. But like, hey, we're, for the most part everybody's fine and the world's still spinning. So it's like from a, from a business and an economy thing, the world didn't stop at one point. The airports are shutting down, nobody's flying. And that was a huge panic. So they injected a ton of liquidity. And I think it is a tough thing because, you know, they're trying to take a balance of, you know, this economy and there's already so much liquidity out there and prices have risen so much, especially when you look at like, asset prices from Bitcoin to the stock market from the lows and then also the housing market, which obviously is tough. But I think he's, yeah, he's stoic, but he also seems like a guy like, you know, you might want to light up a stoke, have a pint down, down in the, like a man cave. He seems like, he seems like a man cave guy to me.

[B]

I'd love to get a couple beers in Powell and just ask him about like, just get the truth serum in him and just ask him about his feelings on Trump and just getting the knit and gritty because you know, he wants to just like scream at the rooftops like how he, how he's getting treated and how he, how he feels. But I mean regardless, I do think the next Fed, the next Fed Pratt is good, next Fed president is going to, is going to be a little bit closer to Trump and what Trump wants to do.

[A]

Yeah. For when we have it up on here. So I've never, Kevin Hassett was like a true Trump puppet, if you will. And I think the market did not like the idea of him being the Fed president just because he was that close to, to Trump. I've never heard, I've never heard Wal Waller is, I believe is, I think Christopher Waller is Waller Fed. I think he is in the Fed. He's been a member of the Federal Reserve since 2020. So he's a current Fed governor. I've never heard him necessarily speak. I've heard his written opinions. I've never heard war speak. Rick Reeder, I've heard speak a lot. He's, he's very stoic as well. Very confident, very stoic. We played that clip the other day. So yeah, again it's, it's a, it's what I said kind of at the end of the year episode was going to be an interesting news story to follow. It's ever changing and it's super fun to do the mention markets and yeah, I, I, I didn't, even though I took the L, I do enjoy it to be honest. It's, it's a fun sweat.

[B]

Yeah. Especially when we knew kind of this, this meeting. There's been a couple in the past that we've done that were just so clearly like we need a cut because it's baked in or we, we're like hanging on every word. I, I, I think the, the poly market odds of no change was like 99 or something today. So we kind of knew what it was going to be. So you kind of have to fire up the mention Markets a little bit to make it a little bit more entertaining, which they certainly, they certainly do. But it was as expected as advertise as advertised today's FOMC meeting and we only got a couple more rounds of Powell leading the ship here.

[A]

Yeah. And then a fresh take on the prediction. The prediction markets. We'll get a fresh or, sorry the mention markets. A fresh take. Like you kind of have a vibe of what you think pal might or might not stay and you can kind of get a, you know, a new feel for the, the next Fed president for his press conferences. It'll be fun.

[B]

Anybody go through Google images to see what Big Rick's favorite color tie is? Because Powell stuck with purple and I don't think he's gonna go with purple. You know that was Powell's color. So we'll have to see what's happening there.

[A]

But I think you change it up. We just pulled up coin market cap. We'll wrap it up with this. Yeah, the market's not really moving. Pretty much Hyper liquid having a nice little bump today.

[B]

I mean hyper liquid you can buy, you can get exposure to gold, silver and copper on it. So of course hyper liquid is, is going kind of wild. I think it's up like 50 on the week. I like, I like hyper liquid as a platform quite a bit. In full disclosure for everyone, I have exposure, I'm staking it. I, I think hyper liquid stake still has a path to be very successful this year. But we've seen it really outperform everything else right now. And I personally think it has a lot to do with because you can get exposure to precious metals because they have tokenized equities on their platform. But their platform, I'm not sure if you've ever been on there. It's a little clunky to use. It's not a smooth experience in my opinion.

[A]

But there you go. That's why you tune into crypto 101. A little alpha from Brian on Hyper Liquid. I just went through the s&P, Nasdaq Russell 2000 pretty much the same as crypto, pretty unchanged today. And then the 10 year a little bit of a bump and that, that has risen over the last month actually, which is interesting because that's exactly the opposite of what Trump wants because the 10 year ties the tightest to mortgage rates. So I guess that's it guys. We really appreciate it. You know, a hundred people stopped by. Thad, Thad says he always wants a strong, stoic Fed president. How do we determine? Help me determine The Gatorade color for the Super Bowl. Oh, Fitz just jumped in. Hey, Fitz. We haven't seen Fitz in a while. Fitz. The. Let's see. Thad wants the Gatorade color for the, for the Super Bowl.

[B]

I don't know.

[A]

It's hard. I want to do a little bit more research. Honestly.

[B]

I'm typing it in right now. Know, let's see what the odds are real quick before we go, because that's always a fun one, right? I just tell you, Chat, we need an in. We need an insider on the equipment manager side. And it, it is, it is absolutely an open. And there's. There's no overwhelming color here. Green, yellow, blue, orange. You're pretty much getting anything you want right here at a pretty good price. It feels like gambling.

[A]

Yeah, I think.

[B]

Do we ever see clear? Do we see water?

[A]

I was gonna say clear. I was gonna say clear. That's what I was. Feels like clear off the jump.

[B]

I mean, do you think they have. Do you think they have. I. I need, I need to talk to somebody. I need to call up the draftkings people and from my back in the days and see. Do you think these NFL teams, they go with one specific color or they have different basins of different colors, like, you know, reds down there, greens down there. Just because you like green or you like, you. You like red. There's a lot of guys on a team and then it's just luck of the draw of what they pick up. I have no idea. You're.

[C]

You're.

[B]

You're a college athlete. How did we, how did we do it at the Delaware Blue Hens?

[A]

Well, it was your top tier. Your top tier players had a dedicated bottle for them, so they got whatever they wanted for your tie your starting quarterback and your top top to your players. And then the. If you ever see the people run out into the field, they usually have majority water some and sometimes somebody will run like, because they don't. The other thing is you don't want. You don't want the hogs in the trenches getting a little sweet tooth and just sucking, sucking down a gallon. Like, you know, sucking down a gallon of. Sucking down a gallon of Gatorade. And then they're going to get a tummy ache. So you got to be careful. So usually what it was is the carry case was all water. And then you had one dedicated Gatorade person who would give you a squirt of Gatorade, but they would never let you hold the bottle because they know the hogs up front had a little bit of a sweet tooth.

[B]

This is the alpha we needed. This is exactly. I never, I never thought of that. This is exactly why TiVo's the goat right here. That's exactly what we needed. Lock me in for clear. I might go clear.

[A]

Yeah, we're gonna, I'm gonna go clear too, because I think it's Santa Clara. It going to be hot. It's not going to be too hot. Yeah, it feels like a clear Super Bowl. So we'll lock that in. Thad really appreciate everybody tuning in. Let us know if you like these in the comments. Again, it's a different type of content. You know, it's little, you know, sometimes maybe a little. Deborah said she was a little bored. But we try to make it fun with Brian and I doing the mention markets. If you guys like that stuff, we can do more content around it. Let us know in the comments. But we appreciate everybody tuning in. And I'll be back later this week, Friday afternoon, 1:00pm Eastern with Brendan. We'll do a little technical analysis and break down the rest of the news this week. So thanks for tuning in and we'll talk to everybody soon. Bye, everybody.

[E]

Whether you're walking barefoot in the snow, escaping for a walk on your lunch break, or trekking halfway across the world for a lush view, it feels good when we unplug and connect to our simpler side. If only our everyday nutrition were that simple. It's time to simplify your wellness routine with Cachava. Getting the nutrition we need from that graveyard of supplements in our cupboards is often overcomplicated. Just two scoops of Cachava's all in One Nutrition Shake and you've got 25 grams of protein, 6 grams of fiber, greens, adaptogens, and so much more. Plus, it actually tastes delicious. No fillers, no nonsense, just the good stuff your body craves. So instead of adding to your backstock of supplements that over promise and under deliver, keep it simple with just two scoops that have the highest quality ingredients. Simplify your [e-mail] and use code news. New customers get $20 off an order of two bags or more now through January 31st. That's Kachava. K-A C-H-A-V-A.com code news.