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CRYPTO 101
SpaceX IPO Forecast: Biggest Opportunity or Biggest Trap? Plus Bitcoin Technical Analysis
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When we started this podcast, it seemed like we had to figure it all out on our own. Scripts, set up filming schedules, logos. It was super overwhelming and every day seemed to introduce a new decision that needed an answer. When you're starting off with something new, it seems like your to do list keeps growing every day with new tasks and that list can easily begin to overrun your life. Finding the right tools that not only helps you out, but simplifies everything can be a game changer for millions of businesses. That tool is Shopify Shopify is the e commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in the US. From household names like us at Crypt Nation and the Crypto 101 podcast where you can get our book and merch to brands that are just getting started. Get started with your own design studio. With hundreds of ready to use templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store that matches your brand style. Accelerate your efficiency Whether you're uploading new products or trying to improve existing ones, Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions, page headlines, and even enhance your product photography. Get the word out like you have a marketing team behind you. Easily create email and social media campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling. And best yet, Shopify is your commerce expert with world class expertise in everything from managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and beyond. Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify and start hearing. Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com crypto101 Go to shopify.com crypto101 that's shopify.com crypto101
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Are you
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curious about the economic forces shaping your daily life? The Planet Money podcast from NPR makes sense of the economy in ways you'll actually understand and enjoy. Guys, you love listening to the rundowns. I get some of that information from this NPR Planet Money podcast. Especially recently with the war going on the straight of Hormuz, you're just kind of getting those updates as they come from these guys. They put out a ton of awesome content. It's a different perspective from crypto101, but still a great listen. So go over there and check out the Planet Money podcast. If stuff like current events and the finance world interest you, each story on Planet Money starts with a question. Recent episodes ask why Pokemon cards are growing faster than your retirement count. Questions about the war. Just like we talked about recently a lot on our program. From the job market to the stock market to prices at the supermarket. Planet Money explains it all. Planet Money is a different kind of world where the complex economy somehow makes sense, where human stories supersede abstract theories so you can learn, laugh and be entertained. It's econ, but just down to earth. The hosts go to unusual lengths to explain the economy. They've published their own book to track the global supply chain. They've shot a satellite into space to understand the economics of the private space industry. They' gone inside a live book auction to show how ideas get to market. It's the kind of show where you learn something, probably laugh and walk away seeing the world a little differently. And I think if you like crypto101, you'll enjoy Planet Money. So maybe check that out. Follow NPR's Planet Money podcast and understand how money shapes the world. All right, everyone, welcome back, back to the rundown. A historical rundown today because SpaceX is about to become the most valuable company to ever go public ever in the history of the stock market. And Elon Musk could be the first trillionaire tomorrow when this thing goes live. But there is still burning billion dollars a year at SpaceX. So here's what's actually going down in the I biggest IPO history. Brendan's here to join me. We're going to break down SpaceX. Look what we think's going on with it. Is it a buy, is it a sell? You know, who's to say, really? This is just a monumental thing. The news flow is absolutely buzzing about it, but we got some insider tips and tricks and just an overall thesis about the SpaceX IPO that we're going to break down for you here. We're going to go over the new inflation data, we're going to pull up the charts and do some technical analysis with you and then go over some stuff that we've seen in the news around Bitcoin, Ethereum and some other altcoins. So stick with us. Give this video a like if you're new, please subscrib and welcome to the show. Brendan, are you excited for the biggest IPO in stock market history?
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Excited, man. Listen, I'm a fan of Elon. I'm a fan of SpaceX. Maybe that's controversial, right? I'm not, not a political thing, but he's built a lot. He's probably, he has to be one of the best entrepreneurs of our generation of, of maybe in history. But I'm excited, man. Listen, they're a one of one company. They are the premier space company when it comes to things like they are the most advanced, hands down, better than, you know, was it Blue Origin, better than NASA, better than any space agency out there. So I think when you're coming and you're looking at what could be the future of not just like space travel, but also space business, it's an exciting thing to kind of look out for here. It's going to be, like you said, the largest IPO in history. Looks like it'll be around the $2 trillion IPO mark, which is wild. I think that comes out to like 90 to 100 times their earnings or revenue. I was looking at something like, which is also a wild number. Like you said, a lot of debt, but tons of stuff to be excited for. And you got some big IPOs that are following this up. Right. You got OpenAI not too far behind. Then a little bit later you're also probably going to have Anthropic, which is going to come out. So, man, I'm stoked. Listen, there's a lot going on. Of course we're going to talk about bitcoin and everything too, but big day, big day for investors and traders around the world. And it's going to be probably a big couple of months here.
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Yeah. And it's something to track. And again, we've been kind of forecasting this for a little bit that, hey, when this, when a huge IPO like this, again, the biggest to ever happen, it's gonna pull money from other things. And you've seen that a little bit just kind of around the, you know, semiconductors, the socks, the S P. Just a little bit of a dip here. And obviously those markets have been super, super hot. But dude, you know, bitcoin been going down. We've been covering that. Could this be a reason? Be careful. I actually just tweeted this out. I mean, silver was down, I think 40 something percent from its high. I was actually asking. I'll pull this tweet up. I didn't put it on the sheet.
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50%.
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It's almost 50%. And so I, I thought, you know, for the viewers, I was like, I wanted to do my part and keep everybody safe. I asked Senator Warren to please draft legislation to prosecute the silver industry immediately and prevent further damage and injury to silver because it's down 46% from its eye. I thought this was a safe haven again. The markets are a little bit, if you will, frothy, a little bit fun. But it all leads to the SpaceX IPO. And I wanted to give some stats. We pulled some stats that we wanted to share with everybody and then we can kind of give our take Brendan of like, hey, how excited are we? Is it something, you know, Again, nothing we say here is personal financial advice. Just a couple friends talking markets. But I think it's worth breaking down kind of our individual opinions because that's what people come to the show for. So, historics, let's go over the pricing for tomorrow. I just looked it up. Right now it's sitting about 135 and it's going to begin trading Friday, June 12th. It's expected to raise $75 billion at a 1.77 trillion valuation. So this company is made up of a different couple things. Right. So Starlink's in there, you got the starship launches Xai, it's all kind of, yeah. Put together to be there. So you have a couple different businesses, quote unquote that they're trying to run. Starlink is the near term growth engine. A lot of momentum for Starlink on airplanes. I'm going on a bunch of flights coming up. I'm really hoping I get Starlink on one of the flights that I'm going to be taking. But again, just as kind of a consumer product that's been growing. Musk holds 42% of the equity, but keep in mind folks, 82% of the voting power via Class B shares. This makes SpaceX a controlled company. So again, it's really just kind of similar to Tesla, right. It's a bet on Elon and the future of the company kind of rides on him because he has 82% of the voting power power. So this is a lot of fun. There's a lot of bullishness around it, but we also want to highlight some, maybe some risks and, and some definitely the hype valuation around it. So there's extremely strong demand. It's oversubscribed. I heard like, I think it was like four or five, six, seven times oversubscribed. It keeps going up. So even though Elon Musk is going to be the first trillionaire, the valuation is 95 times Brendan, 95 times 20, 25 sales. And again with the starships and everybody's seen the clips of, of, you know, landing the reusable rocket. That was unbelievable engineering. But right now it's just, it is a, it's a, you know, it's not a profitable endeavor doing that type of stuff, making bets on going to the moon, making the moon a vacation spot or occupying Mars. I mean these are futuristic dreams. So it's interesting to have that End of the spectrum along with Starlink and then kind of XI in the middle. And then hey, like there's a couple talks about are they going to buy Tesla and merge this all together with, with robots and AI? It's like, it's, it's unbelievable. So Brendan, after teeing those up, let's get Brendan's take number one. Obviously you're excited for the ipo, but what, what's your thoughts around the investment strategy or trading this? Give, give our listeners, obviously we have scale of, you know, novice investors to some experts. So, so give your take to the people.
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Yeah, listen, I'm excited, right? I think I've made that clear. I'm excited. I think this is going to have a massive future. The question for me becomes, is it smart to get into this thing at launch over a $2 trillion valuation? Long term, I think that's a cheap value for it, right? I'm not debating that shorter term, I think that there are some risks here. Most notably, right, it's coming in at an extremely high valuation, the highest that we've ever seen for an IPO, over $2 trillion. It's wild, right? 95% or 95 times their annual sales. Also pretty big number. The other thing to probably think about in regards to this is that it's launching a little bit differently than other IPOs. I think 30% of the offering is going to go to retail investors or retail traders. Usually that's drastically lower. You know, sometimes you see what, 5, 10%, this is going to be a lot bigger. So a lot more money is going to go towards retail hands which are a little bit more volatile. The other thing about this is that the way that insiders or early investors or employees can sell is also run differently. Typically there's like longer vesting schedules. This one's a little bit shorter. So starting right after the one month mark, you can start having some of these early investors and employees and insiders start selling, I think up to around 28 or maybe 20 to 30% ish of their, their, their shares that they have. And so right around like once you get to the one month mark they get their first unlock, then you have like, I think it's like the two month, the three month, so on and so forth, like Q2, Q3, it starts expanding and insiders can sell. So what you're going to have here is this thing that's at a record valuation. You have a lot of people who went in here, even people that weren't big. I know of some people that work at SpaceX. And you know, they're not big, high level individuals, you know, they're fairly young guys like me and you know, they're getting offered from my understanding, tens of thousands of dollars in annual comp. Now if you go and you do that for a couple of years and you look at the valuation growth that it's seen from billions to trillions, you know, these are probably guys in their late mid to late 20s, early 30s that now all of a sudden have hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions of dollars and they're being told, hey, you're going to have hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars available in this just from the last couple of years and, and you're going to be able to start selling this one month in those guys. The odds are they're going to do some selling, they just are. So the complexity here is you're going to have this at a record valuation, you're going to have a lot of shares and selling pressure unlock after the first one, two, three months. And the odds are those people are going to take profits. You know, some of those early investors are going to be up 100x, 1000x. A lot of these everyday people that are working a 9 to 5 job that now have hundreds of thousands, thousands of millions of dollars in liquidity available, they're also going to do some selling pressure. So there's a unique dynamic here where I think again people are going to look to take profits. My fear is that the early buyers could be the exit liquidity. A lot of the time with early IPOs, you see, they launch, maybe they have a big blow up moment at first they skyrocket up and then they come down to consolidate for a bit. I think you've seen that in a handful of them. You've seen it in Robinhood, you've seen it in Palantir, you've seen it in circle, you've seen it in like the list goes on. There's you know, a lot of these that have done similar things. And so that's my fear here is that, you know, maybe you have some early volatility to start but once those insiders start selling, you could have these early buyers be exit liquidity for the people who have had shares for a while. So it's one of the things that I'm considering here. Again, long term, I'm bullish on it. I want to own this thing long term. My thought process is if we get a dip and there's maybe we don't, right? If we get a dip. I want to do a buy of the dip on this thing. I got to say I'm hesitant to do buying around the $2 trillion valuation. I think there is a world where we probably get a deeper buy that's, that's probably significantly lower than that in terms of market cap. And that's where I would look to capitalize on this. That's what I'm looking to do. But no skin in the game yet for me.
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How/Crypto101 that's s c r I b e dot how slashCrypto101 all right, Crypto 101 fam a story I don't talk about at all is Back in college, I I played college football at a Division 1 level. Back then I could eat whatever I want, hit the gym, do the program, and stay in great shape. I didn't even have to think about it. Now that I'm older, in my 30s, it's a totally different story. And nobody loves a good dad bod more than me. But with the summer coming up, I was thinking maybe I should lean out a little bit. And my friends and I started looking into how we could achieve this. And instead of going down this peptide route or testosterone route where you got to do all these needles and stuff, we didn't want to do that. We were looking for something more similar. And so that's where we found Mars Men. Listen, you lose muscle faster and store more fat as you get older. And a big reason for that is testosterone. 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And they go way beyond clothing. You've heard me talk about how much I love the Quint's website. They have bedding, cookware, sofas. It's one of those sites where you go for one thing and end up staying for many more. Elevate your summer wardrobe. Go to quince.com/crypto101 for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Qu? N C E.com crypto101 for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quint.com crypto101. Yeah, I think I put a request in to get some pre IPO shares just to, just to say I did it just to be in the game. But I agree with you on, on the, the selling is like, hey, there's whether it's the, you know, the early investors, the early venture capital people that have been locked up for 5, 10, 15 years, you know, that's, that's not to say that they're even going to sell all the shares, right? But just, you know, you're going to take some off the table at some point, I believe. And then like you said, you know, the employees, it's, it's life changing money. It's life changing money. And this is a funny tweet. It's going to be all of us with the lunch lady on her yacht in the golf after the IPO goes live. I thought that was a great one. That one made me Laugh. And then again you got to look at and it's market conditions for such a large stock like that. I think, you know, I was looking at some stats of other IPOs and like Robinhood comes to mind. I think Robinhood launched, everybody was super bullish about it and that went, I think that launched at like the 40s or 50s and went all the way down to 10 or 8. You know, we covered it on this show and you know the famous clip of me saying that. So like that was, you know an 80 drawdown. I think Uber Lyft. You know, there's a lot of different companies that we all know and love today that are super successful stocks that didn't necessarily IPO well and that obviously is, you know, when did they go live the market and then the bare market that happens after that. It all kind of adds up. So I agree with you. I think you got to take caution here. It's definitely going to be, everybody's going to be in there. There's going to be long term investors, there's going to be traders, there's going to be gamblers. It's going to, you know, it's going to be crazy. They're, they're already launching a, a 2x leverage ETF the day it goes live. That's, that's where we are in this world. So happy investing, happy trading. Just again, a monumental type of, a monumental type of day for the largest IPO in history. So congrats to everybody that works at SpaceX. Congrats to all the, you know, pre IPO investors. Obviously it's going to be a great, a great day and a fun day as we transition. We want to talk about some general markets, some interesting things that we cover here. Next week we have Kevin Warsh's first press conference that is going to be must watch. I'm going to try and get and Brent, if you want to join us, you're more than welcome. Brian and I usually do the, the live press conference. We maybe put some bets on, you know, the betting markets of the submentions. Have some fun but also listen and break it down because sometimes those have been market moving events. I think this is must watch. Next week it's hard to think of a more recent must watch Fed meeting but the data keeps coming out and all year and hand up. You know, we gotta admit when we're right because we're right a lot but we gotta admit when we're wrong. And I thought going into the year the data, you know, has changed. So you're allowed to change your opinion. But I remember at the end of your show I, I said, I was like, yeah, I think we're gonna get, you know, some rate cuts here, maybe three, four, maybe more than what's priced in. And that has been, again, this is pre war, so there's no war, there's no inflation. So, you know, the, the, the game has totally changed. So you're allowed to change your opinion as an investor and a trader. But I didn't see the war coming obviously back in December. So the data's changing. Brendan, you brought this to the table today, so why don't you break it down with the new data that is changing in thus rate cuts. The price in rate cuts are changing.
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Yeah. What we've seen here is, you're right, the data has changed. I think all of us really kind of came into the year and we're saying, hey, we are coming off the 10:10 crash. There was some turbulence, obviously some negativity. What we were looking at the horizon and saying, hey, the, the macro really hasn't changed. We're looking at rate cuts. We're going to get a new Fed chair, he's going to be more dovish. That's probably going to even increase to more rate cuts than people who had priced in originally. And then like you said, there's been a couple of curveballs here that has changed that. Now what you get as the result of, you know, some geopolitical conflicts and just some, some other things that are just happening, right, Inflation going up. That's kind of like what this gets around to. So this is just saying, hey, we had CPI earlier this week, we just had ppi, which is the Producers Price Index, come out here and you had PPI increase from 6.5% year over year versus the estimated 6.4. So higher than expected there. You had the PPI for month over month come in at 1.1% versus the estimated of 0.7%. So that's kind of coming in higher. You did have core, however, which remains like a pretty big talking point. Core inflation, you know, wherever it may be, is continually coming in lower. So it's saying if you're factoring out some of the volatile food and energy sectors, inflation really isn't as bad as people expect it to be. It's only until you factor in the volatile food and energy sectors that you really do get the true inflation that we're seeing here. So that's why people argue that it's transitory. And what that means is that they're saying once this war and stuff goes away, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, all of this goes back down. That's what transitory essentially means, is that once this conflict and stuff ends, all of this stuff comes crashing back down and goes back to normal. So that's the difference here is again, you're seeing core inflation be fairly fine. But, you know, normal inflation, whether it's CPI or PPI here coming in higher than expected and worse than expected. So what does that mean for us as investors? Well, this kind of goes back to the point we were just talking about, which is that if this remains the case, it's going to cause some issues because now we are looking at probably two rate cuts this year. People saying, like myself, thinking, hey, we could get more than that. Now all of a sudden this talks and they're actually pricing in a rate hike on the year. So zero cuts and maybe a hike instead of cuts. So now all of a sudden that's being priced in as a possibility on the table. That has historically not been a good thing for the crypto market. The crypto market likes rate cuts. The financial sector, you know, it likes rate cuts, risk assets like rate cuts, because businesses can borrow at cheaper prices and et cetera. And that has a ripple effect that goes down the line. So that's why this matters, right, is because if inflation is getting worse, then there's going to be less chance of rate cuts and a higher chance for rate hikes. If there's a higher chance of rate hikes, then risk assets can tend to perform worse. That can be a risk. And then you have again, like something like crypto here, which is being somewhat affected by this. And I think that's the way to look at it. So that's why we bring it up here. I think the macro is not, you know, you don't want to look at this and be like, oh my gosh, I'm going to make every financial decision all today based off this one data point. But you need to consider it and kind of the, the effects that it could have on the market, which is one of the things that we want to like, just digest here. Again, our job is to go through all the noise, all the news, all the everything, explain it in, in a fairly easy to understand manner, talk about the pros and cons of how it could affect us and explain it. And so, you know, again, better to be prepared and understand what's happening and why it's happening. And that's really why we bring it up.
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Great Points, great points. Let's, let's jump into the charts because again, the SpaceX IPO inflation data and just a hot market for, you know, AI and a down market for bitcoin. It's always good just to check in, you know, don't have to do too much time, just do the high level stuff. And then next week we'll be back with me and you on Friday for a full, full technical analysis. I think it'll be good to do that after a week of the ipo because I feel like stuff right now is a little bit kind of at least chilling for the moment. But we'll definitely come back. So mark your calendars. Next Friday Brent and I will be back doing a deep dive on the charts.
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Yeah, well you know, bitcoin here still following the breakdown, right? We've, we've tracked this for a while saying hey, ever since the all time high, you basically moved down Bear flag, move down, bear flag, move down, bear flag, move down. And this is no exception. Another bear flag via one of these rising channels on the charts. You know, pretty clear rejection zone for bitcoin. Rejected its prior consolidation range, former support now used as resistance in here. Rejected the 200 day moving average which is the yellow line, the anchored vwap, which is the orange line. The top of this bear flag that it was in, you know, this little white line that we have rejected all these key levels. Hit the top of the bear flag, crashed down through all of its major moving averages, broke down through support of the, the bear flag itself. And then that's when you really started to see the acceleration once the bear flag broke, which is a continuation pattern to the downside. So big old break here and it brought us right back to the lows. Now I have a, a little wiggly white line down here to show. Hey, we actually did break lower than our prior swing low, our prior cycle low back in February. So we broke a little bit lower from 60,000 down to around 59,000. So slightly lower low happening in here. However, we really didn't close below 60k for the most part. We are closing around 61,000ish, which is again still the lowest candle body closing that we've gotten this, this downtrend. But again holding around our prior lows, which is something to note. So the big question here now is like, well, is that the absolute low? Is that the cycle low? I think it's too early to say, right? We just came in on this low last Friday. It hasn't even been a one week of consolidation. Maybe we need a little bit more of that. I think we'll kind of see. I think we need to see what this is going to be. Is this going to be a bear flag via a pennant? Is this going to be another kind of rising channel, bear flag? You know, maybe we get something bullish out of here. We get not sending triangle. Right. There's a number of different ways it could go. I think you have to lean a little bit cautious at an area like this. The downtrend is very clearly bearish. Right. The trend is not our friend over the last six to nine months. So I think you got to be a little bit careful at this area. And then the other thing is that historically, you know, kind of with bear flag you get breaks to new lows. Here you have a bear flag break in the new low. Bear flag break in the new low. Bear flag breaking the new low here. What we have is this bear flag, this rising channel with a break. Excuse me, to the lows, but not yet to a new low. So I think that remains like a big question at the forefront of my mind is well, are we going to break, get that break to new lows on bitcoin, technically speaking, you got a little bit. But you know what it's 1% difference about. So nothing too, too crazy over here. And I think it kind of leaves that idea on the table. Hey, there is the possibility that new lows could be something that's possible, which is why I want to be just again, a little bit cautious, a little bit safe. I'm not going, you know, yolo all in here. I want to make sure I got some cash on hand and stuff. But yeah, I think you got to consider this. Note to the downside here. I guess the other things to look at is that you do have an anchored vwap from the prior cycles lows. So back from 2022, if you do an anchored vwap from there, you have that right around the high 50s in terms of bitcoin's price. And then you also have the 200 week moving average, which has been a pretty big historical zone as well. And you have the 200 week moving average on bitcoin, which has been a big bottoming point in the past, right around the low 60s, high 50s as well. And so, you know, we've used that as support and a bottoming point in 2015 and 16 and 2018 and 19, 2020, 2022, we came below it, but was still a bottoming point. And now we're kind of back at that zone again. So I would be looking at this and saying, hey, you know, I think there's a lot of long term value that comes out of us being around this area. Maybe we go a little bit lower. That doesn't change my thought process, which is that historically you look for value at or below the 200 week moving average at some of these key levels. So that kind of makes me want to be a buyer of bitcoin, especially under 50,000. And so it's something that I'm looking at. And one of the things we haven't talked about in a while, TiVo, is that if you look at how bitcoin has performed once it's at a 50 to 60% retracement, the odds of it being profitable a year, a year later is something that is really interesting. I'm going to throw this up on the chart so that everyone can kind of just see this number. But you can see that when Bitcoin's at a 50% drawdown, which, well, if you look at it one year later, based on historical data, it has an 89.8% win rate. So it's saying if you're buying bitcoin at a 50% drawdown or worse, and you look back, you know, or excuse me, you look forward a year from that point in time, the odds that you'll be profitable one year later are 89.8%. The average return on that one year later is 125%. If you're buying at a 60% drawdown, what you're looking at, can you see this on the screen? TiVo? I'm not sure.
- [32:45]
A
I can't. No, I can't. I just see the charts still.
- [32:48]
C
Let me do a screen share this one more time. Let me do that. So this is that chart that I was saying, again, buying at a 50% drawdown, your one year win rate will be 89.8% and then your average return rate will be 125%. If you're buying at a 60% or worse drawdown, which we have not hit yet, but, you know, we've come, we're getting there. The odds that you'll be profitable one year later based on this data is 98.3% with an average return rate of 132%. So again, could we go lower? Yes. Should we go lower? My opinion, again, not financial advice, but I want to be a buyer, you know, looking at 90 plus percent odds are around that area. I'm okay taking that, that risk and maybe I'M wrong and maybe I lose money and maybe it doesn't work out that way. But again, based on historical data, I do think that there's some opportunity that we can look at in Bitcoin. And again, it is possible we do go lower, but that's not something that's going to deter me too too much in looking at some of the value. The final thing I'll say here is that, you know, a lot of these other large caps are looking somewhat similar, right? You kind of have a break of the lows moving down here. Eth, Solana, xrp, bnb. A lot of these charts all look similar where they kind of had a break to the new lows and they're just consolidating down there for the moment. So a little bit more weakness in terms of these altcoins coins as they have kind of broken down into some record levels. So you want to keep an eye on that. You know, Bitcoin looks a little bit stronger and healthier and even some of the coins that were heavily outperforming like Hyper Liquid and near in Venice, even those coins are starting to come down a little bit here as things are settling out for the time being. But you know, still things that I'm excited about, you know, we'll talk about Hyper Liquid a little bit later on, but still projects that I like. I still think again, there's tons of opportunity out there and out of these dips, I think you look at what's fundamentally strong and you're probably going to still find things that are very, very tradable and longable.
- [34:57]
A
So great breakdown. It's a great breakdown. It's just kind of the reality of where we are. Good transition into the sailor. Quote of kind of saying like, hey, bitcoin's a little bit stronger right now. All coin's a little bit weak. Sailor took on small coins calling out a variety of them. So let's take, take a listen.
- [35:12]
B
Confidence in Ethereum has collapsed. If you're paying attention, what, what you see in the rest of the crypto market is there's a competition between Ethereum, Solana, BNB for the long time, Sweet was the next Solana and then that collapsed and now there's hype, Hyper Liquid and then there's competition at the layer twos with our Bytrum and base and all of those things have stripped the monetary premium out of all those crypto tokens. And I think that, I think that even the people that believe in the tokens realize that they're not money. They're not going to have a monetary premium. They're going to live or die based on utility and they're all in a difficult competition. So I, I think the last 12 months have been really good for the position of Bitcoin as the dominant digital monetary network. They've established Bitcoin as digital capital. I think we've proven digital credit is an idea that works. You know, confident.
- [36:13]
A
It's an interesting quote but like he's, you know, we just tried to cover the news. He's talked other side of that too. He's like, you know, when the market's hot and everybody's doing good, Sailors had quotes where he said, you know, everybody's winning, Ethereum is going to win. And you know. Right. Am I wrong about that?
- [36:27]
C
No, you're right.
- [36:28]
A
It's.
- [36:28]
C
I was laughing because he's just making enemies right now. Tbo. He, he's going to war. He's got some of the bitcoin people against him, said he'd never sell bitcoin. Selling some Bitcoin, you know, he's taking these different stances. Used to be pro Ethereum, but more pro Bitcoin now it's collapsed. It's so bad, it's so bearish. I mean sailor the bear, man, Sailor coming out as the bear, selling some bitcoin, saying Ethereum's collapsed, making enemies again. I guess he's got to talk his bag on, on Bitcoin here and double down. But he's not making friends, saying things like, I don't know what's gotten into him this year.
- [37:05]
A
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- [37:32]
C
Safe.
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A
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- [38:28]
D
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- [40:20]
A
yeah, well, a couple billion dollars on a P L into the negative. We'll do that to people. Ask Tom Lee for a quote about what he said about Ethereum. Tom Lee just gave me a shrug. He said, eh, I'll buy somebody. I'll buy some more. Eth bit mine. Buying more just continues. Continues to buy. And they were launching that preferred stock, so that's something we'll continue to watch. But again, it's not necessarily. It's a stronger pasture, but not. Not too much of a greener pasture. I thought this was a fun quote of Mike. Mike Novograd's basically saying, hey, the 60k level, we have, you know, technical support, but, you know, if. If you're somebody that likes to pray, maybe. Maybe say a couple prayers. So let's take a look at what Mike said. Coin, Michael. So we're at 62, as you and I are speaking. Does it head to 50? It has into the 50s before it gets back to 70. I'll just point out when the ETF started, we were around the low 40s in January of 2024. So where do you think we're going?
- [41:19]
E
You know, I. I don't have a strong conviction. If we. Listen, if we take out 60, we're going to head to the mid-50s to low-50s, and then, then it'll be a 50. 75, I think 80. You know, I said this before. I'm mad at myself for not selling enough when we got up to 82. I. When we were at 60 last time, I said 80, you got to have
- [41:38]
C
to take out 80.
- [41:39]
E
82, 83, that's going to be the top. Unless it takes that out and then it goes to 100. Well, it failed up there. And now I think that still is 80. Still your ceiling.
- [41:49]
A
That's the resistance. Yeah.
- [41:51]
E
If you take out 60, it opens up 50, you know, 45 to 50. And so if you're a good Catholic, you're saying two Hail Marys and Our Father, that's 60 holds.
- [42:04]
A
That's where we are right now in the crypto market, folks. I saw another clip from that podcast where it was just saying it was like a sentiment for the bitcoin, the old school crypto heads. It's just like we don't have the energy. It was an interesting quote. It was short, so it wasn't worth playing, but the thesis of it was, it was like, we don't have the energy right now. The new bitcoiners and the new crypto people, they're bailing because they bought the top. And then the old bitcoiners that have been through multiple cycles, it's like, yeah, we've seen this before, but I can't deal with this right now. There's too much. There's too much else going on in the markets. Right. Like with, in a positive way with the AI trade and there's other areas to research and make money. So I thought that was an interesting, interesting take, especially because Galaxy is, you know, dabbles in both crypto and the energy side. But any thoughts? Are you joining, are you joining Mike Novogratz in the Pew?
- [42:59]
C
I think we all probably said one or two. Maybe it's for bitcoin, maybe it's for an altcoin that we like. But no, again I think he's been pretty level headed about it saying hey guys, the same thing that we just said is like there's the possibility that we go a little bit lower. He even left that open ended saying, hey, you know, could we go into the 50s, it's possible. Could we go a little bit lower than we're currently priced at. He left the door open and I would agree with him. He's not sitting there saying, guys, it is ugly, it's going to get horrible, we're going to go down. He's not saying that. He's. You just hear a soft, slight, more, more risk based approach where, or sorry, a less risk based approach where he's saying, I want to be careful around here. We could go lower. And that's kind of the voice that he's taking as opposed to like a raw, horribly bearish tone. He's saying, you know, just hey, be careful, this stuff's still there and available and we could do that. And I think he's right about it. I think it's a possibility, but it's not something I'm like losing sleep over and freaking out about as well.
- [44:03]
A
Yeah, exactly. That's where we are. It's like anybody, unless you have super high conviction, I guess one way or the other, it's definitely kind of let the market come to you type of vibe, which I know, you know, isn't always the most fun, but it kind of is what it is. Again, you can't have the, the fun bulls without a little bit of the bear. Right? That's what makes the world go around. So some good news before we head out today. Hyper Liquid Weekly users above 200000 an interesting week for Hyper Liquid as they try to price the SpaceX IPO I think kind of right there. It's been really interesting. The traditional finance channels have been talking about Hyper Liquid just kind of referencing some different features on it and obviously it's been making a lot of noise. So good, good for that. You know, small team, like we've covered on the show. It's like they're doing wild things with a, with a tight team there.
- [44:55]
C
Yeah. And you know, I don't think, again, I don't really think Hyper Liquid is going anywhere. If you look at their activity metrics and their growth metrics, they are just dominating now. They're a multi billion dollar project that's run 2 to 300% in the last several months. So you know they're going to have pullbacks and stuff. But I like them. So long as they continue to grow. So long as they're growing in activity and in money and in users and all these different metrics, I think it's really hard to fade them if they're growing at the rate that they are and this just kind of backs that up. So yeah, they're crushing it, man. I like them. I'm talking my bags a little bit because I got some exposure to them. But again, I don't think you can really argue against them. There's a reason I have exposure to them and you know, I did some profit taking and I sold some off. But guess what? I want to buy them on the dip. So now I have a little bit more capital to buy them on the dip, which I'm excited to do.
- [45:48]
A
Yeah. And again, we love doing the podcast with Everybody and the YouTube, but you got to give a shout out to the community of Bryce, you, Rohit, Brian, Joe and Hunter and the entire team like. And you know, Hyper Liquid is something that you guys called super duper early. And if somebody like that's listening to this isn't aware of the community again, there's always links in the bio if you want to check it out. I think we got some dollar trials. Again, this is kind of the time to be upping your education, upping your knowledge around the space because the volatility is here and with volatility comes opportunity. So, Brennan, I thank you so much for joining me. We didn't get to do a live today but appreciate Everybody watching on YouTube. If you give it a thumbs up, bottom right, hit the logo and subscribe. We'll be back next week with some more lives. I hope everybody enjoys their weekend and the SpaceX IPO launch. Historic day for the markets, but thanks you all as always. But that's all for today. Bye bye everybody.
- [46:58]
F
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