Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News

Episode 1873: “New Bitcoin Model Predicts BTC Will Hit $1,000,000 by THIS Date”
Host: Justin Verrengia (JV)
Release Date: January 9, 2025

Introduction

In Episode 1873 of Crypto News Alerts, host Justin Verrengia, popularly known as JV, delves deep into the latest developments in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency landscape. The episode, titled “New Bitcoin Model Predicts BTC Will Hit $1,000,000 by THIS Date,” covers a spectrum of topics including technical analysis, significant market movements, regulatory updates, and a groundbreaking Bitcoin price prediction model. The content is designed to inform both seasoned investors and newcomers in the crypto space.

Market Overview

At the onset ([00:28]), JV provides a comprehensive snapshot of the current cryptocurrency market:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Showing signs of volatility, BTC is about to retake the $95,000 mark, flipping back into the green.
• Other Major Cryptos: XRP and BNB are also in the green, while Ethereum and several altcoins are experiencing corrections and are in the red.
• Market Capitalization: The total crypto market cap stands at $3.3 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 56.6% and Ethereum at 12.1%.
• Top Gainers: Over the past 24 hours, Maker leads with a 5% increase, followed by Kaya and Neo, both up by 4.5%.

JV encourages listener engagement by asking, “Which alts if any are you bullish on for the Bullhalla, let me know.”

Technical Analysis

JV transitions into a detailed technical analysis, highlighting recent market behaviors and analyst insights ([02:00]).

• ETF Outflows: On January 8, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $569 million, the second-highest since their inception. This was triggered when BTC fell below the psychological $100,000 level.

  "Bitcoin investors pulled almost $570 million from U.S. listed spot ETFs as the asset fell below the psychological hundred thousand price level." ([02:45])

• Market Liquidations: Concurrently, $521 million was liquidated from the crypto market due to BTC's dip to $92,000, influenced by concerns over the US Fed's tightening monetary policy.

  Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, stated, "Bitcoin's dip stems primarily from the strong US economic data pointing towards potential interest rate hikes." ([03:15])

• Crypto Greed and Fear Index: The index remains high at 69, indicating continued greed in the market despite recent liquidations.

  "The higher this number goes in extreme greed, the more likely of a pullback." ([04:00])

• Analyst Opinions: JV references Dan Crypto Trades, who remarks, "It’s too soon to draw conclusions from the bitcoin price volatility," emphasizing the undecisive start of the year for BTC.

Breaking News

The episode covers several major headlines impacting the crypto ecosystem:

1. Standard Chartered and Clean Spark Initiatives ([05:58]):

   • Standard Chartered Bank: Now a $1 trillion institution, with BlackRock as the primary shareholder, Standard Chartered is set to offer Bitcoin and crypto custody services in the EU.
   • Clean Spark: A publicly traded mining company, Clean Spark, has amassed over 10,000 BTC on their balance sheet.

   "Clean Spark, one of the miners now owns over 10,000 of the Bitco on their balance sheet." ([06:10])

2. Bitcoin Whales Accumulation ([07:00]):

   • Institutional investors have collectively acquired 34,000 BTC since the December downturn, amounting to $3.2 billion, signaling strong buying pressure.

   "Large bitcoin holders are back buying huge amounts of the crypto. [...] More than 34,000 Bitcoin worth 3.2 billion have been accumulated by the institutional investors." ([07:45])

3. Thailand Piloting Crypto Payments in Phuket ([13:30]):

   • Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai announced a pilot program integrating Bitcoin into everyday transactions in Phuket. Tourists can register BTC through a Thai exchange and convert it to Thai Baht via a clearinghouse.

   "The program aims to integrate digital currency into everyday transactions, allowing tourists to register Bitcoin through a Thai exchange and verify their identities before making purchases." ([13:50])

4. Oklahoma Senator Introduces Bitcoin Freedom Act ([20:15]):

   • Senator Dusty Devers filed SB325, proposing that employees and residents in Oklahoma can opt to receive salaries in Bitcoin and enabling vendors to accept BTC payments.

   "The bill ensures that participation is entirely voluntary, respecting free market principles and empowering the employers and businesses to choose their own payment options." ([21:00])

5. Bhutan's Strategic Reserve Boost with Crypto ([25:10]):

   • Bhutan is enhancing its strategic reserves by integrating Bitcoin, BNB, and Ethereum. The country's mindfulness city near Jellifu plans to hold significant crypto assets as part of its economic strategy.

   "Bhutan's new Special Administration Region has just announced it will hold BNB, Bitcoin, and Ether as part of its strategic reserve." ([25:30])

New Bitcoin Price Prediction Model

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to unveiling a new quantile regression model that predicts Bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 by a specific date, diverging from the traditional stock-to-flow model ([30:00]).

• Overview of the Model:

  • Unlike the stock-to-flow model, the new quantile model factors in Bitcoin's adherence to power law trends and historical volatility.

  "The quantile model statistical findings present different timelines. So let's break down these different timelines, shall we?" ([32:00])

• Comparison with Stock-to-Flow:

  • The stock-to-flow model forecasts BTC between $250,000 and $1,000,000 by the next halving in 2028, averaging $500,000.
  • The quantile model suggests more conservative targets: $300,000 by 2029, $1,000,000 by 2034, $3,000,000 by 2039, and $10,000,000 by 2046.

• Statistical Findings:

  • Achieving $1,000,000 within the current cycle would require an unprecedented bubble excursion, exceeding historical volatility by at least 4 standard deviations.

  "To reach 1 million in 2025 would require a bubble excursion [...] greater than four standard deviations." ([33:45])

• Analyst Reactions:

  • The model challenges bullish projections like Cathie Wood’s predictions of $1.5 million.
  • JV expresses skepticism, stating, "Since we're in a super cycle, I don't trust the Quantile model. Agreed. 500,000. 1.5 million cycle peak. You're speaking my language, Oracle." ([35:30])

• Host’s Perspective:

  • JV posits a bull scenario predicting $1.1 million if the US adopts a strategic Bitcoin reserve under the new administration led by Trump.

  "JV is calling for 1.1 million. That's if this is my bull scenario, that's if Trump adopts the strategic bitcoin reserve..." ([35:50])

Live Q&A and Listener Engagement

The episode transitions into a live Q&A session, engaging with approximately 900 listeners on platforms like Axormal and YouTube ([40:00]).

• Listener Questions:

  • Topics include interpretations of the new prediction model, personal Bitcoin investment strategies, and reactions to recent legislative changes.

• Community Insights:

  • Discussions reflect a mix of optimism and caution, with listeners debating the viability of reaching the $1,000,000 mark within the predicted timeframe.

Concluding Remarks

JV wraps up the episode by reaffirming the importance of staying informed and encourages listeners to visit the Crypto News Alerts website for a premium experience.

"Check out cryptonewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q&A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode, HODL." ([43:00])

Key Takeaways

1. Market Dynamics: Bitcoin is displaying significant volatility but retains strong market dominance amidst a broader crypto market worth $3.3 trillion.

2. Institutional Moves: Major financial institutions like Standard Chartered and companies like Clean Spark are deepening their involvement in Bitcoin, signaling institutional confidence.

3. Regulatory Developments: Progressive legislative efforts in regions like Thailand and Oklahoma indicate a growing acceptance and integration of Bitcoin into everyday financial systems.

4. Strategic Reserves: Countries like Bhutan are pioneering the incorporation of cryptocurrencies into national strategic reserves, potentially setting a precedent for other nations.

5. Price Predictions: The new quantile regression model presents a more conservative and statistically grounded forecast for Bitcoin’s future, challenging more bullish narratives within the crypto community.

6. Community Sentiment: Despite skepticism from new models, the crypto community remains engaged and optimistic, balancing between bullish aspirations and cautious analysis.

Notable Quotes

• Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget:

  "Bitcoin's dip stems primarily from the strong US economic data pointing towards potential interest rate hikes." ([03:15])

• Dan Crypto Trades:

  "It’s too soon to draw conclusions from the bitcoin price volatility." ([04:00])

• Deputy Prime Minister Pichai of Thailand:

  "The program aims to integrate digital currency into everyday transactions..." ([13:50])

• Senator Dusty Devers of Oklahoma:

  "The bill ensures that participation is entirely voluntary, respecting free market principles..." ([21:00])

Final Thoughts

Episode 1873 of Crypto News Alerts offers a nuanced exploration of the evolving Bitcoin ecosystem, balancing technical insights with strategic developments and forward-looking predictions. JV's engaging presentation, bolstered by real-time data and expert opinions, equips listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current crypto climate and the potential trajectories ahead.

Stay informed and continue stacking those sats!
HODL!