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1873: “New Bitcoin Model Predicts BTC Will Hit $1,000,000 by THIS Date”
00:34:14
The Quantile Bitcoin model challenges traditional analysts who claim that the BTC price will hit $1,000,000 in 2025.
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- [00:01]
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- [00:28]
JV
Welcome Crypto Fam to the number one daily Bitcoin pod. In today's show, I'll be sharing the latest bitcoin technical analysis as well as breaking news. One trillion dollar Standard Chartered bank to offer bitcoin and crypto custody services in the EU. Also publicly traded company Clean Spark now owns over 10000 Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Let's go. We'll also be discussing the Bitcoin whales have scooped up 34000 of the Bitcoin since the December dump. I'll be breaking as well as Thailand to pilot crypto payments in Puket. We'll also be discussing Oklahoma Senator introduces Bitcoin Freedom act for Bitcoin payments. We'll also be discussing crypto in the Himalayas as Bhutan Strategic Reserve gets a boost. I'm also going to be sharing a new Bitcoin price prediction model which suggests Bitcoin hitting a million dollars by this particular date. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good Crypto fam? This is first and foremost a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at cryptonewsalerts.net again that's Crypto News Alerts. Net today is Pod Episode 1873. I'm your host JV. Today is January 9, 2025. Bitcoin had a lot of volatility past few days. I mean this morning we were way down and we're right back up and about to flip it back in the green. Today is Pod 1873. I'm your host JV and this is the final stream before I am in bitcoin country which will be the next stream in a couple of days. So just FYI but let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. You can see bitcoin about to flip back green about to retake out 95 GS. We got XRP in the green BNB in the green while ether and many of the alts are correcting and in the red and checking out coinmarketcap.com the current crypto market cap sits at 3.3 trillion and we have Bitcoin dominance at 56.6% with either dominance at 12.1%. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours we got Maker of 5%, Kaya up 4 1/2% and Neo of 4 1/2 percent. Which alts if any are you bullish on for the Bullhalla, let me know. And checking out the crypto bubbles we get a visual perspective. Let's start on the D and as you can see, I'd say maybe 70 in the red, 30 in the green. Zooming out on the monthly 90 rec city in the red and checking out the crypto greed and fear index. Today were 69, a fantastical number yesterday was a 70, last week of 70 and last month of 78. In extreme greed and check it out the time chain Calendar we have 171509 blocks until the next having of 2028. We're currently on block height number 878490 and you can currently exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1058 SATS. So stack them stats and put down the gats. And there you have it crypto fam. But let's dive into today's technical analysis. We'll also be pulling up some of the live charts and check out what's crack a lagging in the market. Bitcoin investors pulled almost $570 million from U. S listed spot ETFs as the asset fell below the psychological hundred thousand price level. That was on January 8, leading to a surge in liquidations. January 8, the spot Bitcoin ETFs clocked 569 million of outflows, which is the second highest daily net outflow since launch, which was January 11 last year. And just 100 million shy of the outflows on December 19, which came in at 671 million as per farside data. Now the markets are still in greed despite the large amount of liquidations. That's right. Over the past 24 hours, 521 million was liquidated from the crypto market. This came as bitcoin price fell to 92,000, mainly triggered by growing concerns over the US Fed's tightening monetary policy for this new year. According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget. Quoting him here, bitcoin's dip stems primarily from the strong US economic data pointing towards potential interest rate hikes. And bitcoin has bounced back some since then as we're currently, you know, sitting a few grand higher than the bottom already today. And the index referring to the Crypto Greed and Fear index, I mentioned it earlier, just reiterate today we're a 69 in greed, as you can see right here in your screen or on your screen. And remember, the higher this number goes in extreme greed, the more likely of a pullback. That's just the way it is now. Some traders say it is still too soon to draw conclusions from the bitcoin price volatility. Quoting Dan Crypto trades this doesn't say much yet, especially seeing December broke the trend and the start of the year is generally very this episode is brought.
- [05:31]
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- [05:59]
JV
Choppy Dan said that while Bitcoin hit a local top earlier in the month, retesting 1025, it set a monthly low after pulling back to 92.5. Pretty undecisive start of the year thus far. And in breaking news before I pull up the live charts, one trillion dollar Standard Chartered bank in which BlackRock is the primary shareholder of to offer bitcoin and crypto custody services in the EU and also publicly traded company Clean Spark, one of the miners now owns over 10,000 of the Bitco on their balance sheet. And Bukele tweeted here, maybe you all get the chance to buy bitcoin at a discount. Off the back of the news of the US government clearing to sell 69, 000 Bitcoin worth six and a half billion seized from Silk Road. That's according to the ruling of a federal judge. Apparently they did not learn the lesson from Germany dumping their 50000 Bitcoin and losing billions of dollars. US government. What's up with that? Trump can't take office fast enough. We've had the war on crypto for the past four years with Kamala and Biden and just saying the war is almost over. Family and pulling up some of the live charts. Give me a second to switch up the scene on your screen. You should be able to see cleanly right here. This is the one hour via Coinbase, via Trading View. We do have a Couple of targets on screen. Actually a few. One sitting at 114. That's right. JV had a dream. And also in the green 185. And in the red 98. 451. And we have a bear target in the orange all the way down to 79. 7. I saw some bearish analysts projecting we can go as low as 80,000. Let me know if you agree disagree with that or do you think the bottom is already in? And zooming out. We'll take out the four hour. A few targets here too. In the blue we have 123,000 on the four hour. We haven't seen a bullish target this high on the four hour in a very long time. That's the type of target you see on the weekly chart. So looking up I dig it. And red target at 110 and a green target at 108. 5. And zooming out from the 4 hour. Check out the daily. The daily also has a lot of action Jackson going on including a 110,000 price target. There's also some bear targets you can see on screen. Also a rising wedge formation. Zooming out on the weekly. That's the sexy cup and handle target which has been there for a long time which shows 124,000 in play here on the weekly chart. And zooming out from the weekly get a quick glimpse of the monthly. And as you can see November we had the biggest monthly close of all time. The highest price appreciation in fiat and then we had a corrective Itty bitty red for December and January as yet to be determined. Obviously it's only the 9th and we have Trump taking office in 11 days. Let me know if you're bullish on that. Here's the latest with the bitcoin whales headline raise Bitcoin whale scoop scooped up 34000 of the biddy since the December dump. That's right. Large bitcoin holders are back buying huge amounts of the crypto. The king crypto that is the biddy. At the end of 2024 following a record six figure high. According to Block Trends. More than 34000 Bitcoin worth 3.2 billion have been accumulated by the institutional investors providing buying pressure for the current recovery in bitcoin. According to this analyst. They said the buy up came after the wallets holding between a thousand and ten thousand of the biddy dump. 000 Bitcoin in the week after December 21st days after it hit the peak of 1083. The current all time high, which was actually December 17th amid the US Fed's interest rate cut, which ended up generating a 15 correction. He added that the large players took advantage of the consolidation, started making the big trades broken down into the multiple smaller ones, accumulating Bitcoin with the price below 95G's baby, which is approximately where we're at at the time of the live stream now Bitfinex analyst said in a Jan. 6 market note that the sell side liquidity and the bitcoin markets is shrinken at a rapid pace and the worst of the downside pressure on its price has likely already passed. However, analysts also predict that Bitcoin can be set for a record rally this year, buoyed by expected pro crypto policies from upcoming US President the Trumpster again 11 more days into the inauguration Family, are you ready? And Gary, if you're lurking, go home, get your shine box There's a new chairman in town and his name is Nipinator. Fidelity Digital Asset Research analyst Matt Hogan wrote Jan seventh paper that the firm anticipates the more nation states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, government treasuries will look to establish strategic positions in the bitcoin. Meanwhile, blockware analysts said late last month that the U S Bitcoin reserve could in the worst case push the price to over 150 GS while a best case scenario would send bitcoin soaring to a 400, 000 price target. Let me know if you agree disagree with the analysts and there you whales are giving you another opportunity to stack them sats. So put down the gat, stack the sats. You know what to do. Fam Next Story Thailand to pilot crypto payments in Phuket Let me know if any of y'all have been to Thailand, especially the city of Phuket. I remember being there as if it was yesterday, actually spent about a month in Thailand, but this is a very long time ago and I spent some time in Phuket. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai reportedly announced a new initiative Jan. 8 at a seminar organized by the Marketing association of Thailand, according to the Nation Thailand. He said the pilot will be conducted within existing legal frameworks with no amendments to the current laws required to implement the trial. So they're adopting Bitcoin out there. The program aimed at integrating digital currency into everyday transactions, allowing tourists to register Bitcoin through a Thai exchange and verify their identities before making purchases. That's definitely a win right there. And according to Pichai, the initiative will operate within Thailand's existing legal framework and will not feature anything that is illegal. Well, of course not. The Deputy Prime Minister said the program aims to make digital transactions more accessible in tourism focused cities and remain competitive to avoid missing out on business opportunities. Meanwhile, foreign tourists will need to verify their identities before using cryptos to pay for goods and services. A clearinghouse will convert Bitcoin transactions into the Thai bots. Now to illustrate the program's utility, Pichai cited the example of refugees from the Russia Ukraine war who could use Bitcoin to purchase property in Thailand instead of facing challenges in obtaining Thai baht, their local currency. Now, December of 2024, the former Prime Minister of Thailand Faskin gave a lecture in which he urged the Thai government to study crypto and push for sandbox experimen and also said Thailand should begin studying digital assets to keep ahead of the curve towards global digital digitization but not begin buying cryptos. He also highlighted and there's the Nipinator well at work right there potential challenges posed by the incoming Trump administration in the U. S including possible trade tariffs and the Trump suggestion of using Bitcoin to pay off the United States its debt. Meanwhile, Nairon, the CEO of Bananas in Thailand wrote an opinion piece in October discussing the regulatory move by the country's sec. The CEO noted the SEC at Thailand's proposed new regulations to expand the scope of funds to invest in digital assets is a push for legitimizing and adopting digital assets like crypto. They also said the move's intention goes beyond simply legitimizing the biddy. It's about creating a mature ecosystem where traditional finance and digital assets coexist. And you hear Nipinator going wild. He must smell. Gary Gensler, are you still lurking? Gary, let us know. Oklahoma Senator Introduces Bitcoin Freedom act for Bitcoin Payments that's right, a Republican state senator in Oklahoma. Dusty Devers file legislation allowing employees and residents in the state to opt to receive salaries in Bitcoin. That's what's up. And enable vendors to accept Bitcoin payments quoting them here. In a time when inflation is eroding the purchasing power of the hard working Oklahomans, Bitcoin provides a unique opportunity to protect earnings and investments. And as Bitcoin continues to rise and the value of the dollar continues to be printed away in Washington D.C. oklahoma must act to protect our people. Hey now. The bill called SB325 ensures that participation is entirely voluntary, respecting free market principles and empowering the employ employees, the employers and businesses to choose their own payment options according to the filing. One of the purposes of the act is to establish a framework for the secure use of Bitcoin by the state of Oklahoma, private businesses and individual residents and another is to authorize Bitcoin as an acceptable medium for transactions, salaries and investments. Senator Ders praised President Trump's pro Bitcoin campaign, adding, bitcoin has arrived into the mainstream of our economy and is unquestionably a significant partner part of the financial future. The legislation puts Oklahoma in a leadership role nationally while ensuring the state embraces the future of financial technology while providing our citizens with more financial options. So kudos to Oklahoma here. Now the Bitcoin Freedom act will be eligible for consideration in the 60th legislative session, which begins February 3rd. Divers is amongst those criticizing high inflation in the US quoting them here if Washington D.C. can ruin something, it likely will and it is certainly ruining the US Dollar. One of my biggest campaign promises was to fight for financial well being of those I represent and do what I could to offset the damage caused by inflation. You feel me? Now Divers, who is also a pastor, also criticized central bank digital currencies, saying they enable government overreach and surveillance. They give central authorities the power to track, control and restrict individual transactions, undermining financial privacy and freedom. And he also says bitcoin promotes financial sovereignty as decentralized, censorship resistant design allows individuals to retain full control over their money free from government interference or inflationary manipulation. Now inflation in the US as we all know they claim to always have it under control at under 3%. But true inflation you could gauge by the price appreciation of food, real estate and things they they typically don't consider when they come up with their fudge numbers to make it seem like everything is under control. You feel me? Next story of the day Fam here's the latest from the Kingdom of Bhutan. Then we'll be discussing a new price prediction model which projects Bitcoin hitting a million which is different from the stock to flow model. I'll be sharing that and then we'll dive into some live Q A and go from there. Again, welcome everyone joining the live the Kingdom of Bhutan continues to leverage new technologies, particularly Bitcoin and the blockchain to boost the economy. According to multiple reports, the city is ready to integrate digital assets like the Biddy, BNB and Ethereum into its strategic reserve. So that's their holy trinity, Bitcoin, BNB and Ether. The mindfulness city near Jellifu is newly established special administrative region which will serve the country's economic hub and tourist attraction. Bhutan's king shared that in a modern city anchored in innovation. So its announcement of a bitcoin strategic reserve isn't surprising for many. And look at the BNB chain announced here a major milestone for the blockchain adoption. Their city Jello Fu Mindfulness City. We're just going to call it gmc. Bhutan's new Special Administration Region has just announced it will hold BNB Bitcoin in ether as part of its strategic reserve. And here's the announcement coming directly from Bhutan. As you can see here, it looks like a beautiful city. God bless. Bhutan is one of the first countries to see the potential of bitcoin and blockchain tech. This small Asian kingdom in the Himalayas started mining thy biddy back in April of 2019 when the world's top digital asset was trading below 7 G's. Meanwhile, Druck holdings and Green Digital served as the country's investment arm. And thanks to an early start in bitcoin mining and adoption, Bhutan now has sizable bitcoin holdings. According to Bitwise Europe, Bhutan currently holds 11000 of the Biddy and this number will continue to grow with mindfulness cities. Recent announcement to add more of the biddy and cryptos to a strategic reserve. The same Bitwise Europe chart also indicates that the US remains the biggest sovereign holder of Bitcoin, but around 198,000 of the ibid. And China is listed second on the list as Bitwise shared here. Based on the latest public info available, the US still remains the largest sovereign holder the biddy with around 198,000 bitcoin in the government's balance sheet, closely followed by China. And as you can see, it's us, it's China, it's United Kingdom, it's Ukraine, it's Bhutan, it's El Salvador, bitcoin country, the Nation of God, Venezuela, Finland and Georgia. And if you don't know, now you know. Bhutan's developing his crypto mining facilities in a phase manner in cooperation with Bit Deer Tech. Initially, the kingdom launched the facility with 100 megawatt capacity and is currently operational. The government aims to start its second facility by the middle of the year with a bigger capacity of 500 megawatts of 5x baby. Interestingly, Bhutan had devised a plan to help offset the notoriously high energy consumption associated with the crypto mining. Unlike other mining companies, the kingdom has leveraged its hydropower resources to run its facilities. Bhutan's 100 megawatt mining center in GDU runs on hydroelectric power and is environmentally friendly. The GDU facility boasts over 30,000 crypto mining machines that can produce three to five Bitcoin each and every day. That's what I call winning. Bitcoin and Crypto are now properly integrated into many government policies, particularly as part of the strategic reserve asset. The United States remains the industry leader, at least in its effort to integrate the bitcoin and cryptos into the national agenda. And as we all know, all eyes on Trump. We have literally 11 more days if we can get the Strategic Reserve bill passed for Bitcoin that would allow United States treasury to not only stockpile Bitcoin but purchase. And Cynthia Lummis proposed a plan Senator Lummis of purchasing 1 million Bitcoin over the course of 5 years which would mean the United States of America purchasing 200000 Bitcoin per year for 5 years. Let me know if you feel that will turn into fruition and that United States will be next to stack thiabid. Now for our feature story of the day. New Bitcoin model predicts when the price will finally hit that coveted one million dollar milestone. This is is different from the stock to flow. So let's break this one down. And again welcome y'all just joining us to the live stream. Bitcoin's 2024 milestone elevated expectations from 2025. Now bolder and more extravagant price predictions are shared in the market. Some boost crypto enthusiast sentiments and others spread the fear of a crash. Oh no, what are we going to do? The prediction of the new quantile model also provides a unique perspective on the bitcoin price rally and when precisely Bitcoin will hit a million per coin. So let's break this one down and by a show of hands in the chat, let me know if you've ever heard of the quantile model. When it comes to bitcoin predictions, multiple bitcoin price predictions for the year suggest a digital asset will reach a million per coin. However, the new quantile bitcoin model disguard such predictions. So for example, stock to flow shows Bitcoin hovering between 250,000 and 1 million per coin from now to the next having in 2028 with an average of 500000 per coin. Whereas this is way different. So stay tuned. The findings acknowledge the bitcoin price performance and its exponential growth, but also question the feasibility of the six figure target. Quantile regression analysis considers Bitcoin's adherence to the power law trends. Many of you have heard of the power law model because we've covered that a few Times here on the pod, it suggests the path to a million targets require a dramatic bubble excursion. That's right. And more Importantly, at least the 40 standard deviation is needed for the bitcoin price to hit a million dollars this year in 2024, where historical trends reveal that it only fluctuates between a negative 10 and a 20. Quoting the model here, to reach 1 million in 2025 would require a bubble excursion of 1.0 in the log and a multiplicative factor of 10 from the present price. And in log terms logarithmic, I.e. 1 over 0.24, which is greater than four standard deviations. For all you math whizzes out there and throughout Bitcoin's price history, we have not seen this even once, nor have we seen it three. I don't know if that looks like a three zero there. It's kind of weird, these numbers that I don't understand the zero with the, the hair. But anyways, I'm not a math whiz. And the prices have stayed overwhelmingly in the range of a negative 10 on the downside to a plus 2 on the maximum. If I'm reading these numbers correctly. I mean, I'm not going to pretend I understand any of this. The quantile findings also challenges Kathy Wood's view on bitcoin. She claims the price can range from 650,000 to one and a half million, which we've also covered numerous times here on the POD depending upon the base and bull cases. Meanwhile, the quantile model statistical findings present different timelines. So let's break down these different timelines, shall we? We have a timeline for 300,000, 1 million, 3 million and $10 million. Now Bitcoin is getting more predictable with declining price volatility. And this, the quasi periodic bubbles play an important role. It indicates the cycle peak followed by correction due to the long term power law trends. And interestingly, this happens every four years. We know the cycle and the cycle had been set as 2013-2017-2021-2025 and 2029, which are next. And ultimately that's always the year preceding the having. And history has shown us we always hit the cycle peak the year preceding the having, in which again we had the having in April of 2024. So we're likely hit the cycle peak. If history is to rhyme this year, let me know where you think that cycle peak shall be. Now back to the quantile bitcoin price prediction. It revealed the timeline for the assets marking the major milestone. And according to this there's a 50 chance Bitcoin might hit 300000 in 2029. So damn bearish. I know, it's not even funny. With two years of uncertainty range, a 50 chance of 1 million happening in 2034. She's Louise with two years of uncertainty age and 3 million in 2039 and 10 million after 2046. I was thinking more like a billion dollars by 2046, which Fidelity is actually once said. But nonetheless, I digress. What are your thoughts? Obviously these aren't the most bullish targets, but nonetheless another price prediction model we can add. You know, I mean, and returning to Kathy Wood's findings, the quantile statistics claim there's only a 20% chance that the Bitcoin price will hit 650,000 by 2030. An even lesser 5% chance of 1 million in 2030. However, a 50 chance of this happening by 2034. Now what do you need to know? Bottom line, the quantile models findings on bitcoin predictions are pretty amusing as they consider the quantile regressions, bubble excursions and historical trend. And according to that, Bitcoin will hit 300000 in 2030 plus or minus two years. And more importantly, the most anticipated 1 million target will be achieved by 2034 within two years. So it could really be 2032 to 2036 because it's, it's not that precise challenging many of the current price projections. But anyways, fam, let me know your thoughts. Where do you feel the bitcoin price is likely to take us for the cycle peak, which I personally think will occur this year? And I want to reiterate some targets. Max Kaiser is calling for 2.2 million within the next 12 to 24 months. Let me know if you agree or disagree. JV is calling for 1.1 million. That's if this obviously is my bull scenario. That's if Trump adopts the strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States of America, sparking the game theory as the global hash wars continue to play out around the world. But yeah, I agree a lot of those targets were extremely bearish. But nonetheless, now you know we've covered the quantile model and if you don't know, now you know, since we're in a super cycle, I don't trust the Quantile model. Agreed. 500,000. 1.5 million cycle peak. You're speaking my language, Oracle. You're speaking my language. Sounds good to me. Keep the comments flowing, fam. I appreciate it. Welcome to the Q and A segment of the live stream. I got the gong. This gong strikes for you, Joseph. And to send Bitcoin back to Price Discovery where it belongs. Hey, now we got 900 people on the stream. Good to have you all here. We're live on Axormal and YouTube. And don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode, Hoddle.