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1929: Bitcoin ‘Monte Carlo’ Model Forecasts $713K Peak in 6 Months
00:35:06
The Monte Carlo model statistical tool signals an 800% Bitcoin price rise peak to $713,000 per BTC by September, 2025.
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JV
1, 2, 3 will that be cash or credit? Credit.
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JV
Express welcome crypto fam to no. 1 Daily Bitcoin pod Bitcoin Major correction. We just touched a new low of 77, 000. I'm going to be breaking down the latest Bitcoin technical analysis. Also breaking news just in U S Byron Donalds says he's proposing a Florida Bitcoin reserve because Bitcoin has proven to be a holder of value over the long term. Having a bitcoin reserve as a part of your portfolio actually helps to provide value for the state long term. Let's go Florida. We'll also be discussing CRYP ETPs see the fourth straight week of outflows totaling 876 million as well as Singapore Exchange to list Bitcoin futures in the second half of this year. I'll be breaking down that latest report as well as Bitcoin may benefit from the US Stablecoin dominance push. Also breaking news Michael Sailor strategy to raise up to $21 billion to purchase more Bitcoin. They currently hold roughly 500,000. Another 21 billion purchase at today's dip would give them roughly another 200, making their total holdings 750,000BTZ. Also Bitcoin Monte Carlo model forecast Bitcoin price action peak of $713,000 per coin within the next six months. September. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good Crypto fam? This is first and foremost a video show, so if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at cryptonewsalerts.net Again, that's crypto news alerts.net Today is Pod episode 1929. I'm your host JV. It's March 10, 2025. We're having a hell of a correction. We just touched a new local bottom of 77,000. 69,000 is the previous cycle all time high from November of 2021 and it may be testing that here soon. Bitcoin's been very corrective this week and unfortunately yesterday we had a very bearish weekly candle close. I'll be pulling up the live charts. We'll be discussing everything you need to know in the markets. If you guys can help spread the word by sharing the stream, let people know over on X that they have to tune in today on the 2 because X is down at least their streaming platform unfortunately. But anyways, without further ado, let's kick it off with our market watch as we can do each and every day. Bitcoin in the blood red red maintaining just above 79, 000 at the time of the live down 5% ether. I haven't seen this type of price action in years. In the 1800 range down 9% on the day XRP down 5%. Just total bloodshed across the markets. Checking out coinmarketcap.com the current crypto market cap all the way down to 2.5 trillion. The Bitcoin market cap all the way down to 1.5 trillion. We got 142 billion worth of volume over 24 hours and the current Bitcoin dominance is sitting at 60.8%. There's the silver lining. The dominance back on the rise. Ether dominance the lowest we have seen in years. 8.7%. Good Lord. And checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours we got story pie and MNT. Which alts if any are you bullish on? For the bull holla. And checking out the crypto bubbles we get a visual perspective on the daily 95% of the market. Rex city and zooming out on the monthly very similar. Only 20, 30, 40, 50% rec city on your average coin here. And checking out the crypto green inferior index. Today we're a 20 back in extreme fear. Yesterday 27, last week at 33 and last month of 44 fear and checking out the time chain calendar. We're currently on block number 887188 and you currently exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1267 SATs. Pick up the SAS, put down the gas, pick up some bitcoin chaps from my man Sergio over at Bitcoin Chaps Net. Let's dive into today's Q&A, aka astrology for the Brosis. Obviously markets are getting wrecked right now. Headline here reads Bitcoin near 78 low. We already touched 77 by the way as stocks dive at a Wall street open. I heard it's one of the worst losses of the stock market as well. Bitcoin sought a rematch with multi month lows March 10 familiar selling a company the start of Wall street trading here you're looking at the one hour chart and shortly I'll be pulling up the live charts. Data showed on trading view Bitcoin down 4.5percent it already touched in the 7778 range. Weakness into the weekly close continued as risk assets across the board suffered a flight to safety. Stocks fell substantially at the open with the S and P and NASDAQ down 2 and 3 and a half percent.
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JV
Kabisi letter said that the U. S Government spending the cutbacks at the hand of the Department of Government Efficiency played a role in the slump. While everyone is focused on the trade war, do not discount the impact of reduced government spending expectations. Government spending and job growth have been fueling the economy. Doge's cuts will be felt and precisely what we're feeling right now. They noted the crypto markets already erased a trillion in market cap in two months. That's right. As I mentioned earlier, the total crypto market cap down to two and a half trillion today Bitcoin market cap all the way down to one and a half trillion. The rally after the U S Strategic Reserve was announced and has been completely erased. Just like that market participants views were mixed as it became unclear where the biddy price action might be put in on a more reliable floor. Rec Capital says going forward it'll be worth watching for Bitcoin to form the lower lows on the price action and the higher lows of the RSI for a bullish divergence to develop as outlined here on the daily chart. And a further post showed that the current bull cycle produced bounces whenever the daily RSI was below a 28. Specifically, the Bitcoin price would either bottom or be between negative 2 and minus 8% away from the bottom. The daily RSI, which is the relative strength index, stood at 33.2 at this current time. Meanwhile, trading firm QCP pin the blame for the broader crypto market downside on the selloffs tied to last month's hack of the Bybit Exchange. Remember the 1.4 billion hack? Today's price selloff may also be exasperated by holders preemptively front running further hacker driver supply driven supply. The hackers have been shown willingness to cash out rather than risk the further losses. Haven't already seen their stolen assets depreciate by 25%. So in response risk reversals have become even more bid for puts over the past 24 hours, reflecting growing concerns over additional selling pressure. They also noted both risk assets are currently trading near their record lows with tariff if risk still looming, volatility can pick up heading into the US Key macro data releases which are set to take place this week, Wednesday for the CPI and Thursday for the ppi. But the big news Florida making big moves. U S Representative Byron Donalds I believe Republican here says he is proposing a Florida Bitcoin reserve because Bitcoin has proven to be a holder of value over the long term. He says having a bitcoin reserve as a part of your portfolio actually helps to provide value for the state long term term. So will Florida go all in on the bidding with the Bitcoin reserve proposal? Let me know your thoughts. And with that being shared we are going to pull up some of the live charts. Warning things are looking pretty grim at the current moment, but how low will she go is the million dollar question. So let's pull up some of the live charts. And again welcome everyone. Just join the live stream. What to do? Let me know where you're tuned in from. As you can see here on the one hour chart we do have a bull target. I don't know how but there's $112,000 target on your screen which would take us to price discovery. So a little silver lining for you even though obviously it's been a hell of a downward trajectory today and yesterday and really all week. But zooming out from there we take a look at the four hour. Any bullishness here? Yeah, we do have some bull targets. 112,000 target on the four hour chart and we have one just north of that. You can see the green target just above maybe 113 barely above. But checking out the daily as you can see here in the daily chart, lots of targets. We do have a rising wedge overall formation. Then we started trading sideways. Then we started descending. Well we start ascending from here is the million dollar question is the bottom in at 77? Are we likely to continue correcting lower, potentially testing the 2021 all time high from the previous cycle of 69G's and happy 69420 just in case. But we do have a couple of bull targets on the daily and 1 is 120 000. These targets were not here the other day so there's a little silver lining for you guys. And we also have 112000 target on the daily. Zooming out from the daily we take a look at the weekly. Unfortunately we did have a very bearish weekly close as you can see in that big mega bear candle and we're already forming another pretty bearish week. But we're just getting started. It's obviously the first day of the new week, so too early to tell but you can still see the sexy cup and handle target sitting at 124,000. A little silver lining there in the weekly. And zooming out from the weekly we take a look at the monthly and thus far the month of March has been descending. Unfortunately, even though we started off on the right foot, whatever gains we had from, you know, the announcement of Trump with the strategic Bitcoin reserve, we've lost it all and then some unfortunately. But where do you think the bitty price will likely go over the course of the next 20 days? So we can you can close out the month of March before entering April and closing out the first quarter.
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JV
A 2025 you guys let me know. But let's continue with the news. Let's first discuss the ETF outflows which have not been helping the pre low bitty price action ETP see the fourth straight week of the outflows totaling $876 million in losses during the past trading week after posting record weekly outflows of 2.9 billion last week. So last week was worse. Crypto ETPs continue their downwards trend bringing the four week total outflows almost 5 billion. Damn. And while the pace of outflows slowed, investor sentiment remain bearish. And the analyst James Butterfield said the market has shown signs of capitulation. Well, speaking of capitulation, I did see a tweet of Peter Schiff purchasing a treasure to start his own Bitcoin strategic reserve. I mean that's a sign of the time. I mean Bitcoin ETPs were the primary driver of outflows accounting for almost 800 million 85% of last week total short. Bitcoin ETPs which are exchange traded products, saw outflows almost 20 million, the most since December of 2024. Cumulative outflows reach almost 5 billion over the past four weeks. So that's over a billion per week. The year to date inflows drop to 2.6 billion. Total assets under management declined by 39 billion to 142 billion, the lowest point since been November of 2024, driven by both the negative price movements and sustained outflows. This bearish sentiment was also observed amongst a wide range of alts last week with ether ETPs seeing 89 million of outflows. TRON and A were also amongst the most notable ETP losers losing 32 million and 2.4 million. Now Fidelity sees the largest outflows amongst the ETPs. Amongst them, Fidelity saw the largest outflow at 201 million, bringing its year to date outflow to 159 million. And Black Rock, the world's largest ETF was the second largest loser with weekly outflows amounting to 193 million. Despite seeing significant selling of the past few weeks, Black Rock, still the biggest crypto holder amongst other issuers with 52.8 billion in assets under management and 3 billion in year to date outflows. Other major losses in the US were ARC and 21 shares which recorded 164 million of outflows. Year to date flows still standing positive 110 million. Also we have pro shares ETFs were amongst the few US crypto ETFs that did not see the outflows recording a mere 15 million of inflows. So yeah, a lot of people dumping their ETF positions right now. You know, Wall Street's loving it, you know the market makers are loving it as long and short traders continue to get liquidated across the board. Yeah, I mean as this massive volatility continues its mind boggling. Next story, let's discuss Singapore. Headline read Singapore Exchange to list Bitcoin futures In the second half of this year, Singapore Exchange sgx, the largest exchange group in Singapore, reportedly plans to debut Bitcoin perpetual futures in the second half of this year. SGX is working to introduce Bitcoin perpetual futures for institutional and professional investors in an effort to expand and institutional market access, according to a Bloomberg report. Excuse me. A spokesperson at SGX reportedly said the company effects expects to offer a trusted alternative for trading crypto futures with its AA2 rating over at Moody's strictly restricting retail investors, SGX plan Bitcoin products are awaiting approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Bitcoin futures fall under the category of crypto derivatives, which offer investors the ability to trade on value derived from the price of the underlying crypto as well as speculate on the future price movements without holding the actual underlying asset. Crypto futures allow investors to speculate on the price of a certain date and time, while perpetual futures offer no expiration date. So perpetual futures versus traditional futures as you can see the difference here pre specified delivery date on perpetual nope. But traditional yes. As far as regulation on perpetual it's unregulated on traditional futures regulated and the funding rate on perpetual of course yes, traditional no. So the potential arrival of the perpetual bitcoin futures SGX comes amid Singapore becoming the global leader in crypto and blockchain acceptance. Let me know if any of y'all have been to Singapore with the mass adopting crypto friendly regulations and doubling of the number of the crypto license instances in 2024. And according to Bloomberg, SGX is not the only exchange seeking the launch of bitcoin futures trading. Over in Singapore, EDX Markets, a crypto asset firm backed by Citadel, reportedly announced plans to offer crypto futures in the City state in January of this year. Then March 4, Bloomberg reported Japan's Osaka Dajima Exchange, a Japanese listed derivatives exchange, was also looking for the approval to list bitcoin futures in Japan. Konichiwa. And if approved, Dajima could become one of the first traditional exchanges in Asia to handle the bitcoin futures Coin Telegraph approach, SGX as well as MAS for a comment regarding the perpetual introduction of the bitcoin futures on the exchange and have yet to hear a response back, but mass adoption coming Asia there's big money out there in Singapore, you guys already know, so that's pretty big deal. Anyways, next story of the day, let's discuss these stablecoins aka CBDCs. Bitcoin may benefit from the US stablecoin dominance push. That's right, the US push to maintain the dollar's dominance through stablecoin adoption could have unintended benefits for bitcoin as it emerges as a potential national reserve asset. During the White House crypto summit a few days back, US Treasury Secretary said the American government would use stablecoins to ensure the US dollar remains the world's global reserve currency. And FYI, stablecoin is just another term for cbdc. So they can say yeah, we ban CBDC is not under my watch, but they can just launch the stable coin which is ultimately the same thing. At the end of the day, quoting them here, we are going to put a lot of thought into the stable coin regime and as Trump directed, we're going to keep the US Dollar the dominant reserve currency of the world. Meanwhile, the Treasury Secretary also repeated the Trump's administration promise and the war on crypto and committed to rolling back the previous IRS guidance and punitive regulatory measures. Look at this handsome man right here. I mean, the comments came just before Trump signed the executive order establishing Bitcoin reserve using crypto forfeited from the government criminal cases. And while the order does not involve direct FB or federal Bitcoin purchases, it represents a peter shift and how the government views yeah, you can say that again. Obviously Bitcoin may benefit from growing stablecoin adoption and push for more regulatory clarity. According to to Amri Hanover, General manager of GEMS trade blockchain Launchpad. Quoting him here. If Trump's policy strengthens US Financial dominance, then Europe's reluctance and wait to see approach could weaken its economic leverage. This divide creates two market realities. US accelerates Bitcoin's institutional adoption Drawing capital in the EU prioritizes the compliance risking a capital shift to the U S markets. Meanwhile, two major bills wait congressional approval. We have the Stablecoin bill and the Market Structure Bill which aim to help to lift the regulatory uncertainty around the US Crypto industry. Meanwhile, pro crypto lawmakers have focused on two major legislative priorities Stablecoins and general market structure clarity, which would help lift the regulatory uncertainty around the US Crypto industry. However, no related bills have yet been passed by Congress. The growing profits of stablecoin issuers could contribute to bitcoin investments for the strengthening itself its status as a store of value. Tether usdt, the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin said it would invest 15 of its net profit into bitcoin to diversify its back and assets. Tether's bitcoin holdings proved to be lucrative when the firm posted a record 4 1/2 billion profit just from the first quarter of last year, approximately 1 billion stem from operating profits derived from the U. S Treasury holdings. While the remaining 3.5 billion comprised of the market to market gains and the firm's bitcoin holdings as well as gold position. That's right. Tether's address currently holds over 6.8 billion worth of the biddy making it the world's sixth largest holder. Tether's Bitcoin holdings earned the company 5 billion in profits during last year out of the total 13 billion yearly profit. And there you have al. And if you don't know now you know. But anyways, let's just continue getting through the news here, man. Next story of the day, the latest from the gigachad Michael Saylor. This is the big news of the day. I mean I woke up to see this like whoa. Michael Saylor's Strategy to raise $21 billion. That's a blackjack baby. To purchase more of the biddy as if he doesn't have enough. I mean his company only holds 500000 of them. They desperately need some more bitcoin. Hence my advice for everyone watching. If you're questioning bitcoin right now, I highly advise you to sell it so this man can buy it. He needs it more than you. Clearly Michael Saylor, the world's largest public corporate bitcoin holder. Over at Strategy is looking to raise up to 21 billion in fresh capital to purchase more of the bidding. March 10 Strategy announced it entered into a new sales agreement that would allow the firm to issue and sell shares of its 8% Series A perpetual strike preferred stock to raise funds for general corporate purposes, including potential bitcoin acquisitions. It's going up forever, Laura. And as part of their agreement deal dub the ATM program because he's just like the bitcoin alchemist out here. Strategy expects to make sales in a disciplined manner like a shaolin monk over an extended period taking into account the trading price and volumes of the perpetual strike prefer stock at the time of sale. I dare say Michael Saylor, the bitcoin alchemist, is the abbot of the Shaolin temple. Yeah, that's right. Strategy intends to use the net proceeds from the ATM program for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of the bitty and working capital. According to the firm that file with the SEC and shout out to the chairman of the SEC NIP. The announcement comes from his strategy holding over 499000 of the biddy worth 41 billion which had acquired at an aggregate amount of 33 billion. And their average purchase price is 66,000 so there's still billions of dollars in the black. The company previously disclosed plans to issue and sell shares of Class A common stock to raise up to 21 billion in equity and 21 billion in fixed income securities over the next three years in order to accumulate more bitcoin under the 2121 plan. That's a double blackjack baby. And so far this year, Strategy publicly announced six Bitcoin acquisitions, buying a total of 52,696 Bitcoin since January 13th. The company's current Bitcoin yield amounts to 6.9 year to date, with bitcoin currently trading in the gutter. And if you don't know, ask your mother Strategies Bitcoin yield, an indicator representing the percentage change of the ratio between the bitcoin holdings and assumed diluted shares, amounted to 74% in 2024. But this year 2025, the company expects to reach Bitcoin yield target of 15%. Formerly known as Micro Strategy Strategy emerged as one of the most prominent companies of the crypto industry after it announced the bitcoin reserve and purchasing its first bitcoin all the way back in August of 2020. Let me know how many of you front ran Micro Strategy AKA Strategy in the Gigachad. That means if you bought Bitcoin prior to August of 2020, then you tell Michael Sailor to go home and get your shine. BOX Strategies Bitcoin Strategy laid the foundation for grown bitty adoption by many traditional finance companies such as Elon's Tesla and Japan's Meta Planet. Konichiwa. And here's a recent tweet from Sailor. When you get invited to discuss digital assets at White House, make sure you wear your orange tie. How dare Trump rock in a yellow tie when he could have went orange. I mean, I don't get it. Sailor Strategies co founder, former CEO is one of the key crypto industry leaders guiding the U S administration. As you know, Sailor has been friends with the Trump family for decades, according to Sailor himself. So he's definitely in his ear. And as a major bitcoin advocate, Sailor is known for pushing the US Government to boost his bitcoin holdings, urging Trump to purchase up to 25% of total Bitcoin supply, which is 525,000 Bitcoin. That's actually wrong. It's actually 5.25 million Bitcoin if they were to acquire 25 of the supply. But I digress. Stack thy bitty. And again, if you're questioning should I hold my bitcoin right now? No Sell it. Michael needs your bitcoin more than you do and I'll leave it at that. Now for our feature story of the day fam the Bitcoin Monte Carlo model is forecasting a $713,000 Bitcoin price peak within six months which would land on September. So let's break this baby down, shall we? Bitcoin registered a daily and weekly close of 80,000 and we've been tanking since. Unfortunately with today's low all the way down to 77 000. Bitcoin also dropped below its key 200 day exponential moving average for the second time in two weeks, which is also not a good look indicating further high time frame weakness in the charts. I have a strong feeling we may be testing 69000 here soon Broski. As you guys let me know your thoughts. And while the Crypto Greed and Fear index is all the way back in extreme fear, one bitcoin market simulation still highlights the bullish projections for the latter half at 2025. So let's not get it twisted. Even though we're down roughly $40,000 from the top, do keep in mind this is the year preceding the having. Back in April of last year we had a having and if you follow the cycles the year preceding the having we always hit new all time high. Now some may dare say the the all time high is in JV. We hit 109 on Inauguration Day on January 20th. I dare say you ain't seen nothing yet. But anyways the Monte Carlo model is signaling an 800% Bitcoin price upside. So let's break her down, shall we? Crypto Quant Crypto researcher Monte Carlo simulation uses this to analyze the bitty price providing six month forecast for the crypto crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method using random sampling to simulate the price projections.
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JV
It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and the market trends. Here you're looking at the Bitcoin Monte Carlo projections based on the initial price of 82. The study estimated a mean final price of of 258 by the end of September of this year. However, on the broader scale, the bullish the price was expected to fluctuate between 51 GS. Holy. Imagine if we tank that low and a return to 713,000 per coin at the 95th percentile. Send it. However, it's important to note that the Monte Carlo model relies strongly on the geometrical Brownian motion model, well of course, which assumes that the asset value follows a random path with a constant parameter drift. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is built into the model, capturing long term historical performance and patterns while adopting to the future shift. Essentially, the Monte Carlo analysis remains as fitting as rolling the dice. Last week. Quant also highlighted a correlate correlation between the total crypto market cap and the global liquidity index, indicating the total market cap value may reach new highs of above 4 trillion in the second quarter of this year, which is right around the corner only three weeks out from the second quarter, just FYI. But anyways, obviously we're having a massive correction. You guys let me know if you see 713,000 in the cards potentially by September. Or do you think we hit the mean, which is ultimately like the medium average which they're projecting to be 258,000 by the end of September. Yay. Nay. Holl at your boy. Let me know and I'm going to read your comments out loud. Welcome everyone to the Q and A segment of the live stream. We're only live on X. I'm sorry, we're only live on YouTube and rumble. We're not live on X today. We tried multiple times but their system is down so there's no streaming today on X and I I believe they're under attack still. JV meme coin. Let's go. You won't get us lizard individuals. I've been hijacked by the lizard folk. Sell bitcoin. Sell bitcoin. And don't forget to check out crypto newsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.