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1956: If 2020 Cycle Repeats Bitcoin Will Drop to $60K Before Rising 10x to $600K
00:36:11
If Bitcoin now falls 45% from the top and then goes up 10x in a similar timeframe that would be a $600,000 Bitcoin in late 2026.
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- [00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [00:18]
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- [01:01]
Ryan Reynolds
1 Daily Bitcoin Pod. In today's show I'll be sharing the latest technical analysis as we bottomed out at 74, 420 before the current recovery. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market as well as breaking news. Pakistan appoints Banan's former CEO CZ as their strategic advisor on cryptocurrency. Also, the Bitcoin hash rate tops 1 zeta hash and a historic first according to the latest tracker. We'll also be discussing crypto ETP shed 240 million last week am current U. S trade tariffs. We'll also be discussing McGregor's token creators to refund the bidders after a failed launch. That's right, they even hit their goal of a million dollars. I told you guys to stay away from that. We'll also be discussing Michael Sailor's strategy halt Bitcoin buys despite a dip below 87 GS. Actually the dip was below, you know, in the 74 range. We'll also be discussing if history repeats back in 2020 the market crashed 45 and a 45 crash from the 100 would take us down to the 60,000 range before soaring 10x. That's right, a skyrocket 10x from there would take us to 600,000 per coin. If history is to rhyme or repeat, we'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much More in today's show. Yo, what's good crypto fam? This is first and foremost a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at crypto news alerts.net Again, that's crypto news alerts.net Today is Pod episode 1956. I'm your host, JV. It's March 7th, 2025. Hell of a volatility ride for bitcoiners today. We dropped bottomed out at 74. 420. Happy 420 for the Broskis. We recovered 80 and we're currently at 78. Three at the time of the live stream. Let's kick it off with our market watch. As you can see on coin360 bitcoin, nice little recovery from 74. Ether still down 4% on the day, all the way down to 15. We saw it touch in the 14 range earlier. XRP down 5%. Trading at 190. A lot of the top alts correcting. And in the red. Uh, checking out coin market cap dot com. Uh, the current crypto market cap sits just shy of 2.5 trillion. Uh, the Biddy market cap just above 1.5 trillion. Uh, we have 224 billion in volume which is high up 222% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin dominance has been on the climb past couple of days. Currently 62 and a half percent. Ether dominance has been on the decline all the way down to seven and a half percent which is the lowest we have seen it in years. And checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. Can't make this up folks. Fart Coin lead in the back letter RIP. Fart coin up 15 on the day followed by hyper liquid up 8% followed by Pendle up 7 point percent. Which alts if any are you bullish on? For the bull holla. And checking out the crypto bubbles, we get a visual perspective starting here on the day. Safe to say I'd say 6040 green over red. Zooming out on the weekly 9010 red over green. Zooming out on the monthly very similar 9010 red over green. A lot of the alts pretty much wrecked. 10, 20, 30, 40%. And checking out the crypto greed and fear index today we're back in extreme fear. The silver lining is the lower this number goes, the more likely of a pump. And today we're 23. Yesterday at 34, last week of 34 and last month a 28 in fear. And checking out the infamous time chain calendar. We have 158636 blocks into the having of 2028. We're currently on block number 891364 and you currently exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1277 stats. Pick up the stats. Put down the gats. Pick up some Bitcoin caps from my man Sergio over at BitcoinCaps.net headline reads Bitcoin Price Retakes 80, 000 as US Void Black Monday Meltdown that's right, Broskis. Bitcoin sought a relief rally into the April 7th Wall street open as US stocks rebounded from a 4% loss. You can see Bitcoin bottomed at precisely 74420 and I'm not making that up. That's the exact number via Coinbase via the hourly chart Trading view showed the area of around 80,000 forming a focus for bitcoin after the pair hit a five month low. The fallout from the US Trade tariff continue to ricochet across the global markets, with Asia stocks closing the day with a considerable loss. At the same time, reports of a potential 90 day pause and the tariffs going live against the background and negotiations with over 50 US trading partners help pair the losses in the futures markets ahead of the open and allowed the S and P and Nasdaq to avert a Black Monday 1987 style implosion. According to Kabisi Letter, NASDAQ futures were down nearly 7% at their lowest point last night. They also acknowledged the S and P fallen more than 20% from the February all time high, opening in bear market territory for the first time since 2022. And here's a look at those this episode is brought to you by Indeed. When your computer breaks, you don't wait for it to magically start working again. You fix the problem.
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JV
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- [06:39]
Ryan Reynolds
Stocks via the charts S P now check it Continuing trading firm QCP Capital called international engagement over the tariffs remarkable, quoting them here. Yes, as the world scrambles to secure a seat at the table, markets are likely to remain on edge. And they also said the President, showing no signs of backing down, remarked that he doesn't want stocks to fall. But sometimes you have to take medicine. And with confidence in the credibility of the US Economy hanging in the balance, the coming days could prove too bitter a pill for the global markets and for Trump himself if meaningful progress isn't made before Wednesday. Now meanwhile, Bitcoin attempted to solidify support in the mid 70,000 range, having come within speaking spitting distance of the old all time high. And I want to remind you guys, we've never seen bitcoin go before. Basically after having the following cycle it's never returned to the previous below the previous cycle peak high, meaning we have never seen it go back. We shouldn't be anticipating it going back under 69, but we have retraced 45 in 2020. I was studying the charts earlier and I'll discuss this in a little more details. We dropped 45 from the all time high a cycle. If that were to repeat from 109 the current all time high, that means we could potentially drop to 60. But the silver lining after we did drop, you know, post I call it novid era in 2020 in March we dropped to 4,000 and then we soared within 12 months to 60,000. And then by November of 2021 we hit the cycle peak of 69,000. So if history is to repeat we could potentially drop to 60 before climbing to 600,000. Just FYI and I'll show you what I'm talking about in a little bit quoting Glass Node for now, Bitcoin seems to have found support of 74. This aligns with the first major supply cluster below 80 over 50,000 Bitcoin at 742. This level is mostly held by investors who have been active for 5 months steadily raising their cost basis under 10 of March, after which they remain dormant. They also point out that the lows of 70 was another 175,000 BTC of cost basis cluster clusters. The single largest level within this range was 716 holding around 41,000 BTC. The next more substantial substantial support 69.9where 68000 BTC are held. And breaking news Pakistan interesting appoints banana former CEO CZ as their strategic advisor on crypto. Ultimately, Pakistan's crypto czar is CZ who had to pay that 4.3 billion dollar fine to the Department of Justice for allegedly, you know, doing some shady business. But nonetheless that's pretty interesting and I promise to pull up some of the charts. So check this out. This is pretty mind boggling. We'll start with the one hour and work our way back. This is live chart Action Jackson via Coinbase Satisfaction via Trading View the one hour chart does show we did drop all the way down again 74, 420 is the bottom. We recovered to 80 and now we're currently at 78. 5. We do have an orange bear target scenario and play at 73 445. Let me know if you think the bottom is in or you think we're likely to continue correcting amongst amongst the terrafor with the Trumpster and the world here. Zooming out on the four hour we also as you can see we had the big red candle down to the 74420 then we had a couple of recovery candles and here we are. We also have a bottom Target sitting at 73.4in the four hour chart. Zooming out a little further, taking a look at a daily, the daily chart you can see big red formation unfortunately but nonetheless we're starting to bounce back. We do have a bull scenario in the red at 113 which would take us back to price discovery. Again it's currently 1093 which was achieved all the way back in January on inauguration day believe it or not. And we have the bear scenario sitting all the way down at 49 and we also have one just shy of 69. You guys let me know if you think 69 will maintain or do you think we'll retest the previous cycle all time high which we have never dipped below before in the history of bitcoin. You guys let me know your thoughts. Zooming out a little further, we're going to take a look at a weekly and the weekly chart still has the 124,000 cup and handle target on the screen and obviously we've been trading sideways and correcting the past few weeks. Zooming out a little further, we'll take a look at a monthly and thus far April has been disappointing. Yeah since January has been downhill. But let's see if we can Recover here in Q2 as the month is still early for April. Before we get that close at the end of the month, let's continue with the news fam Next headline of the day.
- [11:31]
JV
This episode is brought to you by Amazon Business. How can you free up your team from time consuming office tasks? Amazon Business empowers leaders to not only streamline purch purchasing, but better support their teams so they can focus on strategy and growth. Free up your teams and focus on your future. Learn more about the technology, insights and Support available@AmazonBusiness.com Let's see Bitcoin.
- [11:56]
Ryan Reynolds
The silver lining here though we just cracked it to like a multi month low. The hash rate just broke out. Hit a zeta hash or zeta hash. I don't know how even pronounce it because the number is so huge. I don't think I've ever pronounced that number before, but nonetheless, good sign for the network the bitcoin network hash rate topped 1 zeta hash per second for the first time in Bitcoin's 16 year history. Congratulations Prelo biddy going up forever. Laura According to several blockchain data sources, the bitcoin hash rate crossed the milestone. It was actually 4-5-@ the peak 1.025 zeta hashes per second according to meme pool space data, while the bitcoin frame data said it hit 1.02 zeta hashes per second the day earlier. Data from Coin wars says bitcoin hash rate soared to as high as 1.1 z a hash per second April 4th at block height 890 915. However, the same data indicates that the Bitcoin first cross 1 zeta hash on March 24th. Excuse me. The differences result from the varying approaches used to calculate the hash, such as when the block times and difficulty adjustments are measured with the bitcoin nodes and minor pools are used to pull the data for more and more Bitcoin cipher punk Jameson Lop also previously pointed out that estimating the bitcoin hash rate with one trailing block as opposed to five can result in a difference of over 04 zeta hashes per second. Quoting them here, viewing the raw hash rate metric can be deceiving due to the random variations of the block times. So there you have it. But despite the discrepancies, the feature highlights the massive amount of computational power and increasing decentralization of the bitty network, making it more secure than ever and significantly reducing the likelihood of a 51 attack. That's another silver lining. The network has never been as secure as it currently is. The bitcoin network reported a rise of 1 zeta hash per second equivalent to a thousand exahashes per second, marking a 1000x increase since late January of 2016, literally two halvings ago when the Bitcoin first hit 1x a hash per second for the first time. The second largest proof of work crypto network is Litecoin currently boasts a hash rate of almost two and a half PETA hashes per second and making it around 40,000 times less computationally powerful than the pre little bitty going up for ever Laura and as Pierre shares, the bitcoin mining hash rate is rapidly approaching one's let a hash and we officially hit the top now. He also noted there's a huge rise of hash rate coinciding with more commercial bitcoin mining firms competing to solve the B blocks of the recent years. Quoting them here, Miners are doubling down, expanding sites and plugging into more efficient machines. Marathon holdings is the largest bitty miner with more than 50 extra hashes per second of computational power, with the largest share of the hash rate channel to the Bitcoin mining pools, Foundry USA Pool and Ant Pool according to the Hash Rate Index. And at least 24 publicly listed bitty companies have machines set up to mine the biddy. And amongst the other large miners contributing to the hash rate or riot platforms Core Scientific, Clean Spark and Hut 8, which recently just formed a strategic partnership with the Trump family. Now the Bitcoin hash rate soars as the bitcoin plummets on recession fears. Again the silver lining and quoting Max Kaiser the bitcoin price follows the hash rate. So even though the fiat equivalent is sinking the the bright picture here is it's only a matter of time before we recapture all time highs, especially considering a sier proceeding to having I do not think the cycle peaks week is in at 109 because typically we rise 510 20x post having next story of the day Broskis let's Discuss the Bitcoin ETPs the Exchange Traded Products. That's right, crypto ETP shed 240 million last week amid the U S trade tariffs. Crypto exchange traded products saw renewed outflows last week with 240 million and investor capital pulled, according to the April 7 report. The outflows reversed two consecutive weeks of inflows that total 870 million, leaving the total digital asset ETP holdings at about 133 billion. The new outflows likely excuse me, reflect investor caution in response to the global trade tariffs imposed by the US and concerns over their potential threat to the global economic growth. Coin shares Research head of research James Butterfill shared not to be confused with Butter Bean, Bitcoin ETPs led the downturn 207 million of the weekly outflows and as a result, monthly flows turned negative for the first time in the year, with 138 million in net outflows over the past month. And despite the monthly outflows turning red, the Bitcoin ETPs still maintain a significant amount of inflows year to date totaling 1.3 billion. As outlined right here. Bitcoin lead in the pack followed by Ethereum, Multi Asset, Salana, XRP Sui and Litecoin. Check it Grayscale leads the ETP outflows That's right. Crypto ETPs by major crypto investment firm Grayscale led the losses amongst issuers last week with 95 million withdrawn from its products. Grayscale's year to date outflows now stand at 1.4 billion. Damn. The highest amongst all the ETB providers. At one point Grayscale was like the largest holder of Bitcoin. They had like over 600,000 bitcoin and then they just been At Capella University.
- [17:02]
JV
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- [17:32]
Ryan Reynolds
Outflows since the E test went live when they converted their, you know, product from a trust, you know, Grayscale Bitcoin trust to the ETF. Ironic enough and now what's its name? BlackRock, the largest asset manager is the one crushing it. The most over 50 billion worth of inflows since they launched. Speaking of BlackRock, they still maintain 3.2 billion year to date inflows after seeing 56 million in outflows last week. Also, crypto ETPs by Pro Shares and ARK Invest are the only two other major issuers that still have influence flows year to date mounting to almost 400 million and 146 million respectively. And if you don't know now you know bros. But yeah, next Story of the day Brosis Conor McGregor coin. I warned you it launched yesterday and I said I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot poll and I express why you should stay away from it. Well headline today Conor McGregor's token creators to refund bidders after a failed launch. Womp womp. Investors who bid on the real Token promoted by former UF champ McGregor will receive a full refund after the project failed to even raise 1 million minimum requirement. That's pretty sad, but I'm proud of you guys for not supporting the quoting them here. We need to be real. We didn't hit our minimum raise. The developers of the real Token shared Real World Gaming said in the April 6 post. All bids will be refunded in full. And you know what? I respect that. Give the people their money back. It was a failed project from the start. This is not the End though they said the team only managed to raise 392,000 in USD SDC over a 28 hour pre sale April 5th and 6th, less than half of the minimum required. And that's with Conor McGregor tweeting about it telling everyone this is going to be the next big game changer in crypto. I called and I'm proud of that call because I was obviously right. The public sale of the 60 million real tokens 3% of the total 2 billion real supply initially targeted a fully diluted value of 120 million with a sealed bid off auction starting at 6 cents per token. Only 668 participants were involved. That's an epic fail when you got Hawk to a girl having more successful launches than Conor McGregor. McGregor, the UFC fighter turned entrepreneur and Ireland political candidate. He claims he's going to run for president in Ireland. Initially claim his token would be more legitimate than any other celebrity endorsed token with frequency resulted in which, you know, obviously there's rug pulls every launch. This isn't, this isn't is quoting him. This isn't some celebrity endorsed token. It's a real game changer that will improve the crypto ecosystem as well as make real change in the world. So much for that real change in the world. Here's a message from Conor himself. It's red panty night when you signify me. Yeah, back at your back at home with your wife. It's a celebration. I mean you can't make this up. He literally tweeted ladies and gentlemen, this is real. It's a celebration. People are always saying about the talk.
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JV
And I talk and I talk and.
- [20:27]
Ryan Reynolds
I talk, but guess what? I back it up. He backs it up. Though the real token launched in the middle of a sharp market downturn. I'm sure that didn't help him. With bitcoin falling while the US stocks on estimated 6.6 trillion in losses April 3rd and 4th, the largest two day loss ever as Trump's tariff plans continue to raise recession fears. Meanwhile, meme coins have also been cooling off since the launch of the official Trump meme coin January 18th of 2025 as well as the Libra token scandal involving President Javier Malay in Argentine Argentina in late February also exasperated the downwards Trend. The once 100 billion meme coin market has now fallen below 44 billion and is down 13% over the last 24 hours. Here's my speculation. I think more and more celebrities will continue to launch more meme tokens now the SEC and regulators have deemed that they're not unregistered securities. So if the hawk to a girl can get away with the rug pull, why wouldn't endless celebrities continue to do the same thing pillaging the crypto market? But there you have it again. I'm proud of you guys for not supporting the and if you don't support it, we see less of the in the market. All right, next story of the day, we'll discuss the latest from Sailor and then we'll discuss, you know, a silver lining that if we do repeat the 2020 cycle and drop a collective of 45 from the top, which would mean a 60000 bottom that we can ascend 10x pathetic. Potentially hitting 600, 000. But first, Michael Sailor Strategy Halts Bitcoin Buys despite a dip below 77 I don't know why it says 87. Maybe that's a typo. We know we just tapped 74, 420 here this morning. But yeah, Michael Sailor's firm strategy, the world's largest publicly listed corporate holder, the biddy did not add to his bitcoin holdings last week as bitcoin price has now bottomed out at 74, 420. My thinking is he's probably buying behind the scenes and hasn't announced it yet, but that's just my thinking. Let me know your thoughts. Lowe's is the destination for Ego outdoor power equipment this spring. See what's new and exclusive like the 17 inch string trimmer with line IQ technology that auto feed seeds to save you time and the 22 inch select cut self propelled mowers with a multi blade system for precise cutting. Shop EGO Days happening now during Spring Fest at Lowe's we help you save. Selection varies by location while supplies last. In a filing with the US SEC April 7, Strategy announced it made no bitcoin purchases during the week of March 31 to April 6. So I didn't pull the trigger for this week. The decision followed a week of heightened market volatility with bitcoin surging as high as 87, 000 April 2nd after starting the week around 82 according to Coin Gecko. Maybe he anticipated a further dip and it was just a strategic decision considering we dropped significantly from them from there. Bitcoin fell below 80 April 6, a significant discount from the average price of Strategy's previous 22, 2000 bitcoin purchase, which was its most recent, which they announced on March 31st in the period from March 31st April 6th, strategy also did not sell any shares of their Class A common stock, which it tends to use for financing the bitcoin buys, according to the filing. And as of April 7, Strategy held an aggregate amount of 528, 000 Bitcoin bought for 35 billion at an average price of 67, 458 per BTC, quoting Strategy B's report here. Our unrealized loss on digital assets for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 was 5.91 billion, which we expect will result in a net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, partially offset by a related income tax benefit of $1.69 billion. Bitcoin is the most volatile because it is the most useful and while Strategy avoided buying bitcoin last week, their co founder Mikey Sailor, the giga Chad, continued posting about the crypto asset superiority on social media, quoting Amir. Bitcoin is most volatile because it's the most useful, sailor wrote on a post soon after. Bitcoin tumbled from the intra week high of 87 on April 2 to below 82 following the tariff announcement by the POTUS, the Trumpster and quoting Sailor Bitcoin is the most volatile because it is the most useful. Today's market reaction to the terrorists As a reminder, inflation is just a tip of the iceberg. Capital face, dilution from taxes, regulation, competition, obsolescence and unforeseen events. Bitcoin offers resilience in a world full of the hidden risk. And if you don't know now, you know Bitty Brosis all right, now for our featured story of the day. If Bitcoin were to repeat the previous cycle, that means we can potentially drop down to $60,000. Hence a 65% crash from the top before soaring 10x potential hit 600,000 if not 2025 then by late 2026. So here's a post that caught my attention by Luke Broyles. I'm going to read it for you. You should be able to see this on your screen. He wrote this on X five years ago we had a stock market crisis in 2020 that was post Novid. Bitcoin fell 40% in one day. One day I remind you. So what's a 5% correction? People panicking when we have dropped 40 40% in a single day and a total of 25%. Collectively the S&P 500 fell almost 10. On that same day Bitcoin bottomed at 4000. I know what I did. I made one of my larger, you know, bitcoin purchases. I believe I had like 20 grand cash sitting around and I bought five bitcoin for four grand. What did you guys do post Covid crash? Let me know. Then it went up 17x in the rebound from the crisis as we printed money. Pretty little money. Printer go brrr. Now if Bitcoin falls 45 from the top and does a 10x in a similar time frame, we'd see a 600000 biddy in late 2026 which obviously next year. I don't care. Bitcoin is 50000 or 600000 next year. It is lower risk and more humanitarian than corporate paper. I agree with that. And if you're more worried about your bitcoins being worth more or less next year then the 10 million going to die from inefficiency in the next year. You and I aren't in the same mission. Stocks had a higher human cost, less upside and higher downside risks in time frames over two years no matter what the prices do. I expect the S P500 to fall 80 against Bitcoin in the next five years. Let me know if you agree or disagree with that. I also suspect in 5 years 60,000 will sound as cheap as 4000,000, and most will forget the pain of April 2025 like most forgot March of 2020. My only fear is for those with sub 5% exposure which is for basically everyone I know besides me. The deeper this market crash the more terrifying the big print in the next 18 months. And as you can see, I mean the chart says it all. You can see the 03-12-2020 post Novid outbreak economic shutdown. The big red taking us down 40% in a single day for a collective drop of 65% from the top. And then we resurrected and bada boom we bought some biddies and prelo biddy been doing its thing. Do you think history is likely to repeat? Let me know your thoughts. I'm also going to pull up the X account of the High priest. The one and only.
- [28:01]
JV
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- [28:32]
Ryan Reynolds
Let's see some of his most recent posts here. Shout out Cubo over there. In El Salvador obviously they've been teaching kids the education is phenomenal out there teaching people about the biddy. Also the bitcoin office continues to buy buying the dippity dip dip. Their holdings of El Salvador is now 6140 BTC valued at roughly $481 million. They purchased eight Bitcoin in the past seven days and they purchased 36 Bitcoin in the past 30 days. I personally love that they, you know allow us to see exactly what they're doing and it's all public. This is back at around the 1987 stock market crash and this is a classic Max Kaiser clip. Stacy reminds us in El Salvador you can just experience freedom. It is insane. You verify for yourself. Visit El Salvador freedom country and definitely one of my favorite places I've ever visited. Shout out bitcoin country doing big things. And of course President Bukele. Also some other posts. Hash precedes the the price As I mentioned the bitcoin price follows the hash rate off the back of the news that the bitcoin just hit a record high 1 zeta hash. For the very first time in bitcoin history Bitcoin dominance hits levels not seen since 2020 as the altcoins melt down. That's right, the bitcoin dominance just achieved 62 and a half percent dominance ether dominance the lowest I have seen it in years. Japan is down 10%. Bitcoin is down 6%. Decoupling back on the menu. Bitcoin withstood the fifth worst two day window for stocks since 1945. Barely even flinched. Good reminder. Also Justin, Japanese prime minister says he's ready to visit the U. S to negotiate tariffs with President Trump. Apparently Trump is not budging. Some were anticipating Trump to change his stance but seems he's doubling down. No, this isn't a crypto meme coin. This is is the Japanese stock market. Look at that, straight up plummeting. So it'll be an interesting discussion with the prime minister of Japan and the Trumpster. Someone put here to be clear of China's yuan which is their local currency has an abrupt devaluation. It will be due to the China running out of dollars to defend the artificial peg against the US dollar. China desperately needs a strong un to support the imports of crude LNG and food daily. Max is calling for a crash. He says says bring it. You call this a storm? You ain't seen nothing yet. Also Taiwan announced to intent to eliminate all tariffs and trade barriers to the US by using the Mexico and Canada trade agreement as a blueprint. Taiwan joins Israel, India, Cambodia and Vietnam, indicating a desire to eliminate all tariffs. And meanwhile GameStop CEO holding 6 billion in cash Looking at Bitcoin below ADGS you already know and of course that's the the documentary film they made on Pablo Escob. I remember seeing that when it came out, but nonetheless, I actually got to visit Escobar's grave and tombstone. I did the Escobar tour. I used to live in Medellin, Colombia. If you don't know, now you know El Poblado, baby. But welcome everyone to the stream. This is the Q A segment. We just finished our featured story. Close to 1900 people here. I'm gonna stick around for a bonus hour, so this is your opportunity to get your comments read out loud. And for those that don't know, the commenting is coming from the YouTube stream over at cryptonewlers.net and don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.