1978: Arthur Hayes Forecasts $1 Million Bitcoin by 2028 Amid Rising ETF Flows

Summary

Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
Episode 1978: Arthur Hayes Forecasts $1 Million Bitcoin by 2028 Amid Rising ETF Flows
Release Date: April 30, 2025
Host: Justin Verrengia

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1. Introduction

In episode 1978 of Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News, host Crypto Chris delves into a spectrum of pivotal developments shaping the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency landscape. From strategic Bitcoin reserves in Roswell, New Mexico, to Arthur Hayes' ambitious prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2028, the episode offers a comprehensive analysis of current trends, market indicators, and expert insights.

2. Technical Analysis and Market Indicators

Crypto Chris begins by dissecting the latest Bitcoin technical analysis, highlighting the Macro Chain Index (MCI) and its significance. He explains:

“The RSI crossover previously appeared in 2015 ahead of the Bitcoin surge to $20,000 in December 2017, in 2019 before the run to $65,000, and in late 2022 just before Bitcoin bottomed near $15.5. So if historical patterns hold, the April 2025 crossover means the beginning of a new bull run.” (00:36)

Chris emphasizes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossing above the 52-week moving average, a historical precursor to bullish trends. Additionally, he notes the Nibbator Indicator (MCI), which analyzes on-chain macroeconomic metrics to determine Bitcoin's valuation relative to its historical cycle.

3. Strategic Bitcoin Reserves & Coinbase's Projection

The episode highlights significant institutional movements:

• City of Roswell, New Mexico's Bitcoin Reserve: Roswell becomes the first city approved for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, signaling a growing acceptance of Bitcoin at governmental levels.

• Coinbase's Anticipated Purchase: Coinbase announces that the United States is likely to purchase $100 billion worth of Bitcoin soon, underscoring major institutional investment.

“Alex Norris from Coinbase stated, ‘The United States will likely buy $100 billion worth Bitcoin very soon.’” (05:21)

4. Eric Trump's Statement on Banks and Crypto Adoption

Eric Trump delivers a stern warning to global banks regarding crypto adoption:

“The modern financial system is broken. It's slow, it's expensive. It forced me into the crypto world and I am telling you if the banks don't watch what's coming, they are going to be extinct in 10 years.” (07:15)

He criticizes traditional financial mechanisms like SWIFT for their inefficiency and advocates for blockchain technology as a superior alternative. Trump's remarks coincide with his promotion of USD1, a new stablecoin backed by the Trump family's venture, further intertwining traditional finance with cryptocurrency innovations.

5. Institutional Investments: BlackRock and Standard Chartered Bank

• BlackRock's iBIT Milestone: BlackRock's iBIT (possibly referencing a Bitcoin ETF or fund) reaches 600,000 Bitcoin, positioning it as a leading institutional holder alongside MicroStrategy's ~540,000 BTC.

“BlackRock's iBIT hit 600,000 Bitcoin milestone as the institutional giants fuel the Bitcoin rally.” (11:03)

• Standard Chartered's Bitcoin Predictions: The bank forecasts a new Bitcoin all-time high within the quarter, targeting $120,000 by the end of Q2 2025 and potentially reaching $200,000 by late 2025. Analyst Kendrick attributes this optimism to increasing institutional demand and a strategic shift away from U.S. assets.

“Bitcoin began appreciating 26% from the current level, reaching a price target of $120,000 by the end of the second quarter.” (14:10)

6. Hyper Bitcoinization and the $200 Trillion Market Cap

Legendary Bitcoin advocate Adam Back discusses the concept of hyper Bitcoinization, projecting a $200 trillion Bitcoin market cap. He asserts that Bitcoin treasuries represent a sustainable arbitrage between Bitcoin's future and the fiat system's present.

“A sustainable and scalable $200 trillion trade front running hyper Bitcoinization.” (15:45)

Back emphasizes that the Bitcoin treasuries are part of a long-term strategy to reprice the world in Bitcoin, suggesting that major corporations adopting Bitcoin will drive unprecedented market capitalization growth.

7. Bitcoin Volatility and Arthur Hayes' $1 Million Prediction

One of the episode's highlights is Arthur Hayes' bullish forecast:

“Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028.” (19:35)

Chris elaborates on Hayes' prediction, linking it to decreasing volatility and increased institutional investment. Bitcoin's volatility has reached its lowest in 563 days, signaling maturation as a global financial asset. Hayes attributes the potential surge to aggressive monetary policies and rising institutional interest, especially with significant ETF inflows.

“Bitcoin's decreasing volatility suggests the asset is maturing as a global financial asset, leading to a more stable price trajectory.” (17:47)

Additionally, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest updates her Bitcoin price targets, now predicting $2.5 to $3.5 million by 2030, reinforcing the sentiment of explosive growth driven by institutional adoption.

8. Q&A and Community Interaction

Towards the episode's conclusion, Crypto Chris engages with a live audience of 900 participants, addressing questions and discussing the community's sentiments:

“It's time to go long every day. I repeat it's time to go long every day.” (19:44)

He encourages listeners to share their thoughts on Bitcoin's trajectory, particularly in light of Hayes' million-dollar prediction, fostering an interactive and engaged listener base.

9. Conclusion

Episode 1978 encapsulates a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's evolution, marked by significant institutional investments, decreasing volatility, and bold predictions for exponential growth. With figures like Arthur Hayes forecasting Bitcoin to reach unprecedented heights and major financial institutions like BlackRock and Standard Chartered positioning themselves firmly within the cryptocurrency space, the future appears promising for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Host Crypto Chris effectively navigates these developments, providing listeners with insightful analysis and fostering a robust community dialogue.

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Note: All timestamps reference the provided transcript and are aligned with the discussed content sections.

Transcript

[John]

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[Crypto Chris]

Welcome Bitcoin fam to no. 1 Daily Bitcoin Pod. In today's show, I'll be sharing the latest Bitcoin technical analysis as well as breaking news. The City of Roswell, New Mexico sets up a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Let's go. Also, Arizona Senator Roger says I do not have any concerns about the volatility of Bitcoin simply because if you zoom out on all the charts, it's always increasing in value facts. Also, Coinbase just said the USA is likely to buy 100 billion worth Bitcoin very soon. We'll also be discussing banks must adopt crypto or be extinct in the next 10 years according to Eric Trump. Also, Black Rock's Ibit hit 600,000 Bitcoin milestone as the institutional giants fuel the Bitcoin rally. We'll also be discussing Standard Chartered bank predicts new Bitcoin all time high this quarter. I'll be breaking down their latest timeline from their report as well as 200 trip trillion bitcoin market cap now in play as hyper Bitcoinization takes shape according to the Bitcoin og Adam back we'll also be discussing the Bitcoin volatility is lowest in the last 563 days. Arthur Hayes just Blaze predicts one million dollar Bitcoin by 2028 within the next three years. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good Crypto fam?

[Derek]

This is first and foremost a video.

[Crypto Chris]

Show, so if you want the full.

[Derek]

Premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at cryptonewsalerts.net Again, that's crypto news.

[Crypto Chris]

Alerts.Net Bitcoin macro indicator that predicted the 2022 bottom flashes of buy signal that's right, the key bitcoin indicator that accurately signaled the 2022 market bottom has flashed another buy signal. Also, let's not forget we got the Nibinator indicator, so dubbed the Macro Chain Index, the mci. The indicator is a composite term onchain macroeconomic metrics, analyzing factors such as the accumulation behavior, network activity and supply trends, helping identify whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued relative to the historical cycle position. The most important part of the current chart is the rsi, which is the relative strength index of the mci, which you can see here in the purple. In April, the RSI crossed above the 52 week moving average, which you can see in the yellow, which has historically confirmed the start of the bitcoin bull runs. The RSI crossover previously appeared in the 2015 ahead of the Bitcoin surge 20,000, which we achieved December of 2017 and in 2019 before the run to 65, 000 and in late 2022 just before Bitcoin bottom near 15. 5. So if historical patterns hold, the April 2025 crossover means the beginning of a new bull run, particularly as several other indicators also point to the bitcoin breaking above the key psychological resistance of 100 GS. According analysts here, our Macro Chain Index fired a long signal, the first buy signal since 2022 when it successfully went long at the absolute bottom. Considering that the fundamentals align and the market structure is gradually following there, this is a significant call in my honest opinion. Let me know if you agree disagree with the analyst. Bitcoin dipped by as much as 32% after establishing the current all time high of 1093, achieved Inauguration Day January 20th and since a sharp decline caused primarily by the Trump global trade war. Bitcoin formed a local low of 74 a couple of weeks back, but has since recovered back above 95 yesterday and has officially decoupled from the US stock market. Bitcoin's recent price rebound is gaining strong support from futures markets, especially on Bance. Between January and early April, open interest on the Exchange dropped from 12 billion to seven and a half billion, marking a 37% decline, signaling reduced confidence and lower leverage during the market downturn. But the trend flipped mid April and over the past three weeks traders have pushed open interest up by 29% from 7.5 billion to 9.7 billion. Aligning with the bitcoin price on the spot markets.

[Evan]

And if you don't know, now you know.

[Crypto Chris]

And also some big news.

[Evan]

The city of Roswell, New Mexico sets.

[Crypto Chris]

Up strategic bitcoin reserve.

[Evan]

Now we know what they're hiding over at Area 51. The biddy, pretty lit.

[Crypto Chris]

Also, Arizona Senator Rogers says I do not have any concerns about the volatility.

[Evan]

Of the bitcoin simply because if you.

[Crypto Chris]

Zoom out on all the charts, it's.

[Evan]

Always increasing in value.

[Crypto Chris]

Finally, someone actually gets it. Arizona winning. They became the first state to be approved for the strategic bitcoin reserve, which we covered in great detail yesterday. Also, Coinbase just said that the United.

[Evan]

States will likely buy $100 billion worth Bitcoin very soon.

[Crypto Chris]

Game on. And with that being shared, let's pull up some of the live charts. Let me check the feed, see how we're doing. Fam. Let me know in the the comments. It looks like we're back and rocking. Good, good, good, good stuff. All right, here we go. Let's do some astrology for the baddies, specifically via trading view via Coinbase, which I'm pulling up right now. You should be able to see live it on your screen. The live chart. Action Jackson. There's a one hour chart.

[Evan]

I think you're on mute.

[Frank]

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[Evan]

I think you're on mute.

[Frank]

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[Crypto Chris]

LinkedIn knows how you can see. We've been trading sideways virtually all week. We dropped all the way down to 93 and recovered some and currently still trading sideways above 93.7. Zooming out from the 1 hour, we'll take a look at 4 hour.

[Evan]

The 4 hour says it's going up forever.

[Crypto Chris]

Nip Anator. That's right. A big corrective red candle here in the past four hours. Rising wedge formation. Overall bear scenario sitting at 86. 2. There you have it. And zooming out a little further, we take a look at the daily daily chart says falling wedge, a bull scenario. Red target sitting at 111. That's what's up. That'd be price Discovery mode. We have bare scenario just shy of 69. And zooming out a little further, we take a look at a weekly. The weekly chart shows us three consecutive green candle green candles which is very bullish considering we had virtually two months of corrective candles. Still have the cup and handle target of 124000 and also we do get a monthly candle close later today in a few hours which is pretty cool. We're right around the corner for the month of May, so the very first month of quarter two we're about to put a bow on and as you can see thus far so good. We're definitely going to be closing in the green in a few hours so we got the bullish momentum back after two bearish consecutive months. Sign of the times. Let me know where you feel the pre low bitty likely to take us next. Headline here reads Banks must adopt Crypto or be Extinct in the next 10 years according to Eric Trump let's break it down. Eric Trump, obviously son of President Trump, has delivered a warning to the global banks regarding crypto adoption, quoting them here from a recent CNBC interview. The modern financial system is broken. It's slow, it's expensive. It forced me into the crypto world and I am telling you if the banks don't watch what's a coming, they are going to be extinct in 10 years.

[Evan]

Take that Jamie Demon.

[Crypto Chris]

And while emphasizing the need for the banks the closely monitored developments of the crypto industry, Trump highlighted the benefits of crypto's underlying blockchain tech for the financial system. He slammed the existing cross border transactions solutions like the global international messaging network Swift, which has often been criticized for its slow transactions, quoting them here. There's nothing that can be done on blockchain that can't be done better than the way that the current financial institutions are working preach Swift is an absolute disaster. Couldn't agree more there. And while with the emergence of crypto, traditional payment tools like Swift are at a risk of losing market share to decentralize alternatives, quitting them again. You can open up a defi app right now. You can open up any crypto app and you can send money wallet to wallet instantaneously without the expense and without the variability. That's right. Trump's warning comes amid the many global banks still pushing back against crypto adoption, with the bank of Italy slamming stablecoin growth and bitcoin investments. On the other hand, many industry executives are bullish on crypto adoption by banks already in 2025. Amid governments like the US pushing a more crypto friendly agenda, Trump's new prediction comes in line with his previous bull forecast on crypto Back in December, Eric Trump pred predicted Bitcoin inevitably hitting a million per coin. Damn straight. While global governments and institutions would have to adopt the crypto to compete in the fast growing market, we call this the game theory. Meanwhile, Trump shills Banan Link BNB chain that's right. Trump's latest remarks about crypto adoption by global banks came a few days after his public promotion of USD1, a new stablecoin backed by the Trump family launch March of 2025. USD1 is designed to support the OneToOne peg with the US dollar by being 100% backed by short term US government treasuries using dollar deposits and other cash equivalents. The stablecoin is running on the BNB chain, a project initially founded by Banan which has been subject to controversy over the alleged relationship with the Trump family.

[Evan]

Very interesting there.

[Crypto Chris]

And in mid March, the Wall Street Journal reported an alleged deal between Banan.

[Evan]

And Trump's family which reportedly envisaged a.

[Crypto Chris]

Stake in crypto business deal as a part of the plan to resume the Bance the United States. While both President Trump and former Banan.

[Evan]

CEO CZ were quick to deny, the.

[Crypto Chris]

Wall Street Journal claims the last post by Trump's son adds more controversy.

[Evan]

And there you have it. We all know the banks are doomed.

[Crypto Chris]

And Swift is very old outdated technology.

[Evan]

And I agree that they will get.

[Crypto Chris]

Left behind if they don't adopt the bitty. But the good news is the banks now have the green light to do just that. So hopefully they do so and stack accordingly. Yeah, BlackRock's IBIT hit 600000 Bitcoin milestone. So yeah, MicroStrategy has like 540000 ish Bitcoin BlackRock has 600 000. Collectively they hold as much Bitcoin as Satoshi Pretty wild. So according to insights from the market intelligence platform Sant, that's your money saying.

[George]

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[Crypto Chris]

Let me speak to Samson. This sustained capital injection reflects a newfound investor confidence emerging just as fears around global tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are starting to ease.

[Evan]

That's right bis.

[Crypto Chris]

Some traders may feel more relaxed now to fear around the new tariffs has calmed down. Others may be trying to ride the wave of Crypto's recent bounce back. One standout from the recent pattern is BlackRock's eye bit, which is their ETF. As stated in the report, liquidity, brand trust and media saturation have converged to make it the preferred vehicle for institutions looking to gain the bitty exposure. On April 29 it added 2,273 BTC worth 217 million, pushing his total holdings 61,209 Bitcoin. It marked a symbolic logistical milestone, cementing Black Rock's position as the largest institutional Bitcoin Hodler with the second largest fidelity at just under 200,000 BTC wild now. Still, despite the flood of the institutional capital, Sant's report revealed the concerning trend.

[Evan]

Bitcoin's price is rising even though trade volumes are dropping.

[Crypto Chris]

A classic bearish divergence that often foreshadows the pullbacks.

[Evan]

This anomaly is particularly striking given Bitcoin surge to 95G is usually such rallies.

[Crypto Chris]

Are accompanied by swelling volume signaling widespread conviction. But instead, observers have noted the narrow cohort of deep pocketed investors such as your very own Nipinator has propped up the market.

[Evan]

Yeah, that's right. Michael Sailor is not the only one stacking the bitty. Primarily ETF issuers and corporations like strategy while retailers remain sidelined even though the ETF inflows mechanically increase demand. Since issuers must buy Bitcoin back to back the shares, the fading volume suggests Bitcoin's recent rally lacks organic momentum. Quoting them here, there is a bit.

[Crypto Chris]

Of the bearish divergence forming due to.

[Evan]

The prices rising, but volume moving the opposite direction. This pattern usually suggests a rally might be getting weaker since it is not being supported by the strong activity from the traders. Well there you have it. And if you don't know, now you know. Nepinator shaking up a storm over here like Anita Baker. What's going on?

[Crypto Chris]

Headline reads Standard Chartered bank predicts new bitcoin all time high this quarter. Q2 baby. Here's the bank and giants target according to their latest report. And FYI, the largest shareholder of Standard Chartered of course is BlackRock. I mean they have their hands in everything. So yeah, Bitcoin began appreciating 26 from the current level, reaching a price a120 is their projection by the end of the second quarter. So within the next 60 days, bring it. Kendrick, the analyst over at Standard Chartered says the growing institutional demand and the investor desire to shift capital away from the U S assets are some of the factors that could drive the price of the Bitcoin higher. Over the coming weeks and over the longer term. Standard Charters projecting Bitcoin to hit a price of 200000 by the end of 2025. Standard charter research note dated April 28 suggests Kendrick believes and not Lamar Bitcoin offers a better hedge than gold against financial risk presented by the private sector such as the bank collapse, or from the public sector such as default on government issued debt. Quoting the report here, we see the primary purpose of Bitcoin and investor portfolios as a hedge against risk to the existing financial system. And although gold provides a similar hedge against financial system risk, we would argue that Bitcoin is more effective in this regard because of the decentralized nature facts. Meanwhile, gold is a better hedge against geopolitical risks. Gold is also less correlated to risky assets than Bitcoin is, so it is traded better during this year's tariff escalation. And as you know, gold has been breaking out hitting continue new all time highs and it topped out at around 3,500 an ounce. Before correcting some, Peter Schiff reported doing backflips in his living room. Pretty wild. Let's dive into the next story. Headline here reads 200 trillion Bitcoin market cap now in Play as Hyper Bitcoinization.

[Evan]

Takes shape according to Bitcoin OG the.

[Crypto Chris]

One and only legendary Adam Back. That's right. Back says on X that the business intelligence firm strategy and other companies employing the Bitcoin treasury policy are an arbitrage of the dislocation between the Bitcoin future and today's fiat world. That's right. Quoting them here a sustainable and scalable 1 to 200 trillion trade front running hyper Bitcoinization. Scalable enough for most the biggest listed companies to move to a Bitcoin Treasury. Let's go now. Back argues a strategy involving Bitcoin is a logical and sustainable arbitrage. Quoting them again, but not forever. Laura the driver is Bitcoin price going up over four year periods faster than interest and inflation. Post hyper Bitcoinization M Nav probably trends to one. The M NAV stands for the multiple of the net asset value and it refers to the ratio of a company's stock price in relation to the value of the bitty that the company holds per share. Adam Back also says the Bitcoin treasuries.

[Evan]

Are part of the long term effort.

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[Evan]

There to reprice the world in Bitcoin.

[Crypto Chris]

The Blockstream CEO argues that the biddy.

[Evan]

Will become a hurdle rate for operating companies.

[Crypto Chris]

Now what's your prediction?

[Evan]

Hypothetically, if we achieved a 200 trillion dollar Bitcoin market gap, meaning 200 trillion dollars poured right into the bitcoin market, where do you think that would send the price action?

[Crypto Chris]

Now for our feature story of the day Bitcoin volatility hit its lowest in 563 days Arthur Hayes just blazed Bitmax.

[Evan]

Co founder predicts 1 million dollar Bitcoin.

[Crypto Chris]

Price action within the next three years by the time of the next having in 2028. So let's break this baby down, shall we? Bitcoin is showing signs of maturity as a global financial asset with price volatility dropping to the lowest level in more than 500 days, according to the latest research. Volatility refers to the degree of variation of a trading price over time, which indicates the uncertainty about the size of changes in an asset's value. The pretty little bitty which is going up forever. Laura Its weekly volatility hit a 563.

[Evan]

Day low April 30th.

[Crypto Chris]

That's today according to the head of research at K33 Research.

[Evan]

That's right.

[Crypto Chris]

Bitcoin's decreasing volatility suggests the video is maturing as a global financial asset leading to a more stable price trajectory. Bitcoin has become the seventh largest asset globally by market cap reaching 1.87 trillion and now ranks above Silver Meta and Saudi Armaka, which is the largest oil.

[Evan]

Company in the world out of the Middle East.

[Crypto Chris]

So Bitcoin about to take the throne and obviously gold is leading the pack.

[Evan]

Currently with a 22 truly market cap.

[Crypto Chris]

Bitcoin exchange deposits have also seen meaningful decline, suggesting reduced selling pressure and an uptick in conviction driven custody behavior. According to Arthur Hayes just blazed the.

[Evan]

Divergence between the price stability and shrinking.

[Crypto Chris]

Exchange balances is critical, especially in the week following a 7.2 billion options expiry and heightened macro volatility. In the past similar patterns have proceeded upside continuation as reduced supply meets sustained ETF and institutional bids. And the comment comes the day after Black Rocks ETF recorded a whopping almost billion worth of inflows making it the second largest day of investments on record since they launch. Recent market activity has reignited the long term bullish predictions. For example, Arthur Hayes Just Blaze says.

[Evan]

Bitcoin could hit 1 million by 2028. Let me know if you agree disagree.

[Crypto Chris]

With Mr. Just Blaze attributing to the potential surge of aggressive monetary policy and.

[Evan]

Rising institutional interest quitting them again. It's time to go long every day. I repeat it's time to go long every day. He just spoke as a keynote speaker at Token 2049 in Dubai. He said don't worry pre little Bitty is going to a million by 2028. Attributing to the upcoming rally to more money printing from the US treasury which we know is a given pretty low money printer go bur sending bitcoin parabolic. Hayes predicted the incoming US treasury buybacks may present the next bitcoin catalyst which might mean that it is the last chance last call for alcohol or Bitty to buy Bitcoin below 100,000. Treasury buybacks refer to the U.S. treasury Department repurchasing its outstanding bonds from the open market to increase liquidity, manage federal debt or stabilize the interest rates. And when the government prints there is interest owed on the money printed because the government is not the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is a separate entity with no oversight from the government whatsoever. Can you say corruption? Industry leaders in the investment management space have also predicted Bitcoin to surpass a million. In fact Cathie Wood recently upped her original 1 million price tag by 2030 to now like 2.5 to 3.4 million were her bullish scenario which we have covered before quoting the Ark Invest CEO here. Many institutional investors are now looking at the bitcoin thinking they need to add it to their asset allocation because it's return and risk profile looks so much different than all the other assets in their portfolios. You can say that again. So here's the updated target. Well this was actually the initial bear case was 300 000. She upped it to now 500 000. The base case original was 710 which is now a million and the bull case has now extended. I've seen predictions from 2.4 to 3.5 as per Ark Invest as Kathy Wood. But you guys let me know your thoughts on how much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck Wood and if the woodchuck's name was Cathie Wood, let me know and I'll read your comments. Out loud. Welcome, everyone, to the Q and A segment of the live stream. Looks like we got 900 people here. Stream is excellent. Excellent. Love to hear that. Out of the sauna and showered and a little less toxic than I was 30 minutes ago. I feel like a million bitcoin compared to before. Biddy up, you feel like 21,000 BTC. I mean, 21 million BTC max. Supply that mofo. Good. Okay, so, yeah. Welcome everyone, to the Q A segment.

[Derek]

And don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode.

[Crypto Chris]

Hoddle.