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1979: “Bitcoin to $1,000,000 Fueled by ETF and GOVT Demand” - Bitwise
00:31:56
Bitcoin’s expanding institutional adoption may provide the “structural” inflows necessary to surpass gold’s market capitalization and push its price beyond $1 million per coin.
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JV
That's your money saying it's time for a McDonald's run. Cause with new McValue at McDonald's you get more than you expect. Like buy a six piece McNuggets and add a McChicken for just a dollar. Your money says let's go get more than you expect. With new MCvalue, prices and participation may vary, valid per item of equal or lesser value. You know that feeling when someone shows up for you just when you need it most? That's what Uber is all about. Not just a ride or dinner at your door. It's how Uber helps you show up for the moments that matter. Because showing up can turn a tough day around or make good one even better. Whatever it is, big or small, Uber is on the way. So you can be on yours. Uber on our Way welcome fam to the number one daily Bitcoin pod. In today's show I'll be breaking down the latest Bitcoin technical analysis as Bitcoin eyes gains as the macro data makes us recession 2025 base case. Also breaking news, the State of North Carolina House passes their state crypto investment bill. Let's go. Also Meta Planet to open their states arm and plans to raise a quarter billion for their Bitcoin strategy. Also we'll be discussing why sailors billion dollar bitcoin buys barely move the pre low bitty price. We'll also be discussing Bitcoin prime to hit 180,000 per coin amid rapid economic slowdown ahead according to Dan Tapiero. We'll also be discussing Bitcoin to a million dollars by 2029 fueled by the ETF and government demand according to the Bitwise executive will also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good crypto fam? This is first and foremost a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at cryptonewsalerts.net again that's crypto news alerts.net welcome everyone to the live stream. Make some noise. Happy May 1st. That's right. April is behind us. Brand new month. Keep the bullish momentum continuing. 100,000 in play. Prelo biddy up over 3200 on the day. Today is Pod episode 1979. I'm your host JV and happy first of the month. It's May 1st, 2025. April did not disappoint the first bullish monthly candle close in the past three months. The two previous months were bearish and today we're up already 3, 400 on the day and pumping 100k in play. Send it. So let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. You should be able to see coin360 on your screen. Even ether is pumping today. Trading just shy of 19 hundo. Bitcoin up 3 1/2 percent. Trading above 97,200 at the time of the live stream. Salana up 6%. Sui up 10%. Litecoin up 7%. Massive gainers across the board. We love to see this. The momentum is back in the markets. Coin market cap shows us we're finally above the 3 trillion milestone. Currently 3.02. A good size of the times we've been stuck below that since ultimately achieving the all time high back in January. And checking out the bitcoin market gap all the way to 1.9 trillion. Fast approaching the 2 trillion mark as well. Bitcoin dominance 63.7%. Ether dominance 7.4%. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. Virtual up 32%. Walrus up 21% and Sonic up 21%. That's a sexy bitty blackjack. And let me know which alter bullish on for the bull. If you don't know now you know. Checking out the crypto bubbles. We get the vis perspective on the day and it's about time we see a day like this. Roughly 97% of the market in the green. Zooming out on the weekly. I'd say 8020 green over red. Overall bullish and zooming out on the monthly very similar. Maybe 8020 green over red. Very impressive gains across the board for the alt market which is long overdue. And checking out the crypto greed inferior index. Today we're at 53 neutral, yesterday at 56. Last week of 63 and last month of 34. In fear and checking out the infamous time chain calendar, we're currently on block number 894. 753. We have 155, 247 blocks until the next having of 2028. And you can currently exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1029 SATS. So pick up the stats, put down the gaps, pick up some bitcoin caps from a man, sergio over@bitcoincaps.net get yourself a custom president B cap just like your boy JV and rock it with respect. But anyways, let's transition into our ta AKA Astrology for the baddies. I'll be pulling up some of charts. Headline here reads Bitcoin eyes gains as the macro data makes us recession 2025 base case base case for the Broskis. Happy 420 in advance. So yeah, the Fed's worst nightmare gets real. Take that Fed U. S economic health is due to take a hit on the back of the trade tariffs and the resurgent inflation sensation which may no will accompany them. The latest macroeconomic data from Q1 GDP shows that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge puts officials in a tight spot. According to the Kabisi letter, GDP came in markedly expectations turning negative against a forecast of a 3% gain. Quoting them here, Effectively the Fed must pick between containing either inflation or unemployment is summarized calling the situation the Fed's worst nightmare. Take that the key issue is the extent and timing of any interest rate cuts, something the crypto risk asset traders are keenly eyeing thanks to the positive knock on effects for the market quitting them again. Not reducing interest rates will further weaken the US GDP and likely increase unemployment. However, if interest rates are cut immediately we would expect to see another rebound in inflation. Thus in a lose lose situation, the Fed faces a threat of boat stagflation. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. You might say all kinds of stuff when things go wrong, but these are the words you really need to remember. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. They've got options to fit your unique insurance needs, meaning you can talk to your agent to choose the coverage you need, have coverage options to protect the things you value most, file a claim right on the State Farm mobile app and even reach a real person when you need to talk to someone. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there which is rising inflation with rising unemployment and a full on recession, a recession in the US has become our base case scenario according to the Kabisi letter linking to rising odds and prediction service Kalshi, which shows a 64% chance of a recession. This is typically pretty accurate because money is put on the line. This is a betting line so people are betting on a recession. The latest data from the CME Group's Fed Watch tool underscores the market expectations for the Fed policy which remain conservative through 2025 despite the instance of U S President Trump that rates heads rates are heading lower. The June meeting of the FOMC is currently the event which should spark a quarter percent cut consensus suggests and the May meeting However now just 3% odds of such an outcome, so they're not betting on that happening. Quoting them again yesterday, the market priced in a 57 probability of a 25bps cut for June 18th on the FOMC today at 63%. So push comes to shove in terms of economic data and rate cuts, the Fed will be concerned about the price pressures, but more so about the weakness within the economy, especially if the policy isn't correlated in time. Meanwhile, crypto trader Mal Van de Pop predicts the recession alone would cause the Fed to rethink its stance. Quoting them here, the rumors for a potential recession is increasing, which should strengthen the thesis for the Fed to loosen up the policy that will likely be a low on the markets liquidity to be added and risk on to thrive and survive. And if you don't know, now you know. Here you go. Okay, pretty little bitty's ripping. As you can see this is on the one hour chart. Big green candles are being printed in real time right now. Let's get a broader perspective as we work our way backwards on the charts. As you can see this is the four hour. We had 1, 2, 3, 4, 567 consecutive green candles on the four hour chart. 7 times 4 is 28. So that's bullishness for the past 28 hours as we continue to soar 100k income in fam. You heard it from Nipinator indicator first and zooming out from there we'll take a look at the daily the daily chart very bullish for the first day of May. A great sign of another bullish month in the works. We do have a bull scenario target sitting in the red at just shy of 112000 which would take us discovery. The current all time high is 1093 achieved inauguration day January 20th. We also have a bear scenario sitting shy of 69,000 which is not really likely to happen. We're most likely to continue to print bullish. And zooming out for the weekly. You can see 1-234-consecutive green weekly candles. More bullishness. That means for the past month has been ripping like the new Scotty Pippen. We also have the weekly sexy cup and handle Target sitting at 124G baby. So send it. And zooming out from there we'll take a look at a monthly Considering we just had our monthly close yesterday, the month of April did not disappoint. Pretty significant green candle and already for the month of May forming a significant green candle. All I gotta say is send it and let's freaking go. So yeah, next story. Here we go. Headline this is regarding North Carolina. Another state passed their bill that's right North Carolina House Passes the State Crypto Investment Bill this is a pretty big deal. North Carolina's House of Representatives out our very own Oracle this is her home state, has passed the bill allowing the state Treasurer to invest public funds and approve cryptos, which will now head to the Senate. The House passed the Digital Asset Investment act, which is House Bill 92 on the third reading April 30 by a vote of 71 of 44. Take that lizard folk. Republican House Speaker Dustin hall introduced the bill in February which would allow the treasurer to allocate 5% of the state investments into designated digital assets. The investments can only be made after obtaining an independent third party assessment confirming the crypto holdings are maintained with a secure custody solution and risk oversight and regulatory compliance standards are met. New amendments allow the Treasurer to examine the feasibility of allowing members of retirement and deferred compensation plans to elect and invest in digital assets held by the ETPs, which are the exchange traded products such as the ETFs. The house also passed a related bill, the State Investment Modernization Act HB506, with little discussion April 30 and a 110 to 3 vote. That's what's up. The bill aims to create the North Carolina Investment Authority to take over investment management from the Treasurer. If the law passes, the authority to invest digital assets would transfer from the Treasurer to the North Carolina Investment Authority and approval would be required from its Board of Directors based on the third party assessments to make crypto investments. So you can see the local news outlet NC Newsline reported that Treasurer Brad Briner supports both bills as outlined right here. So yeah, Arizona already done deal. Looks like North Carolina is next alongside Utah and a few of the other states is outlined right here. North Carolina is second to Arizona and the state level race to approve legislation. At Capella University you can learn at your own pace with our Flex Path learning format. Take one or two courses at a time and complete as many as you can in a 12 week billing session. With Flexpath you can even finish the Bachelor's degree you started in 22 months for $20,000. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Edu fastest 25 of students. Cost varies by pace, transfer credits and other factors. Fees apply, allowing local governments to invest into the prelo Biddy and on April 28, Arizona's House approved two bills which was SB 1025 and SB 1373 proposing different methods for the state to estab a crypto reserve. Arizona is the only state whose house and senate have both passed crypto related bills so they're leading the race which are both awaiting Governor Katie Hobbs decision now. Katie Hobbs, you better do the right thing. I'm going to hold you accountable. Nibinators gonna hold you accountable. The CNA fam at the Bitcoin Cafe is going to hold you accountable. So do the right thing. Katie Hopps don't make me unleash the house. You feel me? But anyways, let's continue with a bitty news, shall we? Metal Planet baby They're opening an arm in the US planning to raise 250 million for the Bitcoin acquisition strategy. That's right. Metal Planet, the Japanese company focused on accumulating the prelobidity, announced to launch a United States Excuse me, oh my hiccups here. United States based subsidiary Meta Planet announced the firm's launching a wholly owned subsidiary in Florida Florida for the win. Furthermore, the new subsidiary is expected to raise up to a quarter billion of capital to fuel its Bitcoin act acquisition accumulation strategy and tap the U S Institutional investors smart. In a separate announcement, Meta Planet cites Miami, everyone's favorite city, as the city that will host the new subsidiary's headquarters. The firm points to Florida as a particularly favorable environment, quoting them here Florida, a rapidly emergent hub for the bitty focused companies and financial innovation recognized for its Bitcoin friendly policies and rising status as a global center of capital and technology. I dare them to look into Tampa or maybe Mar? A Largo near the Trumpster. The President. I don't know about Miami, but they each their own. The company explained that it did decide to go to Florida due to the pro Bitcoin environment which purportedly led to Bitcoin corporate adoption and financial liberalization. The new subsidiary is also expected to expand the company's operations into the new time zone. Meta Planet's commentary follows Florida's progress in becoming one of the most Bitcoin friendly U S states. In April, Florida's House Insurance and Banking Committee approved the bill that would allow the state treasury to invest in Bitcoin. The bill was proposed early February, the greatest month of the year. The crypto industry had a strong foothold in Florida and is also intertwined with the political landscape. Two Republicans also received a combined one and a half million from the crypto backed political action committee Fair Shake and will enter the U S House after winning special elections in Florida mid February. Analysis also showed the Florida Retirement System State Board of administration fund held 160000 strategy shares worth 46 million. Pretty lit, as you know. Previously known as MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor's company Meg, Meta Planet's bigger brother, a company entirely focused on accumulating the bitcoin and their plan to become the largest bitcoin bank in the world. That report followed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis suggesting that the agency manages the state's retirement funds to consider investing into the prelo biddy. He shared his ideas with the Florida State Board of Administratives Executive Director Chris Spencer in a letter sent in late October 2024. So yeah. According to the Meta Planet site, the Firm currently holds exactly 5,000bitcoin worth 474.7 million. And while this is a far cry from the Strategy holdings, which exceed 2% of all the bitcoin that will ever be mined, it is a 184 increase from the firm's holdings of 1762 BTC on the first day of 2025. And at the beginning of April, Meta Planet announced its acquisition of 696Six Bitcoin for 10 billion yen, which is 67 million USD. And later the same month the firm acquired 330 Bitcoin for 28 million at an average price of 85, 000 per Bitcoin equals winning, bringing its total holdings to 4855. Then at the end of the month, the firm bought an additional 145 and now they have a grand total of 5,000. And their goal by the end of this year is to have 10,000 bitcoin. And their goal by the end of 2026 is to literally have 21,000 thousand BTC. Let me know if you think they'll likely smash their goal. Yay or nay? Next story of the day. Family Lamp here's the latest on the giga chat after the infamous freeze frame, of course. So yeah, headline reads why sailors billion dollar Bitcoin buys barely are moving the price. Let's discuss it. Burnett opens by reminding viewers the bitcoin explosive move from $16,000 lows of 2022 to 97 today has historically been accompanied by the awakening of the dormant supply, referring to the on chain hollow wave data noting when the price accelerates, other coins start to move, a signal that the seasoned hodlers are willing to part with inventory into strength. Those coins, he says, transfers to the new hands, a cohort he denies broadly as a strategy, ETF buyers, institutions, nation states, and of course more individuals. Strategy sits squarely in that cohort. Yet Burnett stresses that the software company's trading style is calibrated to minimize market disturbance. They use a disciplined patient strategy, placing thousands or even millions of small buy orders over several days, he says. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of 45 for 3 month plan equivalent to 15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only then full price plan options available taxes and fees extra fee full terms@mintmobile.com quoting sailors own public comments that the firm prefers letting the sellers come to them without bidding against themselves. The tactic allows long term, arguably less price sensitive hodlers to exchange their coins for cash without triggering runaway order book and balances. So let me put that in layman's terms. Maybe over the weekend he's making his big purchase and then he makes the announcement on Monday. And he does it this way so it doesn't create a significant gap, for example in the futures market so that we don't have to come back and close those gaps, creating even additional volatility. That's my understanding just reading that. The video's analytical pivot arrives when Burnett introduces what he calls an additional theory on why strategy purchases fail to ignite parabolic price action funding structure. He unpacks it with simple but pointed analogy, quoting him here. If you sell one Bitcoin on Kraken and buy one Bitcoin on Coinbase, what happens to the price? Nothing. That's an economically neutral trade. According to Burnett strategies, balance sheet maneuvers replicate that neutrality on the corporate scale. And when the firm raises cash by issuing new equity, someone buys that stock instead of buying the Bitcoin strategy, then turns the equity proceeds into to the spot Bitcoin net effect a shift in exposure, not net new demand. The same mechanics, he argues, apply to the company's convertible note programs. For example, hedge funds that subscribe to the notes simultaneously hedge by short selling MSTR shares, expanding the float rather than siphoning dollars from unrelated asset classes. In both cases, the dollars that flow into Bitcoin are first pulled out of a Bitcoin proxy, which are the micro strategy shares. Now obviously it's strategy B, underscoring the zero sum nature of the flow. And there you have it, yo. And that's why we don't see significant price appreciation when Sailor continuously announces buying another billion dollars every week. $2 billion, $3 billion, $4 billion. He's now up to like roughly 540000 Bitcoin. And yesterday we announced BlackRock is now up to like 600000 Bitcoin. So collectively just between two companies, Strategy B Black and BlackRock collectively have as much Bitcoin as Satoshi 1.1 million which is mind boggling to truly fathom. Yeah I mean. Next story of the day the latest from Dan Tapiero. And again welcome everyone joining us. Headline reads Bitcoin prime like Optimus to hit 180000 per coin amid the rapid economic slowdown ahead according to Dan Tapiero, the legendary investor himself. Let's break this bitty news down down shall we? Bruskies Macro investor and fund manager Dan Tapiero believes the pre lil bitty is gearing up for an explosive rally as the macroeconomic conditions worsen. In a new post he shared on X, he says Bitcoin may Soar more than 90% of its current value due to likely Fed rate cuts which will boost the economy. Tapiero believes the liquidity increase will be the major catalyst to send the pre low bitty parabolic to a new all time high of 180G baby. And amongst the economic metrics he looks at the Federal Reserve bank of Richmond's expected Manufacturing employment index which has plummeted to level seen only during the economic crisis. And shout out to the earth Wanderer just became a member of the Micro Strategy membership on YouTube for the next four months. So this gong strike is for you Broski. We appreciate everyone supporting the stream quoting them here. Here we go again. More second tier macro data signaling a rapid slowdown ahead. The largest drop ever back to the 08 lows. It's a Fed survey. So hard to get them to ignore. Short rates at 4% are just way too high. The same theme more liquidity are coming. Bitcoins are running 180000 in play before summer of 2026. Send it the Richmond Expected Manufacturing Employment Index is just an indicator that shows we're at an extreme very rarely if ever reached. I searched of these extreme outliers as they increase the odds that the slowdown is more severe than is currently priced in. Let me know if you agree disagree with Tapiero. He also says the worsening in economic conditions will likely lead to more money printing pretty little money printer go fur which will debase the US dollar inflation sensation. He believes the current debasement will cause the investors to pour into the bitcoin as a hedge. Quoting him again. Fed is playing with fire. Massive collapse in consumer expectations for the economy in the next six months. Back to the March 09 lows, well below the novid panic lows. This is extreme data. Much lower rates in the US dollar is needed to offset the fiscal austerity. Is that a word? Austerity? There we go. Fiat the basement equals plus the pre little bitty is going up forever. Lauren if you don't know now you know. Welcome everyone to the live stream. What it do? Make some noise and in the live chat now for our feature story of the day fam bitcoin to 1 million per coin by 2029. The Hoover Dam wasn't built in a day and the GMC Sierra lineup wasn't built overnight. Like every American achievement, building the Sierra 1500 heavy duty and EV was the result of dedication. A dedication to mastering the art of engineering. That's what this country has done for 200 years, 50 years and what GMC has done for over a hundred. We are professional grade. Visit gmc.com to learn more. Assembled in Flint ham traffic, Michigan and Fort Wayne, Indiana of US and globally source parts fueled by the ETFs and government demand according to the Bitwise Executive let's break this baby down shall we? As you can see here in the headline so that's what's up. Bitcoin's expanding their institutional adoption as the institutional FOMO like a movie continues which may provide the structural inflows which are necessary to surpass Gold's market cap which is currently sitting at 22 trillion and Bitcoin right now is just above 1.9 trillion. That means we got a 10x income in baby that will send the Bitcoin price beyond 1 million. Couldn't agree more. In yesterday's pod we discussed Arthur H. Just Blaze projecting Bitcoin reaching a million by 2028, which I personally think is more probable. Let me know your thoughts. Quoting him here. Our in House prediction is 1 million per Bitcoin by 2029. So that Bitcoin will match gold' cap 22 trillion in total addressable market. Let me know if you agree. I think if we hit a 22 trillion market cap we'll be well above a million per coin, potentially 2.2 million which is max Kaiser's target. But you guys let me know your thoughts. Yo. Gold is currently the world's largest asset valued at 21.7 trillion. And it recently hit a new all time high per troy ounce of roughly 3,500. Before correcting some in comparison the bitcoin market cap today is just 1.9 trillion making it the seventh largest asset globally. And here you can see the chart from companies market cap data gold 21.7 trillion market cap we got Apple 3.192 trillion, Microsoft 2.93 trillion, Nvidia 2.6 trillion, Amazon 1.9 trillion, Google 1.9 and then we have Bitcoin. Just shy what's going to happen when Alphabet slash, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple all put bitcoin on the balance sheet. Sheet, you do the math. But anyways for the 2025 market cycle, Bitcoin may surpass 200,000 in the base case. Couldn't agree more. It will I believe and 500,000 with more governmental adoption, I dare say 1.1 million in play. But quoting the analysts. But once you see sovereign bias like the US government stepping in, all this will change to 500k. Send it. So the base case is 200g's conditional on the US government not stepping in. If they step in, we'll move closer to 500 GS says the analyst, referring to the US government's plan to potentially make direct bitcoin acquisitions through the budget neutral strategies. We already know that's a fact. The entire Trump administration talks about it virtually every day. And you already know Michael Saylor delivered like a hundred page report to the government on budget neutral strategies for acquiring bitcoin. Whether it's printing money out of thin air or whether it's trading their gold derivatives virtually for the bitcoin. Now my understanding is the Fed prints the money, there's no congressional oversight and we're still responsible for the interest. So I don't know if that's the most viable solution when they can just trade the gold derivatives and trade the inferior asset for the apex predator. After all, gold is the poor man's bitcoin. Quoting the high priest, your holiness himself, Max Heiser. So the US is looking at many creative ways to fund its bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the U. S. Treasury's goal certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the bitcoin reserve without selling gold. I think that's their most viable way in my humble opinion because there's so much gold that can just be transferred into the apex predator. And that's according to Beau Hines, the Presidential Council of Advisors for Digital assets. So I like to believe he knows a thing about a thing or two about a thing or two. What are your thoughts now? The U. S based ETFs have surpassed all expectations during their first year of trading exceeding record trading volumes as IBIT became the fastest growing ETF in history and they now have over 6600000 Bitcoin achieved in virtually one year. So it's insane. At this rate they'll have millions of bitcoin before you know it. The first year is usually the slowest for the ETFs and that's a good point highlighting the launch of the goal etf. That alone implies that in the second and third year we'll see growing inflows and in terms of the four year cycle implies that this cycle will be prolonged by the structural inflows. The bitcoin cycle may also be prolonged when the U S wirehouse to start gaining exposure to the prelobidity and the ETFs quoting them here in the US the major distribution channels go via the wirehouses which are essentially the big banks. And speaking of the big banks, shout out to big Mike he has a podcast let me know if you've ever tuned into it. Shout out to Obamas. And not even half of these wirehouses have opened up their distribution channels to the U S Bitcoin ETFs adoption from the U S Wirehouses may bring a huge amount of capital. No, they will bring in a massive amount of capital since These control over 10 trillion worth the consumer assets that's 10 trillion heading into the pretty little bitty going up forever Laura. And if you don't know now you know. Let me know your thoughts surrounding bitcoin to a million by 2029 as per Bitwise had a research or 1 million by 2028 or even potentially 1 million this year in 2025 as per Samson Mao. Let me speak to Samson. Max Kaiser's calling for 2.2 million in play but you guys let me know your thoughts. Welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream and don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q A and I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode hoddle.