Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC News – Episode 2041 Summary

Title: PlanB Predicts Average Bitcoin Price Will Be $500,000 This Halving Cycle
Host: Justin Verrengia
Release Date: July 4, 2025

Introduction

In Episode 2041 of "Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC News," host Justin Verrengia, known as JV, alongside co-host Inipinator, delves into a spectrum of pivotal Bitcoin developments. Celebrating Independence Day, the duo offers insightful analysis on Bitcoin's technical trends, significant market movements, regulatory updates, and bold price predictions that shape the cryptocurrency landscape.

Market Overview and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Market Movement

• Current Status: Bitcoin is experiencing a slight dip, down 2% for the day, presenting a potential Buy The Dip (BTFD) opportunity reminiscent of last year's market conditions. Ether is also down by 4%, indicating a broader market correction.

  "Bitcoin down roughly 2% on the day. A great BTFD opportunity." — JV [04:54]

• Market Capitalization: The total crypto market cap stands at $3.31 trillion, with Bitcoin dominating at $2.141 trillion. The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $98 billion.

• Dominance Metrics: Bitcoin's dominance currently sits at 64.7%, while Ether holds 9.1%. JV poses a question to listeners about the potential rise in Bitcoin dominance, speculating whether it might reclaim the 70% mark.

  "Do you think we'll reclaim the 70 poll position?" — JV [06:30]

Weekly and Monthly Insights

• Weekly Perspective: Zooming out, the weekly charts show a majority of the market in the green, whereas the monthly view reveals a more tempered outlook with significant corrections across major cryptocurrencies, including Trump Coin, Zcash, and Cardano.

• Yearly Perspective: Over the past year, nearly all cryptocurrencies have experienced massive corrections. Notable gainers include XRP up 375%, Monero up 90%, and Sui surging by 266%.

Significant Market Events

Dormant Wallet Activity Sparks Speculation

• Resurrection of a Satoshi Era Wallet: A dormant Bitcoin wallet, presumed to belong to a Bitcoin OG or possibly Roger Ver, has been reactivated, transferring approximately 4.35 billion BTC. This staggering movement has stirred speculation about the wallet's owner, with theories ranging from Satoshi Nakamoto himself to prominent early adopters like Roger Ver.

  "A Bitcoin OG holding at least 80,000 Bitcoin which is almost $9 billion... transferred out 40,000 BTC worth $4.35 billion today." — Inipinator [09:20]

• Market Reaction: The sudden transfer has led to market nervousness, evident in the Bitcoin price dipping below the key 108 level. Experts suggest this could trigger liquidations of high-leverage positions, contributing to the current market correction.

  "Bitcoin slip beneath the key 108 level... markets clearly are nervous." — Inipinator [06:50]

Belgian Court Sentences Kidnappers of Crypto Investor's Wife

• Legal Outcome: A Belgian court has sentenced three individuals to 12 years in prison for the kidnapping of Stephanie Winkle's wife, a prominent crypto investor. The kidnappers, linked to drug trafficking and money laundering, abducted her outside her home in December 2024, demanding ransom in cryptocurrency.

  "The Belgian court sentenced three people for their roles in the crypto-related kidnapping... demanding a ransom in cryptocurrency." — Inipinator [17:10]

• Impact on the Community: This incident underscores the increasing risks associated with high-profile cryptocurrency holders, emphasizing the need for enhanced security measures.

  "Just another reason to not brag about your bitcoin holdings." — JV [18:00]

Investor Sentiment and Profit Realization

1.2 Trillion in Unlocked Bitcoin Profits

• Glass Node Report: According to Glass Node, a significant majority of Bitcoin holders are currently sitting on unrealized profits totaling $1.2 trillion. This surge is attributed to Bitcoin's rebound to the $107 level, pushing many investors into profitable territory.

  "Total unrealized gains reaching a staggering 1.2 trillion." — Inipinator [19:40]

• Investor Behavior: The report suggests that most investors are reluctant to cash out these gains, preferring to "hodl" despite the current market corrections. The declining trend in realized profits and an increase in long-term hodler supply indicate strong confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

Regulatory Developments

Senator Cynthia Lummis Proposes Standalone Crypto Tax Bill

• Legislative Proposal: U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a draft bill aimed at overhauling the federal tax code concerning digital assets. The bill seeks to exempt certain crypto transactions from taxation, including:

  • De Minimis Exemption: Exempts digital asset transactions and capital gains of $300 or less, with an annual cap of $5,000.

  • Exemptions for Crypto Lending and Charitable Contributions: Proposes tax exemptions for crypto lending agreements and digital assets donated to charities.

  • Deferral of Taxes on Mining and Staking: Suggests delaying taxes on mining and staking rewards until the underlying assets are sold.

  "This groundbreaking legislation is fully paid for... reflects how digital technologies function in the real world." — Senator Cynthia Lummis [20:10]

• Community Reaction: While the crypto community welcomes the move towards clearer regulations, there is disappointment over the removal of the zero capital gains tax proposal, which many believed would significantly boost Bitcoin adoption in the U.S.

  "Personally, I think there should be zero tax whatsoever." — JV [21:00]

House Financial Services Committee Amendment

• Exemption for Developers: An amendment to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 seeks to exclude developers of centralized protocols from being classified as money transmitters, alleviating tax reporting requirements similar to those for centralized exchanges.

  "This would also exempt these D5 protocols from the same tax reporting requirements as centralized exchanges." — Inipinator [22:35]

Bitcoin Price Predictions and Models

Bitcoin Could Reach $150,000 Fueled by Trump's Big Bill

• Market Expectations: With President Trump's large-scale spending bill poised to pass, Bitcoin enthusiasts anticipate a significant price increase. Historical data suggests that similar fiscal policies have led to substantial Bitcoin gains, with some analysts forecasting Bitcoin to hit $150,000 within a few weeks.

  "Bitcoin can gain nearly 40% after Trump signs his big beautiful bill on Independence Day." — Inipinator [23:10]

• National Debt Implications: The projected increase in U.S. national debt to $40 trillion by the end of 2025 is seen as a bullish indicator for Bitcoin, as it highlights the currency's attractiveness as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation.

PlanB’s Prediction: Bitcoin Averaging $500,000 by 2028

• Stock-to-Flow Model: Renowned crypto analyst PlanB reaffirmed his bullish stance, predicting an average Bitcoin price of $500,000 within the current halving cycle (2024–2028). This prediction is based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which assesses Bitcoin's scarcity by dividing its current stock by the annual flow (new supply).

  "I still believe that Bitcoin's average price will be $500,000 per coin this halving cycle between 2024 and 2028." — PlanB [26:30]

• Historical Context: Reflecting on past predictions, PlanB noted that last year's forecast aligned closely with Bitcoin's performance, reinforcing confidence in his model despite market volatility.

  "Based on the Stock-to-Flow model, Bitcoin value should theoretically go up which each halving due to the increase in scarcity." — JV [27:15]

• Future Projections: Extending beyond 2028, PlanB envisions Bitcoin potentially reaching $4 million per coin by 2032, emphasizing its role as a superior store of value compared to traditional fiat currencies and other cryptocurrencies.

  "Bitcoin is the only money in human history that we know of with absolute scarcity." — JV [28:10]

NIPINATOR Indicator and Additional Analytics

• Accuracy Claims: The NIPINATOR indicator, touted as having 100% accuracy, continues to be a key tool featured in the analysis, supporting the optimistic price forecasts.

  "Rec Capital acknowledges the M2 can continue rising... the Nipinator indicator remains bullish." — JV [24:50]

Conclusion

Episode 2041 of "Bitcoin News Alerts" presents a comprehensive overview of the current state and future prospects of Bitcoin. From significant market movements and regulatory developments to ambitious price predictions, both hosts JV and Inipinator provide listeners with valuable insights into the cryptocurrency's evolving landscape. Celebrating Independence Day, the episode underscores the importance of Bitcoin as a form of financial sovereignty, urging listeners to "HODL" and stay informed through premium content.

For a deeper dive into these topics and more, tune into the full episode on BitcoinNewsAlerts.net.

Notable Quotes:

• "This move pushed the majority of the investors back into profit with total unrealized gains reaching a staggering 1.2 trillion." — Inipinator [19:40]

• "Bitcoin is literally demonetizing real estate and all assets, commodities, securities, etc., in real time." — JV [26:50]

• "We cannot allow our architect policies to stifle the American innovation." — Senator Cynthia Lummis [20:10]

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Join the Conversation: Share your thoughts on Bitcoin’s future and PlanB’s predictions on social media using the hashtag #HODL.

This summary captures the essence of Episode 2041, highlighting key discussions, insights, and forward-looking statements that shape the Bitcoin narrative in mid-2025.