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2094: Shakeout Before Breakout - $500K Bitcoin Ahead as Classic Move Unfolds
00:29:56
📈 A veteran trader who famously called the May 2021 collapse now says Bitcoin is in a “shakeout before breakout”phase - a classic impulse move setting the stage for a parabolic run. With $500K Bitcoin ahead, the next leg of hyperbitcoinization...
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Back to school is better with Family freedom from T Mobile, we'll pay off four phones up to $3200 and give you four free phones all on America's largest 5G network. Visit your local T Mobile location or learn more@t mobile.com FamilyFreedom up to $800 per line via virtual prepaid card typically takes 15 days. Free phones via 24 monthly bill credits with finance agreement eg Apple iPhone 16128 gigabyte 8 $2009.99 Eligible trade in eg iPhone 11 Pro for well qualified credits end and balance due. If you pay off earlier, cancel contact T Mobile Welcome Bitcoin Fam to the number Bitcoin Pod and Happy Labor Day. In today's show, I'll be breaking down the latest technical analysis as we do each and every day. We'll be discussing the shakeout before the breakout as trader that called the May 2021 collapse says Bitcoin seeing classic impulsive move upwards. We'll also be discussing Bance launches Mexico entity Meta with plans with a $53 million investment. Also, crypto is one growth cycle away from mainstream adoption with 5 billion billion users. We'll also be discussing crypto fund see 2 1/2 billion worth of inflows despite the falling Bitcoin price. We'll also be discussing Meta Planet Bitcoin holdings reach 20,000 BTC and issues 11.5 million shares. We'll also be discussing a $500,000 bullish price prediction. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. If you guys are new to the Rumble, important to smash the like. Give us a follow and hit that repost over at BTC News Alerts and we'll give you an online shout out on the screen. Also give you a shout out as we always do and repost everyone's comments and quotes. Today is pot. Episode 2094 Happy Labor Day weekend. It's Monday, Labor Day, September 1st of the month. The question becomes will this month be September or September? You guys got to let me know. And of course we'll be pulling up the live charts doing all this good stuff, fun stuff, I'm your boy JV here each and every day alongside Fed Chairman Nipinator and may be on the lookout for the Nipinator indicator. Stay tuned. But anyways, without further ado, let's go ahead and kick it off with our market watch. Pulling up coin360 right here. You can see Bitcoin in the green but barely maintaining just above 1092, at the time of the live we have ether, BNB Salana on the bulk of the market correcting and in the red. And let's now close this tab and go to the next one. Coinmarketcap.com Current crypto market cap sits at 3.78 trillion. Bitcoin market cap today 2.17 trillion. We got roughly 151 billion worth of volume for the past 24 hours. Bitcoin dominance has been on the decline this week. Currently 57 and a half percent. Ether dominance back on the climb at 14. Even, even McEven, some say even Steven, but I'm old now. Checking out the top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours we got meme core up 21. World Liberty Financial. That's the Trumpsters partnership coin for their D5 platform. That's their native token WLFI. It's actually, it's in the red. I don't know why it's featured at the top but it is down 6% on the day. So not many alts actually in the green and the ones that are are barely in the green because the bulk of the market is correcting today. And next up checking out the crypto bubbles, we get a visual perspective on the day. Definitely 95% of the market in the red. And here it shows you WLFI down 25% on the day. So I don't know what's more accurate. That's why we use multiple metrics. So again on coin market cap it showed WLFI only down 6%. Here in crypto bubbles it's down 24. But either way it's a, it's a loser on the day. Should have just stacked more of the bitcoin. One of the few. Only in the green. And checking out the weekly, the weekly shows us it's definitely a mixed bag. I dare say 50, 50 red and green. Checking out the monthly. I definitely say the bulk of the market in the green there primarily. And checking out the yearly and definitely the bulk of the market in the green. I dare say 70, 30, 70 being the green, 30 being the red. Next up we'll check out the crypto greed and fear index. Today we're coming in at a 46, yesterday at 48, last week at 47 and last month of 55 in greed. Today one block height, 912, 751. We have a hundred 37, 249 blocks until the having of 2028. And as of today, September 1st, you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 917 SATs so you know precisely what to do. Pick up the SATs, put down the gats, pick up some bitcoin caps from a man Sergio over@bitcoin caps.net let's continue. Next up, let me get my screen ready here. We'll do our ta we'll pull up the live charts as we always do. The shakeout before the breakout. That's actually our next topic of conversation here, so give it a go here. Next up, shake out before the breakout trader that called the May 2021 collapse says Bitcoin is just seeing a classic impulse move up. That's right. Well known analyst referring to Dave the Wave he shared on X that bitcoin's market cap showing classic signs of upwards impulse and according to the analyst chart the flagship digital asset is following traditional five wave pattern known as the Elliott Wave theory. The theory asserts that upwards price swings occur in five waves with the fourth wave acting as a corrective move while the fifth and final wave takes the impulse to go higher. Dave the Waves analysis suggests a pretty little bitty will find its local top near the end of the 2025 or early 2026 which is ultimately hinting that we have the extended cycle and we don't peak out this year and we peak out the following year. Let me know if you agree or disagree with Dave the Wave and the Elliott Wave Theory. The analyst goes on the note and appears that if Bitcoin has found support at 107 which we're currently above 109 at the time of the live and back on track after faltering last week, he calls the move a potential before the breakout. JV calls it a little shake and bake. Now Bitcoin technical support coming through and here you can see the Elliott Wave theory on the chart with the Fibonacci. Last week the analysts predicted bitcoin would surge to a price tag of 180 before the end of the year, saying the dip was small compared to what it experienced during the last few legs of the bull run leading him to believe it will continue to skyrocket up forever. Laura Perspective people. The bitcoin bull run has seen 2:30 corrections. This 8% is not much to about and he makes a great point. Compare that to the previous cycles where we've had 8090 corrections. 30 ain't nothing especially 8%. I mean what is that at the end of the day and we're not too far off from recapturing all time high but some analysts are saying we're going to test a hundred thousand dollars. But you guys got to let me know. Do you think the bottom is in or do you think we'll go much lower? Let me know and I'll read those comments out loud. Next up, pulling up some of the live charts here. We're going to do some live chart action. Jackson Satisfaction, Bo Jackson, Tony Braxton. Dedicated to the Baddies. You're looking at the one hour chart via trading view via coinbase and you can see a couple of bullish targets. The one in the teal sitting at 111. 7. That's a nice little rhyme for you. 111. 7. Send it. We also have the Red Mega Bull sitting at 122. 2. That would take us right on the cusp of price discovery. Virtually a couple of thousand away. 2. That's all I got to say. And taking it zooming out, we'll get some different looks. Four hour chart, falling wedge. A couple of bull targets as well. There's the teal 111. 7 and the red 1, 2, 3, 3. Again, 1, 2, 3, 3 in play on the four hour chart. Working our way back, let's check out the daily. The daily chart you can see here live on your screen. Daily chart shows a bull flag. There's a rising wedge and a super bull target. Bull flag to be specific. Sitting at 146 4. Again, 146 4. Bull Flag Sensation formation. And play on the daily chart. And taking it a step back, we'll take a look at a weekly. The weekly chart shows the rising wedgie. And here's the deal. We did get a weekly close in the red, which you can clearly see. The prior week was in the red. The week before that was in the red. But we just kicked off the new week in the green. Barely in the green. But nonetheless, we're here again. You guys got to let me know, do you think the month of September will be the September or the September? And I'll read those comments out loud here shortly. But first take a quick look at a monthly. And as you can see, we just kicked off the new month of September barely, barely in the green. And last month was a red close which killed our four months of green. Consecutive candle closes. So we finally got that corrective. But maybe this is the correction we need for that next leg up here right around the corner. So you guys gotta let me know your thoughts and I'll read your comments out loud. Next story of the day, Bananz launches Mexico entity meta planning a 53 million dollar investment let's break this baby down, shall we? Bananas the world's largest. And yes, I say bananas in respect out of Janet Yellen who made it famous. Banana. It's the largest centralized exchange as you guys know, expanding its operations in Mexico by launching a new local entity and a fresh investment commitment. Let's break this baby down. Bance announced the launch of the New Mexico based entity. I don't know if it's Meta Amida, but it's spelled M E D A. In a statement shared on Monday, it registered as an electronic payment fund institution and will operate as an independent division focused on advancing the fintech services for Bance throughout Latin America. With a planned investment exceeding 1 billion Mexican pesos, which is 53 million USD over the next four years, bananas aims to expand access to innovative, user friendly digital services through this vertical, creating a positive impact on the Mexican population. And yesterday we discussed the first Mexico treasury play. If you missed that episode, check it out. Episode 2093 Bonanz emphasized the Mexican financial authorities regulate its new Latin American entity as the IFPE to facilitate deposits and withdrawals and Mexican pesos. It'll be managed and operated by an independent team ensuring operational autonomy, the company added. This independence will set a new benchmark in Mexico by implementing the best practices that foster healthy and sustainable development between traditional financial sector and the virtual assets ecosystem. Bonanza's regional Vice President for Latin America said that Mita aims to become a major local rival amongst platforms enabling transactions and Mexican pesos. He stressed that Mexico is a key market for Ban with a population exceeding 125 million, it's pretty substantial. Recognizing that the increased competition benefits the consumers, media will provide a Mexican population with access to the higher quality financial technology services at a more affordable cost. And there you have it. Yo, let me know your thoughts. With Bance expanding into Latin America, Mexico for the win. Next up, crypto is just one growth cycle away from mainstream adoption with 5 billion users. That's right, the crypto industry may just be one cycle away from reaching full scale mainstream adoption, making digital assets a globally accepted alternative payment means, according to the industry insiders, there'll be an estimated almost 659 million crypto holders at the end of 2025. Not too shabby? Asks Ashy Larry. And speaking of Ashy Larry, there's a Chappelle reference and let me know if you guys used to watch the Chappelle show. However, continuing crypto adoption may see the industry surpass 5 billion users. How many humans are there even on the Earth? It's like 8 billion. That practically means the bulk of everyone, maybe minus the children, would be using the crypto. Send it. Within 10 years we'll reach 5 billion users. Said this dude during a panel discussion at the Wabit Summit 2025 in Monaco. Shout out this guy in Monaco. He says we're about one growth cycle away from the full mainstream adoption. I'm not talking about the 1 billion users. I'm talking 5 billion. Take that Peter Schiff. We're one cycle away. Let me know if you agree. I dare say why not? Adding that 5 billion milestone means crypto will be used ubiquitously as credit cards for payments today. I got to agree with that. I mean who in their right mind will continue to use the fiat knowing hyperinflation is damn near taking away their purchasing power? And like we're witnessing already, it's only going to get worse. Meanwhile, bitcoin's the polar opposite. It increases your purchasing power against the fiat monopoly dollars. However, he added that only the experts expect the big wave of the mainstream adoption after the market recovers from the following down cycle. At the beginning of the next bull market cycle, reaching the first billion users would signal significant mainstream acceptance and establish crypto as an alternative payment system fulfilling the original vision of the one and only Satoshi Nakamoto who created the biddy as a censorship resistant peer to peer transaction tool. One of my favorite Max Kaiser quotes Bitcoin is God hacking humanity. Mainstream crypto adoption may push the Biddy to the ultimate price of 700 000. I dare say that's not even the Bitcoin final form. Bitcoin Super Saiyan. Bitcoin Super Saiyan based on an assumed 3% portfolio allocate. Exactly. What if we did an assume 6% portfolio allocation? All of a sudden we're 1.4 million per coin. You can't short your dork, you can't afford it. And this is according to the Willy Woo. He knows all. He's practically Neo from the matrix. But anyways, you can see the adoption curve chart right here with the S curve going parabolic I dare say. And you can see right now only 4.7 bitcoin. And you can compare that to the Internet adoption in the red and you can see the growth is about to get insane. That's right. So having crypto now is like being in a part of the Internet in the 90s. We're just getting started. Retail price speculation sensations may be the first path way to bring the first billion users akin to the 2021 market cycle getting to a billion can happen one of two ways. Price speculation being a huge driver for the retail interest. Or we've seen that in 2021 where the market more than quadrupled in a span of a few months due to the retail speculation and the investors. And you know what's different? This cycle we finally got institutional FOMO like a mofo. All the previous cycles were purely driven off of the retail. I dare say retail haven't even began this cycle. They'll jump in when we're at 200000 because that's just what they do. They love purchasing it at the all time high when it's on sale. They're like screw that, why should I invest? It's going to go lower and then they get wiped out and they lose their positions and then they complain I don't buy bitcoin, it's too expensive. So I'm a shitcoiner and I invested all my money in the Kanye launch and I lost everything. It happens. Now the second option would be through actual usage of blockchain tech such as payments, which would imply consumer behavior changes that take longer compared to the other market trends. Other industry insiders, Senior director of engineering at Coinbase sees blockchain application usability and more beginner friendly apps as the key to reaching the first billion of the crypto users. And this handsome gentleman right here, that's the one and only Jan3 Samson Mao. He says the best is yet to come. He says we can still hit a million dollars this cycle. It's going to happen in a violent upheaval. Let me know if you agree disagree with the one and only Samson Mao. And speaking of Samson, I want to talk to Samson. I don't know what movie that's from, but it's stuck in my head. Next story of the day fam crypto funds see 2 and a half billion worth of inflows despite the fall in prices. That's right, crypto exchange products. The ETPs log two and a half billion worth of inflows last week according to the latest data. But despite the inflows, bitcoin struggled in terms of market price slipping under 108,000 after briefly trading above 113 earlier in the week. Ether also tumbled below 4,003 hundo after starting the week above 46. Echoing the Bitcoin turbulence, last week's inflows were notable following 1.4 billion of outflows the previous week but remain far short of the 4.4 billion record set in July. Spot ether ETF remain market dominance last week attracting 1.4 billion of inflows while the bitcoin funds recorded smaller gains of 748 million. Both Ether and Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows last Friday, ending a six day inflow streak for Ether and a four day streak for the Biddy. In the meantime, Solana and xr. Yes, I say Salana, that's just how I say it. And XRP continue to benefit from the optimism around the potential US ETF launches, posting inflows of 177 million and 134 million respectively. Despite the 4.3 billion of inflows in August and 35.5 billion year to date, crypto fund assets under management slipped to around 7% which is 219 billion from 234 billion the previous week. August inflows were significantly lower than July when crypto ETFs attracted a record 12 billion amid the 15 week inflow streak now compared to the 22.4 billion of inflows year to date as of September 2024. Current year to date inflows of 35 and a half billion represent a 58% increase. Cryptos Fund asset under management have surged 165 over the same period despite the ongoing inflows of the crypto funds. Bitcoin saw 301 million of the month to date outflows on Saturday, Sat Stack and Saturday While the ether ETPs capture nearly 4 billion or more than 91 of the August total inflows. And if you don't know now you know. Next up, Meta planet Bitcoin holdings reached 20,000 BTC and issue 11 and a half million shares met a planet making big move moves Japan's top Bitcoin treasury firm just acquired another 1009 Bitcoin reaching 20,000. That's a pretty epic milestone just as the firm issues millions of new shares. According to the Monday Meta Planet announcement, The firm acquired 1009 Bitcoin reaching 20,000 BTC for 16.479 billion yen, which is 112 million of the USD monopoly dollars. On the same day, the firm announced the issuance of eleven and a half million new shares last week following investors exercises for warrants to acquire the stock. According to the Bitcoin Treasuries. Meta Planet is currently the sixth biggest and top Japanese bitcoin Treasury Konishi WA. To the BTC, the firm paid an average price of 102,600, not too shabby per bitty, which results in 6 3/4 of a percent profit compared to the bitcoin price at this existing time. They're in the green. That's all that matters. The investor in question, evo Fun acquire 10 million shares at 5 and a half and 1 and a half million at just under $6 for a total of 65.7 million. Meta Planet spends those proceeds to finance the early redemption of approximately 20 million worth of the previously issued bonds. Evo Fund still has the right side. The additional 34 and a half million shares. I mean, again, massive milestone. In all seriousness, there's not many companies that can say we have 20,000 bitcoin on the balance sheet. This ranks them number six on the entire planet. And they're just scratching the surface. Clearly. Strategy B Michael Saylor's company has a massive advantage against all the rest as they had the first movers advantage and they're fast closing in on 700000 Bitcoin. We also have the likes of Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager. They have well over 700,000bitcoin. There's only so much of this finite bitcoin to go around, if you know what I'm saying. Massive demand, limited supply. Stock to flow numbers going up forever. Laura. The announcement also comes as Meta Planet faces mountain pressure from the mountain lion. Not that type of mountain pressure, jv but with the share price tumbling, threatening and fundraising the model it has used to build the Treasury. The Firm stock dropped 54% since mid June despite Bitcoin gaining 2% during the same period. Analysts highlight the fall in stock prices make exercising warrants for the Evo fund less attractive, squeezing Metaplant's liquidity, reducing the capability to acquire more of the prelo biddies. Still, the firm's strategy appears to be evolving and adapting to the new situation. Last week, for example, Metaplan had announced a plan to raise approximately 130 billion yen through a public share offering in overseas markets. What are they going to do with all that? Buy more bitcoin. It's called the Sailor put, you know what I'm saying? It's like the Bitcoin alchemists being manifested in Japanese form, if you know what I'm saying. Konishiwa after the strategy once known as the micro strategy. Ain't nothing micro about their strategy, right? Devised the corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy, adopted it with great success. That's an understatement. Many companies decided to follow in its footsteps. Yeah, there's massive amounts being birthed now every week. Still, this Strategy is not guaranteed to work in the long run. In fact, several bitcoin treasuries appear to be already in deep trouble. In fact, the bitcoin treasuries can fail when the bitcoin price drops and their stock net asset value premiums disappear. Long story short, if the companies don't know what the they're doing, there's no guarantee that they're going to have the same success as let's say a meta planet or Michael Sailor's strategy. I dare say they're is no second best. And just because Michael Saylor is massively successful with his company going from what were they once worth before the bitcoin adoption I think the balance sheet was like 400000 in cash or sorry, 400 million. And it was, he described it was a melting ice cube. They had to do something about it. This is back in 2020 they adopted the Bitcoin strategy. First public trade company to do so. The rest is history. Today their company market cap somewhere around 120 billion. So they flipped a 400 million dollar company into over a hundred billion dollars in five years. That's the power of the bitcoin. And if you don't know, ask the Fed chair Nipinator and maybe he'll answer your question if you're polite. All right fam. Now for our feature story of the day, the one and only Anthony Scaramuche predicts bitcoin will skyrocket to 500,000 per coin. And he outlines when. So let's break this baby down. And as you know, that's the founder of Skybridge Capital, one of Wall Street's loudest bitcoin advocates and has put for forward one of his boldest predictions yet. Bitcoin climbing to a half a million per coin within the next five to six years. My response, why so bearish, Mr. Muchi? His call isn't just hype. It's built on a mix of institutional adoption trends, historical lessons from his own invest career and the idea the bitcoin is still in the early innings compared to the established asset classes like gold. And we all know that bitcoin's going to eat away the gold market cap. Just a matter of time and gold market caps like right now like 23 trillion. At the same time the mooch is not sugar coating the path forward. He warns the crypto market can see a 40% correction before such a rally materializes. Hence the shakeout before the breakout. Now could bitcoin really plunge before it rallies? Let's entertain the idea shall we? The Mooch's warning about the potential drawdown matters because it underscores the truth that many retail traders forget. Which is Bitcoin's growth story has always come in cycles. That's right. Typically it's a four year cyclical cycle. The last decade has seen multiple 3050 corrections only to be followed by explosive rallies pushing the prelo biddy into a new price trajectory. And the million dollar question becomes is the four year cycle still intact or will we get an extended cycle for the first time ever? In his view, a sharp sell off shouldn't be misread at the end of the bull market. It may actually be a setup for the next phase of growth. Investors who panic sell during the downturns, he argues. Risk missing the long term. Wealth creation he believes, is still ahead of us. What makes 500000 a realistic Bitcoin target? Let's break her down. Here are the several factors according to the Mooch. Institutional adoption. We're still early like on Shirley. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies are only beginning to allocate the digital assets. Even small shifts in portfolio allocation could push the pre low bidding market cap dramatically higher. Now also scare scarcity and supply shock. Obviously with bitcoin having cutting the new supply every four years. And the last having was April of last year. And this is the year preceding the having which is typically the most bullish time of the season. Reason now? Demand shock tend to be outsized for the impact of fixed supply. 21 million coins underpinning the thesis the Bitcoin could rival gold as a store of value. That's right, Max says for every twenty dollar increase of Bitcoin, maybe gold increases a dollar. So bitcoin will continue to do what it does best now. Asset class legitimization, he argues. At around 500000 per coin, Bitcoin went into the same league as goal, which carries a 21 trillion market cap. That recognition would reshape how the institutions and regulators view the crypto. And speaking of the shape shifting reptilians. But that's the topic of another conversation. Lessons are from the tech stocks. The Scaramuche has admitted to selling Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia too early, only to watch them become trillion dollar companies. So for him, bitcoin isn't the don't sell too soon trade of the next decade. So what does this mean for investors right now? Number one, expect turbulence. That's a given. Captain Obvious. Volatility isn't a bug, it's a feature that's Right. I welcome the volatility. That's how we get million percent price increases against the US dollar. Keep it coming please. Now think long term. If Scaramucci is right, holding through the corrections could mean capturing once in a generational wealth opportunity. And that is 100 accurate. Anyone who has held with Diamond Hands Bitcoin for four years or longer is in the green. If you held for two to three cycles, that's life transforming wealth for you and future generations to come. I'm just saying that's what history has shown us. The bigger question is the risk tolerance. A 40 correction could test conviction. Especially of those who have entered the market late. But at the same time ignoring institutional trends in the growing legitimization of bitcoin could mean sitting out on a historic price climb. That's precisely what you'll miss out on if you ain't got your bags packed. Just saying. Scaramucci isn't the only one eyeing six figures. Also Standard Chartered Bank Ark invest floating targets between 150000 and now Ark invests up their target of three. You know I mean by 2030. Let me know if you agree disagree with Cathie Wood. And there's a lot of bullish targets to keep it fair. For example Max Kaiser is calling for 222 000. He's also calling for 2.2 million. And we also have Samson Mao projecting we can still hit a million dollars this cycle. We have Arthur Hayes. Just Blaze. Yeah. I mean he believes we can still hit a very advantageous target in the next few years for this cycle. Including a million dollars which we have entertained. There's Adam Back, Bitcoin OG himself. Creator of the hash Cash. Yes please. And he also predicts. Predicts we could hit a million dollars. JV your boy right here. Nipinator indicator 1.1 million cycle peak 222 bear scenario 420. Of course yes we're based for the broskis. That's just a base case. And if you don't know, you don't know. Watch out for the Nipinator indicator only. Bitcoin indicator 100 accuracy and today we saw the Nipinator indicator and the Liquinator indicator. Just saying. But anyways. Welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream. Let me know your thoughts. I personally feel 500000 is a given. It's going to be an easy target by the year. Top of the decade. Another five years, another full cycle. I dare say we're destined to hit a million. The latest 2029, but I think it can potentially still happen 2026 with an extended cycle theory and if not this cycle, next having is right around the corner 2028. That's why I said 2029 because it's typically the year preceding the having we hit the cycle peak if history is to rhyme. But there's no telling what a constipated Janet yelling banana because she got the poo poo in her pants with that being shared, let's read some of the comments. Unless you live in the Cali. If you leave your bitcoin too long, get great reminder about the crappy California. If you want to huddle the bitcoin, move out of Cali already. The only thing good about the Cali is the Cali weed. I dare say I got some good gun show if you know what I'm saying. I know from firsthand experience. Nipinator indicator in full effect. He's looking to go nuts again, Broskis. He's looking to go nats. Here we go. Here's an update. Thank you Oracle Update Michael Saylor strategy could join the S P500 as early as this Friday. So that's something we can celebrate. Good stuff. Five, four more days. Here's the headline Strategy qualifies for the S P5 hundo inclusion decision could come Friday after a record Q2 10 billion net of the income growing for the Bitcoin balance strategy meets all index criteria as the S P Committee prepares its September announcement. That's right, one company is going to kick rocks because it can only be 500 companies in the S&P 500. I also heard rumors it's going to be in the 100. Is there an S P100 with the top 100? It should be in the top 10 considering it's the top performing stock. But I mean sailors laughing all the way at the bank. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.