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2120: Bitcoin Supercycle Unfolds - $1M Target and Nation-State Adoption ‘Suddenly’ Phase
00:29:57
Samson Mow warns that nation-state Bitcoin adoption is about to enter the “suddenly” phase, triggering global FOMO unlike anything seen before. At the same time, Eric Trump predicts $1M Bitcoin, echoing the boldest forecasts yet as political...
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- [00:01]
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Welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one daily Bitcoin pod and Happy Satsdack. And Sunday in today's show I'll be sharing the latest technical analysis as well as the latest from Plan B, creator of the Bitcoin stock to flow model. Also, Michael Sailor just posted the infamous Sailor tracker which means tomorrow he'll most likely announce another massive acquisition a stack in the biddy. We'll also be discussing options and derivatives. Take Bitcoin to 10 trillion market cap. I'll be breaking down this latest analysis as well as Trader maps out the Bitcoin path to 220,000 per coin be sharing his timeline. We'll also be discussing us Bitcoin ETFs post 900 million in net outflows in the past week. We'll also be discussing a Bitcoin strategic reserve may be bad for Bitcoin and the US dollar. Well, at least according to this crypto executive. We'll also be discussing nation state Bitcoin adoption to enter suddenly phase mode according to Samson Mount. I want to talk to Samson. We'll also be discussing Eric Trump believes Bitcoin a reach 1 million and I'll be sharing his latest insights. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. But anyways, without further ado, if you're new to the Rumble important smash the likes, give us a follow then hit the repost over on X. The x account is BTC News Alerts. Today is Pod episode number 2120. Your host JV alongside my co host Fed Chair Nipinator. Keeping them nipinating today is 9-28-2025. It's nice to see Bitcoin above 1104 at the time of the live stream up over $11,000 on the day. As you know we had a very corrective week. Let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. Pulling up coin market cap.com the current Bitcoin market cap specifically is floating at $2.2 trillion. Even even McEven. As I say, some people say even Steven. I've always rolled with McEven so it is what it is. And as far as the total crypto volume in the market it's 3.81 trillion market cap volume metric coming next followed by bitcoin dominance. The volume is 98 billion. It passed 24 hours down 6% on the day and the bitcoin dominance has been on the climb. It's currently 57.8%. Ether dominance has been on the decline today it is 12.8%. Checking out top one hunt crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got Z cash in the pack with my favorite omen 11.11. That's an 1111 baby baby story up 9% and also aether up never heard of it. Up 8% on the day. Which coins if any are you bullish on for the bull? Holl at you boy. Checking out the crypto bubbles. Get a visual perspective on the daily. Yesterday damn near everything was in the red. Well today everything virtually flipped. At least 90% of the market in the green today which we love to see green like Listerine and zooming it out on the weekly in which we will get a weekly close in roughly 90 minutes. Be able to document that as is going to be a two hour live stream but you can see rec city across the board 95% of the market. Massive wreckage. I would say checking out the monthly doesn't get any better a little bit. Still the bulk of the market in the red but I'd say 70% red, 30% in the green. Zooming it out for the year. When in doubt just zoom out and fortunately it looks like the majority back in a green. I'd say 6535 green over red. Checking out Crypto Greed and Fear index. Yes, yesterday it was the lowest we have seen. In a hot minute we were a 33 in fear. Today we're a 37 and last week a 49 and last month a 50 which is neutral. But anyways now let's do a little TA AKA Astrology for the baddies and of course for the Brosis Plan B creator of the Bitcoin stock the Flow model posted here recently on X. As you know I think the bitty bull market has not ended and it will continue I don't know until when or how high. It could also be a long steady uptrend with FOMO plus crash. In my opinion we passed the point of no return. The yellow dots back June 2025 similar to October 2020, February 2017 and January 2013. And you can see the infamous stock to flow model with these dots outline right here and it shows us pure bullishness. Someone asked waiting for the next video. Yes, I skipped a month because my usual sailing holiday. Apparently he's a sailor u planning a new video in three days so looking forward to that and we'll give you the insights when they come in. Also Sailor posted the infamous Sailor tracker which ultimately his way of flexing on social media reminding everyone tomorrow will be another acquisition announcement for strategy and as you know they're the largest bitcoin holder corporate wise, almost damn near 750,000 BTC. And so yeah, shout out to the Gigachad. We'll keep you posted tomorrow when we get the announcement. And now for some live chart action. Jackson Status Faction, Bo Jackson, Tony Braxton dedicated to the baddies Here you're looking at a one hour chart via Trading View brought to you by Coinbase. Or I should say Coinbase brought to you by Trading View be more accurate. But you can see right now we do got 1, 2, 3, 456 seven of the last eight candles are pretty substantial green gainers and that's why we're up now over 1100 on the day, which is nice considering we started the day off very low and we do have a bull target in the teal Here it shows at 111. And you know, anytime I read the number 11 it's like, you know, it's God reminding us of how great we are and that we're on the right path and that bitcoin's going up forever. Laura. So can I get an Amen 111 in play on the one hour chart? No bear targets in sight here, which is pretty dope. And checking out the four hour, we should have a big fat candle. In fact there's three consecutive green candles which means 12 hours of pumpage on the four hour chart. And we do have a red target we which would take us right back on the cusp a price discovery. Current top is 1245. We achieved early August and obviously it's approaching the very end of September. October, only three days out. And this particular bull scenario, falling wedge Target on the 4 hour is sitting at 123150. Again 123150 full send it. And we're not even going to entertain the bear target because why would we? We're the most bullish show on the planet. I mean why would we even dare. But checking out the daily you can see as well. Nice green candle on the day. Yesterday was a corrective on Sasak. And Saturday, Friday we also had a green, a green candle. And you can see we do have a bull target, a bull flag which is pretty significant on the daily chart because it's sitting at 146, 430 and 146. That's roughly, you know, 2122000 above the current firmament which is currently sitting at 124 5. So that's going to be the next leg up. I personally feel that's inevitable for the fourth quarter. Nipinator agrees. Hence the Nipinator indicator, the only Bitcoin indicator with 100 accuracy. So all hail the Fed chair. Nip and bear scenario around find out. No need to entertain it. Let's check out the weekly. And we will get a weekly candle. Unfortunately it will absol be in the red unless we get a massive pump during our livestream, which is not likely. So we are going to get a red candle here shortly.
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See mint mobile.com and then hopefully the green momentum fulfills the prophecy for the rest of the year. As historically between October, November, December we typically see 70 to 80% gains in the fourth quarter. Starting with the month of October being 30 to 40% gains. And you're going to notice there's a rising wedge. You're going to notice last week we closed in the red. Itty bitty candle. You're going to notice this week obviously it closed in the red. More significant than the last week and then the previous weeks before that. We did get two consecutive green candles early September, but it's been bearish for the latter half of this particular month. So it is currently a septem bear, unfortunately. Actually I take that back. We're probably still in the green, but barely. Check this out. Let's get the monthly perspective and I am correct. We are still barely in the green which means if we can maintain above 108 for the close within the next couple of days, then we do get a green candle for the month of September, which is rare. Typically we get like negative 4 to 5%. That's what history has shown us and that's why we got the nickname September. But thus far it has been a September but barely. But as long as we hold on to where we're at, we can close with some green momentum leading into October in the fourth quarter, which historically is the most bullish season of the year. So I'm looking forward to it. I'm still leaning towards 222000 happening, but you guys let me know your thoughts. Next story of the day. Options and derivatives to take Bitcoin to a 10 trillion market cap as I mentioned earlier during our market watch, Bitcoin market cap today is just shy of 2.2 trillion. So this means a 5x or 500 gain let's entertain it. Derivative products like option contracts, financial instruments, they give investors the right but not the obligation to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price will drive the bitcoin market cap to at least 10 trillion, according to market analyst James Van Stratton. He said the options and other derivatives attract institutional investors cushion markets for high volatility and that's the hallmark of digital assets. He pointed to the open interest of the bitcoin futures on the cme, the world's largest derivatives marketplace as evidence of a shift. Quoting them here, CME options open interest is at an all time high, partly driven by systemic volatility selling strategies like covered calls. This points to a more mature market structure with deeper derivatives liquidity around Bitcoin as the outlines here on X now. Reduced volatility does work both ways and the crushing drawdowns common to the markets will also dampen the meteoric gains traders have been accustomed to, according to the analysts. Market analysts continue to debate the effects of financial derivative products and investment vehicles on the bitcoin market cycle and the broader crypto market, with some arguing that all signs point to market maturation, while others say investor psychology is the true undercurrent that moves the market. So is the four year market cycle dead? And this is a very significant question. Now obviously it remains divided amongst analysts. You have CMOs. Raka, CEO of Financial Services company Zappo bank shared that the bitcoin four year cycle isn't dead and markets will continue to be influenced by news cycles, crowd sentiment and investor psychology. Also quoting them here. Many people are saying oh the institutions are here and therefore the cyclical sort of the nature of Bitcoin is dead. I'm not sure I agree with that. And then you have Bitcoin advocate Matthew Crater said that the human psychology is a real undercurrent that moves the markets, arguing that investors are just as irrational as retail participants. Quoting him here, the very last bitcoin crypto bear market from 2021, 2022 was mostly caused by the institutional investors doing really stupid things at place like Grayscale, Genesis 3, Arrows Capital, FTX etc, all of those companies that ended up filing for bankruptcy, you know, I mean that ended up being Ponzi or scams etc, but it is all very interesting. Also I want to give some honorable mentions. Samson Ma, I want to talk to Samson, which we'll cover in greater detail later regarding nation state adoption. He believes in the theory of the extended cycle. Max Kaiser believes in the theory of the extended cycle Michael Saylor believes in the theory of the extended cycle. So a lot of the OGs and the Bitcoin bulls are all saying pretty much extended cycle, even Arthur Hayes, pretty much everyone we cover. But a lot of the analysts we have never heard of before, they're sticking to the four year cycle. Personally I'm a little skeptical. I'm leaning more towards extended cycle which would ultimately mean we don't hit the cycle peak until the following year. Meaning historically we would hit the cycle peak this year and then it would be a bear 2026 and a bear 2027 until the having year of 2028. Re sparking, you know, the crypto bull. I think things are most likely to be prolonged considering things are way different this landscape with the institutional adoption and etc. Yeah, I mean it's like Max, I think sharing, paraphrasing them, he's like Sailor has artificially created an extent extended cycle, changing the whole market structure which we are accustomed to with the institutional adoption and all the other treasury plays in the market. And now we have the nation state adoption, the nation state fomo, the nation state game theory, the global hash war and all that happening which we've never had in the previous cycles. So something to consider, but what do I know? Next story of the day. Early on here in the show we're going to entertain 220,000 right in alignment with JV's base or actually I should say my bear scenario for this target. Let's intersect, dissect and break her down. Crypto trader, known for his timely bitcoin calls, outlining the bitcoin price coming in the months ahead. Based on Elliott Wave theory where you get the five waves for the cycle, we cover this pretty commonly shout out credible and that's who we're referencing as the analyst. The Elliott Wave theory states that a bullish asset will experience a 5 wave surge with waves 1, 3 and 5 serving as the uptrends, while waves 2 and 4 act as the corrective periods. Quoting the analyst, zooming out remind you of where we are in the bigger picture so you don't get lost on the lower time frames and panic unnecessarily. High time frames remain unequivocally bullish and the current correction is considered normal healthy in the high time frame context. The chart which we're about to share clearly shows the important significance of the 74 level, while the significance of 74 is an 117 plus 4 fam. But I've been talking about a while for this and why it is so relevant. The current correction should either hold above the lows of 98 what we are calling running flat, or potentially wick below them what we call the expanded flat. But in either scenario there is no change in the high time frame structure. So keep calm and get through this correction because what comes next is what we have been waiting for our whole lives or since 2018 according to the analysts. So this is a hypothetical with the Elliott wave theory you can see in the blue wave 1, then you can see the corrective wave 2. Next parabolic run up wave 3, corrective wave 4, another parabolic run up for wave 5, which would take us at around 220,000 per coin. So this is the scenario 3 he outlines in the green, currently in the subwave of 2 to 5 larger impulse that began off of 74, the blue path assumes running flat and the green path assumes expanding the flat. So that's according to the chart. Let me know if you agree or disagree. 220000 which may potentially be I'm no.
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- [19:06]
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With summer closing down and schedules ramping up, finding time to work out feels almost impossible. But with Tonal you get fitness that fits your life. Tonal lets you train at home, combining the convenience of a full gym with the expertise of an always on personal trainer in one sleek system. Zero drive time, zero wait time. Tonal is designed to reduce your mental load too, trading your workout planning for the workout. Doing that delivers results. No more second guessing your technique. Tonal gives you real time coaching cues to dial in your form and help you maximize every rep. No wasted time, no wasted effort. After a quick assessment, Tonal delivers personalized resistance that adjusts automatically as you get stronger to keep you challenged. Intonal tracks your progress to take the guesswork out of working out. Whether you're choosing an expert led strength, arrow hit yoga or mobility workout, want to see how Tonal can help you maximize fitness in minimal time? Try Tonal now at Old Orchard to experience the ultimate strength training system firsthand and with both hands. Tonal at Old Orchard is ready when.
- [20:16]
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You are in the first quarter of 2026. Hence the extended Cycle theory in alignment with the Elliott Wave theory which takes us to around March of 2026. Next story of the day fam headline reads US Bitcoin ets post 900 million of net outflows of the past week hence why we've had a correction pretty significant this week. There were more outflows than inflows which is great indicator. So yeah, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs endured some of the most difficult days in the recent months. Over the past week with the market sentiment flipping and the bitcoin price stolen, several U S investors cashed out their positions. The world's largest crypto the BT etc After posting strong performance over the past few weeks, the tides appear to be shifting for the Bitcoin ETFs with investor appetite of the US seemingly waning. Not Nipinator, his appetite for the bitties are always at peak level. Just saying. Hence the apex redder stacking the bitties Nipinator Nipinator indicator the greatest indicator ever exists. The only bitcoin indicator with 100% accuracy. But I digress. This latest round of withdrawals ended in inflow streak of four consecutive weeks for the spot Bitcoin etf. So one month of bullishness correction healthy in my opinion. According to the latest market data, the US Bitcoin ETS registered a daily net inflow of almost 420 million. Happy 420 Broskis Friday, September 26 this performance continued the terrible run of form of the crypto link investment products while recording only a positive inflow day for the past week. Breaking things down Fidelity with the ticker FBTC posted the most significant daily net outflow, losing more than 300 million on the day. Black Rocks iShares Bitcoin Trust had a daily withdrawal of 37 million in second place for losses and then Bitwise Bitcoin ETF which is ticker Bit B recorded a daily net outflow at 23 million on Friday while Arc Arc B lost 17 million. Grayscale BTC Trust were the only Bitcoin ETFs with double digit outflows. So all losers at the end of the day. Vanek Bitcoin ETF HODL was the only exchange traded fund to record any activity on Friday. Thank wow. A daily net outflow of 9 million. Negative 418 million performance amounted to a cumulative 902 million outflow in the past week. So yeah, just losses across the board. This negative weekly performance marked the end of the streak for the four consecutive weeks of positive inflows. In the previous two weeks, the US spot Bitcoin ETS registered more than 3 billion of capital inflow as the macroeconomic conditions shifted in favor of the risk assets. However, the crypto market seems to have cooled off as seen with the price of the bitcoin over the past week. Up until today, we finally just got a pretty decent pump. Just reclaim 111 at the time of the live stream. I mean there's a little silver lining also there's been mass volatility. We bottomed at 1186 then climb right back out, you know, 116, 117. And now we're cracking again and again. It's the very end of September and October is only three days away. Keep that in mind. With a bitcoin price struggling at the moment, it is no shock the Bitcoin ETF has seen a massive withdrawals the past week as of this time. Like I said, Bitcoin is back on the rise here on a Sunday which is pretty lit and we do get our weekly close in roughly an hour. Stay tuned. Next story. A Bitcoin strategic reserve may be bad for Bitcoin in the US dollar Now let's hear his argument here. Establishing a national bitcoin strategic reserve may create negative market impact for bitcoin and the dollar, according to Hater Rafik. I've never heard of him, but he is the global Managing partner for government and investor relations at the crypto exchange OkX. Can we trust someone as a managing partner for government? Probably not, but we're still going to entertain it. It Rafiq shared that any government holding significant portions of the bitcoin supply could manipulate the prices by dumping its holdings onto the market. That is true, thereby disrupting the core proposition of Bitcoin as a neutral to centralized money. He asks what happens in a few years if a new administration decides this was a bad idea? I mean, genuine concern, right? Quoting him here. Despite recent bipartisan support for crypto, it is essential to remember that administrative policies can change quickly. Exactly. What if they went back in the hands of the Dems and like Hunter Biden was the next President of the United States and he just reverses everything the Trumpster did? Just speaking out loud. As circumstances change over time, the concentration of large amounts of bitcoin on a country balance sheet could represent a liquidation risk. The German government was an example of this. 2024 it uploaded 50,000. Bitcoin kept prices supply suppressed below the 60,000 level. The Bitcoin strategic reserve continues the top of the mind for many of the bitcoin advocates who say establishing such a national state level bitcoin treasury is the next step to making Bitcoin the global reserve currency in the standard monetary unit of account. So establishing a bitcoin strategic reserve then in theory can create a contagion that wouldn't just be limited to the crypto markets, but have widespread macro macroeconomic effects. The most significant macroeconomic implication will be the loss of confidence in the dollar. Now naturally it's the President's job to make sure the dollar is strong. So it's like bitcoin could be a double edged sword. Now building a bitcoin reserve signals that the US dollar, which underpins the global economy, is weak and cannot sustain its value on economic strength alone. This could send shock waves through the entire financial system as investors flee the US dollar for safe haven assets such as gold or the Swiss franchise. And another example is the bricks movement. Right? It's the de dollarization of the dollar. Now investors would also dump risk on assets, creating a cascade of liquidations across financial markets that would likely culminate in a significant crash as markets respond to the seismic shift in global finance. That was the conclusion of Rafi Rafai, wherever you pronounce the name. But he does actually make some good points there. So let me know your thoughts on that. But now for our next story of the day. Nation state Bitcoin adoption to enter suddenly phase soon according to Samson Mao. I want to talk to Samson. That's right, the increasing number of the countries preparing to ramp up the video adoption after moving past the initial skepticism. According to Samson Mao, here's what he had to share. I think we're on the tail end of gradually and then we're at the beginning phase of suddenly. This is what he shared in the interview he did with Danny Knowles on the what did bitcoin or what bitcoin did podcast. These things happen very quickly, said Samsung, referring to the potential for more countries without a strategic biddy reserve. He says it is likely gradually then suddenly. I think it is simply a matter of time before we see a massive run up and then we see a massive nation state fomo, you know, panic. Amen. Mao emphasize that President Trump had signed the executive order establishing the strategic bitcoin reserve, but the US still hasn't started buying. Mind boggling, isn't it? However, he pointed to the nation as pushing forward with budget neutral Bitcoin acquisition and a Bitcoin Act Galaxy Digital head of Firm Wide Research Alex Thorne recently said this is a high likelihood that the US Government will form the highly anticipated strategic Bitcoin reserve by the end of the year. Well, damn near near the end of the year as we're approaching the fourth quarter in three days. Come on Trump, you're making us look bad. While the US still leads all governments and total Bitcoin holdings, Samson shared that June as the US has to start acquiring bitcoin this year. The risk is that the US is front run by Pakistan. At the time, the US government allegedly US holds 198,000 Bitcoin according to the Bitbo data. However, who really knows and they haven't shared proof of reserves, just FYI now anticipate significant Bitcoin moves from the Latin American region, which he says is one of the areas he is most bullish on. Cheers to my Latin American regions. I mean I'm in Puerto Rico. That would ultimately mean Central America, South America, obviously bitcoin countries there in Central America. And there's a lot of countries in South America who are talking bitcoin adoption and also the biggest the U S.
- [28:25]
D
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- [28:56]
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- [29:17]
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Cementmobile.com country in South America, which has hundreds of millions of Latin Americans, which would be Brazil. Come on now. Now Fidelity Digital Assets said in a research paper in January and anticipates more nation states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds and government Treasuries will look to establish strategic positions at the btc. Meanwhile, Samson pointed out the bitcoin's price hasn't played out how many market participants figured it would in 2025. Quoting them here, we should have had a bull run already, like a massive race run up. Agreed. That's why I think it's going to be that much more significant when we do actually run up. But now quoting, let's see here. So I think this cycle, if you want to call it a cycle, is delayed. It might push into next year, according to Samson. Now other analysts, including Matt Hugin, a Bitwise chief investment officer, echoed a similar sentiment to Samson. He said, let's see, I broadly think we're in for a good few years. Bitcoin trading at 1094 down 2% of the past 30 days and again now we're up just a little bit since then. But Samson and Hoogan's comments come as the industry continues to debate whether Bitcoin's usual four year cycle is still relevant now that the ETFs and institutional demand are at play. It was only in June that Samson said the 1 million bitcoin price tag is a given at this point. Maybe this year, maybe next year. And that's right, it can still happen. So keep that in mind Captain, and we'll go from there. But let me know your thoughts regarding the latest from Samson. Now, do you believe in the theory he believes extended cycle violent upheaval happen all suddenly all of a sudden million dollars per coin. Now for our feature story of the day. Eric Trump believes bitcoin will reach 1 million and the prediction markets say something different. So let's entertain this right here. In a recent interview with the New York Post, Trump Eric Trump stressed bitcoin and crypto are the new financial trend and that financial institutions are all hopping onto the crypto train. Chugga chugga choo choo, awaken a demand for the asset class. Trump, who is self declared hard asset guy, revealed he had to turn to crypto as a result of the debanking of his family due to the conservative beliefs. That's right. That he banked him for this reason and how bitcoin solves the current problem of the fiat system. Even Eric predicts that bitcoin will have an explosive growth soaring on the wings of the interest rate cuts during Q4. Right in alignment with what we've been saying. Quoting Eric Trump the future is bright. The future is incredible. And I think the fourth quarter of this year is going to be unbelievable for a host of reasons. Send it Trump assessed, highlighting he believes the bitcoin will surpass $1 million per coin due to its implicit value. I couldn't agree more. Nonetheless, prediction markets are not so bullish on bitcoin hitting such high numbers of the short term. For example, in social media, Poly Market posted that less than a 1% chance its users believe this might happen. That's kind of crazy. The prediction market, which has a volume of over 28 million, anticipates there's a 61 chance the Bitcoin ends this year over the 125,000 mark. So a new all time high, at least from where we're at. This means there's a consensus that Q4 will be positive, but it will not host an explosive growth for the asset as predicted by the other analysts. So let's see if we can pull up this particular post from Polymarket, which is considered the largest, you know, betting market and let's see what they had to say. Hopefully this pulls up here shortly and loads for us. It's loading. Just give me a second. Yep, here it is, Justin. Eric Trump says Bitcoin will surpass a million. This was posted two days ago, September 26th and then it showed just a 1% chance. Breakdown here and let me actually click on it and we can read you directly from the Polymarket website. You can see hitting a million 1% chance. So if, if you're a firm believer it will, you can bet on it and get incredible odds. 2% chance of hitting 250,000 according to Polygon. 5% chance of hitting 200,000. Wow. Only 5% chance. That's kind of crazy to me. 10% chance. 170,000. And again, this is for the year 2025 cycle peak. 20% chance we hit 150,000. 30 chance we had 14000049 chance. 130 000. And then you see that 63 chance here of hitting a new all time high above 125. At least that's the majority. 8% say less than 70 000. Yeah, I think that's an insane bet right there. 4% say less than 50 000. Another insane bet and the most insane bet. 2% of the people believe that will close below 20 000. And I guess that would include Jimbo Kramer, Peter Schiff and Gareth Solo. Solo way. But there you have it. Yo. Let me know your thoughts regarding the Polygon betting market and the odds and everything we just discussed and I'll read your comments out loud and welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream. Shout out boss 33. Appreciate the repost and we're still hovering at 1109 at the time of the live up $1441 on the day. I'm gonna stick around for an additional hour to give you what you came for, a double dose of JV Nipinator so I'm glad to be here fam. I'll start reading comments out loud. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle SA.