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2123: Telegram Founder Says $1M Bitcoin Inevitable - Supercycle Has Begun
00:30:08
Telegram founder Pavel Durov declares that Bitcoin is destined for $1 million, signaling the supercycle has officially begun. With BTC holding near $118K and data projecting a 50% Q4 rally toward $170K, the path to seven figures looks clearer than...
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Happy sober October Bitcoin market is pumping up over 3, 200 on the day. Welcome to uptober. In today's show we'll be discussing the latest technical analysis and everything you need to know in the market happening right now. We'll also be discussing U. S. Senate to hold hearing on crypto taxes as the IRS offers relief on corporate tax. We'll also be discussing meta planet becoming the fourth largest corporate Bitcoin holder after their recent 600 million dollar buy. Also gold about to climax into massive price target according to a trader that called the 2021 market cycle top. We'll also be discussing bitcoin's rare September gains. D5 history data predicts a 50Q4 rally to 170000 per BTC. Also in today's show, Bitcoin is destined for 1 million per coin, says telegram founder Duroff. I'll be breaking this down for you. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. If you're new to the rumble important smash the likes give us a follow and hit that repost. It's free to do so. Over on X is how we hack the algorithm. And remember, tickets to escape the matrix are priced in btc and with all that being shared, we're going to kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. Pulling up coin market cap.com you can see the bitcoin market cap is surging currently $2.339 trillion. Let's check out the overall crypto market cap which has been pumping as well pretty impressively here today on the first day of October. Sober October. Yeah. So the breakdown here is as soon as it loads 4.02 trillion total crypto market cap. This is good. Yesterday it was like 3.9 trillion. And we're just on the cusp of reclaiming the all time high. And the current all time high price is124.5 achieved back in August, now a couple of months back and I think we're going to hit a new all time high this month in October. But you guys got to let me know your thoughts and check it out. Top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. Zcash leading the pack again today. It was leading the pack yesterday and Today it's up another 55% which gives Zcash, which is a OG privacy coin. 95% gains in the past seven days. That's actually pretty impressive. Dexi up 15% and Pump Fun up 15%. Which alts if any are you bullish on for the bull? Holl at your boy. And next up, let's check out the crypto bubbles. Get a visual perspective on the day. It's good to see virtually everything in the green today. As you know, it's been a rough past couple of few weeks I should say. Checking out the weekly. Does it get any worse? Just a little. It's like 90 in the green. Overall very impressive. You can see Z Cash floating in the middle up 94 on the week. Checking out the monthly, mostly bullish. So you know a lot of the gains have resumed. Z cash up 194% on the month. And across the board pretty respective gainers. You got avax up 33%. Shitcoin pump fund token up 112. And I mean it is what it is. Checking out the yearly, let's see, definitely majority of the market in the green which is nice. I'd say 80% green, 20% in the red. Some of the big gainers of the year. XRP up almost 400%. XLM which is stellar. Lumens which is a fork of XRP up 300%. Zcash up 322%. OKB a native token on a centralized exchange up 358%. Chain link up 90%. Ether up 66%. So massive gains across the board. And checking out the Crypto Greed and Fear index today it's a 49 neutral. Yesterday was a 50, last week a 44 in fear and last month a 46 in fear. And let's dive into today's TA aka astrology for the Broskis. We did recapture around 118.3 on Coinbase a little earlier. So here's the latest. What's happening in the market and why we're a pumping and ripping like a new Scotty Bibbin here in October. Here's a four hour chart and I'll be pulling up the live charts. Stay tuned. Bitcoin sought six week highs after Wednesday's Wall Street Open as the market shrugged off the US government shut down. That's right, there's a shutdown. Bitcoin USD came within $150, a beating the September maximum. Doing so would lead to its highest levels since August 17. Quoting analysts REC Capital Bitcoin trying to break out from the monthly range already on the first day of the new month of October. And he also shared this chart right here. U.S. private employment numbers came in significantly below expectations, turning negative when estimates have projected a gain of 45,000 jobs for September. Labor market weakness is considered a tailwind for crypto as it heightens the odds of interest rate cuts and thus increase capital inflows. The latest data from the CME Group Fed Watch Tool showed markets were overwhelmingly betting on a Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter percent at its October meeting. So I mean 99% chance shees continuing. Fellow trader Jelly described the Bitcoin price action is pushing through the resistance like it isn't even there. One last thing to worry about is a sweep of the September highs. Clear those and the bears will have very little leg to stand on. I do got to like point out though I believe there is a CME futures gap which got left in the dust at 111 over the weekend. So you do got to keep note of that. We're up significantly since then. Others focus on potential support rate tests. According to dan, crypto trades flagging 112 is accused termed support he says ideally don't want to see the price revisit that, but it's up to the bulls to take it from here. A proper breakout in some of the daily closes above the channel would signal this is ready for a move to new highs to me. The new US Government shutdown meanwhile failed to impact the buoyant mood across risk assets. Both the S and P and Nasdaq opened modestly higher while Gold consolidated after hitting the latest new all time high on the day. QCP Capital stated the shutdown should be of little importance, quoting them here on fiscal theater. A U.S. government shutdown should be a market non event. Beyond data delays and headline noise, essential services continue back pay limits, income effects and past episodes have not derailed the risk assets. They also say given Bitcoin's elevated beta to equities, we see shutdown related dips as buy opportunities rather than chasing gap ups. And there you have it. Yeah. Next up let's pull up some of the live charts. Checking it out right here via Trading View via Coinbase, the largest exchange in the States. This is the one hour and we'll work our way backwards. We do have a big bull target inverted head and shoulders on the one hour chart printed at 125 again 120, 120,500 that is. And you can see the big green candles here this morning pretty impressively and we've been rising slowly but surely and let's see how high we can climb. And again we already captured 118.3 before we cracked it some and we're currently 1174 at the time of the live stream. Checking out the 4 hour. You can see big green candles all morning. Beautiful sign. You can see there's a red target at 123 which would take us back on the cusp of price discovery currently achieved at124.5 back in August. I feel it's inevitable. This is the month we're going to bust right through Reclaim. New all time highs I would guess.
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In the 140 to 150 range for October but you guys got to let me know your thoughts. There's also a bear target sitting all the way down at 97,500. But all eyes on the bull right now. Checking out the daily the daily you can see a big green candle on the day yesterday was the itty bitty corrective and then the two days prior were respective green candles as well after we bottomed out at the local low of roughly 108. You can see a rising wedge on the daily and we do have a big bullish flag purple target sitting at 146.3again on the daily chart. Bull flag target and play for the bitty 146. 3. Send it. God bless you Nipinator and checking out the weekly chart and don't let's not forget about nipinator indicator. You can see there's a rising wedgie. There is a target which is a bear scenario 883 on the one week chart. Also you're going to notice this week just we're halfway through is hump Wednesday but we already have a respective green candle printed. Last two weeks we closed in the red unfortunately and they were corrective. My personal opinion. I think we're going to continue with green weekly closes for the rest of the year. October, November, December send it and checking out one more perspective for the monthly. You're going to notice a green candle already forming for the month of October and also even though September is historically September and bearish, we did get a close in the green so we really can't complain. Prior to that in August we closed in the red. But I again I I'm going to reiterate I think we're going to continue with green bullish momentum throughout now to the end of the year hitting new all time highs and how high she shall climb. You guys let me know your thoughts. And again welcome everybody joining the live stream. There's RTA on the day baby baby. All right, next story of the day Fam. Check this out U S Senate to Hold a Hearing on Crypto Taxes as the irs sorry, irs offers Relief on Corporate Tax that's right, the U S. Senate Financial Committee will hold a hearing Wednesday. I guess that's today. Day after the Treasury Department and IRS issued interim guidance easing corporate crypto tax rules, the treasury and the IRS on Tuesday issued interim guidance aimed at easing compliance under the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax acronym camt, including for companies operating in the digital asset sector. Signed into law under the former President Biden as part of the Inflation reduction Act of 2022, CAMT imposes a 15 minimum tax on the financial statement income of large corporations. The two pieces of the latest interim guidance, Notice 202546 and Notice 2025 49, intend to reduce compliance burdens and provide clarity on complex areas of the CAMT until final regulations are issued. One of the guidance documents, Notice 2025 49, provides guidance on applying the CAMT under Sections 5556A and 59 of the Internal Revenue Code Code. It particularly details amendments to adjusted financial statement incomes allowing digital asset companies to exclude unrealized gains and losses on digital assets held as fair assets from CAMT income. So ultimately, depending upon the applicable financial accounting principles, this interim guidance may apply to holdings of digital assets. According to the notice 2025 49. According to journalist Eleanor Tourette, companies like sailor strategy, which holds 640, 000 Bitcoin with 13 and a half billion in year to date, unrealized gains would have faced billions in CIMT liability without relief, which is mind boggling. Imagine having to pay taxes on unrealized gains now. The latest guidance from the IRS came a day before the Senate hearing on examining the Taxation of digital assets. The hearing will be held by Financial Committee's Chair Mike Crappo. What an interesting name, Mike Crappo. Interesting. With the participation of Coinbase Vice President Tax Lawrence Zlatkin and Coin Center Policy Director Jason Salman Sato, the hearing follows the White House Digital Asset Working Group's crypto recommendations in July, which urge lawmakers recognize crypto as a new asset class and adjust the tax rules for securities and commodities to digital assets. And there's the latest with the taxes. You already know my personal belief taxation is theft and I'm sticking to it. Not tax advice. Clearly pay your taxes. But anyways, here's the latest Meta planet becomes the fourth largest corporate Bitcoin holder after 600 million dollar buy that's right, they ain't slowing down, they're stacking more bitties Japanese investment company Meta Planet Konichiwa has acquired an additional 5,268 bitcoin worth roughly 600 million at the current prices. They just made the announcement today that the latest purchase has brought its total bitcoin holdings to 3,823. The move catapulted the Tokyo listed company to the fourth spot amongst corporate bitcoin holders overtaken the Bitcoin standard Treasury company. According to Bitcoin Treasury's data, the latest purchase was made at an average price of 17.39 million Japanese Yen which is 116,000 USD. D you know the monopoly dollars with an aggregate total of 600 million with the latest purchase as Holden's balloon to 3.6 billion acquired at an average price of around 108 per coin. Bitcoin Treasuries data shows the company's bitcoin strategy has already generated unrealized profit of over 7 and a half percent. Meta Planet started adding bitcoin to the balance sheet back in April of 2024 at around the time of the having and scaled faster than nearly every other corporate bitcoin holder. Many refer to them as the Japanese version of strategy Sailor's company. The filing shows that as bitcoin yield rose as high as 309% in late 2024 before stabilizing 33% this year. Bitcoin yield tracks the percentage change of the ratio the total bitcoin holdings to fully diluted shares. This gives investors a clearer view of how much bitcoin backs each share and it's all outlined right here showing you the Meta Planet bitcoin Yield jumped over 300% late 2024. Now a 309 bitcoin yield shows the speed of Meta planets. Bitcoin accumulation far outpace its shared dilution at each time or at the time each share had more than three times the bitcoin exposure than when it started. Now, despite the rapid accumulation and the speed in late 2024 the metric stabilized at 33% this year, suggesting that while the company is still acquiring Bitcoin, the growth in per share exposure has slowed. Meanwhile, public Companies have now surpassed 1 million in Bitcoin holdings which is roughly 5% of the circulating Bitcoin supply. Overall. Bitcoin and treasuries include ETFs, governments, exchanges and private companies. That has now reached 3.8 million Bitcoin worth 442 billion. Just BlackRock alone and their IBIT Exchange Traded Fund ETF they have roughly I think now over 800000 Bitcoin and now with Sailor with 740000 Bitcoin collectively that's like almost 1 1/2 million Bitcoins between two companies. Also altcoin based Treasuries gain traction. We have ether based Treasuries including reserve entities and ETFs holding 12 million ETH worth 52 billion. On the other hand, Solana base treasuries have reached 20, almost 21 million. Solana worth 4.5 billion according to strategic Solana reserve data. Next story of the day Fam. Check this out. Gold about to climax into massive price target According to the trader that called the 2029 market cycle top and as we announced Yesterday it hit almost 3900 per ounce. So it has been on the climb. Here we have Dave the wave predicting gold will soon hit a massive price target as the precious metals bull run continues. He actually shared on X that gold will likely hit 4,000. That's another roughly 3,100 increase in the near term as he predicts 7,000 per ounce in the coming years. Peter Schiff can't stand it right now. I don't know how he's dealing with this. The trader shares a monthly gold shard suggesting that the precious metals in the midst of a steep uptrend. You can see the chart here, go USD closing on the shorter term target and that's just because the dollar is so weak and getting wrecked by all risk on assets, you know, I mean but anyways and they also say we covered this yesterday that Bitcoin could be trailing behind gold and what we're witnessing gold going on a parabolic run up. Bitcoin's about to repeat that same run up in the coming weeks. Let me know Your thoughts on that theory now. Next up, the analyst says Bitcoin may be gearing up for an explosive breakout after entering consolidation phase. Quoting Dave the one wave people easily forget the Bitcoin did a massive 64% move recently from 74 to 123. It fixes this the side word ranging nearing the length of that move. He also points out the bitcoin continues to trade within what he refers to as a logarithic, a logarithmic growth curve which aims to pinpoint the macro highs of the lows of the bitcoin market cycles while filtering for the short term volatility. Bitcoin effectively tracking the one year moving average and consistent with the log growth curve explosive gains early on then increasingly plateauing maturing market. The logarithmic growth curve Same curve since 2018 where the Bitcoin price couldn't currently be better placed. So sign of the times Bitcoin about to have a parabolic breakout. He also points out, according to this chart if you really analyze it, that Bitcoin could potentially hit 400000 per coin between now and 2028, the year of the next having. I also like to point out that the stock to flow model which we did cover I believe is a feature story in yesterday's podcast projects bitcoin reaching between a half a million and 1 million between now and 2028, which is almost in alignment with Dave the way Dave the waves projection which we just pinpointed. All right, next story of the day fam another bullish prediction here for Q4.4 Bitcoin's rare September gains defy history data predicts 50% Q4 rally 270,000 well historically we collectively see a 70 to 80% rally in Q4, especially the year preceding the having. So 50% would kind of be modest but still take us to 170,000. So let's entertain this and next up we'll be discussing the inevitable 1 million price target target from Telegram founder which he just recently shared. But anyways, bitcoin on track. We actually closed September and we closed in the green and to be up 4 or 5% in what is historically a September is actually a great outlier and I think that sets the precedent and sets the stage for this fourth quarter which is a great sign and especially considering today we're up roughly 4,000. We already tapped like 118 and some change. So I think those are all good signs personally. Now according to the data, when bitcoin closed the green candle in September of 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024 Q4 produced average returns of more than 53% breaking it down further October average 22% November 11% 1111 baby and December was down 3.2% highlighting October as the key ignition ignition point while year end performance varied. So in those instances when bitcoin on the post Q4 returns range between 45 to 66% often leading Bitcoin to new highs. If a similar pattern plays out, Bitcoin could be eyeing170,000 region before year's end based on the current levels and here's the data numbers don't lie. 2015 October return 33% in 2016 15, 202329 and in 2024 11. Then you can see the returns for November, the returns for December and the Q4 total return 2015 was roughly 67%, 2016 51, 2023 50% and 2024 45. Now seasonality data shows October typically acts as a launch pad with gains extending into November and in certain years the second assemble. The effect has been profitable in post having years exactly good key point as capital inflows and market positioning push bitcoin into fresh price discovery. Now bitcoin's network economist Timothy Peterson who noted roughly 60% of the Bitcoin annual performance tends to occur after October 3rd with momentum often extended well into June. The analyst further suggests there's a 50% probability of Bitcoin reaching 200,000 by mid-2026, which would be extended theory, extended cycle, right? Not just ending the bull here but it continuing into the first and second quarter. Quoting them here this year it is almost certain to be positive based on history and developing market conditions. However, most of the time the big gains don't start until about the third week. Well you can say the big gain started today because we did pump $4,000. I mean pretty significant now while past performance does not guarant the tendency for bitcoin to accelerate higher after a green September adds weight to the bullish projections for the coming months with bitcoin trading firmly. It's crazy because this article was must have been published yesterday when we were 110. Guess what? Today we're freaking 118 so well above 110 and 110 was actually a few days ago now but we've been on the upwards trajectory so we we close September strong now. Onchain metrics also reflect this strengthening bullish outlook for the bitty, referencing the cumulative volume data known as the CVD not to be confused with DVD on the 90 day basis. Flip positive on Monday mark in the first green signal since July 14th. This indicator tracks the cumulative difference between market buys and market sell volume, with a positive reading suggesting a take or buy dominant phase where the buying pressure outweighs the selling activity. Meanwhile, Coinbase Premium Index has heightened consistent accumulation by U.S. investors. Data shows concentrated clusters of green activity as you can see in the chart during the third quarter, signaling aggressive spot demand not seen since early July. The alignment of the Coinbase Premium with the spot taker CVD shifts reinforces the view that the buying momentum is building in the market and you already know yo all right fam. Now for our feature story of the day. Bitcoin destined for 1 million per coin, says the Telegram founder. That's right, Telegram founder and owner Pavel. And let me know by the way, how many of you actually use Telegram. He is convinced Bitcoin will eventually sell for a million a coin. Well, absolutely, While the future of fiat currencies is not that certain. Can I get an amen and a new interview for Lex Friedman's podcast? The tech entrepreneur discussed a number of topics around him, including his troubles with the government, the lizard people, freedom of speech and the right to privacy. Now Pavel admitted he has been a big believer in bitcoin since almost the very beginning of the leading crypto. He got his first bitcoins in 2013. That would make him an OG. That was the year preceding the first having at the time Bitcoin's peak was $700 when he just threw a couple of millions in there. I you can use your imagination how much that is worth now, right? And when the following year bitcoin fell to $300, it didn't get care too much and wasn't going to sell anyway. Better to ride that mofo to zero. Nobody can confiscate your bitcoin from you. And that's the value proposition. Broski's Nobody can censor you for political reasons.
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Why Bitcoin is priceless. This is the ultimate means of exchange. Couldn't agree more. The Russian born businessman reveal his Bitcoin investment and not his Telegram business helped him fund his lifestyle. He says Telegram is a money losing operation. For me personally, Bitcoin is something that allowed me to stay afloat which leads me to believe without Bitcoin he wouldn't have been able to achieve what he did with Telegram. Bitcoin was funding the operations here and I believe it will come to a point when bitcoin is worth $1,000,000. I couldn't agree more. Let me know if you agree. Disagree Pavel suggested reading the trends garment keys Printing money like there's no tomorrow, he pointed out, noting that at the same time Bitcoin has a predictable inflation which stops at a certain point. He was positive Bitcoin is here to stay. While it remains to be seen whether this will be the case with all the fiat currencies in existence today. Answering a question he has likely heard many times before, Pavel insisted Telegram has never shared a single private message with anyone, including governments and intelligence services. That's powerful now, emphasizing you can't say the same for Zuckerberg, emphasizing the data. Zuckerberg's like yes, lizard folk, whatever you like your will be done. The messenger is encrypted. He stressed that the system's design makes it impossible even for Telegram to share user correspondence with state actors. Pavel rejected any notion this could happen in the future and declared that the company would rather leave a jurisdiction then do that. You got to respect it. Describing privacy protection as fundamental, he criticized authorities working against it, quoting him here from the Pod, you don't like the privacy and you think you should ban encryption in your country like the EU is trying to do for all its member states. We'll go ahead, we'll quit this market. Damn straight. Pavel commented on the recent woes in France where he was arrested, as you remember last year. In August, he spent time confined in a small cell amid accusations of complicity with crimes alleged enabled by his messenger. And we all know it's nothing. But at the end of the day they're trying to make an example of him because he's an advocate for free speech through his platform, which we all recognize, right? He also recalled attempts by the French government to exploit the situation he was in. For example, during Romania's presidential election last year he was at pass if he was ready to shut down Telegram channels supportive of the conservative candidate or opposing for pro European candidates. And then last week, the 40 year old Russian accused the French intelligence of also pressing him to censor telegram channels ahead of the presidential vote. Of course they're trying to censor speech and all that. Romania's close neighbor in exchange for favorable treatment and his ongoing legal case. That totally sounds illegal, but I mean this is the world we're living in. Pavel owns 100% of Telegram and has invested millions of dollars of his own money into messaging app, which only became profitable in 2024. The platform does not permit advertisements based on users private data, does not show private ads in the chats and small groups. Neither has the intrusive news feeds. Nipinator's like I thought he was like struggling, but he's. He's dreaming. So it sounds like he's struggling in his sleep, right? You hear him making all sorts of weird noises. Must be having a nightmare. Anyways, we had to innovate a lot in order to reach a point where he was profitable without having to resort to dubious business activities involving exploiting personal data of users. So unlike Zuckerberg, he's never sold your personal data to the governments and the lizard folk. I got to respect that. In 2022, Telegram introduced a subscription model for certain additional features and now has over 15 million paid subscribers. Haven't made more than $500 million from premium subscriptions this year alone. Good Lord. Half a Billy the messenger enabled in app payments and purchases for its growing ecosystem by the mini app developers charging a reasonable commission, is experimenting with blockchain tech. They also highlighted the development of the open network, which is ton or which is the the. The cryptocurrency blockchain started as a Telegram project but eventually launched as an open source community without its direct involvement. He also recently noted significant growth in prices of NFT gifts on Telegram, making TON one of the largest blockchains in terms of daily volume of NFTs. And there you have it. Yo. What are your personal thoughts surrounding his 1 million price projection in which he claims is inevitable? I double down that. I agree. 100 shout out Lex Friedman I'm sure that's going to be a fantastic interview. If you guys are interested in checking it out, I'm sure you can find it on Lex's podcast. And with that being shared again, welcome everybody to the Q A segment of the live stream. I appreciate the another repost from your facts. Richard Burton he made around 400 million. Must be referring to Pavel's Bitcoin gains there Broski Shout out Epic Coach Leon the love of money, correct, is the root of evil. Because money is a medium of exchange and if you stop you from reaching your desired state, then it's evil. Cause only imito that's exactly the point I was trying to make. And that's what I learned back in the day when, you know, I really studied the Bible hard. It was the love of money, right? The love of money, which is different than money. And there was a misconception because a lot of poor people, they have a bad conception of money which keeps them poor. They think to have money you have to be evil. That couldn't be further from the truth. That's what the lizard folk want you to think, that print the money, right? But it is the love of money, the greed, that obsession that could hold you down right from entering the kingdom of God. And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hle.