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2182: Billionaire Still Calling for $250K Bitcoin THIS Year – China Renews BTC Ban
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Ever notice how ads always pop up at the worst moments when the killer's identity is about to be revealed during that perfect meditation. Flow On Amazon Music we believe in keeping you in the moment. That's why we've got millions of ad free podcast episodes so you can stay completely immersed in every story, every reveal, every breath. Download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite podcasts. Ad free included with Prime. Shopify helps you sell at every stage of your business.
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Like that.
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Let's put it online and see what happens.
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Stage and the site is live that.
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Reopened a store and need a fast checkout. Stage thanks, you're all set that count it up and ship it around the.
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Globe Stage this one's going to Thailand.
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And that Wait, did we just hit a million orders? Stage Whatever your stage, businesses that grow grow with Shopify. Sign up for your $1 a month trial@shopify.com Listen welcome Bitcoin family to the.
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Number one Bitcoin pod and Happy Sat stacking Sunday Bitcoin's pumping back in the green in today's show we'll be discussing the latest TA and Michael Sailor did just post the Sailor tracker yet again, so expect a big announcement tomorrow and some more bitties he scooped up. We'll also be discussing strategy will sell Bitcoin as a last resort if the M Nav drops capital is unavailable according to this CEO of strategy. We'll also be discussing blackrock execs as perfectly normal as IBIT sees 2.3 billion of outflows this month of November. We'll also be discussing the Bitcoin mining difficulty forecast arise in December which begins tomorrow as the hash price sits near record lows. Also China Central bank reaffirms a ban on on digital assets. How many times have they banned digital assets only to reverse their ban? Insane. Also Bitcoin price prediction of Bitcoin to hit a million dollars according to a forecast. And on top of that I have another Forecast from Arthur Ha just blaze the billionaire himself sticking to his 200 to 250,000 bitcoin price prediction before the end of the year. Which means within the next 30 days we'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here. Satstack and Sunday alongside the Fed chair Nip Let a rip Tater chip. Today is pod number 2,182. I'm your host JV. Very significant day in the market today because it's November 30th, the final day of the November and Right before entering the D Bull. And we have the Fed chair, the Nip here with us. All hail the Nip. Be on the lookout for the Nip Anator indicator or the Nip Andator Li indicator, the only Bitcoin indicator with 100% accuracy. Bitcoin is up on the day as well, so we will get a daily close in the green. I'm just hoping we can get the weekly and monthly close as high as possible so we can enter the December. But yeah, right now at the time of the live, we're sitting at 91,500. Let's kick it off with our market watch pulling up coin 360. As you can see on your screen, you'll notice bitcoin in the green just shy of 92,000, up just above 1% on the day. Ether back above 3,000, up almost up 2% on the day. XRP up a half a percent. The bulk of the market is in the green, which is cool. Checking out coinmarketcap.com Total crypto market cap today 3.12 trillion bitcoin market cap 1.825 trillion coin market cap did launch a token. If you're wondering why you're seeing this all of a sudden, earlier in the week it just magically appeared above bitcoin because it's their own coin, so naturally they're trying to get as much attraction to it as possible. And you're going to notice the market cap is only $6 million and it's been a struggle since they've launched. I don't really have any insights on it, but that explains that Bitcoin dominance is 58.7%. It' back on the rise. Ether dominance back in the rise as well. Check it out. Top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got quant which has been one of the worst performing top cryptos of the past cycle, I dare say. But today it's up 11%, trading at 106 bucks. MyX is up 13% and Pump Fun up just above 9%. Let me know which alts, if any, you're bullish on for the bull. Paula. And checking out the crypto greed and fear index today, back in fear with a 28. Yesterday 28. The bottom we recently touched was a 10. Last week was as low as a 13 and last month a 29. And fear and checking out the infamous time chain calendar today. Block height 925, 909 and you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 10.93sats. So you know precisely what you do, you pick up the SATs, but down the gats pick up some bitcoin caps from a man. Sergio, show some support. If you like this bitcoin country cap, you'll find it@bitcoincaps.net and let Sergio know I sent you. So yeah, here's what we're gonna do. Let's continue. Let's look at the charts. Very significant day in the market because it's the last day of the week and it's the last day of the month and we've had horrible previous weekly closes and obviously it's been a horrific November to say the least. But let's start with the hourly work our way back as we're going to get some big closes here shortly probably during our live stream. You could see on the 1 hour chart there is a 115 target in play which is pretty nice. That would take us approximately a God candle away from the current firmament which is at 126. 3. Working our way back here. This is the four hour. We are back above the moving averages barely, but we are there no particular targets on the four hour chart. So we'll have to check out the daily. The daily has been pretty lit. We've had more green than red candles. That's a good thing considering the past few weeks have been predominantly all bloody, you know, rec city red candles as you can see here. So we're climbing back and God candle away less than a God candle away from the 100k milestone. But the significant charts I want to focus on here is this weekly chart and then the monthly chart. Now the weekly chart does show a wising wedge so we are ascending but we had a pretty significant correction. Clearly. 1, 2, 3, 4 pretty significant red candle closes over the course of the past month and now this is the fifth week where we're finally reversing four consecutive weeks of bear. This is important because number one, November historically is the most bullish month out of the entire year. It feels completely sabotaged and we're not going to get into that right now because I've been discussing that over the past weeks. But clearly things did not go according to plan. There's probably a lot of manipulation. I speculate with a high probability and for reasons we've discussed before. But finally we're going to get a green candle. That's a guarantee. So the weekly close will be in the green. We're going to. Which is a great sign. The not so great sign is we're all the way back from 91 after you know hitting the 126 all time high first week of October and it's just been a pure dissension. So we're finally ascending and I think December is going to be a big moment of truth so we will keep an eye on it and checking out the monthly again last day of the month before we enter December. Pretty significant losses here this month where we historically see 40% gains. We have witnessed 30 to 35% losses. We have recovered some. We're no longer at 80 and that was a flash crash. We're currently 91,400 is at the time of the live stream and obviously October November disappointed. Hopefully we close the month strong here in the December but there's no guarantee and remember there's just no telling especially have constipated Janet Yellen ban. But anyways we did our charts but let's continue with our next story. Bitcoin 2022 bare market correlation hits 98% as ETFs add 220 million that's right. Grim new Bitcoin price analysis from network economist Timothy Peterson concludes the year is eerily similar to 2022. Bitcoin disappointed the bulls with a 36% come down from the all time high just when many believe that the bull market's biggest gains were just about to hit.
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Of 2025 begins tomorrow. So they're saying Bitcoin's anything but bullish. According to this data from Peterson, Bitcoin mimicking the last bear market bottom as he stresses here on a recent post and on a daily and monthly basis, the correlation between this year and 2022 is striking. Correlation on the daily time frame is now 80% while the monthly equivalent has reached a full 98%. This chart on your screen shows that if history continues to repeat, a true Bitcoin price comeback may not happen until quarter one of next year. And this is right in alignment with the extended theory cycle. You know, we'll see what happens in December, but we may not get the all time high till Q1. Arthur Hayes still doubling down on his 200,000 to 250 year end price target, which we'll discuss later. And I got some other bullish targets, but analysts all across the boards let me know your thoughts. He wrote here it feels bad because it is this month ranks in the bottom 10% of daily price pass since 2015. It has been a disappointing month. A macro sentiment change still has the potential to deliver the classic Santa rally across risk assets before the year end. Crypto suffered conspicuously more than the stocks during the past month of the drawdowns, but the sign of a turnaround is quickly mounting. Reporting figures from JP Morgan this weekend say they announced massive inflows for the U S equities. They also announced the Bitcoin product. Ironic enough. Also, equity funds have seen 900 billion in new capital since November of 2024, with 450 billion in the last five months alone. By contrast, other asset funds have pulled in just above 100 billion. Put differently, equities have attracted more inflows than all the other assets combined. Equity inflows remain remarkably strong. The latest data the US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, hints of the worst of the institutional crypto selloff could be the past. Bitcoin ETS finished Thanksgiving week with 220 billion of inflows while the ether equivalents took in $312 million. And that makes me question if they meant 220 million of inflows because billion seems outrageous. It seems if we had 220 billion of inflows into the ETFs this week be trading at a million per coin. But correct me if I'm wrong, I'm calling out a potential error here in the article. Source. Glad I caught it. But with that being shared, some more positive news. Sailor did post the infamous Sailor tracker and anytime he has posted this in the past on a Sunday, that means the following day Monday he's going to make another announcement of acquiring more Bitcoin. Which will lead us into our next story of the day with the latest from Strategy. Strategy will sell Bitcoin as a last resort. If the M Nav drops, capital is unavailable. This is according to their CEO Fung Lee of Strategy. Strategy would consider selling Bitcoin only if the stock falls below the net asset value and the company loses access to fresh capital. That's according to Their own CEO in a recent interview on what Bitcoin did, they said strategies multiple to net asset value were to slip under one and finance and options dry up. Then unloading Bitcoin does become mathematically justified to protect what he calls the Bitcoin yield per share. However, he did note that the more would be a last resort, not a policy shift that move I would not want the company that sells Bitcoin exactly. Strategies model hinges on raising capital when it shares trade at a premium to the nav, using the money to buy Bitcoin, increasing the bitcoin held per share when the premium disappears. The CEO said selling a portion of the holdings to meet obligations could be acceptable to to the shareholders if issuing new equity would be more dilutive. And here you can see their current holdings as of August 11th 649870 Bitcoin valid at 59 billion purchase at an average cost of 74,000. And my apologies, this is of recent the August 11th, 2020 date is when they started holding Bitcoin with Sailor's Company here being the first publicly traded company to put the biddy on the balance sheet. Yeah, so an average cost of acquiring of 74, 000 and with a profit of 22%. Not too shabby. The warning comes as investors scrutinize the company's expanding fixed payments tied to a suite of preferred shares introduced this year. Lee put annual obligations near 750 million to 800 million as recent issues mature. His plan is to fund those payouts through the first equity raised at a premium to the M Navigation, quitting them here. The more we pay the dividends out of all of our instruments every quarter that's seasoning the market to realize that even in a bare market we're going to pay these dividends. Then we do that or when we do that, they start the price up. And beyond the balance sheet metrics. He also defended the long term thesis on Bitcoin as a scarce non sovereign asset with global appeal. It's non sovereign. It has a limited supply. People in Australia, the us, the Ukraine, Turkey, Argentina, Vietnam and Spain, South Korea. Everyone likes the bitty. And last week, as you know, Strategy launched a new Bitcoin credit dashboard to reassure investors after Bitcoin's latest drop and a sell off in digital asset treasury stocks that the company, the largest corporate holder Bitcoin by far says it has enough dividend coverage for decades even if the Bitcoin price stays flat. So take that Bears is ultimately saying we can go down lower and lower and lower we're still not selling our Bitcoin now strategy claims its debt remains well covered if Bitcoin fails its average purchase price of 74,000 and still manageable even at 25,000. So straight up telling you the market can crash Bitcoin all the way down to 25,000. Sailor still not selling. I mean there you have it. Next up Black Rock Exec says Perfectly normal As IBIT sees 2.3 billion of outflows and in November that's right, the black Rock Spot Bitcoin ETF closed November under pressure after experiencing heavy withdrawals, but the asset manager remains confident in the long term outlook for the product. Speaking in Sao Paulo, BlackRock business development director Cristiano Castro said that the company's Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the biggest revenue drivers and I believe from the fees, calling their growth a big surprise given how fast allocations surge this year. Castro's comments followed a rough math of the BlackRock US listed IBIT, which logged an estimated 2.34 billion in net outflows just across the November. The two largest withdrawals came mid month with about 523 million leaving November 18 and roughly 463 million November 14. ETFs are very liquid and powerful instruments, castro reported and said after his panel at the Blockchain conference. They exist to let people allocate capital and manage the cash flow. What we've been saying is perfectly normal. Any asset that starts to experience compression usually has this effect, especially in an instrument that's heavily controlled by the retail investors. And here you can see the IBIT performance over the past month. Now BlackRock's Bitcoin ETFs near to 100 billion in peak assets. Castro added the demand earlier the cycle peak speaks for itself. Combined US Brazil listings under the IBIT name plate came very close to 100 billion in assets at their peak. Black Rock Spot Bitcoin ETF holders returned to profit after Bitcoin climbed back above 90,000 on Thursday. Investors in IBIT now sit on a cumulative gain of 3.2 billion, reversing the losses seen during the bitcoin recent pullback. IBIT and Black Rock Ether ETF holders were also nearly 40 billion at their peak early October before the profits collapsed to 630 million last week.
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Ever notice how ads always pop up at the worst moments when the killer's identity is about to be revealed during that perfect meditation? Flow on Amazon Music we believe in keeping you in the moment. That's why we've got millions of ad free podcast episodes so you can stay completely immersed in every story, every reveal, every every breath. Download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite podcasts ad free.
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B.com meaning most positions were close to break even until the latest rebound. Also spot Bitcoin ETFS ended four weeks of heavy withdrawals with a 70 million weekly inflow, reserving part of the 4.35 billion that left the sector during no November. Also spot ether ETS rebounded, logging 312 million in weekly inflows after losing 1.74 billion over the previous three weeks. Next story here. Bitcoin mining difficulty forecast to rise in December as the hash price sits near record lows that's right, the bitcoin mining difficulty is projected to increase during the next difficulty adjustment, scheduled for December 11, as the hash is a critical metric that measures expected minor profitability per unit of computing power sits at record lows. Bitcoin's next mining difficulty adjustment expected to occur at block 927,360, marginally increasing the difficulty from 149 trillion to 1:49.8 trillion. The most recent adjustment, which occurred Thursday, decreased difficulty from 1:52.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion, resulting in an average block time of roughly 9.97 minutes at this time, slightly below the targeted 10 minute mark. And here is the infamous Bitcoin mining Difficulty chart from 2014 to current 2025. You can see its parabolic ascent. Despite the recent drop of mining difficulty, the hash price is hovering around 38.3 PETA hashes per second according to the Hash Rate Index, up from the record low of 35 reached in November. For context, a hash price of $40 ph. You know, slash S is a break even level for the miners to the point where they must consider the energizing their machines to continue to operate. The mining industry continues to face mountain challenges, including regulatory bans, restrictions, rising energy costs, geopolitical tension between the US And China that could disrupt critical equipment supply chains. The U.S. department of Homeland Security is investigating mining hardware manufacturer Bitmain, which is based in China, to determine whether its machines can be remotely accessed or used for espionage purposes. Very interesting. Now in 2024, everyone's least favorite Senator Liz Warren, one of crypto's most vocal critics, suggested that a6 could be used for spying on US military bases and sensitive national defense installations. But we know anything, she says. We don't believe it's like Jimbo Kramer or Jamie Diamond. I'm just saying. Bitmain is the leading manufacturer of the application specific integrated circuits used to mine the proof of work cryptos. The company commands a 30% market share, according to the University of Cambridge. Restrictions, tariffs or sanctions imposed by the company by US Officials could trigger supply chain issues for the mining industry, which is heavily reliant on Bitmain. So maybe some FUD Warrens trying to spread to try to FUD crypto and miners, I would assume. I mean, that's what she's best at, just as she was doing with the Biden administration. But I digress. Next Story China Central Bank Reaffirms a Ban on Digital Assets Again the People's bank of China reaffirmed its commitment against crypto trading after confirming a resurgence in market speculation. The the Chinese apex bank is nudging several government institutions to strengthen their crackdown on business and financial activities involving virtual currencies and curb related illegal operations. Back in 2021, China used the ban on all crypto trading and mining activities, citing a potential threat to the nation's financial stability and energy control system. And prior to that policy, the Asian giant had been one of the fastest growing crypto hubs with the highest mining activity in the world. Four years later, the, you know, Chinese government reiterated this hostile stance against virtual assets despite a significant increase in crypto adoption and regulation globally. This development came November 28th in a meeting centered on the Coordination Mechanism for Combatant Crypto Trading speculation. Notably, this policy discussion involved representatives from 13 government departments and agencies including the Ministry of Justice, the State Financial Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, amongst others. While China acknowledged the steadfast implementation of the government's notice on further preventing and handling risks of the virtual currency trading and speculation issued back in 2021, they also highlighted an increase in trading speculation and related illicit activities requiring new methods for risk prevention and control. In particular, the meeting reaffirm that that no form of crypto qualifies as a legal tender, including stablecoins, which they claim still fail to satisfy certain regulatory requirements. That's because they prefer straight up CBDCs quoting them here. Virtual currency related business activities constitute illegal financial activities. Stablecoins are a form of virtual currency and currently cannot effectively meet requirements for customer identification and anti money laundering, posing a risk of being used for illegal activity such as money laundering, fundraising fraud and illegal cross border fund transfers. Moving forward, the People's bank of China admonished all concerned government institutions to bolster regulatory action and enforcing the existing prohibitive policy of crypto on all related criminal actions. In line with President Xi quoting them here, this is what the directive read. All units should deepen coordination and cooperation improve regulatory policy and legal basis focus on key links such as information flow, capital flow, strengthen info sharing, further enhance monitoring capability, severely crack down on illegal and criminal activity, protect the property safely, safety of the people, maintain the stability of the economic and financial order. At the end of the day, a bunch of but that's China for you. I mean I've lived there. I know their government don't play around and not surprised, you know is what it is. They're playing games with us here. It's like if you're not using our central bank digital currency, there may be illicit activity and guess what? It's coming soon to a theater near you in the United States of America. Yes, Trump did ban central bank digital currencies. One of the first things he did when he took office. However, what's the loophole around that for the lizard folk? Stable coins. They can program them, they can have expiry dates. And all the bad things that can go wrong with CBDCs, the same can go wrong with stablecoins. And I already know the world agenda. They've been preaching these central bank digital currencies for a long time. It will happen. It'll just be disguised in America as a stable coin and that's that. Oh man, what kind of creatures are they letting in these wormholes, you know? Next story of the day, Bitcoin price prediction. Bitcoin to hit a million by 2035. And then we'll discuss Arthur Hayes sticks to his extreme 250000 year end price prediction which he doubles down on in a new interview. So let's start here with this influencer. He wrote Bitcoin first passed $11,000 November 28, 2013. Bitcoin first passed $10,000 November 29, 2017. Bitcoin first passed a hundred thousand dollars on December 4, 2024. So what do all these have in common? November and December, all time highs, you know. So therefore bitcoin should pass a million dollars somewhere around November December of 2030-2035. My response, why so bearish? But he says you simply can't argue against a sample size of 3 when predicting for everyone who solves crime from their couch, knows more about forensics than than their own job, and has trust issues with small town sheriffs. Amazon Music's millions of podcast episodes are calling. Just download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite true crime podcasts ad free included with Prime AI.
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Agents are everywhere, automating tasks and making decisions at machine speed. But agents make mistakes. Just one rogue agent can do big damage before you even notice. Rubrik Agent Cloud is the only platform that helps you monitor agents, set guardrails and rewind mistakes so you can unleash agents, not risk. Accelerate your AI transformation@rubrik.com that's R U B R I K.com the future and.
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This was off the back of this news fun fact. Eight years ago Bitcoin surpassed 10,000 for the first time in history. I remember when it happened in 2017. Let me know if you guys were around back then and we'll dive a little deeper on this topic here. Bitcoin's historical milestones offer a glimpse into the future trajectory, according to Roy Bassin in a tweet which I just highlighted, Bitcoin's remarkable growth from surpassing a thousand back in November of 2013, reaching 100 G's in December of 2024. Based on this pattern, his forecast shows Bitcoin could cross the million mark between 2030 and 2035. Personally, I'm sticking to Bitcoin breaking a million before 2030, meaning 2030 or before. I think it could still happen 2028, 2029 if we don't see it this cycle. My mind is open. But let's also entertain what Arthur Hayes just Blaze had to share. Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin's recent drop to 80,000 was a cycle bottom driven entirely by the trillion dollar liquidity drain. I agree with that and the Nipinator indicator never disappoints. Nipinator called the bottom he insists his 202, 50 year end price target for the Bitcoin still stands, citing the end of the Fed. Yeah, the Fed is dead QT and the coming liquidity upswing. He argues the ETF outflows and DAT weaknesses are misunderstood and that the preload bitty will accelerate once new liquidity becomes a visible not invisible but visible. Arthur Hayes is standing by his prediction the bitcoin to reach 200 to 250,000 December and we enter December tomorrow despite the October November crash and lingering market fear. And speaking on the milk Road Show Nov. 26. He said the most recent drop to ADGs mark the cycle bottom, arguing that the global liquidity of the dollar has turned a corner. Quoting them here. I'm going to stick with it. He said when asked if his 200 to 250 target still holds with only weeks left in the year for to be precise, if I'm wrong, it doesn't matter. I'm long and I'm happy still either way. And he makes a great point there. You know, he's long bitcoin, so short term trajectory, completely irrelevant if you plan on holding bitcoin for the long haul. Nobody cares what the fiat price action is going to be over the course of the next few months. However, it's fun. We look at the price. Yes, it's true. No matter what camera scene we switch to, the price follows you. How? How about that? We share the screen. The price follows you. A cam, the price follows you. B cam, the price follows you. There's no escaping the bitty price. But who cares? It's fiat. Here's the bigger picture. One bitcoin will always be equivalent to one bitcoin. One sat will always be equivalent to one sat. And the name of the game, Stack sats and stack bitties. Right. Price will fluctuate up and down. There's a volatility wave. We get to ride it. Enjoy the ride. And with that being shared. Welcome everybody to the Q and A segment of the live stream. That's what it's really about. Christmas. It's about the birth of our savior, Jesus Christ. I got my white Christmas tree put up with pink lights. White lights. Angelic and beautiful. More power to you. Fantastic. We got our tree all set up and decorated as well. We're starting to decorate the outside. Myself and Leilani put up two trees today, but we also plant one in the forest. How cool is that? For the new life to replace what we have used. I love that. More power to you, brother. 150 to 250 end of the year. One million for the cycle peak says the oracle. Send it.
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Ride or die, warrior. Zero to hero. Ride or die. Let's go.
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Dust in my lungs fire in my chest Bitty in my blood I can't rest I store mine safely in a yeti ice chest.
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They said I pull when the nights got long But I stacked up in the cold and proved them wrong.
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True grit like Wayne what pain? Hold your claim no safety net no bailout plan Just faith and code in a freedom land when the power cuts out and the world throws a pit that's when you see my true grid.
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Bitcoin ready generator steady Solar savvy contributed.
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Lit True grid I hard on my ground BTC bulls still roaming around we don't ride bulls we raise them legit Novembles rising that's true grit True grit Out of my ground BTC bulls still roaming around we don't ride bulls we raise them legit Novembles rising that's true.
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Grit True grit describes an unconquerable spirit, courage and strength of character to persist through hardship and achieve long term goals. It embodies a refusal to give up despite setbacks and challenges the mental fortitude that keeps faith and fire alive over time.
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They print that line I meant my.
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Proof Stacking sets under a God assigned sovereign and roof IG Y6 5 dips letter RIP Tater chip safety in the good clip we're flipping in that script by the dip Safety in the clip Every dip just fuels my BTC dragon.
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Flame can't shake the faith can't kill this chain no trust fund no Wall street fix Just cold and courage in my mix I walk through but I don't submit that's a marker True grin.
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Courage ain't the absence of fear it's riding on through it Like John Wayne said you saddle up and do it Boots in the dust had tilted just a bit when you stand your ground for true now that's true grit True.
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Grit I hot on my ground BTC bulls still roaming around we don't ride bulls we raise them legit November's rising.
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That'S true it's not luck, it's not charm it's the callous hands and the cold alarms Cold storage safe on Arkansas farms is waking up when your balance.
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Dips and whispering It's Marshall hanging judge for Smith diamond hands Grip by the bit bitty bitcoin it's going true grip.
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Through blood and sweat you won't forget if I fall again I still submit me my faith to God My true grit Never selling bitcoin cause God gave me it Mission complete Stack secured. Maxi confirmed. Roger out.
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And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.