2194: CZ Says the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Over — Supercycle Has Begun

Summary

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Podcast Summary

Podcast: Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC News
Episode: 2194: CZ Says the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Over — Supercycle Has Begun
Host: JV (Bitcoin News Alerts)
Date: December 14, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this episode of Bitcoin News Alerts, JV tackles the hottest topics in Bitcoin: the ongoing price correction, whether the classic four-year cycle is still valid, massive institutional inflows (especially from oil-rich Gulf nations), the tepid debut of 21 Capital’s Bitcoin stock, and Michael Saylor’s bold pitch for Bitcoin-backed banks. The highlight of the show is a breakdown of Binance founder CZ’s headline-grabbing comments from the Abu Dhabi Bitcoin event, where CZ declared the end of the four-year cycle and the dawn of a “Bitcoin supercycle.”
With colorful, irreverent commentary and guest appearances from “the Fed Chair Nipinator,” the episode blends technical analysis, macro indicators, and big-picture perspective with the show’s trademark no-BS, pro-Bitcoin energy.

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Market Update & Price Analysis

Current Market Conditions

• Bitcoin Price: Pulled back to $88,600 at the time of livestream
• Market Cap: BTC at $1.77 trillion; total crypto market at $3.04 trillion (down ~1% for the day)
• Fear & Greed Index: 21/100 — “Extreme fear”
• Notable Market Gainers: MyX up 19%, Sky up 11%
• Block Height: 927,893
• Sat Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1126 sats — “Pick up the sats or forever hold your peace. It’s a BOGO.” (03:54)

Short-term Price Targets & Chart Action

• Multiple bear targets on hourly, 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts
• Potential downside levels:
  • Hourly: $88.5k, $86.7k, $83k, $76.9k
  • Daily: Bear target down at $49k
• Analysis Tone: “We relivin’ the 80s here.” (06:20)
• Commentary: Ongoing sideways action, failed breakout attempts, multiple recent red candles.
• “We’re probably 35% from the top. Seize the moment and let’s get it.” (03:58)

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Macro Risks: Japan’s Rate Hikes and Bitcoin Corrections

• Macro analysts warn: BoJ (Bank of Japan) may hike rates Dec 19 — BTC corrections of 20-30% have historically followed these moves.
• “Every BoJ rate hike since 2024 coincided with a Bitcoin price drawdown exceeding 20%.” (08:13)
• “If history is to repeat, we can expect a 20 to 30% drawdown incoming very soon here.” (08:42)
• Main risk: Global liquidity squeeze, stronger yen triggers fresh “risk-off” moves, causing traders to unwind leveraged BTC positions.

Memorable Quote:

“Bitcoin will dump below 70 GS under these macroeconomic conditions... Do you think we’re likely to go down on the back of Japan doing what they’re about to do this Friday? Either way, price goes up, price goes down, just keep stacking.” – JV (10:30)

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2. Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? Contrasting Theories

a. 10x Research (Marcus Thielen): Cycle Intact — But Politicized

• 4-year cycle continues, but now driven by politics (election cycles) and liquidity, not halvings.
• “The cycle remains intact but is no longer dictated by Bitcoin’s program supply cuts. Instead, it’s increasingly shaped by U.S. election timelines, which also happen to be every four years.” (12:41)
• Institutional flows now dominate; watch political catalysts over mining events.

b. Arthur Hayes: Cycle is Dead — Liquidity Rules

• “The four year cycle for crypto is over…those patterns no longer reflect how the markets move.” (14:36)
• Bull/bear extremes now line up with global liquidity cycles, not halvings.

c. CZ (Binance Founder): Supercycle Has Begun

• “CZ… says the four year cycle as we know it is no longer a thing. Ultimately super cycle incoming.” (07:48)
• External forces like monetary policy and institutional inflows trump old models.
• “Bitcoin and crypto may be entering a super cycle.” (36:08)

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3. Institutional & Oil-Rich Investor Flows

• New Money from the Middle East:
  • Gulf sovereign wealth funds, state affiliates, family offices now using regulated channels (especially spot Bitcoin ETFs).
• Mechanism: Larger, more consistent ETF flows, deeper order books, narrower spreads, resilient derivative markets.
• Significance:
  • “These inflows could drive the next wave of liquidity… could support the narrower bid-ask spreads, greater market depth.” (15:36)
  • “Sovereign wealth funds… can introduce an additional layer of the institutional demand into the market.” (21:22)
• Comparison: Implies a new, deeper, less volatile base for BTC as institutional adoption ramps.

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4. Bitcoin-Backed Stocks: 21 Capital’s Rocky Debut

• Company: 21 Capital (ticker XXI), now public, 43,500 BTC in treasury.
• Debut: Stock plunged ~20% first day, despite massive backing and treasury.
• Insight:
  • Investor caution due to unproven revenue model, general risk-off climate.
  • “Its first day of trading… delivered a different outcome. The stock fell sharply despite the company’s large Bitcoin holdings and high-profile institutional support.” (25:55)
• Comparison:
  • “Third-largest bitcoin holder in the world publicly traded. Number one by far is going to be Saylor with over 660,000 Bitcoin.” (29:11)

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5. Michael Saylor on Bitcoin Banks

• Pitch: Saylor wants nations to build regulated banks backed by Bitcoin.
  • 80% allocation to tokenized credit, 20% to fiat, plus 10% reserve buffer.
  • 5:1 over-collateralization.
• Motivation: Lower yields in traditional finance, new savings options.
• Strategy:
  • “He has enough reserves in that stash to pay investor dividends over the course of the next 18 months to two years.” (32:44)
  • Hints at regulatory gamesmanship—Saylor’s prepping a fiat cash war chest to avoid forced BTC liquidations.

Memorable Saylor Exchange:

JV: “There’s a crypto asset, it’s called bitcoin and it goes the do doin d. Which one’s the best crypto asset?”
Drew Ski: “Well, bitcoin is the best crypto asset. Okay, what’s the second best? There is no second best.” (34:49)

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6. CZ Declares Supercycle, Shares Personal & Industry Reflections

• Headline: “The four year Bitcoin cycle is over” — Supercycle has begun (34:58)
• Institutional Inflow:
  • “We have seen more institutions come in than probably the previous cycles. That’s a fact.” (35:19)
• Integration with TradFi:
  • Crypto cards (crypto pays, merchants settle in fiat), stablecoins as transactional bridges.
• Macro Forces Dominate:
  • “He suggested that external forces, including government monetary policies, may now have equal or greater influence.” (36:32)
• Supercycle Claim:
  • “Bitcoin and crypto may be entering a super cycle.” (36:39)
• Personal Story:
  • CZ describes growing up on a farm in China, time in U.S. jail, presidential pardon by Trump, and current philanthropic work (Giggle Academy).
  • “Richest man to ever serve jail time. Richer than Pablo Escobar back in the day.” (39:17)
• Legacy Quote:

  CZ: “Bitcoin itself is great. It is the global reserve currency in crypto, that’s a fact. And probably soon in the world.” (40:18)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Pick up the sats or forever hold your peace. It’s a BOGO. Buy one, get one, take advantage of it.” – JV (03:54)
• “If history is to repeat, we can expect a 20 to 30% drawdown incoming very soon here.” – JV (08:42)
• “The cycle remains intact but is no longer dictated by Bitcoin’s program supply cuts. Instead, it’s increasingly shaped by U.S. election timelines.” – JV on Marcus Thielen/10x Research (12:41)
• “He just spoke at the Bitcoin conference in Maina in the Middle East Abu Dhabi and he says the four year cycle as we know it is no longer a thing.” – JV on CZ (13:28)
• “Bitcoin will dump below 70 GS under these macroeconomic conditions... Either way, price goes up, price goes down, just keep stacking.” — JV (10:30)
• “Third-largest bitcoin holder in the world publicly traded. Number one by far is going to be Saylor with over 660,000 Bitcoin.” – JV (29:11)
• “Bitcoin itself is great. It is the global reserve currency in crypto, that’s a fact. And probably soon in the world.” – CZ, quoted by JV (40:18)
• “There is no second best.” – Drew Ski (34:52)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment Description | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------|--------------| | Market Watch & Sats BOGO Commentary | 03:54–04:28 | | Chart Analysis & Price Downside Targets | 05:00–08:10 | | Japan Rate Hike Threat & Macro Discussion | 08:10–10:41 | | Four-Year Cycle: Old vs. New | 11:20–15:00 | | Middle East Institutional Flows | 15:30–23:30 | | 21 Capital’s IPO Slide | 23:45–29:10 | | Saylor’s Bitcoin Bank Proposal | 29:10–34:58 | | Feature: CZ on End of the Four-Year Cycle | 34:58–42:00 | | Notable Quotes/Legacy Reflections | 40:18–41:15 |

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Tone & Style

• Unfiltered, bullish, irreverent
• Quick-hitting data points (“Sat stackin’ is a way of life!”)
• Pro-Bitcoin, “no altcoins, just BTC”
• Regular references to pop culture (Bo Jackson, Tony Braxton), in-jokes with the “Fed Chair Nipinator,” and playful smack talk
• Uses both technical and macro lenses, but always boils it down to: “Just keep stacking.”

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Conclusion

This episode explores the evolution of Bitcoin’s market cycles amid historic institutional buying, changing macro forces, and influential voices like Saylor and CZ charting new territory. JV dives deep into the debate around the four-year cycle, institutional flows from the Gulf, and the increasing link between politics, liquidity, and price action.
CZ's proclamation of a "Supercycle" is the central highlight, with JV questioning if this is the new reality for Bitcoin — a relentless, cyclical march upward, or if volatility and periods of fear remain inevitable.
With bullish energy, market skepticism, and a hard dose of “stack more sats,” the episode arms listeners to interpret the headlines and navigate the next phase of the Bitcoin journey.

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For More

Catch the video version and breaking alerts at bitcoinnewsalerts.net
Participate in the live Q&A and stay sovereign, stay stacking, and hoddle on.

Transcript

[JV]

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[JV]

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He's talking to you Bridges.

[JV]

I'm not.

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[JV]

Right Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here.

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[JV]

Kinbang the holidays are better. AT T Mobile switch in just 15 minutes and get iPhone 17 on us with no trade in needed. And now T Mobile is available in US cellular stores with 24 month legal credits for well qualified customers plus tax and $35 vice connection charge credits and imbalance due to payout Earlier Cancel Finance Agreement 256 gates $830 eligible for it in a new line $100 plus a month plan with auto pay plus taxes and fees required. Check out 15 minutes or less per line. Visit t mobile.com welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. Happy sat stack and Sunday Bitcoin correcting a great BTFD opportunity In today's show we' Bitcoin could dump below 70,000 thank to a hawkish Japan according to the macro analysts. I'll be breaking it down for you. Also Bitcoin's four year cycle is intact but driven by politics and liquidity according to 10x research analysts. I'll be sharing this as well as why the oil rich investors are fueling Bitcoin's next liquidity wave. Also why 21's first day slide highlights investors caution towards the bitcoin back stocks. We'll also be discussing why the gigachad Michael Sailor wants nations to build bitcoin banks. Also Binance founder CZ says the v4 year Bitcoin cycle as we know it is over. Predicting a bitcoin super cycle. I'll be breaking this down for you whilst be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here. SAS stacking. Sunday. Today is December 14th, 2025. Bitcoin made a pullback. We're currently trading at 88, 600 at the time of the live stream. This is pod number 2194. I'm your host JV alongside the Fed chair Nipinator keeping them nipinating. Let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. Pulling up coin360. Yesterday everything in the green. Today everything back in the red. Womp, womp. You can see not really that big of losses, just very mediocre little correct correction. The only thing literally in the green today is tron hype and MNT checking out coinmarketcap.com the crypto market cap back on the decline down just above 1% on the day. Currently sitting at 3.04 trillion. The Bitcoin market cap as well has been correcting here. It's currently $1.77 trillion. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours we got MyX up 19%, sky up 11% and Mantle up less than 3%. Checking out the crypto green interior index Today it's a 21 extreme fear. Yesterday 23, last week at 20 and last month a 16 time chain. Calendar shows we're on block height 927,893. And you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1126 sats. So pick up the sats or forever hold your piece. It's a BOGO. Buy one, get one, take advantage of it. I mean, we're probably 35% ish from the top. Seize the moment and let's get it.

[Mrs. Claus / Ad Voice]

Trading's like a snowstorm the charts go up and down But I'm a bitcoin snowman Won't let it make me frown Santa's got his reindeer I've got my private keys Unwrap this digital future it's sweeter than cookies Ho ho hold all.

[JV]

Tight Let it grow, let it glow Stack it up don't let it go.

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Happy hot all day's here to stay.

[JV]

Happy hoddle days Bitty's here to stay along with the knit. All right, fam. Next we're gonna pull up some of the live charts. We'll do our live chart. Action Jackson Satisfaction, Bo Jackson, Tony Braxton. Dedicated to the baddies for today Sat Stack And Sunday here on the one hour chart we do have a red candle sitting at 97,000. But unfortunately we got four bear targets and I'll just read them out loud. 885, we have 867, we have 83 and we have one all the way down at 769 again all on the one hour chart. Checking out the four hour. You're going to notice a lot of action here as well. We've been trading sideways for quite a while. We do have one bull target sitting at 969, just shy of 97. And then there's three bear scenarios. 83, we have one at 80 and we have one all the way down at 76. Checking out the daily, daily chart shows us another red candle on the day. Yesterday was pretty break even day. Day before, which would have been Friday was a big red bear day. Thursday barely in the green. Wednesday was in the red. I mean it's been pretty rough recovery. We're like we hit 94, 95 range. We were trying to break out, recover, reclaim a hunted but we went the opposite way and the bears keep taking us down. There is a bear target on the daily, sitting all the way at 49 G's pretty wild. And checking out the weekly, you're going to notice here we are definitely in the red on the week and we're most likely going to close in the red within the next couple of hours probably during today's live stream. Last week we did get a green close, but it was so insignificant you can barely see it. It's like a blip on the chart. The week prior we got a green candle but then prior to that we had four mega bearish candles which drug us all the way down to 80 GS. And yeah, we relive in the 80s here. Famous. And checking out the monthly real quick. This is the month of December, pretty break even at the current moment. So it can play out either way. We have a couple of weeks left to put a bow on 20, 25 last month, very bearish. Obviously we had a massive red candle for the month of November and we also had a red candle for the month of October. Hence, you know, extended cycle theory which will be entertaining both sides of the coin. Some analysts are saying the four year cycle is intact. Other analysts are claiming, such as CZ more than an analyst. The man's richest. I'm so, I'm sorry, the world's richest man in crypto is saying the four year cycle as we know it is no longer a thing. Ultimately super cycle incoming extended cycle theory, which we'll be discussing as well. But next, let's do a little TA here. Headline reads Bitcoin will dump below 70,000 thanks to hawkish Japan. This is according to the Macro analysts. Bitcoin could face a continued correction towards the 70,000 level if the bank of Japan proceeds with expected interest rate hike December 19th. That's only five days out, so that's why a lot of people are bearish right now. So the bank of Japan hikes preceded 20 to 30% of the Bitcoin price corrections in the past. Every BoJ right hike since 2024 coincided with a Bitcoin price drawdown exceeding 20%. So in a post an analyst highlighted if Bitcoin declines roughly 23%, well, it did in March of 2024, 26 in July of the same year, and 31 this year, January. So if history is to repeat, we can expect a 20 to 30% drawdown incoming very soon here.

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[JV]

He also warned that similar downside risk could emerge again if the BOJ raises rates this Friday right around the corner. This thesis centered on Japan's role global liquidity. In the past, BOJ rate hikes strengthened the Japanese yen, making it more expensive to borrow and invest in riskier assets. This often forced traders to unwind the so called yen carry trades. And as liquidity tightened, Bitcoin came under pressure as investors cut leverage and reduce exposure during the risk off periods. Analysts here said Bitcoin will dump below 70 GS under these macroeconomic conditions. So let me know if you agree disagree. This would mean right after December 19th when they do the the cut. Let me know your thoughts now. Bitcoin bear Flag targets the same 70000 area as outlined in this chart. This is the daily also flashing technical warning signs with price consolidation inside a classic bear flag formation. Now the pattern formed after the bitcoin sharp breakdown from the 105 to 110 region in November followed by the narrow upward sloping consolidation channel. Such structures typically signal temporary pauses before trend continuation. A confirmed breakdown below the flag's lower trend line could trigger another leg lower however Nipinator Lick the log. So you know I mean it could go either way. The measure move pointing to the 7075 range. So ultimately let me know if you agree with some of these analysts. Do you think we're likely to go down on the back of Japan doing what they're about to do this Friday? Anticipating if history is to rhyme 20 to 30% correction, let me know either way price goes up down, just keep stacking. It's only going up 21,000. You mean 21 million limited supply. Everyone's buying them up. Stacking the biddies. Jn my thoughts is just buy more sats precisely the name of the game for those who are actually smart. You realize price equivalence goes up and down every day. And the bigger picture that you want to focus on, focus your third eye on is stack and sats which means accumulation. And over the years you continue to accumulate, your stack goes up and whenever the price catches up and rips to a new all time high, you reap the rewards. But next story fam Bitcoin's four year cycle is intact according to this analyst over at 10X Research. And later I'll be sharing the latest from CZ. He just spoke at the Bitcoin conference in Maina in the Middle East Abu Dhabi and he says the four year cycle as we know it is no longer a thing. So I'm going to give you both sides of the coin starting Here with the 10x research G Marcus Thelen Bitcoin's long debated four year cycle still playing out but the forces behind it have shifted away from having towards politics and liquidity. Speaking at the Wolf of all Streets pod Marcus Thielen argued that the idea of the four year cycle being broken misses the point. In his view, the cycle remains intact but is no longer dictated by Bitcoin's program supply cuts. Instead, it's increasingly shaped by the U S election timelines, which ironic enough, also happen to be every four years, right Central bank policy and the flow of capital into the risk assets. He pointed to the historical market peaks of 2013, 2017 and 2021. Ironically, it's always the year preceding the having, all of which occurred in the fourth quarter. Those peaks, he said, align more closely with the presidential election cycles and the broader political uncertainty than with the timing of the bitcoin havings, which have peter shifted throughout the calendar over the years. Now there's this uncertainty that the sitting President's party is going to lose a lot of seats. I think that's also the odds now that Trump would lose or the Republicans would lose a lot of the seats in the House and therefore maybe he's not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore. And here's a X post that says the four year cycle is still intact but is driven by the midterm elections, not the having. Let me know if you agree or Disagree with the 10x research analyst. The comments came as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum following the Fed's latest rate cut, where J Pal just cut the interest rates a quarter percentage point. And while the rate cuts have historically supported the risk assets, Marcus Steen noted that the current environment is different. Institutional investors, now the dominant force in crypto markets, are more cautious, especially as the policy signal from the Fed remain mixed and liquidity conditions tighten. That's why we need to just listen to the Nipinator, the official Fed chair, because he's not given mixed signals. The only signal he gives is bullish for the btc, you know, and that's how it should be. Furthermore, capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared with last year, reducing the upside pressure needed to sustain a strong breakout. Without a clear pickup in liquidity, he expects Bitcoin to remain in consolidation phase rather than enter a new parabolic rally. The shift also has implications for how investors think about the timing. Rather than anchoring expectations to the having, he said market participants should watch political catalysts such as the US elections, fiscal policy debates and shift in monetary conditions. Now Arthur Hayes says the crypto cycle is dead and he's another bitcoin billionaire. Just FYI, in October, Arthur Hayes just blaze argued that the four year cycle for the crypto is not over or I'm sorry, is over meaning as we know it, but not because of the fading institutional interest or changes to the bitcoin having cycle, he said. Traders relying on historical timing models to call the end of the current bull market are likely to be wrong as those patterns no longer reflect how the markets move. According to Arthur Hayes Blaze bitcoin cycles have also been driven by the global liquidity, not by arbitrary four year timelines. Past bull markets ended with monetary conditions tightened, particularly when the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan liquidity slowed. The having, he said, has been overstated as a casual factor rather than a coincidental one. And there you go. Yo, there's the latest on that. Let me know who you agree most likely with. I Definitely agree with Mr. Arthur Hayes. Just Blaze Next story Baby baby. Here's why the oil rich investors are fueling the Bitcoin next liquidity wave. That's right, let's break her down. Since Bitcoin began its first sustained boom in 2013, many of the major surges have been driven by the highly leveraged retail activity and trading on the less regulated platforms. After the first US Bitcoin ETF, the Pro Shares Bitcoin Strategy ETF began trading October 19, 2021, Bitcoin attracted greater attention from an institutional investor standpoint. In 2025, the new source of capital began to play the larger role and shaping the Bitcoin market structure. The oil link funds from the Gulf region. This capital includes sovereign wealth funds, state affiliated investment firms, family offices, private banking networks that serve them. These capital pools are entering the market through regulated channels, particularly the spot Bitcoin ETFs. These inflows could drive the next wave of liquidity. So rather than simply causing the temporary price increases they may support the narrower bid ask spreads, greater market depth and the ability to execute the larger trades with less price impact. Now who's these oil linked investors and why they matter for market liquidity? Let's entertain this here. The term oil rich investors refers to a network of capital managers whose resources are tied directly or indirectly to the hydrocarbon revenues. For example, sovereign wealth funds, government related entities in the Gulf which oversee large asset bases, often shape regional investment trends. Also ultra high net worth individuals and family offices which can move more quickly than sovereign funds and typically channel demand through the private banks and wealthy advisors. Also the international hedge funds and asset managers establishing operations in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, drawn in part by proximity to the regional capital. So for liquidity, the key factor is not only the size of these allocations, but how they are deployed.

[Mrs. Claus / Ad Voice]

Guys, thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree.

[Drew Ski / Elf]

Zoe. This thing weighs a ton. Drew Ski, lift with your legs man.

[JV]

Santa, did you get my letter?

[Drew Ski / Elf]

He's talking to you Bridges.

[JV]

I'm not.

[Mrs. Claus / Ad Voice]

Of course he did.

[JV]

Right Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here.

[Drew Ski / Elf]

He handles the nice list. An elf? I'm six' three what everyone wants is iPhone 17 and at T Mobile you can get it on them. That center stage front camera is amazing for group selfies, right Mrs. Claus?

[Mrs. Claus / Ad Voice]

I'm Mrs. Claus much younger sister and AT T Mobile there's no trade in needed when you switch so you can.

[Drew Ski / Elf]

Keep your old phone or give it as a gift.

[Mrs. Claus / Ad Voice]

And the best part? Part, you can make the switch to T Mobile from your phone in just 15 minutes.

[Drew Ski / Elf]

Nice. My side of the tree is slipping.

[JV]

Kimber the holidays are better. AT T Mobile switch in just 15 minutes and get iPhone 17 on us with no trade in needed. And now T Mobile is available in US cellular stores with 24 monthly bill credits for well qualified customers plus tax and $35 vice connection charge credit sentinel balance due if you pay off earlier Cancel Finance Agreement 256 gigs $830 eligible for in a new line 100 plus a month plan with auto paperless taxes fees required. Check out 15 minutes or less per line.

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[JV]

Many of these positions are routed through vehicles and platforms designed for institutional participation, which can support a more robust market structure. Now what the next liquidity wave actually means. Well, here's what it's typically characterized by Larger, more consistent daily flows into the regulated products such as the ETF's deeper order books, narrower spreads into the spot markets increase primary market ETF activity Stronger, more resilient derivative markets Now Abu Dhabi Link Conservative capital inflows spot Bitcoin ETFs have become straightforward route for this type of capital. The structure and risk profile for the crypto ETF such as Black Rock's Eye bit differ traditionally from the registered funds. For investors focused on governance and compliance, these distinctions can matter. But why Abu Dhabi's oil and capital is interested in bitcoin? I mean it's a no brainer. I mean why wouldn't they be interested? Diversification, long term portfolio strategy, generational shift in private wealth and building the supporting infrastructure. Geography matters. The UAE's role as a regulated hub liquidity tends to concentrate when regulation, licensing and institutional counterparties are reliable. The UAE has built multi layer framework combining federal oversight with specialized financial free zones such as the Abu Dhabi Global market. Now how oil linked capital can strengthen Bitcoin's liquidity Inflows from sovereign wealth funds tied to the oil economy can introduce an additional layer of the institutional demand into the market which may support liquidity and market depth. The ETF flywheel large over the counter trades and prime brokerage as well as regulated derivatives and clearing institutional exits and the limits of liquidity Institutional participation does not eliminate the downside risk. Bitcoin remains volatile and even widely used products can see the sharp outflows. And a great example of that is what we have witnessed with the the ETFs especially Black Rock being the largest one amongst, you know, all the others there. But there you have it, yo. Yeah, I mean lots of money flooding into Bitcoin and we're just getting started. The market cap, it's less than 2 trillion right now. Total crypto market cap is just above 3 trillion. So we have a long ways to go to capture a lot of the total addressable market and think about all the sovereign wealth funds and how much money is floating around there. Or just the real estate market for example, or gold which recently hit a 30 trillion market cap, you know. So if Bitcoin were to overtake gold and all that money flows into Bitcoin like a black hole like Max Geiser has predicted, that's an easy 15 to 20x from here. And you do the math, where would the price go? Millions of dollars per coin. The doing next headline 21's first day slide highlights investor caution towards the Bitcoin back stocks. That's right. So the public debut at 21 Capital was last week. A closely watched bitcoin focused company on the New York Stock Exchange was met with cautious investor sentiment. Trading under the Ticker x x 21 in Roman numerals xx 1, the firm's shares fell by nearly 20% on the first day. Now 21 Capital is an institutional backed Bitcoin native public company with the stated ambition of becoming the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin. Watch out, Michael Sailor. The firm went public via a special purpose acquisition company transaction.

[Drew Ski / Elf]

What?

[JV]

Canter Equity, which is ultimately Canter F Geral and began trading under the ticker x x 1 or should I be saying XXI because it's roman numerals here? I'm just going to say 21. At launch, the company reported the treasury of over 43, 500. I think that already makes them like the third largest holder of bitcoin and they just went public. That's the crazy part. But yeah, they have 43500 bitties, valid at just shy of 4 billion, placing it amongst the largest corporate bitcoin holders. And they're also partnered with the likes of Tether. I mean Cantor Fitzgerald and Tether collectively own infinite money. I mean I'm just saying they're massive. The firm was built with a clear focus, a corporate structure that places Bitcoin at the center of the strategy. Its founders and backers position it more of a Treasury vehicle. Jack, MERS and all my bitcoin ballers. Yeah, Jack founded Strike Said 21's aim is to build corporate infrastructure for Bitcoin align financial products. Let me know if you saw him on the news when they just went public on the stock exchange there. This model places 21 alongside other digital asset treasury companies, but with key differences. Its backers include Cantor Fitzgerald, a Federal Reserve primary dealer, again a Fed primary dealer Tether, the issuer of USDT and the major holder of U S Treasuries, Bitfinex and Softbank. All these institutions relationships. Position 21 is one of the most heavily backed bitcoin native companies to list publicly. The company arrived amid a broader wave of publicly traded firms pursuing bitcoin centric strategies inspired in part by the expansion of the model used by strategy. That's right, the sailor put 21 stated intention is not simply to replicate that approach, but to pursue revenue driven growth while maintaining a large bitcoin reserve. And just look at that smile on Mer's face says it all. Given the scale of his treasury and the profile of its backers, many market participants expected strong attention around 21 launch. Yet its first day of trading December 9th delivered a different outcome. The stock fell sharply despite the company's large bitcoin holdings and high profile institutional support. When Cantor Equity Partners SPAC shared converted in 21, the new stock opened at $10.74 followed by their prior close of $14, $0.27 hours trading showed only a modest rebound. But the close of its first day of trading the shares were down approximately 20% being at $11.96. This performance underscored a broader trend in which newly listed crypto related firms often trade below their pre merger benchmarks. The move also left the new public equity trading at a discount relative to the underlying crypto holdings, indicating that valuation dynamics for this type of stock may be shifting. And you can see the stock price here on December 10th 4 days ago when they went live. So yeah, boom went straight down. Investor caution and 21's NYSE slide the sharp decline of 21 Capital stock was not unique to the company. It reflected the convergence of the three factors in late 2025 including the erosion of the multiple to net asset value premium, continued volatility in the crypto markets, and the weaker sentiment towards the Spock driven public debuts. So yeah, I mean market shift demand for proven business models. Another reason for investor caution maybe the lack of the clear proven revenue generating operating model at the time of the debut. Personally, I think it's like when bitcoin is going up and doing its thing, these companies are going to shine. And when we're having massive corrections or sell offs and there's a lot of uncertainty and things of this nature, naturally their stocks aren't going to do so.

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[JV]

Bitcoin holding companies right? And again already I believe the third largest bitcoin holder in the world publicly traded. I know it's I believe number one by far is going to be Sailor with over 660,000 Bitcoin. Also, FYI Sailor did post the infamous Sailor Tracker today, which means tomorrow he will announce another acquisition over the week. And last week he announced roughly a billion over 10,000 bitcoin purchase. And I think, I believe the second largest holder right now is Mara, the bitcoin mining company. And then number three should be 21. We're going to talk Michael Sailor and then CZ. So this headline here why Michael Sailor wants nations to build Bitcoin banks. That's right. Sailor's pitch to integrate Bitcoin reserves into the regulated banking. So Sailor's proposal comes as strategy continues to expand his bitcoin holdings, including a recent purchase which was announced last week of 10,600 bitcoin for almost a billion dollars. And he did post another Sailor tracker today which is an omen. Tomorrow will be another big announcement, probably be another billion dollar buy. We shall see. But at this current moment he holds his firm 66624 BTC a position reinforcing Sailor's view that digital assets can play a sustained role in financial ecosystem. So let's be more direct Bitcoin the doing. Sailor's view draws on strategies experience with Bitcoin link financial tools. Earlier this year the company introduced strc, a prefer share design with features that resemble the money market instruments with a variable dividend rate. STRC is intended to maintain a stable price near its par value. Now STRC has reached a market cap of almost 3 billion. While it reflects elements of Sailor's vision, it still operates within normal market constraints including changes in liquidities and shifts in investor sentiment. And here is Sailor on stage recently in Abu Dhabi at the Bitcoin MENA event. He was one of the key speakers. Here's Sailor's framework the structured Bitcoin back digital banking model. Sailor described an 80 allocation, a tokenized credit and 20 to the fiat. He also cited an additional 10 reserve buffer intended to support liquidity and stability, though the exact structure would depend on the regulators defining reserves and safeguards. For the crypto component, he's recommending a 5 to 1 over collateralization ratio, meaning collateral would far exceed the underlying credit obligations. And as Sailor envisions it, these structures could function as digital banking products that offer regulated exposure to new forms of collateral. He argues that countries adopting such frameworks could attract international savers seeking diversified regulated options. And in his presentation he frames the model as a potential alternative for the policy makers. Next up, while the countries may need to explore alternatives persistently low returns on traditional deposits in the key markets, Saylor observed that deposit interest rates in regions such as Japan, parts of Europe and Switzerland are close to zero. So in A higher rate environment such as the US Depositors weigh bank rates against alternatives such as money market funds. He argues that this dynamic has led some investors to seek the higher yields through options such as corporate bonds. And as a result Sailors suggest the governments may want to access or yeah, assess whether digital asset back models could broaden the range of secure regulated saving choices. You know, also the potential implications of Sailors proposals for the financial landscape it be innovation and financial product design, strategic positioning and digital finance. Evolution of banking infrastructure. Now, skepticism and considerations around Sailor's proposal. Sailor's proposal sparking debate across financial circles. Several factors related to bitcoin banks would need to be considered and I've heard it before, that Sailor's ultimate goal is to create the world's largest bitcoin bank. And that could be potentially what strategy formerly known as micro strategy metamorphs into like caterpillar metamorphosis into the butterfly we shall soon see. But liquidity and market stress risks are very real. Naturally, regulatory operational challenges are always there. There's always the fudsters. Also there's supposed to be some big meeting in about a month from now, mid January where Sailor, or I should say the board for like the S and P inclusion decides if they could include Sailor or not because they wanted to change the rules where if you're holding more than 50% of your capital in bitcoin, you're to be excluded, which would potentially trigger him to have to offload some of his, you know, bitcoin in his bitcoin treasury. However, he more recently also, I'm just thinking out loud here, he just recently created a bitcoin war chest or I should say, I apologize. Well, he does have a bitcoin war chest, but he just created a cash fiat war chest of 1.44 billion specifically put aside so he could take care of the investors so he can avoid by any means necessary, shout out Malcolm X, rest in peace, not have to sell any bitcoin. And he says he has enough reserves there in that stash to pay investor dividends over the course of the next 18 months to two years. So you know, fudsters are saying sailors going to be forced to liquidate. Sailors saying fuck you, pay me like a young Joe Pesci. You know, there is no second best. There's a crypto asset, it's called bitcoin and it goes the do doin d. Which one's the best crypto asset?

[Drew Ski / Elf]

Well, bitcoin is the best crypto asset. Okay, what's the second best? There is no Second best.

[JV]

I'm not saying I'm number one. I'm sorry I lied.

[Drew Ski / Elf]

I'm number one. Two, three, four and five.

[JV]

Now for our feature story of the day. The Binance founder CZ says the four year Bitcoin cycle is over. Predicts a potential bitty super cycle. And that's the man of the hour right here. He just spoke at the Fireside Chat at the Bitcoin Mana event over in Abu Dhabi and big things happening. And Sailor was at this event as well. So yeah, CZ Shangping Zhao offered a pretty expansive view at a Bitcoin evolving role in global finance. While he touched on personal experiences, from his legal challenges of the US to his pardon from the President, his remarks consistently return to the trajectory and potential of the btc. And FYI, CZ is the richest man in crypto. Let that sink in for a moment. I know at one point his net worth was like estimated to be like 80 billion. It could be more or less at this current stage, but he's definitely a juggernaut to say the least. Now Bitcoin's institutional adoption from the Bitcoin ETFs to the corporate strategic reserves, Wall street and large financial institutions are participating in the crypto ecosystem. Here's what he shared on stage. We we have seen more institutions come in than probably the previous cycles. That's a fact. This bridging between the grassroots movements and institutional finance, he argued, positions Bitcoin for the broader integration into the global financial system. The conversation highlighted the inherent unpredictability of the bitty adoption path. CZ sees potential for growth through integration with traditional payment infrastructure. Now tools like crypto cards, where users pay in crypto but merchants received the fiat, allow demand to grow on the user side and lay the groundwork for more widespread adoption. Also stable coins, he noted, will play a key role in facilitating transactions without undermining the Bitcoin investment appeal. Now here's CZ's take on the Bitcoin four year cycle. Here we go. CZ offered perspective on how the macroeconomic conditions and policy shifts can influence the Bitcoin trajectory. And while the four year cycle has long guided expectations for the bull and the bear, he suggested external forces, including government monetary policies, may now have equal or greater influence. CZ even said that bitcoin and crypto may be entering a super cycle. Now that's a trigger word which gets Nipinator and JV very excited because in my mind a super cycle is nothing less than a 10x return. And if we 10x from where we're at, we'll be above 800,000 like that, you know. And who's to tell? We can go to 2.2 million one of Max Geyser's predictions, but anyways, he pointed to potential US rate cuts quantitative easing as the factors driving liquidity into the crypto market, suggesting the next cycle diverging from historical patterns. I think that's most likely going to happen as well. It just makes the most sense in my limited mind. But you guys let me know if you agree disagree with CZ and Arthur Hayes. Motherfucking Blaze now. Institutions or institutionalization?

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[Drew Ski / Elf]

Zoe. This thing weighs a ton. Drew Ski, lift with your legs man.

[JV]

Santa.

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[Drew Ski / Elf]

He's talking to you britches.

[JV]

I'm not.

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[JV]

Right Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here.

[Drew Ski / Elf]

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[JV]

Included with Prime A Bitty, however, does not replace the grassroots origins of the network. CZ emphasized the retail hodlers remain the majority and that the international nature of the biddy is integral to the identity now. CZ's personal journey throughout the discussion, CZ reflected on his personal journey from growing up on a farm in China to serving jail time. In fact he is the richest man to ever serve jail time. That's right. Richer than Pablo Escobar back in the day now, all while being intertwined closely with bitcoin's evolution. He shared his experiences facing U. S regulatory scrutiny including potential imprisonment, his eventual pardon by president Trump. The pardon drew criticism from the dems like everyone's least Favorite to Senator Ms. Pocahontas Warren who called it corruption while the Trump administration framed it as correcting and overreach by the Biden administration. I do also agree it was an overreach and of course Trump and CZ are doing some business together and all that. But regardless, I've always perceived CZ as one of the good guys. I don't view him as fucking bankman freed who scammed all his investors and straight up lied and basically lost all the money. CZ seems like a stand up guy in my humble opinion, you know, but let me know your thoughts. And even as he stepped back from day to day operations of Binance, CZ remain engaged and advanced in the industry. He focused on advising governments on how to regulate the crypto. And beyond the regulation, CZ turned attention to the education and innovation. He found Giggle Academy, a free gamified digital education platform now reaching approximately 90000 children, emphasized size and accessibility and positive societal impact. Now CZ's reflections on legacy and impact return repeatedly to the bitty. While he admires other industry figures like Mr. Sailor for their single minded focus on Bitcoin, CZ sees his own role as complimentary. Attempting to foster innovation across multiple chains while championing bitcoin's primacy. Bitcoin itself is great. It is the global reserve currency and crypto probably soon in the world. I'm going to read that again. Bitcoin itself is great. It is the global reserve currency in crypto, that's a fact. And probably soon in the world. And by that time, who knows, maybe we'll have a dollar per sat which would put pre little bitty at 100 million per coin. Now in closing, CZ reiterated his goal remains clear. Driving adoption and awareness of crypto worldwide, whether through the institutional engagement policy, advising or fostering innovation. He positions himself as a conduit between the grassroots and the broader financial ecosystem. And if you don't know now you know. There's the latest from czping Zhao. Let me know if you agree that the four year cycle is dead like the motherfucking Fed and we'll go from there. And welcome everyone to the Q and A segment of the live stream. And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the and a Q Q and A and I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.

[Drew Ski / Elf]

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