2196: Grayscale: Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Is Ending — New ATH in 2026

Summary

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Bitcoin News Alerts | Episode 2196: Grayscale – Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Is Ending—New ATH in 2026

Date: December 16, 2025
Host: JV
Main Story: Grayscale’s bold prediction that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over, and a new all-time high (ATH) is coming in 2026.

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Overview:

This episode delves into Grayscale’s strategy-shifting forecast for Bitcoin, analysis of current price action, and hot topics like Gemini’s new prediction markets, stablecoin innovation from Japan, and legal headlines affecting crypto culture. JV, with his signature blend of technical acumen and raw commentary, walks listeners through the latest charts, on-chain data, regulatory insights, and industry trends—sprinkled with strong opinions, humor, and questions for the audience.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Market Watch & Price Action

• Bitcoin’s Positioning (01:22–04:30)
  • BTC up 1.6% on the day, trading at $87,700 during the livestream.
  • Recent all-time high (“firmament”) hit October 6th at $126.3K, now off ~40% from that peak, reflecting significant market correction.
  • Other notable coins: ETH down 1.1%, altcoins like BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, and Litecoin in the green.
  • Total crypto market cap: $2.96 trillion—described as “mind-bogglingly small compared to the global addressable market.”
  • Market sentiment remains deep in extreme fear: Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 11 (last month’s low was 10).
  • “It shows you how early we truly are in crypto and the bitcoin market cap only $1.7 trillion.” (JV, 02:57)

Technical Analysis Roundup

• Chart Review & Bearish Scenarios (04:30–08:30)
  • BTC still wrestling with a multi-week correction, regaining only some of last week’s losses after multiple red daily candles.
  • Potential dips reviewed: downside targets at $83K, $80K, and as low as $79.9K.
  • Mentions the role of macro news out of Japan (interest rates, end of the carry trade) as a volatility driver.
  • “We've been definitely correcting since hitting that all time high... Deja vu. Stuck in the 80s.” (JV, 06:14)
  • Cites Peter Brandt’s ultra-bearish BTC target of $25,000: “That’s now officially the lowest bear target I’ve heard. But I’d expect nothing less from the perma bear Peter Brandt the Old Man Analyst.” (08:06)

On-Chain Activity: The “Shark Stack”

• Sharks Accumulating Fastest Since 2012 (08:30–09:11)
  • “Bitcoin sharks” (holders of 100–1,000 BTC) increased collective holdings by 54,000 BTC in a week—fastest rate since 2012.
  • Despite BTC being down 30%, strong bullish conviction signaled by institutional buyers and HNW individuals.
  • “A similar pattern played out also in 2011... Aggressive accumulation by the mid sized HODLers followed Bitcoin’s 350% rise... A repetition of this historical fractal would favor further upside.” (JV, 07:53)
  • Long-term holders (whales, 10k+ BTC) driving recent sell-offs, yet historically, such phases have preceded major rallies.
  • Charles Edwards (Capriole Investments) quoted:
    “While the institutional buying on Coinbase reached unprecedented levels, it is being absorbed by the OG whales and the long term HODLer selling at rates not seen in years.” (08:03)

Long-Term Holders & Supply Dynamics

• HODLer Capitulation – Bullish or Bearish? (10:14–13:00)
  • Long-term HODLers (155+ days) reduced their share of circulating supply to 72% (down from 76% in July).
  • Historic lows like this have marked buying opportunities and preceded recoveries.
  • “Whales sold almost $3 billion worth of Bitcoin over the last 30 days, keeping the downside pressure firmly in place.” (12:17)
  • Capitulatory moves from major investors, including Robert Kiyosaki (“Rich Dad”), selling part of their BTC in anticipation of a deeper crash.
  • Key levels: critical supports at $83,800, $81,200, and a bear flag breakdown hinting at possible targets as low as $68,500.

Industry Trends: Prediction Markets Surge

• Gemini Prediction Markets Launched Nationwide (14:40–17:00)
  • Gemini (Winklevoss twins) launches regulated, in-house prediction markets across all 50 US states.
  • Part of the wider industry push for “super app” status—offering crypto trading, staking, tokenized stocks, and now betting on real-world outcomes.
  • “Now it’s so much a part of our culture it’s not even funny. Like all the sports betting things and now betting markets—degen as it gets.” (15:45)
  • JV’s stance: strongly critical of gambling’s normalization and its impact on youth (“I’m not into it personally... It’s not good for our youth who are being programmed into gambling through video games at a young age.” 16:51)

Legal Drama: Samurai Wallet and Trump’s Possible Pardon

• Trump and the Samurai Wallet Case (17:00–21:00)
  • Trump signals he’ll look into pardoning Keon Rodriguez, recently convicted for his role in Samurai Wallet (BTC mixing protocol).
  • Rodriguez and co-founder William Longergan Hill serving 5 and 4 years respectively, facing harsh sentencing for operating “an illegal transmitter.”
  • “If it was the Biden administration still in power, they would have got life in prison, right? Just like Ross (Ulbricht).” (17:53)
  • Rodriguez’s perspective: “When [Trump] sees the facts laid out in the table, he’ll know exactly what’s going on.” (20:40)
  • JV’s take: Punishing developers for “writing code” is tantamount to blaming Mark Zuckerberg for Facebook being misused. Supports the logic of a pardon (“I think Trump would do that for the community because what does it cost Trump? Nothing, right?” 21:16)

Stablecoin & International Innovation: Focus on Japan

• SBI & Star Tail’s Regulated Yen Stablecoin (22:00–25:00)
  • SBI Holdings partners with Star Tail to launch a fully regulated JPY stablecoin, set for Q2 2026.
  • “By circulating it both domestically and globally, we aim to dramatically accelerate the movement towards digital financial services that are fully integrated with traditional finance.” (JV quoting SBI, 23:42)
  • Japan is positioning itself as a stablecoin epicenter with a multi-currency strategy, including USDC and Ripple’s RLUSD.

The Big Theme: Grayscale Declares the End of the 4-Year Cycle

• Grayscale’s 2026 Bitcoin Outlook (25:15–29:10)
  • Grayscale’s report predicts Bitcoin will reach a new ATH within the first half of 2026.
  • Key argument: The classic 4-year cycle (driven by halvings, two years bull, two years bear) is now defunct—bull markets will be driven by broader macro/institutional factors and regulatory clarity.
  • “We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called four-year cycle... bitcoin price will likely reach a new all time high within the first half of the year in our view.” (Grayscale analysts, quoted at 25:50)
  • US policy pivot seen as key:
    • “In 2025, Congress passed the Genius Act on stablecoins and regulators shifted their approach towards crypto... In 2026, Grayscale expects Congress to pass bipartisan crypto market structure legislation.” (27:55)
  • Grayscale’s top 10 investment themes for 2026:
    • Stablecoin market growth, asset tokenization “hitting an inflection point,” major DeFi growth, and new use-cases for stablecoins in payments/collateral.
    • What’s not a big deal (yet): Quantum computing and digital asset treasuries.
  • JV’s take: “I've been saying for months that I think the four year cycle is a thing of the past. Why? 95 has been mine now. Wall Street, ETFs, countries, nation states, sovereign wealth courts, Bitcoin treasuries, etc.” (29:13)

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the Small Size of Crypto Markets:
  “It shows you how early we truly are in crypto and the bitcoin market cap only $1.7 trillion.” — JV, 02:57

• On the Accumulation by Sharks:
  “A similar pattern played out also in 2011... Aggressive accumulation by the mid sized HODLers followed Bitcoin’s 350% rise...” — JV, 07:53

• On Long-Term Holder Capitulation:
  “Whales sold almost $3 billion worth of Bitcoin over the last 30 days, keeping the downside pressure firmly in place.” — JV, 12:17

• On Betting Markets Culture:
  “I remember the good old days when gambling was illegal and you had to go to like Vegas or Atlantic City. Now it’s so much a part of our culture it’s not even funny.” — JV, 15:45

• On the Ethics of Crypto Developer Prosecutions:
  “They're ultimately developers who wrote code and now they're going to be in prison because there may have been bad actors using their services. That’s like arresting Mark Zuckerberg or Elon Musk...” — JV, 17:53

• Grayscale’s Statement on the 4-Year Cycle:
  “We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called four-year cycle.” — Grayscale analysts, quoted by JV, 25:50

• On the Industry’s Macro Shift:
  “I've been saying for months that I think the four year cycle is a thing of the past. Why? 95 has been mine now. Wall Street, ETFs, countries, nation states, sovereign wealth courts, Bitcoin treasuries, etc.” — JV, 29:13

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Important Timestamps

• Market Analysis and TA: 01:22–08:30
• On-chain Insights – Shark and Whale Activity: 08:30–10:14, 10:14–13:00
• Gemini Prediction Markets: 14:40–17:00
• Samurai Wallet & Trump’s Potential Pardon: 17:00–21:00
• Japan’s Stablecoin Push: 22:00–25:00
• Grayscale’s 2026 Predictions and End of 4-Year Cycle: 25:15–29:10

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Tone and Flow

JV delivers the show with unfiltered candor (“raw, unfiltered, uncensored” as always), layering market analysis with strong personal viewpoints, industry skepticism, and community-focused commentary. He encourages engagement (“Let me know if you agree or disagree”), frequently challenges mainstream narratives (especially around institutional adoption and regulatory crackdowns), and celebrates Bitcoin maximalism—no altcoin shilling.

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Summary Takeaways

• Bitcoin has seen significant correction but remains early in its adoption curve; macro sentiment is fearful.
• Grayscale claims that BTC’s four-year halving cycle has ended—expect “institutional era” and new ATH by mid-2026.
• On-chain trends reveal sharks stacking fast, even as whales and long-term holders distribute supply.
• Legal/regulatory action remains critical, with shifting US policy, high-profile cases, and big names like Trump involved.
• Industry convergence (Gemini, stablecoins, DeFi) is accelerating crypto’s integration into mainstream markets.
• Host encourages caution amidst hype (especially on betting/gambling) and calls for the community to stay sovereign and keep stacking sats.

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For further detail, market charts, and to participate in live chat, visit bitcoinnewsalerts.net.

Transcript

[JV]

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Zoe, this thing weighs a ton. Live with your legs man.

[JV]

Santa. Santa, did you get my letter?

[Drew Ski]

He's talking to you, Bridget.

[JV]

I'm not.

[Mrs. Claus]

Of course he did.

[Drew Ski]

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[JV]

Visit t mobile.com welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. Bitcoin back in the green looking to reclaim 88,000 at the time of the live I'll be breaking down the latest TA also the Bitcoin shark stack at the fastest PA in 13 years even with Bitcoin down 30%. We'll also be discussing bitcoin long term Hodler supply hits eight month lows. Is this bullish or bearish? Of course I'll be giving you the latest analysis. Also the Winklevoss lead Gemini rolls out prediction markets in 50 US states. So yeah, betting markets are taking over the world it seems as the degeneracy of gambling continues in the mainstream. Also we'll be discussing Trump to look under into the recently convicted samurai wallet co founder ultimately entertaining a pardon as a lot of people are suggesting it. Also Japan's SBI and Star Tail plan regulated Yen stablecoin in 2024 currently under a new framework. Also Bitcoin hit a new all time high within the next six months according to Grayscale. They also say the four year cycle as we know it has ended. I'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is Pot episode 2196. I'm your host JV alongside my co host the Fed chair nipinator. Today is 12-16-2025 and we did get a nice little green bounce on the day. We're up 15 hundo the currently trading at 87,700 at the time of the live stream. Let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. Pulling up coin360 you can see Bitcoin up 1.6% now on the day Ether is down 1.1%, went back under 3000bnb XRP, Salana, Tron and Litecoin all pump in and in the green. Checking out coinmarketcap.com Total crypto market cap today is on the decline down 3% currently 2.96 trillion which again is mindboggling to me. How small of a overall market cap considering how much money is in the total addressable market they say upwards of 900 trillion. It shows you how early we truly are in crypto and the bitcoin market cap only $1.7 trillion. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. Leading the pack today. MyX up 9%, XDC up 6% and Tun Coin up 6% on the day. Checking out Crypto Greed and fear index. Last month we bottomed out at a 10. Today we're not much higher. We're still in extreme fear at an 11 so we could very much drop down even lower. Checking out the time chain calendar today is block height 928149 and you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1139 sats. And today's episode is brought to you by 02taxbitcoin.com learn how to use OPM other people's money to buy crypto including Bitcoin at zero percent interest and pay zero taxes on your gains. Again the website is zero tax bitcoin.com and let's get these bitties shall we? Let's do some live chart action. Jackson Satisfaction Bo Jackson. You know the Brosis for today. You can see on the one hour chart we do have some bare scenarios in play. One is all the way down to 83. We have one at 80 and we have one all the way down to 799. Let me know if you think 80,000 will likely hold up or if we'll break even lower this week with all the news supposed to be coming out of Japan here later in the week regarding the interest rates and the end carry trade. Checking out the four hour. Anything bullish? No bull targets but we do have an ascending channel. We do have three bear scenarios on the four hour. Very similar to the one hour chart. Checking out the daily you're going to see today. We're in the green. We've almost regained most of the losses from yesterday, but unfortunately we had like four consecutive red candles so we have a lot more to recapture. We did bounce to like 95 last week in the ballpark in 94.95. Unfortunately the Bears took us back down and here we are again. Deja vu. Stuck in the 80s. Checking out the weekly. We do get a weekly close. It's actually only the beginning of the week now and we're off on the wrong foot because it's already in the red unfortunately. And last week we closed in the red and we have been definitely correcting since hitting that all time high which was all the way back on October 6th. We hit the 126three current firmament and we've corrected almost 40% since there. Checking out the monthly again very lackluster. Q4. October was disappointing in the red. November, one of the worst monthly candle closes in the past seven years for the month of November, which is historically very bullish. And here we are in December and currently it is a decent bear tis what it is. And pulling up our next story here. Bitcoin shark stack the fastest in 13 years. With Bitcoin down 30% they're still stacking. So let's break this down. The bitcoin sharks are entities huddle in between 100 and 1000 of the BTC. They increase their collective holdings by roughly 3 1/2 million. Bitcoin. Well I guess I should be more precise. 3.575 million Bitcoin from 3.521 million over the past seven days. Absorbing 54,000 BTC from the smaller holders. We'll call those smaller holders the Shrimps. Why not? The move marked the fastest pace of shark accumulation since 2012. That was the year of the first bitty having suggesting strong bullish conviction amongst the higher net worth individuals and institutional players. Despite the bitty 30 drawdown. Now back in 2012, a comparable surge of the bitcoin accumulation preceded one of the earlier major rallies as you can see in this chart when bitcoin climbed above a hundred dollars from the $10 within a year marking a 900% increase. I mean those were the days, right? A similar pattern played out also in 2011 when the aggressive accumulation by the mid sized hodlers follow Bitcoin's 350 rise to over $14 down from below 3 bucks. A repetition of this historical fractal fractal would favor further upside Bitcoin faces sell pressure from the long term huddlers Whales with holdings of over 10,000 bitties have emerged as the major driver behind the sell off over the past couple of months. Highlighting the buying power of the sharks was insufficient as you can see here in the chart. Also you can see the supply held by the entities with a balance of 100,000 of the bitties or more that in balance align with capriole investments assessment of the record institutional buying which has been met with equally historic long term Hudler distribution. Quoting Charles Edwards here. While the institutional buying on Coinbase reached unprecedented levels, it is being absorbed by the OG whales and and the long term Hodler selling at rates not seen in years. And here's a chart showing you the bitcoin prices in comparison to the bitty now or the dollar. I should say the price appreciation may be capped until the heavy distribution from the older coins subsides. Adding to the downside outlook, we had Peter Brandt suggesting Bitcoin could reach a low of 25,000. That's now officially the lowest bear target I have heard. But I'd expect nothing less from the perma bear. Peter Brandt the Old Man Analysts which tis what it is. Next up let's dive a little deeper. Bitcoin long term Hodler supply hits an eight month low Is this bullish or bearish? I guess. Let's break her down.

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[JV]

Have been holding for at least 155 days they reduced their Bitcoin holdings more recently this was reducing the share of circulating supply of the Bitcoin held by the long term HODL to 72%, a level last seen back in April. The April figures came as Bitcoin dropped from his Jan 20th all time high 109 bottoming at 74. Long term huddlers took advantage of the low price and increased their supply 76% back in July resulting in a 65 rally of the Bitcoin price to the new record high which is actually126.3 via Coinbase. If a similar scenario unfolds, the long term huddlers could see the bitty price dropped to 84, 000 as an opportunity to add to their holdings, sparking a recovery to a new all time high over the next few months. And we're precisely in the mid-80s right now trying to approach the 90G level. Zooming out Long term huddler supply typically sees sharp declines during the retail driven phases and selling by long term huddlers that accompanying the psych cycle peaks as we saw back in 20172021 year preceding the previous havings. Analyzing the long term Hodler supply change data from Crypto quant reveals that the on rolling 30 day basis the supply which dropped by 1.1 million Bitcoin November 26, the second largest on record and as of Monday the long term Hodler supply decreased by 761,000 bitties over the past 30 days suggesting these investors are capitulating as fears a deeper price drops mount. That's right. For example we had Rich dad recently sell I think he said 2 point something million worth of his bitcoin stash because he's anticipating a crash lower and other analysts are doing the same thing. Whale sold almost 3 billion worth of Bitcoin over the last 30 days, keeping the downside pressure firmly in place. So the question is can Bitcoin avoid a trip below 70 g's? Let me know Bitcoin's TA structure after lost support from the 50 week moving average of the yearly open of 93. 3 this chart on your screen shows Bitcoin validating a bear flag when it dropped below the lower boundary of the flag of 92 on Friday. The first area of interest now lies at the 83. Eight local low reached December 1st and the multi month low of 80,500 reached November 21st. Losing the support zone would open the door for a deeper correction towards the measured target of the flag at 68.5 supported by the 200 week moving average. Such a move would represent a 20 drawdown from the current price action. Quoting the analysts here, Bitcoin broke down again confirming the bear flag, adding that the next potential Support is the 100 week EMA which is 8055 which we're currently just above fam, he says. If we break that there are key onchain levels of 838 and 812 before 80,000 comes into the picture. Also, the 20 day EMA has begun to turn down and the RSI is in a negative territory, referencing the relative strength index indicating the bears are in control Next story of the day Prediction markets and degeneracy continuing Winkle Voss led Gemini rolls out prediction markets in 50 US states I remember the good old days when gambling was illegal and you had to go to like Vegas or Atlantic City. Now it's so much a part of our culture it's not even funny. Like all the sports betting things and now the betting markets, the cow trees, the poly market, they all want a piece of the pie, including the potus. But now we got Gemini, the crypto exchange founded billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron who have rolled out prediction markets of the US after securing key regulatory approval, Gemini launched its in house prediction market. Gemini predictions across all 50 US states. I wonder if that includes territories like Puerto Rico. Provided via the affiliate Gemini Titan, Gemini Predictions enables users to trade on the outcomes of real world events with near instant execution and full transparency. The launch came shortly after Gemini Titan obtained a design contract market license from the CFTC just this Wednesday, authorizing the company to offer prediction markets at the us. The arrival of the Gemini Prediction marks the company's latest step in building a one stop super app allowing users to not only trade crypto but also to stake assets, earn rewards, buy tokenized stocks and participate in the prediction markets. The move aligns with the broader industry trend towards the all in one platforms in crypto, with rival exchanges like Coinbase rushing to introduce wide range of services including trending prediction markets and tokenized stocks. That's because it's such a big industry and they're all greedy as and they all want their hand on the pie at the end of the day, like all of them, the trend has also been picked up by self custody old wallets like Meta Mass and Trust Wallet, as well as major dexes like Pancake Swap, which released a new BNB Chase chain based prediction platform Probable on Tuesday. The project adds to the growing portfolio prediction markets based on Yzi Labs, the venture capital firm founded by Banan founder cz, including Opinion, which topped the market rankings in November. The industry's push to launch prediction markets follow years of regulatory uncertainty in the US with major providers such as Polymarket, which I believe is the largest, resuming local operations after previously facing a ban. Back in 2022, the platform started rolling out its relaunch of the US early December, announcing that weight listed users would be the first to access the app. And in another sign of the warming US Stance towards prediction markets, a group of providers including Kali, Robin Hood and crypto.com recently received a temporary reprieve after a judge intervened following a case of the season assist issued by the state of Connecticut in early December. So personally I'm not a huge fan of the gambling. I think it's degeneracy at its finest. I think it's not good for our youth who are being programmed into gambling through video games at a young age and then getting these habits which are oftentimes irreversible. So I don't, I don't, I don't. I'm not into it personally. I'm not pushing prediction markets, but I guess there's just so much money in it. It's become a part of our everyday culture at this point, you know. But anyways, next Story of the day headline here reads Trump to look into the recently convicted Samurai Wallet co founder. There's been a lot of talk of him potentially pardoning this gentleman. Trump says he'll review the case of convicted Samurai Wallet co founder Keon Rodriguez hitting he will explore the possibility of a pardon. That's how it all started with Ross, right? Samurai Wallet co founders Rodriguez and William Longergan hill were sentenced Nov. 19 to five and four years in prison on charges stemming from their involvement in the crypto mixing protocol. I can guarantee you if it was the Biden administration still in power, they would have got like life in prison, right? Just like Ross. I've heard about it, trump says. I'll look at it, trump said when he asked about the case at a press conference recently about the Mexican border at the White House Monday. Okay, let's take a look at it. You know, you'll have to tell me, I don't know anything about it, which I don't believe, but we'll take a look at it. And that's typically how he addresses pardons. Privacy advocates and crypto users have long been advocating for this pardon, along with Tornado Cash co founder Roman Storm, arguing they shouldn't be held responsible for the actions of third party using their software. And I agree. I mean, they're ultimately developers who wrote code and now they're going to be in prison just because there may have been some bad actors using their services. That's like arresting Mark Zuckerberg or Elon Musk for someone using their social media platform for doing wrongdoing. Makes no sense. But anyways, Rodriguez, who is due to start his time behind bars this week, said in a recent post Monday, guys.

[Mrs. Claus]

Thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree.

[Drew Ski]

Zoe, this thing weighs a ton. Drew Ski, lift with your legs man.

[JV]

Santa. Santa, did you get my letter?

[Drew Ski]

He's talking to you Bridges. I'm not.

[Mrs. Claus]

Of course he did.

[Drew Ski]

Right Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here. He handles the nice list. And elf, I'm six' three. What everyone wants is iPhone 17 and at T Mobile you can get it on them. That center stage front camera is amazing for group selfies, right Mrs. Claus?

[Mrs. Claus]

I'm Mrs. Claus much younger sister and AT T Mobile there's no trade in needed when you switch so you can.

[Drew Ski]

Keep your old phone or give it as a gift.

[Mrs. Claus]

And the best part? You can make the switch to T Mobile from your phone in just 15 minutes.

[Drew Ski]

Nice. My side of the tree is slipping.

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[JV]

B R-I K.com that the continued noise from supporters is working. Thank you and everyone for pushing Trump to pardon Bill and me. Let's get this over the line. And recently, in an interview with Natalie Brunel Friday, Rodriguez says he believes he waived his right to appeal as part of the plea deal. That is crack. When you take a plea deal, you no longer have the right to appeal it. Though he added he was not 100 certain that any appeal would be unlikely. Well, ask your attorney, they should know this. But you can see Natalie Brunel talking about it here. Regarding the potential pardon, quoting Rodriguez, because Trump had been touched by the DOJ that was weaponized against him. I think when he sees the facts laid out in the table, he'll know exactly what's going on. Rodriguez and Hill initially pleaded not guilty, but then agreed to pleading guilty to one charge of operating an illegal transmitter in July. Now, oftentimes people admit guilt, such as CZ to avoid a longer sentence. So, for example, maybe if they didn't take the plea deal, regardless if they feel they're guilty or not, they could have been facing potentially 20 years in prison. So they're like, yeah, I'll just admit the guilt even though I don't. I'm not guilty in my mind. Let's just pretend I am. So I only get a few years. And probably what they did. Let's see, they fa, yep, they faced at least 25 years in prison, see, on charges of conspiracy to commit money laundering, which carries a maximum prison sentence. And you bet the judge would probably have gave them the fucking maximum if they were found guilty by a jury and operating an unlicensed money transmitting business, which carries a sentence of five years. So it could have been life in prison. Up until the sentence hearing, Rodriguez said he regretted pleading guilty, but feared the judge wouldn't allow key evidence to be used in his defense, such as receiving legal advice before launching Samurai Wallet. And after crunching the numbers, he also found a conviction means 25 years. Even if you appeal, you're sitting in prison for five years waiting for your appeal. Insane. Your appeal is going to cost you another seven million on top of the four and a half million you've already spent to get to this point. That's right. Legal fees are no joke. So the numbers just did not make sense since taking office. Remember, Trump did pardon CZ more recently October, after he pleaded guilty. And similar, if he didn't plead guilty, if they would have found him guilty, he'd be facing years in prison and not a good look. When you're the wealthiest man on the planet in the sense as of crypto. I should say wealthiest man in crypto, not on the planet. Elon's wealth dwarfs CZ, but CZ still worth could be anywhere from 75 to $100 billion. So you don't want to be sitting in jail with that type of net worth. It's unheard of. But anyways. Also Ross Albrecht, founder of the defunct Darknet marketplace Silk Road, was also granted a presidential pardon on his life sentence in January. I think now the heat is on Trump and it's on his radar. I think they the gentlemen stand a very realistic probability of being pardoned. I think Trump would do that for the community because what does it cost Trump? Nothing, right? But let me know your thoughts fam Next story FAM Headline here Japan's SBI and Star Tail Plan regulated yen stablecoin in 2026 currently under a new framework, Japan's financial conglomerate SBI holdings and Web3 Infrastructure Co. Star Tail Group signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a fully regulated Japanese yen denominated stablecoin targeting tokenized asset markets and global settlement. As the company said in a press release, under this new MoU, the project will be issued and redeemed by Shinse Trust and Banking, a wholly owned subsidiary of the SBI Shinsh Bank. At the same time, licensed crypto asset exchange service provider SBI VC Trade will support the circulation of the stablecoin. Now, Yoshi Taka? Ka, the representative, director, chairman and President of sbi, said the issuing of a yen denominated stablecoin with Star Tail will serve as a foundation for the country's transition into a tokenized economy, quoting them here by circulating it both domestically and globally, we aim to dramatically accelerate the movement towards providing digital financial services that are fully integrated with Traditional Finance. The stablecoin is expected to launch in the second quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approval and the completion of the compliance frameworks. Now Japan accelerates these stablecoin efforts the initial initiative comes as Japan accelerates efforts to formalize stablecoin issuance under a clear regulatory framework, positioning trust banks and licensed entities at the center of the on chain settlement infrastructure. Japan's Financial Services Agency, the regulated responsible or regulator for the banking, securities and exchange and issuance or insurance sectors, recently launched its Payment Innovation Project, a regulatory sandbox for the blockchain based payments. Also, SBI advanced their stablecoin integration, emerging as a central player in Japan's evolving stablecoin landscape, pursuing a multi currency strategy that spans both dollar and yen denominated assets. Also Back in March, SBI VC Trade integrated circles USDC Stablecoin into the exchange platform as the country soften its stablecoin rules. This means that the exchange was amongst the first platforms in Japan to offer crypto trading in USDC and on August 21st Ripple announced it was bringing the RL USD stablecoin to Japan early 2026 through a partnership with the SBI VC Trade. The company said it would offer institutions and users a regulated stablecoin design for enterprise use cases. So are we actually in a bear market as the only years that end up lower than the start have always been the sell of the ones well bears will tell you 2026, 2027 are going to be bear winters. We'll continue to correct bulls are going to tell you extended cycle because the four year cycle as we know it is no longer a thing. In fact, that's going to transition us into our next feature story of the day. Let's break it down. Bitcoin hit a new all time high within six months, according to Grayscale. They also are saying that the four year cycle as we know it is dead. That's right. Grayscale analysts forecast crypto market resurgence, arguing the rise in demand could push the biddy to a new all time high for the first half of 2026. Also, the asset manager made the prediction as part of the 2026 Outlook report recently published on Monday, which also explored 10 key investing themes for the year. Commenting on Bitcoin, Grayscale said the price will skyrocket in the first half of 2026. Let me know if you agree. This is on the back of the increased macro demand for alternative value stores and improved regulatory clarity of the U.S. the firm argued this will also coincide with the end of supposed Bitcoin four year cycle. Quoting the Grayscale analysts, we expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so called four year cycle. Or the theory that crypto market direction follows a reoccurring four year pattern. The bitcoin price will likely reach a new all time high within the first half of the year in our view. Let me know if you agree or disagree. Here's the proof of work they shared on X 2026 may be the year digital assets enter their institutional era. Grayscale believes macro tailwinds regulatory clarity will drive demand for scarce assets like BTC and ETA eth. And in terms of the macro, the asset manager argues the fiat currencies are facing rising the basement risk due the rise in public sector debt and potential implications for inflation over time. As they outline here, as long as the risk for fiat currency debasement keeps rising, portfolio demand for the biddy and ether will likely continue rising as well. And commenting on the climate, Grayscale said there has been a sharp change in tune in the US over the past couple of deer years.

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To a number of cases dropped against crypto firms, the approved Spot Bitcoin ETS paving the way for other crypto products to hit the market and the passing of the Genius Act. As Grayscale shared in the report. In 2024, Bitcoin and Ether Spot ETPs came to the market. In 2025, Congress passed the Genius act on stablecoins and regulators shifted their approach towards crypto, working with the industry to provide clear guidance while continuing to focus on consumer protection and financial stability. In 2026, Grayscale expects Congress to pass bipartisan crypto market structure legislation which will likely cement blockchain based finance of the US Capital markets and facilitate continued institutional investment. Now for Grayscale's tips. Top 10 themes for the new year Grayscale's report offered its take on the top 10 investment themes of 2026, reflecting the breadth of U S cases emerging across public blockchain tech. The list includes major themes such as stablecoin market growth due to the Genius act, asset tokenization hitting an inflection point and major defy growth led by lending markets and investors seeking out staking by default. Quoting them again in 2026, we expect to see the practical results. Stablecoins integrated into cross border payment services Stable coins as collateral on derivative exchanges Stable coins on corporate balance sheets and stable coins as an alternative to credit cards and online consumer payments. Meanwhile, grayscale is also tipped two narratives that won't likely sway the crypto market next year. That includes quantum computing and digital asset treasuries. As they share, we believe that research and preparedness will continue to post quantum cryptography, but this issue is unlikely to affect valuation in the next year. Despite their media attention, we believe the dats will not be a major swing factor for digital asset markets in 2026. So there's the latest and greatest from grayscale. Let me know if you agree. Disagree New all time high Incoming within six months in the four year cycle as we know it is dead ultimately meaning continued cycle theory in full effect entering 2026 new all time high. Send it. Don't forget smash the like. Thank you family Lamb what does the four year cycle mean? Well, just like the four year presidency cycle, every four years we get a new president. It is in direct alignment with the Bitcoin four year having cycle. Two years bull, two years winter. That's how it's been since our first having of 2012. Next have in 2016 third habit of 2020 and then the fourth having which was last year in 2024. Every four years we have a bitcoin having which usually kicks off a new cycle. 2 years bull, 2 years bear, 2 years bull 2 years bear extended cycle is saying we're not going to see the two year bear as we typically see ultimately meaning 2026. This time we're going to get new all time highs and continue in the bull. That's the difference. I've been saying for months that I think the four year cycle is a thing of the past. Why 95 has been mine now. Wall Street, ETFs, countries, nation states, sovereign wealth courts, Bitcoin treasuries, etc. That's right, it refers to the 4 year having intervals 100 shout out shandy10 good to have you on the live stream and welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode Hoddle.