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2198: CF Benchmarks Targets $1.4M Bitcoin as MSCI Triggers $15B Shakeout
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or or situations.
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Welcome bitty fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. Bitcoin is correcting. We're just below 85000 at the time of the live stream and there's a lot going on in the markets right now. We'll be discussing Bitcoin hunting liquidity as the US CPI inflation drops to the lowest since 2021. We'll also be discussing the latest with bitcoiners push For Quantum Resistant BIP 360 upgrade as the debate continues heating up. Also spot Bitcoin ES record 457 million of inflows. An early positioning push as well as MSCI's crypto treasury rules can spur a $15 billion liquidation worth of forced selling. And this is right around the corner. We'll also be discussing the crypto ETPs can see a flood of liquidations by 2027 according to the top analysts. Also CF benchmark views Bitcoin as a portfolio staple projecting 1.4 million price target. I'll be breaking it down for you. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is pod number 2,198. This Saturday sat stack. And Saturday will be the infamous episode number two 2200. Mark it in your calendar, you do not want to miss it. Today is December 18, 2025. Bitcoin continuing to correct manipulation of the market continues. There's a price suppression happening. I'm 100% convinced. We had another nice breakout today and instantly pulled back down by the bears, you know. So it's pretty wild. But we shall dissect the cipher all the latest and greatest in the market. But first, give it up for the Fed chair, my co host, the Nipponator, keeping them nipinating. And with that being shared, let's kick this mofo off with our market watch. Pulling up coin360, you can see Bitcoin hovering just above 85,300 the time of the live stream. We have ether hovering just above 2800. Bulk of the market all correcting and in the red, minus Tron and a handful of others. Checking out coinmarketcap.com the market cap's back on the climb. Looking to reclaim 3 trillion. Currently 2.98 trillion. On the cusp of getting right back up there. Bitcoin market cap today, 1.7 trillion. It's also been on the decline. Ironic enough. Check it out. Top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got bait leading the pack up 24%. Below that, virtually minuscule gains of, you know, 3% for Bitcoin Cash and, you know, 2% for PI. As the bulk of the market is correcting it in the red, check it out to cryptogreed for index. We did up it a bit from yesterday. Today's a 17, extreme fear yesterday 16. And last month we hit an 11. We actually bottomed at a 10. So that's the local low on this. Checking out the time chain calendar. Today we're at block height 928 456. And you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1176 SATs. So you know precisely what to do. You pick up the SATs, put down the gaps, and pick up some bitcoin caps from a man, Sergio, over@bitcoin caps.net all right, yo, next up we'll do a little TA, a little technical analysis. We'll start with the live charts. And remember, you can't short your dorks. You'll get liquidated. Checking out the one hour, we finally have a bull target on the screen. On the hourly, it's in the red sitting at 97, 800, which would take us right back on track for the coveted 100k. And then there's literally four bear scenarios. I'll give you a few of them. There's a cluster sitting around 80,000 and right below from like maybe 79 to 80. Let me know which direction you think we'll have a breakout because we've been consolidating and trading sideways for quite some time. And as you can see on the hourly chart, we had another nice breakout today. Immediately followed by cascading downward wicks unfortunately. What's happening? You know, you guys let me know. Checking out the four hour though to get any better? Not really. You can see we had a nice breakout again today and drug right back down manipulation. Definitely happening. I'm 100% convinced at this point. However, we do have a rising wedge ascension channel and we do have a bull target on the four hour also sitting at 976, 976 in play and checking out the daily. You're going to notice another red candle on the day yesterday red candle a day before we finally had a green. But you got to also consider we had four, five consecutive red candle days and we're currently below the moving averages. And so there every time we regain momentum we get crushed right back down and there's sell offs which seem to be 100% orchestrated right now in the market. So definitely something going on. Checking out the weekly you're going to notice right now it's Thursday. We still have three days until the weekly candle close but it's another red significant candle to the downside. Unfortunately last week we had a red candle. The week prior was pretty equal, barely in the green and then the week prior in the green and prior to that we had 1, 2, 3, 4 massive red candles to the downside, you know, so that's where we're at. And checking out the monthly. That get any better? Not really. This entire fourth quarter has been bearish when historically we were all anticipating bull. You know, historically it's the most bullish season of the year. The fourth quarter, October, November, December. However this time around October and November were extremely bearish in December thus far though we have two weeks left to put a bow on the final month of the year. We're currently in the red. So let's see if we get a turnaround or if we continue to crack lower with this whole yen carry trade. A lot of uncertainty and panic and FUD in the markets at the moment. But checking out next up, this particular headline Bitcoin hunts liquidity as the USCPI inflation drops to the lowest since 2021. That's right. As you can see on the chart here, trading view show Bitcoin passing 89 before reversing lower. And it's like breakout fake out right back down. And this seems to be the trend as of late. The move followed the November release of the CPI which printed one of the largest monthly declines since 2023. Firmly against expectations. The All Time Index rose 2.7% for the 12 months ending November after rising 3% over the past 12 months ending September, an official statement from the U S Bureau Labor Statistics confirm. They also noted October CPI report was not issued due to the government shutdown and that definitely didn't help us in the market whatsoever. And that's why October was so bearish. Reacting Trading Resource the Cavisi letter led the surprise suggesting contrarian inflation signals continuing into the new year. This puts the core CPI inflation of the US at the lowest level since March of 2021. So according to this data, inflation is now at the closest point to the Fed's 2% target since the plan. Demic I don't believe any of the anytimes they share statistics or numbers. To me it's just talking heads by the suits. I mean how can they dare say inflation is close to 2%? The cat is out of the bag. It's nowhere near.
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Guys, thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree.
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Zoe, this thing weighs a ton. Drewy, lift with your legs man.
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Santa.
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Santa, did you get my letter?
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He's talking to you Bridges.
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I'm not that.
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Of course he did.
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Visit t mobile.com Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law not available in all states 2%. But that's the they'd be pushing to let us pretend that the economy is doing so great, but inflation really tells us something different. And of course they fudge the numbers. They can come up with any numbers that they like. I say trust nobody, verify everything, but that's just me. I digress. Versus the anticipated 3% increase CPI. Meanwhile, food's up like 20% in the year, right? Risk assets like bitcoin are rallying on the back of this combined with the large fall of the dollar as well as the bond yields. For example, the three month annualized CPI is just slightly over 2%. This should be very welcomed by the Fed. More rate cuts expected to get the price following this data. Is it priced then? Yay Nay. Holl at your boy, let me know. And what's the new long term Bitcoin price? Low. Let's entertain it. Accusations of market manipulation. That's what I'm screaming from the rooftops came as bitcoin hit walls of liquidity both above and below while failing to sustain the new trend. Total crypto liquidations of the past 24 hours is now 630 million. So yeah, longs are getting wiped out. Shorts are getting wiped out. Watch out now. With the snap moves continuing on the day trader Ted Pillows eyed similarities for the start of the year, quoting them here. Bitcoin mimicking the quarter one 2025 fractal. What if this plays out? Meanwhile, the chart on your screen shows another macro bottom for the bitty still to come, similar to that scene in early April when bitcoin dipped below 75 GS. So let me know if you think the current 80,000 support will hold up or do you think we're likely to test maybe? The 75,000 level is outlined here on the chart by the Ted Pillows and we shall continue with our next story of the day. Headline here reads Bitcoiners Push for the Quantum Resistant BIP360 upgrade. As the debate heats up, this has been a very hot topic of conversation we've been discussing on the pod. There's a small growing group of the bitcoin advocates and crypto fund managers urging the network to accelerate work on quantum resistance signatures, arguing that the perception of a future quantum threat could become a market risk long before it becomes a practical one. So some supporters are pointing to a draft of the bitcoin improvement proposal known as bit360, which would introduce a post quantum signature option for bitcoin addresses that could be vulnerable for future advances in quantum computing. The implementation must be finalized and deployed next year 2026, according to Charles Edwards, the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and Digital Asset Fund Capriole Investments. However, the implementation of the new standard would require wider consensus amongst hardware wallet providers, node operators and crypto exchanges, added Capriole in a post. He says 20 to 30% of Bitcoin will be taken by a quantum hacker in the next few years. I believe we should burn all the coins that do not migrate to the BIP360 by 2028. Let me know if you agree with that. However, other industry watchers see quantum computing as a short term risk for the Bitcoin price. Quoting an analyst here. Pro tip for the quantum FUD promoters, Bitcoin does not use encryption. Get your basics right or it's a tell. And that's according to Adam Back, the Bitcoin OG and founder of Blockstream. You know he's a very smart man by the way. Also, we have another OG, Samson Mao. I want to talk to Samson, CEO at a Bitcoin tech company, Jan3. He also mocked the idea of early quantum computing threatening the bitcoin network, quoting Samson here Quantum computing can't even factor 21, yet people are panic selling because they think it will kill Bitcoin. Bitcoin's latest TAP root format, which is perceived as quantum vulnerable, is declining in usage from 42% of the transactions of 2024. Just 20%, signaling that the users may be worried about the Bitcoin quantum threat. Let me know if you're worried. Yay or nay in the live chat fam and it shows you the differences. Here you can see we have the TAT route, we have the SEGWIT native, the SEGWIT nested and the Legacy and the ones above are stronger and harder to crack. Quoting Willy Woo, another OG I've never seen the latest format losing adoption before. Tap root is quantum vulnerable while other SEGWIT and Legacy are not. So apparently SEGWIT is the way to go. From my understanding, however, there's no direct evidence that quantum computing concerns cause a decline in T RO usage as the adoption fluctuates based on factors including crypto exchange behavior, fee optimization, wallet support and batch spending patterns. You know the Bitcoin TAT root upgrade is the most important upgrade for the crypto which we've experienced since 2017. When Segwit was activated, Tap root aimed to upgrade the privacy and efficiency of the bitty network. However, other cryptography researchers said the tap root upgrades already quantum resistant. TAP root when restricted to script path spends is post quantum secure, wrote Tim Ruffing, a cryptographer the Blockstream research and a research paper. A quantum attacker can't look inside a tap root output. An example the attacker learns about nothing about the Merkel root until it's revealed. Meanwhile back one of the leading cryptographers proposed a new hash based signature scheme promise and post quantum alternatives for Bitcoin where security would rely solely on hash function assumptions similar to the ones currently used in the Bitcoin network design. Also note hash based signature schemes offering a promising path securing Bitcoin in a post quantum world as quantum safe replacement for the ECDSA signatures, according to the paper released by Backs blockstring research back December 15th. Also, the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm uses elliptic curve cryptography to verify the authenticity and integrity of the message. These signatures offer signature scheme praise for enhanced privacy, reducing data size due to their ability to combine multiple signatures into one and I'm sure it seems like I'm speaking a foreign language here. Bottom line, the bigger picture, it's not a concern right now, but in the future years it could be a realistic concern. So bitcoiners and cryptographers were trying to figure out what's the best solution. Ultimately, with the fact that quantum computing as it continues to advance, you know, exponentially, how can we protect bitcoins on the network? And some people are proposing freezing allegedly lost coins, while others are thinking we're gonna have to fork the network and so forth. But let me know your thoughts. Is it a concern of yours? Holler Next story Let's break her down. Spot big on ETS record 457 million worth of the inflows early positioning the push. That's right. Spot big on each house recorded almost a half a billion worth of net inflows. That was yesterday on Wednesday, marking the strongest day intake in more than a month as institutional demand shows signs of RE acceleration. Leading the pack we had the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fun leading the inflows, recording the largest daily intake at roughly 391 million, accounting for the majority of the day's net flows. Also Black Rock ibit follow with 111 million, according to the Far side data. Other funds saw modest withdrawals such as bitwise with 8.4 million of outflows and arc with 37 million of outflows, and hashdacks posted around 1 1/2 million of outflows on the day the inflows lifted cumulative net inflows for the US Popoin ETFs to more than 57 billion, with the total net assets climbing above 112 billion, equivalent to around six and a half percent of the Bitcoin total market cap. The rebound followed a choppy stretch in November early December when the flows alternated between the modest inflows with the sharp outflows spot. Bitcoin ETFs last saw inflows above 450 million. That was November 11, when the funds pulled in roughly a half a billion in a single day. Now, Vincent Lou, chief investment officer Kronos said the research or renewed interest appears to reflect early positioning rather than the late cycle enthusiasm. He says ETF inflows feel like early positioning. As rate expectations soften, Bitcoin becomes a clean liquidity trade again. Politics set the mood, but the capital moves on the macro. He also cautioned that while momentum could continue, it's unlikely to be smooth. Momentum likely holds, but expect it to be uneven.
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Host
He said he plans to appoint a new Fed chair who strongly supports cutting the interest rates. He spoke during a national address marking the first year of his second term. And he also said he would announce a successor to the current Fed chair, Jay Powell, early next year. Long live the Nipinator, the official Fed chair. Just saying. But anyways, around 6.7 million is sitting at a loss at this time. Bitcoin returned to price levels last seen nearly a year ago, leaving behind a dense supply cluster between the 93, 120 level that continues to cap recovery attempts. This top heavy structure has pushed the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss to 6.7 million, the highest level of this current cycle. The report also said demand remains fragile across both spot and derivative markets. Spot buying has been selective and short live corporate treasury flows episodic and future positioning continues to do de risk rather than rebuild conviction until sellers are absorbed above 95, where the fresh liquidity enters the market, Bitcoin is likely to regain or remain caught between structural support near the 81 level and ironic enough, we're practically maybe 4,000 above that level at the time of the live stream. Merry Christmas. All right, next story. Brosis Baddies alike the MSCI Crypto treasury rules can spur 15 billion of the 4 selling that's right, crypto treasury companies could be forced to sell as much as 15 billion in crypto if the MSCI, which is the Morgan Stanley Capital International, goes ahead and excludes them from the indexes. Bitcoin for Corporations, a group campaigning against the MSCI proposal, projected outflows of between 10 to 15 billion dollars based on verified preliminary list of 39 companies with 113 billion in total float adjusted market cap, it added. JP Morgan's analysis estimated that Sailor Strategy can see almost 3 billion of outflows if it were removed from the MSCI. The Bitcoin treasury firm represents 75 of the total impacted float adjusted market cap analysts calculated potential outflows could total almost 12 billion across all impacted companies and such a large outflow would put more selling pressure on the crypto markets which have already been trending downwards for almost the last three months since October when the freaking tariffs all began. Now the Bitcoin for corporation petition letter currently at 1268 signatures and apparently they're trying to get a lot more. Obviously we spell out the potential implications The MSCI proposed 50% DAT exclusion rule also the MSCI announced October it was consulting with the investment community about whether to exclude exclude crypto treasury companies like strategy that have the majority of their balance sheet in crypto MSCI indexes serve as critical benchmarks determining which companies have passive investment funds which must hold making inclusion decisions highly consequential for companies access into the capital. However, Bitcoin for corporations that the balance sheet metric is unfair for judging a company quoting them here. A single balance sheet metric cannot reflect whether a company is an operating business. The rule would remove companies even when their customers, revenue, operations and business model remain unchanged. Great point. They added that the MSCI should withdraw the proposal and continue to classify companies based on their actual business model. Makes common sense to me also their financial performance and operational characteristics. You know, instead of being prejudice prejudice against these Bitcoin holding companies, which it seems what they're leaning towards. MSCI's final conclusions will be announced January 15th. That's going to be a big decision day, and it's roughly a month away with the proposed implementation being included in the February 2026 index review. Also December 5, NASDAQ listed strive urged the MSCI to let the market decide whether they want to include bitcoin holding companies in their passive investments. And a few days later Strategy stated in a letter that the president proposed policy change would bias the MSCI against crypto as an asset class hit the nail on the head rather than the index company acting as a neutral arbiter, and this could continue spreading the fud, potentially causing a mass liquidation event which we pray is avoided. But how do you think that will play out the big January 15th decision looming for the MSI? Let me know. And do you think companies like Strategy should be worried because Sailor always seems calm as a cucumber? Let me know your thoughts without further ado. Now for our next story of the day. Crypto ETPs could see a flood of the liquidations by 2027. That's right, more than 100 crypto ETPs are likely to hit the market next year 2026, but many of them will quickly be shuttered due to the lack of demand, according to the analyst, such as a Bloomberg expert, James Seyffart. He shared on Wednesday that he agreed with a 2026 prediction crypto asset manager Bitwise that over 100 crypto ETFs with launch damn 100 new ones incoming send it. But he said they wouldn't last, quoting him here, we're going to see a lot of liquidations of the crypto ETPs might happen at the tail end of 2026, but likely by the end of 2027, adding that over 126 ETP apps are currently awaiting an outcome from the US SEC issuers are throwing a lot of the product at the wall now. Last year a total of 622 ETFs closed down. That's a lot, including over 189 of the U S, the Daily Upside noted last month. Morning Star reported January 2024 that the 244 ETFs that closed in the US in 2023 had an average age of 5.4 years as outlined right here by Mr. Safart Fart. I said it Most of these investment products shut down because they fail to attract sufficient inflows, resulting in the low assets under management. Several crypto ETPs have already been liquidated this year, the most noteworthy being arc 21 Cathie Wood. How much bitty would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck bitties? You gotta ask Kathy. Industry analysts expect an explosion of the Number of crypto ETPs approved next year under the new SEC Generic Listing standards, which no longer require that each app be assessed on a case the case basis. Even before the SEC's generic listing standards came into effect September asset managers have filed a launch ETFs tied to increasingly speculative tokens such as Melania's Trump meme coin. Who would be such a sucker to buy that crap? I mean, it's only down 99% ETFs track and Litecoin Salana XRP launched relative success this year, expanding to the Bitty and Ether ETFs launch of 2024. Spot Bitcoin ETFs of the US have accumulated 57 billion worth of the inflows since launching and January of last year, while spot E3TS amassed 12.6 billion since July of 2024. All right fam. Now for our feature story of the day. CF Benchmark views Bitcoin as a portfolio staple projecting 1.4 million per coin. Here's the kicker by 2035, ultimately within the next decade. Let's break her down, shall we? CF Benchmarks, a wholly owned subsidiary of Kraken stated on Thirsty Throwback Thursday today the institutional investors are increasingly analyze in the prelo biddy through the lens of portfolio construction rather than the short term price cycles. The firm models a base case price a 1.4 mil. Which means that's not even the bull scenario Broski's. But the kicker again is by the year 2035 in the new 42 page report.
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Advertiser 1
Guys, thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree.
- [27:06]
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Zoe. This thing weighs a ton. Brusky. Live with your legs, man.
- [27:09]
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Santa. Santa, did you get my letter?
- [27:11]
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He's talking to you, Bridges.
- [27:12]
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I'm not.
- [27:13]
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Of course he did.
- [27:14]
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Right, Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here. He handles the nice list. And elf, I'm six' three. What everyone wants is iPhone 17 and at T Mobile. You can get it on them. That center stage front camera is amazing for group selfies. Right, Mrs. Claus?
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Guys, my side of the tree is slipping.
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- [28:35]
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Capital Market Assumptions A Practitioner's Framework for Strategic Tactical Allocations, the UK based FCA regulated benchmark administrator argued Bitcoin can be evaluated using the same capital market assumptions applied to traditional assets, including expected returns, volatility and correlations. That Peter Shift reflects growing institutional participation as regulated markets become accessible, deeper liquidity of the spot and derivative markets and improving regulatory clarity, according to the firm. And instead of offering near term price call, CF benchmarks applied multiple valuation frameworks to assess the bitties, long term value and diversified portfolios. Those models include comparative valuation against other stores of value, production economics that link market price to mining cost and analysis of the Bitcoin sensitivity to the global liquidity concerns. Taken together, CF Benchmark said these approaches suggest Bitcoin's value is supported by the expand and share of a global store of value market, its fixed supply schedule and its responsiveness to monetary conditions. As institutional participation increases, the firm anticipates volatility will decline over time while correlations with traditional asset classes remain relatively low, thereby enhancing the diversification potential. Long term scenarios through 2035 let's analyze, shall we? Using the framework, CF Benchmark derived a range of the long term valuation outcome for the Bitcoin throughout 2035 based on differing adoption paths in its most conservative scenario. Let's start here. The firm modeled a bear case in which the Bitcoin continues to gain market share at its historical price, capturing roughly 16 to 33% of the gold market cap. And under that scenario, the CF benchmark estimated pretty low biddy price of 637, 000 per coin by 2035. And again, that's the bear case. Their lowest estimate. Its base case assumes broader institutional adoption, faster growth, with the bitcoin reaching roughly 1/3 of the goal market cap. That probability weighted scenario implies a price of around 1.4 million per coin by 2035. Again, that's the base case. Now, the moment you've all been waiting for for the bull scenario. Tell me the bull, J.B. you got it. Thought you never asked. In a more optimistic bull case CF benchmark model, the Bitcoin becoming the dominant global store of value surpassing the gold market cap ballpark 30 trillion. That scenario projected evaluation of nearly 3 million per bitty by 2035 driven by accelerated institutional and sovereign adoption. And beyond the price outcome, CF benchmarks at its stimulations suggest a strategic allocation of roughly 2 to 5%. So you could, you know, exponentially increase those numbers based upon the increased allocation. Just FYI. And recently we even had the bank of America come out and propose that in your portfolio you should have 4% bitcoin. Why so bearish bank of America? In those models, Bitcoin's high expected of returns, declining volatility, low correlations with equities bonds expanded the efficient frontier allowing for higher return targets at a comparable or lower level of risk. The firm argued that the regulatory clarity improves and the institutional access deepens. Investors are likely to focus less on speculative narratives and more on discipline, allocation, the rebalancing and risk management frameworks. And rather than treating Bitcoin as an outlier asset, CF benchmark analysis positions it as an asset that can be increasingly modeled to be a component of the long term portfolios with valuation outcomes side to adoption dynamics and macroeconomic conditions rather than the short term market sentiment. And if you don't know, you'll never know. Do the research and be on the lookout for the next nibinator indicator. Welcome everyone to the Q and A segment of the live stream. Let me know your thoughts on some of those predictions. From the bear case, the base case to the bull and holl at your boy.
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Singer/Performer
That makes it glow. But I want to thank you Satoshi. You make it feel like Christmas. It barely took a BTC by to realize we're going to be a classic for all time. I want to thank you Satoshi. You make it feel like Christmas. Sweet bitty stacking made with molasses My heart skipped and I reacted can't believe that this is happening Like a present sent from God. Bitcoin pump singing hallelujah Stars are shining on us too I want to thank you Satoshi you make it feel like Christmas Thought I was done for Thought that F was about to die but you came along I swear you saved my life and I wanna thank you since cause you make it feel like Christmas. Sweet bitty stack made with molasses My heart skipped and I reacted can't believe that this is happening Like a present sent from God Bitcoin pumps singing hallelujah Stars are shining on us too I wanna thank you Satoshi you make it feel like Christmas I never thought I'd find security like this but I found up forever in that very first purchase I want to thank you Satoshi you make it feel like Christmas O.
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Host
I.
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Singer/Performer
Want to thank you Satoshi you make it feel like Christmas Satoshi makes it feel the ding ding rise and stuff Star spirit of Christmas.
- [35:31]
Host
And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hodle Foreign.
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