Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC News

Episode 2198: CF Benchmarks Targets $1.4M Bitcoin as MSCI Triggers $15B Shakeout
Date: December 18, 2025
Host: Bitcoin News Alerts

Episode Overview

In this engaging episode, the host dives into a turbulent week for Bitcoin, exploring the latest price corrections, institutional moves, and looming regulatory threats. The key focus includes analysis of the Bitcoin price action amid macroeconomic shifts, the battle over quantum resistance upgrades, massive ETF inflows, a potential $15 billion liquidation caused by MSCI's crypto treasury rules, and the bold $1.4M per Bitcoin price target from CF Benchmarks. The show maintains its trademark irreverent, “stack sats” maximalist tone throughout, with memorable quotes and interactive commentary.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bitcoin Market Correction & Technical Analysis

[00:58–06:00]

• Market Status:

  • Bitcoin was trading just above $85,300 at livestream.
  • Broader crypto market is correcting; ETH holding above $2,800.
  • Market cap just shy of $3 trillion, with Bitcoin at $1.7 trillion.
  • "Bitcoin is correcting. We're just below 85,000...and there's a lot going on in the markets right now." (Host, 00:58)

• Sentiment & Momentum:

  • Extreme fear persists—Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 17.
  • Recent breakout attempts repeatedly suppressed, fueling suspicion of manipulation:
    • “Every time we regain momentum, we get crushed right back down and there's sell-offs which seem to be 100% orchestrated.” (Host, 05:18)
  • Multiple red candles on daily and weekly charts; typically bullish Q4 has been unexpectedly bearish.

• Technical Targets:

  • Immediate bull target at $97,800 (hourly/four-hour), next real support around $80,000 or even $75,000.
  • “Let me know which direction you think we'll have a breakout because we've been consolidating and trading sideways for quite some time.” (Host, 04:16)

2. Inflation Drops, Market Manipulation Claims

[06:01–11:30]

• US CPI Data:

  • U.S. CPI inflation hit lowest point since March 2021, now at 2.7% YOY.
  • Host distrusts official data:
    • "To me, it's just talking heads by the suits. I mean how can they dare say inflation is close to 2%? The cat is out of the bag." (Host, 07:18)

• Impact on Risk Assets:

  • Lower inflation and falling dollar/bond yields instigated brief BTC rallies, but price quickly reversed.
  • Total crypto liquidations past 24h hit $630M — both longs and shorts “getting wiped out”.
  • “Accusations of market manipulation...Bitcoin hit walls of liquidity above and below...Watch out now.” (Host, 07:52)

• Macro Support:

  • Market now speculating on future Fed rate cuts, but conviction remains low.

3. Quantum Resistance BIP360 Debate

[11:31–18:20]

• Feature Discussion:

  • Debate over risk from quantum computing; push for BIP360—a quantum-resistant signature upgrade.
  • Charles Edwards (Capriole Investments) pushes for urgent action:
    • “20 to 30% of Bitcoin will be taken by a quantum hacker in the next few years. I believe we should burn all the coins that do not migrate to the BIP360 by 2028.” (cited by Host, 12:52)

• Industry OGs Respond:

  • Adam Back:
    • “Pro tip for the quantum FUD promoters, Bitcoin does not use encryption. Get your basics right or it's a tell.” (Host quoting Back, 13:34)
  • Samson Mow mocks the quantum panic and notes actual Taproot use is already declining.

• Technical Nuance:

  • While Taproot is technically quantum-vulnerable, adoption of SegWit and legacy address types remains strong.
  • Tim Ruffing (Blockstream): Taproot when restricted to script path spends is post-quantum secure.

• Host Conclusion:

  • Current panic is overblown, but prudent to plan for future quantum threats.

4. Spot Bitcoin ETF Record Inflows

[18:21–19:23]

• Market Movement:
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a record $457M net inflows on Wednesday, led by Fidelity and BlackRock.
  • “Leading the pack we had the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fun leading the inflows, recording the largest daily intake at roughly 391 million.” (Host, 17:10)
  • Total U.S. ETF net assets now above $112B (6.5% of BTC market cap).
  • Kronos CIO Vincent Lou:
    • “ETF inflows feel like early positioning. As rate expectations soften, Bitcoin becomes a clean liquidity trade again.” (cited, 17:58)

5. MSCI Crypto Treasury Index Ruling Could Spark $15B Shakeout

[19:24–22:57]

• Summary of Threat:

  • MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) is considering excluding “crypto treasury” firms (e.g., MicroStrategy) from its indexes.
  • Estimated forced selling could reach $15B, with Saylor’s MicroStrategy most affected (~$3B).
  • “Such a large outflow would put more selling pressure on the crypto markets which have already been trending downward for almost the last three months since October.” (Host, 20:41)

• Industry Backlash & Arguments:

  • Bitcoin for Corporations, NASDAQ-listed Strive, and MicroStrategy argue the criteria is unfair—balance sheets alone don’t define an “operating business.”
  • “The rule would remove companies even when their customers, revenue, operations and business model remain unchanged.” (Host citing Bitcoin for Corporations, 21:14)
  • Final decision due Jan 15, 2026; could be a major turning point for markets.

6. Crypto ETP (ETF) Explosion and Looming Liquidations

[22:58–25:46]

• Forthcoming ETF Wave:

  • Over 100 new crypto ETPs expected to launch in 2026, but many predicted to close from lack of demand by 2027.
  • Bloomberg’s James Seyffart:
    • “Issuers are throwing a lot of the product at the wall now. Last year a total of 622 ETFs closed down.” (Host, 24:01)
  • Previous closures (including high-profile ETPs like ARK 21) driven by insufficient AUM.

• Spot ETF Impact:

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs (since Jan 2024) have drawn $57B; spot Ether ETFs (since July 2024) have raised $12.6B.

7. CF Benchmarks’ Case for a $1.4M Bitcoin

[25:47–32:40]

• Institutional Perspective:

  • UK-based CF Benchmarks (Kraken subsidiary) issues 42-page report modeling Bitcoin as a portfolio staple.
  • Host: “CF Benchmark views Bitcoin as a portfolio staple projecting 1.4 million per coin...by 2035, ultimately within the next decade.” (Host, 25:47)

• Three Scenarios Modeled:

  • Bear Case: Bitcoin captures 16–33% of gold’s market cap = $637,000/BTC by 2035
  • Base Case: BTC attains 1/3 of gold’s cap through rising institutional adoption = $1.4 million/BTC
    • “That's not even the bull scenario Broski's. But the kicker again is by the year 2035 in the new 42 page report.” (Host, 25:56)
  • Bull Case: BTC surpasses gold as dominant SoV = $3 million+/BTC

• Strategic Allocation:

  • Models suggest optimal portfolio allocation is 2–5% BTC.
  • As volatility declines, bitcoin’s appeal as a diversifier strengthens.

• Quote:

  • “Rather than treating Bitcoin as an outlier asset, CF benchmark analysis positions it as an asset that can be increasingly modeled to be a component of the long-term portfolios with valuation outcomes tied to adoption dynamics and macroeconomic conditions rather than the short term market sentiment.” (Host, 30:27)

8. Community Q&A & Closing

[32:41–35:31]

• Host encourages listeners to sound off on predictions, debates bear/base/bull cases (“Let me know your thoughts on some of those predictions. From the bear case, the base case to the bull and holl at your boy.”, 32:34)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Manipulation:

  • “I'm 100% convinced. We had another nice breakout today and instantly pulled back down by the bears, you know. So it's pretty wild.” (Host, 01:46)

• Inflation Skepticism:

  • “How can they dare say inflation is close to 2%? The cat is out of the bag. It's nowhere near.” (Host, 07:18)

• Quantum Resistance FUD:

  • “Quantum computing can't even factor 21, yet people are panic selling because they think it will kill Bitcoin.” (Samson Mow, quoted by Host, 13:36)

• ETF Inflows as Institutional Signal:

  • “ETF inflows feel like early positioning. As rate expectations soften, Bitcoin becomes a clean liquidity trade again. Politics set the mood, but the capital moves on the macro.” (Vincent Lou, 17:58)

• On the Threat from MSCI Ruling:

  • “Such a large outflow would put more selling pressure on the crypto markets which have already been trending downward for almost the last three months…” (Host, 20:41)
  • “A single balance sheet metric cannot reflect whether a company is an operating business.” (Bitcoin for Corporations, quoted by Host, 21:14)

• Long-term BTC Valuation:

  • “Its base case assumes broader institutional adoption...that probability weighted scenario implies a price of around 1.4 million per coin by 2035. Again, that's the base case.” (Host, 29:09)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Watch & Sentiment: 00:58–06:00
• Inflation & Manipulation Discussion: 06:01–11:30
• Quantum Resistance Upgrade: 11:31–18:20
• Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows: 18:21–19:23
• MSCI Treasury Rules & $15B Threat: 19:24–22:57
• Crypto ETPs & Liquidity Flood: 22:58–25:46
• CF Benchmarks $1.4M BTC Thesis: 25:47–32:40
• Community Q&A & Wrap: 32:41–35:31

Tone & Style

The episode retains a gritty, irreverent Bitcoin maximalist attitude with tongue-in-cheek commentary and phrases like “Holler at your boy” and “stack hard, stay sovereign.” The host combines technical market talk with skepticism for mainstream narratives, while quoting and engaging with the OGs of Bitcoin twitter and pronouncing bullish long-term confidence throughout.