2205: Bitcoin to $1M at 5% Adoption — Saylor Says $10M Is Possible

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC News

Episode 2205: "Bitcoin to $1M at 5% Adoption — Saylor Says $10M Is Possible"
Date: December 25, 2025
Host: Bitcoin News Alerts
Co-host: BNA Fam

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Overview

On Christmas Day 2025, the host delivers a festive but deeply analytical rundown of the current Bitcoin (BTC) market, focusing on market action, options expiry, ETF flows, record-setting derivatives volumes, ongoing crypto mergers and acquisitions, and—centrally—Michael Saylor’s bold price predictions for Bitcoin at different levels of adoption. The tone is high-energy, irreverent, and “no BS,” designed for hardcore Bitcoin enthusiasts. The episode’s North Star: Stay sovereign, stack sats, and keep your eyes on the long-term prize.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Watch & Sentiment

(03:23–07:07)

• Current Price Action:
  • Bitcoin was trading just above $88,000 on Christmas Day, after a “Santa rally.”
  • Volatility is low; the market is trading sideways, with minor daily movements.
  • BTC has struggled to break and hold above $90,000, facing recurrent selloffs.
• Market Metrics:
  • Total crypto market cap: $2.95 trillion.
  • Bitcoin market cap: Approximately $1.758 trillion.
  • Greed and Fear Index: 23 (Extreme Fear).
  • Block Height: 929,468.
  • BTC/$ Exchange Rate: $1 = 1,136 SATs.
• Recent trends:
  • Red targets on technical charts, strong sell pressure at major resistance.
  • “The only Bitcoin indicator with 100% accuracy 100% of the time”—the host’s tongue-in-cheek “Nipinator” and “Lickinator” indicators—point to possible further downside.

2. Imminent 30 Billion Dollar BTC Options Expiry

(07:07–10:12, 10:19–11:55)

• Key Event: $30 billion in BTC options set to expire on December 26, 2025.
• Market Positioning:
  • Most open interest is @ Deribit; CME follows.
  • Bulls have mostly missed out; many call options above $92,000 likely to expire worthless.
  • Bearish strategies heavily concentrated between $75,000–$86,000, but current price ($88,000) is above that range.
• Scenarios for expiry:
  • If BTC closes at $86K–$90K: Puts favored by $2.4B.
  • $90K–$94K: Puts favored by $1.5B.
  • $94K–$96K: Puts favored by $650M.
  • $96K–$98K: Even balance.
• Insight: This large expiry is expected to catalyze volatility, potentially setting the trend for early 2026.

3. ETFs Losing Steam—Big Outflows from US Institutions

(11:55–13:25)

• ETF Flows:
  • U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs have seen $825 million in outflows over the last five days.
  • “Since [Dec 15], every trading day has been red except December 17th, thanks to our Nipinator Lickinator indicator.” (Host, 12:44)
• Causes:
  • Tax-loss harvesting is identified as the principal driver; expected to subside after year-end.
• Geopolitical Insight:
  • The U.S. is now the biggest seller of BTC; Asia is the biggest buyer, highlighting a major shift in global BTC demand.

4. Derivatives Volumes Through the Roof

(15:21–17:16)

• Headline Fact: In 2025, crypto derivatives trading volume hit $86 trillion, averaging $265 billion per day.
• Exchange Breakdown:
  • Binance led with $25 trillion.
  • OKX, Bybit, and Bitget followed ($10.8T, $8.2T, $8.2T respectively).
  • These four accounted for 62% of volume.
• Market Evolution:
  • Shift from retail-driven high leverage to institutional hedging and ETF-based strategies.
  • Increasingly complex products and deeper interconnectedness raise risks—“You gotta pay the price to be the boss, and like Nipinator, eat the pasta sauce.” (Co-host, 17:01)

5. Crypto Mergers & Acquisitions Hit Record Highs

(20:28–23:43)

• M&A Record: $8.6 billion in deals in 2025—up nearly 300% from last year.
• Notable Deals:
  • Coinbase: Acquired Deribit ($2.9B), now central to the options market.
  • Kraken: Acquired Ninja Trade for $1.5B.
  • Ripple: Bought Hidden Road for $1.25B.
• Policy Environment:
  • Trump administration’s “pro-crypto” stance catalyzed confidence and regulatory ease, prompting traditional financial institutions to wade in.
• IPO Boom: $14.6B raised in 11 crypto IPOs (vs. $310M last year).

6. Strategy CEO (Fong Lee) Stays Bullish Despite Pullback

(24:03–25:32)

• Bitcoin Doldrums: Strategy’s stock dropped 8.5% after BTC’s correction to $80,000; still, they're unfazed.
• Long-Term View:
  • “You have to take a step back with the bitty. It’s unique in that it’s generational technology invention...It’s a singular asset class. I don’t think people understand exactly what it means in the short term, but they’ll figure it out over the long term.”
    —Fong Lee, CEO of Strategy (24:48)
  • Predicts more dovish Fed in 2026, more “risk-on” appetite, and increased bank and state-level Bitcoin adoption.

7. Michael Saylor’s Moon Math: $1M and $10M per BTC at 5–7.5% Adoption

(25:32–29:58)

• Saylor’s Thesis:
  • If Strategy (or any single entity) amasses 5% of BTC’s supply, price “would approach $1M per coin.”
  • At 7.5% control, BTC price could hit $10M per coin.
  • Quote:
    “It cost us $50 billion to get to 3.2% [ownership]. The next $50 billion will not get us 3.2%. It'll probably get me 1% or less.” (28:01)
• Supply Scarcity:
  • Despite massive institutional inflows, “85% of Bitcoin remains held by early adopters—diamond hands.”
  • Even with another $1 trillion inflow, “long-term holders could still control roughly 75%.”
• Strategy’s Plan:
  • Will slow BTC buying as natural scarcity tightens, not due to a policy shift.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Short-term Pain / Long-Term Gain:
  • “It's unique in that it's generational technology invention...It's a capital markets breakthrough that makes it a singular asset class.”
    —Fong Lee (24:48)
• ETF Exodus:
  • “You know I say we put the bears down like Old Yeller.” (12:04)
• Saylor's Supply Shock Math:
  • “If Strategy were to reach roughly 5% of the Bitcoin circulating supply, Saylor said the price would approach $1 million per coin…” (26:18)
  • “The next $50 billion will not get us 3.2%. It'll probably get me 1% or less.” (28:01)
• On Manipulation:
  • “There's absolutely some manipulation going on with bitcoin, so expect the big rally is all I'm saying—coming in 2026.” (14:38)
• On Shifting Demand:
  • “Asia is now the biggest buyer of the bitcoin, the doing not surprised. Watch out Trump, China's taken over.” (13:44)

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Important Timestamps

• 03:23: Market watch, BTC price/sentiment, technical overview
• 07:07: Bitcoin options expiry breakdown
• 11:55: ETF outflows analysis and U.S. vs Asia dynamic
• 15:21: Crypto derivatives record volumes and market structure evolution
• 20:28: 2025 crypto M&A record, major deals, and policy impact
• 24:03: Strategy CEO’s long-term optimism and institutional view
• 25:32: Deep dive on Saylor’s “$1M/$10M at 5%/7.5% adoption” thesis

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Conclusion: Tone & The Holiday BTC Spirit

With relentless optimism and humor, the host urges listeners to look past short-term price action and institutional teething pains. The true “spirit of Christmas,” per the show, is enduring faith in Bitcoin’s scarcity, adoption curve, and the unwavering march toward “life-changing” upside. In classic BNA fashion, the episode closes with both Bitcoin memes and sincere encouragement for listeners to “stack hard and stay sovereign”—season’s greetings, Satoshi style.

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For More

To join the live video streams and community Q&A, check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net. As always: Stack sats. Stay sovereign.

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End of Summary

Transcript

[Host]

Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart choice. Make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try [e-mail] Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations.

[Co-host]

Prices vary based on how you buy.

[Mrs. Claus]

Guys, thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree.

[Elf Bridges]

Zoe, this thing weighs a ton.

[Elf Drew Ski]

Lift with your legs, man.

[Host]

Santa.

[Santa]

Santa, did you get my letter?

[Elf Bridges]

He's talking to you, Bridges.

[Elf Drew Ski]

I'm not.

[Mrs. Claus]

Of course he did.

[Elf Drew Ski]

Right, Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here. He handles the nice list.

[Elf Bridges]

And elf, I'm six' three. What everyone wants is iPhone 17 and at T Mobile you can get it on them. That center stage front camera is amazing for group selfies. Right, Mrs. Claus?

[Mrs. Claus]

I'm Mrs. Claus much younger sister and AT T Mobile there's no trade in needed when you switch. So you can keep your old phone.

[Elf Drew Ski]

Or give it as a gift.

[Mrs. Claus]

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[Elf Bridges]

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[Co-host]

Kimber.

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[Host]

Visit t mobile.com welcome Bitcoin fam to number one Bitcoin pod. And Merry Christmas. Bitcoin just recaptured 88,000. We're over 500 on the day Santa rally. Send it in today's show I'll be breaking down the latest ta everything you need to know in the market including the big 30 billion options expiry which is officially tomorrow and how the market's likely to react. We'll discuss Bitcoin ETFs losing 825 million in the past five days as the US becomes the bigger seller of the BTC. Also crypto derivatives volume explode to 86 trillion this year in 2025 averaging 265 billion per day. We'll also discuss crypto mergers and acquisitions hit a record 8.6 billion this year as well as strategy. CEO says he's excited for 2026 despite the recent Bitcoin market downturn. I'll be explaining why as well as the latest from the Gigachad Michael Sailor, who says bitcoin could hit a million at just 5% ownership and 10 million at just 7.5%. Before strategy slows their buying, we'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Merry Christmas on behalf of myself, the.

[Co-host]

BNA fam and the Fed chair, Nipinator. It is that special day where we celebrate Christ his birthday.

[Host]

In fact, let's strike the gong and.

[Co-host]

Raise vibration and consciousness one gong strike at a time. Let's get it. Happy holidays, bitty fam. Bitcoin right above 88, 000 again, it's Christmas Day, December 25, 2025. Let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. I'll pull up my screen here.

[Host]

Just give me a second. I gotta do everything manually today. I don't have the stream deck. Apparently I gotta update it to use it, which takes time, so. But anyways.

[Co-host]

Yeah.

[Host]

How do I share my screen should be over here.

[Co-host]

Cool.

[Host]

All right, so as you can see, bitcoin in the bulk of the market. Back in the green, a little Christmas rally. Pumpy pump, which is nice. We got bnb, Tron Sui and Doge all correcting. And in the red, checking out coinmarketcap.com total crypto market cap today, barely back on the climb at 2.95 trillion. Bitcoin market cap $1.7 $58 trillion. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got double zero up 7% on the day. We got Pippen up 3% and World Liberty Financial up 5%. Checking out the crypto greed and fear index today we're at 23 extreme fear yesterday 24, last week of 17 and last month of 20 in extreme fear. Checking out the time chain calendar today is block height number 929, 468. And you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1136 SATs. So you know precisely what to do.

[Co-host]

You pick up the sats, put down.

[Host]

The gaps, pick up some bitcoin caps. You should be able to see here on your screen. This is the one hour chart. We've had very boring sideways trading action for the past couple of weeks. We've been stuck in a range, supposed to be a big breakout after tomorrow's options expiry. Bulls are saying to the upside, bears are saying to the downside, what else is new. I say be on the lookout for the nipador indicator the only bitcoin indicator with 100% accuracy 100% of the time. And that also goes for the nip NATOR liquidator indicator. Not only the nibinator indicator. Just saying but yeah you have a red target sitting at 96. 3 you see a right shoulder and the last couple of candles here in the hourly have been in the red.

[Co-host]

But we're maintaining at roughly 88 at.

[Host]

The time of the live checking out the four hour lots happening here. Rising wedge definitely suppression seems to always occur. Anytime we reclaim 90 we insta drop back down and there seems to be a massive sell off on the major exchanges.

[Co-host]

And we see this today on bance as well as we hit 88.

[Host]

But anyways there's a red target on the four hour sitting in 96. There's three bear scenarios from 84 all.

[Co-host]

The way down to 80,000 and ironic enough 80s.

[Host]

The current local bottom we hit a few weeks ago.

[Co-host]

Let me know if you think the bottom is in or do you think.

[Host]

We'Ll crack further Holler. Checking out the daily you're gonna notice very minuscule green candle on the day yesterday was in the green but barely very minuscule day before that big red candle a few days before that we.

[Co-host]

Had three green candles you know reclaiming.

[Host]

The losses when we bottomed out at.

[Co-host]

80 but nothing really too terrific here on the daily Checking out the weekly.

[Host]

We do got a rising wedge formation.

[Co-host]

Again we've had a lot of sideways trading action. Not really much happening. The experts are anticipating a big breakout here Friday tomorrow so we'll see what happens. No bull scenario on the weekly checking out the monthly you're also going to notice has been very lackluster Q4 one of the worst performing Q4s in Bitcoin history considering the year preceding the having that's the key element or caveat you're going to notice we had a massive novemb bear is one of the larger red candles we've ever had and October and we're in the December unless we get a real true Jesus Christ rally here in the final week of the year and the month then we're most.

[Host]

Likely to close in the red yet again if you know what I'm saying. But next up let's discuss this options X free because this is on everyone's mind right now. So as you can see here the headline reads bitcoin bears currently favored in the bitcoin end of the year 30 billion options expiry that's right, 30 billion words worth of options contracts are expiring tomorrow. That's why the analysts are expecting something big to happen. So as the year end bitcoin options expiry approaches, the bulls are increasingly skeptical about the turnaround of the price. A total of over 30 billion worth of open interest hinging on Bitcoin's 8am UTC price on Friday so first thing in the morning which will determine whether the bears remain in control after a 5 week consolidation near 89G's Drivet currently holds 80 of the aggregate open interest followed by Chicago based CME with 11. However, most of the 21 billion in call options are set to expire worthless on Friday as bulls were caught off guard after Bitcoin lost a hundred thousand.

[Co-host]

Psychological level back in November.

[Host]

Less than 6% of DEIT call options are positioned at 92 or lower at expre and one year ago today we were close to 100,000 so we are.

[Co-host]

Practically above a God candle away from where we were last year. So the like I said, a very lackluster Q4 we've experienced this year which leads me to believe the bull shall resume in 2026. Extended cycle theory but let me know your thoughts.

[Host]

Even excluding the 2 1/2 billion open interest at the strike price of 150 or higher, data shows heavy concentration from 100 to 125. Traders often use highly optimistic strike prices to collect volatility premium through covered call strategies, explaining the strong demand for levels as high as 200 GS. Still, while the bulls may have underestimated.

[Co-host]

How long it would take Bitcoin to reclaim 94, bearish strategies may have gone too far. Clustering bets from 75 to 86 so Bitcoin trades above 88, which is everyone.

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[Co-host]

Included with Prime Pretty much where we are now. By this time Tomorrow, more than 50%.

[Host]

Of the 7 billion input options on.

[Co-host]

Drivet will expire worthless. Even so, bearish positioning remains favorable as the longs of Bitcoin stay below 94. Yeah, we're pretty significantly below that right now.

[Host]

Investors are gradually becoming more cautious at after risks.

[Co-host]

I want to talk to Samson in the tech sector, particularly after the Oracle's.

[Host]

Debt protection cost surge the highest levels.

[Co-host]

The company just issued 26 billion in bonds this year.

[Host]

According to Bloomberg.

[Co-host]

Oracle shares remain 40% below their September all time high. Investors are pricing in the higher odds of stimulus measures from the US Treasury.

[Host]

Secretary Scott Bessant confirmed plans to issue.

[Co-host]

2000 tariff rebate for non wealthy individuals and early 2026. In addition, Trump has made it clear whoever replaces Fed Chair J Pal Nip Anator in May should prioritize lowering the interest rates. But you guys tell me if you think that will happen or do you think they'll raise them? 94 is the key level to decide the Bitcoin future momentum. So here are four probable scenarios for the year end Bitcoin options at dribbit expiry based on the current price trends. Number one 86 to 90,000 net result favoring the put instruments by 2.4 billion or we may be between 90 and 94,000 net result favors the put instruments of one and a half billion. Then we have the two scenarios more bullish. 94 to 96 naturally favoring the put instruments of 650 million or 96 to 98 balanced outcome between the call and the put options. And if you don't know now you know.

[Host]

But headline here Bitcoin's ETF lose 825 million past five days as the US.

[Co-host]

Becomes the biggest seller of the BTC.

[Host]

You know I say we put the bears down like Old Yeller. Data from the UK based investment company Far side confirmed on Christmas Eve net outflows from the ETFs totaled 175 milli. Bitcoin institutional capital saw no reason to wrap up for the holidays while the Wall street was still open this week. Far side shows the lengthly spate of selling continued right up until late pre Christmas U. S trading session with net outflows 175mil. The tally is similar to that of the past five trading days which each.

[Co-host]

Ended in the red.

[Host]

Good Lord for a total net outflow of 825 million. So since 12-15-10 days ago every trading.

[Co-host]

Day has been red except December 17th the one day we got the Nipinator Lickinator indicator which managed to attract net inflows of a almost a half a billion.

[Host]

And here you can see the largest ETF issuers from BlackRock Fidelity Bitwise ARC.

[Co-host]

And you're going to notice the trend. We've had a lot of red days unfortunately quoting analysts here most of the selling is due to the tax loss harvesting which means it'll be over in a week.

[Host]

Alex further noted Friday record options expiry.

[Co-host]

Event which we already did a deep dive into.

[Host]

He says this is temporary and institutions.

[Co-host]

Will be back to bidding soon. This chart underscored a recent phenomenon persistent.

[Host]

Bitcoin price downside during the U S trading sessions.

[Co-host]

Meanwhile the Coinbase Premium which measures the difference in price between the Coinbase BTC USD and the BTC USDT tether pair has spent much of December negative territory US is now the biggest seller of.

[Host]

The biddy Asia is now the biggest.

[Co-host]

Buyer of the bitcoin the doing not.

[Host]

Surprised Watch out Trump, China's taken over.

[Co-host]

Get stick to the game plan let's get going with this executive order already Brother you know that strategic bitcoin reserve one you may have heard about Trump the one you sign but anyways a negative premium reflects the lack of the.

[Host]

Buyer demand from the US where some believe the bitcoin needs to rediscover to have a chance of holding the higher levels.

[Co-host]

As exit pump points out here Bitcoin 9 days ago At 90G's Coinbase Premium.

[Host]

Became full negative has been persistent since then.

[Co-host]

Also the price can't break that 90 level. Well we have broke it but it instantly corrects because there's manipulation going on. There's always a sell off on the exchanges. Every freaking time we do it keeps rejecting from there. I think once it's reclaimed with the premium turning positive you go long and don't fade the rally. And the ironic part is precious metals.

[Host]

Like gold and silver are hitting all time highs.

[Co-host]

Even the US dollar is looking strong. But there's absolutely some manipulation going on with bitcoin so expect the big rally is all I'm saying coming in 2026.

[Host]

Now offering some hope trader bit bull.

[Co-host]

Argue the negative ETF net flows even on the 30 day moving average basis does not imply the final market tops he says price stabilizes first flows turn neutral and only then do the inflows return. So for now the data suggests liquidity is Inactive. A trend change will likely start with ETF flows turn in positive again before the price makes a strong move.

[Host]

And here's some more charts also noted the 30 day moving average net flows.

[Co-host]

Have been consistently negative since the the start of the infamous November.

[Host]

Yeah. Next story of the day headline here reads Crypto derivatives volume explode to 86 trillion in 2025 averaging 265 billion per day. That's right. Crypto derivatives trading volume search almost 85 trillion in 2025 averaging 264 billion per day. That's insane.

[Co-host]

That's a quarter trillion per day.

[Host]

According to the report by Coin Glass.

[Co-host]

Ban.

[Host]

You know Michelle and always constipated out there led the market with roughly 25 trillion in cumulative derivatives volume which is 29 of the global trading meaning nearly $30 of ever every hundred traded ran through the exchange. Practically one third of every dollar OkX buy bit bit get followed each posting 8.2 trillion and 10.8 trillion in yearly volume. These four exchanges accounted for about 62% of the total market share. Coin Glass said Institutional pathways expanded through the ETFs. Options and compliant futures help and drive structural rise for the CME which also already overtaken Bance and Bitcoin futures open interest in 2024 and consolidated its footing this year 2025. Here's the volume rank ranking of the centralized exchange volume in 2025.

[Co-host]

You can see banan clearly the winner.

[Host]

Then you got okx buybit bit get gate.

[Co-host]

Let me know which exchange you use.

[Host]

Whenever you buy, sell, trade crypto or.

[Co-host]

Do anything derivatives related if you do anything.

[Host]

Coin Glass said. Derivatives also grew in complexity 2025 the market moved away from retail led high leverage boom and bust models towards a mix of institutional hedging, basis trading and ETFs. This shift came with a cost.

[Co-host]

You gotta pay the price to be the boss and like Nipinator eat the pasta sauce. As deeper leverage chains and more interconnected positioning increase tail risks. And that's why we throw Nipinator in there. He knows quite well about the tail risk because he has a big tail. You know. Extreme events that erupted during 2025 and post stress tests of unprecedented scale on.

[Host]

Existing margin mechanisms, liquidation rules, cross platform risk transmission pathways, global crypto derivatives open.

[Co-host]

Interest sank to a yearly low of 87 billion after the deleveraging in the first quarter. Then surged through the middle of the year to a record 235.9 billion October 2nd. I'm sorry. Seventh, the sharp reset early Q4 raised more than 70 billion worth of positions roughly 1/3 of the total open interest. And a flash to leverage an event. Even after the shakeout year end open interest 145 billion still marked a 17% increase from the start of the year. Now comparing October's liquidation shock exposing these risks.

[Mrs. Claus]

Guys, thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree.

[Elf Bridges]

Zoe. This thing weighs a ton.

[Elf Drew Ski]

Brusky. Lift with your legs man.

[Santa]

To Santa. Did you get my letter?

[Elf Bridges]

He's talking to you, Bridges.

[Elf Drew Ski]

I'm not.

[Mrs. Claus]

Of course he did.

[Elf Drew Ski]

Right Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here. He handles the nice list.

[Elf Bridges]

And elf, I'm six' three. What everyone wants is iPhone 17 and at T Mobile you can get it on them. That center stage front camera is amazing for group selfies. Right Mrs. Claus?

[Mrs. Claus]

I'm Mrs. Claus much younger sister. And AT T Mobile there's no trade in needed when you switch. So you can keep your old phone.

[Elf Drew Ski]

Or give it as a gift.

[Mrs. Claus]

And the best part, Cart, you can make the switch to T Mobile from your phone in just 15 minutes.

[Co-host]

Nice.

[Elf Bridges]

My side of the tree is slipping.

[Co-host]

Kimber.

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The holidays are better. AT T Mobile switch in just 15 minutes and get iPhone 17 on us with no trade in needed. And now T Mobile is available in US cellular stores with 24 month bill.

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[Co-host]

The year was October. Coin Glass estimated the total force liquidation as a 20 member. We had the worst liquidation event in crypto history was on 1010. That was October 10th. We saw 150 billion in October being liquidated. A big chunk of the damage Obviously it was October 10th and the 11th liquidations top 19 billion. Most of the wipeout was on the long side with roughly 90% of liquidations coming from traders betting on the higher prices. Also Coin Glass linked the crash to the US President Mr. Trump announcing the 100% tariff on imports from China. That pushed the markets into risk off and ironic enough, that's when the government shutdown all began October 1st, shortly after.

[Host]

We hit the all time high October.

[Co-host]

6Th and we've been correcting since. Nip Anator indicator in full effect. Merry Christmas to the Bitty Fam. That's the signal of all signals.

[Host]

Next story of the day. Headline here reads Let me close this one out. Crypto Mergers and acquisitions hit record 8.6 billion this year According to the Financial Times.

[Co-host]

You know we went from the dumpster.

[Host]

To the Trumpster Bitcoin Executive order Bitcoin Strategic Reserve United States of America. Come on now. The crypto sector reportedly saw a record 8.6 billion worth of deals this year as the crypto friendly Trumpster administration brought the confidence to the crypto Focus Mergers and Acquisitions Financial Times reported Wednesday 267 deals were inked in the crypto industry up to Tuesday at an 18 increase from last year. The 8.6 billion in deal value is nearly a 300 jump from last year. We saw 2 billion in deals and the growth is expected to continue next year. 2026 Coinbase made the biggest acquisition of the year with 2.9 billion purchase of the crypto options trading platform Drive it so I didn't realize that Coinbase owns Drive it then the biggest ever acquisition in crypto and Dribbit is the largest.

[Co-host]

With these options I believe it's 80 of the market.

[Host]

Other major mergers noted were Kraken's 1 1/2 billion acquisition of the futures trading platform Ninja Trade.

[Co-host]

I never even heard of that one and it's worth was worth one and a half billion. So I guess that belongs to Kraken. And then Ripple's 1.25 billion deal to buy the crypto friendly prime broker Hidden Road. I've never even heard of that one. President Trump opened the US to crypto enacting a raft of regulation deregulation policies, drop in regulatory lawsuits that have given traditional finance institutions confidence to invest in the sector. Also a massive year for crypto iPodOS. Financial Times reported 14.6 billion was raised worldwide from 11 crypto initial public offerings, a major jump compared to the 310 million raised from just the four crypto public debuts last year. Some of the Most in anticipated IPOs of the year were Coin Desk parent bullish which raised 1.1 billion, the stablecoin issuer circle Internet group which raised 1 billion, and then Gemini which raised 425 million. As you know, founders are the what did they call the Winklevoss twins then? Diego Oso, partner of the law firm Clifford Chan, said traditional finance players and crypto companies were actively looking to buy up the firms for their licenses, especially those in line with the EU's mica laws, which he said would continue into the new year. Demand for stablecoin companies have also predicted to continue 2026 with new regulatory regimes forming in the U S of the UK we have Charles Kerrigan, partner of the law cms, who shared that the companies will spend a lot of money to remain compliant with new licensing regimes. He also predicted that new crypto laws in the US Would spur traditional finance companies to get involved in the industry, which would also drive mergers and acquisitions. The major year for crypto deals has come as the market cooled off in the latter part of the year with Bitcoin falling 30% from the peak of the 126 high, which was achieved on October 6th.

[Host]

We've been downward since bitcoin traded flat over the past day below 88 on the, you know, cusp of where we're at right now. And yeah, we'll see how the year ends. But there's the latest and greatest what's happening. Let me know what you think is likely to happen here for the final.

[Co-host]

Week of the year.

[Host]

Holler Next story today, Bitty Fam, the latest. I'm still petting the nipinator here. Merry Christmas. Strategy CEO Fung Lee says he's excited for 2026 despite the bitty market downturn. We're talking the CEO of Strategy remaining optimistic despite the firm's massive losses after bitcoin plunge to 80,000. That's actually a more accurate bottom strategy. Invest heavily, as you know in bitcoin. They're the largest holder of corporate holder of the world, close to now 700,000 bitties. The company shares did drop 8 and a half percent amid the dip for the crypto market. In a new interview, Fong Lee, their CEO, explains why he thinks bitcoin will continue to bring in returns despite the current downturn. He says you have to take a.

[Co-host]

Step back with the bitty.

[Host]

It's unique in that it's generational technology invention. It's a macroeconomic innovation. It's a capital markets breakthrough that makes it a singular asset class. I don't think people understand exactly what.

[Co-host]

It means in the short term, but they'll figure it out over the long term.

[Host]

He anticipates the coming year to be bullish for the Bitty says the short term impacts of the benchmark crypto are just like those of the other risk assets. Quoting them here over the long term, if I look at 2026, I'm pretty excited. I think we're going to see a more dovish Fed. I think we're going to see more risk on buying and we enter the midterm election period. I think bank adoption, state adoption is going to increase. So I'm pretty excited about the long term. And now for our feature story of the day. Speaking of strategy, Michael Saylor, their founder.

[Co-host]

Says bitcoin could hit a million at just 5% ownership and could hit 10 million per coin at 7.5 ownership. So let's break this down and shout out to the Gigachad Mikey Sailor. Merry Christmas Broski.

[Host]

Sailor says Strategy plans to slow his bitcoin accumulation only once the company controls five to seven and a half percent of the bitcoin total supply, which they're.

[Co-host]

Not too far away from doing, outlining a long term ceiling driven by scarcity rather than strategy. In an episode of the Breakdown with this guy David Gok the Stein. What an interesting name, right?

[Host]

The strategy exec chairman stated ownership thresholds.

[Co-host]

Of the scale would coincide dramatically higher with the bitty prices.

[Host]

If Strategy were to reach roughly 5% of the Bitcoin circulating supply, Saylor said.

[Co-host]

The price would approach 1 million per coin, roughly 11x from here.

[Host]

And at 7 1/2% he suggests Bitcoin.

[Co-host]

Would trade closer to 10 million per coin.

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[Co-host]

Send it.

[Host]

A move he attributed to structural supply.

[Co-host]

Constraints rather than speculative demand. The biddy price was trading this morning still around 80. So yeah. Up, down, up down. Left, right, left Right. B A B A select start. That's the infinite money glitch Contra Infinite Men on the Nintendo NES original system. Nintendo Bros. Know what I'm saying? But anyways let me know your thoughts. Their accumulation math let's break it down.

[Host]

Strategy has so far acquired 3.2% of.

[Co-host]

The bitcoin total supply spending roughly 50 billion over the past five years. Sailor said that the pace of accumulation will be coming increasingly difficult to sustain as the prices rise as well as the supply tightens. Quoting them here it cost us 50 billion to get to 3.2%. The next 50 billion will not get us 3.2%. It'll probably get me 1% or less. That's right because the price is going to continue to go up which means less and less bitties. So let me know if you agree or disagree with the prediction. And do you think he'll actually achieve the target? I have no doubt in my mind that he'll eventually hit those targets because everything he said he would do he's been pretty successful at to say the least. Now the scarcity of the long term huddlers. Sailor stated institutional participation has so far had a limited impact on the bitcoin long term holders. Despite an estimated 100 billion of inflows from asset managers such as BlackRock and 50 billion from strategy itself. He said 85 of the Bitcoin remains held by the early adopters. Diamond hands where he at. And even with the additional trillion dollars of the institutional inflows Sailor estimated long term holders could still control roughly 75% of the supply. So he framed that concentration as a structural feature of the network rather than a temporary imbalance. He also says strategy will continue buying Bitcoin where possible but acknowledges accumulation will eventually slow down under its own weight suggesting the firm holdings are likely to peak within 5 to 7.5% range not because of the policy shift but because scarcity itself imposes a natural limit. And if you don't know now you know. Let me know if you agree disagree with the giga. Chad Michael Saylor and when do you feel will likely hit this target? 1 million? 10 million. Holler and I'll read your comments out loud. Merry Christmas and welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream.

[Host]

I'll stick around for a few minutes and remember we will stream all weekend as well through the holidays. Same bit time, same bit channel.

[Santa]

I wanna thank bitcoin that bought the hope thanks to the Jesus light that makes it glow. But I wanna thank you Satoshi. You make it feel Like Christmas.

[Co-host]

It.

[Santa]

Barely took a BTC by to realize we're gonna be a classic for all time. I wanna thank you satoshi you make it feel like Christmas Sweet bitty stacking made with molasses My heart skipped and I reacted I can't believe that this is happening like a present sent from God Bitcoin pump singing hallelujah Stars are shining on us too I wanna thank you satoshi you make it feel like Christmas Thought I was done for thought that Fia was about to die but you came along I swear you saved my life and I wanna thank you satoshi cause you make it feel like Christmas Ho ho ho ho. Sweet bitties that made with molasses My heart skipped and I reacted can't believe that this is happening like a present sent from God Bitcoin pumps singing hallelujah Stars are shining on us too I want to thank you satoshi you make it feel like Christmas I never thought I'd find security like this But I found up forever in that very first purchase. I want to thank you satoshi you make it feel like Christmas O.

[Host]

I.

[Santa]

Want some thank you satoshi you make it feel like Christmas Satoshi makes it feel the ding ding rising star spirit of Christmas.

[Host]

And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the q and a. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode Hoddle.