2212: RIP Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle — 2026 Marks the Start of a New Era

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Bitcoin News Alerts | Episode 2212 – "RIP Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle — 2026 Marks the Start of a New Era"

Date: January 1, 2026
Host: Bitcoin News Alerts
Featured Speakers: Michael Sailor, Max, Stacy, Joe from Vanta
Theme: The End of the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle and the Start of a New Era (2026)

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Episode Overview

In this New Year's Day episode, host Michael Sailor and guests discuss seismic shifts in Bitcoin’s historic price patterns, homage the (possibly dead) 4-year cycle, and explore what 2026—and beyond—holds for Bitcoin. Topics also include recent major moves by Tether, ETF flows, macroeconomic factors, and the growing institutionalization of BTC. The episode is fast-paced, packed with raw Bitcoin maximalism, and features poetic contributions from Max and Stacy championing sound money, sovereignty, and ongoing adoption.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2026 Market Recap & Technical Analysis

• [01:26–04:00]
  • Bitcoin closes 2025 at $87,496, down 6% from previous year, marking a historic first annual post-halving red candle.
  • Market cap hovers near $3 trillion, with BTC dominance at $1.7T.
  • Notable altcoin performances: Cardano (+8%), Pepe, AVAX, Filecoin (+18.5%).
  • Fear & Greed Index remains at "Extreme Fear" (Score: 20).
  • Technicals: Sideways action dominates, but TA signals (RSI bullish divergence, Bollinger squeeze) suggest an imminent major move.
  • Quote, Michael Sailor ([02:30]):
    “We reclaimed 3 trillion total market cap. Today, we're back down a bit … Not a bad way to start off the new year after a horrendous Q4 2025.”

2. "RIP to the Four-Year Cycle": Historical Patterns Break Down

• [07:00–12:00; 27:27–33:41]
  • 2025 closes red—first time in post-halving history; incites debate on whether the four-year cycle (halving, bull, bear, recovery) era is over.
  • Simon Dixon and Cipher X argue prior cycles were products of liquidity, psychology, and participant dynamics, not immutable law.
  • The rise of institutional products (ETFs, custody) and macro factors are fundamentally shifting Bitcoin’s market rhythm and behavior.
  • Quote, Cipher X ([08:40]):
    “Cycles were never a law of nature. They were a liquidity pattern. Different macro, different participants, different constraints. What broke wasn't the bitty. What broke was the assumption that timing stays easy.”
  • Quote, Simon Dixon ([27:30]):
    “RIP to the Bitcoin four-year cycle. It was fun. Now we have to part. In 2026 we enter a new era. Remember, only bitcoin in self-custody is real bitcoin.”

3. On-Chain & Macro Overview of Previous Cycles

• [10:50–12:00; 27:27–30:45]
  • Comprehensive breakdown of past cycles:
    • 2011–2014: Early parabolic gains; 2013 bull of +5537%, 2014 deep winter.
    • 2015–2018: Strong gains again following halving; 2017 classic bubble, 2018 correction.
    • 2019–2022: Echoes of past, but slightly less explosive; major run in 2021.
    • 2023–2026: Outlier—Q4 2025 sees a multi-month, 30-40% drawdown; “first red post-halving year.”
  • Simon Dixon’s chart analysis credits each halving event with a psychological supply shock; cautions that the “self-fulfilling prophecy” may be breaking down.
  • Quote, Simon Dixon ([30:40]):
    “As 95% of the Bitcoin is mined already … the four-year cycle may no longer rule. Focus on owning more bitcoin this month than you did last month.”

4. Institutional Accumulation & ETF Ecosystem Shifts

• [13:30–19:00]
  • Tether buys another 8,888 BTC on NYE; now the fifth largest BTC wallet globally.
    • Tether’s reserves include BTC, gold (116 tons, top 30 globally), and US Treasuries.
    • Rating agencies (S&P) cite transparency and concentration risks.
  • Major public companies now hold massive BTC treasuries: MicroStrategy ($672k+ BTC), 21 Capital, Meta Planet.
  • U.S. crypto ETFs:
    • $32B poured in 2025, despite a market correction.
    • BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) dominates with $25B inflow, 5x more than Fidelity.
    • Spot Ethereum and Solana ETFs show growing but smaller inflows.
  • ETF analyst Balchunas (Bloomberg):
    “If you can do $25B in a bad year, imagine the flow potential in a good year.” ([17:38])
  • Warning that ETF market will become saturated; many products may dissolve by 2027.

5. Global Regulatory and Macroeconomic Backdrop

• [19:06–25:00]
  • Macro factors:
    • Anticipated liquidity injections and interest rate cuts by the U.S. Fed could reignite BTC price action through risk-asset appetite.
    • Divided analyst opinion: Some predict new highs, others (e.g. Michael Turpin) forecast a potential $60k bottom in Q4 2026, arguing a bear market could persist.
    • U.S. political outcomes (GOP sweep) will shape regulatory environment and institutional appetite.
  • Russia’s Sberbank issues its first crypto-backed loan to a major mining company, using a proprietary custody solution.
    • Quote, Central Bank Governor Elvira ([25:45]):
      “The digital ruble offers many more opportunities for smart contracts and we want to … move on to the mass implementation … after we work out all the details.”

6. Bitcoin Maximalism & Self-Custody: The Only Way

• [27:27–33:41]
  • Strong thematic focus: ETF and derivative BTC is a mere “IOU.” For real sovereignty, insist on self-custody—“not your keys, not your cheese.”
  • Simon Dixon’s pronouncements: Ignore short-term fluctuations, refuse institutional temptations, and focus on stacking BTC.
  • Quote, Simon Dixon ([30:45]):
    “Your job is to resist their temptations to borrow against it, hold it in a treasury company or chase yield only to be margin-called so they can capture your bitcoin gains.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Death of the Four-Year Cycle
  "Rip to the four year cycle. We enter a new era…[it] was a self-fulfilling prophecy based upon supply psychological changes. It was real. It changed.” – Michael Sailor, paraphrasing Simon Dixon ([27:30])

• On Institutional Accumulation
  "Tether's CEO Paolo doing the big things ... becoming one of the biggest active bitcoin holders." – Michael Sailor ([13:45])

• On Self-Custody
  "Only bitcoin in self custody is real bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF is not BTC … if you don't hold it, not your keys, not your cheese." – Michael Sailor ([27:32])

• On Macro, AI, and the Future
  “Technology—AI changes everything. Those who go deep and run their own local LLMs will be genuinely blown away by what's [possible] … your current job is unlikely to exist by the end of the decade.” – Simon Dixon ([31:40])

• On Sound Money Philosophy (Poetic Segment)

  • Max and Stacy deliver a powerful spoken-word riff ([33:41–37:52]):
    • “Fiat is blasphemy, profanity, insanity, God acting humanity… Bitty samurais cutting through depravity with cryptographic clarity” – Stacy ([34:13])
    • “Stacking bits for my breakfast, stacking bits like it’s Tetris, we are a different kind of army…” – Max ([34:29])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:26] – Start of market recap and Bitcoin’s close for 2025
• [04:00] – Detailed TA (technical analysis) and RSI/Bollinger band insight
• [07:00] – The four-year cycle discussion begins
• [10:50] – Historical analysis of past cycles
• [13:30] – Tether’s major BTC acquisition and implications
• [16:00] – U.S. ETF flow overview; BlackRock dominance
• [19:06] – Macro environment, Fed liquidity, institutional moves
• [25:00] – Russia’s Sberbank issues crypto-backed loan
• [27:27] – Feature: Simon Dixon’s deep dive on end of the four-year cycle
• [33:41] – Max & Stacy poetic segment championing Bitcoin adoption and philosophy

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Closing Thoughts

The episode marks a pivotal Bitcoin New Year, as the “four-year cycle” narrative appears broken—ushering in greater institutional participation, massive on-chain shifts, and a call by Bitcoin OGs and maximalists to double down on self-custody and personal sovereignty. The tone throughout is high-energy, irreverent, and faith-driven in the future of Bitcoin.

Call to action: Stack hard, stay sovereign, and “remember—only bitcoin in self-custody is real bitcoin.”

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Transcript

[Michael Sailor]

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[Michael Sailor]

2026 is here. Bitcoin is in the green. 2025 is behind us. Let's get it. In today's show I'll be breaking down the latest TA as Bitcoin RSI demands a breakout. As exec says rip to the four year Bitcoin price cycle. Also tether snaps up another 8888 Bitcoin now the fifth largest Bitcoin wallet on the planet. Also investors funnel 32 billion into the US crypto ETFs despite fight this year end pullback. I should say last year's end pullback. Massive liquidity injections to boost the bitcoin price this year. In 2026 I'll be giving you the breakdown as well. As Russia's biggest bank issues their first crypto back loan to a bitcoin mining company. Then we're going to be discussing in detail RIP to the bitcoin four year cycle. It was fun but now we have to part 2026 we enter a new era. Remember, only bitcoin in self custody. Israel Bitcoin. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more. New Year's Day 2026. Let's get it. Salute to a new year, a phenomenal year and to multiple new all time highs. Parabolic run up to 1.1 million send it. But now let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. Pulling up coin 360. You can see bitcoin in the green which is nice considering we've been correcting and trading sideways for weeks. Currently Bitcoin is up 1% on the day. I'll take it Ether up 3/4 of a percent looking to regain 3,000. Cardano a big gainer today up 8%. Pepe, you can see it doing big things here today. Avax. Some of the classics like ETH Classic doing quite well and and naturally there's always some correct in including BNB and Monero. Ironic though is trading at $420. Happy 420 for the Brosis. But checking out coinmarketcap.com yesterday we reclaimed 3 trillion total market cap. Today we're back down a bit. Currently 2.98 trillion. The Bitcoin particular market cap been stuck at a 1.7 trillion doll range for quite some time. Checking out top 120 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got the file coin up 18 and a half percent followed by Pepe up 18% followed by Story up 13%. So the alts are having a bit of a run here on New Year's Day. Let me know which alts, if any, you're bullish on. For the bull. Holla at your boy. And checking out Crypto Green Fear Index. We've been stuck in extreme fear for a very prolonged period. We're still here for the New year, unfortunately, currently at 20. Extreme fear yesterday 21, last week at 23 and last month a 23. Jordan's numbers. Just saying. And checking out the infamous time chain calendar. We're currently block number 934 71. And you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1132 SATs. So you know what to do. You pick up the SATs, put down the gats, pick up some bitcoin caps from my man sergio [e-mail] and right now the average block time is 10 minutes and 6 seconds. We're gonna get a readjustment in roughly six more days. I think it was January 7th. Tick tock. Next block. Let's get it. But there you go, yo. Not a bad way to start off the new year. So just saying, after a horrendous Q4 2025. But next up we gotta dive in if you know what I mean. Let's get into it. Pulling up some of the live charts. We'll do a little live chart action. Jackson, Satisfaction, Bo Jackson. But, but first here's a post from plan B. Happy 2026. Bitcoin closed 2025 at 87,496. So we can round up four bucks and say we had an annual close at 87,500. Down 6% from the 93. 381 at the end of 2024. So we did close roughly six thou. I'm sorry, close to from 87 to 93. I don't know. Is that like 7,000 shy of where we were a year ago? So it was definitely a corrective year. Down roughly 6%. So shout out for to plan B for that. But now let's pull up the live charts. You can see the one hour. We are starting to make another climb slowly but surely. See lots of green candles and bullish momentum. We do have a red target on the screen sitting in 96. We really need to break above 90. It's kind of like the line in the sand where every time we break through we insta correct. We've done this so many times here recently so hopefully we can finally break through, reclaim 100k and get back where bitcoin belongs in price discovery, if you know what I mean. Especially considering the four year cycle is dead like the Fed according to the Fed chair Nipinator keeping them nipinating four hour chart. A lot of action Jackson. Here you can see a 96 target in the for the bull bear Scenarios range from 80 to 84. 80 being the local bottom we hit in Q4 after hitting the all time high of 1263. And that was back on October 6th quite a bit ago. Checking out the daily you're going to notice a green candle for the new kickoff for the new year which is nice. Yesterday we closed the year in a red which is a great way to put an end to that bloodshed if you know what I'm saying. But hopefully upwards and onwards from here. You know like Buzz Lightyear said, up, up and away. I think that was Buzz Lightyear. I may be that one up that may have been handyman, you know from in Living Color for all I know. I'm just saying. But checking out the weekly looky lookie here. Bitcoin barely in the green for the new week we do get the first weekly close of 2026 on Sunday. I shall be streaming each and Every day checking out the monthly, you're going to notice another red candle close, uh, for December. So we had three consecutive red monthly candle closes, the October, the November, December, with the November being the worst of them all. And there you go. Next up, let's dive a little deeper here. You should be able to see Bitcoin RSI demands breakout. As an exec says, RIP rest in pieces to the four year bitcoin price cycle. The doing the doing. Here's a one hour chart. I already gave you the live analysis, so skipping forward, analyst wrote new year, fresh start. We locked in the three day bullish divergence right on top of the key support. This analyst by the name of Jelly referred to the bullish divergence playing out on the RSI indicator, which is the relative strength index on the three day time frame. Bitcoin looking good for the upside this quarter. Can I get an amen? Now we have quant data 21 anticipating Bitcoin price volatility as a result of the low weekly RSI record narrowing on the Bollinger bands. The indicator shows Bollinger bandwidth derivatives setting records throughout the fourth quarter, implying that a major upward move was due. There is only one other occasion that the daily Bollinger band width has squeezed this tight with weekly RSI below a 40. That was back in January of 2023. And we all know what happened to Bitcoin from there. The ding ding, ding. So the bitcoin four year cycle meets a new era Ever ever ever welcome. Bitcoin price performance of 2025 ended on a low. Completed its first red 12 month candle in the post having year. So this is a first for the bitty. This fielded more discussion over whether the four year bitcoin price cycles are still relevant. Cipher X row Bitcoin closed its post having here in the red for the first time ever. Cycles were never a law of nature. They were a liquidity pattern. Different macro, different participants, different constraints. What broke wasn't the bitty. What broke was the assumption, apparently as he wrote here, that timing stays easy.

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[Michael Sailor]

Get [e-mail] forever and this actually gives you some insights from 2011. You can see green 2012 year the having first one green then the year after that. Having was one of the largest parabolic run ups in bitcoin history. Went up over 5,400% in 2013 and then 2014 corrective you know year 2015 pretty stagnant. Then 2016 next having green year preceding the having. You know history rhymes with the previous having and it rose 1300%. Then we had a winter in 2018 and then we had a bull in 2019. 2023 hundred gains 2021 we continued in the bull you know and of course, 2020 being the having year and then 2022 was bare, 202023 barely in the green. 2024 year of the having most recent last year in the green I should say now two years ago actually now that we're in 2026 but 2025 we supposed to have seen fireworks and for the first time ever negative the year preceding the having. So it's a first. But there you go yo continuing on here rip to the four year cycle and I'm actually going to save this analysis from Brian Simon Dixon for later because he gave us a very detailed post on X so we'll share that towards the end of the show. But also there's 150000 target according to sailor strategy CEO. He says I would suggest given more and more doors are opening for the people to invest in bitcoin. We're going to test the 90 in the coming weeks start breaking upwards. Let me know if you agree or disagree. And where do you think the pre low bitty likely to go next Holl at your boy. Happy New Year. But anyways, the show goes on. As they say, next story. Brothers and sisters out there. Tether snaps up another 8,888 of the bitties. Now the fifth largest Bitcoin wallet on the planet. That's right, it's a lot of bitties. And that was on New Year's Eve, by the way. Increasing its disclosed bitcoin stash by more than 96,000 to close out the year. Their CEO Paolo doing the big things. USDT stablecoin issuers become one of the biggest active bitcoin holders. Placed in the company's bitty address as the fifth largest behind Bance, Robin Hood and Bitfinex and ranking second amongst privately held bitcoin treasuries. Naturally it has to be Michael Sailor in number one pole position with strategy. The move is a part of the pattern of Tether's quarterly bitcoin accumulations. The company has been funneling up to 15% of its earnings and into bitcoin every quarter. The latest batch was worth more 780 million at the time of the acquisition. Tether's gold and reserve mix Bitcoin is not the company's only hard asset bet. Tether also purchased 26 tons of gold in the third quarter of 2025 which was a larger quarterly acquisition than any reporting central bank. So they're purchasing more gold than the central banks. Big. Big. That's pretty big. And places total holdings at 116 tons amongst the world's top 30 gold holders. So again, fifth largest Bitcoin holder address and amongst the top 30 gold holders in the world. That mix of U S treasuries, bitcoin and gold has drawn scrutiny from rating agencies. The agencies right. And the S P recently cutting USDT score from constrained to weak. What over transparency and concentration risks. Also former BitMe CEO Arthur Hayes just blaze raised red flags over the growing bitcoin and gold share of reserves. Tether's bitcoin holdings have dropped occasionally throughout the year. After its first quarter purchase it had over 100,000 of the bitty. Its fluctuating bitcoin balance led pundits to speculate the company was selling the BTC. Now also the CEO denied the claims and said it had been contributed to 21 which is the tether backed company company in which Jack Mers is the CEO. Also backed by the likes of Canter Fish, Gerald, you know they just went public recently. 21 Capital held 43,514 Bitcoin on new Year's Day and Apparently some of those bitties obviously must have came from tether ranking it as the third largest bitcoin bag amongst public companies. So they launched and instantly became the third largest. That's insane. Now the year end allocation comes in the middle of the broader corporate bitcoin land grab. Japan listed Meta Planet also added over 4,000 bitcoin on taco Tuesday adding to the treasury of 35,000 bitties. Strategy also continue to raise equity and debt to expand what is already the largest bitcoin treasury pushing its stack above 672,000 of the BTC's. Next story of the day. The show goes on. Brosis, you know next headline fam investors funnel 32 billion into the US crypto ETFs despite the year end pullback U. S investors poured over 31 billion into the U S crypto ETFs just last year despite the crypto market stumbling towards the final months of the year. Yeah, the entire fourth quarter U. S spot Bitcoin ETFs took the lion's share of the investor interest accumulating 21 billion in net inflows in 2025. However, it marks a fall from the 35 billion net inflow seen in 2024. Spot Ether ETF saw a fourfold increase of the inflows of 2024 attracting almost 10 billion of investor money in the year. Also Ether ETFs launched in July of 2024. They came months after the Bitcoin one went live in January, meaning 2025 was the first full year the ETFs could be traded then. Speaking of spot Salana ETFs were amongst the new crypto products that hit the US market in 2025 tallying 765 million, which isn't that big of a deal in my opinion. Institutional adoption has been supported by the more crypto friendly administration. Naturally the Trump administration, all bullish, including Baron. I say send it. We need time travelers on our side on the crypto team Black Rock strengthen its dominance of the crypto ETF market 2025. I expect nothing less from Lawrence Fink. So if you're watching Larry, go home, get your shine box. And with its I shares, Bitcoin ibits seeing a staggering 25 billion worth of the inflows by the end of the year. IBIT flow tally now five times larger than fidelity. Here we go. Bloomberg ETF analyst Mr. Bal Tunes noted mid December that Ibit ranked sixth in net inflows amongst all the ETFs trailing only brought to broad index funds of the Treasury Bond ETF, he wrote here. If you can do 25 billion in a bad year, imagine the flow potential in a good year. That's right. Note in Bitcoin slight fall from 93,000 at the start of 2025. So removing ibit from the equation, the nine other spot Bitcoin ETFs all combined 3.1 billion of outflows for the year. Most other spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a marginal increase at a net inflows, while the grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF bled roughly 4 billion. I mean, what else is new? Meanwhile, Black Rocks iShares Ethereum Trust continue to dominate the ether market despite failing to record an inflow over the last 12 trading days. ETH A's inflows currently sit at 12 billion, while the Fidelity Ethereum Fund and Grayscale round the top at 2.6 billion and 1 1/2 billion, respectively. Glass no data shows the spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have shown little to no renewed demand over the past month. Hence I want to talk to Samson suggesting these crypto products may see us slow start in 2026. More crypto ETFS to come, of course, but not all will will stick. Industry analysts expect an explosion of the.

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[Michael Sailor]

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[Michael Sailor]

See terms number of crypto ETPs approved this year under the SEC's new generic listing standard, which no longer requires each applicant to be assessed on a case by case basis. Crypto Asset Management A bit wise tip that more than 100 crypto ETFs would launch this year, a prediction Bloomberg analysts agreed but said many wouldn't last beyond 2027 due to lack of demand quitting safe art here. We're going to see a lot of liquidations and crypto ETP products might happen at the tail end of 2026 but likely by the end of 2027, ultimately ending potentially the bear of this cycle. But we shall soon see we may be on an extended bull cycle for the rest of our lives. Just saying. Massive liquidity injections to boost the Bitcoin price this new year 2026. That's right, the Bitcoin price may rise in 2026 as the easy monetary policy injects massive liquidity into the markets, according to Bill Barheit, CEO of the crypto exchange Wallet Abra through other analysts also sound more cautious though. Speaking to the Schwab network, Bar Height said he expects a ton of the liquidity injections from the US Fed next year as the policymakers continue cut the interest rates, potentially reviving quantitative easing and boosting the risk assets such as the pretty little bitty going up forever, Laura quitting them here we are seeing quantitative easing light right now. The Fed is starting to buy its own bonds. I think demand for the gum in debt is going to fall significantly next year along with the lower rates. All of this bodes well for all assets, including the btc. Regulatory clarity of the U S and growing institutional investment combined with the lower interest rates likely means the bitcoin of the broader crypto market are in for a great few years. Damn straight. Only 15% of investors expect an interest rate cut after the FOMC meeting in January, down from the 23% respondents pulled back in November, according to the new latest data from the CME Group. As outlined right here. The bullish price forecast was countered by early bitcoin adopters and analysts who say that 2026 will be another down year for bitcoin and that bitcoin has entered a bear market that may last for months to years. Now, 2026 will likely be a bad year for the price, according to early bitcoin investor Michael Turpin, who forecast bitcoin could bottom out at 60 in the last quarter of 2026. I just want to vocalize I do not agree with this bear analysts, but we're entertaining. A new Federal Reserve chair is expected to ease the interest rates, but better macro conditions may offset the results. And anytime someone says may it means flip a coin because he has no clue. I just want to point that out as well. Anything other than the GOP sweep in the midterms will cripple further regulatory friendliness. And there you go, yo. The odds of the GOP sweep at a prediction market poly market are currently 19%, with 47% of the traders betting on each political party controlling one chamber of Congress. Then you got Joe Doll. What a gay name. The General Council of the NFT Marketplace Magic Eden only in crypto previously shared that the balance of power always flips at the US midterm elections. And as a bonus, I want to point out I watched a new Logan Paul fraud video. And Logan Paul launched a fraudulent exchange and doing fraudulent things with his rare Pokemon Illustrator. And it's like a 38 minute video exposing him again. You think the guy learned his lesson after the Crypto Zoo fraud scam? He's doing it again. There's some marketplace he co founded called Hyper Liquid. And he put his rare Illustrator, you know, it's like a $5 million Pokemon card he paid 5.3 million for. And he offered sh. You know, when you could take an asset and tokenize it and then everyone can own a piece of this rare card. He's supposed to hold it for the people. And he gave up 51% possession of it to put it on the marketplace to raise the money in which he did, they raised like two and a half million dollars. And then he scammed everybody and said, you guys, ultimately it's mine. I bought it back even though he lost 51% ownership. And so now he's auctioning it, trying to get like, I don't know, hypothetically like $14 million. And he all the Hyper Liquid ended up being a piece of exchange where everyone's like requesting refunds. Nothing works or is functional. It's deja vu from Crypto Zoo. So it's like Crypto Zoo 2.0. So I'm very disappointed. Logan and I just wanted to call him out for that. We don't slay dragons. We're dragons that slay another 100k. Another 100k, another 100k. That's 300k underway. On the lane, on the way. Okay, here we go. Next story out of Russia. Russia's biggest bank issues the first crypto back loan to a bitcoin mining company. That's right, we're talking about Spur Bank. They issue the country's first corporate loan backed by crypto, extending financing to one of the nation's biggest bitcoin mining firms, Intellion Data. In a pilot deal, Inteleon pledged digital assets at Mined as collateral, marking a significant moment in the integration of the digital coins into traditional banking practices in Russia. Spur bank did not disclose the size of the loan, but you got to assume it's substantial considering it's the largest bank. Right. The amount of the crypto uses collateral or the loan's duration underscoring the transactions experimental rather than a full commercial Rollout. Rollout. The key to the deal's risk management was the use of the Spur bank proprietary digital asset custody solution RA Token, which holds the pledge crypto securely for the duration of the loan, ensuring the collateral cannot be accessed or used outside the terms of the agreement. That's right. This move comes amid Russia broader efforts of utilizing digital assets following the blacklisting from the Swift system. As you know, Swift rules the world of the legacy financial system and it blows donkey balls and it's about to be taken over by the B In a recent spirit speech of the association of Russian Banks Elvira what an interesting name. The governor of the Central bank of Russia said the pilot for the digital ruble was going quite well and that there was growing interest in smart contracts amongst the Russian banks, businesses and gummies. She says the group of clients consists of 1700 individuals from 15 banks from about 30 companies participating in the pilot that the expansion of the program will come at a later date. Quoting her here Elvira now we see the interest of the smart contracts from the banks, businesses and the government. The digital ruble offers many more opportunities for the smart contracts and we want to make this area one of the key ones, one of the proprieties of the development of this project. All this of course requires additional discussion and of course preparation. Therefore, our intention is to move on to the mass implementation of the digital ruble the a little later than originally planned. Namely after we work out all the details of the pilot and consult with the banks on the economic model that the most attractive to their clients for businesses, for the people, we'll be able to name a new date, just say Bitcoin. It'll be very attractive to all your clients, Elvira, mark my words. And she ends it with this. I like to emphasize the project is ongoing, will be expanded in both terms that a number of the participants and the range of operations. And if you don't know now, you know now for our feature story of the day regarding RIP to the Bitcoin four year cycle. Here's a very insightful couple of posts.

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[Michael Sailor]

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[Michael Sailor]

See terms from Simon Dixon. I'm going to read it to you. I'm going to share the chart and we'll do a deep dive. He wrote RIP to the Bitcoin four year cycle. It was fun. Now we have the part. In 2026 we enter a new era. Remember, only bitcoin in self custody is real bitcoin. I want to stop right there. It's so true. Bitcoin etf BTC is not btc. It's ultimately an iou. It's ultimately a derivative, it's ultimately a receipt that you have exposure to it but someone else is holding it which is the institution which then uses another institution which is called the custodian to hold bitcoin. And if you don't hold it, not show keys, not show cheese. You've heard it before. Now check this out. This chart speaks volumes regarding the four year cycle. First let's look at the upper top left box. From 2011 to 2014. In 2011 pre little bitty rose 1500%. In 2012, the first year of the having, it continued to climb 186 that year. 2013, the first year preceding the having. After the first having we climbed the whopping 5537%. And then in 2014 we hit the winter and finally corrected 58%. Now let's look at the top right. From 2015 to 2018, 2015 we climbed 34%. 2016 was the year of the second having in Bitcoin history we climbed 125%. And then in 2017, a year preceding the having, the year JV inpinator discovered the BTC can see we rose 1349. I remember like yesterday it was from a thousand at the start of the year to 20,000 by Christmas time. You know, massive run up, very similar to the previous four year cycle. Then in 2018 we entered winter corrected 74. So you can see the similarities between the 20112014 cycle and 2015 and 2018. Now let's look at the bottom left part of this know whatever we call it from 2019 to 2022 similar again in 2019 we gained 94, 2023 bitcoin having and we went up 308%. And then 2021 year preceding the having we continue to climb. That's when we hit the all time high of 69,000 achieved in I believe November of 2021. And we hit 57 thou or we went up 57%. Then 2022 we enter winter cracked it 64. 5%. Now for the bottom right from 2023 to now entering 20262023 we gain 154. 2024 year of the fourth having we gained one hundred and twenty one the outlier can you spot it? 2025 instead of having a massive gain we actually corrected for the first time in history for the year preceding the having and we corrected 6%. We had a very lackluster Q4. We went negative between 30 and 40% just for the fourth quarter which leads us into 2026 which I'm a firm believer will have the extended cycle someone wrote as explained by this person, there never actually was a four year cycle. We conned ourselves Simon says I disagree. Every having event the psychology changed and it was a self fulfilling prophecy based upon supply psychological changes. It was real it changed. Now as 95 of the Bitcoin is min mind already. Now here's a deeper dive on what he has to say regarding 2026 predictions. You guys ready with the moss spaghetti and the meatloaf? Perfect Bitcoin. Ignore the price focus on owning more bitcoin this month than you did last month. If the price goes down, celebrate yet get to buy more of the bitcoin with a fiat. If the price is up by the end of 2026, which I predict it will be, recognize that what likely means the four year cycle has been broken and the market has entered a new phase. There will only ever be 21 million bitties as long as we continue to self custody it. Of course derivatives could you know it's IOUs. They're paper bitties. The financial industrial complex will do everything it can to custody as much of that fixed supply as possible. Precisely what we're witnessing with the institutions. Your job is to resist their temptations to borrow against it, hold it in a treasury company or chase yield only to be margin calls so they can capture your bitcoin gains. Precisely what happens to most folks famous Take heed technology AI changes everything. Those who go deep and run their own local LLMs will be genuinely blown away by what's impossible. Everyone else will be building or living outside centralized control grids that will radically change their lives in every way. Your current job is unlikely to exist by the end of the decade. The AI stock bubble will not pop. They will bail it out if needed. Now regarding the macro. The dollar weakens relative to foreign currencies. Gold, silver and bitty at the same time yields of the the 10 year 30 year are likely to end up above 4.5 to 5% as the Fed lowers the short term rates. Despite this, equity markets continue to grind higher and the US real estate generally trends upwards. By contrast, the UK will likely experience a property market correction accompanied by severe financial distress. None of this will happen suddenly. It'll unfold slowly. Most people won't notice how profoundly it reshapes the world until it's already well underway. Geopolitics the world becomes more multipolar. The more regionally focused the US becomes, the closer the Middle east moves towards stability benefit in Asia, Middle East, Africa, such as the global South China has already won the trade war. Nothing stops that train. China will not go to war with the US over Taiwan, Venezuela, Iran. Paradoxically, the closer the country is aligned with the us, the more likely it is to experience civil unrest or perhaps be drawn into external conflict. All by design. If there is another conflict with the us, Israel, Iran, it will be short lived and theater like the last 12 day war, the Russia Ukraine war continues as financial industrial complex seeks to vassalize more of Europe I'll continue to follow the money and share where I think we're heading each week. Happy New Year. I mean very profound post there. I tend to agree with the bulk of what he has to share. Let me know your thoughts and especially regarding this four year cycle and is the four year cycle as we know it dead? Holl at your boy and let me know and welcome everyone to the Q and A segment of the live stream. First stream of the New Year Baby.

[Max]

Baby take me to the beach KA is going to preach expanding the bitcoin reach Max is on the leash. This isn't a vacation, it's a demonstration. Sun hit the green like a signal flare or orange lenses Salt in the air Max hits the stage and the crowd leans in. He speaks with passion and conviction. He inspires adoption of the bit while flipping banker scripts. This isn't noise, this is our voice.

[Stacy]

Yeah Fiat is blasphemy, profanity, insanity, God acting humanity Fiat priests preach lies manufactured gravity Time chain on the rise Co coded truth finality Bitty samurais cutting through depravity with cryptographic clarity I declare alchemy in El Salvador Stacking stats from my.

[Max]

Stacking bits for my breakfast Stacking bits like it's Tetris we are a different kind of army it's the Max and.

[Stacy]

Stacy second Annual Golf Invitation Golf and pickleball and bed calling we're rolling and living it Sound money only no suits, no strings Kaiser on the mic Feel.

[Michael Sailor]

The passion he brings Max.

[Mint Mobile Advertiser]

Max.

[Michael Sailor]

Max.

[Joe from Vanta]

Max. Max.

[Michael Sailor]

Stacy.

[Max]

Stacy. Boom, boom boom Just buy it, just.

[Stacy]

Do it we got that bitcoin swagger Proof of work, no slacking Together we are strengthened and we're firmly positioned like minded on a freedom mission Investing with wisdom we're bull headed Ride or dies with diamond hands and true grit Being a fire brew cocoa Max in my grip Low to time preference train never see me slip Swinging for the moon but we're patient with it.

[Max]

Bu Kelly's aesthetics confidence tested Bitcoin still underestimated, still undefeated Give it time, it's been proven Pressure train code from survival to sovereignty Watch the nation explode Bitcoin office is transforming an economy like bosses do Judge it by the fruit watch the system grow Rules just tap in keep stuck stacking them from San Salvador down to El Zante Wave signal cuts through noise.

[Stacy]

Even pundits can't save Citadels and permaculture chest moves every move intentional create compete by BTC Growth will be exponential no we can see yeah we do what we can Code is free speech Brick house built on the plan Sipping Coco Max in fact in actuality sipping Coco Max no tax municipality sipping Coco max in tax McAfee getting killing himself they whacked them actually Satoshi achieved the unstoppable thing Solve the double spin and showed the world there's no such thing as an impossible win Success of Bo Kelly.

[Max]

The philosopher king Orange shades Orange made OG players new to the gamers innovative thinkers Bitcoin shades and Bitcoin bling All gathered with a BTC team Max and Stacy what a pair 2 bitcoin OG spreading bitcoin news since 2000 Stacy said it first off on air Hey I trailblazers Digital organ trail path makers Bitcoin strategy Bitcoin is your majesty we can just do things BBO Stacy said we can look at that Renaissance 2.0. No FUD on the fairway sound money swings Golf balls humming off the TE Overwork in its trajectory Pickleballing like Tom Petty Free falling shot calling like huddle Gangsters ball in patience Position placement competition Poker room night life with royal flush wishes fifth level bitty holding cheese already debt traps exposed Engineer dependency paper wealth dissolves in synthetic liquidity Hard cap law restores trust and credibility Private keys unlock sovereign immunity Borderless freedom Digital divinity Volcano.

[Stacy]

Blocks forcing sacred stability Energy baptizing proof of work immutability Max spoke the truth with fearless audacity Stacy framed the proof of game theory perspicacity Bitcoin country rising from force calamity El Salvador wrote the proof in reality from chains to choice proclaim sovereignty no imf, no suits, no monetary authority, Law written in math, incorruptible integrity forged in the fire, undeniable clarity what? Max spoke loudly, Stacy proved mathematically no.

[Max]

Banners, no flags, no debt to defend Just rules that don't bend and blocks that don't end. We're not spectating, we're not visiting, we're participating? El Salvador is a freedom rule? We're changing the world, there's no doubt When I spectate. When I spectate. El Salvador is a freedom rude? We're changing the world, there's no doubt.

[Michael Sailor]

And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.