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2233: $2.9M Bitcoin Target Emerges as Supercycle Math Gets Serious
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match Limited by state law not available in all states. How many times have you wished you could be in two places at once? With wix you practically can. Wix's website builder is packed with powerful AI tools to make running your business online easier. Build a full site just by talking with AI, get an AI agent to manage your sales and marketing, or work like a 10 person team even if it's just you. So you don't need superpowers to get everything done, you just need Wix. Try it now for free at wix.com welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. In today's show we'll be discussing Bitcoin do dollar fueled macro bott traders dismiss an 88, 000 bounce. Also gold just hit a record high surpassing $5,000 per ounce for the first time. Further diverging diverging from the BTC price action. Also Sailor Strategy did announce a purchase of 2932 bitcoin amid the market sell off as we anticipated yesterday with the Sailor tracker. This means roughly 264 million dollar acquisition. Also crypto funds see one flows the biggest since November of 2025. Meta Planet lifts 2026 revenue outlook despite 680 million bitcoin impairment. Also CZ rules out a return to Bance and predicts a 2026 bitcoin super cycle. And speaking of a Bitcoin super cycle, we also have a looming $2.9 million bitcoin price prediction from massive asset management giant Vaneck. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is POT episode 2233. I'm your host JV alongside Fed Chair Nipsey. You can see bitcoin maintain it at 87500 at the time of the live. Let's get right to coin 360 little overview of the market here in our market watch. So yeah bitcoin correcting currently but barely. We could be back in the green you know in New York minute but you can see ether and the bulk of the alt are actually starting to pump. So I think Bitcoin's about to flip green any moment and checking out coinmarketcap.com market cap still at 2.97 trillion. Ultimately same as yesterday. Bitcoin market cap 1.75 trillion. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got river pump and Algo leading the pack. Checking out the crypto greed and fear index. Today is a 20, an extreme fear, so we're continuing to go lower. Yesterday was a 25, last week of 44 and last month at 23. And checking out the infamous time chain calendar. Today's block height 933, 873. And you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1142 sats. So you know what to do. Pick up the Saspa down the gaps, pick up some bitcoin caps from a man Sergio over@bitcoin caps.net but let's continue yo pulling up some of the live charts and we'll do a little analysis for you guys. You should be able to see here brought to you by Trading View via Coinbase Exchange charts. You're going to notice bitcoin looking to make another move up but it's like we are struggling to get back above the moving averages here on the one hour. We are correcting obviously here on the day, at least for the past three hours. But very early this morning we did get a bit of a pump but now we're taking right back down and it's been very boring to say the least. We've been stuck in a range between 85 and 90 for quite some time so we're looking to break out of this range. Checking out the four hour though. Let's see if it loads here. There we go. You're going to notice maybe early this morning. Late last night we had some pumpage which is nice but back three cascading down candles on the four hour. So I guess the last 12 hours. So practically since was that maybe since 1am my time it's been correcting. So there we are. Not much happening significantly below the moving averages on a four hour but they say went in down to zoom out. Check out the daily and ironic we do still have a green candle for the past 24 hours though it's minuscule. Yesterday big red cracked of candle and before that four or five days of sideways trading. No particular targets in sight on the daily. Checking out the weekly, you do notice it is in the green but barely for the new week it's only one day in as we did get a weekly close significantly in the red as you can see on the screen right there. But checking out the monthly as well. You're gonna notice unfortunately what was once in the green has just flipped to the red. So if things don't change and we don't get some sort of a strong bounce and continue with our upwards price action, we will get a January red candle close which will mark four months consecutively of bear, which is something else to say the least. And especially with the government shut down threats occurring and poly market odds yesterday were like 77 of a government shutdown. That's not good for bitcoin. But ironic enough, gold has been crushing it. It just smashed over 5,000 which we'll cover here shortly. But first let's dive a little deeper. Bitcoin do dollar fueled macro bottom traders dismissed an 88 bounce. We already looked at the live chart so let's get right into the analysis. Analyst here Killa, what a interesting name. I believe the maximum extension is likely around 89 to 91 before further downside Then we had Bit bull eyeing the declining US dollar strength as a Q for bitcoin to put in a characteristic long term low as he is very crucial chart for the Bitcoin huddlers also shared a chart of the US dollar index, the DXY. Whenever the DXY has dropped below 96 in the past, Bitcoin has bottomed. Even the two biggest rallies in Bitcoin happened when the DXY went below 96 and now the DXY crash seems imminent. We all know what that means and it's a great sign of the times on the strength of the dollar as well when you have all these other assets, for example precious metals right now breaking out, hitting all time highs including silver and gold. Now dollar weakness form just one of the many macroeconomic hurdles for risk asset traders on the day with Japan, US trade tariffs and the Fed interest rate meeting all on the radar. And that's a big topic of conversation we've been covering in the pod the yen carry trade which has been unwinding. Now a further problem came in the form of the potential US government shutdown. Yeah, you could say that. Again the situation bears resemblance of last autumn's protracted fiscal standoff. According to QCP Capital they forecast crypto markets will likely chop around in the near term pending the greater clarity. Of course when there is unclarity, no clarity, I should say no. Claire Gare Mr. Gensler and people don't know what to expect. They always anticipate the worst. It causes chaos and creates more FUD fear, uncertainty and doubt. And it's not good typically obviously for risk on assets like the Bitty Now Bitcoin Avoiding a structural breakdown according to another analyst I'll quote here, who says despite the sharp decline, the Monday recovery suggests underlying demand remains intact. Longer term investors appear more willing to absorb supply at the lower levels, viewing the more or the move as a correction driven by positioning and macro shocks rather than a breakdown. In Bitcoin's structural outlook, this helped the price stabilize and rebound, even if the recovery has so so far been measured rather than decisive. The analyst also went on to share Looking ahead, Bitcoin's near term trajectory will likely depend on whether the broader market conditions stabilize. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, Monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations.
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Your software needs to be compliant to win deals, but you also need your engineers focused on building your product, not pulling SOC2 evidence. Enter a third option. Make Vanta your first security hire. Vanta uses AI and automation to get you compliant fast, simplify your audit process and unblock deals so you can prove to your customers that you take security seriously. Plus, Vanta scales right along with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. That's why top startups like Cursor, Linear and Replit use Vanta to get and stay secure. Don't sock block your best engineer. Set them free and get compliant fast with vanta. Get started advanta.com or whether buyers can.
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Buy on the recovery without renewed selling pressure. So for now, the sharp sell off and subsequent minor rebounds serve as a reminder that even in a more mature phase of the cycle, Bitcoin remains highly responsive to shifts and sentiment, liquidity and risk appetite. But you guys let me know if you think the bottom is in when we hit the 80000 level I think that was was that still in October? I know October October 6th was the current firm it126 3 I know on 1010 October 10th it was the biggest liquidation event in crypto history. And then I just know the bear continued. It may have been in November because November was I think the worst overall month we have seen in crypto. I think we should I forget but 20 30,000 in a single month is crazy considering how many years did it take for Bitcoin to go from zero in 2009 from the Genesis block to 20,000 which was 2017. That was eight years to go from zero to 20,000. And just in the month of November we lost 20,000 plus. That's crazy. And that's supposed to have been our most bullish month of the year. And so I blame the government shutdown and now it feels like deja vu all over again, you know. But here we are. But all right, yo, next story of the day. Speaking of gold, it just hit over 5,000 an ounce which is an all time high, further diverging from the btc. Also, silver has been making new all time highs as well. So check this out. Gold price top 5,000amid the rise in geopolitical global trade tension, Bitcoin fell to 86. We did recover a bit since then. Gold hit $5,080. That's the current ATH following 17% gain already this year. And according to the gold price, traders are flocking to the precious metal amid fears of a potential US Government shutdown. Exactly what's fueling it. And uncertainty over the Trump admin escalated tariff threats which we've been covering. The Kabisi letter wrote a likely government shutdown just added fuel to the fire for precious metals. Trade tensions have also increased with another weekend round of tariff threats as US President Trump threatened Canada with a 100% tariff over a China trade deal. That's some crazy 100%. Gold beat ether to the 5,000 milestone, naturally closing the polymarket bet placed early October. Which asset would reach it first? ETH prices tank below 2800 on Sunday and are more than 40% down from their August all time high, which was just shy of 5,000. Silver also just peaked at a new all time high per ounce, $107 for the first time in history, already up 48% this year. So precious metals are making them run. Bitcoin lost 1.6% on the day, erasing all the gains it made so far this year. And as I mentioned already on the monthly candle on the charts, we're back in the red for the month of January, which is a bummer. I truly hope we can break out of this spell. You know what I mean? But Bitcoin now 30% below its October peak, which was 126 achieved. That was October 6th. As the divergence between digital assets and gold continues to expand. How many of you have gold or precious metal like silver investments do? Let me know. Here's a good chart. You can see gold is in the blue, silver is the yellow, and the teal or light blue is the bitcoin coin telegraph. In the future, if you're going to use a color chart, you might as well make gold. The gold color. It's like everything's opposite. It should be, but anyways, gold is rallying. Cryptos are down because the increasing likelihood of the U S government facing a shutdown end of the month. It is kind of ironic to me though why precious metals are pumping from the shutdown but not crypto. Crazy, right? Additionally, markets are pricing in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining current interest rate levels given the economy has been showing stronger growth and employment numbers. Normally in uncertain times, capital moves towards the safe haven assets such as US Treasuries and gold. But because of the potential government shutdown and Trump's recent tariff threats over Greenland, global investors are less inclined towards treasuries and more towards gold. But anyways, check this out. Michael saylor strategy buys 2932 bitcoin amid the market sell off. That's right. Strategy world's largest public bitcoin huddler disclosed another fresh bitcoin purchase as prices slid during the broader market sell off. Strategy acquired 2932 bitties for 264 million last week, according to their filing with the SEC which he just announced here today. The acquisitions were made at an average price of 90 GS per BTC with Bitcoin starting the week above 93 and briefly tumbling below 87 thanks to the tariff fears. Thanks Trump. The purchase brought Strategies total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 BT TC purchase for 54 billion at an average price of 76, 000 per coin. Strategy's latest purchase is notably smaller. Yeah, the previous one was like 2.1 something billion and the one before that was 1.25 billion. So this is just a fraction of those buys, you know. Yeah, one was 22000 Bitcoin and then it was 13000 Bitcoin. So this is one of his smaller ones. But so far this month strategy has acquired 40000 Bitcoin just for the month of January. 40000 Bitcoins. You know what you got to start doing, Michael? The over the counter start purchasing bitcoin spot market. We need the pump, you know. Good lord. Should have been buying spot a long time ago, sailor. Exceeding the combined purchases over the previous five months from August to December. So definitely ramped up their purchasing, highlighting a sharp acceleration and buying activity since the start of the year. The buy comes the bitcoin has fallen more than 6% for the recent high, highlighting strategy preference to purchase smaller amounts of Bitcoin in periods of market weakness. You think it'd be the opposite? Buy the dip Sailor Strategies co founder Sailor in 2024 pledged to keep buying bitcoin at peak prices. He said he'll buy the top forever, while the company has since appeared more reluctant to make the larger purchases during the volatile market conditions. In the meantime, MSTR is trading down to $163, down 12 from the January high of 185 bucks. Next story of the day Crypto ETP 1.7 billion worth of outflows for the exchange traded product show they've been bleeding. That's just during this week. This is the biggest since mid November 2025, and that was a hell of a November if you remember one of the worst months in crypto history, quoting James Butterfield. Dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts, negative price momentum and disappointment that digital assets have not participated in the basement trade yet have likely fueled these outflows. Bitcoin and Ether led the outflows from the crypto funds last week with withdrawals of about 1.09 billion and 630 million, respectively. While the outflows reflected broad negative sentiment across the market, some alts buck the trend. XRP and SUI saw outflows 18mil and 6mil. Salana saw record inflows of 17 million. Chain link funds also saw minor inflows of 3 million. Short Bitcoin ETP saw 500,000 inflows, contradicting the negative market sentiment. Regardless, it indicates sentiment has still not improved since October 10, 2025. That was the big crash. If you guys remember. Outflows were spread across several issuers last week. Black Rocks Fun leading the way with 951 million. Fidelity and Grayscale investments follow with outflows 469 million and 270 million, respectively. Some issuers, however, managed to post gains, but pretty minuscule in the overall grand scheme of things. Regionally, outflows were concentrated in the US totaling 1.8 billion total assets under management and crypto Funds fell to 178 billion, down from 193 billion at the end of the previous week. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive, you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states.
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Your software needs to be compliant to win deals, but you also need your engineers focused on building your product, not pulling SOC2 evidence. Enter a third option. Make Vanta your first security hire. Vanta uses AI and automation to get you compliant fast. Simplify your audit process and unblock deals so you can prove to your customers that you take security seriously. Plus, Vanta scales right along with you, backed by support. That's there when you need it every step of the way. That's why top startups like Cursor, Linear and Replit use Vanta to get and stay secure. Don't sock block your best engineer. Set them free and get compliant fast with Vanta.
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Get started@vanta.com so outflows are continuing at the time being next Story of the day Meta Planet lifts 2026 revenue outlook despite 680 million Bitcoin impairment that's right, Konichiwa Tokyo listed Bitcoin treasury company Meta Planet raises 2025 revenue and operating income forecast, flagging a large non cash bitcoin write down while sharply increasing the guidance for 2026. The company expects the 2025 revenue of 8 billion Japanese yen, which is 58 million USD, and an operating income of 40 million, according to their Monday notice. Despite an improved operating outlook, Meta Planet fluctuation forecast an ordinary loss of 632 million and a net loss of almost 500 million. That's a half a billion. Both figures are driven by the bitcoin impairment loss of about 680 to 700 million, which is a non cash write off of the value of the bitcoin holdings at the end of the year prices. That leaves Meta Planet on track to post a deep annual loss for 2025 despite stronger underlying operating performance when it files its full year results February 16, which is around the corner, Meta Planet managers said. Q4 2025 Revenue from the bitcoin income generation business is expected to significantly exceed initial project projections, lifting full year revenue in that segment to about 55 million, up from 40 million previously announced, the filing explains. The impairment stems from the quarter end market to market accounting and is a non cash accounting adjustment reflecting period end price fluctuations and has no direct impact on the company's cash flows or operations. But at the same time, Meta Planet Bitcoin treasury business continuing to grow Bitcoin holdings rose from 1,700 bitcoin for the end of 2024 to 35,000 bitcoin the following end of 2025 so they literally went from less than 1,800 bitcoin to over 35,000, with bitcoin yield per diluted share reaching 568% for the year. In other words, the amount of the bitcoin back in each diluted share increased almost 600%, a metric the company uses to track the bitcoin growth on a per share basis. And because of the difficulty of the forecast and the prices of the biddy, the company does not provide guidance for ordinary income or net income for this new year 2026. However, forecast revenue of around 103 million, operating income 73 million for this year, with almost all that revenue expected from the bitcoin income generation business business with selling, general and administrative expenses of about 29 million. Meta Planet publishes daily data on its bitcoin holdings, unrealized gains and losses and related metrics. And as you know, that's the Japanese strategy. There you go. Next one CZ rules out of Return to Binance, but predicts a 2026 Bitcoin super cycle. And also in the headlines I spotted Vaneck unveils their 2.9 million Bitcoin target as a result of the super cycle. So we'll entertain this first and foremost. Cz, the Binance founder, was just interviewed in Davos recently where they all met up and it says here CZ actually posted it. A candid conversation from Davos on a prison pardon and what freedom means going forward. A full interview on CNBC on Squawk Box and you can watch the video. It's about 13 minutes, but I'll give you some of the highlights of what he has to share. So yeah, CZ ruled out returning to the crypto exchange Binance, the largest crypto exchange despite a pardon from President Trump, opening the door for it to be possible. And I think that's a smart move to distance himself from that position, just as Sailor did, as there's advantages to it, you know. Also, CZ told Squawk Box on Sunday that it is his understanding the pardon means the former restrictions are completely lifted but shot down. Any suggestions going back to Binance? And again, I think that's smart and strategic, he wrote. I haven't really needed to go back. I didn't really want to. I thought it was pretty good way for me to step down and exactly away from Binance after seven years at the time was very painful. I didn't like it. But after you get used to it, I don't think it's good for me to go back. I think we should leave room for the other strong leaders to grow. Exactly. And especially when you're worth hypothetically $80 billion. Do you really want to be the CEO of any company? Oh hell no. But anyway, CZ pleaded guilty November of 2023 to failing to maintain an effective anti money laundering program at Banance and was later sentenced to four months in prison, making him the richest man to ever go to prison. Pretty crazy, right? Trump pardoned CZ in October, but he already did the sentence, which drew scrutiny from lawmakers over the Binance ties to the Trump link crypto ventures regarding Trump stablecoin USD 1 but Trump denied knowing who CZ was. I don't buy into that whatsoever. But anyway, CZ said that Binance hasn't missed the beat since he stepped down with two capable CEOs at the helm. Wow, there's two CEOs increase in several growth metrics including users and market share in December open letter last year the Exchanges leadership Richard Tang and Zhao's long term partner Yeehi. I don't know if that's a Michael Jackson reference or what, but the user base had climbed over 300 million. Damn. And the total product trading volume for the year was 34 trillion. That's right. Now the crypto market cap is like 3 trillion ish. So this is more than 10x the entire market cap, just the volume, which is mind boggling to me. Holy, he says. I just thought look, they don't need a backseat driver today I'm still a shareholder, adding that he is just a pretty passive shareholder and today I just want to give them advice. And again, g move. That's what he's supposed to do. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.
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Your software needs to be compliant to win deals, but you also need your engineers focused on building your product, not pulling SOC2 evidence. Enter a third option. Make Vanta your first security hire. Vanta uses AI and automation to get you compliant fast. Simplify your audit process and unblock deals so you can prove to your customers that you take security seriously. Plus, Vanta scales right along with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. That's why top startups like Cursor Linear and replit. Use Vanta to get and stay secure. Don't sock block your best engineer. Set them free and get compliant fast with Vanta. Get started@vanta.com coming in the new year.
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Crypto prices and sentiment have been on the decline. However, the CZ predicts the BTC would experience a super cycle in the next 12 months. Along with others in the space, he has speculated its four year cycle might be dead like the Fed. It is what it is, it's economics. A super cycle. If you're not familiar with with it an extended period of outsized growth indicating a major shift underpinned by the strong fundamentals over many years. Normally bitcoin follows, as you know, the four year cycle. But experts are saying the four year cycle as we know it is dead. Let me know if you agree or disagree. I tend to believe we're in an extended cycle and the four year cycle as we know it is no longer a thing because so many things, things have shifted since then, including the institutional adoption, the nation state adoption, the strategic bitcoin reserve and everything we've been witnessing, which we talk about each and every day, seven days a week here on the pod. But anyways, diving a little deeper, we did discuss the Binance founder discussing a super cycle incoming. But VCK also just unveiled a 2.9 million bitty price prediction. So let's talk about that because to me that's kind of exciting. Van Eck unveils bullish price prediction crypto ETF issuer Van Eck predicted the Bitcoin to reach 2.9 million by 2025. Obviously they're off the mark there and we're in 2026. And also let's verify some of this stuff, the report by Van Eck and the report is here, so let me open it in a new window. Matthew Siegel and Patrick Bush outline. This is the base case. 2.9 million dollar base. In your face. Well, open it up here. Yeah, it's actually written January 8th, so that must have just been a typo. And they must mean let's verify it. I think they mean 2.9 million. Yeah, here's more realistic. 2.9 million by 2050, but that's based on a 15 CAGR. Let me get back into this and see if I miss anything. They had a bear case, their bull case. They say the base case was 2.9 million. But naturally I'm skeptical of Yahoo Finance. So let's get right to the horse's mouth. This is vanex actual website vanek.com. matthew Siegel, Head of the Digital Asset and Patrick Bush. And this to me seems more realistic to come from an asset manager. So yes. Executive Summary Bitcoin Capital Market Assumptions for Long Term Allocators Our analysis suggests Bitcoin functions as a convex low correlation reserve asset with a 15 base case meaningful portfolio efficiency benefit. So this is a 25 year time horizon. Right now is 2026. Again this was just published and 2050 would mean the target date. And that's just a base case ex expected return of 15% A or C A G R and then they break down the mathematics of it. Here let's get right into it. Capital market assumptions represent long term x expectations of asset class returns volatility correlation that inform strategic asset allocation decisions. Our 25 year CMAs for Bitcoin are designed for institutional allocators evaluating its role within diversified portfolios. Our framework separates secular evaluation drivers and cyclical development considerations for deployment, providing both long term return assumptions near term implementation while near term price movements remain influenced by by liquidity conditions and leverage positions. Our framework is anchored in the long duration adoption and balance sheet dynamics. And here we get to the the numbers. The secular valuation thesis again. From 2026 now to 2050, standard equity valuation models fail to capture the utility of a non sovereign reserve asset like Bitcoin. Our valuation framework instead models Bitcoin presentation into two specific total addressable markets, the global medium of exchange and the central bank reserve assets. In our base case, we project bitcoin to reach 2.9 million per coin by 2050. Now considering it's 2050, I have to say why so bearish? Vanek but that's only implying a 15 compound annual growth rate. Naturally that can go exponential and we can hit these targets a lot sooner. Way sooner. Decades sooner. Just saying. But there's the math. This 15% annualized return base case is predicated on two structural pivots. And a reminder, this is base case. This is not the bull scenario. Bull scenario would be way more bullish as far as a prediction. And speaking of bullish predictions. 53 million. Now we're talking. This is hyper Bitcoinization scenario where Bitcoin captures 20% of the international trade and 10% of domestic GDP. Sounds more realistic to me. JV and NIP C stacking the BTC. The implied value per coin would reach 53.4 million. That's what a 29% CAGR. This scenario requires Bitcoin to achieve parity with or surpass gold, which I am a firm believer it will as a primary global reserve asset. And with gold just breaking out above 5,000 an ounce, it just achieved a 35 trillion market cap. That means Bitcoin will surpass that 35 trillion market cap, overtaken the gold constituting nearly 30% of the world financial assets. Let's go. So there you go. I wanted to give you the bull and the base and I just hooked you up. Let me know which one you think is more realistic and welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live Stream. Shout out 406 bulletproof tipping in the Rumble. Much appreciated fam. This gong strike is for you. And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hle.
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Your software needs to be compliant to win deals, but you also need your engineers focused on building your product, not pulling SOC2 evidence. Enter a third option. Make Vanta your first security hire. Vanta uses AI and automation to get you compliant fast. Simplify your audit process and unblock deals so you can prove to your customers that you take security seriously. Plus, Vanta scales right along with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. That's why top startups like Cursor, Linear and Replit use Vanta to get and stay secure. Don't sock block your best engineer, set them free and get compliant fast with Vanta. Get started@vanta.com.