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2244: Bitcoin Rebounds - JPMorgan Sees $266K BTC Outperforming Gold
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- [00:00]
JV
Today's episode of Bitcoin news alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states. Hey y'. All. As a growing family, my husband and I love game night. Especially when it's Wayfair edition.
- [00:31]
Ad Host
Let's do it. You gotta name as many Wayfair furniture and decor categories as you can. Ready? Go.
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JV
Sofas, bar stools, beds, ottomans, outdoor seating, bookshelves, kitchen tables, garden sheds, uh, mid century modern lamps. Time.
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Vanta Advertiser
Nice.
- [00:46]
Ad Host
You got nine out of a lot. Not too bad. Keep practicing by visiting Wayfair.com where you can shop every style for every home.
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JV
Wayfair every style, every home. Welcome bitcoin fam to the number one bitcoin pod. Bitcoins of ripping like the new Scotty Pippin. Look at that bitcoin right back in the green. We did tap a new market cycle low yesterday at 60,000. Today we're hovering just under 69 000. In today's show we break down the latest TA everything you need to know in the market as well as Bitcoin ETF shed 434 million as Bitcoin briefly touched 60,000 assets near 80 billion. Also Meta Planet vows to keep bitcoin as the sentiment craters. Also large bitcoin huddler share supply hits a nine month low amid the recent price drop. We also discussed Black Rock's ey bit hits the daily volume record of 10 billion amid the Bitcoin crash. And I'm going to leave you with some bullishness. Bitcoin price at 266,000. This is according to JP Morgan analysts. They see bitcoin more attractive than gold over the long term. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is Pot episode 2244. I'm your host JV alongside the Fed chair Nipinator, the only Fed chair not mentioned in the Epstein file drop. Just saying. But yeah, today we're pumping again. We regain a lot of the losses but we have a long ways to go. We are up now 2400 on the day at the time of the live bitcoin trading above 69,200. Kicking it off with our market watch as we do each and every day you can see on coin360 market's looking healthy again, at least in the sense we're in the green. Even though we got a long ways to recover from the all time high. We did officially drop more than 50% from the all time high achieved October 6th when we hit the firmament of 126. 3. Naturally because we hit 60 as in a flash crash as we continued yesterday, all the way down but back up 9,000 thousand on the day. XRP big gainer on the day after losing roughly 25% as well yesterday. It's now trading a 1:51. I think it bottomed at roughly a 115. Ethereum looking to reclaim 2000 at the time of the live and con up 7%. Sounds like a con to me, but is what it is. Checking out coinmarcap.com crypto market cap did return a little, but we're still all the way down to 2.28 trillion overall. Crypto market cap still down 4% overall past 24 hours. Bitcoin market cap is sitting 1.33 trillion. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got Decred leading the pack up 20% followed by Flare up 14% followed by Nexo up 13%. Now check out the Crypto Greed and Fear index. I did predict it's going to be the lowest we have seen it in at least the past year and lo and behold it is. It's officially a nine in extreme fear. The lowest we've seen previous was back in October when we had the massive liquidation. We did tap 10 temporarily but we just went lower than that. Yo. Yesterday was a 12, last week a 16. But yeah, we're back in extreme fear. And last month was a 42 in fear. There you go. But yeah, charts looking lit. So let's get right in to the charts here. I got it pulled up for you via Trading View via Coinbase, largest exchange in the States. You can see we currently just hit 69420 fax's number and just look at the bullish momentum after yesterday was horrid. Man. We did touch 60 as you can see in the the the the chart and then we started bouncing back and the bounce continues as we're looking to reclaim 70000 at the time of the live. Checking out the four hour. You're also going to notice 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 consecutive green candles looking to regain momentum back above the core moving averages on the screen, which we should if we can keep going up here. Checking out the daily. You'll notice yesterday one of the worst red candles in, but today we've recovered a significant amount of the losses. Not all of them clearly, but we're making progress. A step in the right direction for sure. Checking out the weekly, unfortunately, three red consecutive candles. We have two days for this candle close and unless the bounce continues its bullish momentum, we're most likely going to close in the red. Keeping up with the bearish momentum on the weekly, but checking out the monthly. Damn. Not looking good either. 1, 2, 3, 4. This is the fifth consecutive red candle month unless things change. And obviously this is the shortest but greatest month of the year, so we'll see how it plays out. But it's been very fascinating to see all this happening in real time. So check out our headline here. Bitcoin beats FTX Covid19 crash with record die below the 200 day trend line. But we did maintain above the average cost of mining a bitcoin we which is I believe right now just above 58,000. They say all hell breaks loose if we basically break below that price. So that's one of the, you know, positive catalysts right now. We did not sink below the cost of producing or mining a bitcoin with electricity and all that. But new analysis from Martin L. Weber, Director of Digital Asset Research of the European index provider Market Vector, said that the bitcoin long term investment thesis is intact. Bitcoin price action has never strayed so far from the 200 day simple moving average. And he also thinks the dip below 60 was anything but normal. And I think it was spot on at 60 in Coinbase. Some of the exchanges may have been 59 and some change, but ultimately we can round and just say it was 60 GS. Now it was very shortlived. We did bounce immediately after that to like 64 and now we're currently at 69 looking to recapture 70 GS. But he put here Bitcoin is 2.88 below the 200 day moving average and 10 years of data. This has literally never happen happened before. Not even during the COVID not during the FTX, never. The analysis places this week's crash amongst the bitcoins 15 fastest, with Bitcoin dropping by more than 22% in a single week, a worse rate than the 98.9% of its history. So when you're in the 99th percentile of the bad outcomes mean reversion becomes highly probable. And he shares these velocity distribution charts here, it shows you how rare are the current Bitcoin decline rates 7 day and the 30 day with the price changes. The 2.88 standard deviation below the 200 day symbol moving average has never happened before and sees Bitcoin beat the drawdowns for the major alts including Ether and Salana. We're not at generational lows yet, but we are at a statistical extreme across multiple indicators as the analysis points out alongside the charts. Despite this, the analyst says he's not in a hurry to predict the long term bitcoin price bottom, arguing that the current floor may be a local one and zoom it out. Meanwhile, three remain There remains reasons to believe in the Bitty Bull case and stick around. I'll give you JP Morgan analyst suggesting Bitcoin long term266,000 per coin outperforming gold. So stick around. But there's other naysayers that you know say things can get a lot worse. And as I already referenced, the Crypto Greed and Fear index did hit a new low for the cycle, which is officially a nine in extreme fear. And if you don't know now you know. Next up, the latest with a Bitcoin ETFs then meta planet doubling down. Then we'll get to the long term large Bitcoin Hodler Supply, Black Rock Bitcoin ETF I bit and then we'll get to the bullishness from JP Morgan, everyone's least favorite Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.
- [08:54]
Vanta Advertiser
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- [09:42]
JV
Get started@vanta.com banking institution and Epstein's favorite, but we'll continue yo next story of the day. And again, welcome everyone to the live stream. Let's get it. Bitcoin ETF shed 434 million as Bitcoin briefly touched 60 GS and congrats if any of you took advantage of that dip. I mean that's a basically buy one get one sale. That's more than 50% discount from the current top. So let's break this down. Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows on thirsty throwback Thursday, shedding 1 billion over the past two days as the debate grows over the potential impact to the market. Data shows spot big on ETFs recorded 434 million of net outflows following 545 million of redemptions the previous day. Monday's 561 million of inflows was not enough to offset the losses, leaving net weekly outflows at about 690 million as of Friday morning. The latest withdrawals came amid the sharp drop at a bitcoin price touching 60,000 for the first time since October. It was a hell of an October because that same month, remember the government shutdown began. But I'm actually referencing 2025, not 2024, but the very first week we hit the all time high of 126 3. Then on 1010 we had one of the worst liquidation events and crypto history and then it just continued correcting and here we are. Hopefully that was the bottom, but there's no telling with the constipated Ms. Yellen Bance. The launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs in Jan of 2024 it was Jan 11th was one of the most anticipated events in Bitcoin history. Widely expected to accelerate bitty adoption through institutionalization. Analysts argue institutionalization of Bitcoin via the ETFs may have done more harm than good. And yesterday is a great example of that. Claiming it contributed to undermining the asset scale scarcity, a key feature of Bitcoin's fixed supply. That's because with derivatives and rappers and you know, all that kind of stu, all the leverage plays, they're not even trading real bitcoin. They're just using rappers or derivatives which are financial weapons of mass destruction as per Warren Buffett. But anyways the same one, Bitcoin can now support an ETF unit, a future contract, perpetual swap options, Delta broker loan, structured note all at once. According to the analyst here. He says that is not a market, it's a fractional reserve price system. Kind of reminds me of fractional reserve banking where they ultimately you give a dollar and then they lend nine times what they receive and the money never really exists. It's a big Ponzi which is the banking system today, bro. But this analyst concerns echo those previously raised by his peers about the Bitcoin ETF becoming a tool for Wall street to trade against the the bitcoin. So it's like the forces of evil are using it against us. And before the crypto ETFs launch, this analyst said at hardware wallet provider Treasure Warn, such products could enable the creation of millions of unbacked Bitcoin, potentially depressing the value of actual Bitcoin. And as of Friday total assets that a spot Bitcoin ETF stood at 81 billion with the cumulative net flows totaled in 54 billion. And Altcoin ETF showed a mixed picture. Ether Fund shed 80 million and outflows and XRP actually had one of the it was one of the worst top cryptos lost like 25% yesterday, regained 20 today. Roller coaster continues. There you go yo. I don't know what are your thoughts on the institutions, the black rocks out there, etc. Do you trust or do you feel it's just going to lead to more manipulation and chaos in the markets? Do you think we're better off without them? Holler, let me know. Okay, next story of the day fam Meta Planet vows to keep buying Bitcoin as sentiment craters. That's right, their CEO Simon Gurevich double down on the company's Bitcoin first strategy is the wider crypto market suffered one of the harshest drawdowns since 2022, the FTX collapse being referenced there. There is no change to the Meta Planet strategy. We shall continue to accumulate btc, expand revenue and prepare for the next phase of the growth. Meta Planet stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed Friday down roughly 5 and a half percent at 340 yen which 2.16 USD. The corporate crypto whale is ranked fourth currently amongst publicly traded bitcoin treasury companies naturally behind strategy who has pole position with over 700000 Bitcoin MERA and 21 capital which Jack Mers is the CEO of alongside Howard Lutnick and the Tether guys. Meta Planet currently holds 35100 BTC as of Friday according to the bit treasuries.net Bitcoin was down 50% from the all time high when we hit the $60,000 low with the current firmament roughly 126.3that was 10/6 fam. Now also, the Crypto Greed and Fair index just hit a bottom for the cycle of a nine. And according to Coin Glass, 1.844 billion crypto long POS positions were liquidated yesterday. That's just insane. Corporate Bitcoin whales were also displaying losses on the balance sheet. Strategy, the largest public holder of bitcoin logged a 12.4 billion net loss of the fourth quarter as bitcoin dropped below the firm's average purchase price of 76,000. So Sailor is underwater right now. Strategy shares have dropped 17% on its Thursday call even as the company said its capital structure remains stronger and more resilient and that it had no major debt maturing until 2027, which, you know, at least a year out. Strategy's latest disclosure showed it bought another 855 bitcoin on Monday, one of the smaller purchases for 75. And like Strategy, Meta Planet hasn't signaled plans to unwind its exposure or sell its bitcoin holdings. Meta Planet's average cost for its bitcoin is 107, so clearly they're underwater. Crypto treasury is based on assets rather than Bitcoin are feeling the pressure as well. Meanwhile Ethereum treasury bit mine held 1.17 million eth while sitting on more than 8 billion on unrealized losses. This is obviously Tom Lee company there not doing so well as Ether is currently still trading under $2,000. Welcome to the live stream. We shall continue to knock out the latest and greatest of the bitcoin news. Next story. Large Bitcoin hodlers share supply hit a nine month low amid the recent bitty price drop. That's right. Large hodlers are now controlling the smallest share of the crypto supply since late May when it first reclaimed a hundred thousand after more than three months according to Santa. Man, speaking of science man, I gotta speak to Sam's Santiment posted on Thursday that the Whale and Shark wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 bitcoin have fallen to a nine month low collectively accounting for 68% of the entire BTC supply. Quoting them right here, this includes a dump of 81000 Bitcoin at the past eight days alone as Bitcoin fell from 90 to 65000 over the same period. Roughly 27 decline according to coin market cap. Bitcoin trading at 65,000 when this was publicized and naturally we did bounce back even stronger here today. We're currently sitting just shy of 70,000 as the recovery continues. Crypto market participants track the large Bitcoin holders to spot signs of accumulation or offloading, as these moves signal whether the whales believe the asset has peaked or is poised for an uptrend. And it isn't just the large Hodlers that are showing signs of caution. According to the crypto Quan CEO he put Every Bitcoin analyst is now bearish. Now naturally it doesn't mean every I'm sure as hell not bearish. You know I'm permeable. I'm like nipinator keeping them nipinating 24. 7 Take that thing. The Crypto Green and fair index did drop to a 9, the lowest we've seen it since mid-2022. Will it go lower? Let me know your thoughts. And while there have been sell off amongst the large Hodlers, retail investors have been aggressively accumulating. This combination of the key stakeholder selling and retail buying is what historically creates the bear cycles. They go on to share Shrimp wallets, which Sant defines as holding less than 1 Bitcoin have risen to a 20 month high since June of 2024, when Bitcoin was trading at 66 GS before falling to 53 GS just two months later. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you can save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you can save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.
- [18:12]
Vanta Advertiser
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- [19:00]
JV
Get started@vanta.com in August and then December of 2024 it reached 100,000 for the first time amid the boom in market after Trump won the US presidential election. The cohort now accounts for 0.249% of the Bitcoin total supply, which is equivalent to roughly 52,290 B to the T to the C. And there you go. Yeah. Next up, the latest from the ibit. Baby baby. Just posted the live on the stock twits. I greatly appreciate that, Shelton. I appreciate all the sharing you guys do respect. Speaking of Janet Yellen, wasn't she on the list of the Epstein island rumor? Had to drop the deuce. Exactly. Of course we know all the characters hang around the island and apparently Epstein's still living his best life playing video games with children. Not making this up. I'm sure you guys seen the photos, which of course they're trying to debunk. Oh no, that's not real. You know, people were asking Grok and the AI and of course Grok is created by Elon and Elon's implicit in the Epstein File this When's your craziest party gonna be, Epstein? I need the invite on Christmas Day, please. You know that was on 2012 Christmas Day. But I heard Charlie Shane wasn't even mentioned. He's a wild guy. Exactly. Want to know who's not mentioned? Charlie Sheen, John McAfee, Max Kaiser, Najibu Kelly and Fed Chair Nipinator. That's about it. Everyone else is complicit. But anyways, next story of the day, Black Rock's eye bid his daily volume bracket of 10 billion amid the biddy crash. That's right, Black Rocks Bob Big on ETF reportedly seen an all time peak daily trading volume as traders responded to the Bitcoin rapidly crash in price. IBIT crushed daily volume record on Thursday with 10 billion worth of shares trading hands. That means they're crushing it earning fees. Baluna has added that Ibit dropped 13% on the day, the second worst daily price drop since it launched with his biggest daily price crash coming in at 15%. And that was May 8th of 2024. And consider IBIT went live. I believe it was January 11th of 2024. So Wednesday IBIT posted net outflows total in 373 million with the ETF having just 10 trading days of net inflow so far of 2026. DTF has struggled to maintain consistent stream of inflows since the crypto market crash early October as price Bitcoin continues to plummet. Bitcoin dropped 12% of the past 24 hours but we did regain currently looking to recover 7 GS at the time of the live and we also have Bob Elliott, investment Chief Asset Manager of Unlimited Funds said on Sunday that the average dollar invested in Ibid is now underwater as the market closed on Friday which marked another painful day for the fun. The latest bitty crash comes as the market reacts to the weak U.S. job market data and growing concerns over a certain substantial capital being poured into the AI sector. Analysts such as Peter Brandt argued that the carnage may not be over, noting Wednesday that bitcoin is showing fingerprints. A campaign selling with few buyers stepping in the Prop the price up sailor. We need you to start buying the spot stat. All right fam. Now for our feature story of the day. Bitcoin priced at 266,000 per coin how can you say that JV Bitcoin just crashed the 60 GS we're well this is according to JP Morgan Chase. They see bitcoin more attractive than gold over the long term. Which leads me to one of my favorite Max Kaiser quotes. Gold is the poor man's bitcoin. Facts on facts on facts. So yeah, the big question Bitcoin versus Gold. JP Morgan said bitcoin's attractiveness relates to gold has improved after gold's recent rally and increased volatility. And at this time I believe gold is probably trading at roughly 5,000 announced. I believe the top was 5,700 before the correction. The bank said that this had altered the risk adjusted balance between the two assets in fact on Wednesday and noted Bitcoin's volatility relative to gold fell to a record low. This development, the bank said, strengthens bitcoin's long term risk adjusted profile. The large outperformance of goal versus the bitcoin since last October, coupled with a sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to the gold over the long term. Again, this is according to JP Morgan. And while bitcoin has struggled to say the least in recent weeks, JP Morgan said the liquidation activity of the crypto market remain modest. The bank suggests the selling pressure has been relatively contained compared to the prior downturns. That's a fact. 50 correction is nothing compared to what we've seen in the past 80 90. Just saying. JP Morgan also pointed to the bitcoin trading below its estimated production costs, which pegged it around 87 GS a level it said historically acted as a soft floor. Now here's where we get to this 266000 prediction from their analysts. Managing Director Nicholas Ponta Gasa Laka logo leading the analysts. Yeah, I butchered his name obviously. Let's just say Nicholas said the volatility adjusted basis the bitcoin market cap would need to rise to imply a bitcoin price of roughly 266J's thanks cap Mobius to match the private sector investment in goal. Well we all know goals mark cap just recently surpassed 40 trillion and shows how much potential we have with Bitcoin as it overtakes the gold market cap which we all know is inevitable just a matter of time. JP Morgan estimates this to be around 8 trillion excluding central bank holdings. However he did warn such a level would be unrealistic in the near term framing the figure as a long term benchmark. Well the good news long term in crypto is like 12 months. Just saying Van X bullish prediction. They say JP Morgan's fairly modest when compared to Van Eck. Van Eck revealed their long term base or bear case is just 130. Their bull case total 53 million. Let that one sink in. They believe Bitcoin going to 53 million per coin. Obviously the kicker caveat is going to be later in the future, but today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.
- [25:26]
Vanta Advertiser
Your software needs to be compliant to win deals, but you also need your engineers focused on building your product, not pulling SOC2 evidence. Enter a third option. Make Vanta your first security hire. Vanta uses AI and automation to get you compliant fast. Simplify your audit process and unblock deals so you can prove to your customers that you take security seriously. Plus, Vanta scales right along with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. That's why top startups like Cursor, Linear and Replit use Vanta to get and stay secure. Don't sock block your best engineer. Set them free and get compliant fast with Vanta. Get started@vanta.com stick around here.
- [26:18]
JV
Let's get into it. Vanexa the prediction sat on two structural pivots. The first the settlement pivot, which envisions Bitcoin facilitating 5 to 10% of the global international trade by 2050. So next 24 years. The second the Reserve pivot anticipates central banks may allocate just 2 1/2% of their balance sheet to Bitcoin. I say that's conservative as well as a hedge against sovereign debt vulnerabilities. Looking at the near term, another Analyst over at CCN said Bitcoin has now broken below the major long term threshold. Quoting them here. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price has now broken below the key long term support level that had held for nearly three years. Also drew comparisons to the 2022 bear claiming that while it is not as deep, familiar patterns developing. Looking ahead, if bitcoin continues to behave as it did in 2022, the next critical test lies significantly lower around the 0.382 Fibonacci region and potentially closer to the prior cycles long term cost basis zones. In that scenario you say bitcoin can do a slip and slide to 50 GS and if you don't know now you know yo. But let me know your thoughts on that and I'll continue to read your guys's comments out loud. Welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream. And we got done with the news. Pretty good timing here today. And I also want to remind you that at this time the current electric cost to produce A Bitcoin is roughly 58, 7 40. And this is a fact. Bitcoin has never dropped below its electric costs. And again 587 40. It got mighty close to doing that yesterday. We touched 60 but we held up so that's a good sign. And with that being shared again welcome everyone to the Q A segment. Very nice blade. Thank you. Thank you. If sailor started to buy the spot, he'd actually own some bitcoin. He done want to hold his own keys. He's super smart though. It's like you know how some people are so smart they're retarded. Not pointing any fingers but I know some people like that in real life. They're geniuses. Hence why they're. Hey, it's going to be doing its work. Nearly 70 GS. Yeah. We're only a God candle away. I'm sorry from 80. We're only a God candle away. We're 70 G's. I think we practically already hit 69. 868. Well we're 69 9. Yeah we're so we're dollars away. So 70,000 just like that. Biddy done follow any rules of the Fibonacci. The Fibonacci follows the rules of the biddy. Ignore my mining costs. It is for the long run. My baby doesn't understand. She say shut it off for now. I say that the. You know what's good that we got the recovery before the weekend because otherwise we would have had huge CME gaps. For example, let's say the carnage continued today and then over the weekend we pump. It'd be very short lived because we'd just come right back down, crashing on Monday when the markets open to fill those gaps, which is very typical. So it's actually very good that we're getting a pump during market hours on a Friday before we head into the weekend. Just make note of that's pretty good, you know. But there we go, we got the Sage lit and now we can welcome in ADGs. And when we hit 80 GS we'll play 80 GS and don't forget to check out BitcoinNewsAlerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.
- [30:07]
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- [30:49]
Vanta Advertiser
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