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2247: $779B Asset Manager Says Bitcoin Will Surge to $150,000 This Year
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Welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. Bitcoin sitting just above 70,100 at the time of the live. I'll be breaking down the latest at TA what's happening this week in the markets. Also, Bitcoin Miner Kango sells 305 million BTC worth Bitcoin to cut leverage and fund an AI pivot. We'll discuss Sailor strategy buying 90 million in Bitcoin small acquisition for the week as the price trades below the cost basis. Also, Binance adds 300 million in their Bitcoin to Safu reserve during the recent market dip. Also, Bitcoin whales took advantage of 60,000 price dips, scooping up literally 40,000 BTC. Also, crypto investment outflows ease after three weeks of consistent heavy selling. We also discussed $779 billion alliance. Bernstein, the asset manager just said Bitcoin will surge to 150,000 this year, quoting them here. Nothing blew up. No skeletons will unravel this is the weakest bitcoin bear case in history. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is pod number 2,247. I'm your host JV alongside fed chair Nip Nator. With that being shared, as you can see, bitcoin maintaining just above 70,000 at the time of the live. Let's kick it off with our market watch as we do each and every day. Coin360 up here you can see a lot of the alts also correcting alongside Bitcoin XRP barely in the green on the day and also con, which I'm assuming is Coinbase Coin for the largest exchange there in the U.S. i should say as BNB is the largest binance being the largest exchange and BNB being their local token. But anyways, continuing here, let's check out coinmarkcap.com as you can see, crypto market cap has declined actually on the day, down another two and a half percent. Currently sitting at 2.36 trillion. Bitcoin market cap at 1.4 trillion. Even McEven checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. Humanity protocol up nine and a half percent, followed by Trump's WLFI up 8%, followed by sky up 3%. And you also notice the official Trump meme coin is number eight on the list today at 1.8%. Very modest gains collectively for those actually in the green as the broader market is correcting and in the red, but very small. Checking out crypto greed and fear index, we did touch down at a 7 yesterday. The new cycle low is a 6 from the day prior. But today we did bounce a little higher to a 14. And extreme fear, same as last week and last month we were a 25 extreme fear. Now the silver lining is the lower this number goes, the more likely we start ripping bullish, you know, because things reverse. So it's always a good sign when we get bare market bottoms, when extreme fear is at a low. And so that's another sign we just witnessed. We just hit a new low for the cycle of a six. Very rare instances bitcoin has slipped to this extreme fear. So that's actually overall bullish and vice versa. If we ever get extreme greed, it means we're just more likely to have a pullback overdue. But checking out the infamous time chain calendar, today's block height 935, 771 and you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1427 SATs. So you know what to do. You pick up the sats, put down the gats, pick up some bitcoin caps for my man Sergio or for Bitcoin caps.net Let's continue with some of the live charts. As you can see here, this is the one hour you're going to notice some bullish momentum we've had here this morning which is actually a good sign. Hopefully we can continue the momentum. Checking out the four hour you'll notice two green candles recently printed. So like I said this morning we started pumping again. We're kind of right on the cusp of reclaiming above the moving averages here on your screen and checking out the daily you're going to notice yesterday we did have a green candle close for close the week which was nice. Day before that we had the corrective day before that big green candle ultimately regaining all the momentum we lost prior day with one of the worst liquidation events as you can see from that big mega red candle and we're still looking to recover from that. Still here checking out the weekly you're going to notice we did get another red weekly candle close. And now to kick off the new week. Obviously we're barely in the red here to kick off the new week but you know three consecutive red candle weekly closes and checking out the monthly you're going to notice 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 consecutive red candles. But that includes February which we're still in the midst of and is yet to be determined. So obviously we'll see how this rolls out. But continuing with some analysis here headline Bitcoin traders wait for 50,000 bottom here's the five things to know the market this week here you're looking at this is just the one hour chart. We already did the live chart so we'll get right into the TA Crypto Navo wrote what we're really anticipating here is the long wick getting filled at least 50% of it in the next weekly candles. Then Roman wrote guys this isn't the bottom just the bounce. Historically Bitcoin drops 80% during the bare market and right now we've you know dump maybe 50% from top to bottom from the 1263 to the 60,000. So that puts us near 40,000 according to Roman Trading. Dan Crypto trades wrote would expect volatility to slowly come off a bit again a range to be formed and form there on out can reassess and look for opportunities CPI do as Fed policy nerves emerge. This is something in the backdrop it says Trump has failed to calm the market nerves about the future policy. So Kevin Warsh, who's the new Fed chair, is thought to be notionally opposed to easing financial conditions, something that has already weighed in on risk asset performance. Currently, data from the CME Group Fed Watch tool gives an 82% odds of rates staying at the current levels as outlined right here for the next big FOMC meeting coming lumen in March and fast forward into a next major factor for the week. US Dollar at a ten year crossroads that's right for both Bitcoin and the broader risk asset market. US dollar strengths becoming an increasingly important potential volatility catalyst Here you're looking at the dxy which is the US dollar index, which enjoyed a relief rally following a trip to multi year lows of 95.5 late January, failing to reclaim levels above 98 as the analyst wrote here. Still holding that support but really critical level for the long term trend. DXY can offer a great trade setup soon, long or short, irrespective of direction. And another Analyst wrote In 2021 we had 12 weeks of a bitcoin rally into the new DXY bull. The rally gained 130% into the top for BTC. I see that same development again we 100% plus gain in Bitcoin into the final top. Let me know if you agree or disagree with any of these analysts. Next major factor the yen weakness stays on the radar. And speaking of the yen weakness, that was the, you know, the theory of yesterday's bullish prediction I leaded with with Arthur Hayes. He says the money printer will do its thing as the yen weakness continues the unwinding of the yen carry trade which can push Bitcoin to 500,000 to 750,000 before the end of the year. If you missed yesterday's episode, be sure to check it out. Quoting the analyst here, the Chachi trade lifted the decay to record highs while reshaping the global capital flows in risk off phases. Bitcoin tends to correlate with US equities, allowing equity led de risking to spill into the crypto markets. This pressure does not reflect deterioration of the bitcoin onchain fundamentals, but cross asset risk management. They also say with the election out of the way this does well. The optics of the yen depreciation won't matter nearly as much. So the election is conceivably a catalyst for the next round of yen weakening as outlined right there in the charts. Next major factor the Bitcoin minor See Exceptional exchange inflows quoting crypto quant. Notably, this rise in minor activity comes amid market environment characterized by clear volatility and reduced risk appetite among segment of traders, which can add an extra layer of the short term selling pressure. However, these inflows do not necessarily indicate the start of a prolonged downtrend, but rather many represent or may represent a natural redistribution phase within the market cycle. And here's the classic hash ribbons indicator on your screen which measures periods of minor stress. Likewise, continuing its reaction to the Bitcoin flash crash, the indicator's two moving averages of hash rate show no sign of forming a classic bullish cross, firmly invalidating its latest buy signal from early January and we're just sitting above 70,000. Looks like we're about to flip from red to green over the past 24 hours. It'll probably happen within the next story, so let's continue. Yo Next up, obviously Sailor posted the Sailor tracker yesterday which we did discuss, which is always a pre framing that an acquisition will be announced the following day when the market's open. And like clockwork, here we are. Sailor Strategy buys 90 million in Bitcoin as price trades below the cost basis. This is a very minuscule buy compared to what we're used to, though. Earlier he was doing one plus billion dollar buys, which is kind of ironic because this is the greatest time to be buying. It's below his cost basis, but it's a very small buy nonetheless. So here we go. Sailor Strategy, the world's largest public holder by far of the bitcoin, added another tranch of bitcoin last week, expanding its holdings without pushing it overall, pushing its overall cost basis lower. Strategy acquired 1142 bitcoin for 90 million last week, according to the US SEC filing. The acquisitions were made at an average price of 78, 800 per bitcoin, despite bitcoin trading below that level for most of the week and briefly touching 60 during that flash crash. Strategy misses the Bitcoin dip By buying Bitcoin at close to 79, a coin strategy avoided lowering the average cost basis to its existing holdings. Bitcoin, however, has traded well below that level for now almost a week. The price fell sharply below 78 last Tuesday and has not climbed above 72 mark since now the purchase mark strategy's second Bitcoin acquisition as Bitcoin trades below the company's average acquisition price, which is currently sitting at 76, 000 even. Strategy faced a similar situation back in 2022 when Bitcoin fell below 30, 000 while its average purchase price stood at 30,000 or 30,600, barely underneath right at the time. Strategy significantly slowed the pace of its buying, though it continued to make smaller purchases even as the price was below the cost basis. So maybe that's similar to what he's doing here. So in the lead up to the purchase, some participants speculated Strategy would try to avoid buying below its average cost of cycle. Given the optics around the unrealized losses, some users joke Sailor might instead announce another purchase at a much higher level. Sailor On Monday we've added another thousand Bitcoins at an average price of 95,000. One market observer joked on X taking shots at Sailor. But guess who's laughing all the way to the bank? His name's Michael Michael Sailor Strategy shares have mirrored the bitcoin volatility, dropping to around $107. That's crazy considering I believe the all time high was above $400. So it's down significantly, probably over 75%. In line with the minor rebound of the crypto markets, the stock started rising on Friday, a spike of 26% of close to $135. Let me know how many of you have any investment in strategy and what are your thoughts on Sailor's acquisition strategy as a whole? Do you see its brilliance or do you think it is our target? Let me know. Here we go. Binance adds 300 million or I should say Bance adds 300 million and their Bitcoin to SAFU reserve during this market dip, Binance bought another 4,225 bitcoin worth 300 million for its secure Asset Fund for Users Wallet, which holds as emergency reserves. According to blockchain data platform arcam. The acquisition lifts the fund's bitcoin holdings to more than 720 million at the current prices, quoting them here, we're continuing to acquire Bitcoin for the SAFU fund, aiming to complete conversion of the fund within 30 days of our original announcement. While the acquisition is a sign of confidence in Bitcoin by the world's largest exchange, it also exposes Banana's emergency fund to downside volatility of the Bitcoin price swings, which could reduce the fund's total value. Bitcoin first announced shifting 1 billion of its user protection fund into Bitcoin back on January 30, framing it as an expression of its conviction in Bitcoin's long term prospects. As you know, as the leading crypto asset, Binance said it would rebalance the fund back to a billion if the market volatility now drove its value below 800 million. Now fragile sentiment weighs in on the market. The Binance fund conversion occurs amid a wider crypto market correction. We saw the bitcoin price sink to 599 on Friday, a price level we ain't seen since October of 2024 before the reelection of the US President Trump. According to trading view here, you're looking at a bitcoin two year chart, just FYI and it shows you Trump's election. And ironic enough, we're pretty much ironically enough where we were at that time. Bitcoin investor sentiment remains fragile, threatening more downside of the absence of the positive market catalyst sentiment currently very fragile. With investors anchoring themselves at a traditional four year bitcoin cycle in which the bitcoin price historically follows the reoccurring pattern of boom and bust. The industry's best traders by returns track the smart money. Also continue betting on more crypto market downside. Smart money traders added 7 million worth of leverage short positions. I'll tell you, there's no such thing as smart money traders using leverage trading in my humble opinion. But just got to throw that out there. It's very, extremely risky. We know bitcoin is extremely volatile and just imagine people trading with leverage on the altcoins. It's just, you know, talk about shooting yourself in the foot. It's guaranteed to get yourself wrecked. So be careful out there, especially with trading with leverage and especially shorting the greatest appreciating asset in human history. You can't short your dorks, you can't afford that. But anyway, smart money traders are betting on the price decline of the most of the leading cryptos except avalanche which had 7 million in cumulative long positions. But like I said, don't follow the deep gens in the market. That's not the smart money in my humble opinion. The smart money are the long term hodlers with the diamond hands such as yourself, you know you can't short your dorks but all right, next up, bitcoin whales took advantage of 60,000 price dip. They literally scooped up 40,000 of the BTCs. Bitcoin rebounded 70% to trade near 70 today, which we're right above and we may flip in a green any moment here from the 15 month low of the 16,000 which we recently hit last week as the whales took advantage at a discount prices for the accumulation. So yeah, market participants observe deliberate posturing by the whales with analysis suggesting they played an important role in the latest bitcoin price recovery. Whales have been accumulating massive amounts of bitcoin during the recent drop, accumulating about 40,000 BTC according to Glass Node. This chart reveals addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 bitties have added 22,000 Bitcoin since Friday, while those with 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin acquired about 18,000 Bitcoin over the same period. The accumulation by the whales was followed by Bitcoin's 20% rebounds of 72,000 from the 15 month low of 60,000 reached on Friday. Bitcoin's recovery was also fueling by buyers of the Binance Secured Asset Fund which we just touched upon. They added 4225 BTC, roughly 300 million worth as outlined here from Bance. Whales failed to push Bitcoin above 72 in January. Similar activity when Bitcoin Wells accumulated 56,000 Bitcoin following the price dip to 84 GS. This preceded a 16% rise at a bitcoin price to its year to date high at 96. However, this was not enough to sustain the recovery as bitcoin crashed by over 38% to 60 GS. A similar scenario could be playing out for the short term after the price rejected from the resistance line of the ascending triangle at 72 and we're less than 2,000 away from that level right now. The chart below suggests the price risk, a breakdown below the triangle's lower trend line signaling a possible continuation of the downtrend. The first area of interest would be between 66 and 68 as a support zone where the 200 we EMA currently sits. But some analysts bleed Bitcoin has not yet found the real bottom. Quoting them here, we didn't get the bitcoin weekly close back of the range of 75 or higher. We want to see the low holding for the next 23 weeks with declining volumes on the pullbacks. Analysts were referring to the weekly support at 66 which the analyst says the price will likely retest before it can go higher. Next headline here reads Crypto investment outflows ease after three weeks of heavy selling and remember, there's no telling with the constipated Ms. Yellen Bance Crypto Investment Products logged the third straight week of the outflows, though the pace of selling is eased markedly as digital asset prices steadied for the sharp downturn. Crypto ETPs recorded 187 million of outflows during the week sharp drop from the 3.4 billion seen over the previous two weeks. The slowdown came as Bitcoin fell to the lowest level since November 2024, with a price touching 60 GS on that was last Thursday. And while the flows typically move in line with the crypto prices, changes in the pace of outflows have historically been more informative, often signaling inflection points in investor sentiment. Bitcoin investment products were the only ETP group to suffer significant losses last week without flows totaling 264 million. XRP funds led the inflows, attracting 63 million, while their altcoin ETPs, such as those tracking Ether and Solana, posted modest gains of 5 and 8 million, respectively. Spot Bitcoin ETFs accounted for the large portion of the Bitcoin ETP outflows, amounting to 318 million last week. And addressing last week's slowdown in outflows, Butterfl Butterfill suggested a potential market nadir may have been reached, implying a possible bottom could have been formed for the ETPs. But despite the easing outflow last week marked milestone of trading activity according to the Butterfield ETB volumes reached record 63 billion, surpassing the previous high of 56 billion set in October of last year. Meanwhile, global crypto ETP assets under management declined to 129 billion, which is the lowest level since March of 2025 following three consecutive weeks of outflows. Crypto ETPs lost a total of 1.2 billion year to date compared to the 1.9 billion of outflows of the Bitcoin ETFs. And in other industry news, major crypto fund issuer 21 shares filled last week with the US SEC for an ETF tracking Ondo. And if you don't know now, you know. Now for our feature story of the day. This just in. 779 billion dollar asset management giant Alliance Bernstein just said Bitcoin will surge to $150,000 per coin this year. Quoting them here. Nothing blew up. No skeletons will unravel. This is the weakest bitcoin bear case in history. Let's do a little deeper dive. This headline here reads Alliance Bernstein delivers a strong Bitcoin price prediction for the cycle. That's right. Alliance Bernstein has issued one of the most confident bitcoin outlooks seen this year. It's crazy because it's only150,000, but it's because everyone's bearish right now after the correction, right? The Global Asset manager, which oversees nearly 779 billion in assets under management, believes Bitcoin could search 150000 within the current market cycle in fact, this year, executives describe the present environment as unusually resilient, noting recent volatility failed to expose the hidden structural risk. And unlike past cycles, the firm argues that nothing broke and no critical failures emerge beneath the surface. And that's a fact. This Bitcoin price prediction stands out because it does not rely on speculative hype. Alliance Bernstein anchors his view and market structure, investor behavior and institutional participation. The firm believes Bitcoin has matured into an asset that absorbs stress without triggering systemic collapse. That evolution, according to the analyst, fundamentally weakens the traditional bear case that once defined the crypto downturns. The firm's assessment also reflects how dramatically Bitcoin's role has changed inside the global portfolios. What once traded as a fringe asset now sits alongside equities, bonds and commodities. That shift strengthens the Bitcoin market outlook and reframes how investors think about long term valuation now. Why Alliance Bernstein calls this the weakest Bitcoin bear market in history. Let's discuss it the contrast of the current market with the previous Bitcoin downturns to explain its optimism. Earlier cycles unravel under excessive leverage, opaque firms and fragile infrastructure. Each correction exposed hidden weaknesses that amplify the selling pressure and destroyed confidence. This cycle, however, followed a very different pattern. Bitcoin endured sharp pullbacks without triggering widespread failures. Major custodians continued operating smoothly and liquidity remained accessible throughout periods of stress. Alliance Bernstein sees the stability as evidence that many historical risks no longer dominate the ecosystem. The firm believes most structural vulnerabilities already surfaced and cleared during the prior market resets. Executives emphasized no unresolved skeletons threatened to emerge unexpectedly. Regulatory clarity, improved custody standards strengthen the institutional safeguards expanded. These developments collectively reduced the downside risk, reinforcing confidence in the broader Bitcoin market outlook. Alliance Bernstein points to the broader macroeconomic conditions that favor Bitcoin, including global liquidity cycles appearing to be more supportive than during the earlier downturns. Central banks continue signaling flexible ability as growth concerns persist across major economies. Historically, such environments benefit scarce assets with fixed supply characteristics. Inflation dynamics remain another important factor. Investors continue seeking assets that preserve purchasing power over the long horizons. Bitcoin's cap supply 21 million and predicted issuance schedule resonates strongly in that context. Alliance Bernstein believes these attributes reinforce the Bitcoin price prediction as demand persists. Also, the rise in sovereign debt level further strengthens the Bitcoin appeal. Concerns about currency stability encourage diversification into alternative stores of value. Bitcoin increasingly occupies that role for institutions and individuals Alike supporting a constructive Bitcoin market outlook. Now to the 150,000 target and why they say it's achievable. They frame the 150 target as a function of supply and demand rather than speculation. Simple supply demand stock to flow. The firm highlights how the Bitcoin post have an issuance continues shrinking while demand expands. This imbalance historically precedes strong appreciation phases. It's very simple supply demand. When you have massive demand limited supply supply shock numbers go up. ETF related inflows add another layer of sustainability sustained buying pressure. Unlike the short term traders, ETF investors often allocate capital for the longer durations. That behavior reduces the likelihood of abrupt sell offs. Alliance Bernstein believes this dynamic supports a higher valuation threshold than the past cycles. So what exactly does this view mean for Bitcoin investors? Alliance Bernstein does not suggest a smooth path upward. Without volatility, price swings will remain part of the Bitcoin nature. However, the firm clearly believes downside scenarios lack the force they once carried. That reassessment changes how investors evaluate risks. So for the long term participants, this outlook reinforces strategic allocation decisions. Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a macro asset integrated into traditional finance. And as adoption deepens, institutional Bitcoin demand could continue rising. That trend strengthens the broader Bitcoin market outlook. Alliance Bernstein's confidence reflects conviction grounded in the market of evolution. The firm believes Bitcoin combined scarcity with growing legitimacy. That combination underpins its bold Bitcoin price prediction and draws attention across the global markets. Now let me know your thoughts on 150 G's for this year. In particular also consider back in October when we reach the current all time high which I label the firmament that was 1263 so 24000 from the current top would put us there which very achievable with any sort of bullish momentum we see this year. But let me know your thoughts. Do you think this will be an entire cracked of winter or do you think we'll break above last year's October 6th all time high of 126 hit the 150 as Bernstein suggests? Or do you think that's just getting started? And like I said yesterday we did a very bullish prediction from Arthur Hayes who believes you know the yen carry trade unwinding is going to lead to massive money printing which will lead to Bitcoin going parabolic. He put a range between 500,000 and 750 GS. Let me know your thoughts and I'll Read those comments out loud. I'm good with the dips as long as the price comes back up. Buying that dip. Hey guys, Happy Monday. Happy Monday. Crypto surge. Welcome to the live fam. And we're maintaining in the green now, which is cool. That's how we do it. 60 was the bottom. It was like depending on what exchange you're on, I'll verify it right now via coinbase it was 60,000. Even on Coinbase you can see the low there. 60,000 even on Coinbase was the bottom. And on gemini it was 60,000. BitPay it was 59. 7. That's why some people say it dropped below 60. It all depends on the exchange you're referencing. And on Bitstamp it was 59. 9. And on Kraken it was 60,500. So safe to just round to 60,000 as the current bottom. That's the cycle bottom right now. So we're practically a God candle right above the bottom. But you know what was interesting? The following day we had practically a ten thousand dollar God candle. So even though we dropped like twelve thousand that one day, the following day we regained ten thousand and here we are. So it was very short lived, which is a good sign because a lot of buyers stepped in at 60, meaning there were a lot of buy orders just awaiting that price action and just we regained most of the losses within 24 hours. But here we are now trading sideways since. And now we're waiting for the next big move, you know, will it continue test lower again or will we inch our way towards the maybe 75, 80 range and eventually close that 84 gap? That's the question right now. You know, we could obviously retest lower levels or we may just start ripping up. There's no telling what to constipate. Ms. Shell and bananas. I bought the out of the dip. Nice. Did you make lots of purchases as it kept dipping or did you just do one strategic buy, let me know I was off by 5,000. What are you referencing you bought? Did you buy the dip as well, Serge? That's awesome. But yeah, a lot of you guys were taking advantage of it. It's crazy because the 69,000 range which we're at now was the all time high from the 2021 back in that cycle. From 2020, 2024, 2021 was the cycle high. And then after that we went from 69. The following year due to the FTX and Terra Luna and all the, you know, Celsius, all the collapsing companies, it sunk to like 16. So we wrote it from 69 to 16. And then obviously more recently we, you know, kept hitting new all time highs for the new cycle for the having year 2024 leading into 2025. We peaked out in October at the 126 3, which is the current firmament, which means practically we're still 30,040 55 56, 000 from the top right now. It was pretty crazy. I predicted 55. Oh, that's right, you did call that brother. And you know, it may still come to fruition because we don't really know if the correction is over. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hodl.