2248: Bitcoin 2026 Supercycle Thesis Evolves as Timing Shifts

Summary

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Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC News

Episode 2248: Bitcoin 2026 Supercycle Thesis Evolves as Timing Shifts
Date: February 10, 2026
Host: JV (Bitcoin News Alerts)

Episode Overview

This episode delves deep into Bitcoin’s recent price action, explores whether the ongoing corrective phase marks a new bear market bottom, and discusses pivotal macro and regulatory events impacting the market. JV and his co-host break down the evolving 2026 "supercycle" thesis—drawing on insights from analysts, on-chain indicators, regulations like the Genius Act and MiCA, the state of Bitcoin ETFs, and CZ’s (Binance) shift on the supercycle narrative.

Tone: High-energy, candid, with lots of crypto community banter.

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Contents

1. Market & Technical Analysis
2. Bear Market Signals & On-Chain Metrics
3. Mayoral Multiple & Bottom-Hunting
4. Stablecoin Regulation: Genius Act & MiCA
5. Bitcoin ETF Flows & Institutional Dynamics
6. 2026 Bitcoin “Supercycle” Thesis & CZ’s Shift
7. Audience Q&A & Community Shoutouts

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Market & Technical Analysis

[00:54–04:39]

• BTC Price Action:
  • Bitcoin hovering at ~$69,300, with most altcoins red and market cap slightly up at $2.35 trillion.
  • “We’re sitting just above 69,300 in today’s show...the majority of the market is corrective.” — JV (00:54)
• Greed & Fear Index:
  • Extreme fear (9), recent local bottom noted.
  • “We hit a local bottom for the cycle a couple of days ago. Yesterday was a 14. Last week of 17. Last month 29 in fear.” — JV (01:54)
• Live Chart Analysis:
  • 1H chart shows mild correction; trying to stay above the psychological $70K level.
  • Weekly and monthly: multi-candle consecutive red streaks.
  • “Fourth consecutive red candle for the new week. Will things finally change anytime soon?” — JV (04:28)

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Bear Market Signals & On-Chain Metrics

[05:05–09:53]

• Bear Market Discussion:

  • $60K crash may signal halfway through bear market (per Kaiko).
  • “This decline...has moved out of the euphoric post-halving phase.” — Co-host (05:05)
  • Historical bear markets last ~12 months before accumulation resumes.
  • “Bitcoin's 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and may mark the halfway point of the current bear market.” — Co-host quoting Kaiko (05:27)

• Comparative Cycle Context:

  • Post-halving patterns: “2012...parabolic. 2016/17...from $1,000 to $20,000. 2020 halving...ATH of $69,000 (Nov 2021). Fourth halving was April 2024.” — Co-host (06:22–06:49)
  • Kaiko: On-chain metrics, spot volumes down 30%, significant open interest reduction signals leverage flushing.

Notable Quote:

“With oversold indicators emerging...the rebound conversation around Bitcoin is more a question of when, not if.” — Co-host, paraphrasing Mexi Research (07:42)

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Mayoral Multiple & Bottom-Hunting

[12:31–16:08]

• Mayoral Multiple At 2022 Lows:
  • “The Mayor Multiple score dropped to levels usually reserved for deep bear market corrections...as of Monday, 0.65, below its oversold 0.8 level.” — JV (13:26)
  • Glassnode, Capriole: Historically, this is strong buy territory, but bottoms can take months to form.
• Discussion of Historical Drops:
  • “In mid 2022 the indicator bottomed at 0.47. Bitcoin then dropped 58% over the following four months...” — Co-host (14:45)
• Bottom Projections:
  • 200-week MA currently at $58K; historical support, but rare breaches could see BTC at $40K–$52K in extreme capitulation scenarios.

Notable Quote:

“Historically, being below this level is exactly where I want to be stacking sats.” — Co-host (14:18)

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Stablecoin Regulation: Genius Act & MiCA

[16:08–20:35]

• Overview:
  • Genius Act (US) and MiCA (EU) are rewriting stablecoin rules, dividing them into “cash” and “shadow” deposit classifications.
  • “Stablecoin’s peg is no longer a branding contest about being fully backed—it’s about becoming a quasi-constitutional question in a panic: who has the enforceable right and practical ability to redeem at par, on demand?” — JV (16:23)
• Key Outcomes:
  • Cash-like stablecoins protected by law and reserves; others will act more like risk assets under stress.
  • Genius Act bans interest/yield for holding payment stablecoins to prevent shadow banking.
  • Clarity needed on cross-border issuance.
  • “The most explosive still unsettled question is cross border multi issuance...the strongest legal perimeter becomes a magnet as everyone tries to redeem where rights are best.” — Co-host (18:21)
• Centralization & Instrumentalization:
  • “Stablecoins will be weaponized as a central bank digital currency would be used—just a different name. ...I don’t trust the government...” — Co-host (20:41)
  • Host references Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong’s opposition.

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Bitcoin ETF Flows & Institutional Dynamics

[21:16–23:14]

• Spot ETF Flows:
  • “Bitcoin ETFs extend rebound as $145 million of fresh inflows hit the market...institutional demand may be stabilizing.”
  • Outflows have slowed but not reversed: net $1.9B in redemptions YTD.
• Institutional Adoption:
  • “Bitcoin’s growing institutional presence has not driven early investors out of the market. Diamond hands, according to Bay Wise…” — JV (21:54)
  • Discussion on OG vs. mainstream/institutional holders.
• Bernstein Outlook:
  • “This is the weakest bear case in Bitcoin history...$150K still in play this year.” — JV (22:28–22:35)

Notable Quote:

“I think the story that most OG crypto is giving up on the space just doesn’t align...all the OGs are still OGs.” — Co-host, paraphrasing Matt Hougan (23:14)

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2026 Bitcoin “Supercycle” Thesis & CZ’s Shift

[24:20–27:54]

• CZ’s (Binance) Supercycle Revisited:
  • Originally predicted a 2026 supercycle, but is now more cautious due to market conditions.
  • Supercycle: Extended growth phase, breaking typical 4-year boom/bust cycles.
  • “The supercycle is not just about short-term price increases. It suggests a deeper transformation of the market...institutional adoption, broader global acceptance, regulatory clarity.” — JV (25:28)
• Why the Walk-back?
  • “Even though the idea made the big headline, [CZ] didn’t double down blindly. In more recent comments, he openly acknowledged current market fragility.”
  • Not a price prediction, but a long-term possibility contingent on institutions & regs.
• Is the Supercycle Dead?
  • “It doesn’t mean CZ is predicting a specific outcome like XYZ by XYZ date—just that traditional timing signals may not apply.” — Co-host (26:45)
  • Possible targets range from $200K to $1 million remain “in play” IF supercycle is real, but volatility and uncertainty remain high.

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Audience Q&A & Community Shoutouts

[27:54–30:55]

• Bear Market Sentiment:
  • “50% corrections are normal. I’m still holding on to the prediction: $1 million for the cycle peak 2026, says the Oracle.” — JV, quoting listener (28:35)
• Personal & Community Celebrations:
  • Birthday wishes exchanged for listeners’ children and show regulars (Aquarius season!).
  • JV shares: “Risk it for the biscuit...Happy birthday, Aisha. 15 years old.” (30:07)
• Final Thoughts:
  • “Super Saiyan. Bitcoin.” (30:50)
  • “HODL it.” (31:12)

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Key Quotes & Moments

• “With oversold indicators emerging...the rebound conversation around Bitcoin is more a question of when, not if.” — Co-host (07:42)
• “The supercycle is not just about short-term price increases. It suggests a deeper transformation of the market.” — JV (25:28)
• “All the OGs are still OGs.” — Co-host, paraphrasing Matt Hougan (23:14)
• “50% corrections are normal. I’m still holding on to the prediction: $1 million for the cycle peak 2026, says the Oracle.” — Listener via JV (28:35)
• “Stablecoin’s peg...it’s about becoming a quasi-constitutional question in a panic: who has the enforceable right and practical ability to redeem at par, on demand?” — JV (16:23)
• “Don’t trust the government...don’t trust pedophiles...don’t trust anyone doing business with Epstein.” — Co-host, on regulatory skepticism (21:16)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:54 – Show begins, market recap, Bitcoin at ~$69,300
• 05:05 – Discussion of the Bitcoin $60K crash and bear market status
• 07:42 – Mexi Research: “Question of when, not if” for Bitcoin rebound
• 13:26 – Mayoral Multiple at four-year lows; on-chain bottom hunting
• 16:08 – Regulatory deep-dive: Genius Act & MiCA on stablecoins
• 21:16 – Bitcoin ETF inflows & institution adoption evolving
• 24:20 – Supercycle thesis (CZ) evaluated & updated
• 27:54 – Listener Q&A, shoutouts, community discussion

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Takeaways for Non-Listeners

• The Bitcoin market is choppy, potentially entering the deep phase of a bear market, with consensus forming around a bottom zone near $60K—but further downsides to $40K–$52K are possible if history repeats.
• On-chain metrics like the Mayoral Multiple signal historical buy zones, but bottoms can be long processes.
• Regulatory frameworks (Genius Act in the US, MiCA in the EU) are fundamentally changing stablecoin markets, creating new tiers of “cash-like” and “risk-asset-like” coins, with global cross-border effects yet to be resolved.
• Despite pain, institutional inflows to Bitcoin ETFs are stabilizing, and the era of OGs vs. institutions continues—most long-term holders remain.
• The “2026 Supercycle” idea (per CZ) remains possible, but is far from assured amid current volatility; expectations are shifting to structural change, not just timing bullish cycles.
• The show’s tone is irreverent, community-focused, and unapologetically pro-Bitcoin.

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For more analysis and to join the live Q&A, catch the video and chat at bitcoinnewsalerts.net. HODL it!

Transcript

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[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

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[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Results may vary welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. We're sitting just above 69,300 in today's show. I'll be breaking down the latest TA and what you need to know in the market. Also, Bitcoin price punishes traders as the 24 hour crypto liquidations surpass 250 million. Also the Bitcoin mayor multiple hits 2022 levels. So we're going to be discussing where that bitcoin price bottom is likely as well as the genius act and MAA splitting stable coins into cash and shadow deposits. We also discussed the Bitcoin ETFs extend the rebound as 145 million in fresh inflows hit the market. We'll also be discussing a 2026 potential Bitcoin super cycle and what CZ, the founder of Binance has to say regarding this. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is pod number 2248. I'm your host JV happy 69420 the price action we just hit on the screen. We got lots to share today as always. So without further ado, let's dive right in. Pulling up coin360 bulk of the market corrective in the red. Bitcoin hovering at 69,300 on coin360 at the time of the live ether down 3%. Bulk of the market cracked in in the red. Checking out coinmarketcap.com we finally got an increase the market cap but barely up a half a percent on the day. Currently sitting at 2.35 tr trillion. That's total crypto market cap, Biddy market cap in particular $1.388 trillion. Checking out top 100 past 24 hours we've got Pippin. I don't know if that has a correlation with Scotty Pippin, who knows. But it's up 48. There's river up 43% and stable up 27 below that. Very modest gains across the board as the majority of the market is corrective. And in the red checking out crypto greed and fear index. We're still in extreme fear rated a 9. We hit a local bottom for the cycle a couple of days ago. Yesterday was a 14. Last week of 17 last month 29 in fear. And checking out the time chain calendar, today's block height number 935, 931 but who's counting besides JV and the Nipinator? And as of today, February 10th, you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1440 SATS. So you know what to do. Pick up the sats, put down the gas, pick up some bitcoin caps from a man, Sergio [e-mail] Let's dive in. We'll do a little live chart action. Jackson Satisfaction, Bo Jackson, Tony Braxton. We got to dedicate today's show to the baddies one hour chart. You'll notice a red candle forming. Prior we had a couple of greens looking to recover above the moving averages. Still in a corrective mode. Looking to ultimately decide should we rise above 70 or are we going to continue to correct below 70 and critical psychological level. Clearly checking out the four hour you're going to notice a couple of green candles on the screen. So look to make a push above 70,000 at the time of the live. You know we did hit 71 just the other day before the correction. Checking out the daily. You're also going to notice a red candle on the day yesterday. Itty bitty red. Day before that finally had a green day before that red. A day before that we had a God candle. Practically 10,000 on the day recovery after losing 12,000 the prior day with the massive red candle selloff. You can see on your screen checking out the weekly. Check her out.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

1, 2, 3.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

We're on our fourth consecutive red candle for the new week. Will things finally change anytime soon?

[Co-host / Analyst]

Let me know man.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

But yeah, it's been stuck for the.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Time being at least.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

And the monthly very similar. 1, 2, 3, 4. This is the fifth consecutive red candle. It all started with October, November, December, January and we may get a February bear. There's Just no telling with the constipated miss yelling bananas, you know. And next up, let's get right into some of this Tao Bitcoin 60K crash may mark the halfway point of the bear market according to the Keiko. That's right, this decline of the market.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Has moved out of the euphoric post halving phase.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

And for those who don't know we.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Hit a bottom of roughly 59.9. We can practically say 60,000 last week, which is the new cycle low. We ain't seen this price action in a very long time.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

So Kaiko described it historically. A typical bear market last 12 months.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Before the new accumulation phase begins.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

In the research note they also shared.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Bitcoin's 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin having and may mark the halfway point of the current bare market. Quoting them here alongside the chart analysis of the onchain metrics and comparative performance.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Across the tokens reveals a market approaching critical tech support levels that'll determine whether.

[Co-host / Analyst]

The four year cycle framework remains intact. And there's firm believers that we have an extended cycle meaning we ain't seen the top yet. Which if in a traditional four year.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Cycle means we topped out last year.

[Co-host / Analyst]

At the 1263 which was October 26th. You know that was actually during the government shutdown and things got a lot worse from there and we bottomed out for the year and then we continued that bottom this year with the new bottom for the cycle which again is currently 59 9. So let me know your thoughts here.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

You can see some of the having cycles.

[Co-host / Analyst]

2012 we had the first having and then we went parabolic obviously right after having two 2016 and then 2017 another parabolic run up went from a thousand to 20,000. I'll never forget it. That was my inauguration year to crypto.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

And then the third having was of.

[Co-host / Analyst]

2020 we hit the all time high of 69,000 and I think that was November of 2021. And then we just had the fourth having April of 2024 and after that.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Having naturally we hit a new all.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Time high consecutive times and like I said the current top of the firmament126 3 at the time, you know, in the cycle.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Kaiko's report highlighted several emergent on chain.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Bear market signals including the 30 drop of the aggregate spot crypto trading volumes across the 10 leading centralized exchanges. Obviously with finance being the largest and the 1 trillion October 2025 down to 700 billion in November at the same time. Combined, Bitcoin ether futures open interest declined from 29 billion to 25 billion over the past week, a 14 reduction that they say reflects the ongoing deleveraging. And here in the chart you can see in interest over time dropping Now.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Fouryear having cycle since the beginning of the year, determining the depth of the current bare market is complex. Quoting analysts over at Mexi Research.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

With oversold indicators emerging on the multiple.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Time frames, the rebound conversation around the Bitcoin is more of a question of when, not if. Adding that Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle that will only become clear over the next year. So the million dollar question remains is 60,000 the bear market Bottom I want to know your thoughts, so please do weigh in and I'll read them in the chat here shortly. The analyst from Nansen Shares with that said, it is still very hard to say if it means we're going back to the conventional four year cycle. I have seen many prominent figures in the space air the idea, but equally many who do not think so. So let me know where you're leaning.

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[Co-host / Analyst]

Point to a 52 retracement from the Bitcoin previous all time high which is unusually shallow. That's right. We have already corrected roughly 50 from the top to the bottom. Started from the bottom. Now we hear a 6% to 68 retracement would align more closely with the historical drawdowns, which would mean we're likely to crack further if this is anything like a historical drawdown which can take us to the forty to fifty thousand Dollar level. So let me know your thoughts. Do you think the bottom is in? You think we will correct lower retest holler?

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Let me know we're going to continue here. Bitcoin price punishes traders as 24 hour crypto liquidation surpass a quarter billion dollars.

[Co-host / Analyst]

I mean you can't short your dorks.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

You can't afford that.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Hopefully you've been listening to the lyrics here.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Bears battle for the local bitcoin price trend. That's the one hour chart and we.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Already did the live analysis so we'll dive deeper here.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Part of the narrow local trading range, the level still held significance for market participants eyeing liquidations on the exchanges. These remain high despite relatively calm price behavior. Within the past 24 hour time frame over 250 million across of crypto as outlined here have been liquidated. Bitcoin pumped to 71000 yesterday liquidating 130 million in shorts.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Then Bitcoin dumps straight back to 68 liquidating another 150 million in longs.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

So anyone trading with leverage has been getting wrecked.

[Co-host / Analyst]

So it's extremely risky especially with all the volatility in the market. You know, according to it looks like.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Wealth capital management here. Above 72 to 74 we still have.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Large liquidity waiting to be taken.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

However 6668 we have even larger leverage.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Liquidity building up making this the higher probability zone for a sweep next. Which means we can correct a little.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Further down wiping out some more leverage players.

[Co-host / Analyst]

The chart captured the high stakes liquidation potential both above and below. Water above, water below. You know.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Bears are attempting to regain the control material.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Indicators warned that the bitcoin was due to the low time frame support retest fire charts bend the CVD showing the purple whales. I missed me some purple rain continue to sell over the purple haze over the last 24 hours. Just blaze. Things are setting up for bitcoin to grind its way into the retest of the local support.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

So bitcoin faces weakening seller absorption. As crypto quant points out, despite the increase in coins being spent, fresh capital inflows are not expanding at the same pace. Hence I want to talk to Samson. Demand has slipped into negative territory signaling that the market's ability to absorb distributed supply is a weakening.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

Similar divergences of the prior cycles mark.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Transition phases where bullish momentum slowed before either consolidation or correction unfolded. Now the upheaval amongst the bitcoin miners.

[Co-host / Analyst]

They up their inflows to the exchanges.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

In order to cover the expenses.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Expectations of a lengthy bitcoin bare market Meanwhile continue to gain acceptance but let.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Me know your thoughts.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Yo, is the bear market already in?

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Are we doomed?

[Co-host / Analyst]

Is the bull over? Was 126the top? Let me know fam.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Next up we'll continue with this TA here mayor multiple hits 2022 level so it's been four years since we send this indicator drop to this level. Yo let me know if you're familiar with mayor multiple the Bitcoin 45 crash in the 126 peak it's really closer to 50% as place on chain indicators in focus as participants search for where bitcoin price is likely to bottom. I mean that's the million dollar question everyone wants to know is the bottom end. The mayor multiple is amongst the indicators suggesting the bottom could be reached soon. In a post the on chain college said a bitcoin mayor multiple score dropped to levels usually reserved for the deep bare market corrections. Indicator measures show the bitcoin current price against the 200 day moving average and the result is used as a buy or sell signal. Its creator Trace Mayer originally gave a reading of below 2.4 as the buy territory which is the red line in the chart on your screen. Data from Glass Node showed as of Monday the mayor multiple measures 0.65 below.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Its oversold 0.8 level which is the.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Green band, a reading last seen all the way back in May a 2022 that was obviously the bear market Bitcoin now officially under the green band of the Mayor multiple Z score which Dragon Ball Z yes please. We'll summon Shenron and you know we'll.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Bring Satoshi back to life if we.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Have to, you know which is usually.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

Reserved for the deep bare market corrections.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

It can still take months before finding the bottom.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

But Bitcoin is in a period in.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

History typically reserved for the darkest days of the bear markets. Levels like this have historically marked some of the bitcoin's best long term buying ops. The mayor multiple at a 06 means the Bitcoin's trading 40% below the 200 day moving average. As pointed out here, it doesn't happen during normal pullbacks, only shows up during the full blown capitulation sensation. And then we had Charles Edwards a Capriole share.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Historically being below this level is exactly where I want to be a stack in a sats.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

You know, stacking them sats faster than packing them gats. He also says incredibly rare and bullish bitcoin signals of firing mayor multiple perhaps.

[Co-host / Analyst]

The oldest bitcoin model rarely hits the 06 can the price go lower?

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Well yes, but this is historically one.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Of the best buy signals in bitcoin history. The doing Let me know if you agree.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Disagree Extreme lows of the mayor multiple.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Does not always correspond to the bitty price floors. In mid 2022 the indicator bottomed at 0.47. Bitcoin then dropped 58 over the following four months reaching a further bottom of 15, 500. So the question remains, where's the true bottom? Was 68 or will we go lower? Do note 200 week moving average sits at 58, often considered the ultimate support for bitcoin in the bear market. This level is 15 below the current price, which means if we did retest that level, obviously we can go lower. Historically bitcoin dropped to this level in extreme bearish conditions but as rarely drop below it. Except there's always exceptions, right? 2020 and 2022 with losses averaging 30%. Therefore Bitcoin could drop lower retesting the 200 day moving average of 50 ags. But in the extreme case it could fall another 30% all the way down to 40 g's. This target is reasonable based on the RSI which can still drop another 55 from the 37 mark, bringing Bitcoin to the lower 40 region. Historically the lows have been less deep making 55 the extreme dip. Adding 40 below the RSI 37 level would be in line with the last two bottoms which would be 52000 before the summer. There's decent confluence around that area for me to at least pay close attention to the low 50s.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

There you have it.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Yo.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Next up, the latest of the Genius Act. Next up here, the Genius act and MICA will split the stable coins into the cash and shadow deposits. That's right, stablecoins PEG is no longer.

[Co-host / Analyst]

A branding contest about being fully backed.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

It's about becoming a quasi constitutional question in a panic. Who has the enforceable right and practical.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Ability to redeem at par on demand.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Which reserves that stay reachable and trust collapses Next Stablecoin crisis will not be decided by reserve existence. It'll be decided by the reserve access and illegal priority.

[Co-host / Analyst]

The market already watched this movie during Silicon Valley bank weekend March of 2023 when USDC traded off par after Circle.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Disclosed that part of its reserves were.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Temporarily stuck at svb.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game?

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

Well with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try [e-mail] Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law, not available in all states.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

The Federal Reserve later treated that episode.

[Co-host / Analyst]

As a concrete case where secondary market price and reflected friction and redemption rails, not as an abstract debate over whether the collateral existed. That experience is now being written into law. The US of the European Union are hard coding what a $1 claim means and what it must do in stress. In the US the Genius act sets a perimeter for payment. Stablecoins tighten and reserve expectations and bands yield for holding which is the up part and in Europe the markets and crypto assets. Mica regulation classifies stable coins. It's a legal species and hardwired redemption duties while imposing explicit breaks once the token starts functioning like a mass payments rail.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

So it's a two tier market contentious claim.

[Co-host / Analyst]

These regimes are not only stabilizing the stable coins, they are engineering the two tier market. The strictest design will look like cash.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Because convertibility is protected by statute, supervision, reserve discipline. Everything else will trade at a dollar.

[Co-host / Analyst]

In calm markets but will reprice like credit and a panic. The Genius act reflects an American instinct draw a bright line between money and investment and then police the boundary. The non negotiable element is the no interest clause. No issuer is supposed to turn a payment stablecoin into an Internet scale shadow deposit by paying yield simply by holding. That ban is not moralizing, it is to run prevention. If digital cash pays yield, it stops behaving like cash and starts behaving like a bank deposit without insurance. Obviously the bankers don't like that. The policy fight is already shifting to the edges. Reward programs, wrappers and indirect benefits that can mimic the interest. Also clarity is needed around the stables. The most explosive still unsettled question is cross border multi issuance. Once stablecoin brand markets as interchangeable but issue multiple legal entities across jurisdictions. So in a global run the strongest legal perimeter becomes a magnet as everyone tries to redeem where rights are best. That can overwhelm the reserves and operational capacity beyond the best jurisdiction. Even if the brand looks global and unified on the surface. For example, the bank of Italy urge clarity on multi issuance standards while the EU institutions debated whether interchangeability would embed financial stability risks. Multi issuance can also become a run risk in disguise.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

There's two tier future for stable coins. Tier one tokens will be constitutional cash, clear redemption rights, high quality liquid reserves.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Frequent disclosure and tight rules against yield for holding or tier 2 it'll be.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Synthetic cash wrappers, reward programs and proventer.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Arbitrage that behave like money during calm conditions and behave like risk assets when the redemption becomes crowded.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Stable coins are becoming institutions.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Crypto spent a decade asking whether code could become law. Stable coins are proven the inverse laws becoming the code that determines whether a peg survives the genius act and mica are competing with constitutions for Internet settlement. Different instincts about yield scale and broader.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Spillovers cross border my two satoshis Stable.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Coins will be weaponized as a central bank. Digital currency would be used just a different name. And of course the central bankers want to pick and choose the rules, not offer the yield on the stable coins because obviously it's in competition with their banks and dollars and ultimately have everything to us and I I'm not for it. Brian Armstrong tried to blow the whistle on it. He says I rather not sign this because it's going to put us backwards. Personally I don't trust the government, I don't trust pedophiles, and I don't trust anyone doing business with Epstein.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

But anyways, let's continue with the news. Bitcoin ETFs extend rebound as 145 million of fresh inflows hit the market that's right, US bought bagel and ETFs extended a tentative rebound after attracting 371 million in net inflows last night, adding to signs that institutional demand may be stabilizing following weeks of sustained selling spot. Bitcoin ETFS attracted 145 million of inflows as of Monday as Bitcoin hovered around 70G's baby. The inflows have yet to offset last.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Week'S 318 million of the outflows, 1.9.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Billion in redemptions year to date.

[Co-host / Analyst]

But the slowing pace of the losses.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

May point to a potential trend reversal.

[Co-host / Analyst]

For the crypto investment products.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Quoting coin shares outflows slowed sharp sharply to 187 million despite the heavy price pressure, said James Butterfield. Bitcoin's growing institutional presence has not driven early investors out of the market. Diamond hands, according to the senior executive of the Asset manager, Bay Wise. Even as the ETF saw the heavy outflows during the latest crypto sell off that pushed the biddy back towards the October 2024 price levels, Bernstein described the.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Recent downturn as the weakest bear case.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

And in fact, if you missed yesterday's episode podcast 2247, we did a deep.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Dive into Bernstein's prediction.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

They're saying 150, 000 still in play this year and they did say this.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Is the weakest bear case in Bitcoin history.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

You know, I mean and with no clear single catalyst behind the decline and market watches have linked volatility to the bitcoin increasing institutionalization, including the ETFs and concerns that the broader financialization could dilute.

[Co-host / Analyst]

The asset scarcity narrative. Still that Peter Shift has not meaningfully deterred any adopters, Bitcoin Chief Investment Officer.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Matt Hoogan said at the comments.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Hoogan acknowledged that a cipher punk libertarian.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

OG core the bitcoin supporters may be.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Uncomfortable with the growing influence of the large asset manager such as the black hack, but describe the group as a shrinking minority. Thank God for that.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Quoting Baltunes here in regards to talking.

[Co-host / Analyst]

With Hoogan, I asked Hogan on the ETF IQ today about my one slight worry Bitcoin, which is are the OG still into it? Because clearly the ETFs and MicroStrategy are where are they cashing out because they don't like that it's mainstream. Like how the kids left Facebook when the parents joined. And then his answer he says they invested a few thousand dollars and ended up with millions. The vast majority are still in it and they're being augmented by new institutional investors. I think the story that most OG crypto is giving up on the space just done align with the people that we talk to with the investors they're working on with a bitwise and I agree all the OGs are still OGs. You know, ask the Fed chair Nipinator, keep them nip and ain't. And next up feature story of the day we'll entertain a super cycle because as you know, CZ was preaching 2026 Bitcoin super cycle and then he changed his thesis a little more recently with the current correction. So we'll do a deep dive into that. We'll do a few minutes of Q A.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

All right fam.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

Now for our features away of the.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Day 2026 bitty super cycle we'll discuss CZ's prediction. CZ, it's very significant because he's the richest man in crypto, obviously the founder of the largest crypto exchange finance. And it says CZ walks back the bitcoin super cycle call because he was ultimately calling for a 2026 super cycle. But let's discuss and decipher this. CZ Shangping Zhao, the founder of the Banana, has recently attracted attention suggesting that the bitcoin could enter the super cyc year. This means the historical four year boom and bust pattern could be replaced by the sustained period of growth that lasts longer and reaches higher levels than the past cycles. CZ emphasized that this is a structural peter shift rather than a precise price prediction. He believes the factors such as institutional adoption, broader global acceptance and clear regulatory environments could change the way Bitcoin behaves in the market. So why does the super cycle matter? The super cycle is idea is not just about the short term price increase. It suggests a deeper transformation of the market. Number one Breaks the four year cycle Bitcoin historically has always followed the four year cycle.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

You guys already know.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Number two Institutional influence. The institutional money flowing into the biddy through the ETFs, corporate treasury allocations. Long term investments could provide sustained demand that is not yet tied to the having events. Number three Regulatory macro trends More support Supportive regulatory environment Global acceptance could help sustain the growth beyond the short term speculative spikes.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

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[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

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[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

But why did CZ soften the tone? Well, I'm gonna predict because the current correction is pretty, you know, 50 from the top. Even though the idea made the big headline CD didn't double down blindly. In more recent comments he openly acknowledged the current markets, environment and sentiment are fragile. A reminder that a super cycle is possible but still far from guaranteed. This doesn't look like a confirmed event so much as a framework for thinking about the markets if the structural conditions improve.

[Co-host / Analyst]

So what the does that mean for the price? Glad you asked.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

It doesn't mean CZ is predicting a specific outcome like XYZ by XYZ date.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Rather he's suggesting traditional timing signals may not apply in the same way, bro.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

More adoption, regulatory clarity and macro support.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Could sustain the growth beyond what we just saw before. Some analysts in the broader space have repeated the optimistic price target. 200 GS plus. I know we've entertained all sorts of.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Targets here on the show. Of course you know super cycle targets.

[Co-host / Analyst]

As high as a million dollars still in play. You know, and everything in between. What could confirm a super cycle? Sustained institutional inflows. Bullish price structure that doesn't collapse after rallies. Growing adoption metrics and real usage, not just speculation.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Macro conditions that favor the risk assets.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Over the extended periods. Important considerations. A super cycle is a theory.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Of course there's no guarantee price movements.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Are influenced by many factors including the global markets, regulation, liquidity and an investor psychology. Also consider short term price moves can still be volatile and will be volatile. Hence you can't short your dorks. And don't eat the pork. It's unpredictable.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

But there you go yo, let me know your thoughts surrounding what I just shared.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Do you think a super cycle? What do you think the probability is still for this year? Considering we're only 70 GS right now, we're at a price action lower than two years ago and in fact this.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Was the all time high price rat.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Right now from November of 2021 almost five freaking years ago.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

You know.

[Co-host / Analyst]

So let me know. I can't stick around long today.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Gotta go.

[Co-host / Analyst]

I will be back tomorrow on our special day.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

We shall celebrate multiple birthdays on the 11th. But I'll stick around for maybe two minutes here. So happy to read anything you want to share. Read your comments out loud again. Welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

50 corrections are normal.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

I'm still holding on to the prediction. One million for the cycle peak 2026 says the Oracle. Send it. Okay, happy birthday tomorrow to JVQ in the Nipsey. And it's also you got to tell us her name if you choose. Tammy. But Tammy Hatcher said her daughter's birthday is also on the 11th. She said that yesterday. Clementade. Anything can happen. Cabin. That's right. Someone else daughter. That's. That's right. Happy early birthday. Thank you, thank you.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Thank you very much.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

It's my daughter's New Year's. Oh, and fax's daughter's birthday is today. Well, happy New year. The fax's daughter, this Kong strikes for her. I told you Aquariuses are the greatest. Now we can add a lot of people to the Aquarius celebratory list. We got Fax's daughter, you know, we got Tammy Hatcher's daughter.

[Co-host / Analyst]

You got JV's daughter. You got JV.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

You got Nipinator, you got Max Kaiser. You got Michael Sailor, you got Paris Hilton. Who am I missing? We have. Oh yeah, the Oracle. Also Aquarius. What time is the show? It's gonna be same bit time, same bit channel for tomorrow and Thursday, Thursday throwback Thursday and then Friday will flipper like a Young Flipper to 3.

[Co-host / Analyst]

3Pm Eastern.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Be there, be square. L7, man. You don't want to miss it. Risk it for the biscuit, Aisha. Well, is that your daughter's name there? Facts. Happy birthday, Aisha. Hopefully I'm pronouncing that right. Correct me if I'm wrong. Slap me in the face, jv.

[Co-host / Analyst]

You know.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Later, fam. See you tomorrow, Oracle. Thank you. Thank you so much. It's like Aisha. Although they all say it slightly different. Cool. That's how I assumed I would say it. So again, Happy birthday, Aisha. 15 years old. Vax is getting old getting up there. Not as quite as old as I am, but you'll get there one day. She's got the guns training her like her dad.

[Co-host / Analyst]

I love it.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

Super Saiyan.

[Co-host / Analyst]

Bitcoin.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

Super Saiyan. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net.

[JV (Host of Bitcoin News Alerts)]

For the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.

[Co-host / Analyst]

It.