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2251: Bitcoin Rallies on CPI as $266K Bull Case Holds Despite ETF Outflows
00:28:52
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- [00:00]
JV
Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you can save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you can save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.
- [00:24]
Mayra Amit
Emoji moment from Sadie who writes I'm not crying, you're crying. This is what I said during my first appointment with my position at Mochi because I didn't have to convince him I needed a GLP one. He understood and I felt supported, not judged. I came for the weight loss and stayed for the empathy. Thanks Sadie. I'm Mayra Amit, founder of Mochi Health. To find your mochi moment, visit joinmochi.com Sadie is a Mochi member, compensated for.
- [00:53]
JV
Her story welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. Bitcoin in the green up 3,000 on the day. We just recaptured 69 G's baby in today's show I'll be sharing the latest ta everything you need to know in the market. Also note Bitcoin most undervalued since March of 2023 when we were trading at 20 000. I'll share the Bitcoin price metrics what you need to know. Also Bitcoin ETFs bleed 410 million as Standard Chartered slashes their Bitcoin target. We'll also discuss crypto CEO gets 20 years for 200 million dollar Bitcoin Ponzi. Also rich dad, poor dad Robert Kiyosaki warns the goal supply is theoretically infinite. I've been saying this for the longest time and Obviously we got one superior asset. We'll also be discussing JP Morgan keeps their Bitcoin bull case at 266,000. That's their prediction. I'll be sharing why, their outlook, their timeline. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Bitcoin is doing its thing. Up 3100 on the day. We did reclaim 69 after correcting down to 65 yesterday. Today is February 13th, Friday the 13th TGIF. I'm your host JV alongside my co host the Fed chair Nipinator Keeping them nipinating. Let's kick it off with our market watch. I got coin market cap pulled up. I think I forgot to pull up coin360 so let me do that in real time for you. As you can see everything back in the green. I love to see this looks like a big bottle of list serene. We have ether up six and a half percent on the day. Finally back above 2000. Bitcoin up over 4% on the day. Hovering just shy of 69 at the time of the live and overall gainers on gainers on gainers. Salana's up 9%. Litecoin up over 5%. Love to see this. Zcash a massive gainer on the day up 20%. Trading just shy of $275. Checking out coinmarketcap.com also good to see we finally got some momentum back with gaining of the crypto market up 4% on the day, trading at 2.36 trillion. That's total crypto market cap Bitcoin specific looking to regain above 1.4 trillion. Today it's 1.375. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. Humanity protocol up 37% followed by kite followed by the Z cash which al ifany are you bullish on for this bull. Holla at your boy. Checking out the Crypto Greed and fear index. We did touch a new bottom for the cycle, the lowest we've seen it in years which was a five yesterday. Today we rose just a little bit. It's currently a 9. Still in extreme fear. Anything 25 or below is considered extreme fear. And the silver lining, the lower this number goes, the more likely of a relief rally. And also checking out here the time chain calendar today is block height 936, 430 and you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1453 sets. So you know precisely what to do. You pick up the stats, put down those gats and pick up some bitcoin caps from a man Sergio over@bitcoin caps.net yeah man. Let's continue this pump. We're now up roughly 3, 300 on the day. Let's now dive into our TA aka astrology for the bitty Broskis. This is the one hour it's finally looking bullish again. Good Lord. We've had a horrific week in the markets. Just boring sideways trading action followed by corrections. But finally today we got a relief rally. Great way to end the week here at least the weekday Friday TGIF. But you'll notice 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Like seven of the last eight candles were in the green, which is a good sign. And we're above the core moving averages on the chart. Checking out the four hour similar. Very bullish three consecutive greens, maybe even four, but it looks like the fourth one is a corrective red after topping out at the 69 a little corrective candle. But here we are. Bullishness finally on the charts. Checking out the daily you'll notice big green candle on the day erasing yesterday's correction and the day before. That's actually a good sign. But right now a psychological resistance is at 70 G's. We're sitting just at roughly 69 again at the time of the live. Checking out the weekly we do get a weekly close in a couple of more days and we may flip this red candle into a green that's actually lit. We need a few more thousand to reclaim and then we can actually get a green candle close for the first time in the weekly chart for the past five weeks. And checking out the monthly unfortunately it is still a big red candle for the month of February. To reverse that we're going to need to jump at least 10,000, potentially more. But you're going to notice 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 consecutive red candles on the monthly chart, which is crazy. So we hit that firmament October 6th at 126. 3 the new all time high then it's been corrective ever since. Government shutdown did not help whatsoever. But here we are. Next up we'll dive into a little analysis. Bitcoin passes 69 on a slower US CPI print but the Fed rate cut odds main low Here you look in Bitcoin spiking on the soft January CPI data. This in particular is the one hour chart which we already did a live read on. The renewed upside came after the January print of the CPI falling short of expectations as confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics core CPI match estimates of 2 and a half percent while the broader reading was 2 and a half percent as outlined here. Reacting the Kabisi letter noted CPI inflation was now at multi year lows. Quoting them here from their report Core CPI inflation now at the lowest level since March of 2021. Odds. Excuse me? Odds of further interest rate cuts back on a rise like bitty samurais cutting through depravity. I call it cryptographic clarity. I declare alchemy. Kabisi referred to the prospects of the Fed cutting the interest rates at the next meeting in March. Market expectations as such an outcome previously at rock bottom not helped by the strong labor market performance. And after the CPI release odds of a minimal quarter of a percent cut remain less than 10% as per data from the CME Group Fed Watch Tool, another European head of research@bitwise arg that when viewed through the lens of truflation, an Alternative inflation meter. I like that name truflation because we know the inflation data. They just fudged the numbers to get us to believe whatever they want you to believe. Oh yeah, inflation under control, less than 2%. Nothing to say here. So I kind of like that word truflation. Yeah. So CPI release, not really a surprise there if you've been following the truflation. CPI which has plummeted sub 1% already. If you know, you know. Considering the outlook of the price action, participants had little reason to alter their cautious positions. Quoting Dan Crypto trades, Bitcoin still consolidating in this falling wedge. Attempted a breakout yesterday but got slam back down at the 68 level. That's the area to watch if this wants to see another leg up at some point. And the silver lining, we're well above 68, looking to, you know, reclaim 69, which we already did and we're hovering just below it at the time of the live. More analyst breakdown here says whether you like it or not, Bitcoin remains to be in an area where I think we'll see higher low come in. This is according to Maau Van Pop. He says it's fragile for show, but it doesn't mean that we're not going to be seeing some momentum coming in from the markets. There you go. Yo. Next up we'll discuss today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations.
- [09:00]
Capitas Representative
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- [09:35]
JV
S.com Bitcoin most undervalued price right now since March of 2023 when we're trading at 20 GS. Then we'll do the latest with the ETF outflows. Then we'll continue with the latest trends and headlines. And maybe we'll get an infinator indicator. Nipinator Liquidator Indicator. Stay tuned. Next up, Bitcoin Most Undervalued Since March of 2023 at 20J's the Bitcoin price metric shows that's right. Crypto quant data released on Friday reveals the key developments of the Bitcoin market value to realize value better known as the MVRV ratio metric. The classic bitty price gauge, the MBRV ratio compares the bitcoin market cap to the price at which the supply last moved. We also refer to this as the realized cap value below A1 implies the supply is undervalued to current prices. Last week it dropped below 60G's the lowest reading since March of 2023 when Bitcoin was trading at 20,000. Quoting them here following the all time high October 2025 Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for approximately four months now, approaching what can be considered undervalued zone. Generally, when the NVRV ratio falls below a 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting the price levels are nearing the undervaluation range. I've been saying that Bitcoin is heavily undervalued. In my humble opinion, if we didn't have the forces of evil at large suppressing the bitcoin price and doing everything in their power to control it and weapon do everything they can do to go against, you know, bitcoin and manipulate markets through futures derivatives, you know, etc, then I believe we'd already be hundreds of thousand. Easy peasy. And throw a number out there, 300 GS. So to buy Bitcoin today in the 60,000 range is a true gift. If you're to ask me MVRV Last registered below a 1 at the start of 2023, Dan questioned the validity of the Bitcoin 52% drop. That's the current drop from the 1263 all time high. However, unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin did not experience a sharp rise into a clearly overvalued zone during the recent bull cycle. Exactly. It was like minuscule. This distinction is important to recognize and as a result the current decline may also differ from the past market bottoms and it appears necessary to respond with this possibility in mind. Now two year rolling time frames we also got the Z score, the MVRV which divides the reading by the standard deviation of the market cap. This also fell to historic lows. Quoting the report, the current Z score of bitcoin is lower than during the bear market of 2015, 2018 and the COVID crash 20 and the winter of 2022. Also they point out the indicator suggests we're approaching the historical accumulation phase. The statistical deviation of the Z score screams opportunity, signaling that the bottom of this downtrend is being forged right now. There you go yo. Next story yo. Bitcoin ETFs bleed 410 million as Standard Chartered slashes their Bitcoin target. Now, first and foremost Standard Charter is a major banking institution. They've been very bullish on bitcoin calling for over 200 000. It looks like they just lowered their target. Also note Blackrock is the largest shareholder of Standard Chartered Bank. Last I looked. So surprise, surprise. I'm not surprised. U s spot Bitcoin ETF saw heightened selling on Thursday which outflows accelerating. The same day Standard Chartered lowered their forecast spot Bitcoin ETS recorded 410 million of outflows extending weekly losses 375 million. So unless Friday brings substantial inflows, the funds are on track for a fourth consecutive week of losses with assets under management nearing 80 billion down from the peak of almost 170 billion in October 2025. Now price action typically reflects the ETF inflows and outflows. So I'm assuming we're getting a significant amount of healthy inflows today and that's why the price action is up significantly as we just crossed above 69Gs. So that's a good sign as the past couple of days I' Obviously we had a significant amount of outflows. Now the selling coincided with Standard Chartered lowing is 2026 target from 150 GS to a hundred thousand. Warning prices could fall to 50,000 before recovering. They said here we expect further price capitulation over the next few months. The bank said in a Thursday report forecasting a bitcoin drop to 50 GS and Ether to 14 Honda. And as you know, the current bottom for bitcoin we touched a few days back was about 59, 9. They also go on to say once those lows are reached we expect a price recovery for the remainder of the year. Standard Chartered projecting year end prices of Bitcoin and eth of a hundred thousand and four thousand. Damn, that's nothing, you know to even smile about. So obviously they're bearish. They think that you just got to call it how they see it here. They're ultimately saying that the top is in that we achieved in October of the 126 and they see Bitcoin end in the year at a hundred with ether at 4000 which are pulled significantly below the all time high. The all time high, that's about 20% below what we've already hit. So they ultimately are projecting a 25% recovery from the current 50% correction and ether's all time high was close to 5,000. So this is significantly less as well. Then they go on regarding Salana ETFs the only winners amid the heavy crypto ETF flow and also extreme bear phase. Not yet. Here again some analysts are calling for 55 000. Now if you said that back when we were trading at 120, I say that sounds crazy but considering we just touched 59, yes, there's a strong probability we correct a little lower and potentially bottom out at 55. I don't know if the bottom is in. The reality is none of us really know. All we can do is share our theory which is an educated guess, our hypothesis, my hypotheses is nobody can see how I'll be dropping these mockeries lyrically. Perform armed robbery, flee with the lottery. Possibly they spotted me a little inspect the deck action Jackson for you tank fans out there. But back to the analysis. Market cycle indicators remain in the bear phase. Not the extreme bear, our bull market or I'm sorry our bull bear market cycle indicator has not entered the extreme bear regime that historically marks the start of the bottoming process which typically persists this for several months. Okay, next up this headline says crypto CEO gets 20 years for 200 million Bitcoin Ponzi scheme. And there's a different story than the one we covered the other day when there was the guy's name slipped my mind. But there was another Ponzi scheme. But these Ponzi scheme creators are being brought to justice. Unlike Epstein's you know, client list unfortunately. But anyways U. S federal judge in Virginia sentenced the chief executive of Patreon Group International to 20 years in prison for running a 200 million crypto investment scheme which defrauded tens of thousands of investors. According to the what I now reframed as the doc Department of corruption due to them covering up for Epstein of course the 61 year old rail Pala Fox, a dual US and Philippine citizen convicted of wire fraud and money laundering for what prosecutors described as a Ponzi that falsely promised daily. Yeah, so all these things that promise give me your bitcoin, we all trade it. We're the experts and we'll give you 10% per day or per week or per month or whatever the grift is. It's always a scam 100 of the time. Fam the U S Attorney's office for the Eastern District of Virginia said investors poured in 200 million into PGI between 2019 and 2021, including at least eight 200 Bitcoin valid at 171 million. And according to the prosecutors, victims suffer losses of 62 million. The sentencing concludes the criminal case brought by the doc Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you can save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you can save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states. From unsolved mysteries to unexplained phenomena. From comedy goal to relationship fails. Amazon Music's got the most ad Free top podcasts included with prime because the only thing that should interrupt your listening is, well, nothing. Download the Amazon Music app today. Department of Corruption and follows a parallel civil action by the SEC marking one of the larger crypto related fraud cases in the recent years by investor count and funds involved. So I guess this is the guy right here, yo. Let me know if you ever heard of them or seen them. I've never heard of this one. Never seen the guy. So this is all new to me. Another one bites the dust. Fake trading claims Nothing new under the sun. Three things cannot be long hidden. The sun, the moon and the truth. Court filing said Palafox told investors they engaged in large scale bitcoin trading capable of generating consistent daily profits. It's always fam. Prosecutor said the company was not even trading at a level sufficient to support that's all. That's right and that's why it's a Ponzi. They're just giving you old investors funds and that's why it's a Ponzi scheme. There's probably no trading going on. Or if there is trading, they're probably losing as most traders are degenerate losers. That's just a fact. But anyways. The doc said Palafox spent millions in investor funds on personal expenses. 3 million on luxury vehicles. 6 million on homes in Vegas and Los Angeles. Hundreds of dollars on penthouse suites. High end retail purchases. Authorities said they transferred at least 800,000 and 100 bitcoin to a family member. Despicable civil charges and international reach. The scheme began to unravel as regulators scrutinized PGI's trading claims and fund flows. And back in April of last year, the SEC filed a civil complaint alleging Pala Fox misrepresented bitcoin's trading activity and used new investor money to pay the earlier participants. Hence the Ponzi scheme. The complaint said PGI promoted AI powered trading platforms. Another thing to be weary of, AI training platforms. You can't lose. The AI is so intelligent, you're guaranteed to get XYZ return. Just send me your bitcoin and you'll never see it again. Federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of Virginia later unsealed criminal charges accusing them of wire fraud, money laundering. I mean, there's nothing new under the sun. We've seen this 10,000 times. I've, I've at least seen it, you know. But anyways, be weary of these Ponzi schemes. Next up, rich dad, Poor dad, author referencing Obviously Robert Kiyosaki warns, goal supply theoretically infinite. Says one asset superior. Can you guess which asset that may be? Let's dive right into the horse himself. And I'm not trying to be disrespectful. I meant to say from the horse's mouth. Kiyosaki says I'm often asked which is a better investment, gold or bitcoin? Obviously I would say both for diversification of assets and add silver. Yet if I had to choose only one asset, I would choose man. And how can he butcher the spelling of it and put buttcoin? Unacceptable. Rich dad, get your glasses on, damn it. Yeah, he put buttcoin. Unbelievable. But he means bitcoin. Why? Because gold is in theory infinite. When the price of gold rises, more gold miners, which I am, will dig more and more. And he nailed hit the nail on the head there. They can just dig more and more gold. And he's actually a gold miner. He's telling you straight up. Bitcoin by Design Ltd. 21 million, a number which we are near now. That means by design, no more bitcoin could be added after 21 million are mine. But as I referenced earlier, keep in mind, it's not fully mined to the year 2140, even though there's roughly 19 million out already now. Brilliant. That means the price bitcoin should only go up. Glad I bought my bitcoin early. I am still actively mining for gold and drilling for oil. Take care. Then he says here I meant to say gold is infinite in theory and bitcoin is finite by design. My apologies, but you didn't fix the buttcoin bro. And someone pointed that out. Did you say butcoin on purpose? Just a troll. If so, well played it, sir. Did he respond to that? Let's see. No, of course it's common. The I and you are right next to each other on the keyboard. So he's not trolling, it just is what it is. Also, another Tweet here dated February 9th. Just purchased another 600 US Silver Eagles. Today's spot price 82 or sorry 82 an ounce. Still believe silver will reach 200 an ounce or more in 2026. Wow. The US dollar is in trouble. Savers of the fiat currency, hence fake dollars are the biggest losers. Take care. Let me know if you agree disagree with Kiyosaki and we'll. Yeah, that's pretty much the bulk of what I wanted to share. Let me know if you agree. Disagree. Bitcoin superior to gold? Obviously. I mean not even a question at this point unless you ask Peter Schiff, he'll double down on the gold. But besides Peter, I don't know anyone else you know. All right fam. Now for our future story of the day. JP Morgan Chase keeps their Bitcoin bull case at 266,000 and yeah, target remains. Let's break her down. JP Morgan, largest bank of the US sticking with its long run bitcoin upside framework including the 606 or sorry 266,000 per coin. Even as the bank flags near term stress signals around mining economics and still chilly risk sentiment heading into 2026. The bank's latest read hinges on two pillars, a soft floor around the bitcoin production costs which I believe is currently in the 50, maybe 55, 000 range and evaluation model that maps Bitcoin's potential market cap against private sector gold investment on a volatility adjusted basis. In the near term. JP Morgan frames the current drawdown as a familiar stress test for miners. The bank estimates the cost to Produce Bitcoin is roughly 77, 000 while Bitcoin was trading in the mid-60s and currently we're closer to 70 putting spot below the break even for less efficient operators. Now obviously this number is going to vary depending upon electricity costs and many other factors. So I guess it's just a average or thrown out there, you know, estimate ballpark figure. Historically, JP Morgan argues production cost tends to behave like a soft support rather than a hard line. The mechanism is reflective if if the prices stay below probability for long enough, the weaker miners shut down, difficulty adjusts lower and the average cost of production falls, effectively tightening the band that previously sat above the spot. The bank also keeps its broader market tone constructive for this year 2026, leaning on the idea that institutional capital, not retailer corporate treasuries in the marginal buyer is the marginal buyer that can restart the flow when the macro backdrop stabilizes. And as JP Morgan put it, we are positive on the outlook for 2026 and expect increased inflows into digital assets driven by institutional investors. JP Morgan's266,000 target is not pitched as a 2026 call, but as the mathematical endpoint to a gold parity thought experiment. In the bank's model, matching the scale of private gold investments, which is roughly 8 trillion excluding the central banks, implies a Bitcoin price of 266, 000, a level the analysts themselves described as unrealistic in the near term. The bridge between the unrealistic now and possible later and JP Morgan's framing is the volatility. The bank pointed to the bitcoin to gold volatility ratio around 1.5, unusually low by historical standards, and argues that gold surge since October alongside rising gold volatility have improved the bitcoin relative appeal over the long run. Quoting them here, the large outperformance of gold versus Bitcoin since last October, coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term. Yeah, and let's not forget Bitcoin is actually finite in gold. They can always increase the supply, which they do 1 to 2% per year on year over year. Now JP Morgan stance effectively spit splits the tape into two time frames. A messy adjustment process if today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance, do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive, you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law not available in all states.
- [26:28]
MIDI Health Representative
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- [28:25]
JV
Bitcoin remains below the mining break evens in a larger duration Bet that institutional inflows and regulatory progress in the US can reprice the assets role versus gold as 2026 unfolds. So let me know your thought on their price action of 266,000. Now naturally gold recently hit all time highs alongside precious metal silver I believe Gold surpassed, I think in the 5,700 range the market cap surpassed 40 trillion. And to put that into perspective, Bitcoin market cap is like less than one and a half trillion I think like you know and the total crypto market cap, you know we peaked out above 4 trillion but it's currently well below I think. What do we say earlier? Let me give you a actual legit number. Let me go to coin market cap just to put it into perspective, total crypto market cap today is only 2.3 trillion. Bitcoin market cap is only 1.3 trillion. So effectively the total gold market cap and maybe lower today because we're not at the all time high. It did correct a lot but just ballpark, you know it's like 30x larger if Bitcoin were to 30x in value. I mean you run the math, you know we're talking multi million dollar bitcoin price action. But nonetheless, let me know your thoughts. And that's coming from JP Morgan Chase, who has been fighting bitcoin for years on years before they fully started to embrace it and vocalizing it in a positive light. More recently, never forget that CEO of JPM, Mr. Demon, as I call him, Jamie Damon. He was fighting bitcoin for the longest time as he was buying it for his trading desk. He was threatening his employees if they touched or traded bitcoin, they'd be fired. You know, this was the mainstream fud of back then before they started publicly embracing it. But they were already embracing it and collecting it as they were fighting it because this is what criminals do that are connected to Epstein.
- [30:27]
Bitcoin Enthusiast
When the dip has come.
- [30:33]
JV
And the.
- [30:33]
Bitcoin Enthusiast
World is dark, bitcoin is the only light we'll see. No, I won't be afraid no I won't be afraid oh I won't be afraid as long as you huddle, huddle Bitcoin with me so Satoshi Satoshi.
- [31:10]
MIDI Health Representative
Stand.
- [31:11]
Bitcoin Enthusiast
By me whoa huddle now stand by bitcoin huddle with me if the market we rely upon should crash and fall or the price should drop into the sea I won't shell I won't cry no I won't shelter too as long as as you huddle, huddle bitcoin with.
- [31:52]
MIDI Health Representative
Me.
- [31:56]
Bitcoin Enthusiast
So family family stand by me oh huddle now Stand by bitcoin HUD. And bitcoiners bitcoiners Stand by me oh stand by stand by BTC stand by me Whenever bitcoin dips Won't you waddle with me oh stand by me Won't you huddle now Stand by bitcoin huddle with me oh so Satoshi family family stand by me oh huddle now stand by bitcoin huddle sa.
- [33:37]
JV
And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode Hoddle.
- [34:00]
MIDI Health Representative
Whether you're solving murders during breakfast, cracking cold cases on your commute, or playing amateur detective at bedtime, Amazon Music's got millions of podcast episodes waiting. Just download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite true crime podcasts ad free included with prime.