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2257: Historic Bitcoin Bottom Signal Flashes — Last Time, BTC Rallied 1,900%
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you can save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you can save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states. Ever notice how ads always pop up at the worst moments when the killer's identity is about to be revealed? During that perfect meditation flow on Amazon Music, we believe in keeping you in the moment. That's why we've got millions of ad free podcast episodes so you can stay
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completely immersed in every story, every reveal, every breath.
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Download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite podcasts. Ad free included with Prime. Welcome Bitcoin Fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. Fed Chair Nipinator is back. He spent two nights at the animal hospital. He's feeling better today. So I just want to say thank you for all the prayers. Bitcoin just recovered above 67 000. It's a beautiful thing. In today's show I'll be breaking down the latest TA where the price action likely heading next. Also Google searches for bitcoin going to zero are at the highest since 2022. That was around the time of the FTX fallout and Teraluna collapse. Pure bear bearishness. It's insane. People genuinely searching for bitcoin going to zero right now. But I'll be breaking it down for you. That's due to the quantum concerns. We'll also discuss Bitcoin ETFs are sitting on 53 billion in net inflows despite the recent outflows. The latest from Bloomberg also Trump family courts, Wall street leaders at Mar Lago Crypto forum. We'll also be discussing the U S Clarity act to pass hopefully, hopefully, hopefully by April according to the Senator. We also discussed Bitcoin bottom rally signal that preceded a 1900% rally flashing right now. And spoiler alert if we were to soar 1,900% that take Bitcoin above 1.2 million per coin send it. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is POT episode 2257. I'm your host JV. Genuine smile on my face. We got back to Fed Chair Nip who was at the animal hospital for two over two nights. Like three, four days. Two nights. He was in very bad shape. Extreme case of gastritis and pain and suffering and you can just see it on the little guy. So I had to take him to the vet. Now he's better so that's good. It only cost $22,000 but well worth it for the fed chair. And I'm exaggerating a little bit, but anyways, it's good to have him back here. Thank you for all the continued prayers. It means a lot. As you know, bitcoin is finally back in the green. After four or five days of correcting trading sideways action. We just recaptured 67 lots happening in the market. So without further ado, let's uh, dive right in uh to our market watch. As you can see, coin360, uh, Bitcoin in the green today. A lot of the alts pulling back but some are in the green but very modest. It's still overall market trading sideways. Not a lot happening right now. Checking out coinmarcal.com the crypto market cap down another 2%. This is mind boggling. We're all the way down to 2.27 trillion. It feels like we were at four and a half trillion all time high, which we were October. It's crazy. Then the bitcoin Market cap is 1.33 trillion. Crypto Green and fear index on coin market cap is an 11. It may be a little different from a different source which we'll get into next. But checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got kite midnight and stable leading the pack. Checking out the crypto green and fear index here. It shows we're actually a nine in extreme fear yesterday and eight and last week we hit the cycle low. These are the deaths of the lowest we have seen the crypto greed and fear index since I believe 2022. The bear when we had the fallout of FTX and Teraluna and all that, you know. So we're right back of five. It was pretty wild last month. We were 32 in fear. It was all good just a week ago. It feels like it but checking out the time chain calendar, Today's block height 937, 450JV. Keeping it drifty, you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1494 SATs. So you know what to do. You pick up those sats, you put down the gats and pick up some bitcoin caps from man Sergio at bitcoin caps net. Here's some live chart show. This is the one hour you're going to notice we do get some green candles here. Finally a Little momentum after trading sideways and downwards for the past week. But we did cap out at 67. We're trying to break above it. I know it's not that exciting right now, but it is what it is. Checking out the four hour, you're also going to notice a big green candle that ascended us to 67 and then we capped out at a red candle formed at that height. And now we're retesting at 66,9 at the time of the live. Checking out the daily, the tail, the tape. I like the daily chart. Just, it's easy. Every candle represents a day. You can see today we're barely in the green, a day before red, day before red, day before barely in the green, then red, you know, green, green, blah blah blah. Checking out next weekly as we approach the new closing on Sunday, let's see how we're looking. Not good. One, two, three, four, five red consecutive candles. This could be potentially the sixth. It's been very corrective. Checking out the monthly 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 red candles. And I am very sus that we reverse this candle and what do we got? 28 days in February. It's Friday the 19th. That gives us another nine days. A little skeptical we could flip it green. I mean keep the possibility open. Not a perma bear or nothing but 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 red candles on the monthly. That means as we enter March, that'll be the six month we have the opportunity to reverse six months of bear. Will it happen or will the the bearishness just continue and hitting lower lows throughout the rest of this year? Potentially throughout the rest of next year until the having of 2028. Let me know next step. We'll do a little analysis paralysis. Bitcoin road map to the bottom says 58 G's. The Binance cost basis is a crucial according to the analysts. That's right. Analysis from Barack. And I'm not talking about the one with the transgender hubby by the name of Michael. Mike, my Michael. Oh, I mean Michelle. You know who I'm referencing? A contributor to the on chain analytics platform cryptocurrencies58.7 as the Biddy bulls next line in the sand. Do you agree, disagree or agree to disagree Holler. Which four levels am I watching in bitcoin? The four key realized price levels essential for the tracking of the long term trend. In my view the realized price refers to the aggregate cost basis of the bitty supply or the subset of it. When bitcoin moves on chain the realized price becomes that at which it was Last involved in a transaction, realized prices that involve larger groups of coins can often function as market support for the resistance zone. Also, bitcoin has been a dropping ever since it lost the new whales cost basis, a classic bare cycle signal. The newer bitcoin whales aggregate buy in price is 88,8700. Clearly underwater, but with the price now far below 3 others now on the radar, the older whales realize the price is the lowest of the selection of 416, while the Bitcoin overall cost basis is sitting at 54, 700. So between the current spot price of these two levels, however, lies the realized price for deposit addresses on the major global exchange ban. As Michellin would say, from here, the two key supports I'll be washing over in the Bance UDA RP and the Bitcoin RP, which are sitting at 580007 and 54 0007. As pointed out here, the reason once bitcoin falls below the new whale cost basis, it historically tends to at least test the realized price. And the only support standing between here and there is 58, 700. Now, a lot of you are firm believers, we're going to correct even lower during the current bear we're in and the next logical target. I mean we already touched 59,9. So can we very probable if we continue to correct lower. Absolutely. Bitcoin losses echo the 2022 bare market bottom. That's right, Dark Foss reported similarly conspicuous levels of the realized losses from the bosses for the bitcoin investors. He wrote here, at its peak February 5th, realized losses exceeded 30,000 BTC. I want to talk to Samson immediately. This remains well below the extreme levels observed during the last bare market when the realized losses reached 92,000 bitcoin and 80,000 on separate. Nevertheless, it is still a clear sign that a capitulation phase has taken place. And if you don't know, do your research, mofo, and we'll leave it at that. Next story of the day, let's get to this one. Google searches for bitcoin going to zero are at the highest since 2022. So people are genuinely concerned right now. That tells me that they think bitcoin's gonna go to zero. In fact, they just had a conversation with some, like a professional, I won't get into it because it's private, but he's like, I would never touch bitcoin or crypto. It's. It's gonna go to zero. I was just like, people genuinely believe this shit. It's crazy. Now don't get me wrong, a lot of cryptos are going to go to zero. They're mostly scams but bitcoin cannot be categorized as crypto and that's part of the problem. I want to point that out but yeah, Google searches for bitcoin going to zero have searched to their highest level since the post FTX panic November of 2022. And also we've got the cryptogreed and fair index as low as it's been back then at a 5. You spike aligns with a Bitcoin latest drawdown from 10-06-2025 to the all time high which was 1263 to the new bottom which is 599 and we're currently at around 67 at the time of the live so we're currently below 50% from the top to the local bottom. At the same time the crypto greed and fear index as I referenced the lowest level we've seen in a long time Google trend show the worldwide interest in the phrase and bitcoin going to zero. I guess Dan Pena must be relative relevant again, right? He's the one. It's going to zero. Last hit comparable levels early of 2022 when FTX froze the withdrawals. Today the bitcoin fears are different. Crypto intelligence, platform perception analyze narrative intelligence across 650 crypto media sources sharing its findings. Founder Fernando said The fear in 2022 was driven by internal events, cascading failures, centralized lenders and one of the biggest industry largest exchanges FTX SBF is in prison. But he also said Mike, oh Mike McGlone is a clown. Yo. I was watching the interview earlier I was referencing when we're doing our talk but yeah he's claiming bitcoin's going to 10,000 but he's also half and believes that bitcoin has an unlimited supply. He literally said that in this interview. I was in shock and Lawrence Leopard's face when he says this is so classic. I suggest everyone watch that new video clip. You'll see it trending on X. But yeah there's not an unlimited supply of Bitcoin McGlone so apparently you don't know the you're talking about but obviously his narrative is to spread fud tell everyone bitcoin's gonna crash to zero or 10,000 and there's an unlimited supply. But anyways also the actual counterpoint nobody has synthesized and is that while bitcoin is zero searches are a spiking the institutional buyers are accumulating. So do you think if the institutions thought Bitcoin had an opportunity to go zero, they'd be accumulating right now. Absolutely not. We got sovereign wealth funds in Abu Dhabi increasing their ETF exposure. We covered this the other day. I bet there was a position over 700 million, another one over 500 million. So obviously the people with the money know what's going on. But maybe the retail fear is real because you know it's easy to manipulate the masses and just look at the state of the world we're in. Macro fears Quantum. Yeah. So this is the reason why the surge in bitcoin to zero searches unfolding as backdrop of the record high macro anxiety. The World Uncertainty Index. There's actually a World Uncertainty Index. Wow. Which counts references to uncertainty and economists Intelligence unit. When I see the word intelligence I automatically assume propaganda. But yeah. Is sitting at the highest level in the Federal Reserve bank of St Louis time series exceeding the peak scene around 2008. Global financial crisis in the 2020 no vid shock research underpinning the index finds the spikes of global uncertainty tend to proceed. Weaker output, slower growth as companies delay the investment and hiring. Quantum fears have also been persistent in the background since October 2025. But said that fear of quantum spikes alongside price drops not independently so people are only concerned when the price is dropping. They're not concerned about the quantum threats when we're in a bull is what they're saying. Bitcoin quantum searches peaked in November 2025 and has been fallen steadily since. It's an amplifier of the existing bearish sentiment, not a standalone driver. The bitcoin going to zero search trend is likely a composite A price crash fear plus quantum existential fear plus mglone style macro doom all converging in the same window. All right, here we go next story of the day yo. Still lots to share headline here. Bitcoin ETF still sitting on 53 billion of net inflows despite the recent outflows according to the Bloomberg. That's my word US Bobby going any test may be seeing the heavy outflows lately but the broader picture is telling a different story. Bal Chunes says the net inflow into the Bitcoin ETF peaked at 63 billion in October when we hit the all time high and now stand at about 53 billion. So we shed 10 billion even after months of redemptions. Quoting them here, the net net plus 53 billion in only two years. The figure far exceeds the Bloomberg early projections which have called for inflows of 5 billion and even 15 billion. Yeah we basically 10x that in other words, the recent withdrawals haven't erased the bigger success story. Despite the Bitcoin roughly 50 pullback from the high, institutional money hasn't fled the same pace, suggesting many investors are holding for the long term rather than the panic selling the US spot Bitcoin ATS were approved early 2024 quickly became a dominant force in the market, most successful one ever launched. Bitcoin went on to hit the new all time high ahead of the April 2024 having event break in historical trends with the ETF accumulation accelerating through 2025 peaking in October as prices surged the current firmament 1263 Bitcoin faces an uncertain 2026 as cycle debate intensifies to be sure, 2026 shaping up to be a challenging year. We're currently down 50% plus from the all time high and there's a lot of speculation that the four year cycle is still intact and we're going to resume bear winter this year and next year before returning to an all time high next year. The having is not till 2028 so you know there's a divide and then there's others who believe the extended cycle theory is in play and we'll still hit a new all time high there this year and you ain't seen nothing yet. Which camp are you in? Let me know in the comments. Matt Hogan and Ryan Ramus go further suggest Bitcoin may be breaking from the long standing four year pattern all together do the growing influence of the institutional capital Quoting them here, the wave of institutional capital that began entering the space 2024 like Mr. Lee entering the Dragon is likely to accelerate in 2026 and major wealth platforms are suggesting this like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. Let me know if you agree. Disagree despite the rapid institutional adoption through the spot Bitcoin etf, Bitty appeared to lose the retail attention last year as investors gravitated towards other high growth themes like Pokemon. Can't make this up, but yeah a Pokemon card did sell for 16 and a half million and the buyer is Anthony Scaramucci's son Anthony Jr and the new ultimate store value is a Pikachu. But here's the thing, there's only one Pikachu illustrator. It's a one on one allegedly PSA 10 but I don't buy into the but Bitcoin there's 21 million so I must say Pikachu has more scarcity but only that particular card is Pikachu the new Bitcoin? I don't know but there you go. Yeah personally I rather have. I don't want to fib. I was gonna say I'd rather have one bitcoin than the Pikachu. But the Pikachu at today's going value is what it just sold for 16 million. So reality, I'll take the Pikachu and I'll just trade it for a bunch of the bitties. How many bitties can I get with a 16 and a half million Pikachu? That's the question. But what if you had to. Hold on, here's a real genuine question. If you had the opportunity to take the 16 million dollar Pikachu or. Let's just be realistic though. Instead of one Bitcoin, 10 Bitcoin or a Pikachu worth 16 million today, the Bitcoin today, 10 of them is only worth 670,000. Would you take the $16 million Pikachu value today or the 10 Bitcoin D at 670,000 today if you couldn't touch or trade either or for 20 years? That's a long fucking time. I get it. But my question is, do you think Pikachu will maintain and continue to increase in value or do you think bitcoin will outpace it? If you had 10 of them, that's a legit question. Let me know. You know, and also keep in mind, there were board 8 yacht club racist NFTs going all across the market in the previous cycle and they were selling for millions. Snoop Dogg paid millions. Justin Bieber, you know, all the Epstein folk, they were flexing, all the Diddy folk, flexing their NFT monkeys, you know, and they spend millions. Some of Those million dollar NFTs today are worth hundreds of dollars or a few thousand dollars. So it was a fad is what I'm trying to say. I'm not calling Pokemon a fan. I'm dressing like him, for Christ's sake. I'm a big fan of the Pikachu, but what are your thoughts? Let me know, okay? Trump is always in the headlines. Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad. Let's see what this is. Trump family courts Wall street leaders at the Mar A Lago crypto forum. Apparently they're discussing the tradfi. Apparently. But yeah. Trump family owned Margo was the home to traditional finance giants, US government officials, crypto execs. In a crypto forum on Wednesday hosted by the family sprawling crypto company, we had Coinbase CEO Mr. Clean, better known as Armstrong and Banan founder Czong Ping Xiao. And Trump. Donald Trump, not Donald Duck. We're Talking to Trumpster pardon Last year this easy the exclusive World Liberty Forum event alongside Goldman Sachs. You know we don't Trust these mofos. CEO David Solomon the heads of the Nasdaq, the New York stock so all the big wigs all meeting together. What they discussing the event saw traditional finance execs, u S regulators embrace the crypto, with Solomon, a longtime crypto skeptic, saying on stage that he now owns a little bitcoin. Well that's comforting. A bitcoin skeptic now owns a little bitcoin, whatever that means. But anyways, the great irony was the whole world has gone full circle, said Eric Trump. There's people in this room that were probably on the opposite side of us that were canceling bank accounts for us, that were kicking us out of the big banks for no reason other than the fact my father was wearing a hat that said Make America Great again. Commodities Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig, the head of the agency pushing to regulate the crypto industry, was also in attendance alongside Republican Senator Ashley Moody and Bernie Moreno World Liberty Announces Tokenization Tie up for the Trump Hotel that's right. Breaking news World Liberty announced the event it had partnered with tokenization firm Securitas, Ironic enough with plans to tokenize loan revenue interest in the upcoming Trump branded resort in Maldives. This is apparently the place to be. When I lived in China when people got married they all do the honeymoon and Maldives that's ultimately like equivalent to Hawaii for us in the United States. Let me know if any of you guys been there now. The company said it was a part of the broader strategy to design, structure and distribute World Liberty branded tokenized real world asset offerings. The Trump Organization said November it would tokenize the development of the project, which is being built by DAR Global. The resort set to be completed in 2030 and feature 100 luxury villas. World Liberty said that the offering will give the investors both the fixed yield and loan revenue stream from the resort, given exposure to both potential income distributions and potential for certain profits upon any future sale. Also added the offering is only available to eligible accredited investors of the US and would be accessed via select third party partners and wallets. So pretty much high net worth individuals I'm assuming. Next up US Clarity act to pass hopefully by April, according to Senator Bernie Moreno. That's right, the US Clarity act, the highly anticipated bill aimed at providing greater clarity for the US Crypto industry, could make it through Congress in just over a month, according to the Senator. He says hopefully by April. Now this was during an interview at Trump's Mar? A Largo, which just happened yesterday. Coinbase CEO Armstrong joined Moreno for the interview, except explaining that they were the representatives from the Crypto Banking and U S Congress of the WLF crypto forum to reach a solution on market structure. He says one of the big issues that did come up in the past was this idea of stables on rewards. According to Armstrong, the banking industry previously raised concerns that offering stablecoin yields could undermine traditional banking and shift deposits and interest away from the banks. And while Armstrong had issues with the draft bill and withdrew his support from the Clarity act in January, he said there is now a path forward there. We can get a win, win, win outcome, he says. A win for the crypto industry, a win for the banks, the banks and a win for the American consumer to get to the President Trump crypto agenda through the finish line so we can make crypto the America capital of the world. Armstrong said that crypto exchange previously couldn't support the bill because it includes provisions that ban interest bearing stables and portions of the US SEC as a primary regulatory crypto industry. The White House has reportedly disappointed the Coinbase decision to withdraw the support, describing the move as unilateral action blindsiding the administration officials. That's because Brian Armstrong said yo Bill, I don't want to push the industry backwards. They don't trust and I don't blame him. Moreno added the delay stems from getting hung up on the stable rewards which he said shouldn't be a part of the equation. Crypto prediction platform Poly Markets odds of the U.S. clarity act passing in 2026 briefly searched to 90 as of Wednesday before falling to 72% at this time the American people are sick and tired of the open borders and that's why we got elected. They were sick and tired of the high inflation and that's sick and tired of the out of control government. I'll be straight up. The only thing I'm sick of tired of the government right now is lying on Epstein's behalf, minimizing the impact of the victims, pretending they don't don't exist and nothing to see here. You know that's what pisses me off. Nothing's more important. Save the kids is what I'm saying. Now for our feature story of the day. Bitcoin bottom signal that preceded a 1900 rally flashing again. I need to talk to Samson. Are we talking the Omega candle? No, beyond that we're talking a 1.25 million bitty price action. If history is a repeat, that's right. The bitcoin short term huddler stress has dropped to the lowest level since the 2018 bear market bottom According to check on chain the short term Hodler bollinger band metric you can see on your screen shows the oscillator falling into the deepest oversold territory in nearly eight years. That's insanity. That's right. Bitcoin the doing God hacking humanity. The indicator applies bollinger bands to the gap between the biddy spot price of the average cost basis for the short term huddlers to find his wallets holding bitcoin for less than 155 days just blaze. When the oscillator pierces the lower statistical band it signals the bitcoin's trading significantly below with the recent buyers paid beyond normal historical volatility. Historically this signal has aligned with the macro bottom. For instance a similar oversold print appeared in the late 2018 preceding a roughly 150% rally within a year than 1900% Bitcoin price increase over the next three years. All I gotta say send it and this is the chart here. Bitcoin short term huddler bollingers most oversold in eight years and you can see that from 3000 to 60 GS was a 1900 increase. If we increase 1900 again we're talking over a million ballpark 1.25 million just in as I'm saying it also flashed out of the November 2022 bottom which proceeded to 700 rally to the record high of 126 additionally realized losses amongst the bosses. The short term huddler whales have stayed muted since the Bitcoin October 2025 peak which was October 6th of 126 three to be exact. But who's counting besides the JV? Nobody. These metrics hint at a seller exhaustion. Aligning with the bottom outlook of the multiple analysts including those of the crypto custodian platform matrix porch. You can't short your dork and don't eat the pork. Wells Fargo also sees near term liquidity tailwind building for the biddy. That's right and a note cited by the CNBC said the larger than usual U. S tax refunds in 2026 could revive the so called yellow trade with as much as 150 billion potentially flowing into equities and bitcoin by the end of March. So we will we get a full on out reversal from the five months of bearishness. We have the October, the November, the December, the January bear, the February bear will the March, turn to the bull. Let us know, you know. Let me know your thoughts. And welcome, everyone, to the Q A segment of the live stream.
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Yeah, they said money can buy happiness oh yeah Guess I'm laughing all the way to cold storage oh yeah wake up check price down again I smile still stacking, still laughing Been bullish a while My friends buy lattes, I buy dips they post brunch pics I post no scripts got memes for days receipts for years Stacking hope through all these tears if it's a clown world I'm the hunk that wins Cause I bought my freedom with my grins and bitcoin's going doink doink doink Stay humble, stack funny keep your coins keep your sunny left through fear stack too lows Bitcoin knows what fe I don't stay humble, stack funny I'm rich in memes not in money Keep the foot I'll keep my soul block by block I'm in control they talk great, I talk heavens they chase, yield I chase stacking I don't need a trend, I need a chain One with truth that don't complain I'm orange pill not overbill Proof of work forever thrilled if you can't laugh through a red day dip then you're missing and half the trip they say we're crazy crazy but crazy built the
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we
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and satoshi rolled it downhill the coins going do do do do Stay humble, stack funny keep your coins keep your sunny left through fear stack through lows Bitcoin knows we I don't stay humble stack funny I'm rich in memes not in money Keep the foot my soul block by block I'm in control yo I'm just here vibing through the cycles Humility in the stack and comedy in the crash. Pity up roger out.
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Foreign. And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode Hoddle.