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2258: Bitcoin to $500K — Scarcity Math Says the Move Is Inevitable
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Welcome bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. Bitcoin pumping in the green. Up 1,400 on the day. Looking to reclaim 68,000. We'll be breaking down the latest TA. Also, Bitcoin ETF shed 166 million as Bitcoin heads for the worst start in years. We have five consecutive bare months and will the bearish momentum continue? Will the bulls come to the rescue? We also discussed South Korean authorities Under fire over $43 billion bit thumbnail Bitcoin error. That's a hell of an error. We also discussed quantum fears aren't behind Bitcoin's 46% drop. According to the bitcoin developer. One of we also discussed bitcoin lightning network does exceed 1 billion in monthly volume. I'll be sharing the latest river report. We also discussed bitcoin to top 500,000 by 2029. Entrepreneur makes the bold call. I'll be breaking it down for you. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is pot episode number 2,258. I'm your host, JV alongside the Fed chair, my co host Nipinator who's feeling strong today. As you know, past few days he was overnight emergency vet care and it was pretty wild. He had a very rough week. But we're stabilizing him. He's feeling better and things are good. He's back home, you know, co hosting the show, taking over the world like a young pinky in the brain. But here we are up, currently above 67. We were just looking to retest 68. We just dropped a few lots of volatility in the market to be expected. And happy tgif, thank God it is Friday. Kicking it off with our market watch. It's good to see the bulk of the market in the green today though very modest. You can see bitcoin up trading up 1.34% on the day. Ether looking to reclaim 2000 up almost 2% on the day. Cardano and Litecoin are top gainers just over 5%. Checking out coinmark cap.com. finally, crypto market cap back on the rise but barely up 1% on the day, sitting just above 2.31 trillion. Uh, the bidding market cap 1.345 trillion of checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got kite leading the pack up 19%. Layer zero up 14% and morpho up 12%. And checking out the crypto greed and fair index. Today it's a seven Extreme fear. Yesterday a nine, last week a nine. And the bottom we have seen for the cycle for the past few years is a 5 which was only just a few days back. And last month was a 24 extreme fear. And checking out time chain calendar today is block height 930, 700556 and you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1486 SATS. So at this point you know precisely what to do. Pick up the stats, put down the gats and pick up some bitcoin caps from sergio over@bitcoin caps.net we just did our market watch. So next let's look at some of the live charts. This is the one hour you're going to notice a big red corrective candle on the screen. After we just went to test 68, we corrected right back down about 900 and now we're currently sitting just above 67, 000 at the time of the live checking out the four hour you're going to notice similar big red candle last printed before that we had a green and the red just reversed all the green. Unfortunately, checking out the daily, you're also going to notice barely in the green on the day. And yesterday we did get a green candle, which is nice, but prior to that we had like virtually five consecutive red candles. It's been a very bearish week overall checking out the weekly 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 red candles. This final candle you see is going to be printed officially in the books not till Sunday, so we still have opportunity to reverse it. But we would need to probably pump back above 70 GS to switch that out. I don't know if that will happen over the weekend. I'm a little doubtful, to be quite honest. I think we'll have a lot of continued volatility through the weekend. Maybe we jump back 69, maybe we test 70, but then we could jump right back down by Sunday, Monday, but you never know. Remember there's no telling what the cost paid. Ms. Yelling bananas. Also 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 consecutive red candles on a monthly. Unfortunately, it looks like February will be a Febu bear right in alignment with the October, November, December and January. Maybe March will switch because it's March, it's one syllable, you know, it's not February, you know, so it's not a Febu bear or January or an October, November, December bear. It's March. So maybe we'll get a break. I don't know. We'll see. Let me know. But anyways let's do a little ta Bitcoin options market structure leans towards 60,000 retest of February. All the not all but a lot of the analytics platforms and experts are all suggesting we break below 60,000 and that will be retested here in the upand cominging I guess week and a half. That's there's only actually eight days left so just one full week left of the month of February. But yeah, Bitcoin price entered a downward spiral after rejecting 71 Sunday despite successfully defending 66 throughout the week Options markets reflect growing fears professional traders avoid the downside price exposure Even with the rsi, the stock market, the gold prices traders seem to be effectively betting on a 60,000 retest rather than overreacting to the bitty price dips. Meanwhile as the bitcoin put options traded at a 13% premium and the call instruments on Thursday. So under these neutral conditions the Delta SCO metric ranges typically negative 6 to plus 6% indicating balanced demand for the upside downside strategies. The fact that these levels have been sustained over the past four weeks shows that professional sentiment is leaning heavily towards caution. The bearish bias is a clear in the neutral to bearish positioning seen in the bitcoin options. Let me know if any of you are options or futures traders. I'm assuming most of you are not, but do let me know. Weak institutional demand for the Bitcoin ETS fuels discontent and this is natural. We've seen this. Whenever there's more outflows than inflows, we're in a corrective bearish stage or phase. And that's precisely what we have been witnessing. That's why the past five months overall have been pretty bearish. We're seeing more outflows than inflows. When the inflows pick back up, I would assume it will reflect in the price action as it always has since the inception of the ETFs back in January of 2020 fo. So to better gauge the risk appetite for the traders, analysts look to stable coin demand. Over in China, when the investors rush to the exit crypto market, this indicator usually drops below parity. Under neutral conditions, stable coins should trade at 0.5 to 1% premium relative to the US dollar UN exchange rate. This premium compensates for the high cost of traditional FX conversion, remittance fees and regulatory friction caused by China's capital controls. The current 0.2 discount suggest moderate outflow, though this is an improvement from the 1.4 discount. Same on Monday. Also we will dive a little deeper into the ETFs next. We'll save that for the next story here. Next up Yo Bitcoin ETF shed 166 million as the Bitcoin heads for the worst start in years, you can't short your dorks selling pressure the US listed spot Bitcoin taps continued on thirsty throwback Thursday. Analysts noted Bitcoin on track for one of the worst yearly starts. Spot Bitcoin ATF saw 168 million of outflows on Thursday, bringing the weekly losses to 400 million. The redemptions move the funds closer to a positive five week outflow streak with yearto date losses totaling 2.7 billion. Trading activity continued to shrink, falling 21% over the week and reaching the lowest level since late December signaling weakening for investor activity despite 54 billion of the net inflows. Door Tab noted 2026 is shaping up to be one of the very worst year starts in Bitcoin history with bitcoin prices down 22% year to date and I think collectively now we must be between 50 and 60 from the top to the bottom. Black Rock's Ibid accounted for the bulk of the outflows this week totaling 368 million. Naturally BlackRock being the largest. Other US listed ETFs saw little or no activity this week aside from 50 million of outflows from Fidelity. Some major financial institutions reported reducing IBIT exposure earlier this week with Brevin Howard cutting its holdings in the fund by as much as 85% in the fourth quarter of 2025. So yeah, the ongoing outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs coincide with the weakening investor sentiment as multiple sources point to unusually low bitcoin price levels compared to the previous cycles drops. Analytics highlighted the bitcoin price in the context of the having and events that we know occurs every four years. Next one will be around April of 2028, reducing the block reward and is typically followed by price surges in the years that follow. If we're in a traditional four year cyclical cycle as we're accustomed to, that means we won't reach a new all time high until the year of the next having, which would be in Approximately April of 2028. Just FYI now almost two years later Bitcoin trades at 66Gs. It's ironic because the all time high in 2021 five years ago was 69,000. So we're below that. So this is like going in a time machine. You know back in the past five years to stack the sats look at it as a great buying opportunity. Personally quoting them here. This has never happened before. In previous cycles Bitcoin was already three to ten times above the having levels by now and they make a great point. And check on chain data shows Bitcoin is off to the worst yearly start on record 50 days into the year, surpassing the previous down years including 2018. It was all a drain. You know like Epstein with the skein. Interesting story here. I'm sure you heard it when it occurred. Here's the follow up update. South Korean authorities under fire over a 43 billion dollar bit thumb bitcoin ever. That's a significant error. 43 billion dollars literally. They credited 620,000 bitcoin to random people and apparently they got most of all of it back. But now if that's not a up, I don't know what is. Let's get to the bottom of it. South Korean lawmakers are stepping up the pressure on financial regulators after the exchange mistakenly credited customers with bitcoin it did not hold, an error that briefly sparked a rush to sell the renewed questions about overnight, the country's fastest growing digital asset market. Lawmakers said they failed to detect critical flaws in Bit Thumb's internal system despite at least three inspections since 2022, according to the Korea Times. Representative Kang Min Guk of the main opposition People Power Party said the incident was more than a technical mishap, claiming structural weakness in the crypto market including gaps in regulation and oversight. Bit Thumb mistakenly credited 2000 Bitcoin per user. Imagine waking up checking your balance on the exchange and you see 2000 freaking bitcoins sitting there. What would be your move? Do you contact support or do you try to withdraw that to a cold storage wallet? Immediately let me know. But anyways, that was 2000 Korean $1.40 during the promotional event. This was February 6th, distributing a total of 620000 Bitcoin that the exchange did not actually hold. That's what makes it even more scary. They didn't even hold it. Then how did they distribute it? Interesting lawmakers criticisms of the FSC intensified as regulator delayed inspection A bit thumb also makes you wonder was it an inside job? Like how can this happen? The authority opened the investigation February 10, 10 days ago, with the officials emphasizing they would take stern legal actions against acts that harm the market order. The probe initially expected to conclude on the 13th and has been extended with officials aiming to complete it by the end of this month, citing a need for additional review. Multiple local publications reported their inspection of Bit Thumb reportedly covers not only the recent 620,000 bitcoin error, but two similar incidents in the past. There were two previous cases in which the coins were mistakenly paid out and later recovered, but the amounts were minimal according to the Bit Thumb CEO. I guess this is a photo of them right here from left the FSE Vice chairman which is equivalent to like I guess their sec. Then it shows you the FSC Governor Lee and Bit Thumb CEO all the way on the right. In the latest incident, Ben Thumb said it managed to recover the majority of the assets with only 125 bitcoin out of the non existent 620, 000 unrecovered. So they only really lost 9 million which to an exchange is practically like 9 cents to us. The Bit Thumb incident also lands as authorities face renewed embarrassment over custody and security of SE's digital assets. In 202122 Bitcoin was one and a half million at these prices. But that disappeared from a coal wallet at the Souls police station. So you got like police officers allegedly making bitcoin go missing. Not surprised. A separate August 2025 case saw 320 Bitcoin vanish from the Guangju District Prosecutor's office reportedly due to a leaked password. Authorities only reported yesterday that the full amount had been recovered after the hacker returned the funds, raising eyebrows as the disclosure comes amid the ongoing FSS investigation into the Bit thumb. Lawmakers and industry observers say the incidents underscore the persistent weaknesses and authorities oversight and custody of digital assets. So still not really clear how they were able to send 620,000 bitcoin to customers if they don't even have that to begin with. So I'm wondering, is it, was it their custodians Bitcoin? It didn't clarify that. Or was it just ones and zeros on a screen? And bitcoin never existed to begin with because it's paper. Bitcoin moving around. That's my question for the exchange and maybe we'll get some answers. I don't know. And I guess we'll continue knocking this out. Yo. Next up, quantum fears aren't behind the Bitcoin 46 drop, says developer. You know, there's some analysts out there saying the biggest, you know, bare drop, especially this year is due to these quantum concerns. This guy says that's not true. Let's get to the bottom of it. Bitcoin's recent selloff isn't due to the quantum computing fears because if that were the case, ether would be soaring, according to bitcoin developer Matt Caro. He says I strongly disagree with the characterization the bitcoin's current prices as materially because of some kind of quantum risk. When he was interviewed by Laura Shin, the infamous Laura that sailor made famous. It's going up forever, Laura, forever. If that were true, then Ethereum would be substantially on Bitcoin. Ether is down 58% since the major market crash early in October, trading less than 2,000. So his comments come as Several bitcoiners have argued that the fears of the quantum computing affecting the blockchain are partly why bitcoin has dropped now roughly 50% from the October all time high126 which was achieved on October 6th. Ethereum zones in on the Quantum readiness Some bitcoin users have accused the blockchain developers of not moving quickly enough to make the network quantum resistant. While the Ethereum foundation has said it's taking measures to be ready, it's in its protocol update on Wednesday, the Ethereum foundation outlined the long term post quantum readiness as part of the broader security initiative. Carallo said that although quantum computing poses long term risk to bitcoin, market makers don't see it as a pressing short term threat, arguing that the bitcoin community is just looking for a scapegoat and I tend to believe that I don't know anyone that said, I sold all my bitcoin because the quantum computing not one single soul. Now there are a lot of bitcoiners who just want to blame something, blame something for the lackluster performance of course. Now he also said that a more likely reason for the bitcoin price decline is that now we're competing for capital in a way it has never happened has before amongst other technologies such as AI. AI is a super capital intensive, adding that it has a massive new investment class that is substantially competing for capital. There's a lot of interest and value accrual that will happen because of the AI and traditional equities. Not all bitcoiners agree with this guy. Capriole investment Guy founder Charles Edwards said that the risk should be priced into bitcoin until it becomes quantum resistant. Today kind of have to start to discount the value of the bitcoin based on that risk until it's solved. Meanwhile, Kevin O. Leary, I call Mr. Not so wonderful, said that using quantum computing to crack Bitcoin may not be the most efficient use of the resources and there is more upside in using tech for areas such as medical research and In May, Black Rock updated the registration statement for its iShares Bitcoin ETF to warn investors of the potential risks of the integrity of the bitcoin network posed by quantum computing. That's an interesting look from Black Rock. And guess what? Black Rock's been having a lot of outflows, which has been triggering a lot of this price depreciation. Maybe that's all by design. Black Rock, after all, is the financial arm of the Illuminati. Just saying. Don't trust Fink. Don't trust any billionaire CEO, you know, don't trust any billionaire CEO, and Fink is one of many. Also, Jamie Damon is another CEO of a bank I don't trust who's a billionaire. And the list goes on and on. But you get my drift. I need a Bitcoin for my Cornholio. Exactly. You got to get the biddy. Next up, here's the latest report regarding the Bitcoin Lightning Network exceeding a billion in monthly volume Monthly transaction volume of Bitcoin via the Lightning Network, as you know, is the second layer for Bitcoin enables payment use cases surpassed a billion dollar milestone. This was in November of 2025, according to the report from River. Transaction volume on the Lightning Network hit an estimated 1.1 billion in November across 5.2 million transactions, according to the report shared by Sam Wooders Rivers Director of Marketing. The report says Lightning adoption happened despite the price declining all of November and generally not doing much in 2025. The adoption was largely driven by the exchanges as well as the growing number of businesses accepting Bitcoin payments. And here you can see the estimated monthly Lightning Network transaction volume and transaction count brought to you by River. On the left, estimated monthly lightning volume and on the right, estimated monthly Lightning transactions. Now the total transaction count in 2025 is lower compared to 2023, when monthly Lightning transactions peaked at 6.6 million in August of that year, with RIVER attributed to experiments with micropayments and gaming and messaging apps. The report forecasts a similar surge in lightning transactions as individuals and businesses experiment with AI payments. The Bitcoin Lightning Network helps scale the Bitcoin network and let me know if you've ever used Lightning before. Enabling Bitcoin payments between parties that settle in seconds instead of minutes, encouraging Bitcoin's use as a medium of exchange instead of just a risk asset or store value. Now the Lightning Network reduces transaction cost and settlement times by opening up a payment channel between two or more parties to handle the transaction off chain, posting only the net balance of the channel to the Bitcoin ledger once it's closed. Typically bitcoin blocks take around 10 minutes on average to be added to the ledger, severely limiting the bitcoin payments, particularly for the smaller purchases at physical businesses. So for example, if you use the traditional blockchain to purchase something, it can take 10 minutes to finalize because every block is roughly 10 minutes and you may be in a rush. I need a cup of coffee. I got two minutes. And so you may use an alternative such as a layer two such as lightning which is very popularized in El Salvador where they use bitcoin for everyday transactions in certain parts of the country like El Zante Bitcoin beach. Now In December of 2025, the Lightning Network capacity, which is the total number of coins locked on the network for liquidity reached 5,600 bitcoin as more companies and institutions began using it. And here's a overview of the lightning network industry in 2026. Shows you all the wallets and exchanges shows you the use cases and you can see we do got mass adoption here as far as the ecosystem is concerned, you know, so that's kind of cool. You can see the infrastructure, the empowerment. And this was brought to you by river as well. Now Secure Digital Markets, an institutional trading lending company. Send crypto exchange Kraken 1,000,000 in Lightning transactions in February. The the transaction showed that large seven figure amounts can be transferred between institutional parties using the Bitcoin layer 2 scaling network. That's pretty cool cuz prior my understanding was lightning is not suitable for large payments but more so for the micro transactions, everyday purchases and things of that nature. So to be moving a million dollars on a lightning channel is kind of cool. I remember a long, long time ago I would experiment on lightning and anytime I try to move a large amount it was, it would never work. I would get an error. So maybe that has cleaned up and changed since that time. I don't know. All right fam. Now for our feature story of the day. Entrepreneurs calling for bitcoin to reach 500,000 by 2029. And he calls it his conservative call. That's right, this legendary investor, Rick Edelman, he says I believe Bitcoin can reach 500,000 by 2030. In a recent interview with Altcoin Daily. But don't take my word for it, here's the video.
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Yeah, I believe that Bitcoin can reach $500,000 by the, by the end of the decade. And there are other predictions that are even more bold than mine. Some are predicting a million dollars. I'm rather conservative at 500,000, many are predicting a million. Others are predicting as much as 2 to 5 million in pricing. The problem I have with a lot of the predictions is that they are opaque. They haven't explained why they believe what they're saying. So I'll be transparent and tell you how I get to 500,000 by 2030. As a caveat, I want to remind everybody that this is not a straight line. We're not going to go from 70,000 to 500. It's going to be very bumpy along the way, as the past couple of months have demonstrated. Nevertheless, I am optimistic we'll get to 500,000. And here's why. It's simple arithmetic. The average investor in the world does not yet own Bitcoin. I believe that as bitcoin continues to mature, as the crypto marketplace continues to expand, both through government holdings, through sovereign wealth funds and institutional holdings, endowments, pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, banks, brokerages, et cetera, we will continue to see greater adoption, greater inflows into this asset class. If you look at the total value of all the world's assets, the total value of stocks on a global basis, all the bonds in the world, all the real estate in the world, real estate is three times bigger than the stock market. If you look at the value of gold, look at the value of all the cash in the world. There's $56 trillion of cash in all the different currencies all around the world. You add it all up and it's about 750 or about $750 trillion in total value of all of this stuff. If you take the attitude, Austin, that everybody who owns a diversified portfolio ends up owning just 1% of their portfolio in Bitcoin, that's inflows of seven and a half trillion dollars. That plus the current value of Bitcoin translates to about $500,000 per coin. It's really that simple. And what we're beginning to discover are two things. Number one, more and more people are allocating, proving my point. And number two, when they do allocate, they're allocating more than 1%. They're typically allocating closer to 5% of assets. That's how Michael Saylor gets to $5 million value for Bitcoin, whereas I'm at 500,000. He's arguing that people are going to allocate on average a lot more than I'm suggesting, at a mere 1%. So his attitude of 5 million is not terribly far fetched on that basis. So I think that is perfectly reasonable to assume that we're going to see substantial growth as we have more and more people allocating to this asset.
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Powerful, he's ultimately saying. Which is 1% allocation 500,000. Very reasonable. And if they were to allocate more like Sailor suggests, At only 5%, we can up that number significantly, or 10%. We could talk about 5 million per coin. Easy peasy. Let's dive a little deeper into the story, which was published around this particular prediction. We'll dive deep here. So yeah, according to some investors, a deep bargaining is forming. Andrew Parish, serial entrepreneur and bitcoin proponent, argues that mood matters when retail traders turn gloomy. The big buyers can step in and lift the markets fast. He put a bull target on the table. 500 GS within a few years if the flows and sentiment flip. And I already shared with you his thoughts and theory on that. Now the bear case that cuts deep. I just gave you the bull. Let me give you the polar opposite super bear from Bloomberg's Mike mlone, the only guy I know calling for a drop to 10,000 upper coin right now. But also I got to point out, I watched one of his recent interviews in which there was a panel including Lawrence Leopard and this mlone guy is really stupid. He claims Bitcoin has an unlimited supply, so he clearly doesn't even understand Bitcoin, which makes me, you know, take anything he says, obviously with a grain of salt. But he points to a stronger stock market, lower market swing, fading political tailwind tied to Trump as reasons capital may stay away from risky bets. Markets can be moved by big shifts and where money chooses to sit. And moments like this can put a damper on the optimism quickly. And you know what I'll do? I'll just share it to you direct from the horse's mouth. This is mlone's post and again, I don't agree with what he is saying, but I want to paint the picture so you can get the full polarity and decide for yourself. But this was posted February 15th 5 days ago he put collapsing Bitcoin and and Cryptos may guide the next recession Healthy correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts following collapsing crypto. The buy the dip mantra since 2008 may be over. Here's why. US stock market cap to GDP reached the highest in about a century. The S&P 500 is the lowest in roughly eight years. The crypto bubble is imploding, but Pam Bondi says The Dow is 50 thou right now. Who cares about the kids that's what she says. The crypto bubble is imploding. Trump euphoria peaks gaining contagion gold and silver grabbing the alpha at a velocity Last match about a half a century ago spiking volatility set to trickle up to stocks, he says My graphic Highlights Bitcoin divided by 10 at about the same level as the s and P Feb 13 with both hovering below 7,000. It seems unlikely that volatile beta dependent bitcoin can stay above this threshold. If beta doesn't initial normal reversion is towards 5600spx which is 56,000 Bitcoin then what part of my base case for the biddy to revert towards 10,000 as a US stock market peak 7,000s and P 550,000 Dow. Well like I said, Pam Bondi says The Dow is 50 thou right now and who cares about the victims from the up scene list or files I should say but yeah, bitcoin may need s p500 save up. I highly disagree with this guy and as I mentioned earlier, he doesn't really even understand bitcoin and in my opinion he's spreading propaganda by design for the mainstream. So I'm not surprised. There's always a guy like that in every cycle. Bitcoin's going to zero. I know you've heard that one before by a gentleman by the name of Dan Pena. You know that old gentleman. I'm sure you've heard it. But anyways, here we are. Volatility is a mofo. Capitalize on it, check it. We're right back looking to recapture 68. Up down, up down left right, left right B A B A select start. But anyways welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream.
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The ego says look at me. Family says we're in us together and that's the difference it wasn't charts that kept us here Wasn't candles, wasn't fear Was late night Staring at the red still stacking sass inside our head yeah when the noise got louder Spitting fiction they called us delusional not knowing our loyalty was vicious we just gripped tight and held the line Committed to an orange mission Loyalty forged in the dip not the shine it ain't about look at me it's about we still believe when the world screams let it go we said no oh. But I won't sell that's a divine no it's not tech, greed or trends It's a circle real friends or as hard as lighting up the wire on James was protecting in the night night Owls keeping score is the wolves how steady do the funeral that was alive IGY6 and you got mine on this mission we will fight I got you, you got me Together for each other for humanity we're in this together through the stormy weather through the dips and the pressure we don't fold, never yeah we got each other's backs Our loyalty working with a 21 million fact no more than a tick more than getting richer it's loyalty under fire Conviction in our chest we're in this together Inside jokes and mission code Every real hiding knows the road we don't bell when it gets dark we don't trade away Our heart system shut us down Fill the air with doubt it laugh while we build the bigger house out Hodle house Stack my leaf like blocks on a stable base Orange pill family we own survival space. It ain't, it ain't about look at me it's about we still believe when the world scream let it go we said no we said no we're in this together Bitcoin family forever from the bottom to the treasure Loyal under pressure it's not ego, not a flex it's fire in our chest Orange hearts in the ledger we're in this together we're in this together. We're in this together
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and don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hle.