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2259: Saylor: Bitcoin Is Going to $1M — "It's Zero or a Million"
00:28:41
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states.
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Happy Sat Stacking Saturday welcome everyone to the number one Bitcoin pod. Bitcoin pumping back in the green. We're at 68:5 at a time of the live up 1000 on on the day. In today's show I'll be sharing the latest TA. We'll also discuss spot Bitcoin ETS record five weeks of net withdrawals totaling $3.8 billion. Also the Bitcoin mining difficulty rebounds 15% as US miners recover from the winter outages. Also Bitcoin bull catalyst could be AI stocks turning silly big according to Lynn Alden. We also discussed Trump announces 10% global tariff following the SCOTUS ruling. Also Sailor makes a bold prediction. He calls it zero or a million for the bitcoin price. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here SAT stacking Saturday. Today is Pod Episode2259. I'm your host JV alongside my co host Fed Chair Nipinator who's in recovery mode right now. Bitcoin's in recovery mode as well. We're trading at around 685 at a time of the live up now over 1100 on the day. It's nice to see a green candle on the day considering most the week has been red for the past several weeks to say the least. And really for the past five months. Maybe going on six months. We'll see if March finally turns bullish. You know we're long overdue but we shall soon see kicking it off with our market watch. You can see bulk of the market in the green. Bitcoin up 1 1/2% on the day, Ether still under 2000 only up 1% on the day, XRP up 2 1/2 percent, Soul 2 1/2 percent, Tron barely in the red, Cardano barely in the Green and BNB up 3% on the day checking out coinmarketcap.com current crypto market cap up 1% only trading at 2.34 trillion. Bitcoin market cap 1.368 trillion. It's up about 1% on the day as well. Maybe 1.6% more precise. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. Injective leading the pack up 15% followed by layer 0 up 11% and ETH classic up 10%. And as we scroll down lots of modest gains. A lot of the market is actually in the green and maybe only 15% of the market correcting and in the red as far as the top one hundo is concerned. Checking out Crypto Greed and Fear index we bottomed out at a 5 which is the new bottom for the cycle last week. Today we rose a little but still pretty low. It's Extreme Fear rated an 8. Yesterday was a 7. Last month at 20. All of which is in extreme fear. Checking out the time chain calendar today we on block height 937678 and you can exchange one fiat monop dollar for 1461 SATS. So you know what to do. Pick up the sats, put down the gats, pick up some bitcoin caps from a man, sergio over@bitcoin caps.net all right fam, what we'll do next is look at some of the live charts, see what's crack lacking in the market. As you can see on your screen, this is the one hour we'll work our way back. Finally a little bullish momentum. This is much needed. We got to get back above 70Gs. We're only 1500 away at the time of the live. You also notice 1, 2, 3, 4, 4 consecutive green candles on the hourly. We're so back. That should equate to one big green candle on the four hour. Let's see. Yep, you got a decent green candle formed here, but also the past two four hour candles are green. So we've been pumping for Approximately the past 12 hours. Hopefully we can continue checking out the daily. You also notice a green candle on the day. Also yesterday Friday was a green candle and Thursday we actually did close in a green. Prior to that we had like five or six consecutive red candles as outlined in the chart. Checking out the weekly we do get the weekly candle close tomorrow and we've traded sideways mostly all week. So you'll notice a itty bitty almost hard to see because it's so minuscule red candle which could flip if we can pump another 1500 dollars most likely we'll flip it in the green so we'll see what happens. The day is young. We got a few hours before the candle close, but what you will Notice a pattern. 1, 2, 3, 4. This could be the fifth consecutive red candle week if we don't flip. And also checking out the monthly get a broad perspective. You're going to notice the bearishness from the October candle. It's continued cascading down November, December, January, February and most likely it's going to close in the red this month unless we get a massive relief rally this final week of the month of February, which I'm not anticipating. But again, anything could happen. There ain't no telling with constipated miss yelling finance. Next up we'll do a little more TA here. Bitcoin 150 price calls are drying up, which is healthy according to sentiment. I want to speak to Samson Calls for the bitcoin to hit 150 to 200,000. Even 50,000. A hundred thousand. All drying up, they point out in their new report. This reduction in FOMO and Lambo memes is actually a healthy market indicator. It shows that the retail optimism's a fading. And while prominent bitcoin advocates such as Arthur Hayes, Just Blaze and Tom Lee were openly calling for Bitcoin to reach 250 during 2025, the assets price ended up reaching, as you know, the current firmament October 6th we hit 126. 3. That's the current all time high top before entering the downtrend spiral all the way down to 59. 9. Crazy enough and you can see it right here yo. Bitcoin is down now 24% over the past month. The downtrend continued into the new year. Bitcoin dropped just below 60,000 February 6, which is the new cycle low but has since edged up and we're currently, you know, above 68 at the time of the live sentiment said that the santiment around bitcoin measured by the ratio of the bullish to bearish social media comments, has recovered from extreme bearishness to neutral territory, which makes it harder for the market participants to make trading decisions. They say better to avoid trading in these scenarios or at least discount the significance of sentiment and metrics in your analysis. Now the Crypto Green and Fear index I pointed out we just bottomed out at a new low we ain't seen since really 2022 when we had the winter with FTX collapse and Teraluna and all that contagion. But Sant said overall activity of the Bitcoin network is flashing warning signs. You've been warned. Transactional volume, active addresses and network growth all steadily declining. They say these utility indicators suggest the network is being used less frequently. While not immediately bearish. This dormancy implies traders are sitting on their hands, santimen said, arguing the market expansion would show growing user participation. Which leads me to my favorite mantra, I want to talk to Samson. With that being shared, there's the latest what's happening in the market. Next up, we're going to discuss the ETF inflows and outflows spot Bitcoin E test record 5 weeks at a net withdrawals almost 4 billion worth which is a great reflection of the price action right now which has been trading sideways and corrective. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. Record sales have not exactly been stellar.
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Based on the incredible true story I'm Tim. I'm Mark's Warm up. It's my first tour now I just want to write something that helps people. You will never understand what I'm going through.
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only in theaters rated PG minus our itty bitty pump here today, US ETFs have posted five consecutive weeks of net outflows with investors pulling in roughly 3.8 billion from the products over the period. During the last week the funds recorded 316 million of net outflows according to Soo Value. The biggest weekly withdrawal during the five week streak occurred in the week ending January 30th when the Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded 1.49 billion of net outflows. The net weekly outflows come as some sessions posted inflows. On Friday, Bitcoin ETF saw 88 million of inflows. Very modest, right? But they were outweighed by larger redemption days earlier in the week. Notably withdrawals including more than 410 million February 12th along with additional negative sessions from February 17th through the 19th leaving the weekly total firm negative. Now as of Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated 54 billion in net inflows since launch, which was back January 11, 2024. Total net assets stood near 85 billion, representing 6.3% of the Bitcoin overall market cap. Now, recent withdrawals from the spot Bitcoin ETFs appear tied to institutional positioning rather than a loss of long term interest in the asset, according to Vincent Liu, chief investment officer over at Kronos. He said the outflows reflect portfolio de risking as geopolitical tension and broader macro uncertainty continue on the rise. He added the flows may remain unstable in the near term, escalating trade disputes and tariff developments. And speaking of these tariff developments, I'll give the update with Trump regarding the tariffs later a couple stories from now, so stay tuned. They also say market inflows will be dependent on the macro events like incoming Thursday is initial jobless claims as weaker data could retrieve expectations for future rate cuts help support the sentiment. Currently and as you know, Crypto Greed and Fear index is at a low, but spot ether ETFs are also witnessing outflows. That's why right now Ethereum is struggling to maintain the 2000 critical price point we're under right now. It's kind of been stuck for the past few months under 2000, which is crazy. Some analysts calling for a correction of 1,013. The same analysts are calling for Bitcoin to continue its correction to a lower low, breaking down past 60,000. But you guys let me know your thoughts, okay? Bitcoin minor difficulty rebounds 15% as US miners trying to strike out Cord and it's probably a might just playing recover from the winter outages. I got to hit you with a little K dot here and there of course keep you on your toes, especially Epstein's clients. But anyways, Bitcoin's mining difficulty jumped 15% to 144 trillion February 20th according to the coin wars. Reversing 11 drop always a divine omen. You see that 11 just saying earlier in the month marking the sharpest decline since China's 2021 mine and ban. That's right. The earlier decline followed a sharp drop at a hash rate after severe winter storm swept across the US which many are saying is artificial winter wars. Let me know your thoughts on the weather wars there, disrupting the power grids and forcing miners offline. In late January, Foundry usa the largest mining pool by hash, briefly saw the computing power fall to about 198exahashes per second from nearly 400. So that's about a cut in half right there. Hash rate measures the total computing power. And right here looking at the bitcoin difficulty chart, you can see it dropped and then it gained some right here. While mining Difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, which is roughly every two weeks. Typically a block is estimated to be 10 minutes. It could, you know, be up or down and then always readjust over time to keep the block production near 10 minute target. And one of my favorite things I share with you as far as metrics every day is that time chain calendar. It'll show you the last block on average. Etc as US Miners restored the operations after the storm hash rate rebounded, prompting the latest upward difficulty adjustment. While the higher difficulty strengthens the bitcoin network security, it also raises the computational effort required to earn the blocked rewards, tightening margins for miners already facing the cost pressures. And although January's winter storm forced some US Bitcoin miners offline, especially those nonprofit right maybe the electricity exceeded the price of you know, what they were receiving didn't necessarily erase the revenue. Many participate in demand response programs or horrid flexible power contracts, allowing them to pause the mining and sell electricity back to the grid when the price spiked. And in January, our power infrastructure highlighted the flexibility of our operating model, according to the CE CEO of bitcoin miner LM Funding America. And according to the report, in February the company curtailed operations during the winter storm fern and redirected concentrated power to the grid, generating more than a quarter of its typical quarterly energy and curtailment revenue over a single weekend. And also want to point out since China's 2021 mining crackdown, the US has become the world's largest bitcoin mining hub, hosting major operations to crypto friendly states such as Texas and Georgia. And according to data from the Cambridge center of Alternative Finance, the U S now accounts for over 1/3 of the global Bitcoin hash rate. So 1/3 of Bitcoin is being mined in the USA. Baby baby. Next Story Bitcoin bull catalyst could be the AI stocks turning silly big, according to Lynn Alden. Here's the latest. Bitcoin's next major leg up could hinge on the AI stocks becoming excessively overvalued in the eyes of investors, according to macro economist Lynn Alden, who was recently on the coin shares pod with the beautiful Natalie Bernell. Here's what she says. It could be that the AI stocks eventually just peak. They get so silly big that they can't get realistically much higher. And my question is, do you think the AI stocks have already peaked? Silly. Or do you think they'll get a lot higher before peaking? Silly. Let me know. When an asset's price rises to a level where further gains are harder to justify, capital often moves into other opportunities with more upside potential, she shared. So with Bitcoin down now roughly 50 from the October all time high, Alden suggests it could be beneficiary of that rotation. For example, Nvidia may be the most important Stock of the U.S. says the exec. Some analysts are questioning whether the largest AI stock will keep up their momentum in 2026. Alabion Financial Group investment officer Jason Noir recently shared on Fox that Nvidia that makes, you know, obviously chips for AI, the largest company on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange, I think they're over 4 trillion market cap. I think it's the first company to grow that fast as well to have another great quarter. But asked whether it would be good enough, we all know they are the most concentrated obvious winner in the AI buildout. Can that growth continue in a way that supports the stock moving even higher? I guess that's the question. Nvidia stock price right now is up 35 over the past year according to Google Finance and where said that it's probably the most important company and most important stock in America in the market. That's why I guess it's the number one by what is it called? Market cap. The rise of investor interest in AI means the Bitcoin is now competing for capital in a way it has never before. However, Alden also shared that Bitcoin wouldn't need a significant wave of capital to move higher. She says it only takes a marginal amount of new demand to come in, adding that the long term Hudders essentially put the floor in as the short term traders rotate out. Quoting her here, the coins rotate from fast money hands to strong held ones. They are really not going to want to part with it unless it goes up like 5x or more. So Alden also says she doesn't expect a quick near term surge for the price. She says Bitcoin rarely makes V shaped bottoms outside novid stimulus type events, adding that it's normally it hits a low level then go sideways for quite a while, which is probably what we're experiencing right now. I would assume. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliate not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy. I think we're in more of a grind, she said, adding that it may move 10,000 lower or even 20,000 lower and it is still in that grinding part. Grinding all my life. Sacrifice Hustle paid a price Next Story of the day Trump announces 10 global tariff following the SCOTUS ruling that's right, Trump announced 10 global tariff just this Friday following the Supreme Court's ruling strike, striking down his authority to levy the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Trump was critical of the Supreme Court decision, calling the decision ridiculous at Friday's press conference. Let me know if you saw that and said he will levy the tariffs under different legal methods, including the Trade Expansion act of 1962 and the Trade act of 1974. Quoting the Trumpster alongside my least favorite person right now, Nick yeah, Howard Ludnick Effective immediately, all national security tariffs under section 232, section 301 terrorists remain fully in place and in full force and effect. Today I'll sign an order to impose a 10 global tariff under section 122 over and above our normal tariffs already being charged. What are your thoughts on that? Yeah, let me know. Trump's tariffs have repeatedly caused severe downturns and markets considered high risk, especially crypto. As the threat of tariffs fuel uncertainty, shaking investor confidence, the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's authority to levy the tariffs under emergency powers. Here's the Supreme Court ruling though. Trump levied a 25% tariff on most goods coming from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on goods coming from China, framing bolt terrorists as a response to national security threats. An influx of drugs from foreign countries create a public health crisis, according to Trump, while trade deficits with China threatened the industry industrial manufacturing base of the US Is what he alleged. He also alleged there was no Epstein files at one point and no list. So yeah, I'm kind of skeptical at this point of anything anyone in government says, but that's just me. Supreme Court rejected both premises as national security threats under the IEEPA and said the Executive Branch does not have the authority to levy the tariffs under the during pace time in the IEEPA's half century of existence, no president has invoked the statute to impose any tariffs, let alone tariffs of this magnitude. Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution specifies Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises. The Framers recognize the unique importance of this taxing power according to the Supreme Court ruling. Now, I'll be 100 with you. I haven't been a fan of the tariffs. I'm not a fan of the tariffs and I don't think they're beneficial in any way to our financial landscape. He alleges it's, you know, due to drugs or this or that. I don't buy into any of that. I just think it's about making incredible amounts of money for him and his team. And now we know his team is Epstein's clients. Lutnick and the boys. Now for our feature story of the day. Michael Saylor makes the bold one million dollar Bitcoin call reminding us it's either going to zero or a million per coin. Let me know which you think will actually occur. 1 million per Bitcoin or 0 like Dan Pena claimed years back.
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It's going does a round. You want to know who's behind it? If you do, who is behind it? You would have saw yesterday.
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So who's behind it? Dan Putin. Okay. Sailor's binary bet. According to Sailor, bitcon has only two plausible final outcomes, worthless or worth a million per coin. And that's not a quick trading idea. It's a long running view about scarcity and demand. That's right. Sailor argues fixed supply paired with growing institutional buying and the broader custody tools make the future of massive price gains not only possible, but inevitable. My point to the more banks, more spot ETFs, bigger corporate allocations, proof of the demand has matured. And he's right. Since the launch of the spot ETFs January 11th of 2024, we've had tremendous institutional demand from the likes of the Black Rocks, the Fidelities, the Wall Streets, etc. Here's an actual tweet from the Gigachad. This was posted 8:46am as you see in the time stamp February 20th, which was yesterday, 1.8 million views. Here's what he wrote. If it is not going to zero, it's going to a million Bitcoin the doing. Let me know if you agree with the Gigachad reports. Note that not everyone agrees. McGlone of Bloomberg sketched a darker path. Here's the retard that's suggesting we go down to 10,000. He's also spreading FUD claiming Bitcoin has an unlimited supply. He can't be that hard hearted. It's almost like he's the next Jim Cramer apparently. But you let me know your thoughts. I don't know if you saw that interview. We've been talking about it here on the stream and it just baffles me listening to that guy even talk. But anyways, that view is rooted in history. Markets can fall a long way before confidence returns. Short term moves can be savage, longer swings can be slower to recover. Both views are true on their own terms because they answer different questions about the time and the risks. Well, let's discuss the balance sheet and the funding based on the reports. You can't short your dork and don't eat the pork the firm Back and Sailors posture holds very large stake, naturally their largest corporate holder in the world currently 717,131 of the bitties they acquired at an average cost of 76,000 per coin. That position clearly underwater. However, it's unrealized. So slow your slow your roll. Still, financing choices matter. Strategy relies on equity, convertible notes and prefer shares to meet the cash needs. And we all know the cash is trash, but it pays the bills arcam intel has mapped out. Preferred dividends are optional. Redemptions are not automatic, which lowers the chance of forced sales right away. That setup buys time, though it does not erase exposure if the price stays low for the long stretch. So yeah, Sailor underwater, but will he sell his bitties? Let's get to this tweet from arcam and let's see if there's any cool responses. This was timestamp yesterday as well. 6:07am 2-20-61, 000 views Arcam intel wrote Sailors underwater, but will he sell his bitties? Sailor is over 10% underwater. Oh no from his average purchase price. But what would actually force him to sell bitcoin? Here's the explainer of how, when and why strategy might be forced to sell the BTC. Oh cool. Let's entertain this. Strategy has two types of obligations that they raise from cash from 2.5 billion which to service these obligations and the prefer stock. Those are subject to dividend payments, legally optional and redemptions. Strategy must pay the coupons, must pay back, convert the notes into stock at maturity date. Prefer stock includes strk, strf, strd, STRC and str. Only str, STRK is convertible into common stock and their dividend payments are generally 8 to 10%. However, these are legally optional. If strategy runs out of the money they are not obligated to sell bitcoin to pay them. Also recall more recently he created a war chest of fiat. I think it was two or three billion dollars he raised so he can be able to continue to pay these dividends if were to hit the fan as Eminem Said what you going to do when hits the fan? Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive, you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states. You're gonna run a fight like a man. Will you be as hard as you say you are? Are you gonna go run and get your bodyguards? Let me know. Convertible notes. These are legally enforceable. Must be either paid back or converted at maturity. Strategy owns 8 billion of the debt between its convertible notes and currently holds two and a half billion in cash. Well, there you go. I was just speculating. Two to three billion. It's dead in the middle. Two and a half billion to be exact. However, the D mean Strategy will sell the bitcoin. Also, more recently, Sailor came out and said unless bitcoin tanked to like 8,000, they're not even contemplating selling. So also, number one, conversion. Every convertible note has a conversion price that is equivalent to the stock. If the price of Strategy stock is over the conversion price at the time of maturity, holders will choose to convert MSCR to the stock. This is what happened with the 2027 convertible notes and two, refinancing. If strategy stock is not likely to be above the price of conversion, Strategy can attempt to refinance its principal obligations by raising additional funds. So ultimately, Sailor has a lot of outs for you poker players out there. And number three, if all of this fails, Strategy may sell a portion of his bitcoin to finance its convertible note redemptions. The principal risk depends upon bitcoin price and the ability of Strategy to refinance. And one more thing here, notably, Sailor selling common stock to fund bitcoin purchases does not create a future cash obligation for Strategy. Therefore, Sailor's average price is somewhat irrelevant to the question of whether Sailor needs to sell bitcoin. Sailor can remain underwater for as long as he wants. He's the Sailor man. As long as he can service his obligations for Strategies convertible notes. And I'll leave you at that. What are your thoughts? Do you have faith in what Sailors doing for Strategy? Do you think Strategies stock price will return to where it was, you know, at its highs north of $400? I think right now it's like about 100. It's probably down 75% or something like that. And how many of you have Exposure to strategy. Strk strc. Any of these, you know, rappers do let me know. And what are your thoughts on bitcoin? Inevitably going to a million versus zero. Which camp are you in? Does anyone here genuinely believe bitcoin will go to zero? I'm just curious if there's any takers that agree with Dan Pena or Bloomberg. Bitcoin 10G's Maglone. Let me know. I'll read your comments out loud. Welcome everyone to the Q and A segment of the live stream.
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The ego says look at me Family says we're in us together and that's the difference it wasn't charts that kept us here Wasn't candles, wasn't fear it was late night Staring at the red still stacking sass inside our head yeah when the noise got louder Spitting fiction they called us delusional not knowing our loyalty was vicious we just gripped tight and held the line Committed to an orange mission Loyalty forged in the dip not the shine it ain't about look at me it's about we still believe when the world screams let it go we said no oh, oh. But I won't sell that's a divine no it's not tech, greed or trends It's a circle real friends or as hard as lighting up the wire on James was protecting in the night Night owls keeping score is the wolf how steady do the funeral that was alive IG Y6 and you got mine and on this mission we will fight I got you, you got me Together for each other for humanity we're in this together through the stormy weather through the dips and the pressure we don't fold never yeah we got each other's backs Our loyalty working with the 21 million fact no more than a tickle more than getting richer it's loyalty under fire conviction in our chest we're in this together Inside jokes and mission code Every real hide and know is the road we don't bell when it gets dark we don't trade away our system shut us down Filled the air with doubt it laugh while we built the bigger house out Stack my leaf life blocks on a stable base Orange pill family we own survival space it ain't, it ain't about look at me it's about we still believe when the world scream let it go we said no we said no we're in this together Bitcoin family forever from the bottom to the treasure Loyal under pressure loyal it's not eagle, not a flex it's fire in our chest Orange hearts in the ledger we're in this together we're in this together. We're in this together.
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And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hodl.
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