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2262: Bitcoin Sell-Off Called 'Purification' as $225K Target Emerges
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Welcome bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. Bitcoin sitting just above 64,000 at the time of the live. As the correction continues, we're going to be entertaining a new low of 44,000 according to some analysts. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market as we always do. Bitcoin ETF selloff is purification of the bull case according to this particular investor. Also Sailor says quantum threat to bitcoin is now currently more than 10 years away. We also discussed $40 billion crypto. Jane street sued over the Tera insider training. Yes, the same Jane street connected to Sam Bankman Freed and Caroline Ellison can't make this is up. Also solo bitcoin miner bags over 200,000 block reward using a rented hash rate when they only paid $75, which is almost like hitting the lottery. It's insane. We also discuss 2026 bull predictions are in ranging from 75,000 to 225,000 per coin this year in we'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is February 24, 2026. Bitcoin cracked it to 62. We had a little relief rally. Currently 64 and we're only 400 away from flipping it to the green. We'll see what happens. Maybe we'll flip green during today's live stream. Let's kick it off with our market watch as we do every day. Pulling up coin 360. Bulk of the market in the red unfortunately, but very modest. And like I said, we can flip at any moment. Anything's a possible of course. And checking out coinmark cap.com unfortunately this is horrendous crypto market cap. Just when you thought it can't go any lower down another 4% on the day. 2.18 trillion. This has to be the lowest we have seen in a long time. Also I saw the US stock market lost 800 billion yesterday since they captured or killed or sorry, unalived the Mexican cartel boss who they're comparing to like El Chapo and what's his name, the Medine guy, Pablo Escobar. And ironic enough, 13 years ago today I was in Medellin. I was at his gravestone. I actually have the proof of work. Ask me about it later. I'll share it with you. It popped up on my Facebook memories. I'm like oh yeah, I did the Pablo Escobar tour. That's right. But anyways, looking at the bitcoin market cap it is low all the way down to 1.285 trillion. This is mind boggling to me. Crypto greed and fear according to coin market cap is an 11. 11 is always a divine number, but that is obviously extreme fear. We did touch a five just the other day as well. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. We got Ethi up 11 decred up 8% and Pippin up 6%. Then a few modest gainers and then you know, most of the market correcting it in the red. As you can see, crypto greed and fear index according to the crypto greed and fear index is currently an 8 in extreme fear and as I said yesterday is the low. We ain't seen levels this low since 2022. Bear market with FTX. That's kind of crazy. Checking out. What else do we have? We got to do the the time chain calendar. Can't forget about that. Pulling up the time chain calendar, we're currently on block height 938,154. Before you know it will hit block height a million tik tok next block. And as of today, February 24th, you can exchange one monopoly dollar for 1556 SATs. So you know precisely what to do. You pick up the sats, put down the gats pickups of bitcoin caps from man Sergio over@bitcoin caps.net we'll get right into it, pull up some of the live charts and it's actually nice to look at today. It's not that bad considering. Yeah, we did go down to 62 which is not nice, but we got 1, 2, 3 consecutive green relief candles. We're currently at 642 and we just got a red candle being printed at this time. So bitcoin's still struggling in the same range. Many analysts calling for mid 50 correction. We'll see how it plays out, man. But definitely a lot of bearish sentiment in the market. There's no denying it. But let's check out some of the other time frames. This is the hourly, of course we always start there. Check out the four hour. You see a couple of green relief candles after touching down at 62. Checking out the daily. We're definitely in the red today, but barely. Again it can flip at any moment because we corrected and bounce right back, which was nice yesterday. Big red candle unfortunately and the day before was red candle. So again a lot of bearish momentum building up on the charts. Checking out the Weekly looks horrendous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Six red candles. And this, you know, new week just started and it's already more of a significant drawdown than the two previous weeks combined, man. So it's kind of wild checking out the monthly similar 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 red candles. Will things finally flip for the month of March? I hope so because the likelihood of February flipping now that we're already February 24th, there's only four more days left in a month. Very slim. Like Slim Shady ever ever, ever, you know. But there you go yo. And doing a little ta. A headline here reads Bitcoin Traders excess loss realization may push the bitcoin price below 44. Let me know if you agree disagree with that. Obviously I don't think any of us want to see that unless you're loading up on bitcoin, which some of you may be in that boat right now. Bitcoin capitulation may last for another six months. You got to keep that in mind. That can very well happen. Meaning the bearish momentum continues and we get a full year of red candles on the monthly chart. We've seen it before in in bare winters man. But anyways, on Monday the bitcoin realized Profit loss ratio 90 day moving average slipped below a 1. The drop indicated the traders are dumping their holdings at a loss which is often linked to panic, selling margin pressure and the broader risk off conditions. Historically, breaks below a 1 preceded at least six months of lost realization according to the onchain data brought to you by Glass Node. And a move back above one usually suggests the selling pressures finally easing. Traders often sell out a loss when they expect the downtrend to continue. Maybe they park their bitty into some stables and let the price correct and then get their position back and stack more sats. But it's very risky thing to do, you know. But they do do it. Prior bear markets loss taken typically accelerated midway through the cycle following by more downside of the B price. And during the 2022 bear market for instance, Bitcoin did decline 25% six months after its realized profit loss ratio did drop below a 1. And in 2018 it plunged over 50% five months under similar conditions as shown here in the chart. So the bitcoin price may continuous downtrend for another five months or more. If history repeats that will confirm a full transition into an excess loss realization regime. Now let's entertain the 4040 or sorry the 44,000 bottom. Bitcoin's rising loss realization may therefore drag the price to an extreme low valuation zone. These lows exist within the MVRV pricing band metric which maps where the bitcoin reaches extreme unrealized profit or loss zones. Historically, the lowest band, which is the blue line, has coincided with a bitty bare market bottoms as outlined right here. And as of February the extreme low was 43760. The potential downside target by August if the bitcoin price decline continued further. So if this were to play out, expect us to continue hitting lower lows and eventually bottoming out at around 44,000. The level also sits within the broader 4,050 bottom range, flagged by multiple analysts as a potential late 2026 target. But you guys let me know your thoughts and let's continue knocking out the news. Bitcoin ETF sell off is purification of the bull case according to the investors. That's right and a new post Mr. Jackson, sorry Ms. Jackson, who I am for real predicted more stable bitcoin price strength in the future. Despite the current institutional exodus, Bitcoin didn't fail as an asset, it succeeded as an ETF. And that's the problem. The US Bitcoin ETFs continue to see regular net outflows compounding already weak price action. Underscoring the bitcoin bearish trend Change the hit October 2025, Jackson noted that currently Bitcoin moves in lock step with Black Rocks Ibit Blackbo Black Rock also runs the world's largest spot Bitcoin ETF which we know from 126 to 63. Every time IGV sells off, Bitcoin sells off with it. So they're clearly manipulating the markets. That's not a store value, he says. That's a high beta tech position with a different logo. IBIT changed who owns bitcoin and here it shows you growth of hypothetical 10,000. Say it ain't so hypothetical IBIT growth of 10,000 investment since launch in contrast to the 2021 bull, institutions have become the marginal buyer this cycle while the retail investors have piled into the tech stocks with gold hitting new all time high. Roughly 5,700 announced before it had a massive 25% correction. Bitcoin currently getting left behind. So they say. Though he argued this dynamic can peter shift in the future cycles, Jackson is eyeing an end of the IGV cell pressure and the reemergence of the stablecoin supply expansion through the exchanges. A very important bullish trigger. But here's what the bears are a missing Every cycle the week hands get filtered out and every cycle what replaces them is longer Duration Capital 2017 retail sold at 20 GS. That was the top 2021 fund sold at 69, the next top 10. And in 2025 ETF allocators are selling at 63, which is like a 50% discount from the top. So looking beyond the bitcoin institutional exit, the new wave of institutional money in the years to come will have an entirely different ethos. One that is music to the ears of the long suffering bitcoin hodlers. We're not suffering. You can't lose what you don't sell. So you're only suffering if you put yourself in a position where you sold. So maybe you were forced to, maybe you got liquidated, maybe you had a long, maybe you had a loan, you know, maybe you're trading futures or just, you know, leverage, which is very risky. And I never recommend unless you're a seasoned vet and you know what the you're doing, which most people obviously aren't. But I digress. What comes next? Sovereign wealth funds, Corporate treasuries, pension capital, Money that don't rebalance into quarters. Money that doesn't correlate to the igv. Money that holds for decades, not cycles. This is a long term game, fam. This ain't short term. You're looking for a short term, come up and go to the casino near you. You know, blackjack table, baby. Hit me now. The institutional exit isn't the end of the bitcoin thesis, it's the purification of it. That's right. Diamond hands remain strong. Ain't no one with true conviction selling their bitcoin. That's just how it is. Again, unless you're forced to because you made some stupid decisions along the way. Now the latest data from UK based company Far side Investors puts the Monday net Bitcoin ETF outflows over 200 milli. Bitcoin dipped under 63. That's right. We did touch as I mentioned earlier in the 62 range before getting a little relief rally next story of the day, Michael Sailor says quantum threat to Bitcoin is more than 10 years away. That's right. The strategy co founder dismissed concerns about the quantum computing during appearance on Natalie Bernell's COIN stories. POD and shout out. Natalie saying the cyber security community broadly agrees that any credible quantum threat is likely more than a decade away. While it remains unclear or if when a quantum risk might even materialize, Sailor told the POD host Natalie that any credible breakthrough would prompt coordinated software upgrades across global banking systems, Internet infrastructure, consumer devices, AI networks and Crypto protocols, including Bitcoin, we'd all upgrade common sense, right? Sailor said the digital systems underpinning the modern digital infrastructure would eventually adopt post quantum resistant cryptography, if even necessary, adding that such a Peter shift would not come as a surprise. Quoting him here. You'll see it a coming, we'll see it all a coming, he said, adding that Bitcoin software is designed to change over time with the nodes, the hardware. That's why it's programmable. The wallets are capable of upgrading in response to the emerging threats. You know, I agree. In his view, global consensus on how to respond would emerge only if capable threat develops. Noting governments, technology companies and financial institutions would all face the same risk to their digital system. He also described the crypto sector as the most sophisticated cyber security community. That's right, because if they're capable of hacking the cryptography of Bitcoin, that means they can hack anything else in the world because Bitcoin is the most secure network in the world. Do you understand that? So that puts everything at risk. Pointing to the multifactor authentication and hardware key protections commonly used as secure digital assets. In the Gigachad view, the procedures required to move Bitcoin are significantly more rigorous than the security standards used for traditional bank wires or stock trading systems. I think the crypto community will be the first to perceive the threat and to react to the threat. And they'll be leading the way. Quantum computing is an emerging field of computation that uses the quantum mechanics to process info far faster than classical computers, prompting concerns that advanced machines could eventually break the cryptography, securing Bitcoin and other digital assets. Sailor Strategy, as you know, is the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world. Monday they a added yet another purchase announcement of 592 for roughly 39 million. It's 100th acquisition since adopting the Bitcoin treasury strategy back in August 2020. And here's Sailor Flexen on X strategy has acquired 592 Bitcoin for practically 40 minutes million at 67000 per coin. And as of February 22nd this year we huddle. 717, 722 Bitcoin acquired for 54 billion at 76000 per coin. My understanding he now has an unrealized loss now that he's underwater significantly. It's like $10 billion or something like that. Now the ongoing quantum debate. While Sailor, one of the most prominent advocates, has downplayed the risks posed by quantum computing, others of the industry appear more worried about, for example, vitalik Buterin, one of the co founders of the Ethereum who in late 2025 cited Meta Killis, a forecasting platform suggesting around 20 chance quantum computers are capable of breaking. Cryptography could emerge before 2030 within a median estimate around 2040 which is still was that 19 or 14 years out. Speaking months later at Buenos Aires, he warned elliptic curve cryptography, which underpins Ethereum and Bitcoin fail before the 2028 U. S presidential election, urging a transition to the quantum resistance systems within the next four years. The quantum threat has even caused some to speculate it's the reason behind the recent price decline. I'm skeptical of that logic. I don't know anyone that said I sold my bitcoin because of quantum computing threats. Never once. But a big proponent for that is Nick Carter who's been making the rounds. He says Bitcoin's mysterious underperformance could be attributed to quantum risk concerns, saying the markets were react and even if the developers we're not what's your thought in it And I'll give you this tweet from Checkmate qc Keep some capital away but this argument that gold is up and bitcoin is down because of it just isn't it. Gold has bid because sovereigns are buying it in place of treasuries. The trend has been in place since 08 accelerating after February 22. Bitcoin saw the sell side from the Hodlers in 2025 which could have killed every prior bull thrice over. And then once more yeah we should have QC plans in place quantum computing. But attributing price being down to it as a primary factor is akin to blaming the market manipulation for the red candles and declining the exchange balances for the green ones. So there you go yo. Next up, 40 billion dollar crypto crash. Jane street sued over the terror insider trading. That's right yo check this. Crypto firm Terraform Labs Wind Down Admin has sued Jane street in Manhattan federal court alleging the trading firm used material non public info from Terraform insiders to trade around the May 2022 coll apps of Terra and Luna. The complaint was filed by Todd Snyder, the admin overseeing the recoveries tied to the Terraform bankruptcy. Wind down it names Jane street entities of several individuals including Bryce Pratt and accuses defendants of insider trading, fraud and market manipulation tied to the trading during the DPEG crisis. The suit seeks damages and disgorgement with any recovery intended to support creditor distributions. Now a central part of the case is the role of Pratt, who allegedly moved from an internship at Terraform to a position of Jane street while maintaining contact with Terraform personnel. The complaint claims he kept the confidential back channel with Terraform's head of research and passed along sensitive information. The filing quotes messages according to the plaintiff showing both the existence of confidential communication and an understanding that the info should not be shared. And one message allegedly included the phrase please don't share. The complaint also claims Terraform personnel asked Pratt with Jane street was discussing internally. It just goes to show you they're all corrupt. That point is critical to the plane of theory. The case is not framed as Jane street simply trading aggressively during the volatile market event. It's framed as the claim that Jane street had private info and edge at a moment when the market was relying on public signals and deteriorating liquidity. So it's called insider trading. The lawsuits market narrative centers in the early phase of the USTD PEG and liquidity movements on curve. Snider alleges that after Terraform adjusted liquidity in the Curve 3 pool, a Jane street length 85 million UST trade hit the pool becoming the largest single swap on the Curve three pool. The complaint goes further alleging the trade prec precipitated a steep slight sell off of UST and help trigger the broader collapse of the terra ecosystem. Also describe how conditions worsened over May 8th and 9th with UST trading volume surging and the token falling below $0.8. And if you guys remember that that was one of the stable coins back then that was pretty big and basically dpeg from the dollar and crashed and went to zero. This sequence matters because the plaintiffs trying to connect alleged access to non public info with a specific trading action and then the link that action to damages suffered during the unwind. And yes, for whatever reason my neighbor dogs are kind of going crazy. But notice Nipinator's always a gentleman. He's sleeping right now. He's like that. The suit also cites direct communications during the meltdown May 9, a message reference in the complaint. But anyways, according to the filing, Quan responded to the bill from jump should have contacted Jane street regarding the Terraform file fundraise. The plaintiff uses that exchange to argue Jane street was not just an outside training firm reacting to the market price but was in direct communication with Terraform leadership while emergency options were being discussed. And I'm not surprised this stuff goes on with all the big firms and I'm sure you guys are already well aware there's a handful of conglomerates that own everything in the world and they go like this. BlackRock Vanguard Jane Street. Am I missing one? Those are like the holy trinity that own everything in the world. Virtually every stock in the S P500 they have a piece of. You know, that's what corruption looks like. But there you go. How many more stories we got? Two more stories. This one caught my caught my eye. Solo bitcoin miner bags over 200000 block reward using a rented hash rate through a 75 worth rented hash rate. So 75 hash rate that was rented turned into 200 GS. That's almost like winning the lottery. That's right. The solo bitcoin miner notched the rare win validating an entire bitcoin block securing a huge payday. Using a hobby level mining operation and on demand hash rate. The miner earned 3.125 bitcoin block reward worth 200000 at the current price after successfully mining block number 938,092. Brain said the miner relied on the on chain hash rate and shout out brains. They were actually a sponsor of the Max and Stacy Invitational the previous year and I remember meeting those guys. They were pretty cool. Spending about 119000 satoshis which was only $75 to rent one PETA hash per second of computing power and paying a small solo mining fee in the process. Winning the miner used CK pool, a service that lets individual miners work independently while using a pool server to broadcast the work and submit the solutions and the company said. And while validating the entire block as a solo bitcoin miner is rare, even a sub hundred dollar investment and on the demand hash rate can lead to the lucky payday. On demand hash rate is a cloud based approach that allows would be miners to rent computing power to mine crypto without actually owning the hardware. The miner successfully validated the block around 8:04am Tuesday. That's today to blockchain data. So that's a dub. Solo wins remain statistically rare while validating a block as a solo miner is rare occurrence. 21 miners have managed the feat over the past year, cashing in a total of 66 bitcoin worth 4 million. This marks a 17 increase in solo blocks found during the past year according to the solo miner data aggregator Bennett Now Bitcoin mining industry recovers from the U S Winter storm bitcoin mining difficulty climb 144 trillion after the latest adjustment marking a 15 rise. The adjustment reversed an 11% drop that occurred due to the severe US winter storms earlier in the month. The sharpest decline in the hash rate since the China 2021 mining ban. The hash rate as you know, measures the total computing power behind the bidding network. The network's difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks, roughly every two weeks to keep the block production near the 10 minute target. Now for our feature story of the day. The boldest bitcoin price predictions for 2026 are officially in range from 75G to 225,000 per BTC. Let's break her down, shall we? After the all time high of the big tumble for the bitty this year. Last year combined the two we're down collectively 60%. 59 is the new bottom is the bottom end or we continue to plunge lower. You let me know. The annual roundup of the predictions are officially in. We have predictions dropping as low as 75,000 as the highest and as high as 225,000. The current firmament which is the top was achieved October 6th which is currently 126. Three ballpark coin metrics shed lows of 80 according to that Bitcoin sitting around 30% lower already just for this year. From the start, last year's crypto market was buoyed by what was viewed as a more favorable regulatory environment of the US under the Trumpster and increasing interest from the larger institutional investors and traditional financial players such as the banksters. Jamie Demon Meanwhile there's been a boom in the so called digital asset treasury companies which accumulate large amounts of the bitcoin and other digital coins. There's now over 200 corporate treasury firms and that's all thanks to Sailor who started it off back in 2020 with formerly known as micro strategy, now known as strategy. At the same time, the debate continues over the valuations of the tech stocks whether the AI boom will turn into a bubble. The crypto selloff at the end of the year came against the backdrop. Investors reassessed the risk assets for the crypto holders sold US selling digital currencies that were forced into liquidation which exasperated the selling. This had created a tough backdrop for this year. Quoting Alex Thorne, head of research at Galaxy we are in a complex investing environment. Equity valuations are stretched. The geopolitical environment's chaotic evolving. There's fears about the near term durability of the AI, the CapEx development monetary policy conditions appear to be shifting. The US midterm elections are on the horizon and against this backdrop the outlook for the bidding in 2026 tough to predict. Well, let's start with the low and work our way up to the high. Shall We Carol Alexander says between 75 and 150. I say that's a hell of a range. Right. But obviously again 126 is the top and the current bottom is literally just under 60000 so probably be right. That's a big range though, you know let's continue Coin share says between 120 and 170000 so they seem to be optimistic returning to all time highs this year. They say the U S Fed will be after J Pal's tenure ending in May. The new person is likely to be dovish but the markets will wait for the clarity we shall soon see. Regulation has to be persistent overhang resolution here could be meaningful catalysts moving forward. We have Standard Chartered major banking institution who forecasts 150000 for 2026 which it cut its previous call of 300000 so they I guess they ultimately slashed that mofo in half. You know quoting them here specifically we think buying by the bitcoin digital asset treasury companies is likely over as valuations no longer support the further bitcoin dad expansion. We expect the consolidation rather than outright selling but that buying is unlikely to provide further support. Let me know if you agree. Disagree. Next up Maple Finance 175G's Sydney Powell she's the CEO said oh sorry. He has a price target of 175 for Biddy this year buoyed by the interest rate cuts and increasing institutional adoption of the BTC. Back in 2024 he predicted there'd be some corrections to the price in 2025 which did indeed occur. He also had a bullish 2025 call between 180 and 200. Clearly we didn't hit that high. However he said the big milestone for bitcoin is in 2026 will be when a bitcoin back lending exceeds 100 billion. Quoting them here. Bitcoin huddlers are increasingly sophisticated. They don't want to sell their btc. Preach. They want to borrow against it. Not really. This creates a virtuous cycle. Less selling pressure and more utility, higher prices. Next up we got bit mining again a massive range from 75 the 225,000. What kind of prediction is that? You know. But quoting them here, 2026 could be a strong year for bitcoin supported by the potential rate cuts more accommodating regulatory stance towards the crypto. However, heightened volatility is likely Admit ongoing macroeconomic geopolitical uncertainty and then we'll fast forward to nexo suggesting between 150 and 200 GS per prelo bitty. And I guess that's the last one on the list. I'll leave you with this quote. Bitcoin is entering 2026 with less supply risk and a broader capital base. But let me know where you stand. D.C. bitcoin, you know, hitting potentially that high 225 was the highest number on there. Let me know and I'll entertain your thoughts in the comments. And welcome everyone to the Q A segment of the live stream.
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Everybody ball when it's up everybody go
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on it cuts I'm still here Closer
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to the bottom than the top. Closer to the bottom than the top. Closer to the bottom than the top still 10 toes down when the weak hands dry red lights flash but the brown don't crack brick I build it back closer to the bottom that's heat touch and make steel from the week one more block, one more night thermodynamic lamps on every night they said it's done cool notice same crowd playing when they were chosen Panic post can do scroll motion I zoom out slow while I lens focus your self support it's pour what you sow cold hands fold when it gets too cold no loud flakes, no viral phases long term nerve and steady gaze Top gets noise, bottom gets nerve that's what convict fiction earn this world hear that tip that's hype getting trimmed from the mix talk less stack a lot tick tock, take the shot true bitty grip plot thick, never stop good that's misunderstood everybody wants the summit view you got true bitty great to see it through still current energy store like a thermal bomb one more block, one more fight thermal dynamic lamp song ignite when it gets quiet that's my lane less applause, more long Gang, gang you want the flash cool chase lights I move steady through the midnight no louds out, no creep flit just patience stitch to the grip with blackjacks we don't bend, stack it quiet play for the long win Jesse James moves at night calculated steps, no sweet spotlight we build in the dark unseen slow grind kings low key mean crazy maybe but crazy don't crack when it gets shaky pressure go slow in the dark windows are built with lounge park bottom ain't fierce forge heat incompreh rew the core you blink you, you flinch you fold you hold you all as gold we slayed our way to 80k no delay from the depths we rose bold every day signals to clean no static interference not a trend not luck, not hype your Endurance. Roger out.
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And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.