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2266: $1M Bitcoin — Samson Mow Says The World Still Doesn't Get It
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Try it for free@wix.com Harmony Happy Sat Stacking Saturday. Welcome everyone to the number one daily Bitcoin pod. Bitcoin drops on war headlines as Samson Mouse says 1 million dollar per bitcoin still inevitable. And if he is right this dip may matter less than you think. Also I'm going to be giving you the latest update with the Jane Street Naked Bitcoin short selling manipulation and what's happening right there. Also we shall discuss Mount Gox former CEO is floating a hard fork to recover 80000 hacked Bitcoin. We'll also be sharing a bitcoin treasury shareholder revolt going on right now as well as the latest price action as the Israel and U S bomb Iran whilst we taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is Pod Episode 2266. I'm your host JV alongside the Fed chair, my co host Nipinator keeping them nipinating. So let's dive into our feature story of the day here. Samson Mao says When Bitcoin surpasses $1 million per coin the world will understand that it wasn't a risk asset. This is one of his more recent tweets. You can see February 27th already February 43, 000 views and I'll give you some more tweets here. He also says I'd say until 10 million a coin we're still early because someone put in then will no longer be early potentially and some other tweets. If the world understood bitcoin we'd be at $10 million per coin right now. Let me know if you agree or disagree with Samson. He also says oh it was so obvious is what people are going to be saying in hindsight. And also he points out you're witnessing the greatest rotation of bitcoin and bitcoin based assets from the weak hands to the mega institutions. This was off the back of the headline. South Korea's national Pension Service disclosed an 80 million purchase of strategy MSTR shares. Also he wrote here we're setting up for a decade long bull run and no one is paying attention. And again this is off the back of this news here showing you mass accumulation from strategy South Korea. Jane street also increasing its mstr Jack Dorsey's blocks buying more bitcoin. And you can get the gist of what's happening here. He also says once we get to 500,000 per bitcoin the world is going to wake up. That's when you get to a million dollars very quickly and beyond. He's also prophesized it'll happen in a violent upheaval, meaning it all happened very suddenly. Omega candle, Omega candle, Omega candle. And another tweet here he announced his predictions for 2026, which I'll reiterate, 1.33 million dollar Bitcoin. Omega candle. At least one country launches Bitcoin bonds. Elon goes hard into bitcoin. Micro Strategy goes to $5,000 and Bitcoin outperforms precious metals. Now I'm going to hit you with a video. Check it out.
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Nipinator (Co-host)
Hindsight is always 2020 so people will see it, they'll see it when we go back up. And this is how I think it's going to play out. We're going to see a few God candles come, we're going to jump back up to 100k and a lot of people will be like okay, I'm going to get out now before the bare market hits because they believe in the four year cy or they believe the bear is saying it's going to crash and then once they exit then it's going to just run up like gold did or like silver did, at least double or triple and then they're going to regret it and they're going to buy back in.
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JV (Host)
And this is just so people know. This is the chart that Samson was referencing of the Weimar hyperinflation where the gold price in the mark was just going berserk up and down. So it is, it's wild where we are right now and we're probably where we're headed. Like what are your thoughts short term? Like could you see us going down to 50s and then created like a launch pad and just took off?
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Nipinator (Co-host)
It would surprise me. I, I think this is already very Low like in my view is unbelievable. That's like dropping to 15k. Because a lot of the TA guys, they or even the people that believe in the four year cycle, it's like they just have this belief in their head with it without any substantiation to it. Like the market structure of bitcoin is fundamentally markedly different today than four years ago and the four year period before that. But even that aside, like just because you toss a coin four times and I keep repeating this and you hit heads, heads, tails, heads, it doesn't mean you're going to keep getting that sequence forever. It just that's not how math works, that's not how probability works.
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JV (Host)
Let me know your thoughts with the prediction from Samson Ma. Do you think we will be in a 10 year bull cycle or do you think the 4 year cycle is still intact? And what are your thoughts of us hitting a million dollars per coin as he is suggesting? You know, the Omega candles first triggered by the God candles. And let me define what that means. A God candle is a $10,000 gain on the daily chart. The Omega candle is 10x. A God CH candle ultimately a $100,000 gain on the daily chart. Let me know if you're anticipating seeing any of these soon. And do you agree with what will likely happen and what are your thoughts on his 2026 price prediction of 1.33 million per Bitcoin? Clearly we're only trading at right now what, 66, 67, 000? We're a long ways from that. But can you see that as a possibility or at least a probability? Let me know in the live chat. And also regarding at least one country launching Bitcoin bonds, do you think Elon actually goes hard into Bitcoin this year 2026? Do you think MicroStrategy has a probability of hitting 5 000? I know we're a far way off from there right now and as well as Bitco Gold and silver holler and let me know in the comments. But we're gonna get right into our next story of the day. I'm hitting you with the heat. Check this out. Here's the latest update with Jane street and the bitcoin naked short selling. Justin Belcher gives us an update right here. He wrote bitwise pays Jane street to keep his Bitcoin ETF running. And this week at least two Bitwise insiders went on the record defending Jane street without disclosing that relationship. Matt Hoogan calling you out the bit wise chief Investment officer and Jeff park head of the alpha strategies of Bitwise and the CIO of Pro Cap Bolt spent the week publicly dismissing allegations about the Jane Streets trading behavior. And if you want to get deeper into the trading behavior, the manipulation that's allegedly been going on since 2022, I broke it down in great detail in yesterday's episode and the day before. This is just the update. Just FYI. Hoogan called it a conspiracy theory, lumping it in with past accusations against Bonance and Wintermute. Park framed it as a misunderstanding of the ETF mechanics, arguing no single firm
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JV (Host)
That's servicetitan.com the BTC Price what neither of them told you is that Jane Street Capital is a registered authorized participant of the Bitwise bit B bitcoin ETF. That's BlackRock's bitcoin ETF. They are the authorized participant. Jane Street. That's right. That's in a prospectus Jane street creates redeems the Bit B shares. It provides the liquidity infrastructure that makes the product functional. So if Jane Street's AP relationship with Bit B were questioned, investigated or suspended, it directly impact the fund that generates the Bit wises management phase. Now some reporters did identify park as a bit wise advisor in their coverage, but not one article connected the obvious next dot that the firm park and Hoogan were defending as a contractual counterparty to their own fun. That's the disclosure that mattered and it never appeared. And one of my favorite Max Kaiser quotes it's all fraud and they get a percentage of the fraud. And this is the business model now. These guys aren't neutral market structure experts offering disinterested analysis like they are pretending they are the execs at a company whose Bitcoin ETF depends on on Jane street to operate. So can we take what they say as credible? You tell me. Every public statement they made this week defending Jane Street's trading activity was also a defense of their own funds, infrastructure, their own revenue and their own product. The 83 page federal complaint filed against Jane street in the Southern District of New York alleges insider trading, securities fraud, market manipulation and unjust enrichment. And whether the 10am pattern is real or not. The data clearly proves it is, but it's a separate question. But when the people telling you it's fake are the same people whose ETF runs on the accused firms plumbing, you should know that before you take their word for it. And I actually prepared this video to share with you guys. Give me a second to queue it up. But this is a video of that guy park and Hugin defending Jane street. Basically saying there is no manipulation to see here. But let's see what they have to say.
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Guest/Expert
The reason crypto is down is because people who held Bitcoin at the start of 2025 sold it. That's, that's like, that's it. That's the reason crypto is down. The problem is actually in the mirror. It's not someone outside. It's us looking at each other and saying like, we crypto sold Bitcoin and the price went down. I think the Jane street story has to be fractured into multiple different parts if you want to dig into it. So there's the Terra Luna question. Terra Luna was doomed from the start. There's a reason bitwise never put it in our index. Right. It was doomed from the start. And the question of whether Jane street used insider information to profit on it is something that we'll find out in court. I have no particular view. The question of whether there is some weird magical arbitrage between Jane street and how ETFs are created and a 10am dump just has no actual logical path. If you know how ETFs function, there's like, there's literally no way for Jane street to profit in the ETF market because they're dumping. I've seen so many terrible takes that are just not backed by how ETFs work. I come from. I was CEO of ETF.com, so that story is untrue. The question in the middle is did Jane street ever look at leverage markets and create a cascade of liquidations to put the price. That's a broader question in crypto. Right. A lot of people have said forever that the fact that you can see the leveraged liquidation levels in the market causes some people to create cascades in those markets to I, you know, I don't know. But the latest iteration that there is this weird nexus between Jane Street ETFs and a 10am dump that we only found out about after the fact that one is just false. So I, you know, these, these other two, I don't know, but that one is just false.
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Nipinator (Co-host)
Damn. I was hoping that was true.
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JV (Host)
Personally, I don't buy into what they're saying. Obviously they're trying to cover up for Jane street denying the claims. And also there's a $40 billion lawsuit right now against Jane street for manipulating the markets and doing all this kind of shenanigans. And also Trump is allegedly launching a lawsuit, which we covered in yesterday's episode, against Jane street to just dismiss those claims. Oh, there's no truth to that when we can see it on chain them dumping 888 bitcoin at the start of every trading session at 10am oh, that doesn't exist to me. So I'm, you know, I'm happy. Justin Belcher been doing these exposes exposing Jane street for the bitcoin market manipulation. We'll see how it plays out. A 40 billion dollar lawsuit is no joke. So I'm sure we'll get to the bottom of it. But these lawsuits get drawn out for years and years, unfortunately. And this is dating all the way back to 2022 with the collapse of Terra and Luna with their stable coin de pegging from the dollar which caused all the carnage in the market. Right. So there's also speculation that bitcoin, if it was truly a free market in the sense there wasn't naked short selling going on from the likes of Jane Street. We can easily been 150,000, even 200,000 plus during our bull run up. But instead price action has been suppressed. And more recently, I'd say the same thing. Every time we hit 70,000 or above, there is an orchestrated selloff across the entire market, all the major exchanges. And what Jane street is doing behind closed doors, we'll never know unless it gets exposed. So thank God they've been exposed. We'll see how this plays out and I'll be giving you an update. Let's continue with the news, shall we? Next story. Yo, Mount Gox's former CEO floating hard for the fork to recover 80, 000 hack Bitcoin. I say no, I don't like that idea, but let's dive in and at least entertain what the he's trying to say here. The former CEO Mount Gox, calling for the community support of a proposal to recover 5.2 billion stolen from the bitcoin exchange more than a decade ago, on Friday submitted a pro a proposal to the GitHub data consensus rule that would 80,000 Bitcoin back from Mount Gox, which is currently sitting in a single wallet, to be moved to a recovery address without the original private key. Quoting them here. These coins have not moved in over 15 years. They are amongst the most well known and publicly tracked UTXOs and Bitcoin history. Jameson Lop added here this is a protocol level change, so it needs to be a VIP before it's a pull request to change the code and implementations now. They also said the Mt. Gox trustee is already overseeing distributions to predators and if the bitcoins were recoverable, the existing legal and logistical framework would distribute them to the rightful owners. Quoting them here I want to be up front. This is a hard fork. It makes a previously invalid transaction valid. All nodes would need to upgrade before the activation height. I'm not trying to disguise the fact or sneak it through as something else. However, he also said the proposal wasn't intended to bypass the bitcoin development process. Instead, it's an attempt to start a discussion within the bitty community. As Luke wrote here, not that way. The court should order the thief to turn over the private key. That's what I'm saying. It sounds pretty simple to me. Hey thief, turn over the private key. Easy peasy. Now the Mt. Gox trustee has declined to pursue on chain recovery, citing the uncertainty of whether such a consensus change would ever be adopted. Personally, I'm skeptical this creates a deadlock. The trustee won't act without certainty and the community can't evaluate the idea without a concrete proposal. This patch breaks the deadlock by providing something concrete to discuss. Now for the Bitcoin immutability at risk. According to the critics, the proposal saw strong opposition on the online forum Bitcoin Talk, which argues that it would set a bad president for Bitcoin, a decentralized crypto intended to be irreversible and immutable. And I agree with that. They say here each time a hack incident happens, someone will call for another new consensus rule to recover the stolen funds. This will destroy the bitcoin concept in full. Bitcoin should be independent from the law enforcement deciding in any jurisdiction and let me know if you agree with that as well. Now a brief recaps of the Mount Gox collapse. This was the biggest exchange operating back from 2010 to 2014 they handled 70% of all Bitcoin transactions in in the world. Then on February 14th or sorry 24th 2014 the leaked document claimed the company was Insolvent after losing 744 Bitcoin in a theft that was undetected for years. Then the exchange filed Bankruptcy later in 2014 reported it had 65 million in liabilities after losing 750,000 of customers Bitcoin and 100,000 of their own. Now naturally that's worth a lot more than 65,750,000. Bitcoin today is a fortune. But how do you think this will play out? How do you think they'll recover the funds? Will they recover the funds? And it seems like the biggest losers are always customers, you know, will they get it back from the hacker? Let me know. But anyways, next story of the day buying bitcoin we got to hold at least three years to avoid the losses. This is according to the data. Now I've been preaching if you're going to be in bitcoin you should be a long term huddler and you should huddle for minimal one to two cycles, which is four to eight years because it's, it's a lock. The statistics show you're going to have incredible gains if you can huddle for that long. It's not a get rich quick overnight thingy majig, if you know what I'm saying. So let's entertain this bitwise analysis review to biddy price between July 17th, 2010 and February 11th the greatest day on the planet 2026 concluding that the probability of being in the red drops just 0.7% if Bitcoin's held at least three years. So you have less than a 1% chance of having an unrealized loss if you can hodl for three years or longer. Which really makes it a no brainer. Look at the chart as time horizon grows and you know we're low time preference, we're bitcoiners. Probability of the loss per hotlin period and you can see it just drops off on 3 years at 0.7% if you're only going to huddle for a year 24 chance of a loss 1/4 37 chance of a loss 1 month 43 chance of a loss 1 week 44 of a loss 1 day 47 chance of a loss now if you can huddle for 10 years 0% of a loss. So that should be everyone's goal huddle for at least a decade. No brainer. In other words, nearly all rolling three year entry points into Bitcoin history ended up profitable. Take that to the bank haters. Stronger hands are 90 in profit already with the mild spaghetti. The realized price metric also shows declines in huddler's losses over multi year windows as of sat sack and Saturday Bitcoin down roughly 50 from the October 2025 high trading for around 65 GS. That was way above the 3 to 5 year realized price which was only 34, 7 80. Meaning investors who bought and held through that window were still sitting on approximately a 90% profit. Meanwhile, some traders argue the ongoing bitcoin price correction could extend towards 30 GS. Now I'm skeptical that we crack that low. I think the bottom is almost in but I do think we're test you know that 599 we hit the other week and potentially drop into the mid-50s or even the low-50s. But remember there is no telling with the cost paid. Ms. Yelling bananas now how high can a biddy price go over the long term? I thought you never asked. We can hit targets of 150, 222, 300 000. Samson's calling for 1.33 million this year as one of his 2026 bold predictions. We already covered but let me know your thoughts. We also have Standard Chartered bank who is very bullish. They're saying we go back to a hundred thousand by the end of 2026. Timothy Peterson framework calling for 122. I'm saying if we're gonna rise back up to that range I think we can realistically break out above it. Reach a new all time high. Anything could happen you know. But we'll see how it plays out. Next story the Bitcoin treasury shareholder revolt LA Revolution the revolution will not be televised as being live streamed seven days a week right here with JV in the Fed chair nipinator. But anyways after months of sliding digital asset prices, public companies that embrace Bitcoin as a Treasury strategy are facing renewed scrutiny. Activist investors are now challenging those balance sheet bets echoing the broader concerns about the volatility and the long term viability of the corporate Bitcoin model. Stablecoins meanwhile continue to anchor the market circle. Posted a stronger than expected fourth quarter even as early signs of so called crypto winter began to surface. Nervous but he looks calm and ready to drop bombs. But not all. Every payment player is a sharing in the momentum, PayPal's push into digital assets, including the launch of the PayPal USD Z coin has yet to reverse the stock decline, with reports suggesting the company is drawing takeover interest. Also, Empiry Digital faces shareholder revolt over the bitcoin treasury. Nearly 10% of shareholders of Empery Digital is calling for sweeping changes including a sale of the company's 4,000 Bitcoin holdings and the resignation of the CEO and board. Makes me wonder was their CEO on the Epstein client list? What's going on over here? I'm not too familiar with the empire Digital. Let me know if you heard of them. But in a letter to management, investor Tice Brown argued the bitcoin heavy treasury strategy has failed to maximize shareholder value to abandon the capital be returned to investors. Instead, Empery pushed back against the claims defending the strategy. The dispute highlights the growing tension between the activist investors and the public companies that have adopted Bitcoin as a core balance sheet asset. And there's now over 200 of them. It all started with strategy or formerly known as micro Strategy back in 2020. Shout out to the Gigachad, you know, the sailor man. Empery, which transitioned as legacy business into bitcoin treasury last year, amass4081 Bitcoin, making it one of the top 25 largest public holders of the bitcoin. Now for some of the Circle earnings. USDC growth fuels the stock rally. Stablecoin issuer Circle delivered a Stronger than expected fourth quarter. Fourth quarter revenue reached 770 million up 77% from the year past. Net income total 133 million. But yeah, I'm not a fan of Circle or USDC personally. You know, USDT for me is the go to stable Coin. It's been around the longest, has the highest, you know, market cap by far. And Circle I've always viewed as an enemy of the Bitcoin because the people behind it clearly are enemies of bitcoin if you listen to what the they say. But anyways, for the entire year Circle has now reported 2.7 billion of revenue and a net loss of 70 million. That was due to the stock based compensation tied to it the initial public offering. Also PayPal draws takeover interest after steep stock decline. I said it before, I say it again. Just like the jizza genius from the Wu Tang said Tommy ain't my boy. He was dissing Tommy boy records. Same dis for paypal. Pay ain't my pal. That's all I gotta say. I've never been a fan of the PayPal don't trust them. I don't care about their stable coin, don't use them, don't show support because I'll never forget them freezing accounts and basically locking you out of your funds for six months for no logical reason. It's just the forces of evil payment rails I prefer the bitcoin any day of the week but anyways it is what it is. There's a 500 million dollar stablecoin mortgage deal bridging D5 the housing going on right now which is under structure. We'll see how this all plays out, you know as bitcoin adoption continues all around the world. But anyways let's knock out our final story of the day. Bitcoin price drops to 63 as US Israel bomb Iran and they have taken out the leader. It is official now. Ironic though, we started pumping right before the stream went live so we're currently at 66,5 so we're up 3,500from bottoming out at 63 but we're still going to get you with what's been happening in the market here. Trading View Show Price Testing 63 the good news, it held up and we're onwards and upwards here on a sat stack and Saturday Trump did release a new video say the goal was to move to targets Iran nuclear infrastructure finished by calling on Iranians to take control of the incubant government. He says when we're finished, take over your government, it'll be yours to take, whatever that means. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years you have asked for America's help but you've never got it. With the U S stock market futures yet to open, Crypto was alone in deciding how to react to the fresh geopolitical instability and it's very odd. We're actually pumping on the back of the war which typically when there's news of war it tanks the market. But then again there's been a lot of suppression as I've been ousting people or companies like Jane street which we broke down earlier, which I've been suppressing. The market coin glass show liquidations pass on 200 the million and four hours. The US and Israel now appear to be at war with Iran for the second time in eight months. The Kabisi letter pointed this out, referencing Iran's offensive in 2025, an event that sparked immediate volatile reactions across the markets. Bitcoin reacts to familiar cues with core support levels holding for the btc. Fresh escalation comes at a key time for traders as the final hours tick down to the February monthly close. Oh, that's right. We do get a February monthly close. Well, let's look at. We'll do a quick market watch. Bitcoin currently at 66,500. We are in the green on the day. The bulk of the market is all in the green, which we love to see. Maybe bitcoin's born with it, maybe it's Maybelline. But we're green like Listerine and coin. Market cap, total crypto Market cap down 1 1/2% on the day. Trading at 2.24 trillion. Bitcoin market cap 1.33 trillion. And take that, evildoers, Bitcoin green and fear index. Today we're an 11 and a divine omen. An extreme fear. Yesterday, 13 last week and eight last month. 26 in fear. And checking out the time chain calendar. Today's block height number 938, 767. And you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1501 sets. So you know precisely what to do. You pick up the stats, put down the gas, and pick up some bitcoin caps from a man, Sergio, over@bitcoin gaps.net and if you don't know, now you know, Broski. There you go, yo. That's the new structure for the podcast. And now we're in the Q A segment of the live stream. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.