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2267: $1 BILLION Bitcoin — Fidelity's Long-Term Thesis Still Stands
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- [00:00]
JV (Host)
Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.
- [00:27]
Joe from Vanta
Hi, this is Joe from Vanta. In today's digital world, compliance regulations are changing constantly and earning customer trust has never mattered more. Vanta helps companies get compliant fast and stay secure with the most advanced AI automation and continuous monitoring out there. So whether you're a startup going for your first SoC2 or ISO 27001 or a growing enterprise managing vendor risk, Vanta makes it quick, easy and scalable. And I'm not just saying that because I work here.
- [00:53]
JV (Host)
Get started@vanta.com Happy Sat Stacking Sunday welcome everyone to the number one Daily Bitcoin Pod. In today's show we'll discuss the most bullish bitcoin price prediction you have ever heard. Fidelity, the major asset managers long term bitcoin model, is implying $1 billion per coin for BTC. Meanwhile Wall street is talking 500, 000 per BTC. I'll be breaking it down for you. And billionaires like Grant Cardone are ab in real time and Bitcoin just recovered through the geopolitical chaos. This isn't retail hype, this is institutional repricing. Also, Sailor just posted the infamous Sailor tracker which is a hint of another major acquisition announcement tomorrow. Also in the news, six Polymark traders net 1 million on the U.S. iran strike, sparking insider fears. I'll be breaking it down for you. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here. Sat Stacking Sunday. Today is POT episode 2267. I'm your host JV. It's Sunday, March 1st, 2026. Febr is behind us. We've had six consecutive bearish months and maybe we'll get a little relief here in March. Let me know your thoughts, but let's go ahead and kick it off with our feature story of the day which is discussing Fidelity's most bullish bitcoin price prediction of all time. I dare say probably the most bullish bitcoin price prediction in existence. And this is the number one bull channel if you haven't figured it out. But let me show you what I'm talking about. Fidelity went on record back in 2021. It was Jurian Timmer, the head of their macro, and they made this auspicious prediction of the bitcoin price hitting 1 billion by this specific date, which is by 2038. Now considering we're in 2026, what is that? 2026 is not too far out from where we're at. What is that 12 years from now? Now if one bitcoin were to hit this type of price action, you can only imagine how worthless the US dollar or digital dollar would be by that point. But nonetheless, we're going to entertain this because it's fun, it's exciting. And what if they're right and then we'll transition to Wall street suggesting we have a 50,000, I'm sorry, $500,000 bitcoin price on the horizon. But let's do a little deep dive here into our feature story. So it's Jury and Timmer of Fidelity. They forecast Bitcoin to reach a billion and they also had 100 million prediction by 2035. Apparently they upped it. Can't make this up. One Bitcoin may be equivalent to 1 billion by 2038, according to Jurian Timmer. He is the director of Global macro at Fidelity. Timmer backed up his assertion with the 4 hour chart what combined the stock to flow model with his demand model and quoting him right here, Metcalfe's law holds that as the number of its users grow linearly, a network's value grows geometrically. So the implication is that the utility value of Bitcoin will outgrow its operational network. The this operational network encompasses the buyers, the sellers, the exchanges and the ATMs. In addition, it includes participating retailers both directly and indirectly and some leading organizations such as the Dallas Mavericks and AT&T. Rounding out this network are a few issuers, or I should say insurers, as well as several banks and multitudes of small businesses. Now this prediction also note was originally made before the Bitcoin ETF adoption which then occurred. They didn't go live till January 11th of 2024. So this is three years prior to that. Now Timmer's own demand model grows very slowly in proportion to the stock to flow combination supply model, the asset management's directors demand model predicts bitcoin to reach 1 million by 2030. Now that's fair play, I'd say. A lot of us would probably say, yeah, very realistic, you know, by the year 2030, 1 million, right. In alignment with ARC invests Kathy Wood. Now the stock to flow combo model forecasts a price between 1 million and 10 million. Again realistic jury and timbers demand model sees seems historically to represent the floor or the bottom of the price. Stock to flow model appears to be a better fit for the peak. However, it's the gap between both models which widens significantly after 2030. And here's where things get interesting. One of the suggested reasons for the widening gap after 2030 is the change in value to the dollar. So you can dare say the death of the dollar. It should be noted however that this reasoning is not set in stone. And speaking of the death of the fiat, more recently Iran's local currency just went to zero. And Bitcoin obviously is going parabolic against it. You guys got to check out that chart. But anyways back to this billion dollar prediction. Due to the changes of the dollar Jurian stated the value of the dollar changes in relation to to other assets. Further pointing to the $1 invested in stocks in the 18th century now worth 4 billion of today's money. Obviously a great example of inflation. So going by this assumption the $1 million today could be a billion dollars in 20 years time. No, that's hyperinflation. That's a great example. Changes in the dollar's value, especially depreciation over several decades render the same amount with less purchasing power. This is why huge sums back then appear to be less by today's standards. For instance, 1 million could purchase a lot of significant things a couple of decades ago. To put this in perspective, reasonably higher end houses the US cost between 20,000 and 50,000. The same 1 million may not suffice for the same class of houses today. Yeah, that's right. Probably the average decent house is like a half a million in the United States right now due to the inflation over the decades. So there is an increasing number of billionaires across the globe today. Some observers even believe that we may see the first trillionaire. Oh it's a given. Elon's net worth is already surpassed $800 billion. So there there's most likely he's going to be a trillionaire here very soon. The same applies to organizations with several companies now passing the 1 trillion market cap. A great example is Nvidia, the fastest company to grow to a multi trillion dollar valuation or market cap. I believe it's now over trillion. Now you got Anthropic and these other AI competitors obviously doing big things. Fidelity had previously pegged bitcoin to hit 100 million. This was their original prediction by the year 2035 using the same stock to flow model we have Jury and Timmer also made predictions back then as untested and uncertain.
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Joe from Vanta
Hi, this is Joe from Vanta. In today's digital world, compliance regulations are changing constantly and earning customer trust has never mattered more. Vanta helps companies get compliant fast and stay secure with the most advanced AI automation and continuous monitoring out there. So whether you're a startup going for your first SoC2 or ISO 27001 or a growing enterprise managing vendor risk, Vanta makes it quick, easy and scalable. And I'm not just saying that because I work here.
- [08:27]
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- [08:31]
JV (Host)
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- [08:44]
JV (Host)
his predictions are he is not the only one with such lofty forecasts. We also have Deutsche bank and other forecasts that Bitcoin will dominate by 2030. Well, here's the thing, let me know where you stand. As far as bitcoin realistically hitting a billion dollars, is it possible? Anything is possible. But yeah, a great example is the dollar will had depreciated tremendously and maybe that will happen. Maybe the dollars we know it won't even be in existence in the next 12 years. We'll probably have the digital version which is the CBDC coined a stable coin, but really it's a programmable dollar. You know what I mean? But yeah, hyper bitcoinization, you know and all that kind of stuff could play out. You know I'm not banking on a billion dollar bitcoin in my lifetime but if it happens I'm fully embracing it. That's all. Next up, let's dive right into Fidelity thinking bitcoin may be leaving it's 80 crashes behind because we just discussed a billion dollar bitcoin and right now we're already roughly 60 down from the all time high when we went from the 126 achieved in October to the current low more recently a couple of weeks ago we which was 599 so are 80% crashes a thing of the past? You guys got to let me know your thoughts on where you side with this. In a February 24 research note titled Is Bitcoin's Four Year Cycle Over? Research, analyst Zach framed the call around a simple observation. Bitcoin is now a very different sized asset with a very different buyer base. Fidelity pegs the bitcoin market cap at an all time high of roughly 2 1/2 trillion as of October 2025 around the time we hit the all time high alongside signs with deeper liquidity and a steadier volatility volatility regime than the prior cycles. Quoting them here. As bitcoin matures, price behavior is diverging from the previous cycles, volatility decreasing even as the price reached a new high of 126. Bitcoin's demand is being reshaped. And another question I have for you guys. Do you think the bottom is in or do you think we'll likely test a lower low here? Let me know now. This time Fidelity says the compression is arriving sooner after peak, noting 17 new all time highs in one year. Realized volatility lagged or logged in January of 2020 six months after Bitcoin hit the fresh all time highs in October. Calling it a meaningful divergence from a cadence of earlier cycles, the team attributes part of that dampening to scale. Bitcoin's about twice the market cap as it was at the 2021 peak, roughly 10x the 2017 peak and over 200x the 2013 peak. The second pillar is who is holding the supply and how sticky that demand appears. Fidelity highlights a cohort of 49 public companies currently holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin, each with combined holdings above 1 million BTC, roughly 5% of the current circulating supply. It also notes that since the first quarter of 2020, this group increased holdings quarter over quarter in every quarter except quarter two of 2022, which was when Tesla sold a large portion of its position. Now I also want to point out Sailor did tweet this here earlier today. You can see time stamped 11:13am March 1, the turn of the century. And this is the infamous Sailor tracker which is a precursor that tomorrow he will make another announcement that strategy acquired more bitcoin for the week. So shout out to the Mikey the Sailor man and let's continue with some of the headlines. Another bullish prediction for you right here. Bitcoin headed to a half a million per coin according to this Wall street analyst. So yeah, check it. It's been roughly or it's been a rough year to say the least for crypto in general. Bitcoin's price has fallen. Currently we're sitting just above 65. At the time of the live March 1st here, the total market cap is down around 1.3 trillion. Total crypto market cap is down surpassing 2 trillion. And another price surge could just be around the corner. Remember, there is no telling with the constipated Ms. Yelling bance. So yeah, according to this Wall street analyst you'll want to listen to why he believes Bitcoin holders shouldn't give up. That's right. Ain't no quit in my swagger. We got the bitty swagger. Expect more pain over the short term. G off Kendrick. Not Kendrick Lamar, not Kot. Don't get it twisted. The research analyst at Standard Chartered, the British bank with nearly a trillion in assets, recently warned investors that that the crypto correction may not be completely behind us yet quoting them here near term we see potential for further price downside in the coming months. Why? Because investors still seem to be withdrawing assets from the crypto based ETFs. Holdings of digital asset ETFs have fallen and the average Bitcoin ETF holding is now down around 25%. We could thank the likes of the Black Rocks, the fidelities etc Black Rock IBIT being the largest. Kendrick views the recent volatility as nothing other than a speed bumpy bump along the way to his long term price prediction. This year he believes Bitcoin to regain a hundred thousand mark. Let me know your thoughts on that. As the emerging asset class continues to mature and become more resilient. That's right. Looking beyond 2030, Kendrick remains confident in his 500000 price prediction. He says we think that the involvement of institutional investors and ETFs will cushion the downside this time leading to less extreme total declines. He observes now our constructive long term view remains intact. So yeah, it's not hard to find other bullish price predictions out there. The latest estimates from ark invest, the one and only Kathy wood calling for 710000 bitcoin by the top of the decade 2030 and at minimum the firm anticipates a 300000 per bitcoin price with a one and a half million per bitcoin price target. If it's conditions allow I say send it. ARC's number one value drivers the institutional investment primarily through the spot ETS. So in short, both Kendrick and Kathy Wood believe the institutional involvement will drive the bitcoin long term value while mitigating the downside potential. But there is one other value driver investor should monitor closely. So let's dive I guess a little deeper. Will bitcoin really reach 500,000 and what does the timeline look like? You guys got to let me know your thoughts. So with scarcity let's break this down. Goals total market cap right now and we're going to do a deep dive into gold and grant Cardone. I even have A clip prepared for you. He is all in on Bitcoin right now and moving away from gold. We'll discuss why that is. But the market cap of gold, we just hit an all time high. More recently 5700 announced 36 trillion right now market cap. So bitcoin's market cap with just 1.3 trillion. If Bitcoin would reach a value parity with gold, a single Bitcoin would have to be worth roughly 1.7 million. Now how many of you agree that Bitcoin is a greater store of value than gold? And the big reason? It's a truly scarce asset. Gold, relatively scarce. They find another 1 to 2% of the supply every year. Every single year, like clockwork. They just invest into discovering more. You can't say the same with Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a finite limited supply 21 million hard cap you already know. So experts like Kathy Wood are also on board with this valuation approach. Her firm ARC Invests recently called Bitcoin a nimbler, more transparent store of value relative to gold. And I agree Bitcoin's potential to take the market share from gold is a big factor behind the prediction. The they say in our view, bitcoin as digital gold is an appealing narrative and will drive penetration. Let me know if you agree. So 500,000.
- [16:49]
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- [17:38]
JV (Host)
Advanta.com I say short term target in play. I say by 2031 to 1.5 million, potentially more. I guess there's no telling. It depends upon the value of the dollar. By that time you know as well. Next up, billionaire Grant Cardone went on a rampage against the gold. He says try to sell 10 million of gold, you only get 70% of the market price. That's a great distinction. When you sell Bitcoin, you're going to get the market price on the exchange at that very time. And it's 24 7. Best of luck going to the pawn shop. I like to sell my gold. Well, they're going to take advantage of you because they got to make a profit. That's just the way the world works. He says bitcoin is the real thing. That's right. And I'm in love with Mary Jane. You can trade millions in minutes. And it's not only money, it's technology. But don't take my word for it. Let's hear it directly from Grant. Here's a short video clip.
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Grant Cardone
I know a guy right now trying to get rid of like 10,000 pieces of silver. He can't really. He can't get a real offer on it. Everybody, he's getting a 30% discount below the market.
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JV (Host)
Damn.
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Grant Cardone
Like this. This is. People see it just spiking up like this and like, oh my God. Goals at 100. Go try to sell a shitload of gold. Go to Go try to sell $10 million worth of gold day. And watch what happens. You're going to have offers 20 and 30% below market.
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JV (Host)
Right.
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Grant Cardone
Because you want to sell your goal. Now you're showing your hand, putting your flag up. Say surrender. I want my 100 bucks. You're not going to get $100 for your goal. Not in scale. I mean listen, you're not going to get. Not. You're not going to get it tomorrow. Yeah. Much less than five minutes. Gold, same thing. It's got to go get it authenticated. It's got to get validated. It's got to get. Dude, there's a lot of fake gold. Okay, then. Then somebody's going to have to pay you the money and then you got to get it out of storage. Okay. The bitcoin, dude, the bitcoin is a real thing.
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Vanta Advertisement Voice
So.
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JV (Host)
Right.
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Grant Cardone
I can have it tomorrow. I could trade it back to you five minutes like that. That to me is real. Because bitcoin to me is not just money. It is technology. Un unlike gold or silver or even paper stocks. Okay. Paper stocks is a technology like. But they can just keep printing the paper forever.
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JV (Host)
He makes excellent points. Bada boom, bada bing about a bitcoin. Simple as that. Gold. You can't compare gold to digital gold. Bitcoin is superior in every aspect. What he just mentioned. You're going to get below the gold price. They got to mark it up or get a profit and flip it. With bitcoin you can get the actual market value in an instant. On a weekend, on a holiday, etc. Markets never close and we can't Forget the fact Bitcoin's unconfiscatable. Your gold bars can be stolen from you or confiscated, just like in the Gold Seizure act of 1933. And there's plenty of other reasons Gold Relative scarcity Bitcoin true scarcity as I referenced a little earlier. So let's dive into our next story here. Shout out Grant Cardone. He's billionaire all in. He's selling his real estate for bitcoin. Obviously he's a big proponent. Shout out his brother Gary as well. But anyways Tokenized gold leads 100% of the weekend price discovery while the CME futures are closed that's right, gold price shifts onto the blockchain networks once U.S. futures markets close for the weekend. Credit Suisse former Chief officer and CIO at liquidity infrastructure firm Theo say the CME Go Future stopped trading at 5pm Friday and then reopen 6pm on Sunday. During the interval, regulated futures markets are inactive and most remaining activity occurs through private over the counter deals and in terms of publicity, visible price formation onchain markets are responsible for virtually 100% of the weekend price discovery. And as you can see, tokenized gold market cap has now jumped to 4.4 billion. The Peter Schiff comes amid the rising trading volume of the tokenized gold. And of course there's lots of derivatives of gold trading. In fact, the majority of what's being traded is not even the physical gold. And I even question is there even a goal supply still left for the United States of Fort Knox or has it all been moved out to the criminals, drug traffickers, anti money laundering, tax avoidance? You let me know. The sector's market cap rose 177% outpacing the broader gold market and most major spot gold ETFs, while the number of the holders nearly tripled with more than 115,000 new wallets. The growth represented roughly a quarter of all net inflows into the real world asset sector and exceeded the combined expansion of tokenized stocks, corporate bonds and non U S Treasuries. Trading activity also surged. Tokenized gold recording 178 billion last year in volume two, peaking above 126 billion just in the fourth quarter. That level could make it the second largest gold investment product globally by trading volume and SPDR Gold shares 24. Seven tokenized gold trading lets the investors manage the risk. Tokenized gold markets allow for continuous trading which offers a practical risk management advantage if a geopolitical event occurs while futures markets are closed. Like the war in Iran this weekend, traditional participants Cannot just adjust positions. Tokenized markets must immediate do the rebalancing. On Saturday, for example. Yesterday, tokenized goal rallied as geopolitical tensions escalated following the US Israeli strikes on Iran with investors moving into the xau, which is the gold, while bitcoin and ether briefly climb, uh 5450 and uh, 5536 during the day, uh, before the trimming. I guess this is the gold and Pax gold there, but yeah, so roughly 5,400 announced as you can see in this chart. 5,383 to be more precise. But yeah, yo, I wanted to point that out. You know there's gold. It's doing phenomenal this year after being, I would say suppressed for quite some time. Next story. Six poly market traders net a million dollars on the U. S Iran strike, sparking insider fears. Now this is one of the concerns of these gambling markets like Poly Market and KI can attract insider trading. There's got to be someone on the inside that knows what's going to happen before everyone else and they could profit off of that. So let's dive into this. Six polymarket traders earn roughly a million bucks after accurately betting that the US Would strike Iran before the end of February, triggering insider trading suspicions. That's what I'm saying. The six wallets were all created in February. Place nearly all of their crypto activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential U. S attack, according to the Bloomberg report citing data shared by analytics firm. In several cases, shares were purchased hours before the explosions. That's scary. Were first reported with some contracts acquired for around 10 cents per the report. The timing drew attention from on chain investigators who said the pattern resembles behavior previously linked to suspected insider activity on prediction markets. As pointed out here, someone in Pete Heesh's inner circle is leaking Department of War data for Insider trading on polymarket. 500,000 in profits extracted in a day. This incognito trader knew about the US strikes on Iran in advance. I wonder if it's Baron Trump. Just saying. Bet was placed just a couple of hours before the strikes. Here's the proof. From 11 cents to 100 cents. 800% profit on the classified insider info. Which US bigwig is throwing away their military honor for the bags. And that's sad. It's only for a million dollars. They're doing that right.
- [25:08]
Vanta Advertisement Voice
Your software needs to be compliant to win deals. But you also need your engineers focused on building your product, not pulling SOC2 evidence. Enter a third option. Make Vanta your first security hire. Vanta uses AI and automation to get you compliant fast. Simplify your audit process and unblock deals so you can prove to your customers that you take security seriously. Plus, Vanta scales right along with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. That's why top startups like Cursor, Linear and Replit use Vanta to get and stay secure. Don't sock block your best engineer, set them free and get compliant fast with vanta. Get started.
- [25:57]
JV (Host)
Advanta.com this wallet ain't alone tons of sus one day accounts farming millions on regular U. S military leaks. In cases involving wars or conflict, info can circulate within the broader circle before becoming public. Hopefully they're investigated yo you know now during the recent escalation, more than 529 million flowed into the strike related contracts on polymarket. The specific February 28 contract alone attracted 90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular strike strike date amongst traders. Notably, one of the flagged accounts had previously lost money on an earlier prediction before placing the wager that later returned more than 170,000, suggesting that the trades do not by themselves prove wrongdoing. Washington had also publicly warned of possible military action. For weeks there has been more instances of insider trading allegations on Polymarket. For example, this week small cluster of wallets earn more than 1.2 million betting on a contract tied to the onchain investigation into the D5 platform axiom. Shortly before Zack XBT published claims that an employee and associates have been engaged in insider training trading. Then also last month Polygarn account made 400,000 from a well timed wager on the capture of President Madoro of Venezuela. The wallet had placed 32,000 on Madoro's removal shortly before the news became public. So it's almost like we can watch these prediction markets to predict the future in real time because there tends to always be an insider that's willing, you know, to make a bet. And to me that's very risky. I would assume these mofos get investigated, but you just don't know. Maybe they're above the law, maybe they're Epstein's clients and no one's going to look into it. You know what I mean? All right fam Bitcoin traders I the Iran reactions as the oil sparks US 5% inflation forecasts. Here's the latest. What's happening? Traders are calling for 74000 for the bitty price recovery. Let me know your thoughts here. Here. We're looking at a one hour chart and we're currently shy of 66000 at the time of the live after correcting after a nice bullish Saturday the weekend prevented the tradfi markets from adjusting to the events in real time with the stock market futures down 0.6%. Crypto continued volatility as we can see markets are coming are correcting back down as there's uncertainty of how the US markets will open tomorrow. You know especially with the war going on. On the other hand the 21 day moving average needs to break in order to have a relief rally. I think we'll see it in March slash April. Question of how we're opening the markets tomorrow. So that's you know what we're keeping an eye on. Van day Pop says bitcoin looks good in the short term. Deviation below the support zone has now flipped resistance into support. I think a rally toward 7374 level could happen. Let me know if you agree disagree. We have been suppressed below the 70000 level for quite some time. Some argue the geopolitical instability has been priced in by the market in advance. I have heard that a lot as well. We will probably move sideways for the next days according to the crypto Caesar, let me know if you agree disagree now also despite being in international waters the straight becomes a holding ground for the oil shipping on Sunday leading to swift analysis of the knock on effect of U. S inflation. Kabisi letter points out JP Morgan suggesting that the CPI could jump to 5%. The last time we saw U S inflation at 5% was back in 2023 when the Fed was aggressively hiking the rates, you know what I mean? And checking out coin360 real quick you could just see the bulk of the market all correcting and in the red on the day. It's red day. Checking out coinmark cap.com current crypto market cap sitting at 2.28 trillion. Bitcoin market cap just above 1.3 trillion. Checking out top 100 crypto gainers past 24 hours. Not much in the green. The bulk of the market wrecked on the day. Checking out the crypto greed and fear index today we're 14 extreme fear yesterday 11 last week a nine. And checking out the infamous time chain calendar today is block height 938, 912 and you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1530 sats so you know precisely what to do. Pick up the stats, put down the gats and pick up some bitcoin caps from my man Sergio over@bitcoin caps.net and don't forget to check out Bitcoin newsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.
- [30:32]
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Your software needs to be compliant to win deals, but you also need your engineers focused on building your product, not pulling SOC2 evidence. Enter a third option. Make Vanta your first security hire. Vanta uses AI and automation to get you compliant fast. Simplify your audit process and unblock deals so you can prove to your customers that you take security seriously. Plus, Vanta scales right along with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. That's why top startups like Cursor, Linear and Replit use Vanta to get and stay secure. Don't sock block your best engineer. Set them free and get compliant fast with Vanta. Get started@vanta.com.