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2268: $1M Bitcoin Is Coming — Liquidity Cycle Turns
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It feels like AI can do everything. Write the code, analyze the data. It can even suggest your next move. But there's one thing AI can't do. Think for your people. With AI, the real advantage isn't the tools. Anyone can do that. The real advantage is human readiness. That's why the smartest companies aren't asking, do we have AI? They're asking, can our people keep up to build a learning program that keeps your people ahead. Learn with docebo. Docebo. Never stop learning.
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Welcome Bitcoin fam, to the number one bitcoin pod. In today's show, we shall discuss bitcoin to $1 million per coin. It's not a meme anymore. It is being modeled. This cycle I'll break it down for you. In fact, Mr. Sailor says if it's not going to zero, it's going to $1 million per coin. And after five straight weeks of outflows, the crypto funds just saw 1 billion back of inflows. I'll be breaking it down for you. We'll also discuss the latest the Samson mouse as gold is overheated while bitcoin is sitting at the bottom. So if liquidity is turning, this is where the repricing all begins. Also, Arthur Hayes just Blaze points out that the Fed could print money, pretty little money printer go brrr. Supporting the US conflict with Iran. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. All right fam, let's dive right in and discuss a one million dollar bitcoin price prediction. A headline here, Altcoin Daily's compelling case for one million over zero. And this initially came from the Giga chat himself, Michael Sailor. Timestamp February 20th. Uh, so a couple of weeks ago got 2.3 million views. He wrote if it's not going to zero, it's going to a million dollars per coin. Let me know if you agree or disagree with that. And Here's a quick 15 second video from Michael Saylor, the most recent one I can find. Real quick. If you were to make a prediction about where bitcoin is, call it 12 months from now. What do you think? You know, I don't really make predictions over 12 months. I think the Bitcoin is going to double the triple the performance of the S and P over the next four to eight years. And I think that's the only thing we need to know. That's all you need to know. Double, triple that of the S P. So stack the prelo biddy according to Michael Saylor. But let's dive a little deeper. So yeah, historical context and the market evolution. As you know, bitcoin all started via the Genesis block. Oh, this was early 2009. January 3rd. It had a first major financial crash in 2011 dropping 93 from the early peaks Mount Gox collapse of 2014. This temporarily paralyzed the ecosystem. Then Bitcoin persisted through the 2018 bear market. Now I remember joining Bitcoin back in 2017. It was roughly 1500 dollars a coin. 2016 was a major having and it accelerated massively. And before the end of the year it went from 1500 all the way to 20,000. It was a parabolic run up. And then we had the ultimate winter, which some of you may have been around to remember to 2018 and 2019. And then 2020 was the next having. And ironic enough, 2020 was when micro Strategy became the first publicly traded company to put the Bitcoin on the balance sheet, which attracted other corporate companies such as Tesla Block and several others. And as of today there's now over 200 corporate Bitcoin treasury plays. So here's Sailors parallel prediction and institutional validation. Executive Chairman Sailor of NOW Strategy articulated a similar binary outcome framework for Bitcoin. In a recent statement he said if Bitcoin does not go to zero, it will reach a million dollars per coin. And also we have the likes of people like Dan Pena who said Bitcoin's going to zero, claiming that Putin is behind it. But we all know that's nothing more than fud. Sailors investment thesis centers on Bitcoin's technological superiority or over traditional store value assets such as the precious metal gold. He frequently contrasts Bitcoin's digital scarcity with fiat currency inflation, gold's physical limitations and the real estate illiquidity. The institutional perspective always reinforces the probability argument by highlighting Bitcoin's unique value proposition within modern portfolios. The convergence of influential media analysis and corporate strategy suggests maturing consensus around the Bitcoin long term potential. Now here's the fundamental factor supporting the bullish outlook. Several concrete developments substantiate the optimistic $1 million probability assessment. First, Bitcoin's network security continues reaching unprecedented levels. Referring to the hash rate measuring the computational power securing the Bitcoin network which has increased over 500% over five years. This enhanced security makes successful attacks increasingly improbable and and very expensive. Second, we have the regulatory clarity which continues improving in the major markets. Clearer frameworks reduce uncertainty for the institutional participants while maintaining consumer protections. And third, technological advancements address previous limitations. For example, second layer lightning network facilitates faster, cheaper transactions for everyday use which is commonly used in places like Bitcoin country. Fourth, the macroeconomic conditions favor the assets with the limited supply. Global debt expansion and monetary policies that devalue the fiat currencies increase the demand for the inflation resistant alternatives. And finally, demographic trends show the younger generations preferringly choose digital assets over traditional instruments. And I think that's common sense. And something else I like to point out. Bitcoin has true scarcity. 21 million hard cap, finite supply gold has relative scarcity. They always will find 1 to 2% more and expand the overall gold market every single year because it's lucrative for them to do so. So Bitcoin true scarcity and it's the only money in human existence that they can't create more of or find more of such as a gold or you know, precious metals and things of that nature. Now quantitative models and projection methodolog, various quant approaches support this 1 million dollar price and just common sense from a 100000 price tag which we have achieved above and beyond with the 126 all time high. You run the math. We're only 10x away from 100k to a million. Bitcoin has 10x how many times over and over again? We're up hundreds of millions of percent since the inception of the genesis block. And that's just a fact. So anyone doubting Bitcoin, Bitcoin can't go to a million dollars. Clearly don't understand Bitcoin. I think we'd all agree. We also have the stock the flow model. While controversial, it has accurately predicted the Bitcoin general trajectory despite the ongoing volatility. This model suggests Bitcoin to reach six figure valuations within the current market cycles. Plan B suggesting 500,000 to 1 million in play this cycle. Additionally, we have the adoption curve analysis comparing the Bitcoin growth to other transformative tech. So if Bitcoin follows the Internet adoption patterns, its user base could expand tenfold, hitting a million dollars per coin.
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Easy peasy. Anything is possible. Now. The network value metrics offer another analytical framework. For example, if we compare Bitcoin's market cap to the global wealth, revealing substantial growth potential, for example, gold, I've heard insane estimates now of roughly 40 trillion. And real estate, let's not forget, is being demonetized by bitcoin in real time. We have real estate moguls such as Grant and Gary Cardone basically offloading their real estate for bitcoin over the precious metal because they understand bitcoin, they're going to get the market value. I played a video clip of Grant Cardone yesterday saying he knows people looking to offload large amounts of gold and they're only going to be able to get stuff, 70% of the market value because those who buy the goal need to flip it for a profit. Whereas with bitcoin, you can sell it anytime, any place, any day of the week, including on a holiday or when traditional markets are closed. And you can get exactly what people are willing to trade for it on any open exchange. So for me, it's really a no brainer. Bitcoin is heading to a million. Quoting the Gigachad again, if it's not going to zero, it's going to a million dollars. Now, what's the likelihood of bitcoin crashing out and actually going to a zero? I think it's very highly improbable. Bitcoin would ultimately need to get hacked through the quant of whatever the quantitative technology that they have, quant computing advanced, you know, technology which can hack and currently there's nothing remotely touching the bitcoin protocol. It's the most secure network in existence. So which ultimately means you can hack any other network, government system, database, banking institution, anything except bitcoin. And if they can't hack a bitcoin recovery, you know, wallet and hack your 24 word seed phrase, then it's not really a threat right now. But the way quant computing is advancing, it can be a serious threat the next five to 10 years. According to the experts. However, bitcoin developers are smart. We'll just move your bitcoin from whatever type of wallet it is right now to a quant resistant wallet which is even more advanced. So it's not really an issue like very low probability of bitcoin going to zero. Very high probability. A bitcoin hit in a million per coin. The question remains when will it happen? This cycle or did we miss the boat? Is the high already in in 2025? You guys got to let me know your thoughts. Or could it potentially happen at the time of the next having 2028 or that particular cycle? Let me know your thoughts. Next up, Samson Ma predicts Bitcoin surge amid overheated gold market this tweet he shared February 28th at 7:10pm Got 85,000 views. He wrote Bitcoin is 24 to 66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap or global money supply. While gold is overextended. That's right. When the bitcoin to gold ratio Z score drops below a negative two, it has always preceded major rallies. Can you say omega candle? Send it. Mean reversion is the most probable move next. And then he asked gro historically how much have we rallied in these conditions? And the AI responded historically, late 2022 the Z score was 1.8 negative to below 2. Post FTX, Bitcoin went up 150% in 12 months. Then we had early 2020 below negative 2. The COVID crash we soared 300%. And also late 2018, 2015 bottoms we were near below minus 2 leading to a 90 to 500% plus gain into the bull runs. So this is a fact. Every prior diploma negative 2 preceded major rallies via the mean reversion, often 150 to 300 within a year. So there you go. This could be a very bullish setup right here. And the big picture wrote this and Samson reposted it and this is worthy of a share. Samson Mouse says gold is a bubble, Bitcoin is at the bottom and the data is a screaming number one. A surge signal proven by history. Data doesn't lie. Current bitcoin gold ratio Z score slammed below negative 2 meaning Bitcoin is undervalued by a whopping 2466% relative to gold's market cap of the global money supply. And as I referenced in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022, every single time we hit this zone we exploded by 90,500% without exception. The statistical bottom is crystal clear. Started from the bottom. Now we hear number two analog rock versus digital apps as absolute asset. Gold's high price is just the result of the outdated relic forcibly absorbing the fiat collapse fears. Meanwhile the Bitcoin is the only asset with mathematical integrity. The digital gold trading cheaper than the heavy supply. Inflating analog gold is nothing but a temporary market spasm. The spring has been compressed to its limit. And number three, buying fear and selling euphoria is a science. The masses cut losing or losses crying it over. But this is the zone where the smart money drools and scoops it up. Mean reversion inevitable. The current price is nothing short of the market's last fire sale opportunity. Numbers remember, have no emotions. Enjoy this undervalued zone that others fear blind, can't see and quietly stack up your bags. So a great example why you should be stacking a sats right now. We've seen this situation play out numerous times and I think a great example was that March 2020 Novid example where Bitcoin bottomed out crash into 3, $700 which was a great BTFD opportunity. And then by November of 2021 we were hitting the all time high of 69, 000. Ironic. Five years later today we're at the exact price level of 69G's demand for precious metals as a safe haven has significantly impacted the real world asset sales sector. The market cap of tokenized gold categorized as ready exceeded 6 billion. That's tokenized gold by the way with a daily trading volume of one and a half billion dollars. Next bullish story of the day. Bitcoin price rebounds from the monthly channel bottom. Can 475,000 per bitcoin be next? I say send it and let's get it. Here's the breakdown. Tony Servino wrote if bitcoin opens on the CME below 60 this weekend it it will gap below the monthly uptrend channel. Well here's the good news. We did not dip at 60 or anywhere near. I think the bottom was 6,364 and we straight up started ripping here today when the markets open which is a good sign. His analysis was based on the ascending channel pattern on the Bitcoin price chart on the monthly time frame and ascending channels of pattern and TA marked by the two major upward sloping trend lines. The upper line connecting the swing highs and the lower line connecting the swing lows is outlined right here. Now the next target, the bounce back is the channel's midline which could be as high as 475,000. Now granted that's a far ways from the 60,000 range. Also keep in mind we've already tapped 126 was.
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It feels like AI can do everything. Write the code, analyze the data. It can even suggest your next move. But there's one thing I can't do. Think for your people. With AI, the real advantage isn't the tools. Anyone can do that. The real advantage is human readiness. That's why the smartest companies aren't asking do we have AI they're asking can our people keep up to build a learning program that keeps your people ahead. Learn with Docebo. Docebo Never stop learning which is the
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current firmament achieved in October which means we're 4x away from a 475 price action. So it's not that far fetched. While historical data and patterns are often good ways to predict future market movements, CENO acknowledged that the chance of the bitcoin price soaring is high as 475 is slim like shady. Meaning the market conditions would need to improve before we can entertain price action like that. But want to know what comes to my mind before we dive into the bullishness from Arthur Hayes? Just blaze is the fact that Bitcoin is going to continue to do what bitcoin does best. Stock to flow model is pointing towards 500,000 as the Bitcoin average for this cycle and as high as $1,000,000 per coin. Stock to flow is ultimately supply and demand when you have a limited supply of the most precious asset to ever exist, Bitcoin and you got an unprecedented demand coming from the likes of the institutions purchasing more than the block Reward is rewarding every day. We're going to come to a supply crisis. Eventually the weak hands will finish selling, exhaust the selling which we've been seeing in the metrics of the price action right now. And then the exchanges have very limited supplies and then you still got strategy sailor. Every week purchasing mass amounts of bitcoin when all the inflows of the institutions return which we'll touch upon a little later as well. That's also bullish sign the fidelities of the world, the black rocks etc again there's only so much bitcoin to go around. And then when you add in the nation state adoption, the global hash war, you know, countries like the United States having a strategic bitcoin reserve and acquiring bitcoin sovereign wealth funds in the Middle east, you know, Abu Dhabi and places like this, the pension funds, the 401ks, everything is slowly transitioning into bitcoin digital gold, including Wall street, the banking sector. Everyone wants your bitcoin right now. And, and those selling, I personally feel may, may many people are forced to because they're in a position where they did something not smart. Maybe they have a leverage play and maybe they have to sell to avoid liquidation or things of this nature. But the long term Hodlers are accumulating. And the reason for that, they understand bitcoin, right? There's a reason they huddle. And what we have uncovered in previous episodes is if anyone can hodl for two cycles, you're mathematically guaranteed to increase your purchasing power and be in the black. In fact, it's like 99% chance if you just hollow for three years, you're going to be at an unrealized gain versus an unrealized loss. Now what often happens with new people who are wet behind the ears don't really know about bitcoin and they're just speculating short term they'll buy it. For example, maybe they just bought at the top at 120,000. Bitcoin gets slammed in a very short period of time. Oh my God, it's going to go to zero. Let me sell before it's worth nothing. And then they sell out a loss. And then they turn their unrealized loss into a realized loss. Whereas the difference is diamond hand Bitcoin. Hodler could be down. You know, he could even buy at 120. We dropped the 20,000. In an extreme example, which did not happen, but extreme hypothetical, they're still not going to sell. And if they don't sell, they can't lose because they're not turning the unrealized loss into a realized loss. They just simply huddle. That's why the huddlers are the biggest winners. Huddle be thy name. The 11th Commandment in the Bible. You know, preaching the holy gospel Satosh here. But if you can just hoddle, the bitcoin price action will return its purchasing power against the dollar, mathematically guaranteed to increase over the long haul. And then you print your gains. If you even have the desire to convert the greatest appreciating asset in humankind for fiat, monopoly, Illuminati, dollars. You know, think of it that way. Why would you want to exchange a bitcoin for Fiat? The only reason if you got to pay some bills. And that's what I meant by the unwinding and people being forced to liquidate maybe due to circumstances, but the long term huddlers are going to continue to accumulate, you know, common sense. Right Next Story of the day Yo Fed Could Print Money to Support the U S Conflict with Iran Arthur Hayes Just Blaze Always very bullish on the btc. We got the U S Federal Reserve which could ease its hawkish monetary policy, help finance the country's conflict with Iran, which would boost the crypto markets, according to Arthur Hayes. Just Blaze. He said recently on Monday that every U s president since 1985 has launched military action in the Middle east and every time the Federal Reserve responded by cutting the rates and expanding the money supply to finance the conflict. This is where the money comes from. Quoting them here the longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian national building, the higher the likelihood that the Fed lowers the price, increasing the quantity of money to support pax, America's latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism. That's a nice way to put it. Hayes said that The Gulf War 1990, the global war on terrorism after the September 11 attack, inside job in 2001 and the so called surge in Afghanistan in 2009 all resulted in Fed rate cuts or monetary easing. So over the weekend, as we know, Israel and US initiated a series of airstrikes on Iran that killed the country's supreme leader, which Trump had pledged to continue. We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions if not trillions of dollars reshaping Iran's politics to his liking or how much geopolitical financial market pain he can politically tolerate before he cuts and runs. The prudent action is to wait and see. So the time to back up the truck and buy the bitcoin and high quality coins is immediately after the Fed rate cuts and or prints to support the government's goals in Iran, according to Arthur Hayes. Now Hayes has recently shared other theories on how the Fed may approach monetary policy. In the past three months, for example, he said the Fed would start quantitative easing due to the new liquidity tool called the Reserve Management purchases or to alleviate the Japanese bond crisis or because AI will take the jobs leading to a credit crisis. So after the Israel U. S strikes on Iran, crypto social media saw spike spike in mentions of World War iii, according to Santiment. However, the mentions remain much lower than in June of 2025 when the Israel launch strikes.
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For a long time, companies treated their learning programs like overhead. Nice to have, easy to cut. Not anymore. With tech, AI and skills evolving fast, learning isn't just about HR or mandatory compliance. Learning is a competitive advantage. It's how you keep up. Learning is how you enable sellers, onboard talent, educate customers and scale faster. It's how you act, adapt and evolve. And at Docebo, learning is what we do. So for learning that never stops, start with Docebo do never stop learning on
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Iran's nuclear and military sites, which escalated into a 12 day conflict. Also the Macro Newsletter the Kabisi letter says this is not a futures open that is anywhere near World War iii. Oil prices, meanwhile, have already erased nearly half of their opening gap, higher in the S P and is down less than 1%. Next story FAM Sailor Strategy buys 204 million of Bitcoin on its 101st purchase we knew this was coming because he did post the infamous Sailor Tracker yesterday. So Strategy, the world's largest public holder of bitcoin, completed its 101st bitcoin purchase totaling 720,000 bitcoin on the balance sheet. The company acquired 3:15 bitcoin for 204 million last week. According to the latest filing with the SEC. The average buy price of its latest purchase was 67, 700. So he's back in the green on the new purchase, making another purchase well below the company's average acquisition price of just shy of 76,000. The purchase brings its holdings to 720,737 Bitcoin acquire for a total cost of 54.8 billion. The latest buy is obviously a smaller number of Strategy purchases made below the company's average cost basis. According to the Sailor Trackers bitcoin acquisitions outlined here. The first purchase occurred February 9th when the company bought 1142 Bitcoin as the market price dipped below 76,000. The same week, Strategy reported an average acquisition price of the batch at 78,000 above the market price at the time. Strategy also encountered a similar situation 20222023 the bitty price dipped below the cost basis of 30,000. The company completed a total of seven purchases of 28,000 Bitcoin during the period below the cost. Strategy shares saw somewhat upwards momentum last week, rising from 1:25 to $130. Bitcoin, however, remained largely flat over the same period. We did get a nice pump from yesterday to today. We did tap 70,000 before the correction continued. This news Came after strategy chairman Sailor announced Sunday the company is raising the dividend on STRC stretch prefer stock to 11 and a half percent for March 2026 from 11 and a quarter percent. The capital raised through the stock can be used for corporate purchases, including potential bitcoin acquisitions. And there's the latest from Michael Saylor. Which one's the best crypto asset? Well, bitcoin is the best crypto asset. Okay, what's the second best? There is no second pass.
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I'm not saying I'm number one.
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I'm sorry I lied. I'm number one.
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Two, three, four and five.
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Here we go. Crypto funds rebound with a billion of inflows after a five week slumpy slump. And that explains the recent pumpy pump. That's right, the ETPs attracted a billion last week led by 882 million into Bitcoin funds, according to the latest data for coin shares. From a macro standpoint, as difficult to attribute the shift in sentiment to a single catalyst. James Butterfield said the reversal likely reflected the prior price weakness, a great buy, the dip opportunity, a break below the key technical levels and renewed accumulation by the large hodlers. At a more anecdotal level, recent client discussions have been almost entirely focused on identifying entry points rather than reducing exposure to the asset class. Meanwhile, ethereum funds drew 117 million marking their strongest week since January. And ether did recover above 2000, which it was suppressed below for quite some time. Chain link and XRP follow with 3.4 million and 2 million of flows respectively. So yeah, the spot Bitcoin ETS were led by Bitcoin was 787 million ETPs being at the exchange traded products. Also Canada, Germany and Switzerland recorded 34mil, 32 and 28 million. Most of the gains came from the U. S spot Bitcoin ETFs drawing 787 million ending the five week outflow. Thank God. Which resulted in 3.8 billion of outflows which is why we crashed so significantly, you know. Despite the renewed inflows, total assets under management of the crypto ETPs declined to 127 billion from 130 billion the previous week. So we're up 5% on the day for the market cap. It's 2.37 trillion for crypto Total bitcoin market cap on the incline as well, 1.38 trillion. Currently we're coming in at a 10. An extreme fear. Yesterday was a 14 and last week of 5 in extreme fear which is the low for the entire cycle and checking out the time chain calendar today we're on block height 93951 and you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1400 and 46 cents. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hodl.
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How do you measure learning success by courses completed or by real improvements to skill, productivity and revenue? See, learning isn't about passive consumption. Learning is about doing doceable makes it easy to create, manage and deliver learning to every audience across the entire skills journey. Your learners will adapt faster, get more done, and grow their skills, organization and careers. Docebo Never stop learning.