← Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC Macro Signal
Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC Macro Signal
Bitcoin $11M Scenario Builds as AI Deflation Accelerates
00:25:16
Loading summary
Transcript6 lines
- [00:00]
A
Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or or situations.
- [00:29]
B
Let's talk groceries. Specifically your groceries. With Instacart, you want your groceries just the way you like them, right? Well, the Instacart app lets you do just that. They have a new preference picker that lets you pick how ripe or unripe you want your bananas. Shoppers can see your preferences upfront, helping guide their choices. Instacart get groceries just how you like.
- [00:50]
A
Welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod in today's show. Strive strategist says AI deflation could push the Bitcoin price to 11 million per coin by 2036. We shall discuss if AI collapses all the global costs scarcity therefore explodes. I'll be breaking it down for you. Also big news, the largest public Bitcoin miner Mara holdings to consider selling all its Bitcoin reserves which consist of 53822 Bitcoin. Also update you on the Clarity act and the likelihood of this passing and when as well as the latest it was developing in the market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is Pod Episode 2269. I'm your host JV alongside the Fed Chair Nip Anator keeping them nip and naton. Today is March 3, 2026. Yesterday we had a nice run up. We tapped 70,000 before the correction and now we're climbing right back up at the time of the live. Let's kick it off with our feature story of the day. Check it out. Strive strategist says AI deflation could push the Bitcoin price to 11 million per coin by 2036. And as a bonus, I'm going to give you my predictions that I asked Chat GBT from the years 2028 to 2040. We have the conservative the base case as well as the hyper Bitcoinization bull case. So stay tuned here. So yeah, check it. Technological deflation driven by the AI could help push the price above 10 per coin within a decade by pressuring the central banks and keeping expanding on the money supply, according to a report from Strive strategist Joe Burnett. Burnett, stri's Vice president of Bitcoin strategy said in a recent report Monday that the faster productivity gains from AI will push down the prices across the goods and services, squeezing margins and prompting policymakers to respond with sustained monetary expansion. His base case calls for bitcoin a reach 11 million in the first quarter of 2036. And I say again base case. Take that Peter Schiff. So yeah, my base case for Q1 2036 is 11 million per BTC. The forecast rest on a set of aggressive assumptions including the Bitcoin would grow to about 12% of the value of the global financial assets and that the global wealth would compound at 7% annually through 2036. With Bitcoin currently accounting for just 0.2% of all financial assets. This would involve an over 176 fold increase. That's 176x at a Bitcoin market cap during the next decade to hit 230 trillion. That's right, at today's prices were like 1.3 trillion total Bitcoin market cap. So this shows us the potential we have here. Check it out. Bitcoin as a share of global financial assets today in 2026 it's only 2% of the total. Again we're roughly 1.3 trillion as of now. And then it shows you in the future 10 years out 2036. It also estimates where the global financial assets will be and then it also shows us 12% Bitcoin will have captured a total with a 230 trillion market cap, which means all other fin financial assets would be roughly 88%. The forecast implies Bitcoin becomes the dominant global reserve asset along structurally loose monetary policy over the next decade. Nick Puckin, co founder and lead market analyst of educational platform Coin Bureau, shared the following the forecast implies Bitcoin would become around 10 times as large as the current US M2 money supply and nearly 4 times as large as the US equity market today and nearly double the current global GDP. The prediction would also imply a compound annual growth rate of roughly 53% per annum, which is not unprecedented considering Bitcoin's average 60% CAGR between 2015 and 2024. But a slowdown may be expected due to its larger market cap now. AI deflation engine to lead the structural monetary expansion Burnett's thesis centers on what he described as the AI deflation engine, arguing that the aid driven automation and cost reductions could create persistent deflationary pressure and a debt based fiat. Sustained deflation can strain the credit markets because wages and asset prices may fall while debt obligations remain fixed in nominal terms, he wrote, potentially pushing the central banks and fiscal authorities to add liquidity to avoid a deflationary spiral, quoting them here under a debt based fiat framework, persistent deflation destabilizes credit markets because wages and asset prices decline while mortgages, corporate loans and sovereign debt remain fixed in nominal turns. So as AI drives the real economy deflation, the central banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent the deflationary spiral. And this chart shows you the M2 money supply versus the CPI, Bernett said this will lead to a persistent increase in money relative to the supply of scarce assets. And we know Bitcoin being perfect money, fixed finite limited supply, a 21 million cannot say the same for gold now the Emergence of Digital Credit Set to Bolster the Bitcoin Demand the report also references a point which Burnett calls the emergence of digital credit models promoted by companies including Strategy, the largest Bitcoin corporate holder. Also, digital credit provides US dollar income to investors through publicly traded securities backed by the larger Bitcoin balance sheets issued by the treasury firms as a means to raise capital to acquire more Bitcoin. This chart shows you the digital credit liquidity flywheel. Now Burnett foresees digital credit producing and creating a reflective loop between gold yield demand and Bitcoin accumulation, marking the early stage of the credit system built on verifiable scarce money. Now. Still, the 11 million dollar Bitcoin price forecast stands well above most bullish scenarios that use the short horizons. For example, we have Arc invest predicting a 2030 target of 1.5 million in the company's bull case and a 300,000 price target in the bear case. So I want to know your thoughts surrounding this 11 million dollar prediction per Bitcoin within the next 10 years. And like I mentioned, as a bonus, I asked Chat GBT last night to model the Bitcoin price scenarios for 2028-2040. I just stuck with having years, which we know the next having will be in 2028. We got one in 2032, one in 2036 and one in 2040. Here's what it generated across conservative base and hyper Bitcoinization cases. Let's start with the conservative case. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match Limited by state law not available in all states Ugh.
- [08:18]
B
I barely got any sleep Last night. What? Why? I spent hours fighting with AI. All because I was trying to make a website. It started out okay, but then I got stuck just trying to change one button. Okay, okay, relax. Just try WIX Harmony. What's that? It's wix's new website builder. Lets you switch back and forth between AI tools and hands on editing anytime. So I'm not just prompting and praying? Nope. Just try it for free at wix.com/harmony.
- [08:48]
A
Which means slow adoption, heavy regulation, and no major sovereign acceleration. They show 2028 between 250 and 400,000, 2032 between 600 and 900,000, 2036 between 1.2 million and 2 million. And by the year 2040, in the conservative case, between 3 and 5 million. This assumes Bitcoin grows more like digital goal 2.0, steady but not explosive. Now for the base case, which assumes ETFs expand globally, sovereigns quietly accumulate and corporate treasuries grow. Kind of like what we're witnessing right now. This is basically the pace. By 2028 we'll be between 500,000 and 800,000. And ironic enough stock to flow shows us between 500,000 and a million at this time frame as well. 2032, between 1.5 and 2.5 million. 2036 between between 3 and 6 million. And by the year 2040, between 8 and 15 million. Assuming Bitcoin becomes a recognized macro reserve asset by the mid-2030s. Now for the bullish hyper Bitcoinization case where multiple nation states adopt reserves, major currency crisis and capital flight event. By 2028, we're talking 800,000 to 1.5 million. By 2032, 3 to 5 million. And by 2036, 8 to 15 million. And. And this one. If this doesn't get you excited, I don't know what will. By 2040. In the hyper bitcoinization scenario, between 20 and 40 million per bitcoin. This scenario assumes rapid sovereign FOMO and global monetary instability, which is to be expected. So my question for you, which scenario do you think plays out? Let me know your thoughts and I'll entertain it in the comments. Next story of the day, Bitcoin's forming a bottom as the four year cycle ends. This according to the VanEck CEO. Let's break her down. The price of Bitcoin close to the bottom. Started from the bottom. Now we hear. Nah, bought it from the bottom. Now we hear. Yo. Speaking on CNBC Monday, Van X said his firm expects Bitcoin to gradually start picking up this year, arguing that the four year having cycle has been the primary driver of the price over the past few months as opposed to anything related to the bitcoin fundamentals. Quoting them here. Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by the limited supply of 21 million and the having cycle where the bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of the bitcoin every four years there's been an investing cycle, bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in the fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that's why we're in a bitcoin bear market. So I think we can over complicate it now. I think we are making a bottom and the million dollar question remains is the bottom in at a 59,009 we recently achieved? Yay or nay? Holler in that chat. The four year crypto cycle has been a hot topic of debate over the last year, with analysts split over whether a chart pattern is applicable today given the level of institutional adoption and crypto market maturity. And the big outlier or catalyst is the institutions. They didn't come to Bitcoin officially via the ETFs until January 11, 2024. So prior to that it was always driven the bull cycle by the retail. This more recent cycle we're in was actually driven by the institution. So a lot of people tend to believe that this time it's different. While others are sticking to the original 4 year cycle now. Ven X Comments come as the price of Biddy was up 2.6% on the day, trading at 68. 4. Practically where we are right now at the time of the live the crypto pump coincided with growing geopolitical tension after the US and Israel initiated airstrikes on Iran, which has since prompted Iran to launch strikes in response against Israel. Now Vaneck speculated that bitcoin recent recovery may be partly sparked by the conflict with crypto payment rails serving as a key tool to move funds outside of banks in times of economic uncertainty. Quoting them here, when one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you going to move money around? And I do think it's very very crypto friendly region. We're talking the uae, Dubai, everything. So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors we would want to use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through D what does that say? Decrypt Iranian banks that we don't control. And there you go yo breaking news as well. I might as well give you the breaking news now. Largest public bitcoin miner Mara holdings to consider selling its bitcoin reserves. What the fudge? Mera again, the second largest, a publicly held bitcoin holder updated its treasury policy just now to allow potential sales of a stockpile bitcoin. The company does whole 50, 53, 822 Bitcoin ranking just behind Sailor Strategy. That's insane in the membrane. Basically the second largest bitcoin holder can potentially offload all of their bitcoin and dump it onto the market. Would it be over the counter? Would it be spot? How do you think that would play out? And is that alarming to you that the largest minor would do that? Let me know your thoughts. Next story of the day. Yo Visa and Stripes Bridge Plan Stablecoin Card Expansion I want to talk to SAMSON in over 100 countries. Let's start right here in Puerto Rico. Global payment giant Visas expanding the stablecoin card partnership with Stripe Own Bridge expanding the roll out of the Stablecoin link Visa cards worldwide testing the onchain settlement Visa and Bridge are expanding their joint card program to 18 countries with plans to reach more than 100 all across Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa. This one's for Africa and the Middle east by the end of the year, according to the Taco Tuesday announcement. The expansion follows program's initial launch April 2025, which first supported the markets in Latin America, Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Chile. In addition to the expansion of the companies or test and stablecoin settlement through Visa's pilot program, enabling issuers and acquirers to settle transactions using stable coins rather than the fiat. The move highlights the ongoing stablecoin race in the payment industry, with mastercard recently enabling stablecoin card spending in the US via the self custodial crypto wallet Metamask, which I am not a fan of. Just FYI. When the card program launched in 2025, transactions were processed by Bridge, deducting the funds from the customer stablecoin balance and converting them into fiat, allowing merchants to receive payment and local currency like any other card transaction. But under the new collabo enabled by independent commercial bank LE bank, settlement is now set to occur directly in stablecoins as per their official announcement quoting them here now through the Bridge partnership with Lead bank, these card transactions can be settled on chain with the Visa. Visa is committed to meeting businesses where they operate. Increasingly, that's on chain, according to Visa's head of crypto. Expanding our work with Bridge gives us one more way to bring the Spade transparency and programmability of the stable coins directly into the settlement process. Additionally, Visa evaluating potential support for the Bridge issued assets or stablecoin created managing using Bridges infrastructure platform and unlike major stablecoins such as Tether, USDT or Circles USDC Bridge issued stables are created programmatically by businesses rather than third party issuers quoting them here. This expansion of our work with Visa will enable the businesses launching their own custom stable coins to use them seamlessly within their card programs. And there you go yo Next story of the day yo Senate House and Bill Amendment proposes to block the US CBDC until 2030 that leads me to believe a CD CBDC is coming after Trump's presidency cuz he promised that we would not adopt a CBDC but according to this bill until 2030 then it would be allowed. What the you know, let's dive into this. An amendment has been proposed to the Federal Reserve act to ban the U S Central bank from issuing a CBDC until 2030. What happens in four years? Bro the language appears to near the end of the 300 page 21 century road to the Housing act released by the Senate Housing and Urban affairs on Monday. Section 10 of the proposal legislation states that the Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve or the Federal Reserve bank may not issue a create central bank digital currency or any digital asset that is sustainably similar to a central bank digital currency stablecoin directly or indirectly through the financial institution or other intermediary. The bill also contains, and I ain't talking BJ bill here contains an exception for the stable coins stating that the Fed should not prohibit any dollar denominated currency that is open, permissionless and private and fully preserves the privacy protections of the physical currency. The proposed prohibition includes a sunset clause that expires Dec. 31, 2030, after which new legislation would need to maintain the ban. The White House issued a statement supporting the act opposing the cbdc which it said could pose significant threats to personal privacy and liberty. Let me reiterate that will pose significant threats, not could we it Most absolutely would. 100%. This version of the housing bill revives the language from the prior failed attempts to prevent the US CBDC and is not the original legislation. The no CBDC act, which is s.464, is a standalone bill introduced by Senator Mike Lee February 2025 which would prohibit the Federal treasury from issuing the CBDC installed in Congress for the legislation prohibiting the Fed from issuing a CBDTC was introduced June 2025 by Congressman Tom Emmer under the anti CBDC Act. Shout out to Tom Emmer for that. That's HR 1919. The bill passed a House vote that was July 17, but is yet to pass the full Senate approval. Now only three countries have officially deployed CBDCs at this point. We're talking Nigeria, Jamrock, better known as Jamaica and the Bahamas, place of the orgy manifestation of the Bankman Freed and Caroline Ellison with the grippy from Mississippi. Can't forget the Bahamas, you know. According to the Atlantic Council CBDC Tracker, a further 49 nations are actively testing the CBDCs, including China, Russia, India, Brazil, while 20 nations have CBDCs in development and 36 are still researching them. In February, Germany Central bank president touted the benefits of the CBDCs for the European Union, which is in the pilot phase. Well, let's keep it real. There is zero benefit for humanity. You know who it benefits? The lizard folks in control. The Federal Reserve and all their puppets. That just is what it is bro. CBDC Central bank digital currency the ultimate financial tool for them to control every financial aspect of your life. I just want a bull market now. Tired of the retracements of the corrections, you feel me? The banks and their CBDCs. But you guys asked about the Clarity act, here's the latest update. Mr. Hoskinson slams the Clarity act that's horrific bill and he's not the first one to call it a horrific bill. We also have the CEO of Coinbase, Mr. Armstrong said the same thing says very unfavorable. So let's break it down. Dismantling the bill. Mechanics, March 3 YouTube broadcast. Hoskinson, who is the founder of Cardano by the way, move beyond political rhetoric to present a detailed technical critique of HR 3633, which is the Digital Asset Market Clarity act of 2025. He argues that the bill is drafted creates a regulatory catch 22 that would be a wet dream. A wet dream for an ad adversarial sec. The core of the argument rests on the bill security by default framework for the newly created digital assets asserting under this structure every new project from XRP to Ether at their launches to any future protocol would be classified as an investment contract asset and fall under the jurisdiction of the sec. The path to graduating to a digital commodity regulated by the cftc, the developer warned, is a bureaucratic minefield. He outlines several attack vectors where the SEC could exploit the rulemaking authority to indefinitely trap projects that in security status, including impossible to prove standards for decentralized and sub subjective value attribution tests. This is not a good bill, he says. Through rulemaking, it can become horrific and weaponized, and it doesn't cover the core of what's going on in the industry now. I've never read the bill per se, but just understanding the folks in power, it makes 100% sense that it wouldn't be favorable for us because they want to try to control everything to the best of their abilities. He stressed that while established projects like Cardano and XRP might be grandfathered in, legislation would force all future American crypto innovation to launch overseas, effectively killing the domestic industry, now an industry in Washington, at an impasse. While the Clarity act passed the House last year, it did stall in the Senate. The White house issued a March 1 deadline, which was two days ago, for stakeholders to bridge their differences, but the date passed with no public compromise reported. The primary holdup, according to Hoskinson, is not the structural issues which were raised, but a fierce lobbying battle over the stablecoin rewards ultimately the yields on stable coins, which the banking industry warn could trigger massive exodus of deposits. So they're in their pants, the banking industry. They don't want yields on stable coins because they believe it will destroy their fractional reserve banking system naturally. Why wouldn't you put your money in a stable coin, hypothetically earn 5% yield, whereas the bank is paying you effectively zero and you're losing due to inflation. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations. Some to consider. The divide has splintered in a way for the crypto industry with Brad Garlinghouse of CEO of Ripple said he predicted a 90 chance the bill becoming a law by April, which is right around the corner, continuing to champion it, arguing the Clarity beats chaos and that the industry cannot let perfection be the enemy of progress. David Schwarz, the CTO of Ripple, also weighed on X, acknowledging the tight rope walk, stating that while his company tries not to advocate to the detriment of others, a suboptimal bill is better than no bill at all. Now, I don't know your thoughts personally. From my understanding it sounds better to have no bill if it's not going to be favorable towards us. And if these folks, which I'm not even big fans of, especially Hoskinson and Armstrong, say it's detrimental, you know, for crypto I tend to believe that, you know, I don't trust the banks whatsoever and I sure as don't trust Epstein's clients and control the U. S government. All right fam, now for our next story. Spot Bitcoin etfc458 million of inflows as the mideast conflict widens. And that's reflective of the bitcoin price having a nice run up the yesterday which was Monday. We did tap 70,000 before falling back down and correcting us. Spot bitcoin funds open the week with strong inflows and this is important because we had five consecutive weeks of outflows so we finally get some good positive momentum in the market. Bitcoin ETFs recorded almost a half a billion of inflows Monday, extending last week 787 million of net inflows. The latest gains pushed the cumulative NET inflow to 55.3 billion. Trading volume climbed to about 5.8 billion which is the highest level since early February, the greatest month of the year hands down. The inflows came as Bitcoin rose 3% on Monday. We had a nice gain yo. We jumped from like 63, 64 all the way to 70. And many experts were anticipating a massive crash due to the conflict obviously with the war going on. Meanwhile black rock continues to lead the inflows as altcoin funds add to the gains. Altcoin ETF shared positive momentum, some though smaller scale from ether, Salana and XRP. And amongst Bitcoin funds, Black Rock's EY bit led with 264 million of inflows which it usually does lead. Fidelity's wise origin fund followed with 95 million and the Bitwise Bitcoin et added 36 milli. Meanwhile Samson Ma I want to talk to Samson. Longtime bitty advocate took the x on Monday. No bitcoin held steady with the monks. We getty through the weekend despite rising uncertainty over the strikes on Iran and Saturday. Quoting Samson here, not sure who else noticed but on the weekend the war raged and uncertainty surge. Bitcoin held up incredibly well. There was downward pressure but we just bounce, bounce back each time. It definitely feels different than the previous months and I think he makes a great point on that. Now quick little market watch. As you can see on your screen at the time of the live we got bitcoin trading down a half a percent on the day maintaining at roughly 68, 300 at the time most of the market all corrective at this current moment. The bitcoin market cap here. Total let's get A refresh is down 1.5 of the day. Yesterday was in the green. Now we're back in a red Bitcoin market cap in particular is only 1.3 trillion right now. Earlier I gave you an 11 million dollar prediction which would mean Bitcoin's market cap surpassing 200 trillion. Baby baby. And checking out the Crypto Green and fair index today it's a 14 extreme fear. Yesterday at 10, last week at 8, last month at 14 and checking out the infamous time chain calendar today is block height 939182 and you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1466 SATS. So you know precisely what to do. You pick up the sats. Also pick up some gats for your own protection and pick up some bitcoin caps from a man Sergio or red bitcoin caps, net and all. Hell, the Fed chair Nipinator. That's the indicator we've been awaiting on. And welcome everyone to the Q and A segment of the live stream. And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.
- [27:29]
C
Marketing is hard, but I'll tell you a little secret. It doesn't have to be. Let me point something out. You're listening to a podcast right now and it's great. You love the host. You seek it out and download it. You listen to it while driving, working out, cooking, even going to the bathroom. Podcasts are a pretty close companion. And this is a podcast ad. Did I get your attention? You can reach great listeners like yourself with podcast advertising from Libsyn Ads. Choose from hundreds of top podcasts offering host endorsements or run a pre produced ad like this one across thousands of shows. To reach your target audience in their favorite podcasts with Libsyn ads, go to Libsynads.com that's L I B S Y N ads.com today.