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2277: $1M Bitcoin Is Inevitable - Bitwise CIO Explains Why
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Whether you're into unsolved mysteries, solved mysteries, or creating your own mysteries, Amazon Music's got millions of podcast episodes waiting. Just download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite podcasts. Ad free included with Prime. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. The these are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. Welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod In today's show, we shall discuss the path to $1 million. Bitcoin may already be locked in and today we break down why the bit y CIO believes in. It's inevitable. We'll also be discussing the latest from Plan B, creator of the Bitcoin stock to flow model, hinting at 500,000 per coin this cycle on average. Also the latest updates from Arthur Hayes. Just Blaze says he's waiting to buy Bitcoin until the Fed eases the policy. Also, tokenized assets climb to 23.6 billion as investors seek always on markets. Also breaking news, Binance sues the Wall Street Journal amid a report of the DOJ Iran probe. That's right. Also, Bitcoin facing high volatile setup as the bulls I have returned to ADGS by the end of the month. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is Pot episode 2277. I'm your host JV alongside the Fed Chair Nipinator K keeping them nip and Naton. And today is March 11, 2026. Bitcoin sitting right on the cusp of 71 GS and doing its thing. 80,000 in play. What more can I say? But let's dive right into our feature story of the day. Bitcoin will need 17% of store value market to hit the 1 million dollar milestone according to the Bitwise CIO Matt Hugan. And you'll see there was another headline here. Bitcoin's Million Dooll Dream. Bitwise lays out the path per coin. Let's break this baby down. This is speaking my language. Anytime it's a million dollars or more, you got my attention, so hopefully I got yours. Bitcoin needs to make up just 1/6 of the global store value market currently dominated by the gold to reach 1 million per coin, argues the Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hoogan. So the gold market cap right now is roughly 36 trillion. I think it surpassed even 40 trillion when it hit the all time high more recently of like 5,700 an ounce. But it did have a small correction since then, you know, In a blog post Tuesday, he said the most that dismissed the lofty forecast for Bitcoin is due to require bitcoin to muscle into 50% of the gold's current market value. However, Hogan said the mistake most people are making is ignoring the growth of gold and the broader store market value. Gold's market cap has grown roughly 50%, 13% annually since 2004 from only two and a half trillion to now 38 trillion. Ballpark driven by the rise in concerns about the government debt and the money printer. Go Burr. Of course it's the perfect hedge. You know, geopolitical uncertainty, easy monetary policy and other factors. Reminds me of that metaphor from Sailor. Those who, you know, treat fiat as a store of value. What do we call them folks? Well, we call them poor. Poor port before, but quoting Hoogan here, if this growth rate continues, the global store value market will be around 121 trillion in 10 years. And at this level, Bitcoin only needs to take 17 of that market to be worth a million per coin. Now I'm a firm believer gold is the poor man's bitcoin. That's my one of my favorite quotes from Max Kaiser. I personally feel bitcoin will overtake the gold market cap. Let's just keep it conservative. If we only took 17, we're talking a million per coin. And right here you can the gold market cap going parabolic, you know, I mean especially as of late, just going straight to the sky. Hogan cited the growth of the institutional investment such as the etf, sovereign wealth funds and increasing portfolio allocations as potential catalysts. Also, let's not forget the supply shock from corporations such as Strategy, which is currently purchasing five times the daily issuance of Bitcoin. That's right, there's 450 Bitcoin mined per day. Sailor's company alone is acquiring over 500% that daily issuance. And that's one company. Talk about supply shock, right? But back to Hogan. He says there's still miles to go, but with these undercurrents, capturing 16 of the store value market in 10 years doesn't seem extreme. I dare say it's conservative. He says as I see it, the base case that the store value market will continue to grow as it has and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has. Facts leads you to much much higher prices than we have today. That's right, a simple supply demand stock to FL low limited supply unprecedented demand is going up forever. Laura a wise man once said Hogan's million dollar bitcoin thesis depends on the asset continuing to converge with gold. However, the last several months have shown Bitcoin hasn't been moving in lockstep with gold. The price of gold hit the all time high. I've heard other numbers of around 5,700 according to this source. It says 5327 in late January. Just 2% away from that today where Bitcoin's currently down 44% fair play from the October peak. We did hit 126 October 6th had a government shutdown bear market kicked in. We had an October, November, December, January, February bear and here we are in March. Hopefully we can recover soon. Billionaire investor Mr. Dalio caution against bitcoin as a long term store of value and safe haven asset in early March stating that gold was much better. I mean these boomers, what are we going to do with them? He argued that central banks are are not buying bitcoin which he said behaves more like a tech stock. Also we have Greg C. Global head of the research of NYDIG said March 6 it appears Bitcoin is not currently being priced as a macro hedge, a sovereign risk hedge or real estate or inflation trade. Exactly. Which means we got that much more upside. That dynamic helps explain the ongoing frustration around the bitcoin failure to act like gold despite the digital gold label. Well, here's the deal. Bitcoin doesn't need to act like gold. It's superior to gold. And again gold is just the poor man's bitcoin. Hence why one bitcoin today is close to, you know, 71,000 ounce of gold. 5200. Yeah, I mean but anyways, let me know your thoughts surrounding this very bullish price prediction. And do you also agree that the $1 million price tag for bitcoin is inevitable? And what does your timeline look like? Let me know in that chat. Let's continue with the bullishness. Bitcoin's valuation model hints at a $500,000 bitcoin cycle average according to Plan B himself creator of the bitcoin the flow model. Also a recent post, he shared Bitcoin at 67 and FYI, right now we're closer to 71. But when he made this post the other day we're 67 stock to flow model screams 500 G's average this cycle. That's between 2024 and 2028 and we're in the middle right now. Is Bitcoin massively undervalued and the ultimate buy opportunity? Or is the stock the flow broken forever? Laura Whether you're solving murders during breakfast, cracking cold cases on your commute, or playing amateur detective at bedtime, Amazon Music's got millions of podcast episodes waiting. Just download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite True Crime podcasts ad free included with Prime. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance Fiscally responsible Financial Geniuses, Monetary Magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. What's your take? Bull or bust. And of course there's always fascinating comments and such. But let's dive a little deeper into the model Plan B. The analyst behind the stock that flows to the bitcoin price you know will average roughly a half a million per coin this cycle between 20242028 with a stretch between 250 GS and 1 million. Obviously a half a million per coin is right in the middle. The model is built on a simple premise. As bitcoin supply grows more slowly thanks to having events that cut the mining rewards, roughly every four years the demand holds steady or rises, then the price should follow. And right now there's roughly 450 bitties being mined per day. Reports indicate the Plan B is careful to frame the figure as a cycle average, not a ceiling or a guaranteed peak. That's right. Again, he's saying between 250,000 and 1 million. So his ceiling is around 1 million and the average is a half a million per coin. And as we know, bitcoin haven't reduced the number of new coins entering circulation. They get chopped in half. Right now there's 3.125 bitcoin being awarded on average of every 10 minutes per block. Hence the issuance of 450 bitties per day. I already broke this down as per the stock to flow chart, but not everyone agrees. You know, with this estimate of roughly a half a million per coin, for example, we got a guy named Bobby. He says stock to flow works as a rough long term guide, but falls short when used to pin down specific price targets in complex markets he argues the model captures the bitcoin broad growth story without accounting for many variables that move the price in real time. Here's what he says. My take is somewhere in the middle. In my opinion, Bitcoin currently undervalued and will likely trade to towards the 200 to 250 range. So he's a believer towards the lower side of the range of the cycle maturing through 2026, 2027. Here's the upside of that. Hey, that's a hell of a pump from where we're currently at, is it not? And It's a rate 2026. So I say send it. That said, he says, I don't subscribe to the idea of bitcoin reaching a half a million by 2028. You know now personally I know from experience having years when we typically always hit the all time high. In fact, for the first time in the having cycle we hit the all time high before the having. That was in 2024. The next having is going to be in 2028. I'm anticipating like clockwork a new all time high by then. Whether it's 222,000, 500,000 or 1.1 million, completely irrelevant. The point is long haul bitty always goes up as the demand increases and the supply decreases. And when you got companies like strategy purchasing five times the daily issuance numbers go up forever. Laura. But anyways, the skepticism is not without basis stock. The flow drew sharp criticism after bitcoin failed to sustain the price level the model projected during the 2020, 2024 cycle. That's due to the outlier though in all fairness we had something called novid, you know, government shut down all the. And as a result of the Black swan event we saw an unprecedented dip to like 16 GS in 2022 in the winter after peaking out at the all time high of 69,000. Previous cycle high which was back in November of 2021. If you know, you know, if you don't know, get with the program, you know, I mean. But nonetheless, let me know your thoughts on a $500,000 case on average. Like I said, we're in the midst of that price action right now. So bitcoin has a lot of catching up to do just like Lucy has a lot of explaining to do according to Ricky Ricardo. Whereas Terence Howard, I refer to Ricky Ricardo just saying. Next story of the day, Bruh, Arthur Hayes says he's awaiting to buy the bitcoin until the Fed eases the policy. He's awaiting down with Satan and Epstein's clients. Bitmex founder Arthur Hayes projects bitcoin to hit a quarter million this year. Send it. Says he'd rather wait and see than invest in bitcoin at the moment. Holding off. Let's not pretend he doesn't already have a billion dollars worth of bitcoin. You know, kind of hilarious, but he's holding off apparently until the U. S. Federal reserve loosens the monetary policy. Quoting him here. If I had a dollar to invest right now, would I be putting it into bitcoin? No, I would wait. Yeah, if I only had a dollar to my name, I'd go buy some ramen before I die of hunger. So I feel him. The longer the conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print the money to support the American war machine. Exactly. Hay says he'll start buying when the Fed begins easing the monetary policy. Quoting him here. That's when I'm going to buy the bitcoin, when the central banks start printing the money. Hay says that while some argue war is good for bitcoin, the more accurate view is that money printing is good for bitcoin. Nailed it. Hayes added that he's unsure whether bitcoin has reached the price bottom. I love the fact he's honest because if anyone tells you at 100% certainty the bottom is in, run the other way. That's a Jimbo Kramer move. No one knows the future. That's right, because we don't know the future. Unless you're Baron Trump and you're a time traveler. Bitcoin currently trading at around 71,000, down 45% from the all time high of the 126. Hayes warned that the ongoing geopolitical tension could push the price lower. That's right. That creates a lot of chaos and uncertainty at times of war. You already know. Hayes explained that this may lead to bitcoin to fall to 60 GS and that could sort of be a big cascading or cascade of liquidations down. As you know, we already bottomed out, currently at 59.9. We can round up, say it was 60 GS. Some say the bottom is in, others say not sure. And I agree with Arthur Hayes. There's no telling anything could happen. We could just as easily drop back down to 60 and crack or fill in the CME gap in the, you know, lower 80 range and we'll see what happens. You know, be prepared for all scenarios. Hayes usually shares strong convictions about bitcoin and maintains 250 by the year end, and he's maintained this prediction since October of last year. Other analysts are more confident about what will happen in the short term, and I tend not to listen to these analysts because you can't be confident in what's going to happen in the short term because of the volatility. How the can we be so confident? You know what I mean? It's almost like they have ulterior motives or something. But he says there are not many arguments left for uncertainty, and in that principle, I do think we'll see more upside in bitcoin and alts during the coming period. Meanwhile, Hayes says he doesn't anticipate there being many more years when bitcoin will be sub 100 GS and that should be the takeaway right here from the article. How much longer? How many more years will Bitcoin be sub 100,000? Is this the last hurrah? Is this your final call for alcohol? Let me know. But anyways, okay, next Story of the Day Tokenized assets climbed to 23.6 billion as investors seek always on markets. That's right, the value of the real world assets on the public blockchains climbed 66 this year, reaching 23.6 billion as of today. According to the D5 llama. The market stands stood at around 14 billion January 1, so you can see how fast it's accelerating before steadily rising through early March. Tokenized funds include products backed by the U.S. treasury. Bills, bonds and money market funds account for the largest share of the sector. D5 Llama shows tokenized funds represent 44 and a half percent of the total market with 10 and a half billion in value, followed by tokenized gold and commodities at roughly 6 and a half billion and tokenized equities of 4 billion. Other segments, including private credit and yield generating products make up smaller portions of the on chain RWA ecosystem. Industry participants said the next stage of growth is being driven less by tokenization as a concept and more by distribution, market access and the appeal of assets that can trade and settle around the clock. Tick tock. Next block Biddy never get for Everyone who solves crime from their couch, knows more about forensics than their own job and has trust issues with small town sheriffs. Amazon Music's millions of podcast episodes are calling. Just download the Amazon Music app and start listening to your favorite true crime podcasts ad free included with Prime. Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, Monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. Shut down. We just continue 24. 7 the real breakthrough here is that a handful of products have become significantly easier to access, distribute and use. On Tuesday, tokenized stocks surpass 1 billion in onchain total value according to data from RWA platform forms such as Ondo X stocks accounting for much of that activity. The tokenized U S Treasury market also just surpassed 10 billion in market cap February before jumping to 11 billion and that's the number of the day 11. Now investors are tired of the markets that close. Of course. I mean it's boring. What year are we living in the 1800s? Why do markets even close? They should just always be open. Let the people trade. Free market you. I mean. All right, next up bro Bance sues Wall Street Journal amid a report of the DOJ Iran probe. And I did see news earlier. Apparently the DOJ was claiming that Binance is supporting terrorists in Iran. You know I'm very skeptical of anything that comes from the doj. That's why I re I renamed them the Doc Department of Corruption since they're all covering up for Epstein and his clients. You know, I mean. But anyways update March 11th okay, here's the deal. Binance said Wednesday it's suing the Wall Street Journal after the newspaper reported the U S Department of justice was investigating whether Iran used crypto exchange to evade U S sanctions. Binance filed a defamation lawsuit against the Journal in the Southern District in New York, seeking damages and legal fees and demanding a jury trial. Binance shared it was not aware of any Justice Department investigation. They shouldn't they not be investigating the perpetrators? You know, sacrificing all the children to Moloch and Ball, what's going on here? But anyways continue to cooperate with regulators and law enforcement. As always, we're collaborating with the regulators and law enforcement to investigate the facts and that's exactly what the DOJ should be doing. But you know Epstein's clients versus cz, that's my two satoshis. But anyways the suit came shortly after the Journal reported Wednesday the DOJ was investigating whether Iran used Binance to evade U S sanctions, whether transactions on the exchange help route funds to networks linked to the Iran back groups, including Yemen's something militants. The report cited company docs and people familiar with the matter. The DOJ has not confirmed an investigation into Iran's alleged use of Binance to avoid the US Sanctions at the time of publication. Well, of course they don't really do much, do they? The Journal said it remains unclear whether the DOJ is investigating Binance itself, its users, or both. Officials have also reported contacting people with knowledge of the transaction to seek interviews to gather evidence. The probe follows the Journal's earlier report Feb. 23 claiming Binance dismantled an internal investigation into roughly a billion that flowed through the platform to a network tied to Iranian proxy groups. Binance categorically denied the claims that it dismantled any compliance investigation. And CZ and Binance would have to be to do anything that their legend they did. So I'm highly skeptical about these claims. From the Wall Street Journal, Eleanor Tourette wrote, just as Wall Street Journal reports, the DOJ has begun investigating Iran's use of the Binance to evade sanctions. Binance filed a defamation lawsuit against the publication in the Southern District of New York. That shows me they're more than likely innocent. Hence why they're taking it to court and requesting a jury trial. You know, I mean, Binance is seeking damages and legal fees, demanding a jury trial. Good for them. You know, CZ has already been shaken down $4 billion by the Department of Justice. He must feel a certain type of way right now. The Exchange also published a blog on Tuesday following up on the statement, which it details the fund flows and addresses what Binance describes as false claims made against it. So maybe, you know, the DOJ is doing the good old switcheroo, you know, don't look here what we're covering up for. Epstein and his clients point the finger at cz. Look their money laundering to Iran. Investigate all of our resources. Stop investigating Epstein and the clients and the missing children let in Zorro Ranch. Let's focus all of our attention on CZ next story of the day. Broskis Bitcoin faces highly volatile setup as the bull's eye have returned to the 80,000 mark by the end of the month. So will the bulls resume this month of March after a very lackluster October, November, December, January, Febr. You tell me but let's break her down here. You were looking at a one hour chart. We're trading at roughly 71,000 at the time of the live. After failing to break out of the local trading range, Bitcoin looked increasingly devoid of bullish cues. As traders stay wary of the price breakdown. Not much has changed. Price still consolidating inside the range this weekly candle closed bearish and overall the structure still lean sideways unless we get a clear break out or break down to the breakdown trader by the name of Killa flagged areas of high potential liquidations the next short term targets quoting them here. If we start pushing down towards the monthly open and weekly open around 66:9, there's a strong likelihood that the 64:000 liquidity pool gets swept. And if we start to push to 7273 which we're right near, the next poi is 74 to 76. My response. Thanks Captain Obvious. Now also another analyst, Mark Cullen said there was reason a hope for a higher move with the bull cement and 70,000 and support quoting him here 70,000 is critical. Bitcoin needs to get back above and hold for another attempt for the range to break out. If it can do that for the high 70s, low 80s, it'll be on the cards before the end of the month. Well, there you go. Also another analyst points out here, in the coming weeks bitcoin may face highly volatile environment. As open interest continues to rise, leverage in the market also builds up. This can open a door to the stronger price swing, sudden directional moves and another round of the get down for the force liquidations. And let's also take a quick look at the overall crypto market cap. As you can see here, total crypto market cap today is 2.4 trillion. Bitcoin specific 1.4 trillion. Checking out the crypto greed and fear index Today we're rated a 15. Extreme fear, my dear. And checking out the infamous time chain calendar. We did hit a big milestone the other day. There's less than 1 million Bitcoin to be mined, meaning there's now 20 million Bitcoin in circulation. And today we're at block height 940,292. And you can exchange one monopoly dollar for 1412 sats. So you know precisely what to do. Pick up the SATs, pick up a couple of gats, and pick up a couple of bitcoin caps from a man, Sergio over at Bitcoin Caps. Net. And FYI, this is the number one bitcoin podcast with the most episodes in existence. I verified that there's no other pod bitcoin podcast on the planet that has over 2,000 episodes and today is episode 2,277. I'm not the longest running podcast though. It's been, you know, eight years or whatever. There are some that started before me, but the most I could even find from others was like what bitcoin did. Podcast has like 600 episodes I think I maybe found another one with like 800 episodes, but no one's 2000 episodes date and no one else in their right mind is doing a show every single day, seven days a week, 365 days out of the year. Yeah, I mean, so if you don't know, now you know, bro. A lot of the speculation of a further drop. I really hope not toward the dump bought the six is looking green at the moment. I bought a friend in another country a gift. I said go get this 70 invoice, they said. I sent sats immediately. Received via lightning. They walked away with a gift. That's awesome. I thought Terence was a genius until he said push the button off. Wow. That's a cool. I know, right? Well done jv. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Thank you very much. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle. Safeway and Albertsons have made saving easier than ever with great savings on family favorites this week at Safeway and Albertsons. 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