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2278: Strategy's Race to 1 Million Bitcoin - Corporate Supply Shock
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That's the sound of a big deal at Wayfair. That sound happens a lot. Dream sofa for half the price. Big deal. New dining table you've been eyeing for months. Big deal. Finally picking up those last few pieces and finishing that bedroom. Now that's a really big deal. Whatever your home needs, Wayfair has the selection, the savings and over millions of five star reviews to back it up. Shop Wayfair.com today before someone else snags your big deal. Wayfair. Every style, every home. Welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one daily bitcoin pod. In today's show we shall decipher who's going to achieve 1 million Bitcoin first. Will it be strategy? Will it be BlackRock? Or will it be a 1 million dollar Bitcoin price action? I'll be breaking it down for you along with a supply shock scenario. Especially considering companies like Strategy are acquiring five times the daily issuance of bitcoin being mined. Right now we'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. Also big news at a meta planet forming a new venture firm as it expands its bitcoin playbook. Also now ARC Invest sees OneThird of the bitcoin supply at risk of a quantum threat. Also JP Morgan sued over alleged role in 328 million dollar crypto Ponzi scheme. Some things never change. Also U S prosecutors urge the judge to deny Bankman Freed a retrial. Please no pardon in Bankman Freed. We don't need a retrial. Just saying. We shall also discuss bitcoin. Catching up to gold hints at an opportunity within the risk. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is POT episode 2278. I'm your host JV alongside the Fed chair Nipinator caping them nip in today's show. We do got a lot to share but let's start right diving into our feature story of the day. STRC may help strategy reach 1 million bitcoin milestone before Black Rock. So the race is on right now and strc if you've been following, they've been purchasing unprecedented amounts of bitcoin before the market even opened today they already purchased basically the daily issuance. They're now averaging over 2000 bitcoin being acquired per day. And keep in mind there's only 450 Bitcoin being rewarded to the miners per day. So they're single handedly purchasing over 500% the daily issuance which is mindblowing. As Adam Livingston points out, Red alert strategy by buying almost the entire daily mine supply of Bitcoin before the market even opens. And Samson Mao proposes the real question. Does strategy accumulate 1 million Bitcoin first or does bitcoin go to a million first? This is the only question that matters. And then he goes on to say they'll go for 2 million bitcoin. That's right, because Sailor got the infamous, you know, Bitcoin alchemist glitch where he can raise unlimited amounts of capital and and then purchase virtually unlimited amounts of bitcoin to a certain degree. But here we are. Let's break this down. Yo Sailor. Strategy may reach a million Bitcoin milestone faster than expected. Potentially overtaken the Black Rock total holdings. I think say I'm going with Sailor over Larry Finster of Black Rock. Personally let me know your thoughts. You can see here the Bitcoin holdings over time Strategies. Bitcoin holdings just going at unprecedented levels. They're continuing to grow. They now hold 738731 Bitcoin including 18,000 Bitcoin purchase announced on Monday. Meanwhile BlackRock Zybit, their ETF has 775 000. So they're like neck and neck right now. Roughly 36000 more Bitcoin than strategy. So all it will take is one more acquisition which is probably occurring this week and will be announced on Monday. But a relatively new instrument, Strategies strc, better known as Stretch prefer stock is helping to close that gap faster. And this is what's been fascinating to watch. They're paying 11 and a half percent annual dividend distributed monthly in cash. And Samson Ma proposed the question, what if those investors exit the yen carry trade and enter strc? What would that do to the bitcoin price? Obviously it would go parabolic, you know, along with Sailors Bitcoin holdings, the dividend rate adjusts every month to encourage the stock to trade near $100 per value, which helps limit the volatility. Strategy uses the proceeds from the shares from the sales to buy more Bitcoin. Just this week Strategy is estimated to have already purchased over 3500 Bitcoin after selling roughly 6 million Str C shares for the Atom Market Program according to strc live. And this is actually Live metrics which update in real time where you can track their, you know, accumulation. And amongst the top STRC buyers is Bitcoin investment firm Strive. That's right. Chief Risk officer Jeff Walton said Wednesday they acquired 50 million in STRC, noting that the allocation would generate 5.75 million in annual income at STRC's current yield. So other, you know, bitcoin companies are, you know, hedging by actually purchasing Sailor's new product for the yield STRC as outlined right here. Now this is a higher than roughly 1.85 million from the 13 we t bills, a difference of 3.9 million per year. And on Tuesday STRC logged a record 409 million daily volume and 138 million 30 day average. You can see the stats here from the STRC dashboard. Using the 138 million average daily trading volume at a Bitcoin price of 71G's STRC could theoretically buy roughly 1940 Bitcoin per trading day. That's roughly five times the daily issuance. Let that sink in really quick again. 450 Bitcoin mine per day, every block is roughly 10 minutes and 3.125 Bitcoin gets rewarded and Sailor Light give me all that bitcoin times five and they're just getting started yo. So on days when STRC trading approaches its 409 million record, the implied buying power rises to 5,700 Bitcoin. That's 13 times the daily mining supply. Are you starting to understand what's happening yet or shall I go further? At this rate Strategies bitcoin holdings can surpass 1 million bitcoin by August very easily and likely leaving Black Rock and as well in the dust. MSTR may tap 145 trillion dollar fixed income market. Check this. STRC will soon start competing with traditional fixed income markets. According to Adam Livingston, analyst, Global fixed income markets outstanding reach 145 trillion in 2024. And just for some understanding how large crypto market is right now it's like 2.4 trillion. Bitcoin market cap's 1.4 trillion. But Bitcoin's about to tap into $145 trillion market thanks to quoting them here. If products like STRC eventually attract even 0.1% of the global fixed income outstanding, that's 145 billion at 71, 000 per bitcoin. That amount of capital will be enough to buy roughly 2 million bitcoin purely as a scale illustration. And that's based off point 1% of the global fixed income outstanding. You know, obviously it could be more advantageous than that and blow these numbers out of the water. So Ken sailor realistically acquire 1.3 million easy if you understand what's happening here. And in the disclaimer strategy warn STRC can't guarantee returns. That's correct. Noting that it is neither a bank deposit nor FDIC insured or regulated in the same way. Additionally, it does not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts. Money market funds. Treasuries is basically not backed by the fdic. But who gives a about the FDIC nowadays if there is a bank run, do you think the FDIC is going to have the funds to return everyone's money? I think not. Serra Terradores Conos autos pasando atoda velocidad. Un recordatorios de odat. It's go time. And at AAA we're here for it. Here for front row seats and backyard barbecues. All in for the spontaneous road trip and the well planned vacation. For worry free commutes, awesome adventures and great escapes. From camping under the stars to four star hotels here where you need us most with the best roadside assistance like we have been for more than 120 years. Wherever your journey takes you, we're here to power it. Join us@aaa.com AAA here for you, you know. But anyway, Strategy analysts Colon talks also warn STRC can cut the dividend. Its share price can fall below 100 per value. So again, there's no guarantee with investments, but that's on every investment. That's legit. And strategy can issue more shares to dilute the existing holders as he points out. Here I'll read you this tweet from Colon. Colin, I've been seeing a lot of euphoric bull posting about strc. It's an product but I think the black sheep and state I personally feel is too risky an investment. STRC doesn't really give you any guarantees despite seeming like guaranteed fixed income. And that's because nothing that's legit can offer guarantee. Unless it's a scam. Ponzi schemes offer guarantee returns, you know. But it absolutely does carry risk. But it is true, there is risk associated with everything. So here we go. Dividends are not guaranteed. The board can flat or slash, defer or kill them. Anytime yield vanishes. Exactly. When the markets crack, there's no price floor. Nothing can stop it crashing. Below a hundred dollars you're a junior and exposed. Unlimited dilution, liquidity, evaporation, fast zero safety net, not FDIC insured. But my understanding is it's backed by Sailors holdings, their treasure trove of almost 800000 Bitcoin and they have a cash war chest of billions of dollars to make sure they can pay these yields to the investors. You know what I mean? So you, you got to be aware of what can potentially happen. So Colin makes a good point, but clearly Sailor knows what the he's doing. But again, it's causing a lot of controversy in the market. Some are saying sailors destined to be doomed, it's going to crash strategy. That is people like Peter Schiff and bears or proponents who are, you know, against bitcoin that are promoting other things. But you tell me how you feel about this. Personally, I think Sailor is going to continue with the infinite money glitch of raising infinite buying unprecedented amounts of bitcoin next Story of the Day Fan Meta Planet forms a new venture firm as it expands the Bitcoin playbook. That's right, Meta Planet, often dubbed the Japanese strategy, the country looking to recognize Bitcoin as a regulated financial asset within the next couple of years. Meta Planet said today they'll be tasked with funding, incubating and scaling companies that build regulated Bitcoin financial infrastructure, particularly those that strengthen Japan's domestic ecosystem to make it a stronger competitor and internationally, bro. Meta Planet says it's expanding its Bitcoin strategy on the expectation that Bitcoin will be reclassified as a regulated financial asset by January 2028, right in time for the next having anticipated to probably take place at around March, maybe April of 2028. Shout out metal Planet. They're already one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in the world. The investment program will support seed stage through the growth stage startups that build the bitty infrastructure on the Bitcoin Layer two Lightning network and other payments and lending focused platforms. Meta Planet said startups focus on the stable coins, trading in the options and derivative markets. Custody and tokenization may also receive backing indicating it may support crypto infrastructure beyond the bitty ecosystem. The incubator program will focus on the early stage bitcoin and crypto infrastructure startups in the country, while the grants program will fund bitcoin open source developers, educators, researchers and community organizers. Meta Planet said it expects to pour 4 billion Japanese yen, which is 25 million USD into these programs over the first couple of years, 2, 3 years, which will be funded by the cash flows generated from the company's Bitcoin income business. Their CEO, you know and board of Director were named Meta Planet Venture representatives and that CEO by the name of Simon Gurevich. Stack and bitcoin still Meta Planet main priority. Despite the expansion of the crypto startup investment, Meta Planet said accumulation and holding bitcoin over the long term remains the core focus. Meta planet currently the fourth largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 35,000 Bitcoin on the balance sheet and two and a half billion marked on the balance sheet. The CEO said in June that it aimed to accumulate 210,000 Bitcoin 1% of the Bitcoin networks maximum supply. So if that's 1% maximum of the supply and Sailor's about to have a million, I mean Sailor damn near already has 5% of the bitcoin supply and he'll have it soon, which is crazy. And also Larry Fink, 5% of Bitcoin supply. Satoshi, 5% of the Bitcoin supply. Everyone would around a million. Bitcoin has 5% of the bitcoin supply. So just between Sailor would we say Larry Finkster, BlackRock CEO and Satoshi, that's literally 15 of all Bitcoin from three individuals. It's pretty wild. Next story of the day, ark Invest sees 1/3 of the bitcoin supply at risk of a quantum threat. That's right. There's been lots of controversy here in the market. Quantum computing is gonna steal all the bitcoins and going to zero. Even that celebrity guy we played a clip the other day, Terrence Howard. Howard, Terrence, whatever the name, he's like it's just gonna die and go to zero as soon as I hit the button, you know. But people don't know what they don't know. But quantum computing is a risk. But the question is, is it a risk right now? Well, let's break this down. 65 of the Bitcoin supply is not vulnerable to a threat of quantum computing. But 35 of the Bitcoin supply remains at risk according to a white paper published by Ark Invest, a bitcoin focused financial service company. Unchained. This includes around 5 million Bitcoin, 25 of the total supply assumed migratable due to the address reuse. And 1.7 million bitcoin, or 8.6% of the supply, assume loss and pay to public key addresses, the earliest form of transaction script of the bitty blockchain which lock funds directly to the public keys. Another 200,000 bitcoin which is 1% of the supply assumed to be migrable due to the address type. Now this supply could be vulnerable to quantum theft if the Quantum computers can break Bitcoin's elliptic curve curve crypto cryptography, which would require 23, 30 logical cubits and tens of millions to billions of quantum gates, the report argued. So even so, their practical feasibility would require quantum systems to reach performance levels that our research suggests will take time to achieve. Want the big takeaway here? All banking institutions and financial institutions of the world will be hacked by quantum computing before Bitcoin. Make note of that. So until you start seeing all the government being hacked, including all their databases and financials and such, you don't got to worry about Bitcoin being hacked. Because Bitcoin is the most secure network in the world. And that's what people fail to understand. It only gets stronger as the hash rate continues to grow, bro. The paper's estimates are far broader than those in February COIN shares analysis. The realistic market relevant portion of the quantum vulnerable bitcoin was about 10, 200. Bitcoin only.05% of the supply, which is basically a half of 1%. And even then, the legacy P2PK addresses account for much larger theoretical exposure. And separately, the first quantum computer facility with 1 million physical qubits is expected to be finished in 2027. So it doesn't even exist yet is the point. Quantum breakthrough remains long term risk for the biddy. Arc's white paper argues the quantum risk will evolve over the extended period with many intermediate warning signals rather than an abrupt single point of failure. Quantum breakthrough remains a long term risk rather than an imminent threat to the Bitcoin network, which gives the community time to research and make plans. Precisely. And eventually it'll just have like quantum resistant wallets and they'll say move all your Bitcoin from XYZ wallet to the new quantum resistant wallet. Best of luck. Hackers trying to scam us. You know, so personally I don't think it's a concern Bitcoin must implement the quantum safe address formats despite the governance challenges. And I think that's precisely you know, what they're going to do. BIP 360 they say is not a final solution for the Bitcoin quantum threat. They say the proposal introduces a new address format, but critically does not include post quantum digital signatures which are essential for any meaningful long term defense against the quantum attacks. Here's my two satoshis. Bitcoin developers will always be ahead of the curve for the quantum threats. And as technology evolves, so will the Bitcoin devs and our technology to protect your biddies. You know, so personally I think it's a great narrative to spread the FUD and keep the price suppressed. And that's why they're pushing it in the mainstream. You know, you hear all the fud, they're just going to hack everyone's bitcoins. Going to zero. Not gonna happen. You know, can it happen? Sure. And you could also win the Powerball and not be Jeffrey Epstein, but best of luck with that one. A weak password on an exchange is way more likely to be cr. I know exact that's what I'm trying to say. The likelihood of a 24 word key key phrase, seed phrase being hacked, it's slim to none. It's never happened before and it's not going to happen anytime soon. And when it starts being a thing, by that time every financial database and password will have already been hacked. You know, keep that in mind. Next up, JP Morgan sued again over alleged role in a 328 million crypto Ponzi scheme. First and foremost, I'm not shocked. JP Morgan is the most corrupt banking institution that has ever existed and it's currently the largest JP Morgan chase in the U. S. And they've also banked Epstein's clients. They had to pay unprecedented fines. They've paid billions of dollars over the years. So this is nothing new and doesn't shock me because these banks are known for money laundering and tax avoidance. But just saying. Check this out. JP Morgan face in a 328 million crypto Ponzi scheme lawsuit with now defunct Goliath Ventures investors on Tuesday filed a proposed class action lawsuit of the U.S. district Court for the Northern District of Cali accusing JP Morgan of ignoring suspicious transactions and allowing Goliath to use the infrastructure to collect investor funds. The lawsuit notes that despite JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon's repeated criticism a bitcoin the bank allegedly failed to prevent crypto scammers from carrying out fraudulent wire transactions. Quoting them here, Chase, by virtue of its know your customer actually knew the Goliath was acting as a private equity cryptocurrency pool operator, investing money for investors without being licensed at all to sell these investments. Sounds like unregistered securities. The U S Attorney Office of the Middle east the Florida District announced the arrest of Goliath CEO Christopher Delgado February 24th. Faces a maximum penalty of 30 years and federal prison if convicted on all counts. You're innocent till proven guilty apparently. Now prosecutors said Goliath, formerly known as Jeny Ventures, operated the scheme through Jan 2023 to Jan 2026. The lawsuit claims JP Morgan was the sole banking institution for Goliath from January 2023 to May of 2025 and obtained at least 328 million, which are was believed to be over 2000 investors, hence the class action lawsuit. Best of luck to them. These things get drawn out, the lawyers end up with all the money. I mean, but I hope these people receive their funds back. And you know What? I think J.P. morgan should make these people whole. How wealthy is J.P. morgan as a banking institution and should they have the liability here? Absolutely. Hence why they're included in the lawsuit. The U.S. complaint also names the bank of America take them all down. This is basically Rockefeller cartels here. You know, corrupt as a mofo. More complaints are coming as the team is still identifying victims. So if you are a victim to this Goliath scam at JP Morgan, bank of America, hop on the class action lawsuit. You know, let me know if anyone's been impacted or affected by that and just be very careful and weary. Everyone wants your crypto and almost all the time it's a scam. Next up, U.S. prosecutors urged the judge to deny Bankman Freed a retrial bid. Yeah, imagine him having a retrial. Think of all the corruption which would be going on. Just look at the grin in his animated image. I don't trust anyone with that curly hair, Afro without the Afro sheen, you know, I don't trust. But anyways, Thursday, Bloomberg reported US Prosecutors urged the federal judge to reject Bankman Freed's request for a new criminal trial, arguing the former FTX chief failed to meet the legal standard of a retrial. And also, he was more recently trying to campaign Trump to pardon him. And Trump did verbalize that he wasn't going to pardon him. I hope he's, you know, sticks to his word there because we'd hate to see this guy get out of jail, launch a new scheme and steal everyone's crypto for the second time. But anyways, the court has yet to rule on the retrial request. Bankman Freed filed the motion, they should say his attorney for a new trial in February, arguing the testimony from four former execs could challenge the prosecution's account. And, oh, FYI, his partner in crime with the grippy from Mississippi, Caroline Ellison. She's a free woman now. She did get released more recently. The defense are you. Testimony from Salami and Chapsky would weaken the government narrative presented to the jurors during the trial. Judge Kaplan later ordered prosecutors to respond to the motion by March 11, which was yesterday. The judge has not yet ruled on whether the motion will proceed. Bankman freed separately continue to appeal his conviction in the U.S. court of Appeals. And FYI, it's very hard to get, you know, a judgment overruled in an appeal. And it's a very lengthy process. It could take four, six years, just FYI. Jury convicted Bankman freed in November 2023 on seven council fraud and conspiracy related to the misuse. Yes, stealing everyone's customer funds for his own investments, which tanked at the time. You know, his sister firm, Alameda Research, which was a conflict of interest. And that's where he had Caroline, the CEO of. He was later sentenced to 25 years in prison. And ironic enough was in the same jail or prison as Diddy. I don't know if they're still hanging out together, you know, playing spades. But Bankman Freed's court efforts have unfolded alongside public speculation and be seeking a presidential pardon. Yeah, cuz he's verbalized that in his own X account. And that's my next question. How do people in prison have access? Can someone tell me, how do they access tweeting and shit? Does someone else have their account? I, I was always wondering with that, like, how does that work? But anyway, like, how is he still sending tweets from jail? That's what I want to know. But anyways, on February 1st, the former FTX CEO praised President Trump's crypto stance on social media, adding the scrutiny over whether he was trying to build political support or pursuing legal relief. Obviously, it's the latter. We're not. The speculation has gone to nowhere. Thank God. Publicly, Jan 9, Trump reportedly told the New York Times, I have no intention of pardoning Bankman freed. So leaving an appeal, good for Trump. I mean, doing something right, that's good. But anyways, next up, final story of the day. Bitcoin catching up to gold hints at an opportunity within the risk. You can't short your dorks. You can't afford it. All right, fam. Final story of the day. Bitcoin catching up the gold hints at an opportunity within the risk. Hence you can't short your dorks. Checker long term bitty price trend against goal shows bullish Peter shift after retrace into a level previously seen 2017, 2022, 2023. The potential trend change appears alongside what the analysts describe as the opportunity within the risk. MN Capital founder Van Pop noted the bitcoin to goal ratio showing strength after forming a bullish divergence with the relative strength index, as we know is the RSI on The daily chart is outlined right here. A bullish divergence occurs when the price forms lower lows while the momentum indicator such as the RSI forms higher lows. The setup signals faden selling pressure and as best I share my screen, my apologies. I thought I was bada boom bada bing. In February, the ratio retraced to a key support level 12 to 13 that previously acted as resistance in 2017 before turning into support 2022 and 2023. As a result, the level may serve as a potential bottom for the bitcoin long term trend against gold. And that's the current level we're at now. Another reason for the possibility is the change that the Bitcoin TO Gold traded ETFs flowing over the past month. That's right. For example, the US Gold Back ETF, which is GLD, recorded 3 billion worth of outflows on March 6. This surpasses any previous large daily outflow seen over the last two years by 200 plus percent. So where do you think those outflows go? Into the B to the T to the c? Meanwhile, the 30 day change of the Bitcoin ETF flows improved to 906 million of net inflows March 11, up almost 2 billion of outflows from the earlier month. The holdings measure in native units show another divergence. For example, the 30 day change of Bitcoin ETF balances have improved to 12,900 Bitcoin from 34,000 while gold ETF holdings dropped to roughly 606,000 ounces from 1.4 million ounces February 13th. And according to the Bance research, the current macro volatility may represent an opportunity within the risk. Well that's right, there's always opportunity with the btc. The report noted Bitcoin has moved similarly to the macro assets like oil and US equities amid the US Israel and Iran war, reflecting how the global events are currently driving the price action. This chart says it all. You can see the Bitcoin in the yellow, you can see the US 500 I guess stock index there in the black and then in the green the WTI capital starting to return to the bitcoin. Despite the volatility, the share of the bitcoin trading volume from the US Bot ETFs have increased recently, signaling rising institutional activity. You feel me? Yet the ETFs still represent only 9% of the total Bitcoin spot trading, well below 30 40% of the ETF to total equity trading volume of the US equity markets, suggesting significant room for the institutional expansion. Speaking of expansion, I need to talk to Samson. And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode Hoddle. Time and time again, Detection based cybersecurity solutions have failed to stop ransomware. It's time to rethink your posture. ThreatLocker offers a zero trust approach to endpoint protection that stops ransomware before it strikes. Threatlocker delivers a deny by default strategy where you choose what to run, then block everything else. The result? No stress about the latest malware because with ThreatLocker you block it by default, take charge of your cybersecurity and gain control over your environment. Visit threatlocker.com today and stay one step ahead of cyber threats.
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