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2280: War Tested Bitcoin vs Gold - The $2.2M BTC Scenario
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law not available in all states
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In today's show we'll discuss war tested Bitcoin versus gold the 2.2 million dollar Bitcoin scenario. I'll break down the math. Everything you need to know. Also we'll discuss how Bitcoin and gold react differently to this Iran war sh as well as changing Basil rules could unlock huge liquidity according to the latest from Bitcoin analysts. Also clarity Act 2026 odds are now extremely low if not pass before April. We'll also discuss the U S national debt just exploded 543 billion in the past four months on the back of this Iran war triggering a new depression. We'll also discuss the Bitcoin price teasing key support we reclaim 70 GS I'll break down the latest you know TA and everything you need to know. We also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here SAT snacking Sunday. Today is Pot Episode 2280. I'm your host JV alongside Fed Chair Nipinator keeping them nipinating and today is 3-15-2026. Pretty little bitties breaking out. This is great especially considering we get our Sunday close during the live stream. We're floating just above 71500 and the high on the day is 72G's baby. So most likely we will get a Strong close above 70,000 critical support. But let's kick it off with our
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feature story of the day.
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This is a post I wanted to break down the math of war tested Bitcoin versus gold the 2.2 million dollar Bitcoin scenario. And I will break down the math of how we get to 2.2 million per coin and also shout out Max
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Kaiser, the high priest of Bitcoin because
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he's the first one I ever heard predict bitcoin soaring to 2.2 million.
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But here's what happens to Bitcoin when
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the global capital begins abandoning the fiat currencies during geopolitical crisis Recent geopolitical shocks
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once again tested one of the biggest debates in global finance. So what is the real safe haven in times of crisis like right now? Is it gold or is it Bitcoin? When tensions escalate and uncertainty spreads across the markets, capital historically flows into gold. It has been the traditional store value for thousands of years. But something different is starting to happen. Bitcoin increasingly behaving like a parallel monetary system, competing with gold for the global capital. And during the recent war related market volatility, the reaction between the two assets revealed something pretty fascinating. Gold moved. As expected. We hit the all time high more recently. Roughly, you know, 5,700 an ounce. But Bitcoin showed something far more powerful. Resilience and growing structural demand. That matters because the macro environment today is unlike anything we have seen in the past. Global debt exploding. The US alone is now carrying over 34 trillion in national debt.
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In total global debt. And leverage across the financial systems estimated to be approaching 543 trillion. And I verified these numbers, just FYI, and that's an insane level of debt. I'll say it again. 543 trillion is the global debt. Now, central banks are trapped. They cannot allow the rates to stay high forever without breaking the system. And historically, when debt levels reach these extremes, the governments ultimately choose the same solution. Currency debasement. Which is exactly why scarce assets become so important. For centuries that asset was gold. But now Bitcoin exists. At least for the last 17 years. Now, gold's market size versus Bitcoin. Here's where I want you to pay attention. The total global market is estimated to be at roughly 36 trillion. That's the total gold market. Bitcoin's market cap by comparison is right now 1.4 trillion. So you got 36 trillion gold versus 1.4 trillion bitcoin. Yet Bitcoin has several structural advantages including perfect fixed supply. 21 million. No one can change that. Not even Epstein's clients. And that's a beautiful thing. Also, borderless settlement, decentralized verification, instant global liquidity, installation. And yeah, of course gold is scarce. But Bitcoin is provably scarce. True scarcity. Gold can be discovered. In fact, 1 to 2% of the gold supply expands every year. Also, don't forget 1933 Gold Seizure Act.
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That's right.
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Gold can be confiscated. Gold is expensive to move across the
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borders and they can steal it from you.
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Bitcoin can be sent anywhere in a matter of minutes, anywhere in the world. It's borderless, right? That difference becomes extremely important during periods of geopolitical instability like now. And because when capital needs to move quickly, of course Bitcoin's going to win. Now the institutional shift. This is why the institutions are increasingly treating Bitcoin as digital gold. Obviously, strategy is the perfect example. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed massive amounts of the supply. Corporate treasuries are accumulating. Just look at what STRC is doing with strategy. Nation states are quietly studying Bitcoin reserves. And in fact, even in the US we have the, you know, Bitcoin strategic reserve. And capital markets are beginning to build financial vehicles designed specifically to acquire Bitcoin at scale. And when large pools of capital begin competing for fixed supply assets, something very predictable happens. Supply shocks form, demand accelerates, available liquidity disappears. Then price discovery moves vertically. Simple supply demand stock to flow. When you got massive demand, very limited
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supply causes a supply shock.
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And Bitcoin goes parabolic.
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Now for the gold parity model. One of the simplest valuation frameworks for
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Bitcoin is gold parody. If Bitcoin were to capture just a
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share of gold's current 36 trillion market cap, the math becomes extremely interesting. A Bitcoin match goals entire market cap
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36 trillion divided by 21 million bitcoin
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just ballpark 1.7 million per bitcoin. And we did a deep dive on this specific number with the gold parody to Bitcoin in yesterday's episode. So if you missed it, check it out. But many analysts argue Bitcoin could ultimately surpass gold. Well, duh. Not merely just match it. Why? Because Bitcoin is not just a store of value. It's also a global settlement network. Programmable money, perfect money, and censorship resistant capital. In other words, Bitcoin combines monetary properties of gold with the technological properties of the Internet. Which is why some of the most bullish projections go significantly higher than the gold parity. So now for the 2.2 million bitcoin scenario. This is where the $2.2 million bitcoin scenario enters the convo. We got bitcoin OG Max Kaiser, who has repeatedly argued bitcoin could reach 2.2 million per coin one or higher. Driven by global capital fleeing fiat currencies. His thesis, pretty simple. As governments continue printing money to finance debt and war, investors will increasingly move into hard assets that cannot be debased. Gold will capture part of the demand, but Bitcoin may capture an even larger share. Because Bitcoin is easier to custody, easier to transport, easier to verify and impossible to inflate. Max has summarized the thesis pretty bluntly. Everything's going to zero.
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Uncovered repairs against Bitcoin. In other words, if fiat currencies continue losing purchasing power, which they will over time, Bitcoin doesn't merely just rise in price, it reprices the entire monetary system. And in that scenario, a multi million dollar bitcoin price stops. Sounding so crazy, doesn't it? It becomes simple arithmetic.
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And why?
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War accelerates the shift. Periods of geopolitical conflict historically accelerate monetary change. Wars increase government spending, Government spending increases debt. Debt leads to monetary expansion, and the cycle repeats. Monetary expansion leads to more currency debasement, and currency debasement drives capital into scarce assets. For centuries, that meant gold. But now there's two competing safe havens. Gold and Bitcoin. But bitcoin has something gold has never had. A fixed terminal supply. No new discoveries, no unexpected supply shocks, no central bank manipulation. Of production, just 21 million coins forever. So now for the real question. It's no longer whether bitcoin will compete with gold. It already is. The real question. How much of the global store value market will bitcoin realistically capture?
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10%? 25? 50? 100%? More. Let me know. Because once capital starts migrating into bitcoin at scale, the supply dynamics start to change dramatically. There's simply not enough coins available for everyone who will eventually want them. And that's how exponential prices begin moving. Gold dominated the last monetary era, and bitcoin may dominate the next. And a bitcoin ultimately captures more gold capital than gold, as many analysts now believe. Then the 2.2 million bitcoin scenario may not be a wild prediction after all. It may be conservative. It may simply represent the next phase of price discovery in a world transitioning to digital hard money. Because once global capital begins competing for fixed supply, 21 million coins, the math becomes unavoidable. Demand grows, supply disappears, and the price moves to wherever the market must go to find the next seller. Which raises the real question, which is my question for you. What is the price of bitcoin when the world finally realizes there aren't enough coins for everyone? And that's the million dollar question, fam. Let me know in the chat. Did I want to see Peter sniff in the blue dress?
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No.
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Is Peter Schiff wearing a blue dress now? Like Bill Clinton? What's the world coming to?
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Glad I didn't see that one.
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Good. Good lord. Not much bitcoin left. Yeah, there's already over 20 million bitcoin mined. More recently, we hit that massive milestone, which means until the year 2140, there's less than one more million Bitcoin that'll ever be mined. And no one can change it, not even Epstein's clients. Yeah, we're going to expand here. I already hit you with the 2.2 million dollar Bitcoin price action. Now, how bitcoin and gold react different to the Iran war shock. And I'm just going to give you highlights here because this is a long one. Here's some of the takeaways. The 2026 Iran conflict created a major geopolitical shock, triggering volatility across global markets, which is to be expected. It pushed investors to reassess traditional safe haven assets such as gold and emergent alternatives like bitcoin. Gold initially benefited from the safe haven demand, but later declined. As the US dollar strengthened, the bond yields rose. This showed macro forces can override crisis driven buying. Bitcoin experienced Volatility but recovered quickly reflecting growing role as an alternative asset. However, the price movement remained closely tied to market sentiment and liquidity conditions. And also the strength of the US dollar played a key role in shaping both gold and Bitcoin's performance as rising demand for dollar liquidity influence the global ass. So yeah, it's very unfortunate that we're
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at war right now.
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You can see here a major geopolitical shock rattling the global markets. And you've probably noticed it at the gas pump. I know gas is significantly just went up. I went to fill up my whip the other day, which it was typically always 50 bucks and I thought I was going to top it off because you know, I pay pre pump and long story short, 3/4 of a tank that means it like just went up 20. Ironic enough, it says right here about 20 of the world's oil is estimated to pass through this crucial waterway known as the straight of Hormuz, if I'm pronouncing that right. And so yeah, big conflict going on. Gold's mixed performance as a safe haven asset. Personally if I was a central bank, yeah, I'd be diversified into precious metals. But we're laymans, we're the plebs who the is, you know, hoarding gold at times like this. And as what's his name, Mr. Grant Cardone even said he has buddies trying to offload, let's say 10 million of gold. He's only being offered 70% of the market value. That's just a reality. You know, there's nothing as liquid as bitcoin. And that's just a fact, Jack. In fact, that's a sexy little bitty blackjack. Bitcoin's reaction to the crisis, volatile. Yet it's been very resilient. We're maintaining above 71,000 right now and
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we are at war.
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The role of the US dollar strength. Well, we know one thing is for certain, US dollar currency debasement, which we already did a deep dive on oil and inflation fears drove much of the market. Its response, what the divergence reveals about the safe haven status Gold deeply embedded in the global financial monetary architecture. Bitcoin on the other hand, exists within a comparatively young evolving digital finance ecosystem. I mean gold is the poor man's bitcoin. Bitcoin is the future. There's nothing quite like it. And that's why you're watching my show right now. The real world test of the digital gold narrative for years advocates a bitcoin position it as digital gold, referring to the modern decentralized alternative to the traditional safe haven ass. The Iran conflict offered a real world
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test to the claim and precisely, you
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know, bitcoin's doing its thing.
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We're actually rising right now while we're
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at war, which I bet many of you didn't anticipate. But there you go. There's a little overview of, you know,
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how the conflict in Iran is affecting
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right now global assets, including the oil prices which are up 20%, gold prices
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which are going to continue to go up against the dollar, Bitcoin prices which are mathematically guaranteed to go up against the dollar, real estate, pretty much everything is going to go up against a dwindling dollar at this point because all fiat currencies eventually return to their original intrinsic value zero.
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Let's continue knocking it out. Change in Basel rules could unlock huge liquidity as Trump says, huge liquidity. That's right. The Basil 3 rules which govern the bank capital requirements are said to be updated in 2026.
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a bitcoin receives a lower risk rating and the revised rules it could trigger huge influx of liquidity into the biddy. Under the current Basel rules. Bitcoin similar digital assets are given in 12 50% risk weight meaning banks must hold the reserve asset at a one to one ratio to back any bitcoin held on the balance sheet. This restrictive capital requirement makes it almost impossible for the banks to hold Bitcoin or offer Bitcoin related services. And naturally it's all by design quoting them here. The Fed just announced a proposal on how these rules will be implemented into the US with a 90 day public comment window and a bitcoin's treatment improves even slightly, it could open the door por favor to the banks to finally integrate the B into the financial system as according to this guy Nick Crypto do not ignore this Peter shift, you know. And in February several crypto treasury company execs call for the reforms to the BASIL rules to implement more accommodating risk weights for digital assets. That would allow the banks to participate in the blockchain economy. The Bassel Committee on Banking Supervision proposed the current capital requirements for cryptos back in 2021 which place crypto in the highest risk category. That's because there's a war on crypto and while bitcoin and crypto carry a 1250 risk weight under the current rules investment grade corporate bonds carry a risk
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weight of up to 75%.
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Ain't that wild? But they should definitely separate bitcoin from
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crypto because the risk weight maybe for
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crypto is true 1250 compared to 75 for corporate bonds.
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But bitcoin we know is the least risky asset.
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It's you know you can't lose if
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you're willing to huddle, you know. But anyways gold government bonds of physical cash have a zero risk weight. How the does government bonds and cash trash have a 0% risk weight? That's how you know this is all corrupt. The basil capital requirements are a covert foam or form of choking off exactly. Operation choke point 2.0.
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That's what I'm saying.
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It's very nuanced way of suppressing activity
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by making it so expensive for the
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banks to do those activities and that's how they could try to control the banks from touching the bitcoin. But if everything changes, you know we'll have a brighter future. The banks yo status satoshi is the greatest and I'm sticking to it.
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Next story of the Day Clarity Act 2026 Odds extremely low if not passed before April do you think this thing is going to pass? What are your thoughts show quoting them here if the Clarity act done past committee by the end of April OD of passage in 2026 becomes extremely low and this according to Galaxy Digital head of the firm Wide Research Alex Thorne. He says this needs to hit the Senate floor by early May. Floor times are running out. The odds diminish every day that passes. It comes after the U.S. senate Majority Leader John Th said he doesn't expect the chamber to act on the Digital Asset Market structure legislation before April as it will prioritize the Save America act, which would require voters to provide proof of the US citizenship in person to register. Thorne said the main perceived holdup for the Clarity act is the debate over whether stablecoin rewards will disrupt traditional banking system. Well apparently it will because the bankers are scared of it. It's very possible the rewards are not the final hurdle but instead just the current hill the bill is dying on, Thorne said, pointing to political potential issues around defi Developer protection and regulatory authorita respect by authority clarity act may not pass until 2029, according to the investment bank. That's insane. By the way, investment bank TD Cohen warned January the crypto market structure legislation may not pass until 2027. Might not take effect till 2029 if Democratic lawmakers manage to stall the boat beyond the midterm elections, which it seems like they're going to do, and regain power at least on one chamber of congress. And then earlier in the month, U. S President Trump criticized banks for stalling the Senate's crypto market structure bill amid disagreements over the stable coin yield payments. The U S needs to get the market structure done asap, according to Trump. But there you go. Do you think this likely gets passed or it'll just keep kicking the can down the road. Holler. All right, next up, U s national debt explodes 543 billion in the past four months as Ron Paul warns an Iran war could trigger the new depression. Oh no, where are we gonna go? U S national debt has skyrocketed by more than half a trillion in four months according to the U S Treasury Department. Since December 12, U. S national debt has risen 543 billion for the U S Department's debt to the penny data set, uh, the total U S national debts now 38.8 billion. An increase of 7% year over year. Sucks. The rapid growth of the national debt comes as former US Rep Ron Paul warns of the ongoing Middle east war between the Iran and the one hand and the US of the Israel on the other will make the situation worse. And at this point I'm starting to see more people rooting for Iran, you know. But anyways, he says the rate of debt increases will be greater as long as the government's spending almost a billion dollars a day or more on a regime change war in Iran. Billion dollars a day being wasted. Imagine if that billion dollars got allocated into BT C. Now according to Paul, the rising debt will place the fed under pressure to lower the interest rates and also may force it to purchase more the US Government debt. Who wants government debt? And as a result, Paul says foreign countries would cut their purchases of the U S Debt to the U S Government's out of control spending by the resentment over the U S Government's hyper interventionist foreign policy. These factors can also accelerate the increase in rejection of the dollar's world reserve currency status. A loss of the reserve currency status will cause a dollar crisis leading to an economic crash worse than the great depression. So I don't Want to experience, you know, another Great Depression.
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So let's end the debt, let's end
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the war and let's stack some bitcoins
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on the strategic bitcoin reserve already with the miles spaghetti.
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All right fam.
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Bitcoin price tasing 72 GS. We're less than 300 away right now
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and we're about to get the weekly close. So this is actually looking pretty strong here.
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You're looking at a one hour chart. We're having a nice pump on the day, not too shabby for a Sunday.
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You can see here exponential moving average and the old 2021 all time high
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currently 683 which we're above and 69 which is a good sign. But yeah, the recent correction on Friday
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on bitcoin was essentially just wrist off
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appetite to not be having positions going into the weekend. Markets are turning back upwards again. Probably we'll see a slight pullback later today for the CME gap closing the appetite.
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But on the other hand I will
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assume we'll continue to grind upwards grinding all my life sacrifice hustle, pay the price with resistance at 75 to 80. We also have the CME futures gap in the low 80s so hopefully we can continue to soar. Port Pavor van a pop correctly forecast that the price would revisit the Friday closing price which is sitting at 71.3 which we're currently above. That's a good sign as well. Geopolitical risk meanwhile remained at the forefront of the trader discussions. That's right, WTI crude oil end of the week attempting to re pass a hundred dollars per barrel with the global oil supply shocked still playing out.
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If macro was calm, the sort of structure could easily turn into a relief rally. But with the current backdrop, downside risk still hasn't really gone away. Now every time price pokes above 70g is the sellers show up. Not panic selling, just steady profit taking. He summarized about the lower time frames. Which direction do you think the preload video will go? Let me know. And checking out the charts you can see here. Checking out CoinMarketCap total crypto market cap back on a rise at 1.1% of the day sitting at 2.43 trillion. Bitcoin specific market cap 1.43 trillion. Crypto greed and fear index today is a 15 in extreme fear. And checking out the time chain Calendar today block height 948 10. You could exchange one FIA monopoly dollar for 1395 sats so you know precisely what to do. You pick up the sats, pick up a couple of gats. Pick up a couple of bitcoin taps from my man sergio over@bitcoincaps.net let them know JV sent you. And if you don't know, you'll never know. So figure it out. And don't forget to check out bitcoin news alerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hle.