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2281: Global Bitcoin Supply Shock - The $3M BTC Scenario
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- [00:00]
JV
Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, Monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or or situations.
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- [01:40]
JV
Welcome fam to the number one Bitcoin pod in today's show. We shall discuss the global Bitcoin supply shock along with the $3 million bitcoin price scenario quoting Samson Mao, the Great rotation and is coming. We'll also discuss the Bitcoin price exploding to a million dollars based on these reasonably conservative assumptions according to the Bitwise CIO also strategy scoops up another 1.6 billion in Bitcoin as their holdings surpass 761,000 BTC also Meta Planet just raised 255 million and adds warrant structure for their Bitcoin buys. Bernstein says Bitcoin rebound reflects more resilient long term higher Hodler case. We'll also Discuss Bitcoin pushing towards 75Gs as we're breaking out right now in real time. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more right here in today's show. Today is Pot Episode2281. I'm your host JV alongside my co host, Fed Chair Nip. And today is March 16, 2026 and Bitcoin's making a big move. In fact, everything in the crypto sphere is pumping today. But let's kick it off with our feature story. Global Bitcoin supply shock incoming. The $3 million Bitcoin scenario. I'm going to break it all down for you. Alongside with the math. This something I posted a little earlier today. I put a lot of time into publishing. It says something historic is unfolding in the bitcoin market.
- [03:15]
Fed Chair Nip
Not retail hype and not ETF speculation.
- [03:19]
JV
A global bitcoin accumulation race has begun. We're talking about corporations, institutions, sovereign funds and even the nation states all competing for the same scarce asset. And the math behind it points towards a scenario many investors still believe is impossible. And that's $3 million per bitcoin. Let that sink in. And now let's break down the numbers. Bitcoin's total supply is permanently capped at 21 million coins. Thank God for that. That number will never change. But the real circulating supply is truly far smaller. Over the past 16 years, millions of coins have effectively disappeared from circulation. There's an estimated 3 to 4 million. Bitcoin believe permanently lost millions more locked in deep coal storage. And long term hudders now control the majority of the supply. Which means the tradable supply may be closer to 14 to 15 million coins versus 21 million, making it that much more scarce. And every year that supply becomes even tighter. Now compare that to the scale of global capital. This should blow your mind. The world currently stores wealth across several massive markets and I verified these amounts. Gold right now is roughly 36 trillion. Market cap. Gold global real estate is close to 400 trillion. Global equities is 127 trillion. Global debt securities, 144 trillion. Global sovereign bonds, 133 trillion. Global FX reserves, less than 13 trillion. Now Bitcoin's market cap is roughly 1.5 trillion. But combined, this global market cap represents over 800 trillion in global capital pools. Bitcoin's competing with with all of them. Now let's start with the simplest comparison, which is gold. For thousands of years, gold has served as the world's primary reserve asset during times of monetary instability.
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Fed Chair Nip
Central banks hold it, sovereign wealth funds
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JV
hold it, investors hold it as protection against currency debasement. But bitcoin now offers something gold never could. And that's absolute digital scarcity. A Bitcoin were to simply reach parity with gold's 36 trillion market cap. The math looks like this 36 trillion divided by 21 million Bitcoin, that equals 1.7 million per Bitcoin USD.
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Fed Chair Nip
That alone would represent one of the
- [05:44]
JV
largest monetary revaluations in modern history.
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Fed Chair Nip
But Bitcoin may not stop at gold parity.
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JV
Because Bitcoin isn't just competing with gold.
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Fed Chair Nip
That's the bigger takeaway here. It's competing with every store value asset on the planet. If global investors begin reallocating even the small percentage of capital for these markets into Bitcoin, the impact could be enormous.
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JV
Just 5% of the global real estate
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Fed Chair Nip
wealth moving into Bitcoin would represent nearly $20 trillion. Just 10% of global equity markets rotating into Bitcoin would represent over $12 trillion. And if Bitcoin absorbed a meaningful share of the global reserve assets, the numbers become staggering. If bitcoin reached roughly 63 trillion in total market value, the math becomes 63 trillion divided by 21 million BTC, which equals $3 million USD per bitcoin. Suddenly, the idea of a 3 million dollar bitty no longer looks extreme. It looks like basic monetary math. And the early signs of the supply shock are already appearing. This morning, Michael Sailor Strategy announced another massive Bitcoin purchase of 22, 337 Bitcoin for $1.57 billion at an average of 70,000 per Bitcoin. And as of March 15 the company now holds 761, 68 BTC acquired for approximately 57.5 billion at an average price of 75,000 per coin. That means one single publicly traded company now controls over 3.6% of the entire Bitcoin supply and strategies playbook is now being copied around the world. We call it the Sailor put. Corporations are beginning to adopt Bitcoin treasury strategies. In fact, there's now roughly 200 companies that that have followed the Sailor put
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JV
Public companies, energy firms, tech companies, even sovereign governments. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue absorbing supply on behalf of institutional investors. We know Black Rock IBIT always leading the charge. But at the same time the rate of the new Bitcoin entering the market remains fixed. That's right. Bitcoin miners currently produce only 450 new Bitcoin per day. And Sailor single handedly is purchasing like 2000 a day which is five times the daily issuance from one company. So at the current prices that represents roughly 30 to 35 trillion worth of new supply. I'm sorry, million of new supply of Bitcoin being entered to the market daily, which is the 450 issuance which is roughly 3.125 bitcoin every 10 minutes. Tik Tok next block. But the institutional demand can overwhelm that supply quickly, which is what we're experiencing. A single billion dollar purchase can absorb weeks of global mining supply in one transaction. And when that happens repeatedly across institutions, each ETFs, corporations and sovereign investors, the result is a classic supply shock. Demand accelerates, available supply shrinks, prices move dramatically higher to rebalance the market. And according to Jan3 CEO Samson Ma, the next phase may already be beginning. He calls it Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart choice. Make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies or all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.
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JV
Rotation as he just tweeted here more recently, the Great Rotation is coming. It shows you the chart. And as gold is dwindling, that money is rotating into the hardest asset ever
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Fed Chair Nip
created, known as Bitcoin.
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JV
The global Shift, where capital slowly rotates out of gold and into Bitcoin as a superior digital asset. Now, for thousands of years, we know gold dominated the monetary system. But Bitcoin introduces something humanity has never seen before, a perfectly scarce monetary asset. No government can inflate it, no central bank can print it, and no new supply can ever be discovered. Only 21 million coins will ever exist. So even if a fraction of the world's 800 plus trillion in global capital pools begins rotating into Bitcoin, the price adjustments required to absorb that demand could be enormous. And in that world, the path towards $3 million per bitcoin may arrive far faster than most investors expect. The global Bitcoin supply shock has already begun.
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Fed Chair Nip
And if you don't know, now you know.
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JV
But yeah, so Samson is saying, the Great Rotation is a coming gold tumbles below 5,000 as Bitcoin jumps to 73, now 75. We're right on the cusp. The regime shift divergence Is accelerating. But now for our next story of the day. Bitcoin price could explode to a million dollars based on these reasonably conservative assumptions. According to the Bit Y cio Matt Hugan.
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Fed Chair Nip
That's right.
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JV
Chief Wise Investment Asset management says Bitcoin will reach a million under what he describes as reasonably conservative assumptions. So let's keep it conservative. In the new memo titled How Bitcoin gets to a million, he argues that many analysts underestimate the Bitcoin long term potential because they treat the global store as static. He says he evaluates Bitcoin as a digital store value asset competing primarily with gold. And again, that's roughly 36 trillion market cap. Using that framework, estimating the Bitcoin potential price involves calculating the size of the store value market and estimating the Bitcoin share, dividing that by the value of Bitcoin's fixed supply at 21 million coins. Currently, store value market totals just under 38 trillion ballpark, including roughly 36 trillion in gold and 1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. The that places Bitcoin share of the market at slightly below 4%. At that size, Bitcoin would need to capture more than half of the market to reach 1 million per coin. A scenario Matt Hugan says appears unrealistic if the market itself doesn't expand. However, he argues the key factor many investors overlook is the store value market has historically grown significantly. And that is the bigger picture. When they first saw US Gold ETF launched in 2004, the gold market was only 2 1/2 trillion. Let that sink in. Today it's nearly 40 trillion. So I don't know. In ballpark 1520X it has gone up in 20 years. And can you now foresee Bitcoin's market cap today at roughly 1.5 in 20 years, potentially being 40 trillion. Potentially higher, potentially 100 trillion depending upon how much of the market share it eats up as all assets are going to zero against Bitcoin.
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Fed Chair Nip
Just saying.
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JV
If that growth trend continues, he estimates the global store value market could reach 121 trillion. Now we're talking within the next decade.
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Fed Chair Nip
I think he's right.
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JV
In that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of the market to reach 1 million per coin. And again, this is the conservative projection. He acknowledges risks remain, including the possibility to store value market grows more slowly or that Bitcoin fails to gain significant share. I see that highly unlikable, likely. But he argues the opposite outcome is also possible. As he says, as I see it, the base case the store value market will continue to grow as it has and Bitcoin will continue to gain the market share as it has. Leads you to much, much higher prices than we have today. And very, very honest perspective there and very conservative. Easy peasy. That's why I say 3 million. Send it next breaking story of the day. Strategy buys 1.6 billion in Bitcoin as holdings surpass 761,000 BT here's the official Sailor Flex this morning. Strategy has acquired 22, 3, 37 Bitcoin for $1.57 billion at 70,000 per coin. And as of March 15th, we huddle. 761,000 Bitcoin acquired for 57 billion at 75,696 per BTC. Yeah, that's right. Sailor ain't slowing down. The world's largest public holder, Bitcoin, continues aggressively stacking Bitcoin, bringing the company's total reserves to over 760,000 BTZ with which is over 3% of the entire supply. Let that sinking. Strategy acquired 22,000 Bitcoin for one and a half billion, according to the US SEC filing today. The purchase ranks amongst the five largest Bitcoin acquisitions by Strategy on record, following a massive 18,000 Bitcoin buy for 1.28 billion a week earlier. So these are unprecedented levels of accumulation from the Gigachad here. The purchase was made at an average price of 70 GS but per Bitcoin. So he's already well in the profit on the purchase below the company's overall weak acquisition price of 75G's bitcoin average a price of 70,000 for the week March 9th through the 15th. Based on the daily closing prices, the acquisition brings its holdings to 761,68 BTC. Almost as much Bitcoin as Fed Chair Nipinator. Just saying. Acquired for a total cost of roughly 57 billion. The purchase came amid Strategy selling record amounts of its preferred preferred equity stretch after easing its sales rules on March 9. Again, STRC is doing incredible numbers and they're the ones raising. This is their high yield. It pays like 11 and a half percent annual dividend and it's, it's just booming right now, which is how they're able to raise so much money to buy the bitcoin. This was the first week Strategy could run the STRC ATM in extended hours with a second broker. And again, it's just been going wild. They're just like eating up the daily issuance of the Bitcoin like an ant eater. And according to Strc Live. The stock saw a record week last week with 10767 Bitcoin estimated to be bought across just four active days. And you can see Sailor flexing here. STRC is now the most liquid preferred stock in the market. And look at that. Compared to everything else there is no second best. According to the filing, Strategy sold 11.9 million STRC shares 1.18 billion during the week with net so here's the thing. Sailor just rinse and repeats and can just raise infinite capital and then just purchase all the bitcoin. That's precisely what he's doing and he's just one company. Are you starting to understand the bigger picture here? The company also sold 2.8 million common shares generating 396 million. The strategy is holding 761000 Bitcoin. The company would need to acquire 238000 to reach the 1 million Bitcoin milestone. Mark my words, this will happen probably as soon as the second quarter of this year.
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Fed Chair Nip
I don't think he even needs to
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JV
the end of the year at an average of about 5,700 bitcoin per week
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Fed Chair Nip
with the remaining 42 weeks left of the year.
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JV
Next story Meta Planet raises 255 million and adds a warrant structure for the bitcoin buys and we ain't talking Liz Warren, you know what I mean? Meta Planet said Monday it raised 255 million. Yeah, a quarter billion in a private placement, launching a new warrant structure to fund the additional bitty purchases. Meta Planet Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are the things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations.
- [17:39]
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JV
U N D Raise this from institutional investors to a private placement for new shares. The private placement price new shares at a 2% premium paired with fixed strike
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Fed Chair Nip
warrants at a 10 premium, which if
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JV
exercise could add 276 million in additional capital as firepower towards the company's goal
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Fed Chair Nip
of amassing 210000 Bitcoin. According to Simon Gurvich, who is their CEO. Meta Planet also issued a separate strike warrant offering on Monday which may bring an additional 234 million of capital to fuel the accumulation strategy of the fourth largest Bitcoin treasury company. So clearly they're doing big things. They're often coined the Japanese strategy as they're out of Japan. Konishiwa Meta planets issued another 100 million of move and strike warrants, which Jurovich called the first of the kind which
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JV
makes these exercisable only if the stock trades above a 1.01x m nav. The offering enables the Bitcoin treasury company to raise another 234 million of capital for bitcoin purchases. The M Nav tied clause aims to ensure every newly issued share increases shareholder value. Meta Planets M nav stood at 1.11. You gotta love the 11 omens x on Monday above the 1.01x threshold as the company held 35000 bitcoin, roughly 2.5 billion worth and price was trading at $245. The M nav ratio compares the company's enterprise value to the value of the crypto holdings. And m nav below A1 makes it more challenging for companies to raise funds by issuing new shares which may limit their crypto purchases. The new capital raising mechanism is similar to the playbook used by Mikey Sailor. Which strategy? The world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder. You don't say. Strategies at the market, common stock offer and program share similar mechanisms allowing the company to raise capital by gradually issuing new common stock share Strategy only issues these shares when the m NAV is above 01 to avoid dilution. And in October 2024, Strategy disclosed plans to issue and sell shares of his Class A common stock to raise up to 21 billion in equity and 21 billion in fixed income securities over the next three years. And where do you think all that money is going to go? B to the T to the C? And there you have it. Corporate accumulation ain't slowing down. It's only going to escalate. You feel me? Next story. Yo, Bernstein Bears.
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Fed Chair Nip
No, Bernstein not the Bears.
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JV
Say Bitcoin rebound reflects more resilient long term Hodler base. Let's break this one down. Bernstein said they outperform gold. The major equity indexes over the past couple of weeks. That's bitcoin obviously. Heightened conflict for the Middle east with bitcoin up around 7%, ether even up 9%. Yeah, we ain't seen ether float at this price action in a long time. Everything's pumping right now. Analysts attributed the shift partly to continued U S spot bitcoin ETF inflows and the steady accumulation of the corporate buyer. Such a strategy which they say are gradually strengthened in the bitcoin long term huddler base contributing to the more stable market structure. Quoting them here, maybe it takes physical conflict to realize Bitcoin remains the most portable digital and liquid asset with no counterparty risk. Bernstein's broader point is that ownership is changing as roughly 60% of the Bitcoin supply has been inactive for more than a year. The market is increasingly dominated by the long term hudders rather than the fast money flows. As more Bitcoin moves into the ETFs, corporate treasuries and wallets that rarely transact. Short term sell pressure may matter less potentially given the market a more stable
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Fed Chair Nip
base during periods of stress.
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JV
And as you can see here showing you in the chart, the percentage of the Supply last active one plus years ago is on the rise, currently 60%. Coin Gecko shows that Bitcoin traded 73. We're now actually above 74 and we
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Fed Chair Nip
do have a CME gap at around 81 and a half.
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JV
We'll see how that plays out here shortly. Also US BOP have three consecutive inflow weeks totaling over 2 billion. Bernstein attributed the inflows to rising long term capital allocation through the wealth managers institutional funds including the pension and sovereign funds. Bernstein said spot tests have nearly reversed their year to date capital outflows with net withdrawals narrowing to 460 million compared with roughly 92 billion in total assets under management. Bernstein also pointed the strategy's continued Bitcoin accumulation this year. And as you know, I mean strategy
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Fed Chair Nip
is just killing the game. You already know that.
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JV
And also Bitcoin. Treasury data shows ETFs and exchanges currently
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Fed Chair Nip
hold 1.6 million Bitcoin worth over $117 billion while public companies hold 1.15 million
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JV
BTC worth roughly 84 billion.
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Fed Chair Nip
And if you don't know, now you know.
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JV
Next up, Bitcoin's push towards 75Gs revives the debate over what drives the capital flows. Let's break it down, shall we? The latest from Bloomberg. They say inflows to the ETF suggest a return of the institutional confidence. Net flows for the 12 US listed spot Bitcoin ETFs top 763 million last week, a third consecutive week of the inflows. And you know how it goes. When we have inflows, price goes up.
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Fed Chair Nip
On Monday, Meta Planet announced another raise
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JV
of a quarter billion which we already touched upon. They're trying to raise additional firepower to
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Fed Chair Nip
march towards their goal of 210000 BTC as their CEO proclaims right here. Let me know if you think they'll reach that target. Meanwhile, you know Sailor's trying to get 5% of the supply, which is 1 million bitcoin. I think he's going to achieve it
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JV
in the second quarter this year.
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Fed Chair Nip
Let me know your thoughts. And adding to the institutional Bitcoin demand narrative, Bitfinex analysts say the Bitcoin is approaching this week's FOMC meeting on March 18th. That's right, Wednesday we get the big FOMC meeting with renewed momentum and has decisively reclaimed 70 G's. We're on the cusp of hitting 75 during the live. The report notes Bitcoin's market structure has improved meaningfully even though the bitcoin has yet to secure a breakout above the local range highs we're breaking out right now. Bitty go up forever. Analysts say over the past month the regime the sellers have shifted like Peter traders have started increasing the leverage of the long side. Open interest is arising and the purpose CVD has turned positive while the spot flows remain weak. This suggests the push towards the top of the range is largely being driven by derivatives positioning rather than the spot demand. And checking out coinmarkcap.com get a little latest what's happening. You can see the mark Capital total Crypto is up almost 4% on the day sitting at 2.54 trillion. Bitcoin market cap fast approaching 1.5 trillion. Checking out the cryptogreed and fear index we finally have risen. You know it's currently a 23 in extreme fear. And checking out the time chain calendar one block height 940, 941. And as of today March 16, 2026, you could exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1346 SATs. So get with a program and buy some sats. Smash buy, hit the repost. JB, you still have 225, 425. Okay, that's actually great to bring up
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JV
because I did say for a long
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Fed Chair Nip
time for this cycle my bear scenario is 222. My base case was 420 of course for the Broskis and my bull scenario is 1.1.
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JV
We're still early in the cycle, so I'll stick with it. You know, we'll see how it plays out. I still see we can easily hit 200,000 the cycle. That's my, you know, bear scenario. 420 for the base and yeah, 1.1 million for the motherfucking bulls. Why not? And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.
- [26:01]
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