2291: $10M Bitcoin Incoming - 401(k) Trillions Enter Bitcoin

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC Macro Signal

Episode 2291: "$10M Bitcoin Incoming – 401(k) Trillions Enter Bitcoin"
Date: March 26, 2026 | Host: Bitcoin News Alerts Team

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Overview

This episode dives into a potentially historic shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics, focusing on how U.S. 401(k) retirement plans — a multi-trillion-dollar market — could soon see direct Bitcoin exposure due to new regulatory moves. The discussion also examines Michael Saylor’s relentless corporate Bitcoin accumulation, the rebalancing of major miners like Mara, Fidelity’s game-changing take on Bitcoin’s role in portfolios, and a concise technical and macro analysis of the current BTC market.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. $10M Bitcoin Thesis: Retirement Capital's Tidal Wave

• Headline: Regulatory momentum as the White House clears review for allowing crypto, including BTC, in 401(k) plans.
  • Host (01:46): "White House clears review for proposal to allow crypto and 401k retirement plans, tapping into a $13 trillion market."
• $13.9 trillion in U.S. employer-based defined contribution plans could potentially access Bitcoin allocations, transitioning from traditional assets to BTC.
• Institutional BTC exposure via ETFs is now mainstream, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF amassing 800,000 BTC in under two years.
• Even small allocation percentages—1-4%—of trillions is a massive demand shock.
  • Co-host (03:27): "Even Bank of America is recommending 4% now. You know what I mean?"

2. BTC Market Dynamics: Demand vs. Supply

• BTC market cap ($1.4T) is dwarfed by stocks, gold ($36T+), bonds, and real estate globally.
• Fixed supply is BTC’s magic: "21 million hard cap, baby." (Host, 05:27)
• Tradable BTC supply is even smaller than the theoretical cap, due to long-term holders and institutional treasuries.
• Supply is rapidly becoming illiquid as corporations and ETFs scoop up BTC for reserves.
  • Co-host (05:54): "...witnessing in real time at unprecedented levels thanks to Strategy [MicroStrategy]."

3. Supply Shock Mechanics and Price Forecasts

• Historic market forces: As trillions attempt to access a dwindling liquid supply, "markets do not move gradually, they reprice violently." (Host, 06:39)
• References to Laurence Fink’s warning: Small institutional flows could push BTC to $700,000 per coin.
• Ultimate projections: $5M, $10M, or even $21M per coin, driven by simple supply and demand math.

4. Rise of Nation-State and Institutional Adoption

• Host (08:46): "For over a decade, high priest Max Keiser warned about the coming global hash war...Now, the corporations are hoarding it. ETFs are absorbing supply. Nation states are entering the race."
• Speculates which nation will be the BTC “superpower,” referencing El Salvador as the current leader.

5. Self-Custody vs. Institutional Paper BTC

• Host and Co-host stress self-custody: ETFs and corporate treasuries expose BTC to confiscation risks, referencing the 1933 U.S. gold seizure.

6. Policy Milestones: 401(k) Crypto Access & State Moves

• White House Review concluded March 24, 2026, proposes allowing broader alternative assets, including BTC, in 401(k)s for a 60-day public comment period.
• Executive order by Trump (from August 7, 2025) directed expansion of alternatives in retirement plans.
  • Host (11:48): "Crypto-linked exposures are moving closer to the 401k market..."
• Recent state-level action: Indiana legislation requiring at least one crypto investment option in state retirement plans by July 2027.

7. Michael Saylor’s Strategy & Corporate BTC Monopoly

• MicroStrategy ("Strategy") now holds ~76% of the BTC owned by U.S. treasury companies, holding over 760,000 BTC.
  • Host (14:07): "Strategy now holds roughly 76% of all the bitcoin owned by the treasury companies."
• Saylor’s recent $42B (combined) capital raise to acquire more BTC; may hit 1 million BTC soon, rivaled only by BlackRock’s ETF.

8. Bitcoin Miners Reposition: Mara Sells BTC for Debt Buyback

• Mara sold ~$1.1B in BTC in March 2026 to repurchase debt at a 9% discount, cutting debt by 30%.
  • Host (17:51): "Mara sold more than a billion of bitcoin in March to repurchase convertible debt at a discount."
• Now holds just 38,000 BTC, down from being the #2 corporate holder.
• Pivot to AI and digital energy as miner revenues shift due to BTC price pressures.

9. Fidelity’s New Portfolio Research: Bitcoin in the 60/40 Mix

• Fidelity’s research now challenges the notion that zero Bitcoin allocation is "neutral," suggesting even 1-3% dramatically improves risk-adjusted returns.
  • Host (21:52): "Bitcoin has posed at a highest return as well as the highest risk adjusted returns among the assets it examined."
• Their model shows the "maximum Sharp" portfolio would use 9.4% BTC, zero bonds, based on conservative estimates.
• Gold’s crash triggers renewed focus on BTC as macro hedge.

10. Technical & Macro Market Update

• BTC holding in a tight range around $70K amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions (U.S.-Iran).
• Inflation concerns high; oil prices sharply up.
• "BTC acts as a defensive, accumulating asset rather than one being chased up." (Host, 27:36)
• Extreme fear dominates the sentiment index.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Pension Flows:
  "Because the moment retirement capital begins allocating the bitcoin, the demand shock becomes massive."
  — Host (03:53)

• On Price Potential:
  "Markets do not move gradually, they reprice violently...5 million per coin, 10 million per coin. We've even heard Saylor predict 21 million per coin or more. Not because of the hype with simple mathematics, simple supply, demand."
  — Host (06:39)

• On Corporate BTC Monopoly:
  "Strategy now holds roughly 76% of all the bitcoin owned by the treasury companies. Got a monopoly here. It's like owning Boardwalk and Park Place, you know with the hotels and all that."
  — Co-host/Analyst (14:13)

• On Self-Custody:
  "Self custody is superior to all that because you're holding the underlying asset versus paper bitcoin, you know what I mean? So there's no second best...only properly self custody bitcoin can is unconfiscatable."
  — Host (09:29)

• On Portfolio Construction:
  "Fidelity says the maximum sharp portfolio included 9.4% Bitcoin and no bonds at all…Other than that, and maybe the government. But a separate Kelly criterion exercise produced 6.5% position size."
  — Co-host/Analyst (24:17 & 25:14)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:46] – Start of feature story: 401(k) Proposal & Supply Shock Discussion
• [04:33] – Global Market Size Context (BTC vs. Gold, Bonds, Real Estate)
• [05:34] – The Tradable vs. Theoretical Supply Difference
• [06:39] – Supply Shock Mechanics and Hyper Bullish Price Forecasts
• [08:46] – Nation-State and Institutional Adoption Discussion
• [11:52] – 401(k) Policy Developments & State Initiatives
• [13:33] – Michael Saylor’s Strategy Domination
• [17:51] – Mara Relocates BTC to Buy Back Debt
• [20:07] – Fidelity's New Research on BTC in Portfolios
• [25:34] – BTC Price Action & Macro Update: War, Oil, Inflation
• [27:36] – Market Sentiment, Fear Index, and Closing Notes

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Episode Takeaways

• The intersection of regulatory green lights and trillions in retirement capital is setting BTC up for a potentially explosive supply shock.
• Michael Saylor’s accumulation (via “Strategy”) leaves other corporates in the dust, while major miners pivot to new revenue models amid BTC price and halving pressures.
• Fidelity, one of the largest asset managers, now frames some BTC exposure as a baseline investment thesis.
• The macro and technical environment is tense but quietly bullish, with BTC displaying consolidation and resilience.
• The episode strongly urges listeners to value self-custody over paper BTC products.

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For deeper dives and breaking alerts:
Visit bitcoinnewsalerts.net for premium content and community Q&A.

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Transcript

[Host]

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[Host]

Welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod. In today's show we shall discuss a $10 million Bitcoin supply sh forming inside America's retirement system. That's right. Breaking news. White House clears review for proposal to allow crypto and 401k retirement plans tapping into a $13 trillion market. Also Michael Sailor strategy dominates dat Bitcoin buying as treasury demand collapses. Also Mara sells 1.1 billion in Bitcoin to buy back debt at a 9% discount. We also discuss Fidelity's new bitcoin study challenges the traditional 6000 portfolio. Also be breaking down the latest technical analysis and everything you need to know in the market. All this plus so much more right

[Co-host/Analyst]

here in today's show.

[Host]

Today is Pod Episode2291. It's March 26, 2026. Let's kick it off with our feature story of the day. You know I always bring the heat. We have a $10 million bitcoin supply. Shock may be forming inside George Foreman that is inside America's retirement system and almost nobody is talking about it. So yeah, headline here today and this is why this sparked this topic. White House clears review for proposal to allow crypto and 401k retirement plans. And I'll dissect this here in a second, but first I want to hit you with what I came up with. When you include all employer based defined contribution retirement plans, the number rises to 13.9 trillion in capital which bitcoin will be able to tap into once this is approved. This is the backbone of the American retirement system. In fact, if any of you have any 401k let me know in the comments. I don't have any, nor does Nipinator. I'm just saying. But anyways, for decades that money flowed into the same assets, stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Bitcoin simply wasn't a part of the equation yet. But something is beginning to change. Large financial institutions are quietly building that infrastructure which allows retirement accounts to gain

[Co-host/Analyst]

that exposure to the BTC spot. Bitcoin ETFs now exist as of January 11, 2024. And in two years, BlackRock IBIT, the

[Host]

largest, most successful Bitcoin eat or ETF

[Co-host/Analyst]

in general the most successful one of all time, accumulated over 800,000bitcoin in two years. Let that sink in. And that's one asset manager.

[Host]

You also have major custodians securely storing

[Co-host/Analyst]

institutional bitcoin such as Coinbase Prime. They're the custodian for strategy via Sailors Company, BlackRock and many others. And retirement platforms beginning to explore bitcoin allocations inside the long term portfolios. And at first the allocations are small. 1%, 2%. And even bank of America is saying recommending 4% now. You know what I mean?

[Host]

That's the start. But even those tiny percentages become enormous when applied to trillions of dollars. Because the moment retirement capital begins allocating the bitcoin, the demand shock becomes massive. This is exactly why Black Rock CEO Lawrence Fink recently warned that even the small institutional allocations to Bitcoin would send the price to 700,000 per coin. And this is where the real story begins. Bitcoin still operates inside a market that is tiny compared to the capital now circling it. At today's market cap is roughly 1.4 trillion in total market value. Which means it's literally half of the

[Co-host/Analyst]

the market cap of Microsoft, which is exceeding 3 trillion.

[Host]

Gold alone though, sits at 36 trillion. And when gold peaked at the all time high of like 5,700 an ounce, it surpassed 40 trillion. Global bond markets exceed 145 trillion. And the global real estate market exceeds 390 trillion. And bitcoins, the monetizing all of these pools of capital, retirement capital represents another

[Co-host/Analyst]

massive ocean of money.

[Host]

And now Bitcoin's appearing on the radar. But demand is only half the equation. This is where things get very, very interesting. The other half is the supply. As bitcoin supply behaves very differently than traditional assets. There is no board of directors that

[Co-host/Analyst]

can issue more shares. Thank God for that.

[Host]

And there is no central bank that can expand supply during periods of high demand or war.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Thank God for that as well. Bitcoin's monetary policy is fixed, permanent and unchangeable. That's a beautiful thing.

[Host]

The total supply was programmed from Satoshi

[Co-host/Analyst]

in the very beginning.

[Host]

21 million hard cap, baby.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Finite.

[Host]

But here's the part many investors misunderstand. The theoretical Supply to Bitcoin is not

[Co-host/Analyst]

the same thing as the tradable supply,

[Host]

because the amount of Bitcoin that actually

[Co-host/Analyst]

circulates through the markets is obviously far smaller than the total that exists. Over the past decade, enormous quantities of Bitcoin migrated to the long term storage. Early adopters hold large reserves that rarely move.

[Host]

Institutional buyers are building strategic treasuries, which

[Co-host/Analyst]

we're witnessing in real time at unprecedented levels thanks to Strateg. Right, and Bitcoin ETFs absorbed thousands of coins every week. And Sailor just proposed another $42 billion acquisition plan to buy more Bitcoin. So the corporate balance sheets now contain Bitcoin as a reserve asset. There's in fact now over 200 companies following in the Sailor playbook. And every time Bitcoin moves into long term storage, it effectively disappears from the liquid trading supply. The coins still exist, but they're no longer available to buy. Which means something subtle but powerful is happening at the same time. Inside the bitty market, the pool of capital interested in buying the Bitcoin keeps expanding. Meanwhile, I still want to talk to Samson, but the amount of Bitcoin actually available to purchase obviously is shrinking. This is how supply shocks form. And when supply shock meets trillions of dollars of incoming capital, markets do not move gradually, they reprice violently. First 200 GS will double, maybe 250 of the current firmament. Then 500 GS, then a million. That's right. But if retirement capital begins allocating at Bitcoin at this scale, those numbers may simply represent only early milestones. Because trillions of dollars cannot enter a fixed supply asset quietly, it forces a complete repricing of the entire network. The kind of repricing which eventually produces numbers that markets once believe were impossible. And that's where these numbers come from.5 million per coin, 10 million per coin. We've even heard Saylor predict 21 million per coin or more. Not because of the hype with simple

[Host]

mathematics, simple supply, demand. Bitcoin is gradually moving from niche technology asset into the architecture of the global finance. And the moment retirement capital begins allocating in size, the transition accelerates dramatically. Which leads to a question that very few investors are even asking. Because when demand explodes and supply cannot

[Co-host/Analyst]

expand, price only has one direction to move.

[Host]

So what happens to Bitcoin's price when trillions of dollars in retirement capital begin competing for an asset whose supply?

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[Co-host/Analyst]

So you never miss a moment, can never increase.

[Host]

That's my question for you today.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Let me know in the comments.

[Host]

And here's another example. If just 5% of U. S retirement capital allocates to Bitcoin, that's roughly $700 billion entering a 1.4 trillion dollar market. And Bitcoin supply can expand.

[Co-host/Analyst]

The math gets interesting fast, you feel me?

[Host]

But there you go yo, and actually as a bonus, I want to read this one to you. I posted this last night. Very short post but very powerful. For over a decade, the high priest Max Kaiser warned about the coming global hash war. Most people thought bitcoin was just a trade. Now the corporations are hoarding it. ETFs are absorbing, supply nation states are entering the race. The first bitcoin superpower hasn't been fully revealed yet.

[Co-host/Analyst]

But when it is, the world order changes overnight.

[Host]

And there you go.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Yo, which nation do you think that will be? Could it be a China, a Russia?

[Host]

Will it be the US if we actually move forward with the strategic bitcoin reserve executive order which got signed back

[Co-host/Analyst]

in March of 2025 but nothing has happened, let me know.

[Host]

But we all know bitcoin country got the strategic first movers advantage thanks to president Buell making bitcoin a legal tender back in 2021. I refuse to have my asset tied up in an account that I have to pay a penalty for accessing. I'd rather have a bit stacked and I can liquidate when I need it. And this is a great point. We often talk about Bitcoin ETFs and we talk about strategy. You know, the largest corporate player, self custody is superior to all that because you're holding the underlying asset versus paper bitcoin, you know what I mean? So there's no second best when it comes to that. And it's important we preach this message because only properly self custody bitcoin can is unconfiscatable. We cannot say the same regarding ETFs or strategy or any corporate treasury play because the government or lizard folk behind

[Co-host/Analyst]

the government can single handedly, you know,

[Host]

create a bitcoin seizure act.

[Co-host/Analyst]

And just like they did in 1933 with gold.

[Host]

Yeah. I mean, let's dive into our next story of the day. White House clears review for the proposal to allow the 401k retirement plan. That's right. White House Office of Information of the Regulatory affairs has completed its review of the Department of Labor proposal which would reshape how 401k fiduciaries evaluate alternative assets including digital assets. Their website shows the review concluded on March 24, which was two days ago with the action mark consistent with change and proposed classified as economically significant. They also said they now expect to publish the proposed rule for the standard 60 day public comment period, which is usually followed by revisions and issuing of the final rule. The proposal allows President Trump's 8-7-2025 executive order directing federal agencies to expand access to alternative assets in 401ks, including exposure to digital assets to certain investment vehicles. The order directed to reevaluate restrictions around alternative assets and defined contribution plans including obviously digital assets like bitcoin, private equity and even real estate. It also called for interagency collaborations between the U S Department, treasury and the sec. The completed review clears an interagency hurdle for proposal which would widen the path for alternative assets of the U S

[Co-host/Analyst]

defined contribution retirement plans.

[Host]

Also, crypto linked exposures are moving closer to the 401k market. For example, May 28 they rescinded the 2022 compliance release urging fiduciaries to be

[Co-host/Analyst]

extremely cautious when considering crypto for 401k retirement plans. I'd be very cautious having no exposure to bitcoin, but that's just me. Signaling a broader shift in the federal government stance towards retirement plan exposure to digital assets. Meanwhile, the US retirement market reached the record 48 trillion. I didn't even know it was that much. You know, I looked it up on Google and it was only 13 trillion. So it's much, much bigger pool of capital than I even anticipated. That's good. Excellente. Also, Indiana advances crypto retirement access.

[Host]

Other U S states have launched their

[Co-host/Analyst]

own legal initiatives to make digital asset a retirement plan asset. For example, that was back February 25th. Indiana lawmakers passed the bill which would require certain state retirement and saving plans to offer a self directed brokerage option with at least one crypto investment option by July 1, 2027. The bill would allow Indiana citizens to hold bitcoin and digital assets a part of the retirement plan for the first time.

[Host]

But there you go, yo. I mean this is just the beginning again, pretty significant pool of capital in 401k and it's one of the smaller pools of capital. But bitcoin will be demonetizing all asset classes. As a wise man once said, it's

[Co-host/Analyst]

all going to zero against the pretty little bitty.

[Host]

Next up, Michael Sailor strategy dominates dat bitcoin buying as treasury demand collapses. Here's some of the highlights. Corporate bitcoin buying is effectively consolidated around

[Co-host/Analyst]

a single firm known as Strategy, formerly

[Host]

known as the micro strategy MSTR which acquired about 45000 Bitcoin of the past month. You know I think they just recently exceeded, what was it, 760000 bitties while all other treasury companies together bought only about 1000 bitcoin. So sailors purchasing effectively 45 times the amount of bitcoin than all the other treasuries combined. Hence there's no second best when it comes to bitcoin. Treasury company got to Michael Saylor and

[Co-host/Analyst]

then there's everyone else, you know.

[Host]

Strategy now holds roughly 76% of all the bitcoin owned by the treasury companies.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Got a monopoly here. It's like owning Boardwalk and Park Place, you know with the hotels and all that. Creating a concentration risk of the trade

[Host]

once pitched as broadening institutional ownership of the asset. Quite hilarious.

[Co-host/Analyst]

But clearly becoming the largest bitcoin bank, which is his ultimate ambition.

[Host]

Now the downturn for the bitcoin price above 110. Actually we hit the. Yeah, we hit the 126 firmament back in October 4th quarter of last year and has been downhill since. Yo, we recently bottomed out at like 599. Let me know if you guys think the bottom is in. Corporate Bitcoin buying has narrowed to a single company. Clearly Strategy largest corporate hodler the world purchased roughly 45. Yeah, 45,000 is no joke. You know there's massive accumulation. This chart says it all. It shows you the number of bitcoin purchases made by other treasury companies skyrocketed 54 in a 30 day period. That was back in August of 2025 in the middle of the bitcoin treasury summer. That's when everyone was following in the Sailor playbook. But look at now it's just Sailor doing his thing again.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Purchasing 45 times more than all the

[Host]

other corporate treasury plays compiled together. Every other other company combined brought only a thousand bitcoin of the same period. That's a number 99% decline.

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From a peak of 69, 000 Bitcoin in August of last year, their share of the total purchases collapsed to 2%

[Co-host/Analyst]

from 95 at the height of the

[Host]

trade sailor strategy again 76%. You know and you already know the scenario has played out exactly as described. Also July, August 2025 the some of the companies were accumulating.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Bitcoin was 110 you know back then.

[Host]

Strategy moved to insulated self disclosing December 1.44 billion cash reserve and recently he just announced another 42 billion dollar raise.

[Co-host/Analyst]

I believe it was 21 million via MSTR which is you know, the stock and then also one of the other

[Host]

products which is the high yield STRC

[Co-host/Analyst]

stretch raising another additional 21 billion in capital being raised via the infinite money glitch known as the a sailor put. And then that's all going to flow into bitcoin. So I mean I think Sailor's accumulation is only accelerating.

[Host]

He's still doing billion dollar buys. No one else is nowhere near what he is doing right now as far as you know, corporate plays are concerned but very fascinating. Sailor you know already has over 3% of the entire circulating Bitcoin supply. He'll soon have 5% when he hits hits a million which is fast approaching. I predict it'll happen probably in the second or third quarter of this year and he's not going to slow down there, you know, eventually have 10 of the supply and the race is on Black Rocks ibit the largest ETF has roughly 800,000 bitcoin similar to Sailor. So we'll see who gets to a million first. Let me know who you think will succeed first cross the finish line which is really just the start of the race because it's a marathon. Next breaking story of the day. Mara sells 1.1 billion in Bitcoin to buy back debt at a 9% discount. Maybe it's some form of a trickery here.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Let's break her down.

[Host]

Mara sold more than a billion of bitcoin in March to repurchase convertible debt at a discount using his bitcoin holdings to reduce leverage. Interesting. The US SEC filing the largest listed U.S Bitcoin miner said it would buy back $1 billion of zero coupon convertible notes due 2030 and 2031 for roughly 913 million cash, capturing 88 million in savings close to 9% discounted on par. The company, excuse me, said it just sold 15000 Bitcoin for around 1.1 billion between March 4th and the 25th. That sucks. To fund the transactions, which it said would cut the outstanding convertible debt by 30 to roughly 2.3 billion once the deals close at the end of the month. And according to bitcointreasuries.net Mara now only holds 38000 Bitcoin on the public balance sheet. Damn. So Saylor's that much more in a pole position because ain't no one remotely

[Co-host/Analyst]

close to his holdings.

[Host]

Mara was number two. They may still be, but there's some competitors here. Mara's chairman and chief Executive order, Fred Thiel. I wonder if there's any relation to. Peter commented in a release that the transaction enhanced the company's financial flexibility and increased the strategic optionality. As Mara expands beyond the Pure Play bitcoin mining into digital energy and the AI HPC infrastructure.

[Co-host/Analyst]

I don't know what the HPC stands for, but it sounds like a std.

[Host]

Mara's pre market share price reacted positive to the news.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Rising from Yesterday's close of 8.25 to 9.29, a gain of 12%. So maybe they know what they're doing. But you know, I'm always skeptical when they start offloading their stash, you know what I mean? The move follows a 1.7 billion dollar net loss of the fourth quarter. This may explain what's going on. Driven largely by non cash fair value adjustment of the merit Bitcoin holdings, Mera pushed back against speculation that was quietly selling down as Bitcoin holdings. It leads me to believe they're in

[Host]

a precarious financial situation with bitcoin price kind of being suppressed right now. Miners are kind of at a loss,

[Co-host/Analyst]

you know what I mean?

[Host]

So maybe they're forced to do it. I don't see why they would willfully do that if Bitcoin was thriving right now, like at an all time high. I mean Marrow is part of the broader shift amongst crypto miners seeking more stable revenue streams.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Exactly.

[Host]

Redeploying energy and infrastructure towards AI. So maybe they look at the AI being a better, higher and best use to be more profitable right now. That's my understanding. Bit Deer also sold down as Bitcoin treasury to zero in February and pivots towards infrastructure services, base revenues and cloud and AI. So it's like a lot is moving into AI workloads right now. You know, follow the money. Next up, Fidelity's new bitcoin study challenges the traditional 6040 portfolio. That's right. Fidelity has used a new research report and shout out jury and Timmer. There we go. He's the head of macro over at Fidelity and he was the first one to predict that I'm aware of bitcoin going to a billion dollars per coin. He even put a timeline on it by 2038. So fidelity is the most bullish asset manager to ever exist. That's kind of cool, but I just want to throw that in there. They're arguing Bitcoin's role in portfolios can no longer be dismissed as a fringe question. Especially as the assumption behind the classic 6040 mix come under pressure. The report opens and you can actually download that report here will usually unusually direct framing. They say the central question is no longer whether bitcoin merits consideration. Fidelity says. Instead it asks what's your current bitcoin allocation and why? For the firm's research team, zero exposure may still be valid, but it now requires a well informed rationale. You know, what do people say?

[Co-host/Analyst]

Peter Schiff told me so.

[Host]

Jimbo Kramer's you know, Terence Howard says it's gonna die. I can see that in people's responses. That argument rests first on Bitcoin's historical numbers. Fidelity says Bitcoin has been a top performing asset in 11 of the past 15 years and over multiple time horizons.

[Co-host/Analyst]

It's the most appreciated asset in human history. That's a fact.

[Host]

Has posed at a highest return as well as the highest risk adjusted returns

[Co-host/Analyst]

among the assets it examined.

[Host]

The report acknowledges the familiar objection.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Bitcoin's volatility, which is absolutely an opportunity,

[Host]

remains the highest of the group but argues that the Sharp and Sortino ratios compare favorably.

[Co-host/Analyst]

While the bonds have looked particularly weak on both nominal and inflation adjusted terms. You heard from there. The paper tries to move the discussion away from philosophy into the portfolio construction. Fidelity leans on Bitcoin's hard caption that it's long, low long term correlation to the major asset classes and the sensitivity to the monetary expansion. One of the report's stronger macro claims is that it changes in global M2 have explained 87 of the Bitcoin price changes over the past 15 years and in R squared basis for you algebra guys out there, though Fidelity explicitly notes the correlation does not by itself prove causation it also argues that a Bitcoin and gold are similar enough to share the inflation hedge narrative. But guess what's happening right now? There's a great rotation.

[Host]

That's right, Gold just witnessed its biggest market crash in over 50 frickin years. And where you think that money is

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[Co-host/Analyst]

you never miss a moment into the BTC but distinct enough to remain complementary rather than interchangeable in the Diversified portfolios,

[Host]

the most consequential section for allocators in the portfolio work. Using a traditional 6040 portfolio of the US stocks and aggregate US bonds on the base case, Fidelity says Adam Bitcoin would have historically lifted both annual and total returns. Volatility rose and expected, but the report says the increase was compensated by the stronger risk adjusted returns, with the biggest improvement in the Sharp and Sortino ratios showing when the allocations move from 1 to 3%.

[Co-host/Analyst]

And just that small, you know, allocation

[Host]

change moves the needle, you know, exponentially, which is mind boggling. And perhaps more notably for the conservative

[Co-host/Analyst]

managers, Fidelity says the maximum drawdowns did

[Host]

not increase as dramatically as many would

[Co-host/Analyst]

assume, partly because the low correlation and partly because annual rebalancing kept the Bitcoin sleeve from dominating the portfolio. Fidelity's modeling does get more aggressive deeper in the paper. Let's talk now in a mean variance optimization exercise using what it calls conservative Bitcoin assumptions. 25 expected annual return and 50 volatility against 14 and a half percent expected equity returns and 2% for the bonds. The maximum sharp portfolio included 9.4% Bitcoin and no bonds at all. If you're to ask me 100 coal storage yo bonds like who has any interest in bonds? Barry Bonds maybe, because that's his name. Other than that, and maybe the government. But a separate Kelly criterion exercise produced 65 position size using historical annual returns, though Fidelity immediately warns that this is not an investment recommendation. They got to say that protect their tail, you know, Ask the nip inator and notes that more conservative assumptions bring that figure down to 10%. The point is less that institutions should adopt those weights than the bitcoin asymmetric payoff.

[Host]

But let's knock out our final story of the day, fam. Bitcoin dips 3% as analysis says 70 GS. Bitcoin price not obviously bearish.

[Co-host/Analyst]

Let's break her down here.

[Host]

You're looking at a one day chart. We got some green candles. A foreman like George, you know. Volatility picked up as the US session began with traders reacting to the latest developments of the US Iran war. A reported lack of mutual understanding over the peace proposal followed pressure from US President Trumpster. In the truth social posts Trump called

[Co-host/Analyst]

Iranian negotiators very different and strange they are. Better get serious soon before it's too late. Fuck round find out because once that happens, there is no turning back and it won't be pretty, which is suggesting it's going to be ugly and violent.

[Host]

That's Trump for you.

[Co-host/Analyst]

U S stocks turn red at the open While attention also focused on the longer term impact of the conflict on inflation.

[Host]

And as reported by the Kabisi letter

[Co-host/Analyst]

and others, Organization for the economic cooperation of development put U s inflation at 4.2% in 2026. Meanwhile, oil is up like 30, 40%. I put 75 in my tank. Gas, it went three quarters. I used to be able to fill up the tank for 50 bucks, you know. So I, I don't buy into any official inflation rates. Never have. The suits are always lying, you know, I'm sick of it. Potential rate hikes of the US and EU are now back on the table. That's what's up.

[Host]

Interesting. And with bitcoin still wedged in a narrow range trading company, QCP stressed its resilience within the overall macro landscape. Yeah, I must say bitcoin has been holding strong even on the landscape of what's happening with the war. Right now, bitcoin hovering at 70G's price action still feels more like quiet consolidation than outright stress. Preach. The broader macro backdrop remains fragile with risk sentiment weighed by renewed Middle east headlines. The oil still carrying a meaningful geopolitical premium even after pulling back from the week's highs. Yeah. QCP described bitcoin's price activity as not obviously bearish. For now, bitcoin is trading like an asset being accumulated on the dips but not yet chased. The range is holding, the surface is defensive but orderly.

[Co-host/Analyst]

And macro remains firmly in the driver's seat.

[Host]

And checking out the latest overall market perspective on coinmark cap, you can see total crypto market cap today down close to 3% at 2.36 trillion, which again is mind boggling. Microsoft for example has like 3 plus trillion dollar market cap. So all of crypto right now is smaller than Microsoft. Again mind boggling. Bitcoin specifically is 1.373 trillion total market cap. Checking out the Crypto Greed and Fear Index, we're back down at a 10 in extreme fear and checking out the infamous Time chain calendar. Today's block height 942344 and you can exchange one fiat monopoly dollar for 1450 for SATs. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hoddle.

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