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2297: $1M Bitcoin by 2027 - New Study Confirms Supply Shock
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K pop demon hunters Saja Boy's breakfast meal and Hunt Tricks meal have just dropped at McDonald's. They're calling this a battle for the fans. What do you say to that, Rumi? It's not a battle. So glad the Saja Boys could take breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day.
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Participating McDonald's while supplies last. A new peer reviewed study just confirmed bitcoin to hit $1 million next year by 2027 and up to 5 million per coin by 2031. And that's not even the real story. Because right now there's only 2 to 3 million Bitcoin actually available to buy. And if that supply keeps shrinking while demand ramps up, this move doesn't happen slowly, it happens fast. So what happens when trillions of dollars hit the market with no supply? Great question. So a million dollar bitcoin by 2027 just moved from speculation to peer reviewed research. You can see the headlines here and here. Bullish peer reviewed study forecast 1 million early 2027 and up to 5 million per coin by 2031. A new academic paper was just published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management laying out a clear thesis. Bitcoin's design creates a perfectly inelastic supply. And that changes everything. Because unlike every other asset on earth, Bitcoin supply cannot respond to demand. It doesn't matter how high the price goes, and it doesn't matter how much capital enters. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. For the first time in human history, we got a form of money with a finite limited supply. Thank God for that, right? No, Epstein. Clients can change the supply amount. And it's a beautiful thing. No adjustments, no expansion, no relief value. And according to this new study, that constraint is exactly what will drive the bitcoin price to $1 million by early 2027. My question for you. Are you ready? And under continued demand expansion, the same framework points towards $5 million plus Bitcoin by 2031. Which is even more bullish than Kathy Wood's bull case via Ark Invest. Bring it. But here's the part most people still don't even understand. The market doesn't price Bitcoin off the total supply. It prices off liquid supply. The coins actually available to buy, for example, what's actually available on spot via the exchanges. And that number is far, far smaller. The authors estimate it's as little as half of the bitcoin total supply and may be liquid today. And in many analysises, including what we broke down yesterday, some estimates suggest 70, 75% of Bitcoin is illiquid and hasn't moved in over a year, effectively removing it from the active supply. But what about all the rest? They're lost, held long term or locked away in coal storage. Great example. Satoshi has collectively roughly 1.1 million bitcoin scattered across the early addresses. And there's many others who have never move their coins. And many is lost, gone, stagnant, stalemated, you feel me? Which means the real market is operating on a fraction of that 21 million. The reality, the number of the coins actually available to buy at any given moment is closer to 2 to 3 million. And I've seen estimates at precisely roughly 2.4 million coins. Which means that's all that's available right now. You can't buy all 21 million coins. Some people haven't figured that out yet. Now layer in the key variable from the study, the daily withdrawals, which it pinpoints if just 1,000 to 2,000 bitcoin per day are consistently removed from the liquid circulation. The model shows price entering what they call hyperbolic growth. I also like to point out that the daily issuance to the miners right now is 450 Bitcoin per day, which is roughly 23.125 Bitcoin every block, roughly every 10 minutes. And Sailor's company alone is buying up five to seven times the daily issuance with their new product, STRC. As well as with MSTR, they also just recently announced a $42 billion, you know, raise so they can buy more Bitcoin. 21 million coming from MSTR. 21. I'm sorry, billion coming from STRC. So that's not linear, not gradual. We're talking hyperbolic. This is, that's the Peter shift. Because once supply tightens beyond a certain point, the price doesn't move slowly, it accelerates. And here's where things get exciting. And that's why this matters. Right now we are entering the exact phase this model is Built around, you feel me? Institutional adoption is no longer theoretical. Bitcoin ETFs just recorded 1.3 billion in inflows in March. Their first positive for the new year, which is a beautiful thing we'll dive deeper into later. ETFs are absorbing supply, corporations are accumulating while the governments are exploring strategic reserves. This is what the study calls a demand curve expansion. Let's not forget we have the Bitcoin Strategic reserve executive order which was signed back in 2025 by Trump. It's just a matter of them doing something with it here, you know. And this can spark what is coined the global hash war, which Max Kaiser prophesied many years back. And have President Bukele with El Salvador where they establish Bitcoin as a, you know, a basically a form of money in their country, legal tender. And when that expansion collides with a supply that cannot increase, the only variable left to adjust is the price action upwards. Violently. We've heard Samson MA call it a violent upheaval because we typically see the big moves in Bitcoin within 10 days. Let that sink in. All it takes is a 10 day expansion. Parabolic, hyperbolic growth. Which can send us to a whole new stratosphere. Even more important, this model doesn't rely on historical patterns. It explicitly rejects them. Because Bitcoin's future won't look like its past. That's right. The past doesn't equal the future. Why? Because for the first time we have nation states, institutions and global capital markets all competing for the same fixed pool of assets. None of this was present to in the prior cycles because we didn't get the institutions till early 2024. Right. And at the same time, here's the kicker most people are missing. Bitcoin doesn't need global adoption. It only needs a small percentage of the global capital. A steady drain on that liquid supply paired with incremental increase in demand, which we're witnessing. That's enough. Because in a system with no supply elasticity, even small shifts compound rapidly. This is why the study concludes Bitcoin's growth may longer be cyclical but structural. Where in the past, every four years we have a having. That's why a lot of analysts are suggest suggesting we have the extended cycle theory now, driven not by hype, but by the mechanics. Because once you understand Bitcoin cannot produce more supply, you realize something. The market hasn't fully priced in yet. There may not be enough Bitcoin available for the capital that's coming. Especially when we start Looking into the 8 to 900 trillion total addressable market real estate market hundreds of trillion. Got the retirement accounts now coming for the Bitcoin with the 401ks we did a deep dive into just yesterday. You know we have the gold market cap which you know bitcoin is demonetizing in real time. Currently 36 trillion. Just a fraction of those pools of capital moving into bitcoin. That's when the realization hits. Price doesn't slowly adjust, it reprices fast and violently. So the question to ask yourself when trillions of doll move into this asset class with a fixed and shrinking supply, what do you think happens to the price? Let me know your thoughts in the comments right down below.
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Also there was a recent post update from Plan B being March just closed at 68 $215 with an RSI which is relative strength index at a 44. As said before, as Plan B wrote alongside the chart, I would not be surprised if Bitcoin dips below the 200 week moving average at 59,000. Right now the realized price is at 54,000 before the next leg up towards the stock to flow $500,000 levels. Interesting times ahead. And if you're not familiar with the stock the flow it gives us a range that bitcoin will be between 250,000 and the $1 million range for this particular cycle with the average number being approximately $500,000 per coin. Let me know if you agree or disagree with Plan B and the stock to flow model. That means to say we're about to gap a lot higher in these coming times because bitcoin should be a lot higher than where we're currently at and I think we'd all agree on that now. Also Michael Sailor has said it and I'll repeat them here. If bitcoin is not going to zero, it's going to a million dollars per coin. Let me know if you that I agree. 100. You know what I mean. Just considering bitcoin has been around now 17 years, we can all agree it's not going to zero. And if it's not going to zero, it's going to a million. Now is the smartest time to buy because you can buy bitcoin basically at a bogo. Buy one, get one and the network is still more secure than it's ever been. So it's truly a no brainer. Also Sailor said 100 million dollar Bitcoin. I got to remind you now research confirms 1 million by next year 2020. People still think it's just hype but the truth is it's a supply shock. Just people don't recognize it yet. Sailor said this back in November of 2023. I posted it on my OG account when he was interviewed by Patrick Bet David. He says Bitcoin is on a path to be worth a hundred million dollars. I'll say that again. Bitcoin on a path to be worth 100 million, which means the US dollar will have lost 99.9% of its value over a hundred years. Warren Buffett knows this, Charlie Munger knows this. Michael Sailor, let me know if you agree or disagree with that bullish price prediction. I remember when I shared that I got a lot of love. 146,000 views. 987 hearts and 3 have 311 reposts now also we have Eric Trump, son of our potus says bitcoin is going to a million. He hasn't been shy about it and they put their money where their mouth is. They own one of the larger mining firms now, American Bitcoin. And he says I have never been more bullish on bitcoin in my life. So the Trump family are heavily invested in bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general. Meanwhile, Poly Market shows the odds at only 5% chance of Bitcoin hitting 250,000 this year. Let me know your thoughts on that. And also I more recently asked Chat GBT to model the bitcoin price scenarios and from 2028 to 2040 I specifically chose these dates because every four years we have a having with the next having taken place in 2028 and here's what it generated across conservative base and hyper bitcoinization cases. Starting with the conservative case, which means slow adoption, heavy regulation, no major sovereign acceleration. They show by the year the next having 2028 Bitcoin sitting between 250 and 400,000 which is right below the average stock to flow price for the cycle. But then in 2032 year the next having they have Bitcoin priced between 600 and 900,000. Then the next having a 2036, that's where they show 1.2 to 2 mil and by the year 2043 to 5 million. And I remind you that is the conservative case. Then we go to the base case which is probably the most likely scenario. As ETFs expand globally, sovereign sovereign quietly accumulate as they are and corporate treasuries grow, basically everything stays on track the way it is. Then by 2028 we're right in the money with the stock to flow between 500 and 800,000 per coin. Then by the next having a 2032 between 1.5 and 2.5 mil. Then by 20363 to 6 mil and by the year 2040 between 8 and 15 mil. Quite the gap. And this assumes Bitcoin becomes a recognized macro reserve asset by the mid-2030s. And then of course I got to hit you with the hyper bitcoinization case where multiple nation states adopt reserves full on global hash war, major currency crisis, you know, hyperinflation of the dollar, capital flight event, all of it that could take us between 800,000 and 1.5 mil by the time of the next having cycle, you know, 2028, then 2032, 3 to 5 mil, 2036, 8 to 15 mil and by the year 2040, to $40 million per Bitcoin. Let me know if you agree disagree. And what are your thoughts with some of these bullish price predictions? And can you see $1 million by next year? Yay or nay? Let me know your thoughts and your thesis in the comments. And one bitcoin will always be equivalent to one bitcoin. That's the bigger picture, you know what I mean? 250 would be nice. I think Bitcoin has strong support with the war and everything else going on. Bitcoin's going on. I just bought the dip so I could double my stack action pack. Stacking them sats faster than packing them gats tax let the whole corrupt system collapse. Today is POT episode 2297 I'm your host JV alongside the Fed Chair Nipinator. Happy April 1st, 2026. But anyways next story of the day strategy set to resume buying Bitcoin via STRC after a one week hiatus. That's so unlike the Gigachad. But I see some good omens here. Look at this. 11:11 Bitcoin should be purchased this week with the funds in which they already raised. And that's always a solid omen when you see the 11 11. If you know what I'm saying so yeah, Strategy may buy at least the 1111 Bitcoin this week, but he doesn't make the announcement till he does the SEC report on Monday. So typically Sunday will look forward to the Sailor Tracker, which means the purchase is going to be announced on Monday and we're expecting at least 1111, maybe double considering it took a week off, you know what I mean? On Tuesday, STRC closed at $100 just above which is a good sign. Trading at or above the par give Strategy room to issue new shares, raise fresh capital and deploy the proceeds into money known to man. Bitcoin estimates from STRC Live suggest Strategy raised enough by Tuesday's close the fund the purchase of more than 185 bitcoin with the weekly total rise in over 1111 BTC which is equivalent to 76 million. That's a small drop in the bucket buy for Sailor. I'm anticipating more billion dollar bonds if you know what I'm saying. But nonetheless, the Peter shift from the previous week when STRC traded mostly below par generated no estimates of the Bitcoin purchases as of late March. The company now officially holds 76200099 Bitcoin at an average acquisition price of 75, 694 per coin according to the latest filing. This makes them the largest corporate holder by far because number two used to be Mera at 52000 and they just dumped a ton of their bitcoin. So I believe 21 Jack Mullers is the CEO of they're now the second largest and they're nowhere close to Sailor and pole position of Strategy right now. Bitcoin rebounds the Strategies Buying Window reopens that's right, renewed buying window has coincided with a price bounce for the bitty price action we are pumping here today, but lots of volatility in the market Since Tuesday, Bitcoin climbed more than 5%, briefly nearing 69,300. The move mirrors earlier gains seen during periods when Strategy was actively raising capital through STRC to buy bitcoin. And if you've been paying attention, STRC has been buying up five times the daily issuance just Sailor single handedly. So when they're buying they go big. Also, they recently announced the 2121 raise, another 42 billion in capital to buy more bitcoins. One example came this weekend. In March 15th bitcoin rose more than 10% despite the weak broader risk sentiment over the same period Strategy purchased that 22,000 Bitcoin for one and a half billion. One of the larger purchases. The opposite dynamic emerged afterwards. Bitcoin fell 14% over the next two weeks, roughly aligning with strategies positive purchases as STRC slipped below the $100 par value. Let me know if any of you have any exposure to strC, str, strK, mstr, anything within the strategy ecosystem. March 23rd strategy unveiled. That's what I'm talking about. They even up 44.1 billion capital raising capacity to buy more biddies via the sales of the STRC and other preferred stocks, indicating it would remain a meaningful source of Bitcoin demand in the coming months. This is absolutely massive because their STRC product is crushing it right now. This pays a high yield dividend of 11 and a half percent annually paid out monthly. So those looking to earn a yield could take advantage of that. And as he flexed right here on AX stretch, dividend rate maintained at 11 and a half percent for April 2026. So ask yourself, would you rather collect like 1% from your local banking cartel like JP Morgan, you know, locking it up in like some form of a cd? Maybe you'll get up to a few percent, whatever they're offering in their fractional reserve banking clan, you know what I mean? Or would you rather a nice 11 1/2% dividend yield? You tell me, let me know in the chat. So yeah, Bitcoin iron 80, 000 right now, which is a good upside target, which is practically just above a God candle away. I also want to point out that there's currently a CME futures gap sitting at around 81Gs and oftentimes we will gap higher to close that gap or we'll gap lower. But there's no more CME future gaps below us, which is actually a bullish indicator. Next big story on the day, Bitcoin ETFs post 1.3 billion in March inflows. It feels so good to be back, especially considering it's the first monthly gain of the new year. That's right. We finally had more inflows on a month than outflows and hopefully we can continue this momentum spot. Bitcoin ETS recorded 1.32 billion in March inflows, the first monthly gain of 2026 and the first since October of 2025. You know what's crazy? October was the same month we hit our all time high, which is currently 126 plus. And it was also the same month we started the government shutdown, which ended up being the longest government shutdown on record. And it turned into the October we went from the Most bullish all time high to, you know, so bearish. October, November, December, January, February and March. We're finally starting to flip this around, baby. The inflows were not enough to offset the monthly redemptions of 1.61 billion in January and 207 million in February resulted in roughly 500 million in net outflows for the first quarter. The outflows mounted as bitcoin fell by more than 22% in the first quarter, its second consecutive quarterly decline after a 23% drop in Q4 2025. And here it shows you the monthly spot Bitcoin ETF flow since October when we hit that all time high and then started crashing immediately after. However, March managed to clock inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs despite persistent investor caution with negative sentiment prevailing for most of the quarter. And according to crypto greed and fear index largely hovered below a 20 throughout the month. In fact, we even touched a 4 as the new cycle bottom suggest an extreme fear in the market. Also, analysts point to the res resilience of crypto investment products amid the rise in geopolitical tension linked to the Middle east conflict. And I dare say bitcoin's been holding up quite well in comparison to some of the precious metals as a result of the recent Iran war which we'll dive deeper into here shortly. In line with the weak sentiment, monthly trading volumes and spot Bitcoin ETFs eased to about 79 billion for the month of March compared to 93 billion in February and 87 billion for January. The cumulative inflows reach roughly 56 billion by the end of the quarter. While total assets under management still stood at 87 and a half billion at the quarter's end. And if you don't know now, you know Brosis. Next up, Trump says US leaving Iran soon and what this means for bitcoin and oil. Now, first and foremost, do you believe what we're told and do you think we will be leaving Iran soon? Because on the other side of that coin I hear we're just sending more and more troops there, which is like I've heard this narrative before, especially with Iraq. Yeah, I mean, but anyways, let's give them the benefit of the doubt and entertain it. The prospect of a U. S Military withdrawal from Iran within the next 15 to 20 days is already sending ripples through the global markets. From the price of bitcoin to the coast or cost of a barrel of crude which I think just recently hit all time highs. Investors are scrambling to figure out if we're looking at a genuine de escalation or just a temporary calm before the storm or maybe to mislead thy enemy, you know, who knows? Speaking to reporters, President Trump suggests the current conflict might be nearing its end. Keyword might be hinting that the US Forces could wrap up operations soon. And while the White House is floating two to three week timeline, there's a major catch. Washington isn't leaving until they feel their military objectives are met. Here's what Phil Stewart had to write here on X. This is according to Reuters. U S President Trump said the U S would end its military attack on Iran within two to three weeks and Tehran did not have to make a deal as a prerequisite for the conflict to wind down. The remarks underscored the shifting at the time of contradictory statements from Washington about how the war, now in its fifth week, might end. Will be leaving very soon, Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday, saying the exit could take place within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three now. Asked if successful diplomacy with Iran was a prerequisite for the U S to conclude what it had dubbed Operation Epic Fury, Trump said it was not. He said Iran doesn't have to make a deal. No, he said. No, they don't have to make a deal with me. The White House later said Trump would address the nation to provide an important update on Iran which supposed to be tomorrow. So we'll keep an eye out on the news there and see what kind of announcements are made. The markets reacted almost instantly to the news. Traders and investors saw the stocks tick upwards while the oil prices finally caught a break. And also we saw crypto have a nice little plumpy plump. Interestingly, officials have clarified this isn't about a peace treaty treaty. It's a strategic exit based on how much of Tehran's military capability the US can dismantle before heading for the door. And regarding the volatility, I say expect a lot more extreme volatility. Despite the optimistic talk of leaving, the situation on the ground is far from settled. Reports of ongoing US Strikes suggest the next few days could still be quite violent. Trump has made it clear that he wants to degrade Iran's ability to fight back before pulling the plug, which leaves traders in a difficult spot. So if the exit happens, we'll likely see a massive relief rally. If the military gets bogged down in one last strike, expect volatility to come roaring back like a roaring kitty. So what kind of move do you think Bitcoin will have as a result? And again do you agree with Trump announcing that the US Will leave the Iran war in two to three weeks? Let me know your thoughts. And can you see this turning into a bull case scenario as a result? And I want to circle back to how we kicked off the show today. Bitcoin topping a million dollars by January 2027, less than a year away according to this peer reviewed research. And plan B doubling down on that 500, 000 range for this cycle for bitcoin as per the stock to flow. And sailors saying that bitcoin's not going to zero, it's going to a million. And even says bitcoin's on a path to a hundred million, which means hyperinflation of the dollar is happening and means the dollar will have lost 99.9 of its purchasing power. Trump Jr saying Bitcoin's going to a million. Let me know your thoughts. You know what I mean. And also this peer review is saying $5 million per coin by 2031. Let me know can you see this happening for the bitcoin price? And I remind you the real story is not to get caught up on these price predictions, which we often do, right, because it's entertaining. But let's focus on the supply and the supply shock at hand. Because when you have a finite limited supply, what massive demand ramping up. This is when bitcoin gaps higher and higher. And bitcoin has always made its most parabolic moves within a 10 day window. Can you see that 10 day window happening here soon? And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode Hoddle.