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2300: $2M Bitcoin Liquidity Crisis - Global Supply Is Running Out
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart choice. Make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.
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My name is Mackenzie and I started to go fund me for the adoptive mother of a nonverbal autistic child. The mother had lost her job because she wasn't able to find adequate care for this autistic child. So she really needed some help with living expenses, paying some back bills. So I launched a GoFundMe to help support them during this crisis and we raised about $10,000 within just a couple of months. I think that the surprising thing was by telling a clear story and just like really being very clear about what we needed, we had some really generous donations from people who were really moved by the situation that this family was struggling with.
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GoFundMe is the world's number one fundraising platform trusted by over 200 million people. Start your GoFundMe today at gofundme.com that's gofundme.com gofundme.com this podcast is supported by GoFundMe. People keep quoting 21 million Bitcoin as if it means something. It doesn't. Markets don't price total supply. They price what is actually for sale and what's actually liquid. And that number is collapsing and fast. Here my friends, is what just happened. $2 million bitcoin isn't. Hype is driven by supply disappearing in real time. Here's what happened over the last five weeks. Over 51,000 bitcoin net outflow from the exchanges not traded, not flipp dipped but pulled out of circulation. Even in weeks where the inflows tick slightly positive, the broader trend hasn't changed. Bitcoins are leaving quietly and fewer are replacing them, meaning they're not coming back. Right now bitcoin on exchanges is down to roughly 2.45 million BTC which is near multi year lows. And that is the number that matters, not 21 million what's actually available to buy today because markets don't price the total supply, they price the marginal supply willing to sell at current levels. Now we look at the flow of the new supply entering the system. Mining produces 3,150 bitcoin per week. It's 450 bitcoin per day or 3.125 bitcoin every block, roughly every 10 minutes. That's the entire fresh supply. Also remind you, we recently achieved the milestone of the 20 millionth mine Bitcoin, which means there's less than 1 million Bitcoin to mine between now and and 2140. And at the same time, trading activity hasn't slowed down. The weekly volume is still between 215 and 265 billion. So you have a market where hundreds of billions of dollars are moving every single week. New supply extremely limited. Is existing supply steadily being removed? That's not the equilibrium. That's tightening conditions. That's compression. Now we layer in where the supply is actually going to spot. ETFs now hold 1.28 million Bitcoin, with IBIT Black Rocks being the largest, most successful ETF in existence. They've acquired roughly 800,000 bitcoin in two years, which is mindboggling. You know, Sailor with strategy, it took him since 2020, so now six years to accumulate 762,000 bitcoin for their treasury reserve. Just to show you the comparison, the ETFs like IBIT are doing it in double the speed as Sailor. And strategy has been crazy to begin with. Companies collectively now hold 1.13 million Bitcoin, obviously, with the majority being sailors. Company strategy. Now, many people always forget Satoshi's wallets. There's tens of thousands of them untouched for over a decade, accounting for roughly 1.1 million bitcoin, which have never been moved and most likely will never move. But let's take it a step further. JV. An estimated 3 to 4 million Bitcoin are permanently lost, meaning the keys are gone, the coins are inaccessible, and that supply will never return to the market. Let that sink in. Millions and millions of coins, locked dormant, strategically held, or permanently gone forever. Laura. Not actively trading, not providing liquidity, not contributing to the available supply. So when people repeat 21 million, there's 21 million JV, they're referencing a theoretical maximum. But the market doesn't operate on theory. It operates on what's actually for sale. And that number is far smaller. So we got to zoom out. The scale of the global capital is hard to even comprehend. And I verified all these numbers. Real estate alone is worth roughly $673 trillion. And Bitcoin is demonetizing real estate in real time. Ask Grant Cardone. Now bond markets also globally at another 109 trillion. We also have global equities at 154 trillion, as well as the gold market cap. Contributes roughly 31 trillion. It recently topped out at like 45 trillion when it the all time high before the correction. But even today it's still 31 trillion. That's well over 900 trillion in global assets. Meanwhile, bitcoin still been stuck at 1.3 trillion. A drop in a bucket barely visible in that system. So the shift doesn't need to be dramatic. It doesn't require mass adoption. That's where most people mess up. It only takes a small fraction of that capital reallocating into an asset with a fixed supply by the name of Bitcoin. And when that capital moves, it doesn't meet an open market, it meets a constrained one. It doesn't meet an infinite pool of sellers, it meets a shrinking float. That's the key. And that's where the dynamic changes. Price doesn't move because everyone decides to buy at once. The price moves because there's not enough supply available at the current levels. So the market moves up, it gaps higher, it reprices, it searches for the next level where sellers are willing to part with their coins. That's how Bitcoin has always behaved. In steps, in waves, in sudden repricing events that catch most people off guard. And the conditions for that are forming again right now. Exchange balances are low, new supply minimal. Long term huddlers not selling. Institutional demand is quietly persistent. And even with the miners selling to cover the cost, the net effect is still a drain on that available supply. You feel me? That combination doesn't resolve slowly. It resolves through volatility, through sharp moves, through repricing. So while most people are still the price targets, they are focused on the wrong variable. The real variable to focus on is how much Bitcoin is actually available at each price level. Because that number continues shrinking week by week, quietly. And when the new wave of capital actually arrives, it won't be competing for the 21 million coins. It'll be competing for what's actually left. That, my friend, is the setup. Not speculation, not theory, structure. So the real question isn't whether Bitcoin goes higher, it's how much Bitcoin do you think is actually available for sale right now? Let me know your thoughts in the comments right down below. And now I'm going to show you something that backs all of this data up, even with the minor selling, because the supply is still shrinking. And that my friend, is the key. Welcome everyone to the live stream Happy sat stacking Saturday. This is episode number 2300. I'm your host JV alongside the Fed Chair Nipinator Caping them Nip. I want to give a shout out to Michael Dobin for putting this data together in a post. Here's the latest update on inflows and outflows on the exchanges and you can see the Bitcoin exchange overview. Over the past five weeks, the week ending March 5th there was 47, 700 Bitcoin outflow roughly 235 billion. Then the week ending on March 12th, 24,000 Bitcoin outflow 255 billion. Uh, the week ending 3-19-38,000 Bitcoin outflow 230 billion Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match Limited by state law not available in all states.
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The week ending March 26 23,000 Bitcoin outflow for 215 billion in the week ending April 2,5675 Bitcoin inflow with 265 billion trading volume. So the total over the past five weeks has been 51,325 Bitcoin net outflow leaving the exchanges. That's the big picture. So the bitcoin on exchanges currently sits at 2.453 million bitcoin. So again there's only 2.4 million bitcoin actually available on the exchanges. Still scraping those seven year lows according to Coin Glass and Crypto quant. And the mining supply is locked at only 30150 new bitcoin per week. Again, that's 450 per day. Now Michael Saylor just posted this this morning. It got a lot of love of course, he wrote. Bitcoin has one global consensus is that Bitcoin is digital capital. The four year cycle is dead. Now a lot of analysts still believe the four year cycle is intact. A lot of some of the biggest influencers in the space. He's straight up saying it right here. Four year cycle as we know it. Dead price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine the bitcoin growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving aotrogenic protocol changes. And that's coming directly from the bitcoin alchemist himself. Let me know if you agree with that statement that the four year cycle is dead. Now to further back up this data, Sailor predicted the end game. They plan to buy a hundred billion dollars worth of bitcoin. And he says if I get to seven and a half percent of the network, it's $10 million per coin. And right now they're at roughly 3.6% with their accumulation of 760 000. And he also said we top out at seven and a half percent then down. Could you imagine one institution, or in this case treasury play holding down seven and a half percent of the Bitcoin supply? That's pretty wild and I believe he'll achieve it. He's well on his way to accomplishing that now. Also, as pointed out here, the market is not pricing in strategy. Being on pace to have 2 million Bitscoin by the end of 2027, which is Sailor's goal. You know the market is not pricing in Strategy. We'll have 3 million Bitcoin by 2030 and not pricing in the Bitcoin will be 500000 by 2030. Let me know if you agree with that. That's a one and a half trillion of capital in less than four years. For reference, the world's biggest banks don't even have that in customer deposits. In five year strategy will have more capital than the Mag 7 and Berkshire Hathaway combined. Trillions of permanent capital. The world is totally asleep to this. The world has watched 250 million turn into 50 billion and are not realizing the machine is speeding up, not slowing down. Strategy just had its second best quarter ever for bitcoin acquisition. With the stock trading near nav in the middle of the bitcoin bear market, those who know where the puck is going will inherit incredible riches. This is the greatest wealth creation event in the history of the world. I also want to remind you he recently made another announcement which we covered on the POD of raising an additional $44 billion, half of it coming from STRC, the high yield dividend that pays 11 and a half percent annually as well as MSTR. So that's another collective 42,44 billion worth of Bitcoin purchases incoming by the bitcoin alchemist himself because he's discovered the infinite money glitch. He got a well oiled machine that can just print money out of thin air unlike anything I've ever seen before. You know what I mean? Now we also have institution CEOs like BlackRock's Larry Fink who says Bitcoin is a hedge against the basement and instability with potential to hit 700 000. Now when you have the world's largest asset manager suggesting Bitcoin is going to hit 700000 just with, you know, sovereign wealth funds allocating 2 to 5%, that's a pretty big deal. What happens when they increase those allocations and all of a sudden at seven and a half, 10%, you know what I mean? We're talking multi million dollar Bitcoin prices. And if anyone knows it would be Larry Fink and Michael Saylor because they too collectively hold a massive amount of the bitcoin. You know what I mean? Again, BlackRock holds 800000 ish through their ibit BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and then Sailor has over 760 000. So collectively it's like one and a half million. Bitcoin 2 gentlemen, it's mind boggling. Now Hal Finney is the one who made the first prediction of bitcoin ever hitting 10 million coin and we dove deep into this actually yesterday. So I'm just going to touch upon it here. People thought 10,000 was a pipe dream in the very beginning, but few visionaries like Hal Finney were able to see. Just days after Bitcoin was even launched, he said Bitcoin would get up to $10 million. Which just goes to show you how much potent potential bitcoin has. Now Adam Back who's also an early bitcoin OG and developer, says Hal Finney was just a decade ahead of his curve. And I got to agree with that. Rest in peace. How Finney, you're a legend. Now we also have others who have been suggesting two million dollar bitcoin. One of them is Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, which I covered when she announced it, doubling down on her prediction of 2.4 million bitcoin bull case, you know what I mean? And then Max came over the top and said Kathy says 2.4 million. So just to be cheeky, I raised my target to 2.2 million. And that was the first time Max officially raised the bar on his target. His short term targets 220,000, you know what I mean? Long term 2.2 million. Send it. And also got to give credit to Max because he was one of the few, you know, early bitcoiners who had the vision to see that bitcoin would be you know, $100,000 one day. And he said this back when bitcoin was trading at a couple of hundred dollars. So you know, all due respect to the high priest Max Kaiser, we also have Samson Mound. There's a throwback tweet from June of 2024. He said selling Bitcoin sub 0.1 million which is 100 GS is like Russia selling Alaska for 7.2 million in 1867. You know. And then we also have other asset managers such as Vanek who suggests held global central banks 2% weight meaning Bitcoin could be allocated at a 2% ratio. And in that model they arrive at a 3 million dollar price target. Who suggests 100 million dollar Bitcoin which is, you know, they've even said as much as 1 billion per coin by the year 2038, which is DOL that parody which we did a deep dive into a couple of days ago. But let me know your thoughts. I know you hear these crazy numbers but the focus here is really on available supply, not the 21 million big number we throw around. There's 21 million to go around because the truth is there's 2.4 liquid supply available, meaning roughly 75% of the entire bitcoin supply right now is illiquid. You cannot get your hands on these coins regardless what you want to pay for them. And that my friend is a fact. Today's episode of Bitcoin news alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart choice. Make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliate. Not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy. The four year cycle would mean right now we're in a bear and 2027 is bear and we don't revive the bull until the year of the having which is when supply shock kicks in because of the miners rewards getting cut in half. Right. We're going to go from 450 bitcoin mine per day right now during this current cycle to 200. And what is that? 220 around there. And if it's true and the four year cycle is dead, that means we can continue hitting all time highs throughout now and the time of the next having in 2028. That's the difference. If the four year cycle is intact, then 126 was the high and we're not going any higher until the year the having in 2028. That's the difference. So if anyone's predicting, let's say a new all time high between now before 2028, then they're a firm believer that the four year cycle is dead. You heard it from Sailor in his recent post today. He believes the four year cycle is dead as we know it. And I agree. And the major catalyst for that is the institutions and the corporate treasuries are accumulating Bitcoin at unprecedented levels which never existed in the previous cycle because the institutions such as the ETFs did not go live until January 11th of 2024. So we're in that cycle right now. The having occurred in 2024 and the next having is not till the 2028. 1 million by the end of this year. 10 million by the end of the year 2030. I say send it. I love the bullishness. You're speaking my language. All right, fam. Now let's discuss. Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs. That's right. And the gold ETFs have been very successful. But Bitcoin ETFs are a level up. Let's break it down, check it spot. Bitcoin ETFs could surpass the gold ETFs and total assets under management as investor demand expands beyond traditional digital gold narrative. And this is according to the ETF analyst himself, James Seifert, quoting him here. There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio. He said on the coin stories pod. And speaking of coin stories, shout out to the beautiful Natalie Brunel. He pointed to the Bitcoin role as digital gold, a store of value, a portfolio diversifier and a form of digital capital and property. Adding that the market also views Bitcoin as a growth risk asset. He explained the Bitcoin has all these different ways of being viewed, while gold only has one of those things. Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs. And I agree. 100. I also believe the bitcoin market cap will surpass that of gold. It's happening right now. It's called the great Rotation, the great capitulation. Even Peter Schiff one day is gonna be like, what was I thinking with this gold crap? I should have just been bitty from day one then he would have had to been made fun of. But it is what it is. Mr. Schiff 50 Safeheart also added, there's so many people that could use it. They could be viewing it to put it in their portfolio because they want to bet on a growth and liquidity trade. It can be the hot sauce in a portfolio and you know we're all seeking the best, latest and greatest hot sauce. You got to keep your life spicy. I couldn't agree more. Bitcoin often compared to gold due to the limited supply perceived role as a hedge against monetary debasement. But we all know gold is the poor man's bitcoin. One of my fave Max Kaiser quotes and it's true. U S based Gold E test recorded net outflows almost 3 billion in March. While U S bought Bitcoin ETFs attracted 1.3 billion. Hence the great rotation as Samson Mal coined it. A lot of that money is going to be flowing out of gold in a mass exodus and entering Bitcoin as Bitcoin just has more upside potential. But besides that it also is just superior in any way you can measure superiority, you know what I mean? Gold and Bitcoin have declined over the past 30 days. The largest US gold back ETF GLD recorded 3 billion outflow March 4, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years. And recently even gold spot price had its biggest drawdown in 50 years. You know, but it did also just recently have a rip. So it's a correction now. Data from the bank of International Settlements shows retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall street selling has accelerated over the past four months. Despite the divergence and ETF flows, both assets have moved broadly in tandem in recent weeks, with Bitcoin today above 67,000, down 8% over the past month and gold trading at just shy of 4700 an ounce also down 8% over the past 30 days. And in December of 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst said Historically gold and Bitcoin have taken turns outperforming with gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin takes the lead next. Let me know if you agree or disagree, because everyone's debating price and almost nobody track and supply and that's the only thing that actually matters when it reprices and gaps higher. It won't be because of the hype, it'll be because there's nothing left to buy. So let me know your thoughts surrounding this supply shock $2 million incoming. We only have 2.4 million liquid Bitcoin available on the exchanges. Sailor just proclaim that the four year cycle as we know, is dead. Let me know if you agree with that. And can you see 2 million, 5 million, $10 million per coin as people like Mike Saylor have been projecting? You know what I mean? Let me know your thoughts family, in the comments right down below. Unless Sailor knows something we don't know. I just think he understands math very well. And most of us are when it comes to basic math. And if you understand basic math, you can understand bitcoin as much as Sailor does, in my humble opinion. You know what I mean? It's just math. 2.4 million Bitcoin left for the entire world. How many people are there? There's 8 billion. Ballpark. How much capital is in the world? 900 trillion. How much is the Bitcoin mark cap today? 1.3 trillion. You just run the math and you'll have the same confidence. And faith is fucking Michael Saylor. You know, math doesn't lie. It just is. It's math. It's God's language. You feel me? Bitcoin's God hacking humanity. Which one's the best crypto asset? Well, bitcoin's the best crypto asset. Okay. What's the second best? There is no second best. I'm not saying I'm number one. I'm sorry I lied. I'm number one. 2, 3, 4 and 5. And don't forget to check out BitcoinNewsAlerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q and A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode Hoddle.