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Bitcoin News Alerts | Daily BTC Macro Signal
2303: $5M Bitcoin Begins - Supply Collapse Underway
00:20:12
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever find yourself playing the budgeting game? Well, with your name your price tool from Progressive you can find options that fit your budget and potentially lower your bills. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match limited by state law. Not available in all states.
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Marketing is hard, but I'll tell you a little secret. It doesn't have to be. Let me point something out. You're listening to a podcast right now and it's great. You love the host. You seek it out and download it. You listen to it while driving, working out, cooking, even going to the bathroom. Podcasts are a pretty close companion. And this is a podcast ad. Did I get your attention? You can reach great listeners like yourself with podcast advertising from Libsyn Ads. Choose from hundreds of top podcasts offering host endorsements or run a pre produced ad like this one across thousands of shows. To reach your target audience in their favorite podcasts with Libyn ads, go to Libsyn ads.com that's L I B S Y N ads.com today, $5 million Bitcoin
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is not a prediction. It's what happens when the market runs out of sellers. And that process may have already started, not because of the hype, but because demand is now overwhelming supply at a level we have never seen before. You need to understand what just changed. Bitcoin just broke its own market structure. Not gradually, but right now.
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Not $100,000 bitcoin, not even 500,010x that.
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We're talking 5 million per bitcoin. And the signal isn't coming from hype, it's coming from a machine. Here's what just happened. Over the past month, strategy acquired 46,233 BTC. During the same period, miners produced just 16,200 BTC. So one company literally absorbed nearly three times more Bitcoin than than was actually created.
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That has never happened before.
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And it's happening in real time.
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At the same time.
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Bitcoin ETFs just pulled in $471 million
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in a single day. That's another half a billion. Their strongest inflow in weeks.
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So now we have 16,000 bitcoin being created. That's 450 bitcoin being rewarded to the
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miners each and every day.
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3.125 every block, roughly 10 minutes.
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That's 46,000 bitcoin being absorbed by one entity. Again, three times the amount of the daily issuance. Also Hundreds of millions in daily ETF demand. That's not a market, that's supply being drained in real time.
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You know, because for most of Bitcoin's
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history, supply always had a release valve. The miners sold new coins, traders rotated liquidity. The system refilled itself. That system just broke. And something new is replacing it. A recursive accumulation engine strategy isn't just buying Bitcoin. It's converting capital into Bitcoin. Then using that Bitcoin to justify raising more capital to buy even more Bitcoin. Many refer to it as the infinite money glitch. And that's why Sailor is now the Bitcoin Alchemist. Over and over again, rinse and repeat. So right now, Strategy officially holds 766,970 Bitcoin. Their target trajectory is 2 million Bitcoin. That's 10% of the circulating supply and 35amplification through preferred issuance. Balance sheet expands as Bitcoin price rises. That's the key. That's the blueprint. And as Bitcoin appreciates, their reserve value increases. Right now they have over 50 billion on the balance sheet. That'll be back above 100 billion when Bitcoin returns to all time highs. That allows them to issue more preferred, which buys more Bitcoin, which increases reserves again, which unlocks even more buying power. It's an endless loop. And it compounds. It doesn't stop. Even under conservative consumption, this model projects Strategy growing from 766,000 Bitcoin to over 2 million BTC. Nearly 10% of the entire Bitcoin supply which will ever exist in the hands of a single entity. That's not just accumulation, that's supply capture. The coins don't come back. They are gone forever, Laura. And there aren't enough left to replace them. Right now the liquid supply is estimated to be 2 million. That's all you can get right now. So now combine that with everything else happening. We have ETFs, absorbing supply weekly, corporations building Bitcoin treasuries. There's now over 190 of them.
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Also institutions allocating long term capital. And for the first time ever, the man is structurally exceeding the new supply. Not temporarily, but systemically. This is the part most people are missing. They're still thinking about Bitcoin like a market. But markets require liquidity. And liquidity quickly disappearing. Because Bitcoin doesn't trade on total supply. It trades on available supply. And the available supply is, is collapsing. More than 20 million Bitcoin have already been mined. But most of them not for sale. Like I said, there's roughly 2 million liquid Bitcoin available right now for sale on the exchanges. Millions are lost and millions are held by the long term holders. For example, Satoshi has 1.1 million which have never moved, probably never will. And now millions more are being absorbed by systems that are never designed to unwind. This is why price models are start to break. Because they assume supply is accessible.
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It isn't anymore.
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And if we zoom out, Bitcoin is still only $1.3 trillion asset. Let that sink in. That's less than 2% of global assets. Meanwhile, global real estate exceeds $600 trillion. Global bonds exceed 100 trillion. Global equities exceed 150 trillion. And gold is sitting at roughly a 30 trillion market cap. It's all going to zero against Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't need all of that capital of course. Needs a fraction to move the needle. And when that capital enters a system where supply is already being outpaced, the price doesn't rise gradually, it jumps violently. As Samson Mal described a violent upheaval. You feel me? Because price doesn't just move based on how much Bitcoin exists. It moves based on how much Bitcoin is actually available.
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And that number is shrinking faster than anyone expected. This is where the next phase begins
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with we go from 100,000 to 200,000
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Omega candle, send it 200,000 to 500,000. 500 GS to 1 million.
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And then from 1 million to 2 million per Bitcoin.
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There's no mechanism to stop it.
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$5 million per Bitcoin. Not because of hype, not because of speculation. But because the system itself can no longer produce enough Bitcoin to satisfy demand.
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This isn't just a supply shock. It is a structural imbalance. A point where the market loses its ability to function normally. Because once demand permanently exceeds the new supply, there is no longer equilibrium. Only repricing $5 million Bitcoin isn't a prediction. This is an outcome. The real question isn't whether Bitcoin demand increases. So ask yourself what happens when there are no sellers left and the market still needs Bitcoin anyway? Who are you buying from? That, my friend, is the million dollar question. So let me know your thoughts in the comments. Right down below.
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Today is pot. Episode 2 303. I'm your host JV.
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It's April 7th, 2026 and check this out. Here's the proof. Year to date, 2026 we have acquired 2.2x the natural supply of Bitcoin and achieved bitcoin yield of 3.7%, generating a bitcoin gain of 24, 675 bitcoin which is roughly $1.7 billion.
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart choice. Make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy,
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you know, in USD. And this is a flex earlier from Strategy which got reposted from Michael Sailor. So massive, you know, accumulation unlike anything we've ever witnessed. And this is one corporation. What happens when the other 190 start following in Sailor's footsteps and more and more are being birthed?
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You know, now also check this out, a headline here today. Bitcoin may hit 110000 a strategy absorbs nearly the bitcoin supply. I want to dive a little deeper into this unprecedented accumulation going on because everyone's focused on the price. Everyone is focused on, you know, of course the demand, but it's the supply that's the underlying factor here. So bitcoin trading within a bare flag pattern that projects a breakdown towards the sub 50,000 area or roughly 30% below current levels. However, Michael Sailor strategy can spoil the bears plants. Take that Peter shift. Normally a bear flag remains a bearish continuation pattern because there's not enough demand to overcome the broader downtrend. But in the bitcoin case, strategy has taken supply off the market faster than the miners can replace it. This is what I'm trying to say. Since March 2 strategies Bitcoin holdings have risen 46,233 BTC while the miners have produced only 16,200 Bitcoin over that same period, meaning it has absorbed nearly thrice the new supply. And here you can see how unprecedented this accumulation is from Strategy over time since they were the first public company
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to put the biddy on the balance sheet.
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That was all the way back in 2020.
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Now look at them today.
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It's going up exponentially.
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It's amazing.
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Much of the demand has come through STRC Strategies variable rate prefer stock. When STRC held near above its hundred dollar per value, Strategy kept issuing shares accumulating more bitcoin. For instance, last week strategy raised 102 million through STRC sales help funding a Bitcoin purchase worth over 330 million. The Bitcoin price has since jumped 6.6% since. During March 9th through the 13th, STRC raised about 776 million, enough to buy another 11,000 Bitcoin. While Bitcoin rose more than 7% even
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as the S&P fell 1.6%.
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The same period saw Bitcoin price rising
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over 10 and a half percent.
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But when STRC slipped below par, which was mid March, that's when the issuance slowed.
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Earlier below par episodes had coinc or
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coincided with 25 to 40% pullbacks, including
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a nearly 40% drop over three weeks as a January pause. Now a little deeper into the bare flag failure, setting the stage for a rally back above 100,000, 110 to be precise.
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According to the charts here, Bitcoin remains
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inside the bare flag after the sharp decline. But the pattern would begin to fail if price breaks above the upper trend line. Sitting in the mid-70s. And right now we just touched 70 the other day. We're very close. We're half a God candle away from reclaiming 75, which would basically invalidate this bear flag, you know, scenario. That breakout would invalidate the immediate bearish continuation setup and shift focus to the bullish measured move target of $110,000. Now we're talking. Let's get back to price discovery. A similar pattern failure occurred near Bitcoin's 2018 bottom. A rising wedge pattern led to a breakout instead of a breakdown. Another factor supporting the upside case is Bitcoin's position near the 200 week simple moving average in 2018. Bitcoin bottomed out near this level and rose by roughly 2000% afterwards. Also like to point out Sailor recently tweeted the four year cycle is dead again. He said the four year cycle as we know it is dead, finito, gone. Which would mean new all time highs incoming this year. And that means we're in a bull year, not a year. As the bears are projecting, things get worse and worse and we don't resurrect the bitcoin price to an all time high until the next year, the having which isn't till 2028. But sailor saying four year cycles, we know it is dead. Things are different, right? The supply is disappearing and fast. And that's due to companies like Sailor Black Rocks, ibit, you know, Bitcoin ETF and many others mass accumulating right now. But don't take my word for it, these are the facts. Bitcoin ETF inflows hit another 471 million, their highest since late February. So the inflows continue. This is very significant for the price action. Naturally, it renewed the pace of the inflows. The largest flows in weeks. A spotty test posted almost a half a billion of inflows just on Monday. The largest daily inflow since February 25th when funds attracted 57 million.
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Black Rock's eyebit leads the inflows at 182 million. And right now they control roughly 800000 Bitcoin. Even more than strategy. So just two companies, we have strategy and we have BlackRock. Collectively they hold 1.5 million Bitcoin. Of course through their custodian, they're not doing self custody like Fidelity. Fidelity is one of the only ETF issuers who are doing that. But nonetheless, that's a massive amount of the bitcoin supply being held by two companies, SL institutions. Ibit led the inflows with 182 million, followed by fidelity wise Bitcoin origin with 147 million. We also have ARC21 with 119 million, marking the largest daily inflow since July 10th of 2025. So this is a big deal because when we have massive inflows from the ETFs, like billions of dollars flowing in, they're just eating up all the available bitcoin. And when we have multiple ETF issuers plus strategy, all trying to get the, you know, daily issuance, there's only so much to go around, naturally. And that's what's going to spark the supply shock which we're witnessing right now. Because the available Bitcoin on the exchanges
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is at a low we ain't seen
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in a very long time. And look at a young Kathy Wood right here. I want to touch upon this because
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what we have Witnessed since the ETFs have gone live, the Bitcoin ETFs, that
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is, it was all the way back in January, is January 11th, the official
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launch date of 2024. Anytime we have massive inflows like billions
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of dollars flowing into the etfs, the
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price action reacts accordingly.
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And whenever we have substantial outflows, we
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witness price corrections like we have seen since the fourth quarter of 2025. That was the same week the government shutdown was. Same week we hit the all time high. And it's been all downhill since. We're finally running out of supply as the demand continues on pace. And, and as long as this pace continues, it's going to lead to gapping up of the bitcoin price action. That's how the price action reacts when we run out of supply. And that's what we're witnessing right now.
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And I want you to be aware
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of what's actually going on. If you think this stops here, I want you to actually listen to this model right here.
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This was pointed out by Adam Livingston
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who writes MSTR stock price is going to absolutely explode over the next decade.
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Today's episode of Bitcoin News Alerts is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy and grow.
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Grotesque and he shares Modeling strategy Share price using the Bitcoin Power Law model and the CEBE framework. But let me just give you some of the highlights of what's going on right now.
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At the current rate of accumulation, Sailor will have 2 million Bitcoin by 2034. However, I think he'll achieve this a lot faster because he's going to continue to raise as much money as humanly possible through his vehicles such as strc strk. The entire, you know, well tuned ecosystem Strategy goes from 766,000 Bitcoin to roughly 2 million in this model, which is a 2.6x increase in Bitcoin holdings by maintaining the same amplification they're already running.
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Right?
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Every time Bitcoin appreciates reserve value rises, a reserve value rises strategy issues more preferred while keeping amplification at target that preferred buys buy more Bitcoin and you already know the rest of the name of the game. But it just goes to show you what what's happening. Some will realize it now and position themselves accordingly and others won't recognize it until Sailor already has 10% of the supply and Bitcoin's trading at millions of dollars per coin. But again, great breakdown Strategy Power Law times the CBE which shows you the projection over the years and how much Bitcoin is being accumulated right now. Shout out Adam Livingston now let's entertain this another headline. Bitcoin could reach a million by 2027, which would mean next year and 5 million per coin by 2031 according to
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a new peer reviewed study. Let's break this one down.
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Key Takeaways this research was just published
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in the Journal of Risk and Financial
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Management suggesting these targets I just outlined. The model is built around Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply and increasing institutional accumulation, higher withdrawal rates of 2000 Bitcoin per
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day can push Bitcoin towards 2 million by late next year and 5 million
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per coin by 2031.
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And again Sailor is single handedly taken about 2000 Bitcoin per day out of the bitcoin ecosystem when there's only 450 being mined daily right now. So let all that, you know, sink in.
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So bitcoin reaching seven figure territory within
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the next few years has long been a popular narrative in these markets. But now it's backed by peer reviewed academic paper published by the Journal of Risk and Financial Management and modeling that thesis for forecast in the biddy price 1 million next year and 2 million the year later the year. The having in 2028 and then 5 million per coin by 2031. But note that's under high demand scenarios. But I do believe we're in high demand and limited supply more so than we have ever seen in the past. So the research titled the supply demand framework for the Bitcoin price forecasting it was authored by Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter and focuses on the Bitcoin fixed supply interacting with the rise in institutional demand. Study argues Bitcoin's unique monetary structure capped by supply combined with growing accumulation creates conditions for exponential price growth when liquidity declines. That's the key. Liquidity declines and precisely. My master thesis I'm sharing with you here today and it breaks it down here. A supply demand framework for Bitcoin price forecasting. The model is based on liquidity drain and institutional demand framework developed in the study uses demand equilibrium modeling calibrated to the bitcoin having cycles, long term huddler behavior and institutional adoption trends. Researchers focus on withdrawals from liquid supply meaning Bitcoin moved into long term custody such as the ETFs a corporate treasuries which we're witnessing as well as the sovereign reserves as well as coal storage. The model suggests that withdrawals exceeding a th000 bitcoin per day could meaningfully reduce circulating liquidity. And like I said Sailor single handedly scooping up 2,000, sometimes as much as 5,000 bitcoin per day which is five times a daily issuance. Can you say supply shock? All we have to do is wait some time and just leave the current, you know, buys where they're at supply
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very limited and disappearing in real time. Right? Numbers don't lie. Check the scoreboard. So it's ultimately saying in the highest demand scenario the model forecasts 1 million per coin next year followed by 2 million by late 2027 before the having a 2028 and 5 million by early 2020 31. Also institutional accumulation driving supply shock thesis. And I'm not going to dive any deeper here because I've been preaching supply shock for quite some time. That's my master thesis. And also we have bitcoin taken over gold as the superior store of value. Gold market cap today is over $30 trillion. Bitcoin is a drop in the bucket. It's literally 1.3 trillion by the time Bitcoin's market cap surpasses gold. With the great rotation as Samson calls it, we can see a multi million dollar bitcoin price. And the kicker.
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Nobody can stop it.
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You feel me? You know what I mean? So let me know your thoughts with some of the bullish thesis I shared with you today. Can you see $5 million per bitcoin happening? Not because it's a prediction, but because the math doesn't lie. Very limited amount of Bitcoin available right now. Massive demand as companies like Strategy and IBIT from Blackrock continue accumulating massive amounts
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of the daily issuance.
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You know what I mean? Let me know your thoughts. Fam. Up to 500x leverage.
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She's Louise.
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FYI fam. Never trade with 100x leverage, let alone 500x leverage, let alone 10x leverage. It's pretty crazy. You want to know who the winner is going to be? The exchanges and the market makers. Because you're guaranteed to get wiped out. Just saying. And don't forget to check out bitcoinnewsalerts.net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live stream along with the Q A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. Hodl.